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We're in the latest episode of Five on the Floor in the Five Reasons Sports. Now, we're thanks to you on your favorite podcast app, Google Podcasts. It's going away soon, so if you're on Android, we recommend that you check out Spotify or the Five Reasons YouTube channel. Also, of course, Apple Podcasts, and make sure that you sign up for off the floor. That's our new Discord, $2.99 per month. Why should you sign up for this? Because it's just Heat, NBA, and things that Heat and NBA fans want to talk about. So get away from the clutter of Twitter, $2.99 per month. Plus, you can tag the four of us on there. We might respond to you from time to time. Just don't do too often. Check out the new Off the Floor. Again, link in the description right here on YouTube on the podcast feed and pinned to the top of the Five Reasons Twitter page. Also, check out the great sponsors, the Five Reasons Sports Network. That includes prize picks. Yes, you can still play prize picks in 31 states. Florida is not currently one of them. We expect it to come back at some point, but we know a lot of Heat fans are outside the state of Florida. So sign up using the Code 5 F-I-V-E. You can still use it and you get your initial deposit matched up to $100. Prize picks.com or the Google Play Store or the Apple App Store. Just look for prize picks. And now, today's episode. [MUSIC] Welcome to Five on the Floor, a daily insider show on the Miami Heat and the NBA featuring Ethan Skolnick, Greg Sylvander and Alex Toledo, plus others from the Five Reasons Sports Network. Hi, welcome back to Five on the Floor here today's floor plan on Ethan Skolnick. You can follow me on Ethan, Jason Skolnick and in Five Reasons Sports. I got Alex Toledo. You can follow him at Tropical Blanket. And today we're going to talk about a couple of things and I think they're related. The Miami Heat, don't be good teams. I talked about that today on the latest episode of Five Guys. That's on the podcast feed. Alex Donno and I, that's a twice weekly show that we're doing mid days on the YouTube channel. We got into this with Brady, who actually joined us about halfway through. Alex is trying to get a Five Guys. This Alex Toledo, not Donno, although probably Donno too, is trying to get a Five Guys sponsorship on this. So if anybody for Five Guys is listening, you can reach out to me by DM so that Alex can eat some sloppy burgers. But anyway, beyond that. The Heat haven't beaten and really anybody with significance this year. I mean, we, Donno and I went through it and they're essentially the Dolphins. I mean, the Dolphins, that was the knock against them the entire year that couldn't beat good teams. And Miami is over against Denver. OKC, Minnesota, Boston, the Clippers. OK. They've got basically two wins against teams that are currently in contending tight positions. And that's, they've got one win against Milwaukee. They're one and two and they're one and one against Cleveland. And when you don't beat the good teams, people start to look at your best player because he has to elevate against those teams if you're going to win. You're not going to beat teams with players like, you know, again, it's not positional because it's bam that has to deal with your kids. But teams with a guy like Yoakich, even the loss to Dallas recently, Luca, Shay, etc. You're not going to beat those teams unless your best player plays at a level that's somewhat close to that best way that best player plays. And you're also going to struggle to beat them if your best player is not able to operate the way that he typically operates. And so the second part of this episode, we're going to get into what is clearly a shift from the officials since the all-star break and it's not just Jimmy Butler related. Others have comment on this, Zach Lowe, and we talked about this last night and then Brady asked the question of Spolstra after the game about the free throws and the fact that Jimmy's not getting to the line as much since the break. And then Brady also unleashed this stat. This year in wins, Jimmy Butler averages 10 free throw attempts per game. It lost as he averages six. What do I always say incorrectly, Alex correlation is not causation or whatever. Did I get it right this time? But there seems to be some. So let me just give you some numbers, Alex, and then I want you to get into the basketball part so this and kind of what's happening. Okay, went through some splits against Boston this year, two games, Jimmy Butler's averaging 15.5 points for rebounds, three assists, shooting 45% from the floor. Again, Cleveland, two games, averaging 13 points, shooting, excuse me, 29% from the floor. Okay, against Denver, two games. He is averaging 18 points shooting, I'm sorry, 42, I'm sorry, 40, 39% from the floor. Against the Clippers he's averaging 21 right around his average was slightly below that's one game actually so it's not averaging that's what he that's what he got in the one game. 42% from the floor. Against Milwaukee. He missed two of the