The war in the Middle East is dominating Australian politics.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton spent the week attacking Prime Minister Anthony Albanese – claiming he disrespected the Jewish community when he included calls for de-escalation and a ceasefire in a condolence motion to mark the one-year anniversary of October 7.
But there are signs that Dutton’s attacks aren’t landing, and that he’s become too focused on the Middle East conflict at the expense of pressing issues closer to home.
Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno on the indirect ways the Middle East conflict could shape life here in Australia – and the outcome of the election.
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Guest: Columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno.
From Schwartz Medea, I'm Daniel James. This is 7am. The war in the Middle East is dominating Australian politics. Peter Dutton has spent the week going hard against the Prime Minister, saying he disrespected the Jewish community when he called for the de-escalation and a ceasefire in his condolence motion on October 7. But there are signs that Dutton's attacks aren't landing, and it's become too focused on the Middle East conflict, at the expense of pressing issues close to the home. Today, columnist for the Saturday paper, Paul Bonjourno, on the indirect ways the Middle East conflict could shape life here in Australia and the outcome of the election. It's Friday, October 11. Paul, thanks for joining us. I want to start with the condolence motion in Parliament at the start of the week to mark the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. Can you tell me what the motion said? Hi, Daniel. Well, the motion had 15 statements. Make it the call to the Prime Minister. Thanks very much, Mr Speaker. I move that the House of Representatives reiterate its unequivocal condemnation of Hamas's terror attacks on Israel. The first four condemned unequivocally the Hamas massacre, the taking of hostages, and the brutal attacks on hundreds of other innocent Israelis on that day. It called for the immediate release of the hostages condemned anti-Semitism and stood with Jewish Australians who have been affected by it. But it then went on to call for a ceasefire and regional de-escalation. It's attacks. K stresses the need to break the cycle of violence and supports international efforts to de-escalate for a ceasefire in Gaza and in Lebanon and for lasting peace and security for Israeli, Palestinian, Lebanese and all people in the region. The motion went broader, recognizing that there are many others in Australia deeply distressed by the conflict beyond October 7, and it warned the undermining of social cohesion risks Australia's domestic security. And the Prime Minister went on, quote, "every civilian life matters, every Palestinian, every Lebanese, every single innocent life." That is the truth we must hold on to. The truth of a shared humanity of the hope that peace is possible and the belief that it belongs to all people. To quote the great Dr Martin Luther King, "Darkness cannot drive out darkness. Only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate. Only love can do that." I commend the resolution to the House. The motion passed the House with 85 votes. There were 54 against the entire Liberal and National parties and three from the crossbench. The Four Greens abstained. Of course, all the action was known in the House of Representatives. The motion then went to the Senate. And it was there that there was quite a kerfuffle. Lydia Thorpe, now an independent she marched into the chamber, screaming out. The reason we are advocating for a minister on peace is in your seat. And the Green Senators held up placards and defiance of the standing orders and angering the President of the Senate. The demanding sanctions now on Israel. Senator Thorpe, it is inappropriate to come in here. Senator Thorpe, come to order. Senator Thorpe, take your seat. Senator Thorpe, take your seat. The issue in the Senate is still unresolved. So the coalition in the Greens didn't support the motion. What did they say? Well, the Greens' leader Adam Bant was critical of Albanese for not allowing amendments that would not give sympathy, but condemnation of Israel, hardly fitting in with the purpose of the day. But Bant was uncompromising in his condemnation of the ongoing slaughter, as he calls it, and critical that war crimes were not condemned. Well, opposition leader Peter Dutton was at the polar opposite end of the argument. This motion was supposed to be about October 7, about the loss of human life in the circumstances that we've just graphically outlined and that people across the world now come to understand. I propose to the Prime Minister a motion which was balanced and objective. Dutton refused to back the motion. He said the original intent of the motion was to mark the loss of 1200 Israeli lives. This government has sought to walk both sides of the street in relation to what has been a very divisive debate for our country. It's what in part has given rise to the anti-Semitism that we've seen in university campuses, but across society more generally. He said the Prime Minister, unlike his Labour predecessors, didn't have the decency to respect the Jewish community today. And for that Prime Minister, you should stand condemned. We have put to this Prime Minister a more