Santa Barbara Talks with Josh Molina
Santa Barbara Talks: Oscar Gutierrez vs. Tony Becerra for Santa Barbara City Council
Journalist Josh Molina breaks down the contest between incumbent Oscar Gutierrez and challenger Tony Becerra in the battle for seat on the Santa Barbara City Council in District 3. Please consider a financial contribution to support these podcasts by visiting santabarbaratalks.com. Joshua Molina is a journalist and college instructor who creates dynamic conversations on the topics of housing, politics, education, culture and business. Please hit subscribe on YouTube.
- Broadcast on:
- 15 Oct 2024
- Audio Format:
- other
The Santa Barbara City Council district three contest is suddenly gotten really interesting and somewhat competitive. And I'm going to break it all down for you. The contest between incumbent Oscar Gutierrez and challenger Tony Becerra, a dojo sensei karate master and just everything that's going on here and some of the behind the scenes. But first, if you're new to this podcast, please hit subscribe on YouTube and also visit Santa Barbara talks.com and consider making a contribution to support these podcasts. There's an old saying in fighting and really it applies to all sports and all things competitive, which is you need to leave it all in the cage. You need to leave it all in the ring, on the field, on the court, because by the time it's over, it's done. It's too late. And of course, there's a million things that you'll say you could have done, but it doesn't matter by then. What matters is what you do, bell to bell in between the actual competitive moments. And this is really something relevant in the context of this district three city council contest, because Tony Becerra by his own admission, by his own definition, by his own description is a fighter. He says he's a fighter. He is a fighter. He's a sensei. He's a karate champion. And he's somebody who is involved in defense and martial arts and is taught multiple generations of people, this sport. And he talks about how he's in a fight, a political fight. And the question for Tony Becerra, if he's trying to upset the incumbent Oscar Gutierrez is, is he willing to leave it all in the cage? Is he willing to leave it all on the field in order to pull off a political upset? And it's also appropriate for Oscar Gutierrez, because the question is, has he left it all on in the cage already? Has he done enough to essentially win to win reelection? He's been on the city council since 2018. Has he done enough during that period that almost six years of him serving in office to to win to get reelected to to convince voters that he is the most qualified for the position? That is something that voters are going to need to decide. But we have a suddenly very competitive contest that I don't know, probably shouldn't be competitive. And let's, let's talk about why. Now, I want to just preface this first with, this is analysis. This is my commentary. This is my unique thing that I bring to my coverage. I am not endorsing any candidates or wanting any specific candidates to win. This is true in district one as well. It's true here. I've got a lot of experience covering campaigns in cities other than Santa Barbara. And I know in Santa Barbara and other cities, and I know more often than not who wins and how you win. And so I want to talk a little bit about this. Tony Becerra is gaining momentum. He's been wholly backed by property owners. We're talking about people who are against rent control. And they've tapped Tony to say, Hey, we need you on the council to defend us to keep rent control out of the city. Oscar Gutierrez, his opponent is for it. And so they're hoping to chip away at that because if Whitney Santa Maria pulls off an upset over Alejandro Gutierrez, then there's going to be four votes for rent control or a rent cap or rent stabilization. So this is a big deal. They want to upset Oscar Gutierrez. Tony Becerra recently received the endorsement of the Santa Barbara Firefighters Association. This is so significant. Oscar had it before and they are handing it to this other new incumbent or so this new challenger. This is really significant. Why is this happening? Well, I think, you know, they want to change. They want something different. And I think Tony's trained some of the firefighters in the past. They must like his policies. They think he's going to be the change that Santa Barbara needs. But it's kind of a tough pill to swallow for Oscar because he has supported labor and he has supported the fire unions. And here we have a situation where they're moving over for him. The other thing that's it's kind of a half pulling, I guess, for Tony is the police officer's association are not endorsing. And so that means that Oscar has lost that support and Tony is in habit. But you know, neither does Oscar. So public safety is not backing the incumbent. And so what does that mean? It means it's probably going to come with some kind of a mailer for the firefighters. It's going to be some maybe some contributions. It's significant for somebody to say, hey, the firefighters back me over the incumbent that undoubtedly is going to get some kind of a vote. Okay. He also has the endorsements of the Santa Barbara South Coast Chamber of Commerce, which is not too big of a surprise. They tend to link conservative and Tony is a conservative guy. He's a former Republican. He's now registered as an independent. And he's a small business owner. So it makes sense that they would back him even though Oscar has been supportive of a lot of the business community. So it's kind of a little bit of a sting there to him as well, but less of a surprise than the firefighters. So Tony is getting some momentum and between the property owners who are giving him money for his campaign, the firefighters, the South Coast Chamber, he's now putting himself in a position to make a run. Here's the deal. I've seen this over and over and over. Candidates who think that they're going to win because they are in an echo chamber of people telling them that you're right. We agree with you. You're a much better candidate. The landscape is littered with those politicians who thought that they would be okay. And then election night, they saw the results and they weren't. Okay. And Tony needs to go back to the fighting analogy. He needs to leave it all in the cage if he wants to upset Oscar Gutierrez because it won't be enough to just listen to those people who are saying, oh, the city's going in a terrible direction. And