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Grant and Danny

What the Future Holds | 'Bustin' Loose Baseball'

From 'Bustin' Loose Baseball' (subscribe here): Now that we've looked back at the 2024 season that was, Grant & Tobi look ahead to what should be a big offseason of decisions for the Nationals organization. Will they look to spend money to take the next step towards competing in the National League, or will they continue to rely on youth to develop to move the organization forward? Plus, Grant & Tobi make their picks for who they think will win the 2024 World Series.

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Broadcast on:
11 Oct 2024
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>> Bustin' Loose Baseball, hosted by Grant Paulson. >> And Toby Altizer gives you in-depth analytics. >> And interviews on everything baseball in the nation's capital. >> Now, here's your host, Grant Paulson and Toby Altizer. [MUSIC] >> But that brings me up to one topic as we kind of launch into looking ahead. What would you rather than do? Would you rather than go get a power bat and start, this is first base notwithstanding. Cuz I think they're gonna sign up for a space. But in the outfield, would you rather them have crews stay in right and play JY and center with James Wood and left and have that home grown out field kind of as it was at the end of the year? Or would you rather than kick crews over to center where you're no longer gonna be gold glove or platinum glove there, but he's gonna be above average. And then you bring in a big time power bat, Anthony Santander, somebody else, via trade via signing, who then can go hit you 30 home runs and make your offense a lot better, even if your defense gets worse. Pick a path- >> I mean, if you're assuming that they're gonna sign a first base, but I'll stick with Jacob Young and take that money that you could potentially spend on a power bat and invest that in some starting pitching. Because I think he could be as young as that, but in their field. >> It's not like they're gonna go first base and right field and a starter and a reliever. Like the way that they're gonna spend if they spent, and by the way I'm hopeful that they spend a good bit of money, I'm not convinced of that. I think there's a path where they don't do that at all. But to your point, if it's an either or, you could say, okay, well, you're better off with that outfield and just go on premium defense and a better starter that you spent, I'm just making this up with like $20 million a year long, or a better bullpen where you just added $210 million relievers if that's the path. >> Yeah, and maybe you've thrown out the idea of a trade. Maybe path is, you go spend on Santander, you've talked about Christian Walker at first base, maybe you spend on Christian Walker, and maybe you take from that plethora of outfielders that are prospects and trade a daily in line on a couple of other guys and try to go get the starting picture that you'll have under control for a couple of years instead of spending big top money on a Corbin Burns or something like that. I don't know that they'd be shopping there anyways. But I think personally, I think Jacob Young is still among nationals fans underrated as a defender because they're talking about trying to potentially take his spot. But if they're going to be willing to spend- >> Let me just jump in on that. I see that same discourse. I don't think it's that they undervalue him defensively. I think people don't properly understand the importance of defense. Maybe that's what you're saying. Sure, they overrate his lack of power in an era now where everything's about the home run and driving the ball and run production. Like number one, it's not like he's always going to hit 250 with a bunch of singles. You know what I'm saying? Like this is a guy that led all of his league in runs. He was number two to Aaron Judge. Your judge broke all the records in the AL a couple years back in pro baseball and run scored. So he can hit, maybe next year it's 275. Is the OPS ever going to be 850? No, he doesn't have enough extra base hits. But a single is a double for him when he steals bases like he does. But anyway, go ahead because I see the same thing and I think it's silly to me how I don't want to say Nat's fans are down on him, but the discourse around him I find to be silly. >> Yeah, and I think the reason is there's really only two positions. It used to be three, but there's only two positions in my opinion that you can get away with a subpar hitter if they're that good defensively, it's center field and short stop. And he's been so good in center field. I wouldn't say it anymore because no one throws anyone out anymore. And that's why it used to be catcher, but no one throws anyone out anymore. >> And framing matters less. >> Yeah, so I would say it's really two positions at shortstop and center field. And when you look at what he's done in center field, you know, whatever he does offensively to me is gravy. And I need him to get to maybe a 330 on base, like I know people love to generally, you know, especially if you listen to our podcast, it's a little more analytical, you're going to look at OPS, you're going to look at some different numbers. To me, the one metric I look at with Jacob Young and it's the only one I care about in terms of his ability at the plate is on base percentage. Because if he hits singles, it turns into a double because he steals a bag. He's going to be great when he gets