This episode is brought to you by progressive insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy. Just drop in some details about yourself and see if you're eligible to save money when you bundle your home and auto policies. The process only takes minutes and it could mean hundreds more in your pocket. Visit progressive.com after this episode to see if you could save. Some casualty insurance company and affiliates. Potential savings will bear not available in all states. One of the more grab bag or keep a re-type episodes of the week here in season has been the Tuesday show. I'd like to do a day to dive. I'm getting all the new information here on Monday and some things perk up in terms of premium content and putting out things like the wide receiver and tight end utilization show. Running back roundup went almost an hour this week. We've got chaos and carnage with so many things up in the air with injuries. That's why getting the backups right at the running back position is so critical this time of year. They're the bevy of moves to make to optimize your bench. Also, to optimize your exposure to these NFL depth charts with how things are moving. I really do think something I mentioned on that show is timing the how aggressive should I be with running backs on Wednesday or Tuesday night whenever your waivers run versus should I because we may not have much news other than a player that's trending towards being out. We may have that. Players that end up being out on Friday Saturday. We may not have clarity really until Friday about that. That is first come first serve open hunting season for running back. That was a big point that I make every weekend. This is a critical week for that with so many things up in the air just in terms of how aggressive should I be with certain running backs with the waiver process. Then also which ones because you'll have to drop a player. I think that is something that is washed over in the title patterns of making roster moves here that is I still have to make room for the player that we're all excited about picking up. Well, who's your drop? It's a more complicated nuanced and artistic question than just pick this guy up, pick that guy up. There's a finite amount of roster spots here. Make sure you sign up if you're not already a part of UTH dynasty.com in the premium package because running back around up, we go into that nuance. We talk waiver wire concepts, especially at the running back position. Also have a waiver wire, a little strategy show that comes out on Patreon every week. So again, grab bag here. Let's get started. Also, I have a Jaden Reed premium show that I was going to release on a Patreon, but I'm just going to release it here at the end of the Tuesday show. These are the types of updates you get the macro view of a player that when an update happens in season or especially in the off season, that I am going to report a show and ended up being seven, eight minutes long. So that will be the final section of this show where it will be just a free preview that you get. I will say I did a deep dive on running backs here at the end of last week where I ended up having a bunch of time on Saturday, uncharacteristically. And so on Saturday, I was ending up updating things. And what you get is you get additional shows. You also get the transparency of behind the story here. So I put out shows on Saturday on Lucky Irving as well as JK Dobbins. And I updated more players from that. I discussed more players than that in the VIP chat with the VIPs there. But again, Lucky Irving, JK Dobbins, I want to record shows on that also put out a show today that was finishing out catching up with all the dynasty trades I've been making. So you get a transparency of essentially get commentary on every trade that I make across my portfolio, the Y, the format, what's involved, all that good stuff, just so you know that I'm crossing the T's and dotting the I's. That's enough of that. Let's get to the dynasty content here and talking about the macro view on a certain type of profile at quarterback. And this perked me up because Baker Mayfield is having an outstanding start to his season. However, it's a very unique one. And I've talked before about having all the rankings there percentile rankings for quarterbacks in the various categories with their FF various categories. And he ones are pressure to sack, which is how often when you're pressured are you sacked. Now the percentage I give you is where they rank, not historically, not the actual percentage pressure to set. And also a dot, you know, again, how far is your average depth of target. Baker Mayfield this year is averaging 18 plus some points per game, which is unbelievable when you consider the fact of the couple things that I'm going to share here. So we have Baker Mayfield at 18 points per game. And he's also averaging a tremendous, where is it here? Point four nine points per dropback. And again, that's just passing. And that is higher than everybody