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Dynasty Fantasy Football - Under The Helmet

Wide Receiver Threshold Test Update, Injuries, and Small Sample Size Wonders

Chad Parsons gives a post-Week 5 update to the wide receiver threshold test, including players likely to fall off the list, the no brainers, and small sample size wonders.

Broadcast on:
11 Oct 2024
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Because businesses that grow, grow with Shopify. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com/WestwoodOne. All lowercase. Go to Shopify.com/WestwoodOne now to grow your business. No matter what stage you're in, Shopify.com/WestwoodOne. Wide receiver threshold test. Check in here for the top 24. Let's see where we stand on some small sample size guys. And poor went out for some players that aren't going to be back for the next few weeks here. So it's been a really frustrating wide receiver position. And then late in the show, I need to do with the requisite shout out for the UTH mess ball contest for the super fans that diehards out there from a week 5. Shame on me for not being on one of the early shows of the week. And a reminder, we're going to have the key questions for week 6 games. That'll be out on Saturday, as usual, to close out the week of content here for Under the Helmet. Thank you so much for listening. Whether you subscribe, rate, and review, you just listen on a weekly basis. Or if it prompts you to go sign up as a patron over at patreon.com/UTH Or if you want to sign up at UTH.io.com to get more premium content. All of that anywhere in that spectrum for whatever is comfortable of great interest to you is much appreciated here. And the whole idea is we spend the whole off season earning your trust, building up that relationship, guiding you through with dynasty teams so that when the season comes, that you have a trusted resource at your disposal every single week. And the thing that I really find myself is consistency, which is, you know, I said before, you know, if that if that film notes show is not out, basically, when you get up, unless you work the graveyard shift or something like that on Sunday night and the Monday morning, like if it's six, seven in the morning and that film notes show is not out in your podcast feed, you can literally have some thoughts of is chat alive. Is Chad dead? Did something happen? Is he in the hospital? Did something very, very life altering happen to him? Because that's basically what it would take. And I've been doing this for years. And that has always been the gold standard. That's just one of the myriad of things. But that's the thing that I said, you know, for listeners, subscribers, hopefully the VIP chat, if that happens to me, or if you do not see, you know, if this then this outcome, yes, be concerned, be concerned. And actually a sidebar, you know, I got in, I record dynasty think tank and premium content on a separate channel with Jordan McNamara on a weekly basis. And we have our Tuesday night date. And it is so concrete that we make that work and every blue moon will like change the day, like in the off season or something. But like regular season, we are like, we're machinery, we've been doing this for years. And just the sidebar story here to get off track immediately is I was, it got to be, and it was actually, I was traveling and getting ready to travel the very early next morning. So had a lot to do with packing and just getting ready and all of that. And so it got to, we recorded 930 Eastern, 630 here on the Pacific time zone. And so it got to that time. And so I normally send some notes and some trees and stuff. And then right around that moment, that minute within like two or three minutes, I get an email that has to zoom link and we get on the call and we go and do our thing. And all of a sudden, you know, and then it gets to five minutes after, it gets to like 10 minutes after I'm like, okay, you know, some, every once in a while, you know, he's got, you know, you're putting kids to bed, you know, you're in, it's, it's bath time. Like, every once in a while, there's a meltdown and things occur and, you know, it can be late. But I hear nothing, but I text them, you know, and then, and then I call and then it's like, I keep waiting and I'm kind of doing other things. I'm like, eventually, like, okay, I gotta get move on and I say, you know, hope everything's okay. But, you know, follow me if you can record. And it just got really screwy and weird. And I went through all these emotions of like, like, because I just mentioned that about film though. It's like, if I'm not, if I don't show up in post, like, you should probably assume something's wrong. And, and so, fortunately, like, I actually went through some emotions like, I think who wouldn't maybe that's like, this is new to each and I, we're having a little bit of dialogue. Like, like, he, he might be dead. Like, this is, it's very, very, very unlike him to not text if he's, you know, if something is happening or, you know, I literally call that I, we do not call each other often. And specifically, we don't call each other