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PFT Live with Mike Florio

NFL Week 6 Picks: "Joe Burrow is LITERALLY on fire"

Chris rethinks his strategy (again) while Mike is enjoying his profitable performance vs the spread. Plus, the guys react to the breaking news that the Jets have replaced Nathaniel Hackett as offensive playcaller.

Broadcast on:
10 Oct 2024
Audio Format:
other

(5:30) TNF: 49ers at Seahawks

(11:50) London: Jaguars vs Bears

(14:55) SUNDAY EARLY: Commanders at Ravens

(19:15) Cardinals at Packers

(21:25) Texans at Patriots

(24:10) Buccaneers at Saints

(27:00) Browns at Eagles

(29:35) Colts at Titans

(34:15) SUNDAY LATE: Chargers at Broncos

(37:15) Steelers at Raiders

(39:40) Falcons at Panthers

(42:35) Lions at Cowboys

(48:15) SNF: Bengals at Giants

(53:20) MNF: Bills at Jets + BREAKING NEWS

(59:15) Best Bets & Folsom Prison Blues

The five-dollar meal deal at McDonald's means you get to pick between a Mac-double or a Mac-chicken. Then get a small fry, a small drink, and a four-piece Macnuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not a lot of money. Get the five-dollar meal deal today. Prices and participation may vary for a limited time only. This episode is brought to you by Progressive. Most of you aren't just listening right now, you're multitasking, but what if you could also be saving money by switching to Progressive? Drivers you save by switching save nearly $750 on average and auto customers qualify for an average of seven discounts. So, multitask right now. Get your quote now at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates national average 12-month savings of $744 by new customers surveyed who saved with Progressive between June 2022 and May 2023. Potential savings will vary, discounts not available in all states and situations. The South Dakota Stories, Volume 7. My trip to South Dakota was the best summer ever. Now I don't need to go to Mars, because I've been to the Badlands. And I caught a bigger walleye than Dad when we went to the Missouri River. Then I rode my bike through these huge rocks called needles. Ooh, I also saw my first herd of bison, even a fuzzy furry baby one. I can't wait to go back and see more. There's so much South Dakota, so little time. And we're going to have to stop the fight. I sat down the last two nights and wrote notes on the game. It's like I'm determined to flip it around. You're only going to make it worse. This is the thing. I don't know. Here's the thing. I don't know about that. Here we are from Sasquatch citing Monday on PFT Live to the joint PFTPM. Chris Simms Unbuttoned podcast delivered by Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the National Football League. Pizza, pizza. All right. You know, I hope you didn't spend a whole lot of time last week on your picks. This week, you mean? Yeah. Yeah. Or you hope I did. No, last week I did. I spent a lot of time on my picks. Well, I'll be spending more time this week then. Yeah. I hope you didn't after spending all your time. I hope you didn't. I hope you didn't do the opposite because that's your key. Spend a whole lot of time on the picks and then do the opposite. That image of me on the left is from Wednesday's PFT Live. Run PFT because I had made a reference to a run DMC. You kind of got a cool style there. I like that really. You might be able to pull that off actually. I'm in the process of pulling that ensemble together, at least for Halloween. And if it works on Halloween, I might run it all the way through Thanksgiving. Who knows? Okay. All right. Yeah. Last week was not good for either of us. Last week was one of those weeks where it's great for fans. There it is. There's the whole thing. There's me and Michael Halle. It's great for fans. It's horrible for those of us who are supposed to know what the fuck is going to happen. Sorry, London. Because it's upsets. It's turmoil. It's exciting. But it's also frustrating because the unexpected occurs and upsets happen. And the upsets that you thought were going to happen didn't happen. That's the worst outcome. Yes. The upsets you didn't see coming happen. The upset you expected on Monday night didn't happen, which caused you to be six and eight and me to be seven and seven to extend my lead by a little bit. I'm still doing well against the spread. Holy crap. My average was better last week against the spread than straight up because I at least got a push instead of a loss, seven, six and one. No, I'm, I'm lost. You're, you're okay. You're nothing special. Like I know you feel good about your lead, but yeah. You said it. Hey, wait, wait, wait, wait. 44 33 and one against the spread. Yeah, that's strong. That's strong. I mean, it's okay. I don't, I think we've had numbers better than that. That's making money. That's making money. It is making money. That's where. First of spread and I take the best bets. That's the one I take literally literally. I really do. That hurts me and the 49ers blowing that game with so many chances that one hurt and that's the one I probably invest the most in to try to get the best bets right and I haven't been good at that either. I feel like I've been unlucky. The other ones I just been bad. I've never been swimming in my own head to the extent I am right now about picks. So say that you need to win 55% of the time to overcome the VIG. So when you're dealing with the spread to, it's just, it's not just the VIG. You're dealing with the points. So bottom line is, bottom line is don't listen to us. Don't listen to anyone other than yourself because it's a crapshoot. You're going to win some. You're going to lose some. And while you're winning, it feels good while you're losing. It's going to all balance out and the house ends up making the VIG. That's ideally what happens. Handle is equal on both sides and the house keeps the VIG. I'm at 56.4%. So I'm just, I'm just 1.4% above the break even line. Okay. So by the way, before we get into it, we need to point out as I scroll down to the spot where I have, I should know this by now, we say it every week and every week this season, you can play along with us. DraftKings is set up the free $1,000 Florio and Sims pick and pull, pick every game against the spread for a chance at a $1,000 prize pool every week. Download the DraftKings app, click on the pools to have it. Enter the Florio and Sims free $1,000 pick and pull to make your picks. Just like us, you've got to enter all your picks before kickoff of the first game of the week on Thursday night. So what if you don't know what the injuries are for Monday or Sunday, poor you. You got to go ahead and make the picks just like we do. And it's another week of only 14 games because four teams are off. The chiefs and Vikings, the only unbeaten teams left in the league and the dolphins and the Rams all off this week, everybody else playing and we're going to do our best to rectify what was a crappy week five. It really is stunning. We're already at week six and I know that we say that or some version of it every year. I can't believe it's Halloween. I can't believe it's Thanksgiving. You sound like Mike Francesca. Yeah. That's what you sound like. Mike Francesca. He does that the whole year. I can't believe it's week two. I can't believe it's week three. I can't believe it's week four. Here's how it works. Here's how it works, Mike. Here's a clock. Here's the second hand. It moves and it never stops and the minute hand it moves and it never stops the hour hand. It moves and it never stops. That's how we get there. So we're already here week six before you know it week 12 before you know it regular the season over, but we enjoyed every step of the way and tonight's game. Shreen and I were talking about this earlier on PFT Live. This is a huge game for the 49ers. This is massive. This is as must win as a week six game could ever be. They're 0-2 in the division, 0-3 in the conference, going to Seattle, Brock Purdy's 4-0 against Seahawks. Geno Smith is 0-4 against 49ers and the 49ers, Chris need this one badly. There's no question. The 49ers, I still think are a really good football team, but you go down 2-4 and you get to 2-4 and you start to panic a little bit definitely and then you're up against it. Then there's a very little wiggle room for the rest of the year. So they need to get back to 500 certainly. I think they're the better team than the Seattle Seahawks. I don't think there's any doubt about that. I look at it also and just go like in two out of their three losses, they