but barely squeaked by by Sam Donald and Gordon love. So rarefied stuff when you get over 0.5, a lot of times guys, settle in the, you know, 0.41 to 0.45 ring, you know, for every once in a while, like Brock Cardi was over 0.5 for the aggregate of last season. But Baker Mayfield with this high passing points per game. And yes, that's touchdown centric, of course, but as well as all the yardage cities accruing. So you have he's on 13th percentile for pressure to sack. So when pressure gets home, when pressure is there, he is taking an abnormal number of sacks. Another thing is he's 9% in a dot average depth of target. So you put those two things together. And so you have a player that is very reactive in a negative way to pressure, taking, curdling, taking, you know, and absorbing those sat sacks, then you have a player that in general across the scope of quarterbacking has been throwing the ball short. Now, Chris Godwin, so Godwin has been amazing. After the catch, there's a lot of screens mixed in there. And so, but you're talking about those two things are generally not in alignment, where again, he's doing a lot on a per game basis. He's very reactive and taking a lot of sacks for his pressure. And then he's throwing the ball short online is the world's most trusted betting platform and your number one source for everything sports betting. 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I Lou Murray is on this list, late career Ben Rothersberger, late career Matt Ryan, go burrow is really the only guy that has been on this list a twice. And B, I think a lot fewer people have questions about him compared to the names that I just mentioned Jimmy Garoppolo if I didn't mention him, I'll Orton out of the year that was on this list. So Baker Mayfield is doing good things, but I think we have to be careful. What's funny is kind of this listed aggregate is sort of the mid quarterbats in their NFL career. So I found it interesting that burrow and Mayfield in 2020, 2024 here are both on this list and yet then reactive the pressure and they're generally throwing the ball gort. So that is something that is opposite of I don't know if I share it on this show or another show, but the Gordon love like there's a there's a very good, you know, if you have high a dot and you avoid sacks, that is the ultimate formula for elite upside. And this is pretty much the opposite of that. So maybe this is the high floor outcome. This is the, you know, you're having a good season, but you better sort start tweak of the dials and correcting things is sort of how I would take this like something needs to change whether it's by the end of the season, or if it's by next year in general. And bigger Mayfield again is one that he's been up and down certainly early in his career had success here, but this is markedly different than his career in 2022, which again, small sample sizes here, but he he was near this threshold. But in his career generally he's been a playmaker. He's been a high a dot a well, you know, 60s, 70s, even touched 80% in a dot in most of his starting seasons with any meaningful sample size. So this is very unlike him. And I almost wonder where we saw Patrick Holmes, for example, and I know I'm putting a major major in Patrick Holmes in the same sentence. So I'm treading lightly here on how I say this, but big, but Patrick Holmes was one that he was a playmaker. He was the downfield, flames rowing Maven, old decision making thrower at a high apex level. And then you've had him transition down, partitioned, tear himself down into now being a extended drive and make all the key plays, hold the ball, you know, roll the clock, make all the smart plays like we saw Brady have that wide range as well. We had the peak high with Welker and Randy Moss and, you know, and that huge dynamic season, you know, where they went undefeated and just, you know, flamethrower across the entire league, laying waste to defenses all over the land. And then you saw the ball control and again showing the wide range of both things. And so Baker Mayfield, again, lesser talent degree than Brady and Mahomes anything. But seeing these numbers of a guy that again is going from generally a high ADOT, a bold throwing player and now down to a very controlled zone. And having success to some degree to at least a requisite, you can keep a job NFL starting level with both variants, I think is is rather impressive and not overly common here. So Kudos to Baker Mayfield for a team change and also coming from the wreckage of literally being a week long rental with the Rams and go elevating all the way to now earning a new contract with some level of allegiance to say that I'm a captain now, I'm the leader of this offense and I'm leading it to positive things offensively. So again, unique profile, Joe Burrell on this list, but also Baker Mayfield this year. And it's just one that is not very common and really stuck out here because you're seeing, you know, in the non productive way. This