often about things like this. It might be about some trade to discuss and it seems rather timely, but man, ended up, he just fell asleep with his, you know, putting his kids to sleep. And normally, you know, he either gets a wake up, a wake up nudge from, from the misses or, again, it's just, you know, Tuesday is the day that, you know, he can't really stay asleep for two, three hours and then, yeah, you know, pill around a little bit and then go to bed for good. It was just one of those nights, he was just asleep, dead asleep, phone on silent and no, no lifeline, no red courtesy phone at the airport. But I'll just say, you know, for a couple hours and we ended up recording some of our premium stuff solo separately, just because we ran out of time on that night. But man, for a couple hours did not hear a thing and it was a little concerning, a little unnerving, but just no. I will be there, I will post with the film notes podcast, I consider it the cornerstone. The kicks start the week and get us off to a good start here covering every game with every play that I watch and then also distilling it down as the phraseology goes to the dynasty information you need to know. Back to wide receivers here and the actual content you came for and a reminder here that the thresholds we are looking at are, and this is the average for a top 24 finish. We are looking for two yards per target. We are looking for 23% target per route run and we're looking for about 35 routes per game. You hit those thresholds and again, you can have upside beyond that. Maybe you finished at wide receiver 32 or something, but in general, that's what we're looking for for the top 24 and you hit all those thresholds and you're a really quality. It's hard to keep you out of a fantasy lineup, so all good vibes there. So let's do the check up here for close week five at the position. 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He's one that I circled back to in the Scott Fishbowl because you get a lot of benefit to the return game and Turpin actually being used now with no brain and cooks. They've either unsettled or seen Jalen Brooks elevate. We also saw a big game from Jalen Tolbert, but they just need targets. So Cavante Turpin, playing a little bit, small sample size, of course, applies, but he's in there. He kind of reminds me of Adarius Tony, you know, that when he's in the game, look for him to get the ball, hybrid sort of player and just kind of manufacture touches for him. He's doing pretty well here outside of dropping a few balls for the Cowboys in addition to his special teams work. So he's a small, small sample size, Meevin. And then we've also got Willemide Zacchaeus. He's been on the list for quite some time just in terms of like a relevant player for Atlanta and otherwise. So he's starting to play a little bit, but again, super small sample size, only 60 routes on the season. So not really much to talk about there. Leviska Chanal, small sample size. He actually, I just, you know, recording this on Thursday at late Thursday night, just watched him with that kickoff return electric there for Seattle, almost like Cordial Patterson still kicking around the NFL. It's a guy that, you know, enough speed, enough tackle breaking, built like a running back, but you know, he's in enough hands. So this is Chanal, super small sample size, but he is on this list. And I think that's like in terms of the small sample guys. All right. So some of the like, not along and you're not surprised that they're here guys. We've got Nico Collins, who, I mean, what a monster season he's in, he got put on IR. So that's going to temper enthusiasm. He actually might be a guy that you can get as a rebuilding team or you're falling out of the race team where nowadays can be out for a critical span of time, a team that's, you know, if they're two and three or three and two, they might have too much time to waste here for their team and for their lagging wide receiver core without Nico Collins. So if you can offer them production, maybe if you're a team falling out of it, you can get Nico Collins with the idea of, hey, he's not going to quote, unquote, hurt me with production over the next month. And I get that budding, beautiful profile going into 2025 as well. Brian Thomas, I mentioned him on the update a few weeks ago here for I think it was maybe three weeks ago here on the threshold update, just a monster rookie season, checking every box except for dropping too many balls. But again, I think drops are overrated. He's running a ton of routes, you know, a good number of routes for a rookie averaging about 16 points per game, 24% target per route run. This is on a team where we have a lot of quarterback and just how good is this offense questions with Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence. So good vibes there. Also, poor one out for Rishi Rice, we got quote unquote, good news, but he's still out for the season. So Rishi Rice, the next thing for him is probably going to be a potential suspension or his legal situation, and where that resides for 2025 status is he going to be healthy and sit on the