Gateway to Baseball Heaven: A St. Louis Cardinals Podcast

GTBH 3/3/24: What, Us Worry?

Every week, two of the Best Fans in Baseball (TM) bring you all the news and analysis you need about the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards were rained out on Sunday, meaning that they didn't get a chance to finally hit a home run. You'll have to judge if Daniel (@C70) and David (@iPopEditor) picked up the slack. The guys talk about some early stats that aren't flattering and their level of concern over them. They try to make some sense out of the Brandon Crawford signing. And Daniel doesn't let David get by without addressing his prediction from last week. Plenty in here for you!

Duration:: 39m
Broadcast on:: 03 Mar 2024
Audio Format:: mp3

(upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) Good evening and welcome into another edition of Gateway to Baseball Heaven. I'm your host, David Hoppe. @c70 with me as always. David Judd's @IPOP editor coming to you on a day where we're doing more works than the Cardinals did. And I mean, I think that's fair, right? I mean, that's, some days this so far it feels like maybe we're often doing more works than the Cardinals did, right? This pre-training has definitely not been the master show that last year's was, which may be a good thing. - Well, if you're fan of home runs or even just runs for that matter, then yes, I think you could make that argument that a lot of people are putting in more work than the Cardinals right now. But it's, it's spring, no need to freak out, I guess. But are you, do you have any concerns at this point? Like the no home run thing, is that, is that a thing right now or is this kind of one of those like no big deal starters don't even play that much? Forget about it. - But I mean, I don't know that it's a big deal, but it's weird, right? I mean, we've watched games and it's also, it's not like the Cardinals haven't given up home runs. So it's not like nobody's hitting home runs in that ballpark. But you would think it's Florida. I mean, there's those days for the winds just blowing out and a pop fly, the second base ones are going into the seats. We've seen a few balls. I remember seeing one that, I think it was the Mets hit against the Cardinals. It barely got over the wall. Jordan Walker almost was able to bring it back, but it went over. And you think after what, close to 10 games now or whatever, right? That somebody, whether starter or guy trying to make an impression would have gotten a hold of something. It hasn't happened. And again, does that mean they're going to be a terrible offense the rest of the way? No, I don't think so. But it is just a little bit surprising that, you know, Andrew Kissner has more home runs than the whole Cardinals team. Yeah, yeah, you think somebody would just get lucky. And other teams have been hitting them out against the Cardinals. Pete Alonzo put a ball in the hospital with one that he hit off of them. He's a big strong guy. I mean, he is, yeah. So yeah, you would think at some point, and I know the Cardinals have had a couple balls like hit the wall and go pretty deep and get knocked down by the wind. But at this point, yeah, just, you close your eyes and swing and get lucky at some point. So I'm not worried at this point. I know people may want to freak out and, you know, can we blame Jeff Albert still? Who do we blame? Do we blame Jeff Albert not being there? Did they change up everybody's swing? It's going to happen. You know, it probably would happen today if they had actually played. If this is regular season and we're about eight games in, yeah, then I'm a little bit worried. But right now with these games not counting for anything and guys working on things at the plate, I'm not overly concerned. If they end spring and no one's hit one, then yeah, my alert meter's gone up a little bit. - Okay. Well, that leads me to a tweet that I saw from Ben Sarudy a little while ago, SDL fan BC7 on Twitter and will be joining me on meeting the immutable in a couple of weeks. But, and he points out that right now, the Cardinal hitters in spring have the lowest slugging, the fourth lowest walk rate and the sixth lowest average exit velocity, while the Cardinal pitchers have the lowest strikeouts for nine and the second lowest strikeout rate, which again, strikeout percentage sorry, which again is a maybe a little bit concerned and given the focus of the off season. So you see both of those things. Does any of that concern you hear this deep in the spring? - Not really and maybe it should, but it doesn't. Again, if it's two weeks into the regular season and we're seeing that then maybe, but I think I heard that Sunny Gray through six different pitches when during his start, not the greatest start, but I don't think he's going to throw six different pitches during his start, starting the regular season. I think