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Democracy Day Special: Tracking Competition and Dialogue in Assembly District 51

This project is part of U.S. Democracy Day, a nationwide collaborative on Sept. 15, the International Day of Democracy, in which news organizations cover how democracy works and the threats it faces. To learn more, visit usdemocracyday.org. Photo by Liam Beran/Isthmus.

Broadcast on:: 19 Sep 2024
Audio Format:: other

It's a Monday night in downtown Mount Horrib, inside Brick Cider, a farmed a table restaurant with a homestyle feel. People are snacking as they wait for a time-honored political tradition in election season, a candidate forum. At the front of the room are two chairs, an Elizabeth Crawbie. A Democratic candidate in one of Wisconsin's 99 assembly seats is sitting in one, but across from her is an empty chair with a beer growler filled with purple flowers and an empty cup. For a Republican opponent, a five-time incumbent isn't there. Both candidates, Crawbie and Novak are running to represent Assembly District 51 this November. This district has new boundaries. It includes all of Iowa and Lafayette counties, parts of Eastern Grant County, and a sliver of Dane County, including here in the village of Mount Horrib. In the last election two years ago, Mount Horrib was included in a different map and included more of southwestern Dane County. Like many communities in Wisconsin, the village has been redrawn into a new map, as part of sweeping changes to voting lines affecting assembly and senate seats across the state. Those changes took effect in February when Governor Evers signed new voting maps into law. Evers, a Democrat, have proposed different maps for years. But this year, the Republican led legislature yielded to pressure from the state's top court, now led by a new liberal majority. Last month, Republicans took up another set of gerrymandered maps to protect Republican gerrymandered incumbents, pass them, and send them to my desk. I kept my promise and I vetoed them, like I said I would. Then last week, Republicans passed the maps I submitted to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and those are the exact maps before me today. The new maps promised to increase competition in parts of Wisconsin, and Democrats could be poised to take more seats in the state legislature in November. In theory, a more competitive district should motivate both candidates to campaign harder and engage more with voters. In theory, voters will engage more with the political process if they know their vote will make a difference. Earlier this month, a multimedia team from IMS newspaper in W.O.R. T. Madison set out to test those theories. I'm reporter Apigale Levens. This project is a collaboration with IMS Community Media. It's funded in part by Democracy Day, a nationwide collaborative on September 15th in which news organizations cover how democracy works and the threats it faces. More at usdemocracyday.org. Hey Todd, good morning. This is Steve Walters, where hopefully we can still do a campaign interview. That's IMS contributor Steve Walters, speaking to five-term Republican lawmaker Todd Novak on a recent Saturday morning. Well Novak wasn't at the forum earlier this week. He did agree to a phone interview earlier this month. Hi. Hello. Hey Todd. Thanks very much for coming back. I really appreciate it. I know you want to do doors, so we're just going to take a few minutes and talk about the campaign. Novak has roots in this district. He was born and raised on a dairy farm in Iowa County, which in the presidential races in 2016 and 2020 voted blue. But on the other side, they added in some of Grant County, which is pretty Republican. You know, I kept sloppy out. I've got all Iowa now before I had two-thirds of Iowa and then the Dane County piece. He worked as a reporter and associate editor for the Dodgeville Chronicle until recently he was the mayor of Dodgeville. Dodgeville though, top of the ticket. That's also been voting down. Yeah, I've never ever won Dodgeville, Steve. I was mayor for 12 years and I never won Dodgeville. And a Dodgeville men-of-point are both Democrat. I do better than any other Republican and both municipalities, but I've never won Dodgeville or men-of-point, that's nothing new. He's represented this district for nine years in this state assembly, but his new district includes more Democrats. It's going to be an expensive race, targeted. This seat should be targeted by both parties. And he's been knocking on doors across the districts, many rural villages. I really care about these people. They don't see me just in an election year. You know, it's great doing doors, I go to a door and I, in the late first whoever answers the door is like, "Hey Todd, how are you?" He's also doing all the local fairs. His Facebook account includes pictures from these events, including the Lafayette County Fair where he bought a sheep. In past elections, he declined to participate in candidates, debates, or forums. He wasn't at the forum on Monday. Ten days before, he wasn't sure if he would take part. I have not talked to my campaign, my campaign managers and staff have that. I don't know what they've got planned for me. Do you want to participate in a one-on-one with her? I don't even know if we've made that decision, Steve. I don't know if they've made that decision or not. Novak says he's not a typical Republican, and he's voted on both sides. He points to parts of his record. I'm always taking the temperature of this district to see where they are. I have made no votes, maybe, that I personally didn't agree that I should vote no on, but taking the temperature of my district and realizing my district isn't there is what I do. One of the last things I did