outplayed the other team. So there is some silver lining there. I know you're not going to feel a whole lot better when you lose a game no matter what, but I don't have any doubt watching back Arizona, San Francisco. The better team is the 49ers and the same thing with the 49ers Rams game. A little unlucky with their field goal kicker getting hurt last week, a fumble at the end of the football game when they're about to really kind of put it away. That hurt them. Some special teams miscues in the Rams game. I broke down a little bit on my podcast yesterday just talking about their red zone woes. That's definitely been an issue them getting in the end zone this year. They're one of the worst teams in football in the red zone last year. They were the best. So that's got to get corrected. I think tonight's the night it gets corrected. It's still a Seattle defense. It's a little banged up. They're still learning the Mike McDonald system. As we saw last week, the Giants moved the ball up and down the up and down the field. The 49ers going to be motivated today. I think Gino and that offense give the 49ers some issues. I think we see a fun kind of high scoring game, but I'm going to go Niners clearly 31-21 on the road. Do you put any credence into the fact that when Mike McDonald, the new head coach of the Seahawks was with the Ravens last year. The Ravens befuddled and ultimately blew out the 49ers on Christmas night. Is that transferable at all to a degree to a degree now let's like let's go back to that a little bit Lamar Jackson made some incredible plays right that Brock Purdy and company got a little unlucky with tip pass interceptions and stuff like that as well. But he obviously has a little feel for how to defend the San Francisco 49ers in Shenan, but he doesn't have the Ravens defensive personnel and he doesn't have Lamar Jackson this time around. And I think that's really the big difference. And I still think they're in a process of figuring out that scheme and all getting on the same page where in Baltimore, we know they were in that scheme for a long, long time and knew it like the back of their hand. Another question. Your assessment of Brock Purdy. Yeah. I saw a clip from our old friend stats who does 49ers podcast. He accused Purdy of playing hero ball far too often and before the season, Purdy talked about how he wants to be dominant like Tom Brady was, there were some ill advised throws that I saw in that preseason game against the Saints. How has he looked to you overall and are there times where he's trying to do too much? I don't think so. I think he's actually having the best year. I mean, it hasn't been a long career. But I would say the best year of his career, he's he to me has made more plays this year outside the realm of Oh, Shanahan has to deliver it for me. And then I take advantage of it. Then I've ever seen before, I've seen more high level throws for sure too, he's had moments of where yeah, maybe he tries to scramble and take over or do something like that. But at the same time, you know, I do, there's no like glaring mistakes of Brock Purdy that I look at to go, Oh, yeah, he's really pushing it, you know, and playing too close to the edge there. Not at all. In fact, I went down like I told you with my red zone little breakdown on my podcast yesterday. If I would say anything is he could be a little more aggressive in the red zone. That's why they haven't scored touchdowns. He's got to be, you know, you got to throw a few more lasers, throw the ball in the tighter windows because the club, the field is smaller. You got to scramble and make some awkward throws. And that's what you got to do. To me, he's been too conservative down there. So I don't know if I totally agree with stats on that one. His stats, not stats stats, but pretty stats would suggest that it's the worst year of his career. Lowest completion percentage, the small sample size, at least third year, lowest completion percentage, lowest touchdown percentage, tied for the highest in interception percentage, lowest passer rating, lowest yards per attempt, although 8.8 is still pretty damn good. I just look at a situation where the injuries create stress on the team with the quarterback doing elevate. Look at the chiefs. Now, statistically, my homes isn't having his best year, but they're five and all. What is the quarterback doing to elevate out of the quicksand? Well, that's going to be interesting to be in. I hear you there. And that's going to be the question always with Brock Purdy. I don't think he's the guy that elevates you out of the quicksand like we talked about. This is why I argued with people all last year going, he's not a top five quarterback. He's not a top seven quarterback. Stop it. Like stop those guys elevate like you're talking about. He does a lot of good things. There's no doubt about it. But yeah, to me, the red zone woes and some of the stuff you've talked about and then the injuries and all that are all a little part of the problem. But having no Christian McCaffery is certainly the biggest part of their problem. He is their biggest weapon on offense. He's their biggest schematical disadvantage they have against other teams. And they don't have that right now. And I think that's hurt him too, and they're trying to find their way. And then you couple, I you because really on his a game, right? And he dropped passes early on in the football year. Debo was injured a little bit, Kittle's been banged up. So I think all those have played into the perdy success factor, but he's still leading the league right now in yards per attempt. And that does say something there. It does say that he's, you know, pushing the ball a little bit. Possy and meatballs, immediate reaction when I looked at that game and sat down to come up with my score 24 20 49ers. Let's move on. We spent a lot of time on that game. There are 13 others we need to get to London early morning, Jaguars heading over for the first of two games, one at Tottenham Hotspur stating, the other one at Wembley. They are the road team. The road team this week against the Chicago Bears. Bears are favored by two over under a 44 and a half. Who do you like and why? I like the bears. I still, I'm a little worried. Okay. I mean, I know the bears aren't, we're going to write home about it and be, oh man, they're dominant. This is a really good football team. They're still in the process of finding themselves out. But I do worry about Jacksonville again. They're still in desperation mode here. You go one in five. I mean, I think we all know you can kind of kiss it goodbye here. One in four. You almost want to say you got to kiss it goodbye, but maybe still salvageable. We've seen teams kind of fight out of these, these type of situations before. So I worry about that aspect, but I do think the bears are playing better football. I think that's the biggest thing. One, the Bears defense is damn good. There's no doubt about that and we've known that all along. The big surprise and the big positive and why I'm taking the bears is the offense over the last two weeks. And I know it's, again, it's the Rams and the Carolina Panthers, not great defenses. I get that, but it's the look of the offense, the plays, how they're packaging plays together. They have a zig for every zag. They have checks and balances. I did this on my podcast yesterday as well, breaking down the Bears offense. The Bears offense, Mike, I'm excited for you to get some eyes on it this weekend. They're doing a lot of different stuff. Caleb Williams was phenomenal last weekend. I'm going to take them to win this game and continue this momentum and what they're doing on the offensive side of the ball. Oh, and let me just check. Yeah, a Jacksonville's defense sucks. Okay. They suck. So I will be taking the Bears 24/20. Yes. Suck that, Jackson Deville. And you, now that's Chris Sims, not me talking in the event you're listening. I'm sticking up for you. Yeah. I'm sticking up for you. Or what you were saying. I'm connecting a more lopsided score. You've only picked them to win by four, but still that's the Bears in a cover. I've got 27-23. It sounds like whatever Marseilles, Louis, Cole, Camette, and William said to offense Shane Walder in a couple of weeks ago, as disclosed by Jake Lazer of Fox, it must have worked. It did, Mike. Did something happen? It did. There's more offense to be, to be had or prepare for now. I mean, I'm really, I was really impressed with the attack. And I know you hear me say this stuff