on base. It's just that he has to get on base. And someone that I looked at just to get a barometer of a solid hitter, he was never anything spectacular, but a solid player that made a big difference on the base pass and wasn't even the defender that JY was, was D Gordon. For his time, you think back to Miami, you think back to his time with the Dodgers. And he lived around a 330 on base. So that's where I get that number, about 330. And he's been basically 10 points or so below that for the last, you know, this season. And that's kind of where he lived. If he can get that up to 330, there's no question about it in my mind that you stick with JY in center field, you know, you bat him eighth or ninth and how many lineups in Major League Baseball have a number nine hitter, a number eight hitter. That's a true difference maker. So to me, if you can have a guy that is a spectacular center fielder, arguably the best in the game. And the other thing about this grant, too, I was talking with him in the clubhouse. And I don't think we talked about much about this. He's not a natural center fielder. He hasn't played tons of center field. He didn't play at tons in the minor leagues because other guys were taken priority ahead of him that were top guys in the system that played center field. He really just started playing center field in the last year or so. So even if you go back and look at the end of last year, you look at the beginning of this year, there were still some times where he wasn't getting the best jump and maybe his first step was wrong. He's going to get better in center field and he's probably going to win a glove, if not a platinum glove this year. And he's still going to be able to improve as a fielder because I think his arm could use some work. I think there are some different plays in the outfield that he can work on. But any ball that hangs up, he gets to. To me, if you don't understand how good of a center fielder he is and what he brings to the team, you're severely underestimating him. You want a little more from the bats, but honestly, literally, it's just a little bit more. So to me, assuming they're going to spend it first base, which they need to do, that's priority probably number one for me. If they're going to do that, I'm not taking Jake Young off the field. I'll go spend on a starting pitcher. Yeah, I think I'm probably there with you. Number one, I think it's a really good point on center field being an area where you can get away with that and worse, you could still be good. In fact, we've seen it, by the way, bro, like you see it in the playoffs with the Astros and from teams over the years that make these deep runs and they've got this sterling defensive player who's a little light offensively or whatever. I guess I would have to know like go ahead. I mean, think about 2019, Victor Robles, do you remember one offensive play in the playoffs? You remember him playing some good defense. It's not like Victor Robles is making a huge difference. That's for James Wood, that's for Dylan Cruz and oh, by the way, by leaving Dylan Cruz in right field and James Wood in the field, you might have the best defensive outfield in the entire major leagues. To me, I would just want to know like, what is the alternative and like, what does that look like? So I'll give you an example. I think Anthony Santander could get like five and a hundred or something like that. Now maybe if it's a one of those off seasons that we don't predict and it's a little suppressed or whatever, that doesn't happen. Let's say it's four and 80, okay. Maybe that's more realistic. He's 29 years old. In fact, he's about to be 30. Am I willing to give that to him? I think I think he's a really good player who's going to hit 30 plus home runs a couple of times in the next few years. So if that's all you care about, fine. But I think this is a pay him on a career year guy that, you know, is probably going to end up being not a great contract. He's going to DH in a few years. He's already not a great defensive player. So like let's just say for whatever reason, Santander's not the guy because I'm not sold or convinced that I'd want to be the team to give him that money, although his power that he'd bring would be a big deal here. I'm not, you know, going cruise to center, young to the bench for Mitch Hanager. I'm not doing that for Max Kepler or Hunter Renfro or I'm just running through some of the right fielders available, Randall Grichik, like it's not a big market. The right fielders that are going to be free agents are Juan Soto who I guess we could do a pot about at some point, but that's not happening. Sorry, who's 25 and then Santander. So if they're not going to sign one of those two guys, then to me, I think they've kind of got the plan in the outfield and some, still some talent coming that that's going to play the outfield for them as well. I could see a path maybe to packaging some outfielders together to go get starting pitching, which we could talk about. But to me, the blueprint this off season would be a Christian Walker edition at first base, who I know that there are people in the building that really, really like him, whether or not those people get to have their say or not, I'm not sure. But Christian Walker coming over who's going to give you 30 home runs at first and play plus defense, he's in his 30s, but is a guy I think they can afford and kind of build their off season plan around. And then I want a mid rotation starter type. I'd love like a