last session was to fight my own party to keep the office of schools safety funded. I worked with Josh Call because some of the federal funding was going to be gone and they were going to have to eliminate positions, and I fought like hell. To get that done, I was on the last bills to pass in our last days of session. Those are the fights I do. I fight for this district. I voted against Foxconn, I voted against all the sports complexes because I didn't believe money. I should be going to that. Those are the things I do, and I truly believe that's the way you represent this area. Novak won't say how he will vote on a school district referendum on the November ballot. Don't laugh, they just voted to do it. I haven't even studied it. The referendum will ask residents of the city to raise their property taxes by $2.9 million to cover a budget gap. It's one of 139 school district referendums on the ballot this fall. Novak says he needs to understand the tax implications before deciding. I have some reporters here that are just kind of watching me so be careful. She's made funding for public education her top issue and it motivated her to run alongside a sense of opportunity. I mean, he lost the mayor's race and that was one of the points that was presented to me why they thought it would be not a total uphill battle to run against him because he had lost the mayor's race by a pretty significant margin. So the impression I get from people from Dodgerle is he's not real well liked and maybe it's just the people I'm talking to. Novak says he's a middle of the road politician. He adds that "Just from the questions you asked, she's just taking a script of what root party line script of Republicans replying it to me. It doesn't apply to me." Like Novak, Krabi is also born and raised in the area. She moved to Miami where she worked as a personal trainer and owned a bike shop before moving back to Mount Horeb in 2005 to, in her words, save the family farm. She now works as a realtor, which gives her skills she says are helpful in campaigning. Krabi grew up with conservative parents and a strong love for agriculture. She says her background helps her connect with rural voters who might be hesitant or hostile toward the Democratic Party. So that's why I feel like I could be a good candidate for this because, you know, first all, my parents were conservative and that's where I kind of learned a lot of my stewardship is from my father who was a conservative Republican guy, but he still did a lot of land restoration and he donated land to the Dane County Park. Much of the Assembly District she's running for covers agriculture-heavy races. She's now the citizen representative on Mount Horeb's Sustainability and Natural Resources Committee and she's a board member of the Mount Horeb Rotary Club. She got the idea to run after hearing a presentation from a village trustee who came to Rotary to look for potential candidates for the new district after the map change. I mean, that's how it was presented to me. Like, there's a chance we could flip the district and like, there were some numbers that were thrown at me based on past election results. So it sounded like it would be not a slam dunk, but a probability. The new maps have been central to her campaign messaging. She leads with them when canvassing, holding up a photo of the old AD 51 and comparing it to the new one. It was a hot and sunny Friday afternoon last week when Grubby allowed our multimedia team to join her canvassing route. Hi. Are you Kristen? Yeah, why? I'm Elizabeth and I'm running for state assembly and I'm canvassing in neighborhood and just getting to meet people. I'm with a couple of reporters here, I usually don't travel with an entourage. Grubby knocks on doors a few times a week. She says she's trying to target voters who are undecided or want an alternative to Novak. She estimates people answer a fifth of the time. Okay, they say go away. So I'm going to say they refuse. All right, I'll get your sing along sheets out of there. I'm going to kind of stole this one from who you got to be a ghost or the attorney of this land is your land and you have to learn how to say, so I'm going to really fast. So I'm going to do a little bit of this, I'm going to do a little bit of this, I'm going to do a little bit of this, I'm going to do a little bit of this, I'm going to do a little bit of this, I'm going to do a little bit of this, I'm going to do a little bit of this on a warm Saturday evening in August, Grubby sits on a bench among the trees and crickets outside of concert benefit for her campaign in Mt. Moore. [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] Her campaign manager, Yousa Padama, says Grubby's approach helps her reach across partition lines and appeal to rural communities and values. The new district lines have given Democrats reason to go places they haven't visited before, places where there wasn't a real chance of winning. And it matters to people, right, you talk to folks and they're saying like, "Oh, someone said they hadn't had a different crowd come out there since like JFK or something." [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] So how much has the district changed? Novak estimates. Yeah, believe about 65 to 70 percent of my new AD1 is my old district, so they know me. Research from Marquette University says the district has changed a bit more than that. About 47 percent new. District performance based on 2022 top of the ticket results is more than 55 percent democratic. John Johnson is a research fellow at the Marquette University Law School poll. He says on paper, the new district 51 doesn't even look competitive. It's been a seat that Democrats have thought they had a chance at winning in the past, you know, in previous