all the time, right? And this is what makes Shanahan and McVey so special is they give you this and then they give you something that looks like this and they got a curveball off of it. And then they got a curveball off the curveball, right? And that's what I saw. Let alone the receivers look good. They got two damn good tight ends and they're starting to block people and, and DeAndre Swift is running angry, Mike. So yeah, I don't think they're good enough to blow them out. And I think Jacksonville still is desperate and going to put up a big fight here and a custom deploying in London, which is their advantage. But I think the bears are better. And that's why I picked the score a little, maybe closer than what I made it sound to be. And again, I've got 2723. So we both have bears by four. Let's get to the early afternoon games and really the game of the week in my estimation, especially for those of us who are easily distracted by bright, shiny objects and get caught up in the rookies who come to the NFL and make it look easy. That's Jaden Daniels. We saw him last week against the guy who was Jaden Daniels in 2017. This week is against the guy who was Jaden Daniels in 2019 and still kind of is great quarterback, great running threat, 348 passing yards against the Bengals when they bottled up the middle last week to take away Derek Henry and Lamar Jackson as runners, commanders four and one at the three and two Ravens, six and a half point favorites are Baltimore with an over under 51 and a half. Chris, you have not yet picked Washington against the spread this year. Will you be doing it now? Wow. That's interesting. You'll have to hold on and wait and hear this. Now I think the Ravens are the better team. All right. The Ravens are the better team. I also would say that I think at their best when they play their best quality football, right? I would, I feel free to say that the Ravens are in the conversation for the best team in the NFL. I feel like that. They got a lot of positives and a lot of strengths about their football team. And I don't think this is the greatest matchup in the world for Washington. One, I do think the Ravens defense is going to be a little pissed off about last week and how they performed, right? So I expect a little bounce back there in that situation, let alone, they got a defensive line that I think can be like, Hey, we can handle the run and now we can worry about the pass game and Jayden Daniel scrambling a little bit and be able to defend it that way. But where I really worry about Washington and the matchup is their defense. Washington does not stop the run all that well. And if the Ravens just stay with the run in this one, again, they are going to put Washington in a spot to where it's either going to be like, we continue to gash you in the run game because you're worried about the pass game too, or you go all in on the run game. And now your secondary is not all that good. And you can't cover Zayflowers and Rashad Bateman. So this could be another game like I called last week, right, where I said, this will be the week probably that Lamar Jackson throws for 350 yards. I could see that again happening this week because I think the commanders are a severe disadvantage in that department. I think this game is fun and goes back and forth for a while, but the Ravens show that clearly they're the cream of the crop in this one. I'm going to Ravens 34 23. Wow. Wow. So you have the Ravens covering the commanders not covering it. I'll have a late touchdown and a two pointer from the commanders to make it 34 31. You know, I worry about the Ravens. We've seen what happens when they get into a home game where they're ahead. Yep. I think back to the last time we show, we saw DeShawn Watson play well. It was a November game against the Ravens in Baltimore where the Browns stole it late. I'm concerned the commanders are going to hang around and steal this when I still think at the end of the day. The Ravens fend off the challenge. One thing I'm curious about. Are we at the point, Chris, in area into week six where there's enough film of Jaden Daniels and the Cliff Kingsbury offense that the Ravens who now have Dean Pease as a senior advisor to help first year offense or defensive, excuse me, coordinator, Zach or is there enough film out there that maybe the Ravens right figure out right how to take away the things that Jaden Daniels likes to do? I would think we're getting towards that time there where you start to see that a little bit more. I don't think there's any doubt about that. And that's the big thing that we've talked about, right? We want to see if Cliff Kingsbury can continue to stay ahead of the game. They're definitely new things a part of his offense. But what's going to be different compared to this week and last week is, you know, they're not like we saw last week one on one and having to blitz and do all that to stop them. The Ravens aren't going to have to do that stuff. We're going to feel very comfortable going our front four can stop it. We're not going to leave, you know, Terry McCorn one on one on the island very many times during the football game. This is a different animal. I don't think Washington has played a team of this caliber yet. And I think it'll be kind of, I don't want to say a wake up call, but a little like, Oh, whoa. Okay. Wait, this is what an NFL elite team is all about. All right, the Cardinals visit the Green Bay Packers in the early window on Sunday. The Cardinals pulled off the upset of the 49ers. That great moment where Kyle Murray's 43 yards away from the end zone with three 49ers around him. He throws his hand up in the air because he knows he's gone. I don't know how much of that we're going to see, but when Murray plays that way, the Cardinals are better. Jordan Love completely off the injury report, not even mentioned on Wednesday, less than five weeks from having that knee injury that look more serious than it was. The Packers are favored by five over under a 47 and a half and Chris, you have picked the Packers straight up and against the spread every single week this season. The Packers are three and two. Do they get to four and two on Sunday? Well, I'm picking them straight up. Okay. I'm not picking them to cover the spread here. I'm not. I think a little bit just because I do think that maybe Arizona's offense gets a little confidence from last week. It is Kyler Murray. He always scares me. So I probably picked the game to be a little closer than honestly, I intended here, but I think ultimately I do think the Packers are the better football team and just a little bit like the last matchup I talk about. I don't doubt that Arizona can move the ball a little bit on green Bay's defense. I don't think they're going to be able to do it consistently, consistently, but it's the other side of the ball I worry about. I do think Jordan Love just at least what I saw in the second half last week of the Rams football game, you know, turn the corner finally hit throws. He was supposed to hit seemed like he finally got comfortable. So hopefully that continues and we get to see the Jordan love we saw from last year. And I do think the Packers are one of the best running teams in football. So I think when you couple that and you put that in there against the Arizona defense that we've talked about, doesn't really have any blue chip front seven players. And I don't expect them to be able to slow down this run game either. And then you package out with the down the field explosive passing game that the Packers have. I like the Packers 28 24 in this one. So you have the Cardinals covering by a point. I'm going to go Packers 20 C 27, excuse me, to 17, no specific reason for it. I think the Packers are the better team. The Packers need to win. The Packers are at home and it's not going to be a blowout. But I think at the end of the day, the Packers end up winning the game by a couple of scores. Let's get to Texans Patriots, Houston favored by seven Patriots with new quarterback Drake May under center. Vancouver per set takes a seat the over under is a mere 38 to do the Texans get to five and one, even though Nico Collins is on injured reserve with a hamstring, you put on the long touchdown. He scored against Buffalo last week. I of course expect the Texas to win the football game. It hurts if they don't have Nico Collins. I still think they have enough on the offensive side of the ball where they should be fine. Right. The Patriots defense. It's well coached. You know, they do some good things. We know that. But I just think there's too much here and they don't have quite enough talent to match up. We saw quality offense like the 49ers two weeks ago, 30 points on the Patriots. I expect similar results here as far as the Houston Texans offense and then hey, Drake May. Yeah, this is the perfect week to start them. No, I mean, Houston's defense is fast and flies around and all that. We know that, but there is really no perfect place. I don't know, you know, is London next week against Jacksonville the right time. The next week is the Jets. We know how good that defense is. So get them in there. Get them going. But I don't expect it to be easy in your first game when you haven't played in a few weeks and everybody's kind of now in full NFL season mode here. That's tough. So I expect their offense to struggle and I expect that the Texans control this game. 30 to 17. 