he was trying out a couple things, just kind of experimenting 'cause now's the time to do it. You don't do it during the regular season. And so, yeah, pitchers may be working on some things. They're not completely polished. But I'm not putting much stock in overall stats, at least this early. Now, things go a little bit longer than during the season or at least in spring training. Yeah, that's when guys start kind of trying to get ready for the season. But I don't think for me, it's going to hit 375. I don't think Newt is going to hit 444 for the season. So we're for down on some other things and we should be really high on those things too. It's still at a time of small sample size, guys trying to do things. Starter sometimes are only in there for one or two at bat. So they're not even getting into a groove. I'm not worried at this point. And that's absolutely fair. I will say though, what does concern me, just looking at those numbers. I mean, I've been seeing a lot of stuff and it is early, things in change, all that kind of stuff. But you bring in a lot of relievers that are supposed to be striking out batters, right? And they're not going to be typically working on a whole lot of things because relievers try to keep it simple, right? One, two pitches, you know, they're kind of not saying that they're full bore right now. But still, you wouldn't expect a whole lot of change. And given the way innings are right now, relievers should make a pretty good impact on team strikeout per nine because the starters aren't going deep and things of that major. So to see that, again, you know, you bring in Lanceland, you bring in Coll Gibson and you're not looking for huge strikeouts. But you're bringing in, you know, Riley O'Brien and Edder Kitrich and Middleton, all these guys that you do expect to strike out batters. So to have that K for nine be lower than anybody else, again, very early, it is not necessarily a reason for concern, but it is something that seems a little off given the focus of the winner. Yeah, maybe so, but at the same time, if we're going to look at that, let's also look at their ERA. Kitrich O'Brien, Pilante, and I think Helsley as well, all have zero ERA's at this point. So yeah, the strikeouts, if that's a concern, let's also look at the fact that they're getting guys out and they're not letting guys score. I watched Helsley pitch the other day and his stuff looked really good. I think somebody got on base maybe with a hit, but the contact that was made against him was very soft contact. I've seen some of the relievers that are just getting pop-ups or they're getting ground balls right back to the pitcher or soft ground balls to second base, things like that. So while the strikeout plays right now and that's where the emphasis is, if guys are getting outs and not giving up runs, I'm okay with that. Now, it may sound like a throwback to the let's pitch to contact philosophy that doesn't always work well, but if guys are getting very soft contact and guys and batters aren't getting the ball out of the infield, I'm okay with that. Pop-ups, foul outs, things like that, that's fine. If you're not getting the strikeouts but you're still getting the guy out, I'm okay with that. And right now they're not giving up runs. So I'm not too concerned about the strikeout thing. It's going to come back. It's gonna come back to normal because that's what these guys are and who they are. I don't think the Cardinals pitching staff or pitching coaches have made so many adjustments to them that it's gonna completely change who they are. So yeah, I think we're gonna see this come, the numbers are gonna come back to earth a little bit and they will favor the Cardinals 'cause they're gonna come back to the mean. So yeah, I'm more concerned, or I guess I should say not concerned because they're not giving up runs. So it's not that big of a deal to me. And I know there may be some analytics lovers out there who are going to just want to beat me up over that, but right now they are not giving up runs. Their stuff is playing well. - Sure, and again, it is small sample sizes and all that kind of stuff. It is just a little bit notable to be just given the focus. I don't think we'd even worry about it if it wasn't for the fact that they made the focus of bringing strikeout stuff into the organization. And if they didn't succeed at that, then you wonder about a lot of other things. But again, just a handful of games in. By this time next week, they could easily be right in the middle of the pack or even higher just because somebody comes out and strikes out the side or something like that. That can change it that quickly. And that's next week, but we probably need to address last week. Two things from last week show that, well, didn't age well. Let's talk about the first one. And that is the fact that Monday, after we spend a lot of