Pandemonium Reigns
Episode 168 - UF/UT Preview
[MUSIC] Pandemonium, Reigns. >> Pandemonium, Reigns podcast. What is up? Well, here we are in the back end of Gator Hater Week. The not-and-error of all-not-matt rituals for all fans of the last roughly 20 years. I mean, just a quick aside before I really get into previewing the game a little bit. If you don't have not-mares still about the way the game was lost in '06, about the way the game was lost before their run. When the ball was in and out of the receivers hands immediately in the end zone for, and rule a touchdown for the Gators, then one hand, you might be young, you might be lucky, and not have those core not-mares. On the other hand, you might be like me. And you might dread this game like 364 days out of every year. All that aside, here we are. The Vols are 15 to 16 point favorites. And well, again, terrifying things, things that bring terror and not-mare-fuel especially, especially if you're like me, trying to recover from just the biggest WTH performance of probably the Hoppel era. And another big performance in that category was last year in Gainesville. So, all the good stuff, all the dread, all the anxiety. It just, it lines back up whether you're 15, 16 point favorites or not. Whether all indications, especially the indications prior to last Saturday, were Vols big win coming against the Gators, it doesn't matter. It goes out the window and it just, you know, you throw it out the window, you lot it on fire, you pour gas on that fire when you are coming off of a performance like that. Again, I'm going to stick with this in Gainesville, Northwest, which is what that was on Saturday. But here we are, you know, we can't dance around anymore, we can't avoid it. It is Saturday is coming, Saturday at 7 p.m. is coming. You know, checkered new one under the lots. We don't usually get this set up for Florida. Usually it was, you know, even in the midst of a heck of a run, the run that Florida is kind of still on against Tennessee. It's not ended because of 2016 and 2022 just yet. I think the only way you end that is to not go and run to match theirs. That would be asking too much probably. But, you know, this game was the CBS 330 and you'd have Danielson driving you crazy, especially me. And then you'd have Lundquist and Co in the real heat of the tear stretch for this series doing the rest. And, you know, we know all the players that have come through Florida and have given Tennessee not mirrors. And again, it was usually taking place at 330 on CBS. But here we are, checkered new one under the lots. I think the last time that happened, not to add any more battered ball fuel was Ole Miss in 2021, where we actually had a game kick off under the lots with new and checkered and just all the, again, all the sauce. You know, I think it's been that long since we had that set up because we don't check or anyone all the time. We usually, you know, name it before the season or before the schedules fully decided all those things. You know, we lay this out and that's what we're doing. You know, we're looking to create that environment again. And I just hope that if anyone's groggy, if anyone's still feeling Saturday, it's only the fans and that all the whiskers, all the indicators coming out of practice after a loss that Tennessee took are true. And that Tennessee shows up angry, flying around, wrecking shop, wrecking everything for the Gators from, you know, from the opening kick. I mean, it's probably going to be a touch back, but, you know, go do something because you have to respond coming off of what you're coming off of. If you can't tell, you know, I'm uneasy. I'm uneasy about this game. I'm uneasy about being a favorite of that much. I don't care about any of the metrics or the stats or the analytics because of this series. And also on a more micro scale, you know, let's look at it two ways. Florida against the run. This year, they've been horrific against the run. I mean, even Mississippi state in a game that they were down early, that they were trying to call their way back into. They even ran the ball against Florida, right? Everyone's ran on Florida. It's happened. It was a bona fide weakness. And then Saturday happens. And, you know, I don't think UCF is that great of a program. I don't think Gus Melzon's that great of a coach if he's even a great coach. And they can't run the ball. Their offensive line looks like poo poo. And the offense goes out the window. They can't run the ball, then flip it to our side of the, you know, Saturday's events. Arkansas can't defend the pass. Arkansas has been turning the ball over like crazy. All the trends that were going against Arkansas up until the game picked off in Fayetteville. And, you know, Tennessee couldn't protect Nico to give Tom to exploit anything in Arkansas's task defense. They had the recipe and Tennessee didn't adapt or go to the 12 personnel look that had worked against other, you know, three down line or odd front situations that they didn't do that. So Tennessee wasn't able to exploit those things against Arkansas, wasn't able to force turnovers, which was not good, you know, and all those things happened. And those games played out the way they did with Florida winning as a home underdog against UCF. Which again, I'm obviously selling a little bit on UCF here. I'm