Corbin burns kind of deal. That's not happening. Maybe they have to trade for this guy, maybe you package three or four prospects together and you go get a number two, number three starter. But ideally someone that is in that $20 million range that comes in here and gives you the innings eating veteran, veteran presence of a Corbin to go with gore and the rest of the young guys in the rotation. And then you need to work on the bullpen. You know, if they do those things as a bare minimum, I think that's the foundation for a good off season, but they must do something. They cannot do what they've done the last couple of years. If they do, fans should be outraged. They should be livid. I think the media should crush them columnists like Barry's for Luga in town should be writing about how unacceptable the off season was. Like you don't just get years and years to do nothing. People are patient. They give you time that for your blueprint for your phase and it's happened, but we're also still in wait and see mode tobs with this ownership group to see. Are they ever going to spend again? Is there a path forward to actually spending again? And this is the off season to do it. You're now knocking on the door. You're in a decent place. You got to figure this out and go spend some money and it's time. Yeah. And two things off of that, one, if you wanted, you could still go get a Walker in a Santander and keep Jacob Young in center field and DH, whether it's Cruz, Woods, Santander and work through and give guys days off and have them DH. So there's still a way that they could do it if they wanted to spend on two big bats. The other thing, Grant, as we talk about this with the NFL, all the time and the commanders are currently in this phase where you've got a quarterback on a rookie deal and having a guy like that. One, the nationals are not going to be paying anybody except for Steven Strasburg going forward. So that shows you how little they're spending on their actual roster. And two, like James Wood, Dylan Cruz, let's just assume they hit, you've got a handful of years before they're going to ask for a big deal. Are you paying them? So before you end up having to pay them big time contracts, I'm not trying to say like, let's look that far down the road. But if you're going to kick the can down the road, how far are you going to kick it before you have to start paying James Wood 30 and 40 million if he continues to be the player, if not more, if he continues to be the player that we're seeing and gets even better. Dylan Cruz in that same sort of oak and hopefully Brady housed the line. Like this is your time. This year going into this off season, looking ahead to next off season, these next three to four years are kind of your window where you need to go out and be aggressive and hope that these guys come up and show you something and they're able to produce. You're going to have to spend at some point. If it's not going to be now, then I don't know that there's a whole lot of better time down the line. I think maybe you could make an argument for the next off season if you really wanted to say just because you'd have a another full year of Dylan Cruz and a full year of James Wood and potentially, you know, half to three quarters of a year Brady house. So I could listen to that. But at the same point, you've got to spend at some point, I think it makes all the sense in the world to go ahead and do it because you can build off of what you did this previous season where there were some positives, you know, James Wood and Dylan Cruz were the top prospects in your system. They're up now. So if you're going to say, let's continue to wait, there's, there's not guys in that same sort of tier coming up. I think Brady house is going to be fantastic. I talk about Brady house all the time. That's my guy. He's not going to rank as a top five guy in a movie pipeline when he gets called up. Dylan Cruz and James Wood both were. That's your future right there. Your future is already in DC. So if you're going to continue to wait and say, well, let's see some more young guys. The young guys coming down the line are the fillers. Those are the guys that plug a hole here, plug a hole there. Potentially you trade a few of them for a guy to help you out. Now's the time where you get that top tier talent to go along with your superstars in Wood and Cruz. So I think you're right on. If they don't spend this off season, now's the time to really get on them. People have got on in the couple of off seasons. I've kind of said, all right, hold off. This is the off season. If they don't spend this off season, then chances are they're not going to. Well and think about the royals who lost 106 games last year and right now are on the verge of an LCS berth. When they lost 15 more games than the Nationals did this season, they kind of surprised people by how aggressive they were, mid-market, veteran pitching, like getting, you know, bringing in pieces, right? And it worked out and right away with a good manager and a good situation. They kind of turned the thing around. So I just think it's easy to sit back and say, oh, it takes a ton of time. Well, number one, it's been several years. Let's call it what it is. I mean, 2020 was not the plan beginning of the rebuild. But since the pandemic year, 2020, this team has not been good. And since 2021, people have actively kind of participated in the sell off, you know, actively kind of participated in the, you know, the rebuild. So you just don't get