sidelines missing some games to begin the year. That'll be the one talking point for him in the office. He's in addition to hopefully by April May, he'll be good on that front. We got Cooper Cup and Mook Kukunakua, it'd be nice by later in the year if we have both of them back. Cooper Cup is going to beat Kukunakua back by reports. They're a monster duo in terms of just wandering and soaking up targets. And again, Stafford, what a good punch but he's surviving there without his two main wide receivers. Justin Jefferson, no surprise. Chris Olave, repeat, died from a few weeks ago, no surprise. Repeat Shaheed also on this list. That tandem, it's crazy how similar the numbers are between Olave and Shaheed. Very similar points per game, yards per target, target per route run. So they're both doing great and neither one with a drop so far. We'll be about Spencer Radler. He's going to be a key watch along with Drake May here and it might be some of those critical questions here for week six as well with them getting their official start and debuts. Malik Neighbors, no surprise. And Ancillary Point here might miss the game. So that could open up various late in as well as Wanda Robinson to be in line ups as well because Malik Neighbors still having symptoms. So that's going to be a key one to track over the next 48 hours. And then you've got Devonta Smith, AJ Brown. It seems like it's both of them are trending the right way towards being back this week. And I would just keep reminding folks that Devonta Smith, really good player, but he's not as good as AJ Brown. So he kind of get blocked out by the sun there. George Pickens is still on this list. Now the routes at 26 per game has got to get better. Zero touchdowns. Bit surprising there. But again, touchdowns, tough to predict. But yards per hour and target per hour and both easily qualifying here. The upside has just been taken off because they're there with Justin Fields and they're in a run centric, a small ball type offense where Pickens isn't getting the deep shots. It's going to be really tough for him to score and maintain that. Chris Godwin also no surprise on this list. He's hanging on. He's at 24% target per route run. So we'll monitor that. See if he, you know, the next update in a few weeks, if he can stay there. Joanne Jennings, I think is going to fall out relatively quickly. He's at still point, 2.9 yards per route run, 24% target per route run. I think as long as Debo, who actually got dinged up on this Thursday night game and then branded IU and Kittle, if they're all healthy, then I think that it's going to be tough for Joanne Jennings to maintain that number at 24% so some other names to clean up the corners. I'm excited about Lad McConkie. I mean, it's kind of, I wouldn't have thought I would have said that back in May, but for an offense that's not very high powered and not around, it's going to come up. He's only at 21 per game. 2.1 yards per route run and an exciting person. 29% target per route run. Full touchdowns on the season. He's playing out of the slot. Seems like a really comfortable binky for Justin Herbert and that offense where when they need to play and they're trying to play it close to the vest, just like Pittsburgh, applying better defense, running the ball, and again, a few key plays. Lad McConkie has been a critical element of those key plays when it hasn't been a Quentin Johnston touchdown, but I think those are going to be tougher and tougher to project as we go forward this season. Then we've got Jordan Whittington. Tutu Ahwell, I think was on this list when I did the last update, but Whittington is the one that remains on this list. 2.12% and 24% solid stuff there. He's mixing in between the slot out wide. He's just to drop a ball. You have to score a touchdown, but yet still a guy around 10 points per game. So some positives there for Jordan Whittington and one that, again, a baby cooking a kuwa, a guy that, you know, let's see where we stand, but Rams are exciting when you look at, would they be full health? It just has not been that way. And they now have, you know, quality what we saw last week with Blake Quorum and the number two role looks really comfortable on him is what I would say. So Whittington, you know, a lot of August vibes, then it kind of got put in a can there when he was just buried on the depth chart. But now unburied alive, it's like that hand coming out from the grave, you know, there's just a, you know, I'm alive. And so Whittington is actually having an opportunity to prove what he can do. You know, with this small cross-section of the season with this expanded role, we'll see how long it lasts. Even if Cooper comes back, you know, we're still going to have Whittington probably involved. And he's just a such a different player than Tutuat. Well, but both of them have been big time infusions into this offense in recent weeks. Getting engaged can be stressful. Getting the right ring won't be at Blue Nile dot com. The jewelers at Blue Nile dot com have sparkle down to a science with beautiful lab grown diamonds worthy of your most brilliant moments. Their lab grown diamonds are independently graded and guaranteed identical to natural diamonds and ready to ship to your door. Get $50 off your purchase of $500 or more with code pod at blue Nile dot com. That's blue Nile dot com code pod for $50 off. We got Drake London on the list. So it shouldn't be super surprising. He barely qualified in yards per route run. But quality quality game this past week with Atlanta throwing the ball around the yard. That's a drop of ball three touchdowns and again, all positive advice for Drake London. 