There’s a greater than 50 per cent chance that there will be a terrorist attack – or a planned attack – in Australia in the next year.
That’s the reality behind the head of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation’s recent decision to upgrade the nation’s terror threat level to “probable”.
So the need for all states and territories to be working on a united strategy with the federal government to prevent terrorist attacks is greater than ever.
But that’s not what’s happening. The states and territories have taken the unprecedented step of abandoning the Albanese government’s planned counter-terrorism strategy, in favour of figuring it out themselves.
Today, special correspondent for The Saturday Paper Jason Koutsoukis, on why the national strategy on counterterrorism has collapsed – and what it means for our safety.
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Guest: Special correspondent for The Saturday Paper Jason Koutsoukis
So, Jason, this story, it's quite a scoop. Thanks, Ruby. It certainly is, and just one of those things where someone called me said they had a story they wanted to brief me about and suggested we make for a beer, so we did. And so, what did this source say to you? So, what they told me is that there's been a complete breakdown between the states and territories and the federal government over how to handle counterterrorism, which obviously is a huge deal. And I was pretty blown away and wondered if this really had happened, so I started digging into it. From Schwartz Media, I'm Ruby Jones. This is 7 a.m. There's a greater than 50% chance that there'll be a terrorist attack or a planned attack in Australia in the next year. That's the reality behind the head of AZO's decision recently to upgrade the terror threat level to probable. So, the need for all states and territories to be working hand-in-hand with the federal government is greater than ever. But that's not what's happening. The states and territories have taken the unprecedented step of abandoning the albanese government's planned counterterrorism strategy in favor of figuring it out themselves. Today, Special Correspondent for the Saturday paper, Jason Kotzukus, on why they're doing that and what it means for our safety. It's Friday, October 4. Jason, after you got this tip about a breakdown in counterterrorism planning, tell me what you discovered. Well, firstly, that, yes, there had been a breakdown between the states and the territories and the Commonwealth, and that the federal government was now pursuing its own counterterrorism strategy without the states and territories. This strategy has been underway for the past two years. The last one was released, I think, in February 2022. But given the fast-changing nature of the threats that we face, it's really important that these counterterrorism strategies are updated to counter that evolving threat. And this decision by the Commonwealth to pursue its own strategy really contradicts this principle of national unity. And I think senior people in the government know this is a big problem. And senior Albanese government official told me that at all levels, this is a class to fact. Right. Okay. That's a federal government official saying that to you. So who is responsible then for the breakdown, the clear breakdown in this working relationship? So I think for this particular strategy, government insiders are pointing to the center for counterterrorism coordination, this is a unit within the Department of Home Affairs. And they described it as being ground zero for the problems surrounding the development of this new strategy. Same advisor told me that, you know, really there's a lack of trust in the CCTC and its leadership, and it's got so bad that key national security agencies such as ASIO and the Australian Federal Police were no longer exchanging the vital information with the coordination center that is needed for it to function properly and that this lack of trust is really undermining its ability to lead Australia's counterterrorism framework. Another national security policy expert that I spoke to who's got very close ties to the government said that making matters worse is the fact that this Department is really distracted by the issue of immigration, that immigration is burning a hole in home affairs. And I think another complication here is that there are rumors of a tense relationship between the head of the department and the new minister, Tony Burke. Okay. So you have this center for counterterrorism coordination that's within the Department of Home Affairs and people say that it's not working as it should. And then you also have what seems like a breakdown in the relationship between the minister and the head of the department. So how important is home affairs and what role does it play in our national security? This is actually the heart of it, Ruby. There is a big problem with home affairs as a department right now, and that is that there is a lack of trust from the Albanese government towards this department. Now I should mention I actually worked for Clara Neil when she was home affairs minister before this reshuffle. I was her media advisor for nearly two years. And while it isn't really relevant to how I came to this story, it did give me an insight into how that department operates and how it has changed over time. So home affairs, as we know it, it is basically the brainchild of Mike Pozzolo. Mike Pozzolo was the longtime boss at home affairs, and he's the person who turned it into this powerful ministry encompassing ASIO, the AFP, immigration, and cybersecurity policy. Australia's security agencies are getting their biggest shakeup in decades. The prime minister's announced he'll give the immigration minister Peter Dutton a new super portfolio with responsibility for Australia's spy agency ASIO and the federal police. He was the department head when Peter Dutton was the minister, and he had a pretty spectacular fall from grace last year when it was found that he had acted in properly in the role of the secretary of home affairs. We've got breaking news out of camera this morning. The prime minister has confirmed that Mike Pozzolo has been sacked from his role as the home affairs secretary, live to treaty. Now Mike Pozzolo is gone, Peter Dutton has gone, but Labor are now in charge, and they have been very keen to change the shape of this department. The attorney general, Mark Dreyfus in particular, has been keen to lessen its power. First, they took the AFP out of home affairs and put it under the control of the AG, and then they removed ASIO too, also putting it back in the AG's portfolio. So that really just leaves immigration, cyber security policy, and national security as the big things that home affairs does. I think the big problem is that if you are responsible for national security, but you don't also have oversight of ASIO and the AFP, that's a recipe for a communication breakdown. One of my key sources for this story told me, and I'll just quote this person, from the point of view of the states, it's a frustration with the Commonwealth, and particularly home affairs, over the way this strategy has been developed, which has been backwards and forwards, on again, off again, that sort of thing, and I think eventually the states and territories just thought, well, fuck it. Coming up after the break, Australia's threat level and how the states and territories should be working with the Commonwealth. Melbourne Recital Centre celebrates 15 years of living and breathing live music, with performances by local powerhouses and international stars. Melbourne