(upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - E-G-E-A nation! - We are back, and we are back, with the officially unofficial, thick major, and more challenging, very exciting week in the world of golf. I can't wait to take this one down. At least for what we've been looking for, we finally have what we will call a full field, which feels odd now at March 12th to be saying that what could be the first time all season with a really full field, so it should be a fun week. I'm excited to get into sawgrass. Spence, how are you doing today? - Doing well, it was a good tournament last week at the Arnold Palmer, had Scotty Sheffler in the outright market. It's kind of like I talked about on a lot of shows. Bay Hill was one of those courses that really presented the ability for a ball striker like Sheffler to have some of that putting mitigated, just so happens that Sheffler actually made putts with the new flat stick he had. So that's a dangerous combination for a golfer like him entering the players' championship this week. - I mean, listen, there's no question Scotty Sheffler is right now, the best golfer in the world. He's been for a good amount of time. At this point, I think we've talked about this before on this show, but now it's a really come into fruition. It feels like there is such a change in the field of golfers, and Scotty is playing so well that they have to change the pricing because if they kept Scotty at like 10K, he would just, you would go in at 70 percent, oh, under 65 percent, I would just kind of lose the field. So now we're getting the 5K range. We're getting this 12K-ish Scotty Sheffler, which is like, makes you really have to make some tough decisions on how to do roster construction. It's really changing how we play, which is interesting, new, unique, it's a fun twist. We'll see what route people are taking on this show this week. David, how are you doing tonight? - Good mate, good to be here. Nice to start off with a bit of Biggie Smalls. You know, if he is a true player, put your hands in the air. You know, that's how we roll. And here for the players' championship, obviously, and pretty excited to see this golf course. You know, it's so iconic. I mean, beyond just the path 3/7 team, you've got the 16th par four, which for me is one of the most underrated holes in golf. You can make anything from a three to a seven there. Very, very volatile tournament. So super excited to see how the players all play. Obviously, you slightly work in field compared to what we've seen in the year, but the overall depth of the field is still extremely impressive and looking forward to see who comes out on top come Sunday. - I love that. And to your point, because of the unique challenge of this golf course, unless someone is out there with like a five show clue, which I don't envision, it's going to be an exciting finish because anything can happen on these last few holes. You know, you can go in the water on 17 and then all of a sudden the gluten board can flip. So at the very least, it's going to be a fun watch. I mean, if you're watching this show, we have to assume you're watching the tournament. So it's going to be a fun week of golf. If you're new to the show, if you're doing it for the first time, we are going to do a draft. We're going to draft four teams and audience. You will be drafting one as well. It will be a snake style draft. So it works like it would a typical fantasy football draft. I will break it down for you right before we get into before we do so. Spence gives the best course breakdown in the industry. And Spence, I want you to tell us what you're looking for this week at Sawgrass highlighting. This is how you make a difference. This is how you know what type of golfer profile to target to get you an edge and what looks to be, at least from my early site, a field where you have everyone, but there's definitely some heavy ownership leaning towards some of the favorites. And so you're going to need to find a way to find some different guys that will need me to be different than everyone else in the field. Yeah, I mean, I think when you look at TPC Sawgrass, there are at least a few really interesting notes about the course. So maybe if you compare this to like 10 seasons ago, like 2019, we got this massive change that occurred here. And that's why I think anybody who's running numbers that are deeper than that's probably making the mistake. This tournament moved from May to March in 2019. I've always believed in, and this is what I used to write about in my articles years ago, like that summer temperature when we got this tournament in May, that gave us this Bermuda surface that was still dormant. It was going to be playable, but dormant from the winter. It created this extremely fiery test that made stopping your irons on these smaller than average greens nearly impossible. You're still going to get a lot of that lightning quick surface that we've become accustomed to over the years. But I guess more of where I'm going with this answer is that the Bermuda grass gets overseeded on all parts of the course. That creates a much softer landing area that has, at least for the past handful of years, allowed better shot shaping and control with your irons from anywhere on the track. You're going to have difficulty. There's 17 holes with water. There's 88 bunkers that are put in the place that are going to cause havoc. I noted this on a podcast earlier today. When you look at strokes getting around the green, it's still an amplified return because of these smaller putting surfaces that I mentioned, but I kind of think they're hard the way inside of a model just because you have these shaved runoff areas. That allows multiple options to be considered when attempting to get up and down from off the surface. That's one of the reasons why a golfer like Victor Havelin has found success here. When you give somebody the ability to put from off the surface, it kind of changes the game plan a little bit. So I added a hint to three putt avoidance. I mixed that in with strokes getting around the green to combine both of those factors together. Anytime you get a peat dye nature, you're going to get those forced layups. That's going to be critical to account for. You don't necessarily have penal rough here, but for me, this course is extremely volatile, even with all of that being said, you don't have to look any further than some of the course history returns from the past five years and beyond. You have a guy like Scotty Sheffler. He misses the cut. He comes 55th. He wins the tournament. Rory has a victory, a handful of missed cuts thrown into the mix here. So I think from a DFS perspective, one of the ways that I'm doing is I'm trying to condense down my player pool a little bit so I don't have exposure to as many players this week. I want to be very concentrated in where I am going to attack. Joel, you mentioned a really good point, and it is a volatile tournament, which even makes it more heightened. We do have ownership landing in all the same spots. I don't think old chalk is bad. You're going to have to make decisions of what are the right moves and the wrong moves here. But it's a very difficult venue when we look at past history. Yeah. And there's a lot of factor. A few things we already mentioned tonight in the first few minutes of the show. There's a bunch of new factors. It's not the first tournament that ever they're doing this like new model of 5k golfers and 12k golfers. But it's not normal, right? I mean, they've only done it, let's say a handful of times. To your point, there's this really odd to me for a full field condensed ownership that you got to sit through for who you're going to play. It's an extremely volatile course. And we haven't seen this many of the big names in one tournament yet this year. So there's a lot of converging things this week that I think this makes this week really exciting and a lot of fun to break down. But we got a draft ahead of us. Let it not bury the lead. We'll pull the draft board. Audience, we're going to give you the first pick tonight. So go ahead, get started. Put your nominations in. It will take two before you lock it in. And like I said, it's a snake style draft. So I'm going to go audience me, David and spend spends. You'll have two and then we'll go back. Keep in mind, you do need to stay within a draft. Kings hour. So you can't just take all the best players. You have to make sure you draft a team that you can actually play on draft games. Without further ado, audience, you are on the clock. And as we wait for that first pick as the second reminder, anyone is new tonight. The way your pick gets taken is you put a nomination in. Everyone can nominate a player. Once someone gets seconded. So once a second vote comes in on that player, that becomes your pick. So there it is. It's Scottie Scheffler. Obviously the first one in. I mean, there's no complaints about Scottie Scheffler, especially in what this ends up being. It's like a small tournament. Scottie Scheffler is safe. Hard to imagine a poor result from him. Nobody would be surprised if he wins the tournament. Nobody's going to have anything negative to say. I don't think he said maybe sometimes the putter about Scottie but that's the best golfer in the world right now. David, let's say you want Scottie Scheffler. Yeah, look, I mean, the selection makes sense. I find it really interesting. I'll be interested here from Spencer on his ownership numbers and Steve Piladi when