not blown away by that. That's a game that Florida should win. Favorite underdog doesn't matter. Florida should win that game and the only, the only thing is that we didn't, we don't know what Florida is other than inconsistent. And then again, Tennessee doing what they did in Fayetteville, you know, nothing makes me feel good. Nothing gives me a good read. I'm asking for, for the energy for the volume dial for the excitement to be at 11 plus come kick off. You know, I'm, I guess I'm glad that this game is a 7 p.m. deal because you'll get the very best of dealing. You'll get fans that have tailgated for 12 hours leading up to this thing. I mean, you know, I've been to three Florida games, Tennessee Florida games in my time and tailgated for one of those and it was one of the best, most fun days ever. I mean, so you're going to have that, that boiling up to, to Saturday night. And a lot of people are not going to be thinking about Arkansas the week before they're going to be thinking about ending the Gators and, and potentially ending Billy Napier. If Tennessee could find a way to do what we've talked about all along and well really all summer long, but bottle up from Miami, murdering Florida at home till now. And obviously, Florida is on a two game win streak and that is what it is. But you know, a chance to end Billy Napier. If you do what you should be capable of doing, which is building off of the offense that Hopples had at Tennessee, getting back to it, obviously Saturday, whatever, by whatever means necessary, I don't care if you run 14 trick plays, I don't care if you possess the ball for 15 minutes of the 60, if it's a, if the regular regulation decision. I don't care whatever it takes, how does Tennessee get back to the offense that that we've, that we've gone accustomed to all those things, you know, Dan and I were begging for the tempo. I'm not understanding personally how it's how it's vanished. If it is, if the tempo has been sacrificed to help your defense, I think you finally now have the depth to rotate the bodies. I don't care if you're rotating four to six linebackers. I don't care if you're rotating, you know, an entire shift of second secondary players. We know the depth situation on the, at the defensive line level. So do it by any means necessary. Again, I don't care if you, if the, if the plays are being drawn up from Hopples microphone to Niko's earpiece, I don't care what it takes. The offense has to get back. I think the primary recipe in that is through the tempo while I'm on the offense real quick, I want to touch on two things at least. The injury report is one of them and I'll get to Florida side of this in a moment. Again, I'm going to start with Tennessee here because there's a couple of things that, that really get me on this, brew, squirrel, and Dante Thorpe. Brew and squirrel listed as probable, that could mean that, yeah, they're going to start, that could mean that we won't see them to the ball season. We know how this goes, especially in Knoxville. That really criticizing it, it just is what it is. And again, a position where we think we've got depth to, to bring guys in and out, to do what we need to do to make plays. So brew, squirrel listed as probable, Dante Thornton listed as questionable. I mean, Dante Thornton was in until the very last moment of that game. I don't recall or know, and I guess that's part of it when you see squirrel. I mean, just being completely honest, I thought squirrel broke his collarbone on the play where he kind of got mashed into the ground. He's obviously not been his whole typical self, which is probably a perfect storm of the tempo being down. The protection being horrific and, and like I talked about in the, the post arkansas episode was the route tree being what it is. I mean, it is not the quick game anymore. It is not nearly as many vertical shots and he had a great chance at one if Nico could have been a little bit more accurate with that ball on Saturday night, squirrels had a tough time getting going. I don't think squirrel, Saturday, excuse me, is a squirrel game opportunity. I do think it's a Bruin McQuarley and a Dante Thornton opportunity though, because Dante has, he's made us look if, if, if Dante Thornton has not made you forget about wanting more from him in 2022 yet, then tell me what he needs to do. And don't say he needs to be Jalen Hyde 2022 because until further notice, that's going to be a, it was already a special category for a special player quarterback and receiver offensive line as well. But that's getting to be like in the unattainable section of things rather than an expect anything you could ever expect me one to do anytime soon because Hyatt was terrific hooker was so accurate and was willing to take hits and throw and I'm not saying Nico is unwilling but he does need to, to me put the ball in the air a lot more blast play notwithstanding in Arkansas. But again, Thornton has made me forget about all those feelings of wanting him to bring the ball in when it's done his way, wanting him to get separation, he's done all those things for me. I mean, Thornton is earning a lot of that recognition that he, that he garnered in the, in the off-season for 2023. So really hope that, that he's able, you know, I think it's a hand, I think it's a finger or, you know, fingers, injury, I