games, right, but in the one game he played, he scored 13, he shot 36% from the floor. Against Oklahoma City. In one game, he's did score 20 shot 50% from the floor. He played well against Phoenix. Okay, in one game, he scored 26 on 58% from the floor. Another of the better teams in the league Sacramento. He scored 31 in the one game he did play he didn't play in the other game the heat one without him. Okay, so going through some of those and then Dallas I'm sorry the loss in Dallas not a great team but a team that's, you know, semi contention in the Western Conference. He scored 14 in the one game shooting 50% from the floor. Am I missing somebody I'm sorry Minnesota. One game scored 15 42% from the floor scored 18 in both games against the pelicans. Correct. That's right. Well, no, no, the pelicans this year. He I'm sorry the one game you scored 23 that was the game he got kicked out right. He got 58% from the floor. So I think I don't know if that we're looking at the same chart. But that was against the nicks. He's average 26. Okay. Shooting 53% before. But anyway, the point is the better teams in the league. Okay, see, he was okay. All right. Against Boston averaging 15 and a half. Okay, the one game against Cleveland he's two games against Cleveland he's averaging 13 on 30% shooting. I mean he's Milwaukee the one game 13 on 36% shooting Denver we've talked about the most. I mean he's average 18 never turned it on last night. 39% from the floor. I mean he's against the good teams he doesn't play well this year. So I mean he's he's playing like a role player against these teams on on at best medium of fit. I mean not even if not a lead efficiency he's not it's not even it is he's not close to his average efficiency. So some of this is you play against better teams, naturally your average is going to be down your efficiency is going to be down if they tend to be good defensive teams, but not to this degree right like this seems extreme. It does it does. I mean it's it's been a trend all season and it's you really can't like play defense against this right like you can you can have faith. And be like I've seen him play at an otherworldly level against great teams before when it matters and basically that's the entire argument because what's what's occurred this season other than you know the correction you made there about the pelicans game that's the one just good game by the numbers that he's had right and usually with Jimmy Butler sometimes it is in the numbers right like you know I think Brady said it the other day like rebounds and steals are down. When the free throw attempts are down like you're talking about like these are all the indicators that he's not playing at the same level it's not you know too hard to see that. And I think you know you can't blanket them all under the same thing as they're all different teams different schemes and all that but I think as of late. And we've talked about this. It's become evident that what you do against the heat is take away the paint. And once you do that they are going to you know they're going to struggle like the offense is already not great but when you're taking away what was their bread and butter we've I mean we've. I personally remember this point home since last season and all throughout this season that they have a lot of mid-range in their diet most of it is short mid-range and that's kind of their bread and butter. So it's hard to fault the most times for being I mean taking shots there because they're pretty good at it they're not elite at it. They take it at a really high level and make it at a decent rate. But now it's like you take that away and teams are betting that you're not going to outshoot them and I think it's a good bet. I think it's a good bet. And right now it's obviously even better bet because they're missing hero and they're missing Kevin Love. So you can really like help off of a lot of guys in their rotation outside of Duncan Robinson. And I think that's part of what's happening as of late. But as far as Jimmy Butler throughout the entire season it's been this way versus the good teams as you're laying out. So all of it comes down to like hoping that he's going to be back to normal in the playoffs or at least you know 85 90% of what he was last season because replicating what he did before he got hurt is going to be really tough. So I'm not going to expect that but we're not even talking about him playing to his averages here. Right much much less stepping up to another level. So it's almost like I kind of want to see it soon and it's going to be tough because you know most of the games you have left are against pretty easy teams that you've got to two games in Detroit back to back coming up. And that's one of the reasons I want to do this Alex because I look we looked at the schedule and we did this with Brady today on the show with Donna. The schedule they don't really have chances for you know so to make it up right now I mean in some ways it's a good thing they don't play a lot of elite teams the rest of the way I mean