34 or no, 2413. I'm looking at the wrong score, 2413 Texans win. And I remember before the season, we looked at the Patriots schedule and it's like there really isn't an obvious, hey, we can make the switch here. It's just, when's he going to be ready? Ideally he would have been ready week one. Maybe they should have done it in hindsight. I don't know what internal compromise led to the cover percent until it feels like we're essentially done when you lose at home to a dolphins team that's lost its way. We're done. So let's get Drake May ready for next year with an extended pre-season for 2025. That's what this is. I don't expect the Patriots to win many games. They're going to be in position to get a high draft pick next year. They won't be taking a quarterback. They'll have somebody else who can come in and help make the team better. And then maybe by next year, we see the Patriots begin to turn around. That's right. That's not going to happen on Sunday. Texans win 2413. They need to hold people as well just to your point and showcase themselves to get people to be excited to go there, right? So in case there's a Brandon Iuk to be traded for next year, he doesn't go, eh, I don't know about that situation yet. So that's the other positive about getting them out there, getting them going. Hopefully he can do some positive things to where the end of the year, he catches the eye of some free agents and some other things like that to where they can start to track some better talent at the wide receiver position. Buccaneers relocated from Tampa for practice this week because of the hurricane that made landfall south of Tampa, but still plenty of damage, plenty of issues there. They're at New Orleans, three and a half point favor to the Buccaneers on the road. Derek cars outspenser, Rattler will get the start on Sunday for the Saints over under 41 and a half. And according to draft Kings, 90% of the spread money is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. When that happens, it's like, why don't you move the, maybe it's telling you three and a half isn't enough. You know, Buccaneers had extra time, probably salty after losing to the Falcons in overtime. You would think so. Okay. Quarterback. Who do you like? Yeah, I like the bucks. I mean, first off, yeah, I expect them to be pissed off. They blew a football game last Thursday night. They blew it. I mean, they should have won the game. They outplayed them. So that that's always going to, you know, you know, leave a chip on your shoulder, right? So there's that aspect. I, I certainly, I still think highly of this Tampa Bay offense. I do think sometimes they look to throw the ball down the field a little too much. That looks like what had happened last week. They were gashing them down the field early in the first, or in the first half, the second half. It looked like Atlanta change and went, wait, we're not going to pressure as much. We're going to play more zones and drop back. And all of a sudden they couldn't find those type of throws and they didn't really adjust. So that's one thing I worry. And I know you've heard me say that before, but I still like the offense and all that. My other only little worry is is like, Todd Bowles, like we saw in the second half, it was the vice versa, like stop blitzing, stop the five man line of scrimmage, stop like just leaving these huge holes everywhere. And I don't, I don't want to do that. This week, it gets a rookie quarterback. Don't over blitz and let him throw one on one shots down the field to O'Lavi and Rashid Shahid. That's the only thing that worries me in this matchup altogether as far as the game being close. New Orleans, they got their ass whooped to an extent on Monday night that I don't think that's like, Oh, we feel good. We're going to bounce back. That was like, Oh, wait, maybe we're not that good. And we just got our ass whooped royally by the Kansas City Chiefs. And they have injuries, injuries on the offensive line that concern me definitely. I'm going Bucks 31 14. I got 31 20 bucks. Antoine Winfield Jr. was limited in practice on Wednesday. The first time he practiced at all, he had foot injury was Friday. He was limited or Wednesday of last week, the day before the game against the Falcons. Excuse me. But they need him. They need him. And there were too many holes right down the middle. The defense looked ordinary, but at the same time, the offense looked pretty good and they almost won the game. They will win that game. They will win this one. I believe 31 to 20. The house is going to take a little bath on this one, but they'll they'll, they'll make it up. They'll make it up on the others. Don't. We don't need a bake sale for draft Kings fan, duller. Any of the other sports books, they'll be just fine. Okay. Browns at the Eagles, the Eagles had the buy week. They got embarrassed in Tampa Bay the last time we saw them nine and a half points, no, just nine points. Excuse me. Got to watch that half point. 42 and a half over under the biggest spread of the week. And we have yet to correctly pick an Eagles game, either straight up or against the spread. So let's both take the Browns. Well, negative ghost rider layers. No fucking way. Okay. That's not happening. No way. All right. Now I'm going to continue to stay the course. I know some of them by belief. So right. The early seasons crazy. Right. And no, it's all over the place and like you said, to where I feel like I've been wrong more than anything is my psychology of teams, like knowing who's a little desperate or whatever else. So I'm hoping I can correct this ship here all together in my picks. But yeah, I like Philly, Philly with a week off. Philly sounds like it's totally healthy, right? I looked at injury reports last night. We got a J Brown going. I think Devontae Smith's going Lane Johnson said he's going. So I say, watch out Cleveland. That's what I say. And Cleveland wants to play this man to man stuff and blitz and do all that. First off, it's hard to do that against Philadelphia. We saw Jayden Daniels throw it up to Diami Brown and McCorran last week. What the fuck do you think AJ Brown and Devontae Smith are going to do that? All right. So that's where. And so I have no concerns in this game. I think Philly is clearly the better team. We know the Browns offense sucky ducky. That's not going to happen anything there until I got to see it to believe it. So I don't expect anything there. My only concern is what is Jalen Hertz take care of the football. Jalen Hertz is a got the turnover disease right now standing in the pocket way too long. Bad decisions. All that he played really bad against Tampa Bay. I expect him to bounce back against some Cleveland team that I feel like is totally lost. I'm going Eagles 34, 17, 28, 14 for me. And the one thing that could change that is if the Browns do what everyone who isn't employed by the Browns in the world believes they should do sit down to Sean Watson and roll the dice. See if James Winston can eat a cheesesteak and then a W in Philadelphia and watch. That's what will happen in the Browns will win the game, but the Browns have shown no inclination to accept the advice that we're all giving on an unsolicited basis. Those lose 28, 14 and maybe we get closer to the point that the Deshawn Watson does take a seat and James Winston does get a chance to play. All right. Last game in the early window on Sunday, cults it Titans. We have yet to pick Tennessee to win this season. The Titans are favored by two and a half over under a 43. Brian Callahan, the head coach says we'll love us. We'll play if he's