time on Sunday talking about how the Cardinals do not need to go out and get a backup shortstop. The Cardinals go out and get a backup shortstop. Brendan Crawford, Randy Crawford, former giant, former all-star, not either one of those now. And this still just feels, I don't know. It's been a week, I don't have any big problems with it because it's not gonna make a huge deal, but I just don't know if it was a good idea. - Yeah, I think it was one of those things that didn't shock people because we heard it kind of talked about and rumored so much leading up to it. It was kind of one of those things where there's smoke, there's fire. I'm gonna say this and then I'm gonna put some more information behind it, but it makes a whole lot of sense to me. However, not everything here makes sense. I wanna go back a few weeks ago before even the Matt Carpenter signing. And I think it may have been the day before the Matt Carpenter signing, you had taken your best shot at the roster construction for the team. And you had put it out there and you had Fermine on there. And I remember saying something to you about it that it kind of surprised me that Fermine was going to actually be on the 26th man because it just seemed like with the way, with the guys they have, it seemed like he's a guy that might not be able to make the team, but it seemed like he needed to make it out of necessity. Well, then Carpenter comes along and it seems like Fermine's bumped and so that's not a thing. But you kind of put a bug in my head when you did that that had not left. And I was not convinced that the Cardinals were convinced that Tommy Edman would be the starting center fielder this year. I thought maybe he would play some of that, but he'd kind of be more like a super utility guy. Maybe more along the lines of like a Ben Zobrist or something like that. But the more that the Cardinals talked about Tommy Edman being the starting center fielder, the more I looked at this and said, if they don't have a backup shortstop, this doesn't make much sense. And there was some talk with Tommy Edman's the backup shortstop. Well, you don't want your starting center fielder to have to be a backup infielder, especially if your starting center fielder is still learning how to play center field. You're stretching the guy too thin, you're giving him too many things to focus on, you're giving him too many gloves that he needs to have in his bag. It just did not make any sense to me why you would have one of your starters also be your backup at a position because then you're digging yourself in a hole. If somebody goes in a slump, if somebody gets hurt, if somebody needs an off day, you're basically putting Tommy Edman out there every day, but you don't know what position you're putting him at. So it did not make any sense to me. And so the more things went on, like I said, it goes all back to that hole for being conversation where that made, started making sense to me. So the more I thought about it, the more I thought the Cardinals, if they really are committed to putting Tommy Edman in center field, they need to find a backup shortstop or at least a backup utility guy who can play shortstop in other infield positions. So all that to say, the branding Crawford deal actually does make sense to me the more that I thought about it. However, it makes the Matt Carpenter signing seem more bizarre because now you have basically locked up your bench and there is not much that can be done. If everybody is healthy, there is no spot for Alec Burleson. There's no spot for a guy like Luke and Baker or Jared Young, no matter how well they're playing. For me, no matter how well he does a spring, barring injury will not make the roster because you've got your bench locked up with Matt Carpenter, Brandon Crawford. They're not going anywhere. You're gonna have to have a backup catcher. So that spot's taken. And then that final spot is going to be like a Dylan Carlson type. And so that's where I get confused. It makes the, I know the Carpenter thing had a lot to do with leadership, but that I feel like has handcuffed the Cardinals and what they can do. And once Tommy Edmond is healthy and we don't know when that's going to be, but it's going to make this roster look very, very odd. And so while last week I said, I didn't really think the Crawford thing made sense. The more I thought about it, the more I thought, yeah, this team really does need a backup shortstop, but to go back a couple of weeks before, it makes the Matt Carpenter signing seem even more bizarre. I just, yeah, I agree. I think that maybe if they had not signed Matt Carpenter, I would be a little bit more on board with that. I'm, you know, again, they don't feel like Jose Firmin can be a shortstop at least for a lengthy period of time. But, I mean, and they should know, obviously, but it does feel like, I mean, one, the Brendan