The Duran Podcast
CNN admits; Gas station Russia crushing US & Europe in ammo production
All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is happening in Ukraine. Let's start with the front lines and I think we have to talk about what is happening with the tanks, the Abrams, we have to talk about the Patriots and basically how Russia is is destroying a lot of the Ukraine NATO hardware and we have not seen to date any video or photo evidence of the SB 34s which Ukraine claims to have shot down. So what do you think is the real situation as to what's happening on the ground in Ukraine? Right, well we are getting reports all the time of Russian advances in all sorts of places. So in the north there's a place called Terni, a village which is apparently now important village on important river in the north which the Russians are in the process of recapturing. There's a very big battle going on for control of another town, fortress town called Krasnogorovka, close to Donetsk city. It's the last big 45 position the Ukrainians have close to Donetsk city from which they shall Donetsk city that's a big battle. In some ways it looks like the biggest battle since of Devka. There's also fighting going on in other places further south and there continues to be fighting near of Devka itself. I mean if you remember last time I think we talked about these things Siersky the Ukrainian Oval Commander. He launched a counter attack in this area. He's been piling troops and men to try and hold back the Russians in the area around of Devka. Every day we get reports of huge Ukrainian losses there. Ukrainian is gradually losing ground and again it's a tradition. But the big story is exactly the one you said. The Russians are on a hunt destroying Western equipment in Ukraine. They've destroyed perhaps three some people say four Patriot missile systems in various places around Ukraine over the last couple of weeks. Two Patriot missile systems just two or three days ago near a town called Pakrosk not so far from off Devka itself and we've got film of this. They destroyed three high mass launch systems in the space of a single day. This also has happened over the course of the last week. They've destroyed three Caesar howitzers howitzers specialised howitzers supplied by France and of course they've now knocked out for Abraham's tanks. So I mean they are systematically destroying the Western equipment that has been supplied to Ukraine by the Western powers at such enormous costs. All these systems these expensive weapon systems that Ukraine got the Russians are destroying and this is becoming so systematic and methodical that I can't help but think that this is turning into a deliberate policy. What the Russians are doing is that they're showing to the Americans and they're showing to the Europeans. Look you go on sending expensive equipment to Ukraine like this. All that will happen is that we will destroy it and we will destroy it fast. Now I've seen figures for the cost of some of these systems which have been destroyed according to some reports the total cost the price of the Patriot systems the Russians have destroyed. This is over the course of the last month comes to around 20 billion dollars. So you get a sense of you know the amount of equipment that is being thrown away and this comes after I saw a report that every time the West or Germany sends equipment to Ukraine eventually sooner or later they have to replace it but costs in defense procurement arising all the time. So if you send a Patriot system to Ukraine and that Patriot system gets destroyed and you're ordering you Patriot system for yourself that new Patriot system will cost double. What the one you sent to Ukraine has cost. I mean I'm saying that perhaps I'm overstating things but it's a constant inflation of costs and JD Vance US Senator is becoming concerned about this and he's asking the administration now to provide more precise figures about the true cost to the United States at this commitment. So a major systematic campaign by the Russians to destroy all of this western equipment was that's not the only things that the Russians are destroying. They've destroyed a host a whole large number of S 300 ed defense systems these are Soviet legacy systems that Ukraine had been provided by the so inherited from the Soviet Union. They've been destroyed as well. There's still leopard two tanks and bradleys also being destroyed and the other thing the Russians have been doing and I don't think anybody's commented about this is that they've been going on a hunt for Ukrainian FPV operators. These are the operators who guide the drones which Kamikaze drones which the Ukrainians have been trying to use to slow down the Russians and again over the last week I've seen at least four instances of the Russians homing in and on a particular basis used by Ukrainian FPV drone operators and destroying them as well. So what we're seeing is the Russians systematically demolishing you know key elements of the Ukrainian armed forces but also signaling to the west I think so you know you're just throwing away money in Ukraine if you continue to arm it in the way you do it. Okay so let's discuss ammunition since we're on the topic of of weapons because this is a story that broke from CNN the other day an exclusive story from CNN where basically they are reporting that Russia is out producing the United States and Europe by three times three X and I believe CNN said that and they were interviewing various military officials and NATO officials and CNN in their reporting they said that by the end of 2025 even with all the ramp up of the of the United States in getting their their ammunition production going they will still only get to about half a little less than half of what Russia is producing today in terms of ammunition so yeah obviously CNN is is assuming that as the US is ramping up Russia is just going to stay static in their ammunition production and by the end of 2025 then the optimistic scenario is that the US could get to maybe half of what Russia is producing they can produce half of of what Russia is producing every every month and every