healthy. Mason Rudolph came in and engineered the victory over the dolphins after Levis injured himself diving for a first down. Who do you like in this one? Indy two and three Titans one and four. Yeah. This is going to be the week because I'm taking them to win and I'm going to take them to cover too. I am. One. All right. Like I expected it to be will Levis. He was a full participant in practice yesterday. And come on, we know. I mean, like let's not let's not like write letters home talking about how great Mason Rudolph was. I mean, yeah, he got a few completions and they ran the ball against, you know, a dolphins team that was totally lost, but their potential with the will of Levis is greater. Now I understand he can also do some dumb crap and maybe make them lose the game, but I still think you have to kind of figure that out totally before we speak the final switch. The Colts defense is horrible, right? It's horrible. It's up there with the worst in football. So yeah, I do think even though this is not a great Tennessee Titans offense with a week off and all that, I expect them to move the ball. And the other thing is Mike, the Titans defense is awesome. Yeah, they haven't played great offenses yet. This will be one of their toughest tests so far. But man, you look at their secondary. It's real. They're D line. It's real. I think they'll give issues to the Colts in this offense this week. I'm going to take the Titans 20 to 17. I got 17 14 Titans and I got this question for you. Yeah. What do you think the players believe when we see will Levis with a Carson Wentz moment pretty much every week, Rudolph comes in and everything gets stabilized and it's effective. Right. You know, hypothetically, Levis is better. Hypothetically, he's got the higher ceiling. Hypothetically, he's the present in the future. But Rudolph won the game. Do you think? And I was surprised that Callahan was so adamant from the get go when Levis is healthy. He's playing. It's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You got a guy that just came in and won a game for you. Well, I'm confused by this commitment to go right back to the guy that's done some dumb shit so far this year. I'll do respect. No, I hear you there. I hear that. But like, you know, nine for 17 for 85 yards, ain't going to make you feel real comfortable about pulling that guy for that guy either. I mean, that's what Mason Rudolph did nine for 17 with what like, you know, seven six yard outrouts. So that to me, there's nothing there. We know what Mason Rudolph is. He's that guy. Okay. He can run the offense a little bit and get us down into field goal position every now and then. And so they don't want to give up on Will Levis, who's got supreme physical Italian. And I think they want to ride that out and they're hoping that they can coach some of this stupidness that he's got going on out of him right now. So that he is the make or break part of this situation. But I think the team probably sees it that way too, Mike, where it's like, uh, we got greater potential with Levis, but let's give him a few more shots. And if he continues to do dumb Carson, when shit, then we, we got to get rid of them and go with Mason Rudolph. Yeah. And, uh, we'll see because look, you can see how anxious Levis was to get back in the game and he might be, he might be a little more careful. And that's not a good thing. If you think that there's a hook coming, no, I know, I make it a little more tense and I might make it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. All right. We need to take a break. Late afternoon games for Sunday, including, and I'm not brushing anything off my, off my shirt here. I'm just making sure that ugly West Virginia shirt, what do you, what do you do properly report as eligible to try to properly report this eligible. Oh, okay. All right. Chris Simpson button right after this, with the $5 meal deal at McDonald's, you pick a McDouble or a McChicken, then get a small fry, a small drink, and a four piece McNuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not a lot of money, price and participation may vary for a limited time only. Hey, everybody. It's Rob Lowe here. If you haven't heard, I have a podcast that's called literally the Rob Lowe and basically it's conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire, like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J. Fox, their new episodes out every Thursday. So subscribe please and listen wherever you get your podcasts. When you need meal time inspiration, it's worth shopping king supers for thousands of appetizing ingredients that inspire countless mouthwatering meals. And no matter what tasty choice you make, you'll enjoy our everyday low prices plus extra ways to save like digital coupons worth over $600 each week and up to $1 off per gallon at the pump with points so you can get big flavors and big savings. King supers, fresh for everyone. No restrictions apply. All right. So, you're going to be a little bit more comfortable. I'm not sure I'm going to do it today. Chris, what do you think of this one with the Chargers road favorites against the three and two Broncos? Well, I look at it and go like I understand what you're saying on the base level, but I want to go with the Chargers defense is awesome too. And the Chargers offense has Justin Herbert and that just makes me feel a little bit more warm and cozy right now. I know that the Broncos won last week and on the scoreboard it looked like it was maybe more dominant than it really was, right? But there was still offensive struggles. I mean, Bonix and Sean Payton weren't yelling at each other in the sideline because they were lighting up the scoreboard and everything was going awesome. They struggle on that side of the ball. I continue to think they will struggle in this one with the Chargers a week off. Now I know they're a banged up football team to a degree and Justin Herbert won't be 100%. But I do think between that defense, their ability to run the ball, which will annoy the Broncos to a degree and take away some of their creativity with their blitzes and all of that. And then Justin Herbert, I don't expect them to be fooled and I expect them to be able to make a few plays versus overly aggressive Broncos defense. So that's where I like the Chargers. I think this is one that's real close. It's kind of a defensive struggle. And I kind of envision the Chargers scoring a touchdown late to put it away. I'm going 2313 Chargers. Wow. Yeah. Wow. Yeah. 10 points. Wow. I think back to the stuff Sean Payton said out loud last year about the Jets. The idea that everybody was just handing it to the Jets and the Jets are going to be great. And I think this year, you know, Jim Harbaugh comes back to the NFL and everybody looks and acts like it's the second coming of Jesus Age. Yeah. I feel like you picked them to go to the playoffs and buy that. Yeah. Right. I think Payton's probably saying, Hey, come on, man, you know, what the fuck. So he's not saying it out loud or on the record. But I think this is one he's probably circled because this is his chance to remind everyone who the NFL coach is and who the college coaches, even though Harbaugh did well in the NFL. But I have a feeling that that Payton's got a little extra for the Chargers for this one. And I picked these without looking at the spread. I do that every week. I'm surprised the Chargers were favored. I picked the Broncos 21-17. I thought the Broncos and maybe be a one or a two point favorite and I still haven't covering even if they were 21-17 Broncos. It's just a gut feel pasta and meatballs game, even though I'm a believer in the Chargers. I think they've been disappointing so far at two and two and yeah, this is their chance to turn it around. I just don't think this week that they will. Okay. Steelers at the Raiders. I believe Russell Wilson's coming back this week. I believe that the full participation in practice on Wednesday is the strongest clue we're going to get that QB one is back. Win the seventh. He already has his catch phrase ready to go for his debut, which will happen I believe in Las Vegas against the Raiders. Steelers favored only by three. Aiden O'Connell gets the start over under 36 and a half. Who do you like? Yeah. Well, you never can pick the Steelers and win by more than any. I mean, they make every game ugly and tough and it's, you know, you don't know what to expect. Justin feels definitely regressed last week. That was another thing I talked about on my