Denver was one of the last ones they play they got Philadelphia out and beat the play the Knicks they've got a game against Cleveland that but they don't play a lot of elite teams but the same time they were like no measuring stick games at this point like I don't know what it proves for Jimmy to go off against Detroit like I you know I'm saying and I know the Pistons are playing better and after losing to Washington like I should nothing should be taken for granted. But the where we're at with this is it's exactly what you said like you don't want to paint it with that broader brush I don't either. But it's almost like the circumstances don't even matter he's just not good against good teams this year like they're all we're talking about all kinds of different defenses. All kinds of different circumstances with who's around him. And I mean again like you're talking about going again look I mean I'm Jimmy Butler stand for what he's done here in Miami but some of this is just he's not getting up for these games I think like he should be like everybody's like there's that whole thing okay. Well they play on this team Jimmy's going to be up for it. I don't know the first Boston game he was asleep. You know he's averaging 15.5 in the two games. And you know I mentioned you know the Dallas game I mean he took 12 shots against Dallas two free throw attempts on the road. I mean that was a national TV game. The OKC game again he was pretty good I don't think it was his fault in that game but the majority of these like the Minnesota game he hasn't played well against the wolves since he left there. He has played. And you know Clippers he was eight of 19. The Denver games he's 13 of 33 like Alex Denver like I think we all get it with Denver right like the I mean they just they have unique. I don't want to talk about that. Yeah right exactly like Aaron Gordon is like you were to like design the player to give Jimmy the most trouble. It's a guy like Aaron Gordon has the athleticism but it's also physically strong right. Right. Right. So that's a bad matchup for him. And you know if the heat play them again it's a good thing because it means they've made another run to the finals and then they'll get swept. But I just I just as as someone who's followed the heat for a very long time but doesn't make decisions for them to say we can play it came out of the last night of the game. Well I was waiting to go in the locker room and said we can play them a hundred times we'll lose 99. I think the one game they'd win was the game two in the finals last year. I look at so Denver's unique but some of these other teams like there I mean Dallas doesn't have anything special to keep him from getting to the line or being effective. It doesn't seem like it. Well okay so a lot of it is scheme and I get it but then all right then then what is it that he can do about it like the first thing is before any of this starts Alex. He has to be engaged like if he's not engaged none of this matters and I have said that all season like me when you know in the first five minutes. If he's come to play or not if he hasn't come to play they don't have a chance against these teams. But then the question is if he comes to play like say when he came to play in the playoffs against LeBron in the finals okay like he went toe to toe with LeBron they threw all kinds of different things to them. He lost rockets he lost them he kept coming right we see it against Boston Milwaukee. I don't I don't see that this year I just I just don't like I know the overall numbers are fine. But when you start to dig into them, they don't look right I mean here's who he's averaging most points against this year okay. He got the one game against Sacramento 31 34 and a half against India and in the two games they don't defend at all right. You get 29. Correct 29 against Brooklyn. He's averaging in three games he's averaging 29 against Brooklyn they're not going to see them in the playoffs he's shooting 58% against Brooklyn. It doesn't I mean ultimately in the grand scheme of things it's not going to matter. He's he's averaging some of his other better numbers Atlanta. One game against Atlanta he had 25 on he shot 80% for the floor on 10 attempts he had 10 free throw attempts. So against these I mean Detroit they're playing averaging 22.5 9.56 assists shooting 43% from the floor. He's got 21 free throw attempts in the two games against Detroit. But again they're not going to see DC Detroit beyond this weekend right so I don't I mean I don't know what Orlando he's averaging under 20 in the two games although he has shot the ball well 58%. I guess the overall point is the teams that are going to have to go through it again anywhere. It's not happening in Vienna. Let's get right like they need to buy or something right exactly. Exactly I mean make me feel better about this because this whole thing like Jimmy's going to turn up I'm like yes he needs to turn up but I mean. I can't turn up against the teams that are good. No you're 100% right it is it's funny you say make me feel