is also the list that Thon Watson is on. This is also the list that, who attack if I loa, for example, this year is on Gardner Menchoo got benched and he is on this list. Bryce Young is on this list as unproductive and he got on this list. So Kobe Percet on this list now bench and see, that's what I'm saying. So Baker Mayfield is the hyper productive version of this. But if that passing points per game were to drop a little bit, all of a sudden this pressure to sack and the A dot comes into question and it points to losing your job. So I do think there's a ceiling here to how you value Baker Mayfield mostly because you sit and you say, well, you know, he's entirely productive right now. But again, you start absorbing sacks and start throwing the ball short. And that generally means, hey, it's third 11, you have to throw the ball short. But that's what we roll our eyes and hand ring about is when you just give up on these plays and you're just like cementing a punt, you know, or you're already in field goal range, you get six more yards, you didn't press the envelope to try a score touchdown at all. And here you are basically just let's advance to the next play and kick a field goal, we might as well have kicked on third down. So that it's a very dangerous line to the straddle. And that's why I would say at the quarterback position, Baker Mayfield, even if he has elevated in your eyes and in your stature with contact allegiance and all of that, that's why he's not he's quarterback 24 for me. And I don't feel like that's overly suppressive, because the only court starting quarterbacks behind him have plenty of question marks in terms of their contract allegiance or their level of play, or not having meaningful upside, some combination of that. And so I almost feel like to some degree, I can't have bigger me feel more than a spot or two lower. Even if I tried, even if I pushed him as if there were a glass ceiling clicking down upon Baker Mayfield's head. So that is the thing that I kind of think about is that bigger may feel the really nice bridge, but I did see in the last week some dynasty trades with Baker Mayfield going for a first round pick. And I think that is very risky when you consider some of these factors like what I just shared. I know it was a very verbose way of saying it. But what he's doing is historically rare and an outlier to see extended and prolonged success. Next, I wanted to go over four key players from a wide receivers tight end combination here from week six, we're looking at their participation, earning targets, yards per route run. It possibly is a route increase from what their seasonal average is here, but they are officially on the map here as of interest for future weeks. The first one is Mark Andrews. And I tried to have a mix of maybe obvious but not obvious names alike. So for Mark Andrews, the routes aren't going about aren't going up. He's at 20 routes per game he ran 18 this past week. But signs of life. First touchdown for him. He saw four targets in the first five games. He only had 14. So that's an uptick. We're making progress. If you think back to week one week two, Travis Kelsey looked like he was going to retire, you know, and just like where is Travis Kelsey and all of a sudden one injury with Rishi Rice and Travis Kelsey is back to normal. And I would just say with Mark Andrews, what if they flowers miss this time? What if Isaiah likely misses time? There is a myriad of possibilities to say or what if Mark Andrews was just getting up to speed, you can say, Oh, he looks kind of normal. Oh, this and that. Who knows if the Ravens are like, Hey, we want Mark Andrews for later in the season. We don't care that much about September in terms of we think we can be just fine. But Mark Andrews obviously elevates our situation. So with his car accident, who knew if that was they were officially slow playing him, you know, just in terms of getting him the ball, not being such a decoy. But this past week, 3.6 yards per route run, 22% target per route run. Both of those are wildly above what he did in the opening five weeks. So while it's not the 2.1, 24% career averages in those categories, Mark Andrews is making progress. Now, like I said, and I said this a couple of weeks ago, let's see where we are at the end of October. So we've got a couple more games this month. Let's see if it's more like week five and six, or let's see if it's more like those those monot games. I have a sense it's going to be more like the past couple of weeks, more like Mark Andrews, and his typical profile, and what we're used to seeing from one of the all-time profiles, and especially one over the past decade, off the tight end position. At your job, do you ever have to deal with a nose roller? How about a snub bully? Well, if you're installing a new conveyor belt system, dealing with the different components can sound like you're speaking a foreign language. Luckily, you've got a team ready to help. Granger's technical product