pod yesterday a little bit. Yeah. The film wasn't good. Miss throws, bad decisions, got into watching the rush again. It was like we watched the old Justin Fields, which you, you know, just every time I kind of think he's out of that mode, he kind of goes back into it and it does, it opens the door for Russell Wilson. It leaves a bad taste in everybody's mouth after a game like that, right? So I think the big thing is this is a game that I think suits the Steelers. The Raiders are not real good on offense without Devontae Adams. They don't run the ball great, right? We got a quarterback change and all of that. I think the Steelers bounce back and I don't really care who plays at quarterback. I think they got enough here without Max Crosby being totally a hundred percent and I think this is a team where the Steelers can run the ball on to a degree to just make enough happen in the past game. I don't think this is going to be a pretty game or a fun game to watch. I'm going to take the Steelers 24 to 20. I got 24 14. So we're in the same ballpark. I just have a bigger win for the Steelers. I think Russell Wilson is going to give him a kick in the ass offensively. The Raiders, you know, last week, my best bets were all about fading dysfunction and it, it worked two, two to one. It didn't work across the board, but one of them was Broncos covering against the Raiders. I just feel like the Raiders are kind of a mess right now. The Devontae Adams thing is not helping and either the quarterback, like they were going to have a quarterback competition in practice this week. So whoever your starter is going to be is going to get fewer reps. That doesn't make any sense. I just feel like they've lost their way and the harder they try to get it back. It's getting more more off track. So Steelers win 24 14. Okay. I hear you there. I have a question for you. Okay. Do you like it? A Kirk a cousin. I do. I like it. Mine is six at the Panthers. 47 is the over under. I've yet to pick the Panthers this season. Maybe that's one of the reasons why I'm doing so well either straight up against the spirit. That's probably why I'm doing so well because the Panthers are not good other than the look what I found game against the Raiders Falcons extra time to recover from the overnight over time, over time, overnight win against the Buccaneers last Thursday. I like it a Kirk cousin, 509 passing yards. How can you not like that? He's getting better every week. He's still not driving off the back leg and he's still getting it done. He is. He's getting it done. I mean, he's got great feel. Of course, he's a great decision maker. He anticipates really awesome and he's one of the great readers of a defense in pocket pass. There's in football, right? I mean, that's what he is. It's not wowing or whatever. But if you give him a pocket and you get a little system to this guy, he will tear you apart. And that's what we've seen. I expect that to continue Carolina's defense stinks. We talked about this before and we were talking about the Bears a little bit. They got nothing over there. Now, you know, I think they were embarrassed last week and I'm going to pick the game maybe to be a little closer than maybe some might think just because of desperation of that. And I, you know, I don't know if I think the Falcons defense is awesome. I think it's good, right? But at home, Carolina, you know, Andy Dalton, maybe this is his last start unless they win all of that. I just feel like they're going to put up a fight here. That's what I'm expecting. And I guess the Falcons winning the game and now having Carolina on their schedule, maybe don't play up to their total capabilities, but clearly picking the Falcons, 27, 23, I'm going to have Carolina cover the spread here on this one. This is going to be a challenge for the Falcons to stay focused. Yeah, that's what I mean. Because I've got Seahawks, Buccaneers and Cowboys after these next three games before they have a return date or a return date with the Saints who they were outplayed against but still won the game. So I don't think Raheem Morris lets them fall into a trap here. I think this is an opportunity for the Falcons to show everyone that they are blossing into the team that they had hoped to be after beating the Saints and Broncos are, excuse me, Saints and Buccaneers four days apart. This is a chance for them to just kind of pedal to the metal foot on the throat. I think they're going to win this game easily. I got 40 to 20. And again, I'm going with my immediate post in meatballs gut reaction. I feel like the Falcons and this is the Kirk cousins model. You beat the teams you're supposed to beat and they, they will. And I think that that's what's going to happen. This is a W to get some to forward to. It's going to give them even more confidence going into this stretch of tough game. So we disagree on the extent to which the Falcons are going to have this easily. I think they have it very easily with a 20 point win. All right. Rematch of a game that was played on a Saturday night last December. Controversial with the Dan Skipper did he report, didn't he report play the lions rested coming off of a buy at the Cowboys. The lions are favored by three with the highest over under the week of 42 88% of the spread money is on Detroit and 52. Excuse me. What did I say? I don't know 88% 42 52 88% of the spread money is on Detroit and Chris has picked the lions to win every week this season. Do you make it six for six? Well, I mean, yeah, I, you know, I don't know. Your theory is a little wrong. I've picked against Carolina every week. I've picked Detroit every week and I still suck a pick and game. So I don't know. I got some other things. Other games I got to figure out here. I like Detroit. I think this is a tough matchup for the Dallas Cowboys. I don't think this one bodes well for that. Right. I mean, Detroit, we know is very balanced on the offensive side of the ball. Dallas has been better at stopping the run the last two weeks, but I'm not ready to write home again about the Giants or Steelers run game and go, Oh, wow, Dallas, stop those run games. Oh my gosh. How did they do that? But they have been better and your man Mike Zimmer's definitely been doing some more stuff on defense. They're a little more complicated, but Detroit is man. Week off, run the ball the way they do, throw the ball down the field the way they do. I don't think that bodes well for Dallas. Now I think Dallas can score some points definitely because Dak Prescott, I think is a damn good quarterback and they'll make some plays in the past game. But I think their lack of run game ultimately is going to hurt him in this one because I think this is a game where Detroit's going to go, wait, the only way we lose is you throw in the ball the CD lamb and you making great throws and they got big people up front and I think they'll call the bluff of Dallas and be like, go ahead, throw it because we're going to play past defense and we're going to trust our big people up front. I like the lions to kind of take control of this game late. I'm going to go 34, 24 lions. I had picked this as 27, 24 and then I saw it was a three point spread. So I had to decide, do I make it closer or do I make it a little, a little more lopped side like closer? I went with 27, 23. I like the lions to win. I like the lions to cover. Look, the Cowboys and and I think things like this matter. The Cowboys played that game until one o'clock in the morning local time on Sunday night. They get home. It's kind of like playing on Monday. The lions had the week off. Yeah, I hear you. They want to go down there and they want to win this game. They want to assert themselves. They're trying to stay within striking distance of the Vikings because if they win this game next week, lions at Vikings is in the division. So I think the lions, the rest helps. They got to deal with some stuff defensively because they got shredded by the Seahawks the last time we saw them, my guess is Dan Campbell and company took care of that during the bye week. I like the lions in this one, 27 to 23 should be a compelling game though. I won't be surprised if the Cowboys win. They have, they have impressed me with how they've responded from the shreddings that they suffered at home by the Saints and the Broncos in back, or why do I keep mixing? Why do I keep saying Broncos? The Saints and the Ravens in back to back weeks. So I won't be shocked if the Cowboys pull it off, but I expect the lions to win. Yeah. They'll