hope he's okay because his, his mentality, his physicality, like Dan asked for, I want to see him trucking people, I want to see him get going and, and again, I don't care if it's a screen, I don't care if it's hitch, I don't care if it's a, you know, skinny post, get brew going, make defenders again, make that business decision of Oakcrap, that's a big dude, moving as fast as we've seen him move in college. And also let's, I mean, let's acknowledge the fact that brew has hurt Florida two years running, long touchdown down the left sideline last year, I believe, and again, 2022 pushed for 100 yards in that game, receiving, needing to do those things, need this to be a room of cool game. And again, I think a Dante Thornton game, you know, Chris Brazel, I'm not saying he's been a, I'm not going to say he's been a disappointed yet, but I don't, I'm more so sticking with, I don't understand our rotations. I don't understand the usage, the route tree, all those things, somebody's got to break out in a game like this, it could be a Mike Matthews moment, it certainly could be a Chas Nimrod moment because every time it's like every time he steps on the field, he gets targets, he's coming, he's one that is coming across the middle. And usually if it comes his way, it's not going to hit the ground if it's an accurate ball. He's, he's been reliable. I think he's got sneaky speed, if not outright really good speed. And all those are things that I think are going to be needed, even if this is a game that you expect to win, even if this is a game where Vegas has got you by 15, which feels like such a trappy, trappy spot, the more and more I think about it as we go. I believe, no, the, the last thing for me on this injury report deal is what happened to Prasenasen late in that game. You know, his injury, the way he went down looked really bad, really uncomfortable, and he's not even on this report. You know, to clarify, Jordan Thomas towards ACL in, in fall practice, we know he's out for the year. He's on the report as out. Midwood Spillman is out, which I don't know what happened there either, but how is Prasen Essen not on this injury report? I don't understand that. Not a great development if, if he does miss any time because he's been very valuable. He's got a great motor, yet again, you know, a lot of these guys on the defensive line do that's, that's part of what makes them as dangerous and as great as they are. So we're going to need Prasen Essen on Saturday. We're certainly going to need him as we go forward from here, but I don't, you know, and it's a good thing that he's not listed as out or, again, probable kid made, he's probable to play in 2026 or something with, with the way Hop Lancers, these things. But going to need him, hope he's good to go looked like a really uncomfortable situation when he kind of pinned his, his, his lower part of his leg and landed on it. Maybe someone else landed on him. It just did not look fun, but again, I think he was back in the game at the end. I didn't get it because it looked painful. I don't think it was one of the, one of our fake injuries by any means because it looked really uncomfortable and, you know, room for him. He's been such a great program guy. Need him is another major factor there. Real quick, because I talked about, you know, as I've continued to talk about the receivers, the routes, the usage, all these things, I want to talk about one of Florida's best weapons, Eugene Wilson, Heart Tennessee, I believe is a true freshman last year in Gainesville. He is, he's, he's one of, as their receivers go, you know, they've made it work with Badger, they've made it work with Dyke this year and again, it's not like they're the most explosive version of themselves or in the last, even, you know, down years that they've had. They're not themselves, but Eugene Wilson is a legitimate bonafide weapon, again, hurt Tennessee last year. I think he's just a sophomore. He's also not on their injury report. That means he's that, you know, again, kind of by the rules should mean he's playing Saturday. Maybe, maybe these guys that are probable questionable that we, like in the Boston East in case, thought he'd be on the list, he's not. Maybe that means they suit up, they go through warm-ups, Sartre coach, not willing or ready to give it a go. That could happen, but I expect Eugene Wilson to play because again, he's not on the list and Florida's got quite a longer list of players than Tennessee's got that are for sure. They've got eight to 10 guys here that are out and they've got five guys that are listening and questionable, which is again, I mean, nothing kind of sets up well for Florida in this game. The only thing that sets up well for Florida is how Tennessee played on Saturday. Nothing else really sets up well for Florida other than Saturday and then the extended history of the series. But Eugene Wilson's a guy that changes things for Florida because I mean, again, if they're getting badger to work out at receiver, if they're getting dyke to make plays at receiver, that puts them in the realm of potentially having three weapons that can really hurt you, you know, and the way they did it last year was like Dan talked about like we've all again had nightmares about for, you know, over a year now, nickel and dime, we'll take three, four, five, six