specialists are fluent in maintenance, repair, and operations. So whenever you want to talk shop, just reach out. Call clickgranger.com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. Number two, belief Raymond. So he's averaging 13 routes per game. He hit 13 routes per game this past week. But 38% target per route run, 5.6 yards per route run. So we know kyleaframan can do this. The Lions, I have basically a doozy land approach. If just we can do anything, everything, Dallas, go sit over there. We are the class of the NFC. We're not even thinking about you. We'll think about the 49ers a little bit, some of these other teams, but they could do whatever they want. They're doing hook at laterals to their tackle. They really were having fun. And everyone but Jameer Gibbs. Jameer Gibbs, no touchdown for you, 13 points, and slide trombone day if he was in your lineup compared to what was going on relative to everybody else. But I would remind folks, kyleaframan is one that has been a highly efficient player in his career. And he's one that, you know, been pretty quiet up until this week in 2024 here, but just play out these scenarios. And I played this out with Mark Andrews, but it applies to ancillary guys in elite offenses like kyleaframan as well, which is what if a monoroth Saint Brown gets hurt? What if Jameson Williams gets hurt? What if Sam LaPorta goes down? There's a number of iterations where all of a sudden kyleaframan running more routes, kyleaframan more involved, kyleaframan making place, kyleaframan being a pretty important bi-week fill in or streamer for you in the coming weeks, or maybe just one pivotal week in the stretch run of this season. So while he's running, you know, 10, 15 routes a game, and this just this got him onto the radar, the reminder, the alarm clock of saying, "relieframan, let's remember he's a guy that has done this before." And Patrick's another one of this offense. So ancillary guys, not running enough routes, not really that relevant, unless you're in a pretty poor situation. Just remember that these are the types that when an injury occurs, when things consolidate a little bit, when they need someone to step up, that these are the types of profiles and elite offenses you want to invest in. Player number three to highlight in terms of player utilization is DiMario Douglas. So DiMario Douglas for the New England Patriots here, a player that was on our radar last year, he had some productivity, but it really wasn't a ton. It wasn't enough that made you say that he was going to be a breakout player this year, and certainly one where you saw the trajectory where it was going to be Jacobi Prasett, they drafted Drake May, but the offensive line, offense in general, this is not going to be a good team. DiMario Douglas has largely been that. You've seen the product of Jacobi Prasett, where everything is short, all of a sudden the field is shrinking, the offensive line is not playing well, and you have DiMario Douglas also just blending in of saying nothing is really working on this offense. Well, week six, we get Drake May, first NFL start. The field actually expands. Imagine that. DiMario Douglas runs 28 routes. He's averaging 26 per game on the season, so slightly up there, but you saw an offense that started moving the ball. You saw an offense that moved vertically, that challenged, that all of a sudden you have a quarterback that can extend and run for a first down on third and sixth. We did not have that before. DiMario Douglas this week, 3.3 nards per route run, 32% target per route run. Those are markedly up. Again, he was a promising player. For his career, he's at a 22% target per route run. It's an interesting number for a guy that has limited value in terms of dynasty. Not many people are holding on to him with a vice grip, but when you see an extreme difference, which is veteran, low upside quarterback through four or five weeks, he is out. Young, unproven quarterback, rookie, a lot of traits. Let's see where this goes. He started off the game a little jittery. I actually recorded a big segment on the film notes coming out of Sunday, so you get to hear almost a Drake May feature show within that. Again, but he progressed and you saw a lot more boldness, a lot more comfort, as that game progressed. You would hope that that would continue. They have Jacksonville this week, a huge target matchup. Again, that may not produce bigger numbers for DiMario Douglas than 3.3 and 32%, but again, functional on offense. You're going to have better vibes maybe coming out of this game, but even last week for the New England Patriots. So, DiMario Douglas, no one else has really impressed. Kesha and Butte, Kendrick Bourne, just coming back now, just a couple of games in. You've got Galen Polk. Nobody has really done much. This is honestly one of the bigger plot games that we've seen from a wide receiver for the Patriots all season, and it would happen to be Drake May's first game, and it happened to be DiMario