be shocked. I will be shocked if they pull it off. They don't maybe make me think differently of Dallas altogether because I still think Detroit's one of the best teams in football. And I think, you know, you said that there are some struggles against Seattle. Seattle, you know, when healthy on that offensive side of the ball, I mean, Geno Smith and those receivers, they can be dangerous. There's no doubt about that, but I agree with you in your statement of like, they're going to get that corrected. They're too well coached up there and Detroit, they'll figure out a new plan or a way to attack in the secondary. I mean, what I'm interesting to me is we got a week here where you and me, and this has been the trend late, we're picking some scores, right? Some teams to score some points where the early season, it was like, man, 20 to 17 was like the status quo. Now I'm seeing games and I'm going, I'm having no problem putting 34 35 down for certain teams. Yeah. Yeah. You've seen it happen. Well, they're calling their bluff of some of these teams. Some of these teams who, like you've heard me say, who are playing man to man and all the guys are at the line, like within seven yards of the line of scrimmage on second and seven. And instead of some of these offenses going, oh, we're going to find a short completion to me and third and three, they've started to attack back. And I think that was the answer. The defenses have overattacked and called the bluff on some of these offenses. And I think some of these offenses have finally figured that out and realized, wait, they're giving us some shots down the field. We got to start taking it. All right. Let's take a break. Time games for week six, when we return, including new jets head coach on an interim basis, Aaron Rogers. I mean, Jeff, I'll break try. You need Aaron Rogers. Is he the owner? Is he the coach? Is he the offensive coordinator? He's all of them. He's everything. One man band. All right. We'll do that next to you're on. Hey, everybody, it's Rob Lowe here. If you haven't heard, I have a podcast that's called literally the Rob Lowe. Like basically it's conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire, like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J. Fox. Our new episodes out every Thursday, so subscribe, please, and listen, wherever you get your podcasts. Draftking Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touchdowns. A new customer can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly. Download the app and use promo code unbutton when you sign up. Draftking Sportsbook. Pics podcast delivered by Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the NFL. Pizza pizza. All right. Uh, so here we go, Sunday night football, Bengals at the Giants on the surface. You could say not a compelling matchup. I would disagree. I would too, because I hope to have my check clear this week. The Bengals are favored by three and a half. They desperately need this one and the Giants showed some real hope and potential without Malik neighbors. They went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks without Malik neighbors. Are you kidding me? I like what the Giants could potentially do. I like what the Bengals have to do because they got to start winning one and four. They lose this one. It might be. It's not quite put the fork in them, but it's take the fork, you know, the tines and just start pressing a little bit, trying to find a good spot to stick the fork. If they lose this one, this is a huge game for a Bengals team that somebody picked to win the Superbowl and it wasn't me. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you. Everybody likes to bring that up. I love that. Yes. It brings everybody brings it up on football night in America, a bunch of fucking people who didn't make any predictions, but it's easy for them to get on other predictions. I like that a lot. Either way. Yeah. You McCordy and Jason Garrett, um, and Maria Taylor. Either way. Okay. I do agree with you. This game is going to be fun. I mean, first off, most games are going to be good with the bangles because the bangles aren't any good on defense. So they're going to let big plays happen. Now Malik neighbors, whether he plays or not, I mean, we still don't know. That's crazy. It's a little concerning, but we see they got some weapons on offense. They're not like void of a little talent. Daniel Jones played really well last week. He's played pretty solid the whole year. It hasn't been bad. I mean, it's not like you can look at it and go, oh, he's the reason. So there's a few plays in the Cowboys game he likened to makes certainly, but again, he kept them in it and they had a chance to win at the end of the football game. But here's the big thing is if the bangles can block the Giants up front and no came on Thibodeau, right? And I expect them to be able to block them, I guess, to a degree, but if they block them, Joe Burrow is on fire right now. That's the one thing I can say. I mean, he is like literally on fire. Now it stinks because they're one and four, but like I said to you on Monday, he's kind of putting up MVP type numbers right now. It's pretty special. I watched that yesterday. What he did against Baltimore this past week was beyond impressive. It was one great decision and one unbelievable throw after another. I mean, dot after dot after dot throwing the football. All right. So I expect that to continue and I think they feel the pressure on that side of the ball. We know the Giants secondary isn't real good and the pressure is on the bangles. I think we have a fun back and forth game here for a little while, but the Giants can't keep pace. I'm going to go bangles 31 21 in this one. Literally on fire might might cause a spike in the ratings, but, but this is accidental scholar time because we went over this not that long ago. Literally in a sense where you really don't mean it literally has become an accepted usage of the term really, even when you mean figuratively and it drives Pete crazy, which is why I stopped to point that out. Okay. I've got 30 to 21. So we've yet to do an exact same score. We used to do them all the time, like four times a week. Our only exact same score was the first game of the season, which ended up being the exact score of the game when the chief beat the Ravens. So we're almost exactly alike on this one. The bangles desperately need it and and it's not going to be easy. It's never going to be easy. Nobody shows up and just gives up. You mentioned Malik neighbors note. The fact that he's still not practicing, yeah, 13 days after a concussion that wasn't an obvious, like Josh Allen, oh, that could be a concussion. He's got a concussion. How did that happen? That is concerning because we know guys are going to do everything they can to come back and play. So there must be something that is sufficiently wrong that is keeping the doctors from giving him the clearance and and it makes you worry about what happens when he comes back. Yeah. Because is he, is he going to have a similar absence if and when he has another concussion? Yeah, I hear you there and then he's, he plays the game in a Kamikaze style of play, right? That's, I mean, that's why we love watching them. I mean, every play is just pedal to the metal, dive, jump, contort your body, dive into a pile to get the first down, whatever. I mean, he does that and yeah, I worry about him that way, but hopefully he gets cleared here in the next few days and can play because it will make the game a whole lot fun watching. What I would say the best receiver in the NFL right now is Jamar Chase. And yeah, Mike Brown, you're on your way to paying Jamar Chase more money than Justin Jefferson, the way this looks, yippity do, but him, personal league neighbors is going to be fun, but they will have gotten Jamar Chase for four point million dollars this year. It's never going to change. And you say that Malik neighbors plays with reckless abandon. And if he really wants to prove it, he will play literally on fire. Okay. Monday night, bills at the jets. The bills are favored by two and a half. The jets, if you haven't heard fired Robert Salah head coach, I haven't heard that is now the interim coach. I didn't know that. Damn. You know, this was one of those few weeks because I've made the adjustment to only having you on PFT live on Monday into college football season ends, the Sasquatch sighting show, but we could add some fun, you know, breaking down this whole Robert Salah