yards at a time, we're going to take seven to eight minutes off the clock no matter, you know, anytime we possess the ball, all of those things and it's amplified now with the clock not stopping on first nouns, yada yada, not going back to it, but it's all amplified now with the more NFL style rules that are in place. But Eugene Wilson, just a weapon for Florida to toss at Tennessee, we also know just kind of while we're on their offense, we also know that it's going to be like a every two series goes to Mertz every up every series after that goes to lagway two one two one two one. I've heard Gators guys complain about the way they do it, you know, a two quarterback system never works for me. It is never something I want to see my school do for under any circumstances. I mean, if you want to throw a wildcat in there as a play option here and there if you know, like think back to the latter period days when you'd have John Jennings in as kind of a wildcat guy or you know, whatever, that's fine. You know, that's that falls for me more in the trick play or the gimmick or whatever category than two quarterbacks, obviously, but never going to be a fan of a two quarterback system. You know, Florida's done weird things a quarterback before, again, just against Tennessee, we think about all the backups that have played against Tennessee in this series and have hurt us, you know. So I'm not saying that that it can't work or that that it's going to be the thing that is too much for Florida to overcome on Saturday. I'm not saying that. What I am saying is just expect two for Mertz, one for lagway rep rent, repeat, play on, play on. And again, one thing I have heard before you guys complain about is kind of the usage that the times in which they let lagway run. Now he's a guy that's only taking like two or three sacks on the year. I mean, look, he's he's a monster of a dude, you know, 240 pounds, six, three, obviously a freshman, obviously a highly regarded freshman. I mean, he is he is a highly regarded freshman. He's going to be a great player and college, especially again, with that size with the ability to throw the ball a mile and that 239 pounds, just my gosh, that's an unreal frame to come in with. He's only going to get bigger, faster and stronger for the foreseeable future. But you know, the complaints are some of the times in which they do run him. I was saying a moment ago before I kind of got into his build that he's only grand for I think it was 49 yards. This is great, great content. Yeah, 19 attempts, 49 yards. He's only taking three sacks or yeah, yeah, two sacks, excuse me, but only 49 rush yards on the season. Do not let him come in and be singleton or or, you know, again, don't let him come in and do what Arkansas did with with the mobile quarterback with Taylor Greene with singleton there at the end, the latter part of the game, you've got to keep him boxed in. All the same rules apply the same rules apply for Mertz because that's part of his game as well. He can move. He can he can. He's not going to again, he's not going to rush for a hundred yards in a game. He's not going to do anything like that, but he can absolutely give himself different windows, different platforms to throw off of because again, he does have that ability. He's got all the experience in the world because he's like a 90 year senior. He's played in the two best conferences in the sport. You know, just for example, Mertz is ran for 45 this 45 this year. So when you combine the two, they're under a hundred yards. So that means they don't need to really be above 10 to 20 yards combined on the game. They need to be boxed in. Everything needs to be kept, line of scrimmage and behind from our defensive perspective. When you consider that these dudes have not even combined to break a hundred yards rushing this year. And when you also combine them, they've taken again, that's where I was getting confused a moment ago. Mertz has taken three sacks, lagways taken two. So they've not given up a lot of sacks, but you know, I don't put much on that because Tennessee's not giving up many sacks either. This offensive line is not done what it's supposed to do. So I'm not building anything really off of that. It's still the Montreal Johnson Show in the rushing department of Florida. We know that ETN's and Athens is probably being influenced negatively by the behavior and the discipline and lack thereof and Athens right now, but you know, it's the Montreal Johnson Show 58 for 288 and even five yards per carry on the year for touchdowns. And again, in Eugene Wilson's absence, it's been Shamir Dike. It's been Elijah Badger. And again, now they potentially get Eugene Wilson back. And that's just something else that Tennessee is going to have to keep in front of them. I think they, you know, going into what I'd like to see a little bit more again, you know, obviously I'm begging for tempo. I'm begging for signs of life. I don't need, I mean, I want, but I don't need 55 points plus from Tennessee on Saturday. And I don't think you buy any means need that to beat this Florida team. What I need is signs of life. I need, again, if it's a, if it's a zero yard play, if it's a positive play, if it's a 45 yard play, I don't care, get the tempo cranked up, make Florida content with that. You know, we did that and we've, we've