year. I believe the number was 250,000 is what they said Russia is producing on a monthly basis and they said that the United States by the end of 2025 could optimistic and under an optimistic scenario can get to a hundred thousand a hundred thousand plus so so we have to talk about this because we've been saying this for a long time you've been saying this for a long time you've been focusing on the ammunition this channel's been focusing on ammunition Brian Berlettik at the New Atlas has been focusing on ammunition and it looks like CNN has finally caught up to our reporting. As you discuss this story I just want to also throw something at you why do you believe CNN was allowed to publish this this article that kind of has me a bit curious. I'll just say the the the the cynical side of me the the reason could be that maybe maybe the the US is is using this to to underestimate to try and give lower figures and in the background they're actually producing a lot more so maybe they're trying to throw the questions off anyway just a thought that I had but explain all of all of this this news about the ammunition. I mean on the subject of the United States producing many more shells than it's reporting that I think is true but not to a very significant degree. Now I've had a report a very detailed report from somebody who is very familiar with the situation in the United States at the moment about US production of ammunition now I unfortunately I can't get into the details of this because doing so might reveal things about this person but basically the US is claiming at the moment that they're making around 28,000 shells a month. This person estimates that they're really making around 34,000 shells a month. If we look at longer term trajectories then he thinks that the US will eventually at the end of 2025 arrive at essentially the same point that CNN is saying. So they are perhaps producing rather more than they're saying at the moment but it's not by a huge number. The other thing this book this person has said is that the US is catastrophically depleted its arsenals of ammunition and especially it seems in the Indo-Pacific region. They basically took everything they had from the Marines the US military or the forward positions in the Pacific and gave them to Ukraine. So a lot of that extra production perhaps even most of it will have to go to replacing US arsenals. So they're increasing production. There is far less certainty. There's a lot much more uncertainty as to what it is exactly that the Europeans are doing. Some are saying the Europeans are producing a lot less than the Americans. Others are saying that Rheinmetall the German industrial group is actually out producing the Americans. I don't believe that Rheinmetall is out producing the Americans. I think if it was we would know about it and I don't believe that that's the case. So I think roughly these figures are with you know of Western production of ammunition are reasonably right. What I also have to say though is that I think that the figures for Russian ammunition production are probably too low. Again the same person who's been unpicking the American figures some way back said to me that the three million shells Russia was producing a year has by now already increased to about four million which I again for various reasons I think is probably about right. So they're losing the ammunition war but in some ways and this is another thing to say here. This is actually a less consequence in terms of what's going on on the battlefronts then would have been the case in say 2022-2023 because Ukraine is using a lot less ammunition on the battlefronts but actually so is Russia. So Russia is using five times more ammunition than Ukraine is using on any particular day. The Ukrainians are using less ammunition than they did than they had either they used to because they have less. The Russians probably are using less ammunition for a particular reason and that is because they've diversified their strike weapons so it looks like they've got many more ballistic missiles than they did but the other big change from earlier on in the war is that they're now using many many more precision-guided bombs. So they're dropping around a hundred bombs a day. These are sometimes enormous bombs. One five fifteen hundred kilo bomb can do far more damage than hundreds of shells fired against the same location. If all of this is correct and Russian shell production is as big as we're being led to believe it is likely that the Russians are stockpiling shells and that is different from what the West is doing and it begs a lot of questions. Are they stockpiling shells because they're worried that they might have to take on NATO in Ukraine or is it that they're stockpiling shells in preparation for some big offensive that they might launch say in the summer of this year or sometime next year. We'll just have to wait and see but one way or the other it does look as if the Russians are for the moment well ahead of the West in shell production and that is a storm machine. Maybe both. Maybe they're stockpiling in preparation for NATO but they're also stockpiling for an offensive. Yes probably that's exactly what they probably did the same with missiles by the way I mean they've been launching fewer missiles and again I think the reason for that is not difficult to understand because with so many air defense assets across Ukraine destroyed and this has been a long start long running story now going on for several months. It's the last few weeks we've seen the last month we've seen a particular concentration on destroying a Western-supplied air defense assets but bear in mind Ukraine is estimated to have lost you know around 15% of its air defense assets in one day in that single strike that took place against those two patriot missile systems in Bakhrosk and the Russians also apparently destroyed an S-300 missile system in the same strike. So the Russians don't have to use so many missiles anymore they can launch ordinary cheap drones in huge numbers and they can stop pile missiles because there's less the fewer air defense assets now to shoot down