Crawford signing has seemed to inspire him, at least as you mentioned, hitting close to 400 in the spring so far. But he just wouldn't, I mean, I just don't know how important the backup shortstop is going to be again. We don't know what Mason was going to do. We don't know how he's going to be. But I think all intents are, all you expectations are that he's going to play 140, 145 games at shortstop, right? You know, it may not happen that way, but it also feels like, I know that they were having a little bit of a run on old decrepit shortstop there for a while, but it just still felt like, you know, Crawford's there now, there's a decent chance he's going to be there in, you know, late April, early May, right? Or somebody like that, that you could find somebody to come in and play shortstop or make some low-level trade or something, you know, Nick Ahmed went and signed a non-roster contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. If he doesn't make the team, you know, maybe he plays in their minor league, maybe he's a free agent, but you know, it's somebody that you can probably get for cash considerations, you know, that kind of stuff. So I just don't know that you had to go in, lock in for $2 million, a guy that has not hit for two years, whose defense has slipped significantly, according to Giants fans and to some metrics, just on the leadership thing. Now, obviously he's going to be able to hear to mentor Mason Nguyen, he comes in knowing that it's Nguyen's job, that he's not trying to take it. And Mike Matheny's not here, so hopefully that means that he won't take it. But I don't know, it just kind of feels like, and it just feels like the Cardinals don't necessarily need to make these kind of moves, and they do so anyway. You know, I mean, the Cardinals in this off season go out and claim Buddy Kennedy, but yet the first time they could actually maybe use him, a 24-year-old guy that has some potential as a backup shortstop, they immediately cut him to put Crawford on the roster. So, and the Tigers picked him up, and we'll see how that goes. So, you know, maybe he won't do anything as well, but he just feels like, I don't know. It's like as soon as they're going to go out from get that old security blanket, even if it may not be that effective. - Yeah, I get it. I actually think Nick Ahmed would have been a better signing, especially when you see that he signed a minor league contract, and maybe I'm having some recency bias, 'cause he had a three-run home run already in spring training, and I don't remember what home runs feel like. But to me, that seemed like a better deal. I think he's actually a little bit better with the bat right now, and I think he's better with the glove. I'm not convinced that Crawford is an upgrade over for me with the bat or the glove at this point. I mean, Crawford, I know he was hurt last year, but he did not hit well at all. He was a minus 14 on defensive runs saved the year before he was a minus six. Now, I will say, for me, is kind of thought as like a super utility guy for the infield, but for me, has not played much shortstop in recent years. He did early in his career, but he has basically been at second and third base, and so maybe he's not even comfortable playing shortstop, and so that could be part of it. I do think the Cardinals roster was lacking with someone that could play short, and I don't think you just wanna have a have an emergency shortstop. You gotta have that guy in there who can play as a backup, who can give win a day off, 'cause win can't play every day, and when you start the season with those eight straight, he's probably gonna need a day off somewhere in there. So you need somebody who can play shortstop every day, and I don't know why he can't do it either, too. You know what, the Cardinals might sign him. He's kind of in their age range, so. That's right, that's true. Don't put idea in him as a backup. Michael Gersh is listening. Do not give him ideas. The Iron Man is coming out of retirement. Here we go. Yeah, so yeah, I do feel like they needed somebody, but I'm just really worried that because of these majorly contracts and also because of nostalgia, they are handcuffing themselves for the long haul. You wonder if, and hopefully this doesn't happen, but you wonder if we're in June, if Matt Carpenter's hitting 167 and Brandon Crawford's hitting under 200, do they just keep those guys on the roster, or do they decide, well, we actually need to let these guys go. I think they're more likely to keep them around because leadership and stuff. But I'm just not, I feel the backup needed to happen. I don't necessarily feel that Crawford was the right guy for it. I think there were some other guys out there, like you mentioned, but I feel like they may have twitted other thumbs and kicked dirt around for a little bit, and then it was too late. There was