incarnations. And so when I look at it on paper now, it honestly doesn't even look like a competitive seat. It looks like what I would call a safe democratic seat, but given the fact that you have this Republican incumbent with a real history of doing better than other members of his party among the voters in his district makes me curious to watch it more closely on Election Day. He says that Novak has punched above his weight before, but... And I think the Democrats still has a strong shot just given where that district is located, how much of it is new, how much the lean of the seat has changed from the old version to the new version. But if it was an open seat, if it wasn't an incumbent Republican, I think you would see that much more of a benefit to the Democrat. He adds that experts don't expect Wisconsin's new state legislative maps to motivate turnout. The thing that drives voter enthusiasm is the top of the ticket. It's the presidential election. Most voters don't even know the number of the district they live in. They don't know the names of the state legislative candidates. People, the turnout dynamics in an election are a function of the top of the ticket. Rachel LaCoss-Ford is president and CEO of the Mount Horb Chamber of Commerce. When I spoke with her at her downtown office and visitor center, she told me she thinks Mount Horb's new districts, included in more rural communities, would give it more sway. And so that's a really, that's a big change for us. And so, you know, electing your representative, our voice now I think maybe matters. It's more because we could be one of the only bluer communities in a more rural district. At the Mount Horb voters know they're in a new district, boys too potentially have a bigger voice. And then I've mentioned it to a few people in the community and they, you know, look at me with a blank stare because they don't know what I'm talking about. Our reporting team spoke with people a few days ahead of the forum. As they strolled down the sidewalk in Mount Horb looking for produce, baked goods or local honey at the weekly farmer's market. Shoppers like Mary Blaybaum didn't know about the new maps. She was happy to hear something had changed. I think I'm happy that there is re...what was the word you were using? Redistricting, thank you. Kind of going on because I know what's been happening hasn't been working necessarily. We stopped Will Shira as he was walking through. He says he's been waiting for change too. The main impact it has had is a feeling of hope of possible change. Given that the, I believe that the state legislature has, if you counted the votes without the districting, the sides would have been flipped many years ago. And it's just seeing that start to crumble and actually start to have change really affected. It brings a little bit of hope to what has been a very depressing system for the past ten plus years. He described how the new maps symbolize a broader political shift in statewide politics. In Wisconsin specifically, the anti-union actions of the Scott Walker administration impacted many people. I used to work in higher education and seeing the sort of brain drain from our educational institutions after that, the decrease in educational quality that's offered. Because the unions lost their power and lost their ability to collectively bargain, that's a very important issue to me. I was a union member for many years. So the ability of labor markets to pay fair wages to have safe working conditions is very important to me. The continuing of redistricting in Wisconsin is also very important to me. And the, I guess the most important overall is to have a legislature that actually works for us and does things to move the state forward instead of just maintaining the status quo. And one that looks like they're working and doesn't gavel out halfway through the year and go on recess for months at a time. Shire said he'd absolutely be interested in attending a candidate forum. Absolutely. Hearing people actually talk to somebody else instead of reading a script on a teleprompter is great, especially when they're asked questions. They're forced to think on their feet and respond on their feet. They don't just have prepared statements. That shows you more what they will actually do when they're doing their job rather than how well they can prepare for a public appearance. And if a candidate were unwilling to appear at a forum, how would that affect your view of them? I would feel very negative about that. If they're not willing to appear at a forum and let their views be publicly heard and face public questioning, what are they going to do once they're elected? If they're already not willing to engage with the public, is that going to change? Doesn't seem likely. Main Street Alliance is a progressive organization that advocates for small businesses. The Alliance is hosting several candidate forums in September, including the one earlier this week at Brick Cider and two others next week. The Alliance organized forums for U.S. Senate races in 2022, but this is the first time the group has gotten involved in state legislative races. Sean Feta-Place is Campaign's Director for the Alliance. He told us in an interview weeks ahead of the forum that he's excited about how the change in maps would impact the district. People prior to the new maps were either in deep blue seats or deep red seats. And frankly, they could get reelected just because of partisanship as opposed to actually doing their job. And so now with the maps that are really 50/50 as our state is, it's an opportunity to really actually hold folks accountable and be able to talk to them about the core issues. Which brings us back to Monday, and the two chairs. One with Democratic candidate