his article drops with the best ownership numbers in the industry over at Windaddy Sports. Because I have him at 33%, which I find amazing given the huge jump and price that we're seeing here. In betting markets, he's five to one. One of the shortest that we've seen in quite some time before Tiger Woods. And that obviously comes off the back of what he did last week at the Arnold Palmer winning by five strokes and that he won here by five strokes the year prior. The thing for me is this is one of the most volatile golf courses that we'll see on the PGA Tour. It ranks in the top six for volatility over every single year since 2015. There's a lot of water in play. And although on the face of it, the winners of this golf tournament is all been pretty short odds. We're pretty close to this reading like Jim Furyk and about Lahiri. Like some real like outsiders having one at this golf course as well. And my question I guess comes. You're choosing a lot of salary with this Sheffler. I understand it. I'll be surprised if he finishes outside the top 10. But the question comes on a golf course with such volatility. Are you better taking a more balance route, saving some of your salary cap and getting a bit different in teams ownership as well? And you know, at this point in the season, the question to me around Sheffler isn't as he's going to play well. I think you're almost I'd be shocked if you didn't get a good result. It's the question of can you build a better roster with him and five other guys that could be a little bit more valued versus maybe probably getting three maybe like guys in that high eight nine K range and then three medium tier guys. What roster do you like better? Scotty in the top 10 is a near walk and you're going to get a top 10 at least unless he wins the tournament is Scotty in the top 10. Good enough at 12.8. That's the question. All right, I got the second pick here. And I am going to follow my same strategy from last week. I'm going to start with value. I'm going to start with the same guy. I'm going to start with a guy that has just been playing unbelievably great golf. He didn't disappoint last week at 7,800. I think he's now playing above his price tag. The consistency has been there since all of February's and now we're looking at a month and a half and that's time hope. And the main thing that gives you the most confidence with the whole is it's all ball. He's a great ball striker. That's the most consistent stat that carries over. I have to imagine he's going to strike the ball very well again this week. And for our purposes, you know, I feel like he also won. I think there's some upsides on top 10 upside out of him at under a K. I also think he's pretty safe from the standpoint. I think you're going to get like worst case. He falls in the 30s or something like that where in a tournament like this, that at 7,800, that will be okay. So there are a few value guys I really like. I think he's going to carry a good amount of ownership, which I don't love. But I'll find other places to get different. I'll go to you on this one, Spencer. You play in Hogi at all this week. You know, I want to backtrack to David's comment very quickly as I move into here with Hogi because I think it's interesting for both of these notes. And it's a little bit different from Hogi and Scheffler here. But because we do have so much ownership in some of these spots. From a game theory perspective, like the game theory and the contrarian route in me consistently wants to try to find a reason to fade almost everybody that is going to have popularity to them. I haven't decided yet what I'm going to do with Scheffler because I do think that it's interesting what David's talking about there. Hogi is a little bit different. We've gotten a lot of talk recently. And I was afraid and I'm curious to see where this number comes in. I was afraid that this was going to be 25, 30% for Hogi. And then all of a sudden, at least according to my numbers, we've gotten a little bit of pushback lately to where some of these names that had some popularity with them seem to be dropping a little bit just because of this narrative of don't get caught playing the chalk. So if Hogi ends up being 14, 14 and a half, 15% like I currently have them, I think that's a good value play for him still. It's a nice price for the ball striking that he returns with a player who has the course record here at TPC Sawgrass. So it's going to be an ownership play almost across the board. But I don't have a problem as long as he's around that 15% mark. Yeah, I totally agree. One of the things that the exercise I'm going through more recently of how to ensure I don't go too chalky is I never want to go away. If someone's super chalky, I don't mean this and I don't want to play them. I'm okay with playing super chalky players. You just have to look at your roster as a whole. If you are going to play a really chalky guy or two, just make sure you have a couple pretty low on you guys. A couple of guys that are in the single digits. If you balance it out, I think it works fine. I think totally avoiding one or two guys that happen to be chalky is definitely not my strategy. It's just making sure if I do play them, I get different elsewhere. David, on to you. Love to get your stance on Hogi and you're on the clock. Yeah, I do like Tom Hogi here this week. Look, I think you need to buy the bullet in terms of the odds. We put him up in the 2023 players championship. He finished third. The odds we got on him last year was 150 to one. Obviously, you're not going to find anywhere near that at the moment in terms of his pricing and betting markets. Arguably comes in here with much better form. When we put him up last year before he finished third, he'd missed the cut of the young parm of the week before. Obviously, last week he finished 12 film within our betting picks and he just striped the field in approach. Really like him here this week. I was surprised with the ownership at 13%. He's the highest owned of the 7K range, but 13% seems a little bit too low for where he's priced the incoming form, the past history here. Also at Wentworth, which if you're looking over on the DP World Tour is a really good guide for what you can expect this week, there's lots of correlation. Guys like Aaron, Roy, Shane Lowery, Victor Holland's finished fifth year. Last two attempts and has a good record of TPC sawgrass as well. if I didn't mention Meridian. Christian Pazadinhout as well links those two courses and he finished 14th at winworth and is very fierce to look on that course so he ticks that box too for me so really like to play there. I'm also going to go a bit of value a little bit higher than then Hogi but I'm going to take the Diki Metzuyama in 9800. Again I was surprised with his ownership here. I'm getting like just over 13% I know he's perineal favorite of Joel but he has a draft in this week so he's definitely going to play the entire tournament not going to withdraw so he hasn't got the curse of Joel hanging over him but look Hogi's been an awesome form right. He wanted the Genesis in another really strong field. He finished 12th last week at the Arnold Palmer. I was quite worried with him at the Arnold Palmer then entering the final round because I found that if he won or finished top 5 he would just be absolutely cut in order markets and priced up way too high and DFS to justify playing him but fortunately his final round he found the ward of twice and finished 12th in the end which actually I think is a benefit coming in here because this is a course that really suits him. He's finished 7, 8, 5th here previously. He's got a third at such field that's like one of the most correlated courses. We'll see all season in terms of comp courses. Web Simpsons won it both. He loves the Wyndham so much he named his daughter Wyndham. See who comes one at both. So you've got good links there. Henry Extenson was one of both as well and Hideki's obviously got the third at that course too. So Hidden as well is in 2020. The tournament that wasn't. He broke the then course record here shot 9 under in the first round before the tournament called because of COVID. So that's a little bit hidden as well and and obviously you're diving into some of the data. You might miss the fact that Metziyama absolutely loves this course so I'm at 100 very happy to take him. I think you hit it spot on. Take a guy who likes the course married with a guy who's playing really good in good form. That's a that's something they like and you know what's interesting I think rightfully so. It wasn't too long ago where Metziyama was and it may have been even less than a month ago. Metziyama was down into the 7K range and we were all like this is criminal like a wise he phrased a lot like he wasn't even chalky at 7K it was just like normal and now a couple weeks later he's almost at the 10K range and a couple good weeks of golf and then put him on a golf course that he likes what that can do for you so rightfully so I like Hideki this week. Spence would love your take on Hideki and you got two. I think when we look at Hideki. I mean I agree with David with the answer of the ownership was probably a little surprising it's probably because he's priced up though like there there's a lot of names in that. We'll call it Victor javelin at 10 one all the way down to I don't know Shane Lowry at at 9 1 like there's a lot of ownership that's going to be eaten up in that spot. I haven't necessarily narrowed down