only one guy left when they were playing musical chairs. So yeah, somebody needed to be there as a backup. Not in case when fails, but just because every position needs somebody to back up and give a day off, or if a guy gets hurt, I just don't necessarily feel that Crawford was the guy and now that bench is looking really old and kind of limited. - Yeah, I agree. I do remember for me making a pretty nice play early on, like the first second game of spring from shortstop. So yeah, I mean, that's one play. I mean, that's just one thing. So I think that it'd been interesting to see if he had to develop that, if he would have been able to do it. And again, they gotta goes with this whole idea of the Cardinals seem to be making a team that either can be stripped down really quickly if things go badly, or are not going to be part of the next great run of the Cardinals, right? I mean, this team as it's constructed is not going to be here in two years. You got wind and walker and people like that, but there's not a lot of people, Dylan Carlson may not be here in two years at the rate this is going. So a lot of other ones will not be. So I don't know. It's very weird. It's very interesting that they move so quickly on that or didn't wait until the season or wait until, now I guess it's very possible that they got some news on Tommy Edmond that they really did not expect him to make. - Yes, yeah. - A little bit, but that's going to be the thing to watch, right? I mean, it's to see just how long it is before Tommy Edmond comes back because he still hasn't swung about. I haven't seen an update in day or two, but at one time he was still weeks away from really swinging against actual pitching, which means he starts the injured list and we're probably talking home opener at best and probably mid April before he comes back, if not worse. - Yeah, and if he's out for an extended period of time, it makes the signing make more sense. I still probably wish it would have gone in a different direction. But if, I mean, if he possibly misses the first month, the first two months, I get it a little bit more. Hopefully he doesn't, but that is a possibility. I mean, you don't just pick up a bat and get ready for opening day, timing has to be there, but also there's strength. I mean, you don't know if the guy's been able to lift weights or what he's been able to do, not that he's gonna hit 35 home runs this year, but yeah, it's gonna take some time for him to get ready. What I'm very curious about is over the first two weeks, I'm curious who gets the most reps in Memphis at shortstop because that might be telling as well about who could be the future backup. I don't think we're gonna see the future starter at Memphis because I think when's gonna hold onto that job for quite a while, but I'm curious, is it for mean who starts at shortstop and plays the most? Do they puts a JC there possibly? Is there someone else that they may give more reps to? That might be telling about what the future is for the backup and for the bench and what the Cardinals are thinking, at least for this year. So that'll be something to kind of keep an eye on, especially with the wind no longer being there. They're gonna have to make some decisions. - Yeah, that will be something worth checking out as Memphis gets started soon after the majors does. All right, well then I think it's only fair for us to then move on to the second thing from last week that maybe did not age as well. - You know, I think I'm good. I think of myself. - I think so, really. - Look at the time. - I have a recollection that somebody on this podcast, and not me, has said that Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, or maybe even both, would be signed by this time. And, you know, we're, you know, halfway into, about a half an hour into our show, it's possible maybe something happened. Let me check Twitter real quick, nope, not even trending. So I think we can call this one as busted. - Actually, mine says Snell is trending right now. So 2,240, so apparently not enough. - Yeah, I am surprised. I won't go as far as shocked, because I don't want to ever be shocked by anything Scott Boris does or does not. But with two of his clients signing this week, I thought for sure that we would see one of them sign, especially because pitchers need time to get ready. Yeah, I did a little math, just a little bit ago before we came on the air. And by my estimations, if one of them or both of them, whoever, if they signed this week, then they were able to get into a game by the weekend, which probably isn't even likely. But if they were, they could potentially get in four starts before the season begins. You mentioned that that would have to be if they don't play for the Dodgers or Padres who were going to start the season in Korea a week earlier. So if you take those teams out, they would possibly get in four