Douglas, the guy with the most built up NFL profile to date. So, again, certainly someone that's on the radar here is DiMario Douglas. Number four, and finally, and the same sort of theme is Khaleef Raymond. I want to talk about Noah Brown with the Washington commanders. And so Noah Brown, a guy that's kicked around, he's been a nomadic player in the NFL, one that was productive for a four, five, six week segment last season with Houston. They had some injuries, and all of a sudden, Noah Brown was a guy lighting it up, NFL-wise, fantasy-wise, for a cross-section. Well, this past week, 2.1 yards per route run, 30% target per route run, 27 routes per gate, 27 routes this past week, he's averaging 20 on the season. He is rising. Beyond Terry McLaurin, wide receiver two through wide receiver five, there's not a big difference here. No one is really dominating in terms of routes. But you know who is rising? Noah Brown is rising in that hierarchy. So, what if he wins this wide receiver two job in full? It hasn't been Luke McCaffrey. It hasn't been Diami Brown. There hasn't been one static figure there, but Noah Brown has been a guy that he actually had the deck stacked against him. He got there later than everybody else that has been there during the off-season here, that has been in this system that has been rising up, that should have had an opportunity, an easy home field advantage over Noah Brown. Noah Brown steps in, and again, he's producing well, and here he is with a big pop game in week six. So, you put all that together and you say Noah Brown is the exact type of player who would have enough streaming capabilities to be able to go through and end up having five-week viability, or even a guy that we feel more comfortable starting in future weeks. Without further ado, here comes the Jaden Reed Premium Show that you get, talking about his macro profile that he has built, as well as where his update is with his dynasty valuation, incorporating the first six weeks of 2024. This is the process that I go through with every player at various points in the calendar. I do a big scrubbing and make sure everything is a military term, dress-right dress. They're at the end of the season, but with players where they're divergent from maybe in a positive or negative way where their outcomes are, obviously it's more important more frequently in season to do these updates as well. Quick show on Jaden Reed updated his profile here. Moving on up, tight end. Certainly not a tight end. Wide receiver, 17 in the updated rankings, tier 4. So moving up from where did I have him? 23. So a few spots up and certainly warrants that. Let me go over his profile career arc here in a second, but when you look at what he's done, he's 2.28 now, yards per route run for his career. 2.85 this year. It's undeniable. Guys this year, there's only five or so that are higher in the rankings, so of the 16-17 guys ahead of them, there's only five that have a higher yards per route run this year. A few that are over three guys like Rishi Rice, injured. You've got what is it? AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson. That's the list. There might be some smaller sample size guys. Jermaine Burton's barely played. But man, he's earning targets too in terms of 22%. That's the number I worry about a little bit. Highly efficient guy. So that's one thing that has me, I did have one kind of hedge there, but he certainly followed in a career arc that he was on the pathway to some degree last year. Looking here, he's at the number that I kind of said with future cast value. He's out of 16. If he hit for a top 24 finish this year, I predicted, or the model, excuse me, predicted, he would be a 16. Here he is. He's out of 16, where previously he was at an 11 or something like that. Really condensing things. He's got 15 comps in the model. When guys have outlier stuff going on, if they're overtly big or overly small, overly high pedigree, overly low pedigree, I try to use that to shade it, but still keep it so that we have some comps in the spectrum. For him, obviously being what is it? 5'11", 190. I took out all the big huge guys that are like 6'3" or the big heavy guys. We've got a better working list. I thought it was interesting. Looking at the first couple of years, not too dissimilar to someone like Amman Ross St. Brown. Knowing him like a baby Amman Ross St. Brown is not that inaccurate. Randall Cobb, he didn't do as much in year one, but pretty similar in year two. He had two more years of this three-year run, where he's a pretty dominant player. It's pretty easy, both being crackers and all, but you look at, say, Greg Jennings. That's a decent comp. Percy Harvin, Jarvis Landry, a little bit bigger, but in that comp spectrum, Jalen Wattle is on this spectrum. Deontay Johnson, Vivanta Smith, Terry McLaurin, a little bit bigger there. Risk Olave, these are really efficient players. He comes out to 1.5, top 12 seasons remaining, 1.5, 1.6, top 24 seasons remaining. The dense hits