better about about this because the entire time we've been doing this for the past five, seven minutes or so. What's been going through my mind is more of the glass half empty perspective or it's like. Does it man I'm going to hate to say this because I'm very superstitious I'm not trying to jinx anything. What we're talking about sounds a lot like the beginning of a superstar players decline. I'm not saying it's a full decline it's like dramatic. We it's what we're talking about it's he can still do it often. But when you start seeing it less and less and less versus the best teams and it's like. Well when is this going to turn around and I'm not saying. I'm there yet but like these symptoms that we're talking about I kind of there now again going back to the first point and you know he's going to turn up he's going to turn up with the playoffs having faith that that's what's going to happen. I'm still there, but only because we've seen him do it before right if this was another player who doesn't have the same circumstances and resume the playoff resume that Jimmy has had during this era. I probably wouldn't be saying that like it's it's kind of what happened with Duane too and I'm not saying he he's at like where Duane was you know what I mean but it's just like. It's it's a gradual decline I was I was as you're talking I'm thinking Duane I'm thinking Duane but here's the difference okay. And I want to get to this after the break. But when we started to see it with Duane. The number six was there to pick it up. Number one was there to pick it up. And they don't have that. And then we saw Duane come back and have to take more of that role on the 1516 team after his body started to recover a little bit. And he could do it sometimes and he did do it in some of the best teams, but this is what happens and so I'm going to ask this question and we'll get to it before we close after the break. Who is supposed to pick up the slack here. If this magical turnaround where all of a sudden Jimmy is playoff Jimmy against elite defenses in the playoffs, if that doesn't happen, and we'll get into the person who I think they thought was going to do it, but he doesn't play. 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What's the first thing you do if you had an extra hour in your day, go for a run, take a nap, maybe check the stats of the latest Miami heat game. I've got a better idea. A lot of us spend our lives wishing we had more time. The question is time for what? If time was unlimited, how would you use it? The best way to squeeze that special thing into your schedule is to know what's important to you and make it a priority. Therapy can help you find what matters to you so you can do more of it. I've benefited from therapy. I went through some life changes, major life events, had some difficulties, wasn't a believer in therapy, but it helped me and it can help you also. So if you're thinking of starting therapy, give BetterHelp a try. It's entirely online, designed to be convenient, flexible, and suited to your schedule. Just fill out a brief questionnaire to get matched with a licensed therapist and switch therapists any time for no additional charge. So learn to make time for what makes you happy with BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com/ MiamiHeat today to get 10% off your first month. Again, that's BetterHelpHELP.com/ MiamiHeat. What's so special about Hero Bread's soft, fluffy, and delicious breads, buns, and tortillas? These ultra low net carb baked goods contain zero sugar, fewer calories, and more protein than the leading brands, and are high in fire at a sport gut health. Shop now at Hero.co. So wasn't this part of what was supposed to happen this year, though? Like, I feel like the Heat kind of saw this coming a little bit. Like, we saw Jimmy, I mean, last year, okay, he stepped on, you know, he stepped on a foot, right? Or whatever, we can talk, well, not foot. I'm sorry. Maybe it wasn't that. Josh Hart, I don't want to get you too upset. There was a decline, obviously, in the playoffs after that. But Jimmy kind of, he trudged through it. They got to the finals, so they ran into Denver, and whether it was injury-based, or what we talked about earlier in the show, the nuggets proposing problems for him, he wasn't quite the same player, whatever. But we talked all offseason. They got to get Jimmy help. They got to get Jimmy help, right? So obviously there was the damn flirtation. We talked about Beal, others, et cetera. Ultimately, Hero comes back to camp, right? Bam's still here. They've added, in my view, more depth. They have more depth than they had last year by far. They've added Rosier at the deadline. They've added Hakez, who does a lot of Jimmy-like things. But I'm going to come back to it. I think the plan was, for Tyler and Bam, to take more of this scoring burden off him, so that teams A would pay for the way that they started to guard Jimmy, and also so that Jimmy could be carried a little instead of having to carry all the time. Well, Bam, I think we've seen. We saw