Elizabeth Krabi, the other chair, reserved for incumbent Republican Todd Novak, empty, except for flowers inside a beer growler. Yeah, what's your reaction to Novak showing tonight? I'm a little disappointed, and I know that some of the people in Iowa County, they really wanted to see some sort of debate or some sort of forum. I could see maybe why he wouldn't want to come here because maybe it's not perceived as a friendly space. Heather Murray attended the forum. She's owned a childcare business and won a key for 18 years. Her top issue? The childcare crisis in Wisconsin. And if Novak showed, she would have asked him. She's referencing childcare counts, a program that has poured emergency funding into the childcare industry as the state struggles with the childcare crisis, facing prohibitive expenses for families, low wages for workers, and high operating costs for providers. The program used pandemic-era funds to stabilize costs and increase wages for workers. Governor Evers has called on the Republican legislature for a long-term investment to keep the program going. The legislature has rebuffed him, offering separate legislation like income tax cuts and tax credits. Murray says she's disappointed Novak wouldn't show up to answer questions. It really shows that he doesn't want to answer questions and talk about the reason why we're not being supported right now. Robbie says that she supports funding for childcare. So according to a recent study by the Department of Children and Families, only half of Wisconsin's childcare slots are affordable for families who are receiving childcare subsidy through our shares program. Do you support funding the childcare counts program to address this challenge, both for parents as well as ensuring the educators receive improved pay? If yes, we'll explain why, if no, we'll explain. Oh, I definitely support that because I have been a working mom and I was lucky enough to have family members that would help me with my son because when I was in Miami, I had a small business and I really needed to have some relief so I could actually get work done because I don't use flash. Being a parent is hard. The forums are co-hosted by the Wisconsin Farmers Union and as much as questions focused on issues for small businesses, they also focused on policy supports for farmers, Philip Scott lives in Madison, but had a college internship in Mount Horub. He's the founder and president of the Wisconsin Hemp Farmers and Manufacturers Association, which was started in 2017 to support hemp farmers across the state. He says roundtables like this allow constituents to know where candidates sit. I think she has a very good take as being an actual farmer to help move an agriculture community to the table and then also represent the small farmers that grow corn and soy and everything else in between. Scott says he would have asked Novak what he's doing to help small farmers. At the end of the day, when you get an offer to show up and be able to speak to constituents, you should be able to show up and sit next to your counterpart and have a conversation. It's disheartening to me. Main Street Alliance is hosting two more forums next week, after their pack will endorse candidates. Both of next week's forums are in other districts where boundaries have changed substantially under new maps. One forum is at Wonder State Coffee in Varroco at next Monday. In that race for Assembly District 96, the maps change to include parts of La Crosse. It's gone for Republican representatives for decades. Now incumbent Lauren Oldenburg is fending off a challenge from Democrat Tara Johnson. The other forum is at the Yohara River Learning Center in DeForest next Tuesday. In that race for Senate District 14, the map has shifted from a sprawling rural district to a more compact and urban district. It includes both rural driftless region areas and democratic leading suburbs, like DeForest and the East Side of Madison. There, incumbent Senator Joan Balweg is facing a challenge from Democrat Sarah Kiyoski. Main Street Alliance says for each forum they have extended invites to all the candidates. Provided many possible dates and consistently communicated with the candidates, but only one candidate per forum. All Democrats have confirmed their appearance. Republican candidates have not. A spokesperson for Balweg told Ismos the date doesn't work for her schedule. Oldenburg did not respond to questions. Feta Place told me resistance to joining the forums comes from party higher ups, who think putting a candidate in a public forum could be risky. But it is frustrating that, you know, sometimes folks don't engage in public forums, but part of that's just frankly because the gerry manner maps people haven't felt like they needed to for a long time. I think it's been a bad thing for our state, like when you are only talking to people who agree with you all the time, you're here to think you're right and there's going to be no real feedback loop. This project is a collaboration with Ismos Community Media. Print Story by Liam Barron and Steve Walters. Read it at ismos.com. This reporting is funded in part by Democracy Day, a nationwide collaborative on September 15th, in which news organizations cover how Democracy works and the threats it faces. More at usdemocracyday.org. Story online at wortfm.org. Audio by me, Abigail Evans. Production help from Charlie Pittman. You're listening to W.O.R.T. 89.9 FM Madison. [Music] Are you still here? This Tuesday was National Voter Registration Day. Election officials want to make sure you're registered to vote. You can register to vote at the polls on Election Day, November 5th. But if you want to register by mail or online, do it before October 16th. More info at myvote.wi.gov. Thanks for listening.