in this are guys like Tyree Kill, Stefan Diggs. Not quite sure that that top end is going to be what he is, but when you look at the next grouping of guys like Greg Jennings had three top 12 finishes. Percy Harvin had two. Brando Klob had two more. Manra has one, and then if he has one this year, that's two, and counting. Brandon Cooks had four more top 20 seasons beyond this point in his career. DJ Moore, Jalen Wattle, Deontay Smith. These are quality. There's not really a bust on this whole list, which I think you have Percy Harvin, where injuries ended up getting him two years beyond this point in the career arc. I would say, Santonio Holmes is probably the least appetizing outcome where he had one more season inside of wide receiver 24 left, and that was not really a great outcome in the macro. But for now, Jake Reed has to feel pretty stable, pretty secure, and I know it's probably not a ceiling chasing venture unless he turns into hill or digs. But the fact that you have a guy young enough where you probably have this window, it's a rookie contract window at least, which is two more seasons. They have a tag or an optionality. He's been the best of a pretty good collection of young wide receivers there for Green Bay, and he's been the guy that's earned the most targets. I mean, that has to mean something here that he's in a competitive, young, hungry group, and yet he has emerged beyond them. So I've been at wide receiver 17, not to say that others below him with adjustment, they might leapfrog him. But I think he's he's a floor play here. I think having him higher than tier four would not be good just in terms of like, then you get into the guys that, you know, unequivocally, now that that are locked into situations where you could see them being higher, more, you know, the orbital pull, the gravitational pull of an offense goes more their direction, or they could be more alpha-like. So that would be the one thing is that, you know, is he just a really good beta? But is he a really, is he actually an alpha? That's a legitimate question. Today's NFL. I think that's more of a murky question and murky identifier than it was a few years ago. And so, I mean, but I think having him behind Drake Landon, who I haven't adjusted, which I mean, he might shoot. He might make it so that tier three to tier four is a pretty graphic difference. But again, I do think the top end to 15 right now are in a different ilk. And then you have a lot closer competitive groupings. When you look at say wide receiver 16, 17, 18, out to the end of the 20s, I think that is a more competitive hearing as opposed to the top that I just can't at this time, you know, in good practice, but didn't read already 24 years old, not that that's, you know, a bad thing. But he came out older having him with what Brian Thomas has done, but the fact that he could look like, you know, a true alpha guy, Brandon Ayuk, for example, where she writes, I mean, those are guys like in the, you know, nine to 12 or 13 range. And I just can't see good read getting up there. But he is pretty aggressive, you know, at where I just updated him too. So that's going to be, again, I just wanted to share some comments here, share his career analysis and share kind of the why on his upcoming as you'll see on the site ranking adjustment. He's one of the few players I'm going to have time for here to be able to hit, at least in the early part of the week, with their grubbing through weeks. Time shed Parsons until next time, never settled, refuse to be average and keep building those. Bingo. All right, Phil, we're recording now. So it's live. Go ahead, pick on me the way that you want to. Did I say that? I would say that to my son. And I mean, come on, man, just go. This isn't CBS. All right, be quiet for a few seconds. Why would people want to listen to the Sims complete podcast? Well, a couple of things. One, if you'd like to see sons pick on their father, this might be the place. If you want to see a place where the father just kicks he out of his son, this will be the place. What do you like about it, Matt? Ditto father, son dynamic duo talking about the game of football that we love and share and appreciate together. And you know, hey, it's an extension of what we did, right? Growing up, I was able to watch my father play football, then obviously watch him as a broadcaster. And then he taught me the game of football and share the wisdom that he learned throughout his playing career. And you know, hey, sometimes we're full of it. And sometimes we're, we actually know a thing or two. Well, we do do a lot of research. At least I do. I'm you, you little spotty, but you know, you're, you hang in there. It's fun. I love doing this and it's been awesome. Sims complete. Check us out wherever your podcasts are available on the Believe Network. Appreciate it. See you. If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review, and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening. [BLANK_AUDIO]