the drones and that leaves means that the Russians can stop pile missiles and again the question is what for to support an offensive or to deter and counter NATO as you say probably both. The interesting part about the CNN article is that they basically say that this war is going to be won on ammunition on artillery on shells and then the production of artillery and if that's the basis as to as to how this war is going to be won according to CNN well I mean the conclusion is obvious Ukraine's not win Russia is going to win very much why is one one further point about every single shell that Russia produces it can use against Ukraine the United States and NATO are not in that condition because the United States as we know is involved in many wars in all kinds of places it's got to think about China it's got to think about the Middle East it's got to replace its own arsenal so if the Russians are producing three million shells they can use all of those shells they got big stock bars already they can use all of those shells in Ukraine the United States cannot and that's a fundamental difference I just go back to my initial question to you why would CNN be allowed to publish this this type of article I mean when the narrative for the last year and a half has bid Russia's running out of ammunition Russia's running out missiles Russia's running out of tanks Russia's running out of air Russia's running out of everything and now all of a sudden out of the blue CNN publishes an exclusive which is you know Russia is not only out producing the United States but they're out producing the entirety of the collective west and this war is going to be won or lost on the on the basis of ammunition according to CNN so here's here's a situation it just why why are they publishing this article now is is this one indeed for CNN for the permanent state to say you know here's here's the situation you know don't tell us we weren't we weren't being honest with you guys are transparent here it is you know it's it's very interesting and by the way there's been another article not a modern weapons production exactly but by the economist you know our old friends ultra near con newspaper Russian economy is resilient and healthy inflation's coming down inflation was the big worry last year but apparently it's now under control and is starting to fall and the economy still continuing to grow so the economic war has definitely failed and that's coming out in the economist as well the economist widely read of course in the United States by the political leaders there why are all of these articles appearing why was that article that we discussed you know two or three weeks ago in New York Times of Barat you know the intelligence bases in Ukraine all published why is all this going on now I have to say this I think what is happening is that there's been a decision made by someone in the United States probably not but what definitely not Biden by does not able to make these decisions not Sullivan not Blinken not that crowd but somewhere within the permanent state there's been a decision this has gone far enough we can't really go on investing in this any further we got a draw a line these articles of attempts I think to alert the informed US public in other words the political class that the time has come to start winding down Project Ukraine and we saw you know Newland resigning so-called last week another straw in the wind and you know this wouldn't be the first time the United States walking away from a problem saying to the Europeans look it's your problem now we're not going to be there to the extent that we were previously so we publicized this business about the shells we admit to the fact that we can't keep up with the Russians in shell production we're going to lose this battle for shells which as you correctly said means on our own analysis that the Russians are going to win we've ruled out sending our own troops to Ukraine I that was done so categorically by the way in the state of the union addressed it I think it'd be very difficult politically to turn around and change that so I think gradually we're walking away from this problem and I think the Russians have sensed it and I think they're driving the point home by going after the habrands and the patriots and all of those things telling the US again look this is a bad investment your good capitalists you understand the lost cost fallacy so you know don't go on investing in this project which is already firm yeah makes sense JD Vance or Rand Paul they can see the CNN article and they could use it to to once again say look there's there's no reason to send 61 billion to to Ukraine because obviously we're losing we're not going to catch up in ammunition production and we are going to to lose this conflict so let's stop and now so this definitely is is going to help the arguments of people like JD Vance or Rand Paul who are against the 61 billion to the project Ukraine a final question since we're talking about about weapons let's finish off the video talking about the Taurus missiles and Ola Schulz he once again said that there will be no Taurus missiles in Ukraine actually I don't know if there's a slip up or if he's saying this intentionally but once again he he threw it out there that look these missiles they have to be operated by German troops that would mean German troops in Ukraine we can't trust Ukrainians to operate these missiles because they may fire these missiles to places that we don't want them to fire them towards and so that would mean we have to have German troops on the ground in Ukraine and he's like no this is this is a no-go and I say it could be an intentional type of slip up a jab at at the UK because you know Schulz saying that Taurus missiles need you German soldiers in Ukraine you could draw the line and say well wouldn't that mean that storm shadow missiles need UK soldiers and scout missiles need French soldiers anyway I'm I'm just kind of throwing that out there but but Schulz made it clear no Taurus missiles in Ukraine but we have David Cameron the foreign secretary coming out with his plan of which Anilina Berbach endorses