starts. But if next week at this time, they still have not signed or maybe just signed, you're looking at three starts max before the season begins, that's putting them in territory of not being ready for opening day or maybe fifth starter or missing a turn of the rotation or something like that. But yeah, probably not being ready. I don't know what's going on. I'd love to say that my source didn't come through on this, but my only source was me guessing, which I think that puts me in line with a lot of the so-called analyst out there. I'm pretty sure that's Jim Ballon's sources as well. I am his source, actually. I just put things out there that I think he might like, but yeah, it's very interesting. I have seen some things lately that say the Phillies could be interested in Snell if he would take a contract that's similar to Bellinger and Chapman. And you don't want to see that. You know, if the Cardinals aren't going to get one of these guys and we don't think they are, you hope that they both go to the American League. I keep waiting for Boston to make a move on Montgomery or waiting for the Angels to maybe spend ridiculously or something like that. But Snell has just kind of been a wild card. Thought he was going to the Yankees. Now it kind of seems like maybe he's not. Now there's talk of the Phillies jumping in, sure hope not. I don't know what's going to happen with these guys. I'm wondering if they're kind of thinking the same thing. Yeah, I think it's fair, right? I mean, when you see Bellinger and then Chapman both take those three-year deals and we put those in quotes because they have opt-outs after every year. So it's basically a lot of one-year deals. It gives them a little bit of security if they were terrible, but yeah, you just make you wonder that if Boris didn't, didn't misread things here because I mean, I can't remember the time 'cause I think you would say that, I mean, Stell, and once Aaron Nola signed very early and we kind of forget that Nola was even on the market, he signed so quickly back with Philadelphia. But those two in gray were the only real top of the free agent pool. And to see those two still out here, I can't imagine that we've had that kind of thing before. I can't think, I mean, Bryce Harper, you know, went into spring, I think, before he sat in the Phillies, but that was, like you said, that's a little bit different with hitters. I can't think of a pitcher that lasted Islam. I know the Cardinal St. Kyle lotion spring one time, but he wasn't exactly the, you know, the criminal crime at the time. He obviously did well for the Cardinals, don't give him your all, but he was not the guy you needed to go outside. So I can't imagine when this has happened, and I think it's probably not gonna go well for them. - Yeah, the only one that comes to mind, and you would probably have to jog my memory 'cause you're better with the history stuff, but was it Dallas Keichl that waited a while, but wasn't there like an injury involved, or something along those lines that it sounds familiar? - Yeah, but nothing of this star power of somebody waiting this long. - Unless you're Roger Clement who waited till halfway through, but that was his choice. - Right, yeah, yeah, I mean, even Kershaw has signed. Kershaw and Woodruff have deals, and they may not even pitch this year, not anytime soon. So yeah, again, like I said last week, there's still that small little tiny voice in the back of my head that's saying, maybe, maybe, like could the Cardinals grab one of these guys on a three year deal that's really a one year deal with opt outs? The answer's probably no. I look forward to them saying that they just didn't feel they could do it after signing Brandon Crawford to $2 million, that's gonna go great with fans. But yeah, I think they're so close to the luxury tax threshold that it's just not going to happen, which I say close, they're getting close to about 20 million. So if you're gonna make a deal happen, you're gonna have to backload a deal, which means that you're also going to have to make a deal that you either gotta buy out or multiple years, and that's where things just get thrown off and it's not gonna happen. So I don't think it will happen. I think at this point, I'm just hoping they go to the AL or go to a team that's not gonna be a contender. Yeah, and I also think that, I mean, I'm kind of looking at this, but I don't know if the option, I guess the buyouts are gonna be included, but they take the estimated annual value. So backloading it doesn't even help as much because it's kind of a little bit more evenly treated for luxury tax payroll issues. But yeah, I mean, they're 20, 23 million a little bit according to this estimate here on paying refs, short of that and it doesn't seem like either one of those guys is gonna come less than 20 million and then that would leave them with absolutely