a seven year window to do this. That's first and foremost. I just, I'm fascinated by kind of where this goes, right? I think there's a path to what I want, which is them doing some big game hunting and some, you know, legit fishing in ponds where there's big fish. But I also know that the most likely outcome is something that's in the middle where they, to your point, they have no payroll at all. So they have to, they know they have to bring in some players just to fill spots and spend a little bit of money. So they're not, you know, the Marlins are the pirates. So they, you know, they go out and they sign Paul Goldschmidt to some two year deal at the end of his career, because he's a name people have heard of. And it doesn't cost a ton. And then they sign like two arms like a, you know, Nick Pavetta, Trevor Williams type pitcher. Like to me, that's like the most realistic way this ends, right? Is like Nick Pavetta gets some money, maybe Williams is back or another guy like him, that they go get a goldschmidt type. They trade for like a Jake Burger, and they call it a day, like that's kind of how I could see this thing going. I don't want it to go that way. That's definitely my fear, but that's kind of where we are. I just know that if they're not more aggressive, if they're not more active, if they don't bring in a big fish or two, like I think fans have the right to just be livid. Yeah. And I mean, to Mike Rizzo's credit, he's done a really good job of rebuilding this system. And when he's went out and spent on some starting pitching, I know Patrick Corbin, his last five years have not been great. He was a big integral role in the 2019 World Series. And so regardless of how you feel like winning a World Series after you sign a guy, that bounces a hit to me. Max Scherzer is one of, if not the greatest free agent signing in the history of baseball, having something like that on your record. So I would trust what he's going to do if he wants to go, because I can understand like you look at some of the names that are going to be out there for free agency. I wouldn't say they would be in on this guy, but like a Blake Snell, that comes with inherent risk of say you pay top of the market money for this guy. He's fantastic. He won the Cy Young last year. He's really, really good. Is he going to be able to do that for the next or for the entirety of his contract? Who knows? But you've seen Rizzo be able to do things in the past. And I think that Rizzo is a really, really good GM. And so I just hope that ownership gives him the green light to go be a general manager of a big market team. Stop back. I came from a small market when I worked in Milwaukee, DC ain't Milwaukee Milwaukee has excuses for not spending big time money, DC doesn't. So I'm just hoping that they give him the green light to say, hey, whatever you think you need to go improve this ball club to go one another world series. Whether it's going after Soto again, I don't know that that's real. But if it is, go for it. If it's going after a Corbin Burns, go for it. Give him the green light and let Rizzo go cook. And I think you could see this team go in the right direction. But they're going to have to give him the green light. And I don't know that any of us feel great that they're going to give him the full green light. It's kind of like you said, maybe giving him a yellow light and saying, well, just be a little bit cautious and spend in the middle. And if they can continue to spend in the middle and maybe they can find some ways. But I don't know that when this team was at its best grants, obviously you had a guy like Strouper who was a number one overall pick, but they they supplemented some guys to free agency Corbin, Scherzer, and those weren't middle of the market guys. They didn't win a world series with middle of the market kind of guy in terms of who they brought in a free agency. They had some other dudes, but Scherzer's front end, he was a top of the market guy. Patrick Corbin was the most sought after that year. So if they're going to it want to win a world series, if they're serious about that, give him the green light, let him go make some decisions and sign some guys. I do think that if they are not green lighting contracts and money and free agency for Rizzo, that maybe he pounces on value players that are really good in trades with his system that he's now built. You know, basically that is a loophole to getting a lot better. I've talked about this a lot in the rotation, right? I don't think a guy like Scoobles available anymore because the Tigers have turned themselves into a world series contender, but a pitcher like, let's think, maybe like a Garrett Crochet as an example. If they wanted to really bring in their Scherzer, you know, their ace, so to speak, something like that could be fun. Now it would take a hell of a package that would include your top guys. But like, what about like Brent Rooker as an example who hit 39 home runs was basically a six war player this year, drove in 110 for the A's had like a 930 ops and a 165 OPS plus. Would you want to trade for a guy like that? If it meant you're giving up Susana in a four player package or Sakura in a four player package. If Sakura for me is probably the only guy in the system that's off limits, to be honest, but otherwise I'm all for like, for a Rooker for a star, I would be happy to package three or four of my top six or seven guys together to go get a real stud. If that's what it took, I think Sakura might be the one