that player pool of who's in and who's who's out yet there are three guys that I do like more than Hideki so we'll see where Hideki ends up fitting into the mix for me but I don't have anything bad to say and I mean as the chat has talked about. I mean that COVID year Devin is right I mean this was this was all had deck he in that first round until the tournament got canceled and that was a very unfortunate outcome as somebody who had had had deck he has my one and done pick that year so you know I think had deck he has shown high upside at this venue in the past. I will move us forward into my picks and I've talked a lot about ownership and I'm going to go with two very popular plays here in the $8,000 range which is going to make me have to get different at some point but I'm going to start with Russell Henry at 8600. I know the one argument for him would be that a lot has been done with the putter right now. I understand that this isn't necessarily your prototypical Bermuda course this over seeded texture makes a little bit of a subtle change to it but when you look at Russell Henry and somebody made this joke on Twitter I saw this last week at the Arnold Palmer that he made a handful of putts the announcer said that he's a great putter and we all know who do this every single week that he's not a great putter. I do want to say though that when you have historically thrown him on similar green complexes that put together this soft green but really quick surface still to the mix. Henry has been or is the biggest climber in my model jumping all the way inside the top 10 and expectation while he's outside of the top 80 the other way so while there's some popularity around him. I was also surprised to only see about 14% I thought this number was going to be vastly higher like if you look at any of the betting markets and any of the head to head markets out there. He's a favorite against every single person in this $8,000 range. My model would agree with that answer of him being the best play in the 8,000 so I'll go with him for my first pick and then I am going to circle back down beneath to a player I play quite a bit and see who Kim at 8,000. This is the past champion of this tournament. If you look at what he did last week at the Arnold Palmer, he gained 9.1 strokes T to green. He lost over 8 strokes with his putter. That is not necessarily some abnormal performance from him at Bay Hill. We've seen that in the past of him losing 567 strokes during that event. The reason that surface just is not conducive to his eye. When you put him on this venue, when he won the tournament, he gained a little bit over a stroke. I think he puts together one of those neutral performances. This can be one of those Scotty Sheffler-esque sort of outlooks to where maybe he's not Scotty Sheffler in the ball striking but he can be one of those pristine ball strikers that if the putter can just be neutral all of a sudden we're talking about a top 10 from him. I do think he's value here at 8,000. I love it. I'm noticing an interesting trend. I've heard us mention course history and guys who historically play well here more often than I thought. Which is interesting to me. I do value that. I thought that would be something that maybe wouldn't have been as valued this week because of the volatility. I do endorse both plays. David, you got one. Love your take on both Siwu and Henley. Who you looking to match with a decade? To back up the point, what you said around a course history, it isn't that correlated to future success at this course. One of the least correlated actually on the PGA Tour, compared to other venues because of the volatility which you absolutely spot on to to point out there. Russell Henley, I was extremely, extremely close to including on my car this week at 55 to one on open. He's been backed into 40s in most places. I think that 55 to one was a really good value. I just couldn't swallow the drop compared to what we had last year. I actually put him up here again at 150 to one on this golf course back in 2023, finished 19th. And then obviously he's a third of that price now. The question comes to me with Henley is like, he's been striking the ball so well. He's playing as a top 20 golfer in the world at the moment, but he should have won. He should have won by this point. In the same, we were on him at the Sony Open. He should have closed out that tournament. Last six hours he played at one over and he finished fourth when he really should have gone out and finished the victory. He has all the correlation in the world at Siegefield. He's finished 9th, 7th, 3rd, 2nd, and this last ball starts there, extremely correlated to what we'd expected the players. So I get the pick. My question comes, does he close it out and does in Spencer's construction? I'll be interested to see how the rest of his line goes because I'm not sure if there were any could be the year compared to others that he might end up taking. So he was probably a pass on me with the putter. The putter still remains concerned for me. It depends which one he uses. He goes the broomstick or the traditional shorter handle putter because one of them he's very good with and the other he sucks with. And I don't know why he keeps sticking with it. He just likes to chop and change between the two and that. That remains the real big question for him. I was going to take a very low golfer, but I'm going to hope that he comes back to me and take someone that I think might not make a back, which is Brian Harmon at 7900. I think he is going to be a popular player, although I'm surprised that his ownership is only hovering around 10% and I thought that he would be much, much higher than that. Last week at the Arnold Palmer, he was third in the field for approach on a golf course. It's really actually too long for him. It's not typically his strength to be striking on approach that that golf course seems third in the field, which is amazing. And lost strength putting and we all know how good a putter at Brian Harmon is typically as well. So that was a little bit Norman can't put him on the radar. Good correlation here to Harvard town. Another Pete died design host of the obviously heritage. He finished seventh year. He was third here in 2021 and good correlation at the the Wyndham Championship as well. So there's lots to like I think about Brian Harmon this week and he seems a bit undervalued at the current price tag. I agree. I think Brian Harmon times the play up in the bigger tournaments and play a little bit better. I think this spot under 8k you know that if he's in the mix with the big boys that he can stay and compete there because we've seen him do it. I think it's a good value by especially when you're looking for ways this week which can be more challenging to get different because I don't think he's in the carry in a really high ownership tag. Spence, let's say you on Harmon. I made this argument on a show earlier this week so. Behill was 100% of course that was too long for him. There was a reason why my model had him as one of the best fade candidates on the board. It did not work out correctly. Thankfully there wasn't a matchup that entered the space that I actually found value on that oppose him with but that doesn't take away from the fact that my model thought he was mispriced in a bad way. Last week so when he goes out there he gives you a 12th place finish he gains 5.6 strokes with his irons and now all of a sudden you throw him out of venue here where he does have two top 10 finishes. My model has so many upside traits that it likes about him. There are certain ways that I can run my model that it believes he's a 40 to 1 golfer. He was one of the first tickets I punched when he opened at 70 to 1. I think he's a really savvy play at the ownership that we're seeing right now. I also think that there's a legitimate case to be made that because he's a major championship winner and maybe it's just been a little too much out of sight out of mind recently with it up until last week. I think he should have been closer to the $9,000 range if we're being honest here. Whether you want to say that he's a couple hundred dollars over price or a thousand dollars underpriced here like this is a situation with Harmon where there's real value to be found in the betting market and here on DraftKings. I love it. I love it. All right. I am stuck here between two guys I'm thinking about. I'm going to go with my gut and my instinct which is going to be dug in. Listen, I get it. Talk to talk to talk to talk. I own that. Yeah, it's chalky. I get it. I'm going back to the well. But here, the thing is, and that's the beauty of the draft cast. Shepherd's gone. You know, Matsuyama's gone. We'll see what comes back to me when I get to my higher price guys, but I think I'm going to get different with paying up and I'll just have the chalky value which I think that can work. I'm going to give him since late January has his worst result is in is a top 20. He's in the top 20 every tournament he's played. So to get a guy under 7K that's done nothing but top 20s in the last two months. Since January. I like where that puts him here. I think he's playing well enough to compete this week even in a more loaded field, especially where he found a hot putter last week if he carries any of that hot putter over to this week. I'm not a higher upside top 10 might be in play. So I'm okay with thinking the chalk here, go to 1600 game and I'll find ways to get different elsewhere. Audience, you're