than reasonable position. Dutton's position since October 7 last year has given Israel unquestioning support. He rarely acknowledges the loss of Palestinian life and supports ongoing war until Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are routed. But it should be remembered that Elbanese bent over backwards trying to get bipartisanship on this motion. There were meetings on the weekend and even on Tuesday morning the Prime Minister met the opposition leader twice, trying to convince him to come on board and Dutton refused point blank. He tried to blame Elbanese for this failure in bipartisanship. Well, I personally don't think that that passes the pub test. Well, the independent member for Wentworth Allegra Spender, she also didn't back the motion. Hers is the seat with the largest Jewish community in the country. I wish that we as a parliament could come together and lead unitedly. I would have supported this motion had it been separated into two motions, one on October 7, one recognising the pain that the last year had brought. She criticised her colleagues in parliament for not being able to find common ground. I am once again disappointed by this House and the politicisation of this issue because the country is looking for us to come together. The country is hurting. There are people who have lost friends and families across our communities. They are hurting and we are not helping these people. This is obviously a tricky issue for the government. How would you describe the political calculations they are making when they're talking about this war? Well, Daniel, of course, no matter what the politicians want you to believe, there are always political calculations. Dutton accuses Albanese of selling out Israel to appease Arab and Muslim voters, particularly in Western Sydney with two and possibly three seats in play. But it's also clear that Dutton has his eye on three seats as well, with significant Jewish numbers, two held by teal independence and one held by Labour on a knife edge in Melbourne. And the issue is particularly fraught for Labour internally. We were reminded of that on Wednesday when Senator Fatima Payman, who quit Labour earlier this year over its refusal to immediately recognise Palestine, announced she's forming a new party called Australia's Voice. And it's clearly aimed at Labour voters. There's growing sentiment in the left of the Labour Party for the Palestinian cause, but even there, no one disputes Israel has a right to defend itself. And in saying that, they realise, as cabinet minister Mark Butler, who by the way is from the left of the party, as he said on Monday, that right clearly involves the use of force. The line the government formally draws is that force must be used within the norms of international law. And Paul, as politicians fought over words elsewhere in parliament, some Palestinian strains front of the media, what happened at that press conference? Well, sort of the Greens and Lydia Thorpe, the former Green and Fatima Payman, well, they turned up with the Palestinians at Parliament House to say, look, this isn't only about words, it's about real people. That this is a press conference where you've just heard for the last 45 minutes to the impacts of the genocidal state of Israel and what they have done. And you're asking questions about emotion, you're asking questions about Israel having the right to self-defense? Trying to give a dimension to the view they hold that the whole conflict is not only regrettable, but reprehensible and is a human catastrophe. There were massive protests last weekend and there had been massive protests throughout the last 12 months. Thousands of people gathering to show their support for Palestine. And thousands also gathering to commemorate the attacks on Israel a year ago. What does this tell you about how big an issue this is in the minds of voters right now? Well, research by the Labour Party finds that while a majority of Australians, probably around 70 to 75% are aware of the conflict, they see it as over there and regrettable, but it doesn't really concern us. So it doesn't have a broad resonance in that sense. The Labour thinks that around 10% of Australians are particularly involved and exercised, and these would be people on the Jewish and Palestinian side with relatives in Gaza or in Israel. Now, an essential poll this week found about 56% of Australians are satisfied with Albanese's response to the Israel-Gaza War, and a separate resolve poll in the age found 51% of Australians don't want the government to take sides in the conflict. They certainly don't want any form of military involvement, either sending military equipment, 67% were against that, or sending military support, 72% were against that. So with that in mind, Dutton could be misfiring. Dutton is doing what he accused Albanese of doing in the voice referendum, focusing on one issue at the expense of bigger issues for voters struggling to make ends meet. After the break, how the conflict might shape politics here in a surprising and indirect way? [Music] Want to impress your loved ones with the ultimate gift? Create a bottle of personalized Archie Rose Australian Whiskey, Gin or Vodka. Select your blend, create your label, and complete it with a message on the back. Head to archierose.com.au to start creating. Paul, the conflict in the Middle East is dominating politics here at home. Despite some