we need to stop this talk or rent control and taxes and state street. There is a significant amount of people who believe that. But winning does not mean listening just to those people. When you're trying to unseat an incumbent, that means you've got to take people and change their minds and convince them that you were going to do better than the incumbent. And so Tony's got a huge disadvantage here because Oscar Gutierrez is credibly well liked. He's very affable. He's one of the nicest people you will ever meet. And he's earned the reputation for somebody who is shown up, who goes to events. On the campaign trail, he's over there saying, I'm the most responsive council member in history. And he's counted up 26,000, 27,000 emails, responses, something like that. I don't know what the running total is right now. But, you know, he's saying I responded to constituents and my forward emails to staff. I encourage staff to be able to reach out to people with questions. And so he's marketing himself. He's branding himself as the most responsive council member in the history of the city. He got me thinking a little bit there. Just as sort of a little side note is that first time I heard Oscar say that I was a little bit, I don't say urge, but just it kind of bothered me a little bit. Because when I think about the history of the council members that I've covered, and I think about the most responsive, and this may surprise some of you, is, you know, I don't necessarily think of anyone currently on the city council. I think of Doss Williams. I think of Colleen Schneider. I think of back in 2003, when Doss Williams was elected to office, I mean, we're talking about ushering a whole new era of politics and policy shifting on the council. He was talking about affordable housing before everyone else was talking about affordable housing. He was talking about neighborhood preservation in ways that other council members were not. He was talking about living wages and increasing wages for labor, for public safety, health care benefits. He was, you know, talking about defending the Mesa and the mansionization of the Mesa and making sure that these big houses weren't built to law. He was rescuing the bungalow Haven district, and he was doing all of these alternative transportation bus service. Okay. This is sort of the prime of what he was doing. And when I think about the most responsive council members, that's what comes to my head. But I realize it's just, it's just different. Okay. I would say probably he ushered in a whole era of policy shifting. When he walked in the city hall, they'd be like, oh, no, what is he going to come up with at today's meeting? And so I just want to give that a little bit of that history because Oscar is absolutely responsive. And like I said, incredibly likable. Things have shifted a little bit. And I think that that kind of policy driven attitude, you know, it helped us also hurt him, right? Some people don't like that sort of extreme advocacy for an issue. Oscar has done a great job as a city council member in terms of reaching out to people. He shows up in events. He cuts the ribbon. He's at the ribbon cutting. He's there and he responds. When other council members don't want to go to things, Oscar will go. But the question for Oscar is, is that enough? Has he done enough to hold on to his seat? Has he left it all in the cage in the ring for these last almost six years going up against a guy who is literally a fighter who trained him when he was young in high school as a wrestler and in karate. Has he done enough? And is it enough to go to the voters and say, I have been the most responsive council member. Is that going to get him the win? He also has talked about how he worked with city staff to create an app so that people can respond to a report problems that they see to the city. He also talks about just being very concerned about equity and being a representation and a voice and a face of the Latino community in ways that quite frankly, we don't really see with a lot of other people. Historically, he's been there. He does sort of remind me of that effect of a Baba Tunde fully. He was also the kind of guy who had walked down the street and people would just give him a hug and shake his hand and say, Baba. And Oscar has a little bit of that, a little bit of that vibe. And so the question is, is that enough? Has he shifted policy enough, however, to convince people that he deserves to be elected? Tony Becerra is saying, we want more crosswalks. He's saying we need more lighting. He says we need more library services. He thinks the streets are in great shape and that the city spends too much time in other parts of the city than the west side. And he says, the west side is just as important as the east side or state street. And Tony's defining a more specific message in his agenda. He's against the half cent sales tax proposal on the ballot. He wants to reopen state street, part of state street to cars. And Oscar over here is the opposite on all of that. And so the question is, is Oscar done enough? Is that going to be enough for voters? And is Tony willing to work hard enough to get beyond the rhetoric of his echo chamber to put in the work to actually turn sentiment that he experiences into votes? Ultimately, what it comes down to is who is going to work the hardest? Who's going to work hard from the beginning until the end? And Oscar has an advantage. Going back to 2018, he's an incumbent. He's been on the ballot the first time. Every week he's got a meeting that's publicized. And sometimes he's quoted in the media. He's has all of that over and over. And he's been meeting with all these people week after week, year after year. And so just in terms of name recognition, he is the huge advantage. So Tony Becerra is going to need to put in two, three, four times the work of Oscar in order to win. Because you've got to overcome that dynamic. There isn't a big backlash against Oscar. We saw an upset in the first district speaking of Doss Williams with Roy Lee. And that was stunning. That's like the political story of the last 50 years. But we don't have that situation in this console race. Nobody's actively angry at Oscar. They may not think he's the right choice or they may not think he's effective enough, whether he's not policy driven or he doesn't say enough during meetings. But there's nobody who's like wrestling with anger over Oscar Gutierrez. There aren't factions of the community conspiring to oust him from office, like