done it all throughout the Hopplera up until really odd points in time when it seems like you really need to do it. Bring that back. What I would really like to see as well is some of the same things we asked for Dan and I, especially Dan, leading in Arkansas, you know, be aggressive, show different looks defensively. Don't just sit back and, you know, get caught up in your same old, same old schemes and have dinky, dunky plays coming across the middle, confusing your linebackers and look, you know, that, that was already concerned from last year in the way that Florida scheme just to death. Arkansas did it to an extent and I'm not asking, not going back and retroactively asking for more from the defense from, from last Saturday. I'm just saying you better contain Florida. You better not let them do the dinky, dunky things. Even if they possess the ball for 45 minutes of this game, don't let it result in seven points, six points, keep them refilled goals, keep them to long field goals. They've only attempted like five field goals on the year. So, uh, and I know it's not a, it's not like Arkansas's kicking game where that was supposed to be a weakness and we didn't see them miss a kick and the kicker got injured doing it was a horrible situation, but test their kicking game, test this offensive line because it's also not a vintage Florida offensive line. It's not a great offensive line by any means. It's serviceable. It's probably better than yours is playing right now. Put them through the fire on Saturday, bring it from every angle, have Pierce making Mertz making lag way see ghosts doing doing, doing to those guys, but you have to say both because of what they do doing to those guys, what Arkansas did to Nico early on Saturday, not a week ago, making them see ghosts continuing to be fierce, strong in the run game, especially defensively because you've been really good at that, um, you know, this is not a Florida team that's great on third down, get them into third and five plus, make it tough, do not give it situations where they can just kind of misdirection you and fall for a yard or three here and there when they need it to keep the ball moving because that was just kind of the thing of the game last year, they kept themselves in the most desirable manageable situations last year, uh, especially in that first half, I know it was, it was kind of a mess for both teams in the second half a bit, but obviously they did more than enough to win the game and all things notwithstanding, they, they, they came out of there and, and did what they do in the series, so prevent that at all costs, again, show me signs of life offensively, that's what I need to see. All right, had to reset just a little bit because, uh, you know, all of the nightmare sauce and, uh, the nightmare fuel that, that I led with, you know, all the where for the stands, what they do, et cetera, just got me going, got me ranting, had to do a bit of a reset. Uh, I've laid out what I want to see Tennessee do, you know, give me the signs of life, give me them, give me the tempo, give me the run game, you know, if there's anyone I trust on Saturday, it's Dylan Sampson. The question of course will be, can we create, can we create the gaps for him to get through, can we create the avenues for him to get his usual, what, I mean, 80 to what his range would be like at 75 to 150 yards, I mean, literally, you know, that's what he's been good for. Uh, is it, will it be possible for Tennessee to rotate guys on Saturday because I do think it would not be ideal for him to come off the, the, the workhorse load that you gave him in favor of, I don't think you want to do that time and time again, especially when your stretch is Arkansas physical game that you lost Florida series that it's been, not Marishes has been, and then like Alabama, Kentucky, I don't think you want to do those things and continue giving him those 20 carry performances. I think you have to find ways to, uh, to, you know, again, to rotate guys, do what you need to do to give him some fresh, you know, give him moments to catch his breath, to rest his legs. I think the past game certainly has to pick up, uh, and, and, you know, just like we're, we're asking our offense to relieve our defense and we're, we're not asking for more from this defense. We're, we're asking for the offense to carry their freaking weight. Uh, you know, I don't, you know, obviously we know in, in, in, in Hansa that like 20 months would have won at Arkansas. I don't think you'd eat much more than that in a home spot, a prime time spot. And a moment ago, I said, I don't need 50 drop ones. Obviously I only want that because of what Florida has done to Tennessee. You know, realistically, the way that I can, the way that I can handle this based off of how I'm feeling where Arkansas left us, I, I don't think Tennessee covers 15, 16 points. I think Tennessee wins this game because all, all along the offseason, all these, you know, as wrong as we were in spots, the, the paper trail tells you that Tennessee should win this game. Florida's not done enough to prove consistency. Tennessee's had one bad performance on the road and, and look, I'm not excusing the offense from moments against North Carolina state, from most of the Oklahoma game. And obviously the defense was terrific in both those