which is as Anilina 360 put it a circular exchange the UK gets the Taurus according to Cameron his plan the UK then sends the storm shadows to Ukraine yeah yeah I mean this is such an extraordinary story the thing to say straight away is that of course Cameron comes up with this I mean bizarre plan I mean it is absolutely bizarre I mean you know assuming that the Russians are stupid that they don't understand what's really going on and that the German people are you know stupid also and that they really won't mind if Taurus missiles are sent to Britain which then surprised them to Germany at our church site in Ukraine and in return Britain gives storm shadows to Germany I mean it's of course we come along and we have Anilina Berbach who is this ultra-hardline person and she comes along and says what a good idea let's think and see whether we can move forward with this she is always within Germany the extreme hardline walk but within hours of that we get more as Pistorius the German defense minister saying no we're not going to do this thing and then of course we get a further statement from Scholz himself so we're not supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine we're not doing it directly and we are not doing it indirectly either and that this decision is final that is what he said so he's drawing the strongest red line against this that he has drawn up to this point now you know he's crossed those red lines before perhaps he will again but again I sort of get a sense that the mood in Germany is shifting it's shifted amongst the public quite a long time ago apparently most Germans now are police a plurality of them believe that Russia is going to win the war so I mean that's the first thing to say but beyond that I think the military and the political class are also aware that Ukraine is going to lose the war and I think they were badly spooked by the release of that recording of the German generals talking with each other about Germany German soldiers operating Taurus missiles and the Taurus missiles being used to strike at the Kirch Bridge and Russian ammunition dumps and Krasundar region and that kind of thing and I think that the consensus has now developed within a part at least of the German political leadership that this is just too dangerous and it's going too far so I think that for the moment at least they're backing off this and I get the sense that on this occasion bear bork is isolated and even most of the Greens don't really support it remember the German parliament has twice voted against a supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine so again it's it's the same story really the Germans very keen on supporting Ukraine last year giving Ukraine everything that Ukraine was asking for they gave Ukraine the leopard two tanks they've seen the leopard two tanks go up in smoke you know apparently more than half of them have now been knocked out it's been very very bad picture the optics for Germany have been very bad and they're hearing stories that the Ukrainians don't like and aren't impressed by the leopard two and they see Ukraine going down and they say enough's enough we can't go on doing this again the sunk costs fallacy is not one we're going to fall for there are still it must be said plenty of advocates of further commitment by Germany to Ukraine bear bork is one you know some parts of the German media also built satan for example constantly pressing the stronger and stronger commitments to Ukraine but I think the general mood in Germany is that they're shifting away from this enterprise it hasn't worked out Germany's in recession the Russian economy remained strong nothing has worked out as they expected that it would and more and more people than Germany is saying the Americans are having doubts and it's time for us to do the same yeah we'll we'll discuss this in a separate video in a dedicated video talking about Europe and and NATO's involvement in Ukraine and macaron's all of macaron's statements with regards to Ukraine but since you're on the subject of Germany very quick question maybe macaron's escalatory rhetoric with regards to Ukraine is a way for macaron to to really stick it to Germany to present himself as as the hard line leader the guy that stood up to to Russia and and Putin knowing that that there will be no troop commitment to Ukraine but you know I was a guy that's that called for more weapons and more troops and said to go full-on war with Russia Germany in its weak state in its weekend state they decided to the backtrack so France is now the the top dog in in Europe Germany is diminished Germany's a fading power and here I am a little Napoleon Jupiter well discusses in a dedicated video we'll go deeper into this but what are your initial thoughts I mean briefly I agree with that one of the one of the reasons one of them I absolutely I mean bear in mind you know macaron doesn't get on with Schultz I get the impression that macaron doesn't get on with any of the German leaders they hate each other but I mean he didn't he wasn't he wasn't on easy terms with Merkel before I mean he he's always resented German leadership in Europe and of course as you absolutely right he said this is his way of sticking it to the Germans which has of course made his relations with the Germans even worse it's a foolish game that macaron's play but you can see that the Germans aren't getting irritated again Pistorius the defense minister who is in German terms very much a hawk I mean he's very much wanted to support Ukraine he sent Ukraine lots and lots and lots of weapons anyway even Pistorius said look this talk about sending troops to Ukraine night oh yeah you troops do Ukraine it's irresponsible they must stop you actually said that yeah all right we will leave it there the duran.locals.com we are on rumble Odyssey it should telegram and rock fin and go to the duran shop and Alex Ender we have a limited edition St. Patrick's Day shirts wow the shop right now running so check out the link down below in the description box and pick up a very cool St. Patrick's Day shirt all right we will end the video there take care [Music]