35 routes too. So not many guys on this list are running enough routes. London hits all three boxes here. And he's almost up to yards per route run for his career. And he's at 24% target per route run. So while here at Wilson has not hit those expectations that people had that could have up in the wide receiver five six overall. Greg London, who was cheaper, you know, I was kind of commenting that there shouldn't be that divergent in price. Drake London is the one that's actually hitting these markers and having himself a season having himself a breakout. That's we go through about a third of the fantasy season here. And then the last one I haven't mentioned yet is Josh Downs. And we'll see if I mean, I'll connect it. I think it's gonna be very connected to Anthony Richardson. But again, Josh Downs is healthy. Keep making plays. You know, 2.34 yards per hour. And 35% target per route on 25, 25 routes per game. That's huge stuff. He's a flat center guy, 89% of the time in the slot. And but again, nine yards per catch. That's going to keep him down. And I just think that the timing and rhythm offense is going to be there with Flacco. Like like Josh Downs might be a top 24 wide receiver rest of season if Joe Flacco started the whole year. But Anthony Richardson, probably back this week. If not back this week, probably back the next week, even higher odds. And just it's a high variance game. It fits better with Alec Pierce. It fits better with, you know, a sporadic, you know, deep over route to AD Mitchell, as opposed to the mechanical, more precision game of Josh Downs and some of these route concepts. So with Downs, again, part of him is being propped up right now by, you know, those Flacco games and that sample size that the backup quarterback has a crude in this offense. And then with Richardson, you know, the volume is going to drop the again, just, oh, that was an exciting touchdown drive. And then, you know, an ugly three and out because he overthrew a receiver on third down, that type of stuff. So and then Pittman, again, being out, that obviously is going to give bounds a really good shot to maintain this target per route run in the 25 to 30 percent range, maybe not 35 percent, you know, but definitely an elevated number, even if they are on small sample size, I think that 25 routes, you know, for a tertiary wide receiver or now a secondary wide receiver is going to be a challenge as well. It's because there's not why is lesser routes, fewer routes. And that pie just shrinks down, shrinks down like, you know, like one of those, what is it, putting skins? That's a deep pole reference there. All right. So those are some of the highlights. Well, actually, that's the whole list of who is qualifying, you have the small sample surprises. You've got the, yeah, I knew that nodding along. And then you've got the interesting names there. As promised, I did say I need to update here on the UT best ball contest and want to give a shout out here for week five winner, Bart, monster week, monster week, Darnell Mooney, in his lineup 30 plus points, Brock Bowers. He's really been coming on. He's been in his lineup three, four times already this season. He's been tolerating Trevor Lawrence. He actually got the best game out of Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix as well. This past week in the perfect storm, DeAndre Swift has had a great schedule the past couple of weeks and it's going to continue. So anyone with the, with DeAndre Swift in the contest stands to benefit about 55, 56 points over the past couple of weeks, Jake Ferguson, I have more my team. Man, love that guy. He was affordable in the contest. Rashid Shahid, not many have him. Art does and he's benefited heavily. And again, quarterback, because he, he spent, he has so many, like he, he has maxed out his, his roster limits. He got James and Williams with a couple of spike weeks earlier in the season. And we'll see about some of the Patriot options because Drake May under center in week six. I mentioned in the VIP chat, I'm, I'm excited by a little nervous because UTH heavy investment, heavy recommendation on Drake May. And, you know, they debut the big reveal here. And while, you know, the expectations are low, let's meet there. Like everyone wants to see him flash a little bit, you know, whether it's extending the play, that big arm. And frankly, we just want to see longer forays and passes down the field to open up this offense that Jacobi per set. And the leaky offense line, that combination was just horrific. Let's try to get that done. Sidebar way of saying congratulations, Bart, he has