games. Um, and even parts, like we said, the majority of the Arkansas game, but even that, even that's enough for me to say that, that Tennessee doesn't cover 15, 16 points in a series that's been so blue in orange instead of orange and what Tennessee should win this game. The paper trail tells me that all the, all the indicators tell me that. I mean, the way that Florida's been so inconsistent, all the issues and the holes that have in the roster that we know about, there's no way they should win this game. But I don't think, I don't, I don't think I can do two things. I don't think I can pick Tennessee to win this game and cover. I am picking Tennessee to win this game. The way that I see it playing out is probably like a, I'm going to say one of those really weird, like really weird numbered scores, like a 27 or a 28 to 12 or maybe 15, where you are bending and not breaking. You are forcing Florida to fill goals or, you know, as Billy, Billy's aggression likes to come out. Maybe he's going for two in spots and you're just keeping them out on those moments. You know, and I just described like a 12, 13 point win, which is what I think it should be, if not more, but I'm not going to pick Tennessee to cover a 15, 16 point spread coming off of what we're coming off of. You know, if, if Tennessee had gone, and I'm, you know, let me say, let's say Tennessee was favored by I think like 13 around the time of kickoff and Fayetteville. If Tennessee had covered and even had had like that horrible half, but had like just put it on them in the second half and Arkansas playing from behind and found some scores, but you covered in Fayetteville, I'd be taken Tennessee by like 28 in the spot. That's with Florida being UCF like they did. That's with Florida being Mississippi State like they did Mississippi State is in the, probably the seller of the, of the conference right now with the way that Vanderbilt's playing right now. I mean, it's not Vanderbilt right now. It's probably Mississippi State may be South Carolina, but I mean, they've already got that Kentucky win that they're riding high on. It's nothing from Mississippi State. And what a terrible, horrible stretch this is for Mississippi State with Georgia this week, Tennessee later down the line, having already lost to Florida, big at home. But all, all those things notwithstanding, if Tennessee had just come close to covering in Fayetteville, I'm probably huge on the balls in this spot, even if the offense was still messing around for haves or for games, I'm still huge on Tennessee. There's just enough doubt in my mind where I think you can probably, probably come, you know, 10, 12-flaunt victory here when it should be so much more. I'm still saying that. But it's not going to meet me. I'm not going to be the guy that says Tennessee covers coming off of what they're coming off of. They should absolutely win this game. There's, there's no signs that Tennessee should lose this game other than, again, the not-marifule, the series being what it has been, you know, there's been whispers of, of Nico being a fired-up cat this week and boy, we need to see it. He needs to drop, to draw anything he can out of this offensive line, he needs to fire them up. The coach, I'm not, you know, everybody's not getting to pass. I'm, obviously the guys need to be fired up. They need to get the taste of that Arkansas performance out of there. They need to do it early. They need to be intense when they do it. All those things that I talked about from the opening kick that I want to see. But again, I think that's your recipe. I think it's getting back to the basics, getting back to the hopple basics, getting back to your own playbook, doing all those things. I think it is your path. And again, I am probably going against my gut a little bit, going against my heart for sure with, with the series being what it is. I do think the balls win. I do not think they cover. We've got an over and under of 55 and a half that you would have to threaten me within an inch of my life for me to take the over on that with how these offenses have been, with how these offensive lines have been with a rotating quarterback situation in Gainesville. All those things, give me that under, give me that under, and I'll bet my house on it. You know what I mean? Like, that's the way it is. There's no way. I don't see any scenario where this game gets to 56 points and hits the over. So that's where I'm at. Still going through it, still, still down and out about that performance, just because it's a let down from a team that we expect to take steps. And well, now they've got an opportunity to take a big one because it's a team that you've been losing to over the years that you're better than and that you need to absolutely go out and flex on and show that. And that's what it's going to take to make us feel better, to give us confidence entering that Bama game and to salvage the potential put off on. That's what it's going to take. That's what I'm calling for. And again, as usual, thank you so much for very good me as I go through. For hanging out with us, we appreciate all the love you support you through, and just again, as I can tell, it's a job, it's a good life, but you share this with your family. Thank you so much for checking it out. God bless you, dear. Pandemonium reigns. [MUSIC]