on the clock. It looks like at least one pick is already in. Great job. We'll wait for that second one to get double which it may have been. Yeah, the second one is double. The audience did a great job. Before we go on to the audience, we'll start with you, David. Are you on? Give him it all this week. Yeah, absolutely right. He's banging form right for consecutive finishes of 16 for better, although somewhat debatable. The quality of those fields, right? And has had a six year in 2022. My question with Kim comes right like we see a real disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards at this golf course. Typically, that's not the strongest of his prior changes. Six plays finished in 2022 might might disregard that a little bit, but that would be my big question mark of yes, he's in form, but does the approach metrics really suit the game that he has and also credit to the audience. I mentioned that a golfer. I was hoping would come back to me. That was Billy Hoe. So unfortunately, they've stolen that one from. Oh, you know what I love about the audience here the continuity. They were locked in on value. They said if they took Sheffield, we're going to get value. They came in, got their picks in quick and got doubled quick. The audience is in sync tonight, which is scary because there's a big crew tuned in. And if you guys are all the same page. Look out. Could be a good start to your team. Spence, I want to go to you here. I love your take on the three aspects between Jim, rye and Billy Hope. I was kind of surprised to see that Kim's ownership was taking a very similar trajectory to some of these other players like Tom Hoege where it was a little bit lower than I was anticipating it being. I agree with David that some of the proximity numbers are a little bit worse for him than some of his baseline totals elsewhere but my model loved him. Not on Billy Horshel, but for me, Aaron Rye was the player that I was hoping was going to fall back to me. And I know that would be a very popular start for me to go Henley, see who Kim and Rye. I still had a way to get different with it, but there's a lot to like about Rye when I was running some of the projections and I was trying to extrapolate it out from past performances. He was consistently one of the biggest underachievers in my model at this course. It came in 19th year but even my model thought he should have been better than that finished when he presented that result. So, I think there's a real reason to why the form is in place. We have a price tag that is too cheap and the market is moving in the favor of like he is a favorite against Doug Gimme who's everybody's favorite person this week down in the $6,000 range. So, I think for Rye to be a favorite over him, that means something to me like you can be a favorite over somebody that I want to fade and it means a lot less. It means a lot more when it's a guy like Gimme that the public likes a bunch of sharp money like Gimme so that is a very telling sign of where the sharp money is entering the space here on Rye. There you have it, love that intel and just like that, I am back on the clock and I am ashamed of myself for the amount of chalk that I'm taking on. I guess this number isn't as high as I originally thought it was. I'm going to go with Willy Z here. I'm going back to Willy's Altaurus, you know, I think we've seen, I'm pretty confident he's turning that corner. He looks to be like his old self, he's playing well, he's striking the ball well, and he's even making a few putts. And if you can get any consistency out of that putter with the wall shining here from Willy Z, there's a ton of upside. Let's not forget, it wasn't that long ago, maybe two seasons ago, Willy Z was a top five priced golfer in every tournament he played in, right? And he's creeping up to that, he's not quite there right now, but he's pretty darn close. I think we're just going to see the trajectory go up and up. I think this could be, this is going to be the bounce back here for Willy Z, so at nine, nine, I'm happy. I think it's almost a value under 10k. Will go to you spent first, any interest in Willy's Altaurus this week? My only concern with Zallotaurus that always comes into play is this short game of his 131st in my model and three putt avoidance if I believe that there's an ability to putt from off the surface. He is the number five overall scrambler of the golf ball though in 2024 number one overall so that's kind of like the. Contrary take I guess to base off of that answer there the weighted scoring hasn't inside the top 10. I have a ninth overall in my model right now he is the four five six seventh price player. I think he's priced correctly at the end of the day. I don't have a massive take one way or another with it. I think for GPPs with the ownership that we're seeing I probably lean towards being out for that reason but I think he's a very in the ballpark of where he should be. Yeah, I would agree. I think that makes sense. David would love your take on Willy Z this week and you're on the clock with your third pick. Yeah, I don't mind Willy Z this week. Obviously the recent form has been really, really good. You know, I'm not ashamed to say we got a bit of extremely good number in our masters future which you're never going to find again, which is one of the reasons to be locked into to when daily so make sure you take advantage of the best deal either which is in the description and the moment we've brought it back exclusively for the players and masters lead in. So yeah, look, he was great value for the masters when we put him up. That's obviously been cut down and it does look like he's in great form and the putter looks good. Although there were moments with the Arnold Palmer, you know, there's a couple of five footers there which, you know, his practice stroke looks so good. And then he steps up and then looks like he develops Parkinson's like halfway through his backswing and a couple of those shorter parts there and that would worry me a little bit if that started regressing. My comment around him would be, I don't know if it's like form here and it's correlated form at other courses, even when he has been healthy has been that good. So I'm a bit surprised with the number and personally out of those kind of that kind of range I'm going to be going a lot more than the willowsie and saving on the ownership myself so once again, congrats the audience for ruining my draft and stealing stealing Billy ho off me there. I have more on my article in wind daily sports over there on Billy ho and exactly why I think this is a great tournament for a mat at pretty, pretty long odds. So I'm going to go back to the 8100, try and steal someone from Spencer. And I'm going to take Benie on at 8100 there. He's just been a great form as of late. Obviously, three tournaments a row is finished 21st or better, eight last week at the Arnold Palmer. Very good correlated courses right like set field is finished second and third with talk about how correlated that is and then in terms of went with Obviously, that's one of the most correlated on the DP world tour. He was a winner of the year back in 2015. So great correlation as well. And for me, he's a much better golfer than he has been previously obviously been back to the corn fury he's right back on the PGA to adjust in an awesome form data golf for heaven ranked as the 20th best golfer in the world right now. And I think he's great value at 8100 and he's not really attracting in the ownership as well, which I also like Boom, and that's big. All those factors like those are the type of upside guys that work in this tournament where you're in a low ownership because of the range he's in more than the talent of the golfer and I think many ends a guy who we've seen spike this year. There's certainly a lot of upside. I endorsed that pick spent you got to would love your take on Benny and and who you parent with him Lee and see what there were essentially. I mean female was very close in the $8,000 range, but there were essentially three players in the $8,000 section that my model thought had value compared to their price tag. I grabbed two of them with my first two picks. The third one would be been on there so I think at 8100 he's certainly worth considering there. I am conflicted on how to round out this build right now. There's a lot of different ways to go. I will go with the players so to start this and then move across from there but there has been a stat and it's a combination of a stat for me. It takes proximity from zero to 150 yards and scrambling and it merges it into one answer there and that has been a highly indicative corollary trend of winners or at least high end results. So, you know, these names I'm going to say there's reasons why they won this golf tournament. They were some of the best players or the best player at the time. But Scottie Sheffler ranked number one in that area last year when he won it. Justin Thomas was number one in that area when he wanted in 2021. This season, the number one player for me in that metric, Max Homa, I think Max Homa right now, the current form is trending in the right direction. The course history here is at least the last two years about as good as you're going to find so I will take him at 9600. The second pick here is where I struggle of where I want to go because it really locks me into a decision of one way or another with it. I think I'm going to go with Adam Hadwin at 7500. There's been probably