great flurists from him last night. He still does some terrific things. I don't think he can be counted on as a primary scorer. I think we've all sort of agreed upon that at this point. And you and I, we both got sick of watching Tyler and Bam try to carry when Jimmy was out. And Tyler's not even available to carry anything at this point. He's not making this trip. He may make it at some point during it. I heard there's a possibility, but I wouldn't count on it. This is a four game trip. So, I mean, at most, Tyler's going to play the last 10 games in this regular season. Maybe he's going to be under 50 games for the year. And we don't know whether he's going to start and all the rest of this. How do they make under the circumstances? Wasn't supposed to be Tyler and how do they make up for this? Yeah, so this is a loaded question and you're 100% right that that was the plan with Tyler and Bam. And we saw that like we saw it come to fruition for, you know, the good, you know, good first half of the season. And, you know, I think right up until like February or so and it was when Jimmy finally started to kind of ramp it up a bit before this latest little slump he's been having. And I think we saw it to mix results and we've spoken about this before, but I feel like this. The way that this season has played out has almost been like an experiment of sorts. And there's like different stages to it because it's like the first before the experiment started like the plan was. Damn. And they were going to, you know, empty their cupboard I mean not empty right like because they weren't going to give up everything but they were going to mostly empty their cupboard because they realized that they needed somebody else there to take the load off. And now, you know, the experiment to start the season before some of these moves were made right was Tyler and Bam are going to take on higher usage and more responsibility. And like I said, mixed results has been great, you know, and I think we've seen this type of stuff from Spope before when he tries to throw you know put guys in places that are kind of outside their comfort zone so that they can become better players, even though they're probably not going to be good at it in the short term. And it's basically a bet that this is going to make them better over the long run and will help in playoff situations when you're, you know, having to react to different coverages. And I think the theory is that you get them doing this now and then when you're back in the playoffs, you don't have to rely on Jimmy to be Superman every single possession. The problem is it's so much easier said than done right because to keep all the guys that they need in rhythm is really tough. And I do still believe in some of it, by the way, because they did add Terry Rosier, and that's a really nice addition right but the idea was that you added him to what you had and now it's he's kind of replaced Tyler since he's out right so you're missing that extra juice and not only that when they were playing together, you know, we obviously didn't see too much of it but I think a lot of people feel this way. They're kind of not getting in each other's way but you're getting diminishing returns at some point because both of them are not taking on a huge usage and it's like, maybe you have to play around with it a little bit whenever he comes back and whatever that's a different conversation. But what I'm trying to say is basically the theory is, you know, you have all these guys now with Terry, you know, with ideally a Tyler who's healthy for the playoffs, with Jaime and what he can give you, you have more guys who can create their own shot. And now I think the question is, can you fit it all together in a way that is cohesive and I think that is what the rest of the season is about and of course what the playoffs is going to be about because like you said they're deeper. I think if you go one by one like the guys they lost last season to the guys they lost this season you probably think they're better. No, no shade whatsoever to the guys that aren't here anymore. But, you know, it's, as of right now it's all theoretical and that's the problem because you want to see how it looks when Jimmy is back to being the number one in usage and responsibility and everybody else just kind of fits in around him. But we haven't really seen that yet you know what I mean so it's all like hoping that this hypothesis of yours is gonna is gonna turn out how you want, because it's not like last year where it's like okay boom Jimmy 30% usage. Everybody else spot up and move around and screen. It's a little bit more complicated. No yeah it was uncomplicated last year and that's why when you talk to everybody talks about Tyler's like okay they could have used him against Denver we haven't seen Tyler against Denver basically in two years. We were also hammering for Jimmy to not have to keep doing this as the ages. So this is true. Correct. And, and, and, but here's the problem. He has paced himself this season, but the guys who are