nothing to do at the deadline. So yeah, I mean, those two million dollars to Brandon Crawford might be the difference. And that's just, yeah, we'll keep that in mind if the Cardinals get a little too close. But you know, then again, it's like, and again, it's not our money and it's not the way that the Cardinals do business and all that kind of stuff. But it also feels like, okay, you're going over that first threshold one time by a little bit. You're not adding that much extra tax to that deal, right? And if it gets you a World Series title or gets you deep in October, you're gonna make that money back up. And with all these one-year contracts, you're probably slipping right back below it. You're not gonna be a repeat defender or anything like that. So, you know, there are arguments for ignoring that. I just don't think they have any weight in the front office of St. Louis. - Yeah, and I mean, the merchandise that you would probably get back and also the ticket sales for the playoffs if you actually make the playoffs and things like, I mean, it could easily be justified, but yeah, I just don't think it's going to happen. And then the other issue is these guys may not want to be Cardinals. The Cardinals could be trying to get a deal done and they may just be like, no, no thanks, we're not going to do it. And that kind of came out that the report that Montgomery wasn't interested in returning. I don't know how much stock to put into that. But yeah, that could be an issue as well. But I assume they're both going to pitch for somebody this year, just don't know who it is. - Yeah, I think that's going to be really pretty fascinating to see how that all shakes out and how they do, right? I mean, we've talked about how like last year, especially that the World Baseball Classic kind of interfered with not just the Cardinals but some other players and pitchers. And we've seen that kind of thing be a problem. So how does a very abbreviated short, you know, spring training, how does that affect somebody? Especially when it's not like those abbreviated spring trainings where everybody, you know, after a strike or something like that and everybody's in the same boat. When you're going to be going up against guys that have been fully on for the last three or four weeks or get an extra three or four weeks of practice and preparation, how does that work for us now in the Montgomery and then, you know, does that contract look like it's a blow up in their face because of that? I don't know. I think it's very, it's something definitely to watch whenever they do so. - Yeah, and let me throw this out to you. And this may, people may think I'm terribly wrong when I ask this, but Jordan Montgomery clearly is one of the two best pitchers left. But do you think we've gotten to the point where he may even be being overrated because he is one of the two best left and because he's coming off that World Series. Like, has the legend of Jordan Montgomery actually been elevated so high that we're now viewing him and maybe take this outside of St. Louis because fans of St. Louis watch him pitch. But if you go to other markets, are they viewing him as kind of like an ace when maybe he shouldn't be? Maybe he should be viewed as a two or three, but just because he is one of the two most attractive pitchers left on the market? - Yeah, I think there's something to that, right? I mean, if he wasn't, I mean, when he was on the market with Snell and Gray and Nola and Moto and Iminog and all these other guys, he was definitely, well, thought of mainly because of his run in Texas, but I don't think anybody necessarily expected him to be this kind of, he's gonna be getting all this kind of money. Now, it did help that he doesn't have a qualifying offer, obviously, but that's going to raise some value from the front office standpoint. It doesn't affect the fans, where the fans look at him. I think that's very possible. I mean, obviously there's also something too, the fact that Jordan Montgomery left New York and he came to St. Louis and he pitched well for St. Louis, then he kind of did step that game up a little bit in Texas, he's a younger pitcher. And yeah, if you're thinking he's gonna be an ace, you know, yeah, you're overrated, but if you're thinking he's gonna be a number two for your team, I don't know that that's too far out of line because I do think that there's some development that he's done, some changes that he's made and he's not, you know, 35 years old, which is what another reason the Cardinals haven't signed it. - Yeah, I mean, I would love to have him on the Cardinals and he would easily become the second best pitcher on that team, but yeah, I'm looking, 2021, his ERA+ was 1/12. 2022, over the entire season, we're looking at 1/13. 