evidence that for most voters, it isn't top of mind. We're gearing up for an election sometime early in the next year. So can you tell me about how this issue is likely to impact the result? Well, I guess that remains to be seen. Besides Wentworth in Sydney, there are two seats in Melbourne, potentially in play, Kuyong and McNamara. Kuyong took in a big swag of Jewish votes from the abolished seat of Higgins. Well, independent Manique Ryan will hope the chances are protected by Dutton's failure to develop serious policies on climate change and energy that certainly played a part in Ryan, winning Kuyong in the first place. In McNamara, Labour incumbent Josh Burns, himself Jewish, has told worried branch members he's confident he can hold on with many Jewish greens in the seat, now rejecting the party. But this week, Joe Biden let's slip that Israel could target Iran's oil production and export facilities. Verify some of your comments yesterday with regard to strikes on Iranian oil facilities. What did you mean by them given some of the reactions for a senior market? Look, the Israelis have not concluded how they're going to do in terms of a strike. That's under discussion. Biden's so worried he's trying to talk Netanyahu out of bombing Iran's oil facilities. Well, you'd have to say the Israeli Prime Minister hasn't shown much of any inclination to take notice of the US President in the past 12 months and is unlikely to begin heating him now, even though it's been widely reported on Thursday morning, there was an intense phone discussion between Netanyahu and Biden. Until the phone call today, US officials tell NBC News that Israeli leaders had not briefed the US on the specific details of their retaliatory response against Iran, even as the Pentagon discussed the possibility of supporting any potential military action. Join me now. Financial journalist Alan Collas says if that happens, there would be an epic inflationary bust similar to the 1973 oil shock. Colla points out that destroying Iran's facilities on Karg Island, 25 kilometers off the coast, would destroy only 3% of global production. But it would be a very different story if Iran retaliated by taking out Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirates oil production capacity as it's threatened to do if attacked. The 1973 oil shock had badly impacted the global economy, and a similar disruption to oil supplies, given that we now import all of them, would redefine the debate over cost of living and energy policy in Australia. There's no doubt about that. So that was the case, then, Paul, that this ends up impacting people's cost of living here in Australia right before an election. How do you think that will shape the way the election is fought? Well, rationally, given the current scientific alarm over global warming, it should give weight to relying even more urgently on Australia's abundant sources of wind and solar energy. Our vulnerability to imported fossil fuels for our transport needs would be significantly lessened if we were further down the path of electrification. But you know, we're yet to see what energy policies the coalition will take to the next election. We should remember nuclear is at least three elections away, if ever. And in the latest batch of opinion polls, analyst Kevin Bonham sees an improvement for labor, giving it an aggregate edge. That could be bolstered by rising consumer confidence and an even healthier budget position thanks to Chinese demand for iron ore. And Daniel, no doubt, Elbanizi on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Lao this week, will express his gratitude to China's Premier Li Chang, the Beijing's latest economic stimulus policies, while I have no doubt at the same time keeping his fingers crossed that the Middle East conflict doesn't dramatically impact global oil energy suppliers. Well, thank you so much for your time. Let's do this again soon. Thank you, Daniel. Bye. [Music] Also in the news today, the Deputy Prime Minister's Chief of Staff claims she's being forced out of her job after raising complaints of bullying against her colleagues. Joe Tanwasky claims that while she's still currently employed as Chief of Staff, she has been ostracised and unable to access her office without giving 24 hours notice since June this year. During question time, the Deputy Prime Minister said he had upheld Ministerial Code of Conduct, which requires ministers to uphold the highest workplace standards, including a safe and respectful workplace culture. Tanwasky has not made allegations of bullying against the Deputy Prime Minister. A New South Wales police are currently investigating more than 80 cases of alleged coercive control. The new data comes after coercive control was declared a criminal offence in New South Wales back in July of this year. So far, only one person has been charged by New South Wales police for the crime. 7am is a daily show from Schwartz Media in the Saturday paper. It's produced by Shane Anderson, Zoltan Fecho and Zaya Atangaral. A technical producer is Atticus Basto. We are edited by Chris Dangate and Sarah McVee. Eric Jensen is our Editor-in-Chief. Mixing by Travis Evans. Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio. 7am is hosted by Ruby Jones and myself, Daniel James. We'll be back on Monday with the first episode in a special three-part series. This is Alice Springs. See you then. [Music] [Music]