supposed to pick up the slide. I mean either been there right haven't been there, or haven't done it. And now they're in a point where they have to figure things out at the very end I'll just I'll close with this okay. Everything we're doing is based on the hope of what we saw last postseason. And I just don't know that you know I'm coming more and more around to the fact that you know maybe this is more like 2021 and I hate to say that because it was a lot of circumstances that season it was the, it was the short break. I don't think that you know Jimmy's going to be out scored by what's the equivalent of Bryn Forbes in the first round. But I don't know it just doesn't it doesn't seem like the gear is there. You know Jimmy PCs and leading up to that, that I know where it's amazing how you make me feel even worse because we've seen it even less this year. I, the overall numbers are fine. And it's I'm not saying he's that pads against bad teams. It's not what I'm getting at. It's just that he clearly can play his game against bad teams. He can hunt the mismatch. There's only so much they can scheme against him, because they do one thing they're going to leave something else wide open and even though the heater challenged offensively. They'll figure enough out combined with their defense, but against the good teams teams are basically saying like we're going to take Jimmy away and try to force these other guys to beat them. And it doesn't seem like Jimmy is pushing the envelope as much as he used to. And now you're getting to this other thing where Jimmy is not a foul baiter, like harden or others. But he, that's, that's different than saying he does rely on free throw some he does like just in the natural course of his physical game exactly. And that's why their record is better. I do think correlation is causation in that circumstance, because when he gets to the line, it slows the game down, which is what the heat wants. Okay, allows them to collect themselves set up their defense. It gets other teams in foul trouble. It gets other teams on the penalty. And it's critical for him to do that. And now that BAM is on this free throw shooting slump, it's even more necessary for Jimmy to do this. All right, we got to go to a playback. So it's just funny. It's like hitting me now. It's come full circle that like the way that Jimmy is now like we're seeing this struggle is almost like other teams holding up a mirror and doing what the heat do in a way, not exactly what the heat do, but where they're cutting off the paint, they're jamming the middle. And like I said before, like, not only are you taking away Jimmy's bread and butter, which is the free throw. I mean, the getting to the free throw line and scoring in that painted area. That's BAM's bread and butter too. Right. And then not only that, like, you know, BAM could still take these mitties, but a lot of them are, you know, not wide open anymore. And it's like these guys are not getting their bread and butter anymore when you're forcing them to kind of, you know, spray out to other guys. I feel like other teams are basically just saying, yeah, that's it right like we're doing what you do like we're going to make you we're going to scramble and make you go to somebody else and you're not going to get nothing easy down there. And now it's just about how do you adjust. Well, the biggest adjustment that they've got to make some of it is scheme. Some of it is tactics and some of it is just if you're paying a guy mid 40s in millions. And he's declared world C in June. He has to figure out a way to get him to June. That's, I mean, this ultimately, and I know he thinks it's unfair. They haven't given him another true offensive star. I get all of that. But the numbers and the numbers right now. And you need him to be the guy who went toe to goes toe to toe with Tatum goes toe to toe with LeBron goes toe. And this so far this year, there's very few games where they've gone against another star and you said, Jimmy, I'll play that guy tonight. And I'm talking about stars on the good teams and that that ultimately it didn't happen with Mitchell in Miami. Ultimately, that that needs to change. All right. For Alex. Again, follow me tropical blanket, Ethan J. Skolnik five reason sports thanks to our sponsors shop tub culture comm use that code five same code of prize picks. We make it easier for you get that bonus match jump to $100. If you're based outside the state of Florida and call your Congress with one don't call your Congress in the state of Florida. They're useless. All right. Have a good one everybody. Thank you for listening to the five on the floor on the fibers and sports network. After all, someone needs to listen to my dad. What's so special about hero bread soft fluffy and delicious breads buns and tortillas? These ultra low net card baked goods contain zero sugar, fewer calories and more protein than the leading brands and our high end fiber to support gut health. Stop now at hero dot co we fly Southwest. 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