2023, 1/38, which is fantastic. It really is. With the Cardinals, it was 1/27, still very good. But, you know, that's one really, really good season and then two good seasons that he's put together. And so we've yet to see the consistency. Now, like you said, he's changed some things. When he got to the Cardinals, he kind of changed up how he was throwing his fastball and stuff like that. But yeah, I wonder if, you know, Boris is out there thinking he should get ace money. Fans are out there thinking that he's going to be the number one for a team or something like that. And when really he is kind of more like a low-end, two, high three, but because he is one of the only options out there and one of the more attractive options out there that fans have just overrated him and probably his own agent has overrated him and thus he still sits at home right now. - It's good possibility. I will say, you know, you did point out that he was a 113 last year, which is true overall, but he was a 126 in St. Louis. So if you're looking at the last year and a half, he's, you know, ERA plus of probably what 140 maybe because it was so high in Texas, at least in the 130s. And, you know, again, that's valuable. You're right. Maybe people are going to overrate him a little bit, but it's not like, it's not like they're taking, thinking Lance Lynn's going to be this next great thing, right? I mean, he's got a lot of value there and he could easily, well, you know, he could outperform Stell. I wouldn't be surprised if he did, honestly, just because of where they are in their careers and, you know, different approaches. I mean, he, the government is going to pitch a little bit longer and maybe not walk as many guys. So I don't know. I think it's, it's just mind boggling that those guys are still out there, which is some, like I said, it's a lot of bores and a lot of them because they're letting mores do that. But it also may just really be the front offices don't necessarily, like I said, we've talked about Blake Stell and his walk rates and his lack of depth and again, they just may not want to go that route or at least not for those kind of cost. And, you know, I don't know what the front office would not want about Montgomery, but it may be some other things that are just sticking out that, you know, we don't look at it that way, that they're like, you know, we just don't want to deal with these things at the price they're going to have to deal with them. - Yeah, and Montgomery is not a great strikeout pitcher. We get sweet contact, which is great. So if you're looking for a guy that's going to be a great strikeout pitcher, then you're not going to find it with him, but he's one of those guys that you look up and it's the fifth or sixth inning and he's given up one or two runs and, you know, your team's got to lead your teams in it. So that's what he's going to give you and he's going to give you that almost every single game, which, like I said, I would definitely love to have him. I just, the reports were out there that Boris wanted either like Nola Money or Rodon Money from last year for him. He's not in their category. Now he was better than Nola was last year, for sure, but he hasn't put together a career of that and he may be better than Nola going forward as well. But I think a lot of guys, and I do wonder if that previous season has caused a lot of reluctance because there were guys like Rodon who got a ton of money and then were hurt or didn't pitch well. And of course we had the pitch clock come in, the banning of the shift. There were a lot of variables that came in, but I think we may see some GMs and some owners that are just hesitant to spend on starting pitchers who aren't a sure thing because of some of the issues that have been out there in the past two years. - Yeah, yeah, I think that's probably true as well. So I don't know, again, very interesting to see. So, since you are obviously the person that we go to for predictions now, when do you think the Cardinals hit? Do you think the Cardinals hit a homerun this week? And when do they hit one? (laughing) - I'm scared to say that that they do because I've been wrong on so many things that it just may be cursed in the team. But yes, I need to pull up the schedule because no in the way I am, I'm gonna predict they hit a homerun on a day when they don't actually play. And last I checked, that was impossible to do. But I see they were playing Washington this week. So I'm going to make the prediction that they actually hit it on Tuesday against Minnesota. - All right. - You're not just gonna hit one, they're gonna hit three. - They're gonna fall. - So, so here comes the rain. That's what's coming. (laughing) - So we will, we will see how that goes. We'll hope that it's a little bit better than the last time. And we will check that out next week. So join us then, but until next week, for David, I'm Daniel. Good night. ♪ And the home of the brave ♪ ♪ And the home of the brave ♪ (audience cheering)