guy and you know, I've just kind of been in love with that guy since day one, but that is probably a guy that I wouldn't trade. Yeah, I agree, Sakura to me is untouchable, you know, Brady house would need to bring back somebody substantial. But yeah, I think if that's the route you have to go, go for it. The only thing is like you talk about, you need top of line guys, like you're looking through these rosters and you know, maybe you look at a team like Kansas City is the exception. These other teams have studs like, you know, as we're recording, we're watching the Padres and the Dodgers. Maybe they live in a different stratosphere than a lot of these teams, but you're looking at, you know, a Michael King, for example, as someone that they got in the Soto trade, who's a really, really good pitcher that they were able to find something and kind of unlock him a little bit. He's turning into an absolute stud, but you look on the other side, obviously spent some money and you bring in top tier guys, like it's star stud at lineups and you have James Wood potentially being a star, you have Dylan Cruz potentially being a star. You've done a really good job of adding guys that are the filler type of players like I was talking about that can fit as a three through a five in the rotation, the DJ hers and some of these guys can even pitch better than that at times, which is great. But they need that star. And if it's going to cost, you know, a ton, maybe that's what they're going to have to do. If they're not going to to spend the money, it's going to cost you either in money or it's going to cost you in prospects. Maybe that's what they have to do, but at some point they're going to have to go get somebody. You know, I think the easiest decision, the best way to do it is to just spend some money and go get somebody. And this is the off season to do it like we laid out. So I don't necessarily feel incredibly confident, but we've seen Rizzo do a really good job with these mid tier sort of trades where, you know, especially at the deadline, we've talked about it. But I'm intrigued to see if he needs to go big game hunting in the trade market versus the free agent market, what do you be able to do as well? Yeah, totally. All right, before we get out of here and we will do another pod coming up in short order fear, not, but we should give our picks for October. We're actually, as we're recording watching this unbelievable Dodgers Padres game. I think this is the best rivalry in sports right now professionally. It's like hockey man. The players just hate each other's guts and you just don't see that in pro sports very much. It's really, really cool. It's must watch. But I think the Padres get out of this series. I think they get to the NLCS probably against the Mets. And I think the Padres go to the World Series on the American League side. I don't really have a good feel for the Yankees Royal Series at all. I'll just bet on talent and say the Yankees win, but you know, maybe that's silly because I think the Royals, you know, are just feel like that the more likely team to come out of that series at this point, but I'll say Cleveland gets to the LCS and beats either of them. And I've got Padres, Guardians in the World Series and I'll say the Padres win it all. What's your bracket look like? Yeah, I think we agree nationally. It seems like the Mets are a team of destiny as much as I hate it. That series is just not fun for a Nationals fan. No Nationals fan in good faith can ever cheer for the Phillies and yet you kind of want the foods to end this stupid magical run that the Mets are on. So I just need either one of those teams to get bounced in the NLCS feels like the Padres just with the pitching staff, like that's something, you know, I've kind of forgot about just how dominant pitching can be. And obviously 2019 that Nationals team was dominant with pitching. When you have pitching, whether it's Michael King and Dylan Sees and obviously they lost Musgrove, but they have some studs in the starting rotation to go along with a nasty bullpen. I mean, I don't know that we're given a preller of credit for what he did this off season, but regardless, I got to go with the Padres there. They'll probably take on the Mets. I'll go with the Padres. I hate to copy you on that, but they're probably going to the world series. And then on the American League side, I think the Yankees will beat the Royals. I think that you look at the Guardians. I think they'll find a way to stop the hot Tigers and I'll take the Yankees to beat the Guardian ALCS. So Padres Yanks and I'll go with the Padres. It just when you have a good pitching staff like that, you feel good in any game that you're in. So I'll take the Padres to win it all just like you. 2025 is going to be different. We'll both have the Nat's winning the world series. I'm quite sure. All right. That'll do it for a Boston loose baseball episode 153. Thanks for checking us out. Next time we'll give you our predictions. We'll get in detail on some of the guys we want to see the Nat's go after in the off season. We'll also do a debrief on how things were in the system and full breakdown on how all the prospects fared this year as we get our off season started here on Boston loose baseball. So subscribe rate reviews spread the word. We will continue to turn these out for Nat's fans. Warm me up as the weather gets cooler and hopefully won't be long before we're showing back up at a West Palm Beach until then enjoy playoff baseball.