Jalen, Polk in there. So maybe we'll get some startable games out of him. Bart is up into the top 12 or so of the contest overall. And I'll just say, Alec, Jamie, he and Tim C are up at the top right now. 123. And I can't remember a time that the, the motables, the, the clinical experts, if you will, in this contest have been so low. Tim Torch is the highest of us, maybe 15 or so. And that is, you know, normally, you know, there's been many years, Katie flower has been up near the top. I won the whole thing last year. That was my first time winning. Katie is in the top, I don't know, 25 or so, you got to save us, Katie. Tim, he's he's on track to have his best season ever. And I am having my worst by far, my worst season ever. I mean, I'm closer to the bottom than the top. I mentioned quarterback issues. I went with a shotgun approach and it has literally blown the back of my head off so far. But you know what, I do have Drake May, I just look now. So Drake May, saving Drake May because I am on fumes here. I lost Gardner Menchie as a starter. Russell Wilson hasn't even got off the mat as a starter. Rice Young got benched. I went with the cheap approach. And, and frankly, I got the bonus player that ended up being Jake Furson. And like, so I, I, I spent it at tight end instead of getting like Justin Herbert at quarterback. But at this point, like, I just have so few starts. So far, I have Taysom Hill, who's clarified classified as a quarterback. But man, I mean, it's a road to nowhere. Quarterback literally is the position of killing me, because I've actually done pretty well at the other positions. So James, shame, you can't, you can't get through. And this is why, you know, in a best ball, you know, you build a line up once and you're out for the rest of the season, you got to have some stability at quarterback. Big, big lesson learned in this contest for me. I should have known better. It's like, I almost, you know, I forgot to read the rules and for the strategy section of my own contest. And also, thanks to my fantasy league for hosting this on an annual basis, much appreciated. And it's a lot of fun for us and the super fans at UTH back this. If you want to qualify for a future year, you got to sign up as an all pro over there at atrion.com/UTH. You get a free draft guide when we get there covering rookie drafts and NFL prospects at the skill positions. When we get to comes out early April, you're hear about it. I'll mention it a few times in the off season. And then copy one of the pre draft edition comes out then. And then by the time the end of the NFL draft weekend comes around, you have it in your hands, the final copy. So you can go out there and dominate your rookie drafts and have the data of the UTH projection model on your side, all the historic and your target of void players, and a very clarified road map for all of your existing leagues rookie drafts when you get there in May for most of you. Thanks so much for listening, as always. And again, we're going to have a final show of the week talking about the key questions for week six and the games on Sunday. I'm Chad Parsons. Until next time, never settle, refuse to be average and keep building those sizes. Bombas makes the most comfortable socks, underwear, and t-shirts. Warning, Bombas are so absurdly comfortable you may throw out all your other clothes. Sorry, do we legally have to say that? No, this is just how I talk and I really love my Bombas. They do feel that good, and they do good too. One item purchased equals one item donated. To feel good and do good, go to bombas.com/listen and use code listen for 20% off your first purchase. That's B-O-M-B-A-S dot com slash listen and use code listen at checkout. Bingo. All right, Phil, we're recording now, so it's live. Go ahead, pick on me the way that you want to. Did I say that? I would say that to my son, man. I mean, come on, man. Just go. This isn't CBS. All right, be quiet for a few seconds. Why would people want to listen to the Sims complete podcast? Well, a couple of things. One, if you'd like to see sons pick on their father, this might be the place. If you want to see a place where the father just kicks the out of his son, this will be the place. What do you like about it, Matt? Ditto. Father, son, dynamic duo talking about the game of football that we love and share and appreciate together. And you know, hey, it's an extension of what we did, right? Growing up, I was able to watch my father play football, then obviously watch him as a broadcaster, and then he taught me the game of football and share the wisdom that he learned throughout his playing career. And, you know, hey, sometimes we're full of it. And sometimes we actually know a thing or two. Well, we do do a lot of research, at least I do. You a little spotty, but you know, you're you hang in there. It's fun. I love doing this and it's been awesome. Sims complete. Check us out wherever your podcasts are available on the Believe Network. Appreciate it. See you. If you like the show, please take a moment to rate, review, and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening. [BLANK_AUDIO]