for the past, I would say month or so. Hadwin's been a name that's consistently been popping in my model at the 52nd last week was undone. The fourth at the Genesis was the good output of it. He's kind of gotten these hit and miss results with him where he's randomly inside the top 15. He's randomly missing these cuts. But David makes a point where there is really no correlation between past success at TPC Sawgrass and what we think. But I do want to make the argument that at least in the last five years of this, there's something that we can point towards with this change in Hadwin's made four or five cuts. But at 7500, there was maybe a little bit more safety that met the eye than what you're going to get at the price tag there. And some of the upside numbers in my model really liked them. He was one of the biggest climbers that I had when looking for that upside trajectory. I bet him to come top 20 at three to one for that reason. There's going to be downsides with any of these answers for the obvious reasons when you kind of get here. 20th for me in that category, I talked about a scrambling plus zero to 150 yard proximity inside the top 25 for bogey avoidance, the weighted 3% as you put together and weighted scoring. To me, he's the consolation prize that I'm trying to get if I miss out on Brian Harmon and Tom Hoege where I think there's still some upside to be found with him. There's another name too that we can get to later in the show, but I'll go with Adam Hadwin for the sake of this. There you have it. And to your point, he definitely, there's something he likes here. I mean, if you just look at his last few at this course. He has, he's had some good results. So he likes something here at under 8k. I think you will find some upside. I like the Hadwin play more than Homa. I have concerns with Homa. You know, we've seen Homa strike or spike peak peak with his ball striking in the past and that's just up the case now. I do think Homa is an upper tier upper echelon golf rock. I certainly can see a world where he gets that back, but I just have concerns with the current state of his game. David, what say you on Homa and Hadwin and you are up with your fourth bet? Yeah, look, I like both of the players. I think that Max Hoege may take your point on the approach, but typically his best bet actually comes under 150 yards, which is what we're going to find a lot of this week. And the ninth and 13th place finishes his last two routings here kind of makes sense. I think it looks like he's sailing to peak at the right time. I think a lot of work with the part of last week with me, I only miss giving, whether that perhaps sees a bit of regression this week would be my only question mark. And Adam Hadwin looks pretty solid as well. 10th is at the Wyndham Championship over at Seachfield in 2021, finished ninth and 13th year, the last two years as well. So good correlation in terms of the courses lost with the part of last week, which is typically a real strength of his as well. And compared to Homa, you'd almost expect the opposite in hopefully some regression as putting stats for Hadwin there. So I'm going to go, I'm going to actually stick at that same price range, 8100. I have a lot of miss givings about this pick, so bear with me because I do think that there comes some risk with this. We're taking a bit of a punch when we say Tom Kim has got a great chance this week. The golf course that on paper should suit him perfectly. The issue is that in 23.4, his putters just really fall him off the map and that's typically such a strong suit of his game. In saying that the last four, he's been basically at field average or above in a row. So hopefully his putters kind of starting to turn the corner. Obviously I've spoken pretty extensively about the huge correlation between Seachfield and TPC Sawgrass. We all know what Tom Kim did at the Wyndham Championship. He opened with a quadruple bogey and then went on and won the tournament by quite some margin on that golf course there, right? So very good correlation to here and I think I'm just starting to see enough trends in this game to suggest that he's probably value at the 8100. The reason why we're getting that price is because the form hasn't been great and the putter looks like starting to turn a corner. So happy to take a little chance on him there. It makes sense, you know, I'm almost scared off by Tom Kim as well, but I think all the points you made are good. I think one thing that played into his favor this week. Hey there, did you know King Supers always gives you savings and rewards on top of our lower than low prices? And when you download the King Supers app, you'll enjoy over $500 in savings every week with digital coupons. And don't forget fuel points to help you save up to $1 per gallon at the pump. Want to save even more? With a boost membership, you'll get double fuel points and free delivery. So shop and save big at King Supers today. King Supers, fresh for everyone. Savings may vary by state. Restrictions apply. See site for details. It's a little different type of course in terms of proximity that you're looking for. And he's been playing tournaments recently that were longer, probably wouldn't have been most suited for him. And this is a little bit different. I think this is a little bit more suited for his game. I think this gives him an opportunity to get back to that spot where he was kind of gaining like four or five strokes. A tournament because it's those proximity that will suit him better. So I definitely can see there being some upside there spent. Let's say you on Tom Kim. I have some trepidation kind of for the same reasons as you Joel. I do think though that when we look at Tom Kim and we discussed the profile, there was a time where you and I probably specifically more than most of the rest of the market. Before we got this increased price that he was in the 10,000s every single week. We were kind of saying over and over again, this is an elite golfer. This is an elite golfer. And he proved to be an elite golfer. Now over the past handful of months, the results have kind of gone south. It's kind of plateaued a little bit. At some point, he becomes a value if we're just looking for pure upside. So there are a lot worse start throws that you can do than Tom Kim because at the base surface level of this, you would think the players is a really nice course fit for the way that his game would morph into this venue. Yeah, I agree. It could be sneaky from that standpoint as well. All right, I'm pleased with the way this draft has broken for me where I'm going to be able to let the guy wanted to hear and that is a Ludwig. Now, I had some chalk to start. I got to get different. For this range, I think he's not going to be unknown, but he's not going to be one of the higher own guys in this range, which helps my line up here. I think people are going to look at the honor palmer and see that he lost four stroke done approach and be a little bit scared off. I'm okay with overlooking that. I think what I really love about Ludwig is he's very consistent with the driver and he's long but not wildly. He's very consistent, which is going to be very big here. I think too. He's very consistent with the putter. He's been gaining strokes, putting consistently now for for the entire year. I think he only lost strokes putting one tournament. That was an early January, I go that he's been gaining stroke funding every tournament. And the reality is he's gained strokes on approach every week, but at the API. So, I think that a bad week. I think he gets back to what we've seen from him. I think he's going to speak, find his stroke again here. I think you get another top 10 result. If not top 20 and 9300 it's a really good value in this field. And it enables me to kind of build out a more balanced approach to the rest of my lineup. So, I really like Ludwig this week, all the total package, including ownership and everything like that. We'll go back to you spent here. Are you playing Ludwig at all this week? Yeah, and I think he's a really nice fit to your build when you look at ownership. This is one of the ways where you can get different. You've taken three popular choices. All of a sudden you take a person like Oberg here that I see at about 10%. I think we might have classified Oberg's game of where he found his best success way too early because of the distance that he has off the tee. My model continues to find his best upside actually occurs at some of these club down spots. He's the number one expected total driver for me at this course. To me this feels like a nice buyback opportunity where people aren't going to want to play him. And I think there's a lot of upside to be found here. I don't expect a lot of people to like the play Joel. Pretty much any time that I mentioned in my article yesterday there was some pushback. I was talking to Nick earlier today and I know Nick was hit and miss on what he thought of Oberg also with it. But I think there's something to this from a game theory perspective. And that's the beauty of this game that we play right there is something beautiful about being right and going against the green because it's easy to go with the green and go with the ownership. But you want to go against the green you want to get the lower ownership and when you're right about that that should pay some of that so if you're going to be really good that you're going to have to make picks and what not everyone agrees with and just