thing, the Aaron Rogers effort to make it look like he had no fingerprints on the gun whatsoever, which I think is bull crap. I'm not saying. Of course it is. He ordered the code red. There's no way in hell they did it without letting him know there's no way they did it without getting his input, any suggestion to the contrary is just flat out bullshit. Yes. Right. I mean, they've done nothing since he's been there without checking with Rogers. Come on. I mean, they're signing best friends. They're asking them everything. Right. I mean, the offensive coordinators is best buddy. All of that. Yes. Of course they did. That's crazy to think that that they didn't run that by him. And I have a hard time of course believing that, oh, they just happened to talk the night before it happened. And they didn't talk about it. If they didn't talk about it, then they're both stupid is what I would say. That's what I would say to that. If they didn't that there's so that I don't understand what they're talking about there. And then yeah, by all due accounts, man, it has the feel and I know you and I'll get this story eventually, but it seems like, I don't know, changes were going to be made Monday morning and it seems like people were unhappy about it and that and shortly after that, Robert solid was fired. So that's the interesting thing here, but yeah, I don't buy, I mean, Rogers is kind of fibbed and immunized and all that to where I don't really believe very much that comes out of his mouth anymore. Here's where the timeline is interesting because it was Tuesday morning when Robert Salah had a staff meeting and said Nathaniel Hackett's being demoted. It was Monday night that Woody Johnson spoke to Aaron Rogers, but look, I mean, this is where the Rogers word games become important. Yeah, we didn't talk about Robert Salah being fired, but what about Woody Johnson saying, you know, I may have to make some big changes. Yeah, right. And do what you got to do, right. That's it. And keep this in mind, just because he was on his safe space yesterday and he wouldn't do Pat McAfee and AJ Hoch show. On the day was posted. He was a tough question. Well, in the day, he was supposed to. Because he had to figure a story first, yeah, that a team meeting at the time. So that and that sounds plausible. But my point is there's going to be a press conference and we hear all the time about how rough and tumble the New York media is. We've yet to see that directed at Aaron Rogers. I want someone to drill down what he knew when he knew it, what the content of the conversation was. Was there any discussion about big changes? Well, you know, let's be aggressive about getting at, did he know this was happening before it happened? Did he have an inkling? Was he told? Do you directly? Well, why wasn't that asked yesterday? I'm the safe space because he won't do it anymore because he's ridiculous. If they don't ask him, if they ask him questions like that, he won't do the show. All right. Who do you like in the game on Monday night? Then don't make so many issues and then we won't have to ask questions about you all the time. That's what I would say to that. Okay. I've drawn you. I've drawn you to the dark side. It took me seven years. You used to sing him. No. Yeah. Aaron Rogers. Now you're ready to literally set him on fire. He's he's at his best, literally he might be the greatest quarterback I've ever seen, but as he made missteps and become, you know, more of an issue than a positive the last few years. Absolutely. Let alone his play does not merit what he does. I mean, he does not play like a top 10 quarterback and football. So you can't act like you're the king of the organization when you don't do that. Sorry. I mean, so that that's my big thing there. Yeah. And I'm sick of people blaming Nathaniel Hackett, right? I've seen the Nathaniel Hackett offense. It was in when he was in Jacksonville and they went to the AFC Championship game with one of the worst starting quarterbacks we've seen in recent history in Blake Bortles. They didn't run this offense exactly. No, this is the Aaron Rogers offense. This is, we all know this. This is what he wanted to do in Green Bay. He wants to throw it three yards. He wants to throw it three yards again. And then he wants to throw it behind the line of scrimmage and let somebody run after that. That's all he wants to do. People are going to blame Nathaniel Hackett and now they're going, Oh, Todd Downing's going to call the place. So what? What's that going to do? Hey, get in the shotgun Aaron Rogers and do the whatever you want. I mean, is it really going to change anything? I got to see it to believe it. But having said all that, I don't believe in the Buffalo Bills. Their offense ain't very good, right? And I think this might give the Jets an energy boost here and the Jets defense is the best in football. I'm going Jets 20 to 17. They did beat the Bills last year when Aaron Rogers exited after only four snaps when Zach Wilson came in and somehow they won it over time. If you remember that, I do, which was just stunning. I think the Bills win this one 21 to 13 Buffalo pulls off the victory. They need this one. And I just still think the Jets are sufficiently in disarray. You know, we're being told certain things publicly. I think privately it is a hot mess and they're doing what they can to hold it all together. Later in the year interim head coach maybe makes a difference. I don't know that it makes a difference because the defensive staff is depleted now solace out. Albert goes from defensive coordinator head coach. They've got less defensive brain power to come up with a game plan to stop Josh Allen and company. All right. We got to take a break. Best bets and fulsome prison Blues pick, although Chris and I are both long since dead in that gutter given our pick so far this year. What's next on PFT PM and Chris Simms on button we got to motor through our best bets. Here we go. Christopher, who do you have? I like the Ravens. I'm going in the Ravens to cover the six and a half points spread. I think they're in a different class than Washington. I think they'll be motivated by a team in their area getting a lot of hype. They'll be ready to go. And yeah, they know they blew their last game at home against the Raiders here or here. I like the Ravens. Fading dysfunction worked for me last week. I'm going to do it again. The Browns are in disarray right now. I don't care that it's nine points. The Eagles are rested. They desperately need to reestablish themselves. Eagles will win by more than nine. Gosh, I thought about that one. I guess I'm a little chicken. I'm just a little scared of the the Eagles and their turnovers. I'm going to go my next one. The Texans. I expect Drake made a turn the ball over a little bit against this Texas defense. And I expect the Texans to move the ball a little bit more than I think people are expecting against this Patriots defense. I like the Texans to cover the seven point spread. I will continue to fake dysfunction. The Steelers given three to the Raiders Russell Wilson is back hashtag win the seventh. Wow. Okay. I like you there. That's that's a good one there. I'm going with the Lions. I think they're in a different class than the Dallas Cowboys coming off the by week. I just think they're too much of a balanced football team. I think the Lions cover the three points spread more fading dysfunction Falcons rested and ready to make a move. Nine is six against the Panthers. Give me Atlanta. All right. We're dead in the gutter, but we still have we still have a choice. Who do you got? You know what? I think I'm still going to go the Atlanta Falcons here over Carolina. I'll take the Eagles. The five dollar meal deal at McDonald's means you get to pick between them a double or a chicken, then get a small fry, a small drink and a four piece McNuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not a lot of money. Get the five dollar meal deal today. Prices and participation may vary for a limited time only. Hey everybody. It's Rob Lowe here. If you haven't heard, I have a podcast that's called literally the Rob Lowe and basically it's conversations I've had that really make you feel like you're pulling up a chair at an intimate dinner between myself and people that I admire like Aaron Sorkin or Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, Chris Pratt, Michael J. Fox. Your new episodes out every Thursday, so subscribe please and listen wherever you get your podcasts. [BLANK_AUDIO]