Recital Centre, where live music lives, explore the program at MelbourneRecital.com.au. So Jason, you've been reporting on the troubles at home affairs and how that relates to this extraordinary decision that states and territories have made to essentially go their own way when it comes to planning for counter-terrorism. This seems like it could become a big problem when you take into account what we're hearing from ASIO about possible threats to our national security. Well, it's more important than ever for the states and Commonwealth to be on the same page, especially after the Director General of Security Mike Burgess recently raised Australia's national terrorism threat level from possible to probable. We are seeing an increase in extremism. More Australians are being radicalised and radicalised more quickly. More Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies and more Australians are willing to use violence to advance their cause. At the time, Mike Burgess said that ASIO's decision to raise the threat level reflected the degrading security environment. The threats are becoming harder to predict and identify. The drivers of radicalisation, grievance, extremism are growing and interacting in ways we've not seen before. A threat level of probable means that in ASIO's assessment, there's a greater than 50% chance of an onshore terrorist attack or terrorist attack planning occurring within the next 12 months. Mike Burgess said that we are seeing an increase in extremism and that more Australians are being radicalised and radicalised much more quickly. Given that then, how should the federal government and state governments be working together on this? What would it look like if this was going well? Yeah, it's a great question. I spoke to Lydia Kalil about this. She's the program director for transnational challenges at the Lowy Institute and she told me that while it's often the case that these high-level documents tend to be removed from the general public's awareness, they are incredibly useful for helping governments prioritise programmes and spending. The main argument for a national counterterrorism strategy that is fully inclusive of state and territory governments is based on the fact that not only are state government law enforcement agencies the first responders when it comes to terrorism incidents, but they are crucial when it comes to identifying people who are displaying worrying behaviour early on in their lives, whether that be through secondary schools, psychology support programmes, countering violent extremism programmes, these are all things that are run by the states and as a national security policy expert told me, the people who are conceiving ideas linked to violent extremism who are joining these movements actually don't often come to the attention of law enforcement through security processes. They come to their attention through education, health and other programmes that are all run by the states and territories. So you must be hardwired with the states and territories. You cannot have a commonwealth counterterrorism strategy. The notion of going it alone is absolutely nuts. Okay, so there's this sort of looming disconnect between the state-based agencies who actually in practice identify terror threats and then the federal government who I suppose have the resources to act on those threats. So did you talk to the states about this, about why they won't take part in what the Commonwealth is proposing? Yes, I did. I spoke with the New South Wales Minister for Police and Counterterrorism, Yasmin Catley, who told the Saturday paper that the forthcoming Counterterrorism Strategy is a Commonwealth-led strategy, which all states and territories, including New South Wales, are involved in. She said, "Look, we all work collaboratively and we'll continue to do so on this very important issue." So I think, yeah, that sounds great, but I think what it really means is that this is a Commonwealth strategy. That's what one government adviser who I read that quote out to told me. And that person said, "This is not a national strategy because the states don't want to be part of it. They are being consulted on its development, but they have not signed on to it." And that's why this strategy will not be called a national Counterterrorism strategy. It's going to have this title of being a Commonwealth Counterterrorism Strategy. Victoria's Minister for Police, Anthony Carbines, did not respond to requests for comment. I spoke to them quite early in the week, Minister Carbine's office, and they initially sent Kanon providing a comment. But by Thursday afternoon, they decided that wasn't wise. And I think it's worth noting that almost all the state and territories are run by Labor governments, and the Commonwealth can't even get Labor government agencies and Labor governments across the line. Yeah, it's telling. So other than calling it a quote, unquote, "class to fuck," do you have a sense from anyone senior in the federal government about how they are thinking about this and what they might do about it? Well, because this proposal to release a counterterrorism strategy without the states has not yet gone to Cabinet, so there's no formal government decision yet to go down this path. The senior government official told me that it's quite possible that the Prime Minister and other members of Cabinet's National Security Committee remain unaware that there is a problem, or even whether Tony Burke himself was even fully up to speed with what's happening inside his department. But I think there's a big political risk here which has to be considered, because if a major terrorist incident was to occur, after Asia has raised the terrorism threat level from possible to probable, and this government has been found not to have put in place a proper national counterterrorism coordination strategy, then the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, is going to cop the blame for that from the opposition. And Peter Dutton and opposition Home Affairs spokesman James Patterson, they're going to be all over this. Jason, thank you so much for your time. Thanks Robie, great to talk. Also in the news today, advocates say they're concerned about some of the new restrictions on how NDIS participants can spend their money that have come into effect. The federal government has released lists detailing what people can and can't claim, with costs including rent, fertility treatments, gaming therapy and animal therapy not available. NDIS Minister Bill Shorten said the update would help return the scheme to its original purpose, and ensure it wasn't paying for supports that should be covered by Australia's other care systems, or shouldn't be covered at all. And Foreign Minister Penny Wong is urging Australians to take any available route out of Lebanon, with the government confirming it has secured 500 extra seats on commercial flights for Saturday. They're estimated to be 15,000 Australians currently in Lebanon. The announcement comes as Israel has renewed its bombardment of the capital Beirut, with airstrikes yesterday killing at least six people. 7am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and The Saturday Paper. It's hosted by me Ruby Jones and Daniel James. It's produced by Shane Anderson, Zoltan Fettcher and Zaya Tungrel. Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow, we're edited by Chris Dengate and Sarah McPhee. Eric Jensen is our editor-in-chief, our mixer is Travis Evans, our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio. That's all for this week, thanks for listening. [Music] [BLANK_AUDIO]