have to be right about it. Audience you're on the clock we need to it looks like one's in we're going to get one more before we finalize those picks we'll go to David David. What is your take on led biggest. Yeah look I think is a really interesting spot right because on the face of it this golf course is going to take the driver out of your hand a lot right and that that would be living strongest suit on paper you think great you know long straight driver he's going to want to do a golf course like Tori Pines, but then to Spencer point you know he wanted the RSN classic that's like tight fitly course he won on the European tour cranes to his year the omega European Masters again of course we actually driving actually rates really highly highly and it's these like pinpoint greens. He finished 10th that went with him as one try and then 14th that said field as well so again those are really good guides to what you can expect from TPC soil grass and I think from like a pure ownership play is really interesting to me the third lowest owned and that range when I'm Clark and Cameron Young would be the only two within the UK range that I have less than lord for content of ownership so really interesting in terms of that statistics. Again I do worry about taking the driver out but in saying that since the course since this tournament moved from May to March, it's tended to play a little bit longer and there's been a lot of rain and Florida as well so maybe the golf course I can ends up playing a bit longer and he gets to use his driver a bit more often. There you have it. All right. Oh, it is a great job with your first pick is in a favorite of the show this week. Pavone, it's another value play, another way for you guys to make shelf for work. We've seen he has plenty of upside. I like the pick at 6700. On is we are going to need a second while we wait. Oh is it locked. I see the lock button, but I don't see one nomination. It might be female, I'll give it a minute to double check, but we'll take first David will you be playing football and all this week. I won't be playing Pavone this week and the reason why is I mean when we put him up early this year at 125 to one winning one at the farmers you know obviously that was a great victory for him. It looks to be in really good form that the issue for me comes that he's done all of his work on these really long golf courses right like that seems to be where he's found his game not just on the PDA tour but the DP will tour which is one of the reasons why we included him at the farmers was his performance on those longer golf courses and I might my concern with him comes there on these these shorter courses whether it really suits his game and what what we expect him to perform at so I think for me the fact that he's going to be fairly decently owned in the six K range and I don't know if it's a big spot for him he's probably an avoid until he's given TPC soil grass a couple of goes and gotten used to the course. Fair enough audience I can pick his in we are going to lock in Tony Fino. I think the pricing is interesting. I think Tony scares me a bit this week I don't think I'm going to be playing him, but I'd love to get your take spend will you be playing the fee now. It's the same question that we ask about Sheffler and I asked about see who Kim can they make enough putts to work themselves up the leaderboard we have not seen that from female this year. I don't know if it's a good or a bad thing I couldn't even give you an answer to it whether him not playing last week is actually good that he gets to come here not having to take on Bay Hill or if that's a negative that he didn't have to see a course like that but the weighted proximity numbers are going to love him the par five scoring that he's put together this year also he's the number one par five score on the PGA tour this season. Number one in the weighted par five expected par five birdier better percentage at TPC sawgrass so there's a lot of pieces to hold on to that if you are trying to find a reason for upside at 8500 you kind of get that already built in at a cheaper price tag than what this would have been a year ago where I'm sure he would have been in the $9,000 range so I am generally okay considering fee now but you just have to know what you're signing up for with him. I don't think there's going to be a lot of ownership which is a great thing but that short game right now is disastrous I don't know if there's another way to put it. I'm with you there. All right, I'm going to hit the entire draft with some honesty here. I'm very torn between two players and I'm going to tell you who they are because I can't take them full. So it's Justin Thomas and Wyndham Clark. Justin Thomas they've priced him up he's playing great. He's very chalky and at this price and the ownership. I think there's some value to pivoting to Wyndham Clark there's also another value play that I did mine with my last pick that Wyndham Clark affords me to take which I couldn't take with Justin Thomas so I am going to stick with Wyndham Clark here. And it helps this what started off as being a relatively chalky lineup. I am now starting to average out with two lower owned plays with Clark and Abraham. One of the aware, one of the biggest factors behind my Wyndham Clark pick as well as one who played great last week obviously. There's a play up in big spots right and they've been that rumor of like the big game Wyndham and this is it this is a big spot. This is where you can prove yourself so I think this is one of those spots where we get the best out of Wyndham. And if I can get the best out of Wyndham at a lower ownership here it makes perfect sense for this lineup so I'm going to stick I like the Wyndham pick when it was a close call between him and Thomas from the here. I think I'm directly comparing Thomas and Clark $900 difference about a about a seven or eight percent difference right now in ownership with Thomas being over 16% Clark being more in that eight to nine percent range. I probably agree that I would rather play Clark I have some of my hesitations this week about Thomas, not necessarily as high on him as the rest of the market seems to be. Wyndham has a couple portions of his game that probably see a negative downturn specifically for this venue but inside of the top 15 for me overall rank inside of the top 12 for upside those are quite substantial better returns for upside than what I got from Thomas and I know that's a contrary and take this week for as popular as Thomas is going to be but Clark has been a player for me that it seems like we talked about it a lot last year between all of us that Clark's game was trending in the right direction and it just took some time for the rest of the community to figure it out. We now have the price tag where it's it's showing that he's that player but the ownership doesn't necessarily ever want to follow which is what the intriguing answer is when you can give me a sub 10% goal for that has possessed upside over and over again. There you have it. David, you're on the clock. Love your take on Wyndham Clark this week and then you got one more. Yeah, Wyndham Clark's an interesting one right because he has shown up in a big way at these big events as you kind of alluded to I mean since May last year he's won the Wales Fargo he's won the US Open. He won in an elevated event to people beat which was in fact like on paper not really the best course fit for him. Third at the to the championship as well don't forget about that one so these big events like he has just proven that he shows up time and time again. My misgiving is I don't know if it is the best course for him as I said I wouldn't have thought people beat was the best course for him and he seemed to do pretty well there and the driving actually is really I guess where the issue comes with that. In saying that some of these longer drivers can club down they can perform at some of these shorter courses and maybe he's got the metal now to kind of take that more mature approach and leave the driver in the back and take a two line. For example off the tee like something like Ryan Fox does which sees him find success on some of these more fiddly courses. He hasn't done so yet he hasn't performed really well at any of the comp courses or here so that would be the question mark but I think the ownership particularly is intriguing given his performance of life. I love it. I love it. All right you got an 8k left for two picks. Who are you going with first? Yes I'm going to go and cut down some salary savings. I would have loved to have rounded out this line up with something like Billy Ho Jordan's beef kind of finish would have been really nice. Obviously Billy Ho's off the table so I can't do that. Brendan Todd I think within that range is really interesting as well. If you are finding yourself in the 6500 he looks very very good value but I'm going to take a 6900 Nick Taylor. I think that this guy just actually possesses a lot more win equally than give him credit for. We've seen him in contention twice over this past year or so he won the Whitt Canadian Open when he was in another big time at the Phoenix Open winning that as well in a decent field. Last week of the Anapama finished 12th kind of same answer to Brian Harmon right like that is not the course that Nick Taylor should be performing at. It's too long for him. He's not going to excel with his approach over 200 yards which really is what Bay Hill demands and he's