was the case with the supervisors race. Instead, it's just kind of like Oscars. He's a very nice guy, but is he being effective? And then there are many people who absolutely think yes, he is. And he is the favorite. He should expect to win going into election day. That being said, he cannot coast. He cannot assume because he's had all this time. And the downside of having all that time is people say, what is your record? And if your record is, I'm the most responsive council member, that is worth something. But people want to know specifically, what did you do for my neighborhood and my community? And that is something voters will have to decide. And if Tony is going to try to make that case, he is going to have to put his business on hold and knock on doors every day. He's got to get every registered voter three times. And he's got to basically sacrifice everything in order to leave it all on the field and win. Because if he doesn't, he is going to find himself in a tough situation on election night. Conservatives, they love to write checks. And that is worth something. But in politics, three things matter. Money. If you're not raising money, you're not going to win. You're not. You need to raise money to get your name out. It's partially an advertising campaign. Message. You need to have a strong message. It's easier to have a message when you're an outsider. You basically say the establishment is bad, wrong, lost its way, not doing enough. It's kind of what Tony is doing. You need to have organization. And this is what is the big deficiency. Now, I know there are a ton of property owners and I know Tony is a household name on the West side. I know that so many people like him and he's got science, but he needs to get all of that and transform it into work in the field. Because what people say is much different than how people vote. So he's going to have to turn that vote out. And it takes bodies to do that. Oskar is endorsed by the Santa Barbara Democratic Party and say what you will, right? I mean, most of Santa Barbara is a Democrat in terms of registered voters. And you may not like the specific personalities in the party, but it matters when you're endorsed by them because it comes with work, it comes with volunteers, it comes with doorknockers, it comes with phone banking, okay? It comes with resources. And that's where Oskar has a clear advantage. And Tony, does he have these resources? He probably could. He probably does. But there's an infrastructure within the Democratic Party that is kind of tough to match. And so, Oskar has all of that. And if Oskar walks, he should win. And again, this is not an endorsement of him. This is analysis. He should win, meaning he's more likely to win than not. Tony is going to have to figure out a way to create a buzz around his campaign and knock on every door and get everyone he knows to support him. And he can't just be about rank control because the property owners are not enough to win this for you. And the tenant advocates are not enough to win it for Oskar. It takes a whole swath of the community and everyone coming together. And so, the question is Tony's a fighter, right? He's, it's this whole thing. You know, he actually says to me that he has never been afraid of a fight. He's ready to fight at any time, physically a fight. But what he doesn't like is political fighting where you have to market yourself or you have to say, as he says, look at me, look at me. And that's a problem. Like, if you want to run for office, you have to be willing to say, look at me, look at me, because people want to look at you and want to know what you're going to do with their taxpayer dollars. So, is Tony going to fight hard enough to leave it all in the cage, on the field, so that come election night, win or lose, he knows he did everything he could to win. And at that point, it was just up to voter turnout. He needs to do that and not just listen to the people in his head who are saying Santa Barbara is going in the wrong direction because those people exist, but it's not enough to win a seat. You've got to convince every day people who aren't partisan that you're the right person for the seat. And Oscar needs to somehow figure out a way to convince voters that, hey, I've been in office since 2018. I didn't have an opponent, you know, after I won the first time, and now I have a opponent. And I did everything I could for you. So give me another term. And the question for voters is, has he done that? Are you impressed with his 27,000 returns of emails, his events, his ribbon cuttings, him showing up in the business community? And that is worth so much. Is it enough for the voters on the West Side to say, we'll give you another four years? Remember, both these people are very well known on the West Side. So let's hope that they have high voter turnout. And the best, most qualified person wins. But Tony Becerra is in the fight of his life. He may not think so. He may think that this is all just like political nonsense and real fighting is all that trophies he has on his wall. These guys fought Chuck Lydell trained with UFC fighter Chuck Lydell. But politics is different. And we've seen celebrities try to run. We've seen athletes try to run. And they don't always win. And sometimes they lose badly because it's an entirely different game. So Tony needs to, he needs to leave it all. Every needs to do everything he can to win. And Oscar needs to not coast and Oscar needs to not think, I got this in the bag. And he needs to not dismiss Tony because he's not perfectly knowledgeable on every policy issue at City Hall. Is at the end of the day, people go vote. They're not experts on everything. They're thinking about the presidential campaign. They're thinking about the stuff on the statewide ballot. And then they're thinking about the local stuff. And the person who they're going to vote for, if they're not partisan, is going to be the person who they think is going to make the biggest change in the community. And if they've knocked on their door and introduced themselves, that also makes a difference. So that's the contest. That's district three. It's very exciting. And we'll see who's going to leave it all on the political field. And so come election night, say I did everything I could to win. Because the person who takes no shortcuts and sacrifices everything, his race is close enough. He's going to be the victor. All right, thanks a lot. Please hit subscribe on YouTube. Visit SantaBarberTalks.com. Have a great day.