much much stronger with his wedges but he's still meant to finish 12th last year gaining strokes on approach. And that kind of I guess is the recipe that I want to follow this week of Refinema on his course here that that suits him a lot better. He's finished 16th here and back in 2019. His Ed is such field which is really correlated. He's got eight in the 10th as well. How the town he's got good success as well previously too so look I really like the course with him in terms of driving accuracy the which play they've got to see from him. As I said we've seen recently that once he's in contention he can confine success. He just seems way too low priced for someone who won just three starts going to really big time event. I like it I like the plan I agree with you I look at Nick Taylor is a high upside you know I think he's pretty volatile you can get a missed cop but I think if he's in it you know he certainly has top 10 upside. Even in a field like this so that's the type of guy I look for profile for a GPP for me. Spence you got to here to run out your squad will love your feelings on Nick Taylor this week and who you're looking at to finish out this draft. Before I even give the picks I love the shout out of Jordan speed. I don't think I'm going to round out this build with him but that has been a way that I've been trying to figure out how to fit speed into this build this entire time and maybe from a construction standpoint it would make a lot more sense for me to go in that direction. There's a there's a very volatile profile to him. He was one of the big climbers in my model though when I looked at expected total driving for similar courses. He also got an increase in weighted proximity so I think speed is an intriguing name in that $9,000 section that people aren't going to want to go to. I think when you get down into the sixes here Nick Taylor was an option that I was considering I was probably going to round this out with some combination of Sam Burns and Nick Taylor or Jordan speed or whichever way I'm going to go with it. I think the safest route to make this build right now I also considered Bo Hosler. I just hate the course history that he has I know he's a different player this year but I think there's a little bit more safety to Brendan Todd so I'm going to take Brendan Todd at 6500. Burns at 9200. Burns was another one of those players like Homa for me where there was this massive increase from that when I combine those two stats together there was two players that ranked in the top five from zero to 150 yards in the scrambling. Homa was obviously one of them Burns was the other there so I think Burns might have a little bit more upside than people believe in really from a betting answer here. I'm quoted at Bay Hill on Sunday he shot a 78. I am curious what that number would have opened at if he did not implode and we got another one of those top 10 finishes from him. So I thought 40 to one was an intriguing value and that price opened up it was one of the first tickets that I bet this week. But that leaves me a lot of money on the table too so if there's a little bit too much ownership that I have in some spots and I do think I have some difference makers that are a little bit unique. There's still a lot of money to leave on the table so I feel fine by making my lineup different that way. I think you made a really good point on Sam Burns. I think Sam Burns is getting a little bit overlooked this week because of one blow up day one bad day I'm like one bad day on a pretty tough golf course you know shouldn't change your outlook on somebody too much so I really like that play. If you look at your squad here David will go to you you got one pick left and any 200 to spend would love your take on Burns in time this week and here how you're going to finish out this squad. Yeah look Brendan Brendan Todd as I mentioned was very close to making my team this week in terms of the way that this draft has gone probably would have liked that billy hoe route if I could have but audience you know shout out to you for stealing them from me. Obviously being paying attention the wind daily discord as a flight. But look I think Brendan Todd is just permanently underrated again last week six of the Annaparma Invitational it's not a golf course he should be playing well it's far too long for him. He prefers these like driving actually courses where you can lean into his short game and just like keep it in the fear and keep it in play. Same again with his which play is just excellent and it seems a really good correlation with that seventh and 10th recently at C3 or diesel side of fourth previously at opposite heritage another Pete die course as well so I like that one there. Sam Burns I was really worried when spent said Brendan Todd because I thought that he might take this next player that I'm going to take which is Shane Lowry at 9100 who you're getting an ownership discount compared to Sam Burns there. Really good course history he's played here and finished 8th he's finished the 18th and he's finished I believe a 16th back in 2016 as well so really good course history and in terms of our correlated courses at the went with he's got an amazing history there is one he said a third 11 17 18 six twice he's had six there so really good correlation to that comp course as well and then obviously the history here as well is really really promising and he's coming in off a fourth at the second and a third of the young apartment so he's banging form really good course comps and he's under priced and less owns than someone like Sam Burns so I think he's a great go at 9100 and happy to round out my team with him there. Yeah I mean Shane Lowry's ball striking has certainly turned a corner in March I mean when March K he's the last two tournaments he's played and he's been absolutely crushing the ball so seeing that old Shane Lowry form the way he's playing well right now Shane Lowry's another guy that I feel like when playing well tends to rise to the occasion where he plays up in some of these better tournaments so I am endorsing that pick for sure. Yes we can be playing well this week. He is I mean we want to talk about betting markets he is a favorite against pretty much every single person that is close to my think Sam Burns would be the one where it's a coin flip of which way it is. There is a sharp book out there that has Shane Lowry minus 170 over Windham Clark. That is a wild number. I'm not saying it's correct or it's wrong necessarily but it's at least something to make you scratch your head and consider. For sure that's interesting food for thought for sure. All right I'm going to round out my squad here listen my instincts are telling me this is a bad pick. But everything on paper tells me that you should take them and I'm going to go with the paper and not my instincts. He's going to be chalky but chalky down here in the 6K range is still like 10% or lower so I think I'm okay with his I'm seeing 9% right now. And that's Andrew Novak Andrew Novak has been playing spectacular at all. And his last three tournaments he has three top 10 so get a guy in his last three outings that has three top 10s at under 6500. That's a new one now obviously the fields weren't quite as strong as this one, but the ball striking has been spectacular. And the big wildcard with Novak is in those last three tournaments he's he lost three strokes putting in and one but at in the Phoenix Open and at the cognitive said he had gained over two strokes putting. He is not typically or historically known to be a good putter if he has found some consistency with that putter and continues to strike them all the way he has. This is a for sure under price and he should be able to compete with those numbers so I'm buying into exactly what the putter the ball striking will be there at this price. He is certainly under price so I want to go ahead and eat that chalk to round out my squad here audience you are on the clock with your last pick you got one left you got nine K to spend plenty of money on the table to get that looks like one nomination is in we need to double wobbly wait we'll go back to you spent any interest in Andrew Novak this week. I think he's probably too cheap for the price tag I would say you're correct there. I do believe and Aaron Ray is going to be popular also like those are going to be the two names that garner most of the ownership. There are ways to get unique and contrarian around them depending on where you find yourself in a build. My model like Maverick McNeely one of the biggest underachievers for me and my model was Ben Griffin. I think Ben Griffin is a savvy name to consider down there at $6,000 but I think when you look specifically at your build Joel you were able to get different with Oberg. And there and you and I don't think Novak has quite the ownership that makes them up I actually have them lower than you do and projected ownership right now we'll see where this ends up going but I had a more at about 7% right now. At this range it's 7% high for 6400 it's very high for that but for the overall scheme of things I'd rather go with the chalky 6400 to 7% than some of these guys that are higher up the end of being the 20 so I'm okay with that. Audience we still need that last pick to be doubled. So we'll wait on that but while we wait David any interest in Andrew Novak this week. It's probably a no for me on Andrew Novak just I yeah I hold some concerns I guess with his correlated course form or lack thereof I mean look he's being informed you're right I mean he's finished eighth, eighth, ninth his last three starts and the puddle looks good gain stroke putting on like similar greens of the cognizant classic obviously still one Florida as well. I just worry a little bit about the mix of like driving accuracy and and overall lack of putting ability so look you might surprise me. I guess other options that I probably prefer in that space like Andrew Putnam last week was really good eight place finish really good on approach probably better part overall then Andrew Novak and he seems to be a little less owned, although you wouldn't have been able to do this because it's just because the picks had already gone like Brendan tone and air and ride within that range rank a bit higher and I reckon that 6200 Ryan Fox is interesting as well, rounding into a little bit of form and he's bit hidden and extremely low on to just to proceed and would have been an interesting way I think to end up your your lineup because I think he possesses a little bit more higher upside than say Andrew Novak, where I definitely agree with you I think there are a lot of playable options in this meeting on 6K range. What I want what I find interesting about tonight's draft is that none of us ended up in the meeting double check again none of us ended up dipping into the 5K range. So I think that's interesting I think that is a sign and look I say every week and I will be at area again this week. You should absolutely build your player pool first, then make your lineups do not allow yourself to make a lineup that you like five guys and just pick some guy in the 5K range because that's all you have left and that one last guy is going to burn your entire lineup. Make sure you only play guys that are within your player pool, and if that means you have to change out a higher price guys and make sure you only have guys that you want to play to begin with, then that's what you do, because that one guy at the end of your lineup is going to be the one that burns you at the end and you will regret it. Audience great job getting that last pick in 18 post in rounding out your squad nicely done that is a wrap for the draft tonight. Excellent time drafting with you all I think is a really exciting week ahead. Before we move on do us a favor hit the like button. Give us a follow it goes a long way of course as we do every week we'll be coming back next week we'll be crowning a champion for this week's draft and we will be bragging about who have the best draft so we'll post these lamps on Twitter give us your vote who do you think right now is going to come out victorious heading in to this tournament which lab you think is going to win we will crown the winner and have bragging rights next Tuesday. We're not without the ones like you who work tirelessly to keep things running everything would suddenly stop hospitals factories schools and power plants they all depend on you no matter the weather emergency or time of day you're the ones who get it done Granger we're here for you with professional grade industrial supplies count on real time product availability and fast delivery call click granger.com or just out by granger for the ones who get it done yeah before we head out for tonight we do have some first round leader plays to run by you we will start with you David tonight who are you looking at in the first round market. First off I'm really surprised the amount of money that the audience less on the table they left 1300 on the table there which I think is a record for the most that left so definitely a really intriguing way to round out the lineup for them there and leave so much money on the table certainly going to be very different 10th first round leaders I want to take a punt on some guys that I don't necessarily like in the week long tournament markets but have the chance to get spiking and come out there with one round which is not the first round leaders all about I'm certainly seen the morning has been a lot calmer higher winds in the afternoon so you can really like honing your first round leader pool to those morning tea times and hopefully find some decent values so we talked about Russell Henley on the show I like them at 55 to 1 for the first round leader I trust him a little bit more to come out firing in that first round on a course that should really suit a little more so than his ability to actually finish the event. Tom Kim I think it's very interesting it's 70 to 1 again we can see him spike with one very very hot round I think that's a great number for him there. He's been on the right likewise at 80 to 1 billy hoe we've mentioned pretty steadily on the show shout out to Zach who was going to be a hard time for mentioning him and silent assassin as well for the fact I referenced them stealing the big three times which is now four times you guys still stole Billy Porter from me and I'll never forgive you. And then Christian bazade and how to 100 to 1 as I said in that 20 20 players temperature that wasn't in the first round bazade and how it actually finished it actually had a seven under behind just Metzuyama so I'm really sneaky there in terms of the fact that he's he's had that pop round gets a morning tea time and 100 Ron is a great number for him for the first round later. I love it. I love it. All right. Thanks. How about you who you looking at the first round in your market. I'm going to double down on a lot of what David just talked about I have 55 to one on Russell Henry I have 55 to one on see who Kim and then there and right play at 80 to one there was one thing that my model picked up so I ran whole by whole data for it. And there there were a couple golfers that were above him in this area but when I simulated the results for it. Aaron Rye had seven holes were essentially projected him to be a top 25 score in this field. He didn't have anything that landed outside of the top 100 in that area with it. He has the potential for one day to get very, very hot. You kind of see that which is some of the course breakdown with the simulation that I ran for it so I think I need a one he's a very interesting play to consider. I love it. I love it. I'm coming to you guys this week with a couple of home run plays we're going to go deep down the board couple hundred fifty to one maybe that far down. I'm going to start with Justin lower at a hundred fifty to one. Obviously you know this is not a high confidence but it's a hundred to one play I think he actually has a chance to be a first one he's been striking the ball really well. He can make some putts and a volatile course like this I think he can you know one day blow up and fall out of contention but I think he can put together one really solid day for 151 shot to take. Also like Carson young at a hundred and thirty to one for whom is a similar profile. He's a guy who can strike the ball well obviously has some other flaws. Not someone even targeting for week long but I think for one day when you want to reach for a long shot that can be a first round leader play I think those two guys have some viability if you're looking for long shots. In terms of more reasonable realistic plays that I like I'm going to go with my draft pick. Let me go bare I think he could be a first round leader get a hot day early on at forty five to one. And my last play that hasn't been mentioned on the show at all. I'll throw other he's not in great form but he does send a pop especially in round one that determines like this it's Tommy Fleetwood at fifty to one. That's a wrap on the first round leader side don't forget. Stephen will be releasing his ownership article tomorrow. It is one of the best ownership articles you'll find it is going to be critical this week in understanding how to play DFS and understanding where you want to make your targets and how to get different so keep a lookout for that. Also get into discord if you're not a member sign up now getting to win daily within discord before the tournament starts weather updates if there's a weather edge you'll see that there. You'll see more outbreak plays from the team if you want to make them and many other updates that you might be able to find so follow along get in cash and punch some winning tickets with us this week. And of course follow along on Twitter as we post these lines put your votes and we think to the win we are crowning the winner next week. Am I forgetting anything else? I will say I saw people talking earlier in the show about this black and pink combination that I have going on. I am very proud of this skins on the hat. Sean Michaels on the shirt. Very classy there if I do say so myself. Someone to the heartbreak it. Listen, not only is it class that's how you show up for an elevated event right you don't just you don't go to WrestleMania in your traditional gear you go to the elevated events wearing elevated gear it's obviously Spencer is showing us the way so thank you. You come in with the big Papa song Sean Michaels gear I mean we do things at a higher level than most people out there so there's a lot that goes into this beyond just the pics. I love it. Of course as always audience you make this show we couldn't be do this without you guys you are what makes this work so any suggestions anything else you guys are looking for from us throwing the chat will do our best to be able to accommodate everyone's request. I think that's actually a fortunate right in case unless I forgot. Spence. [BLANK_AUDIO]
