The Duran Podcast
Macron's shambolic interview, cowers to Putin's warning
All right, Alexander, let's talk about Macron's interview. I was under the impression that it was going to be a speech, but I was wrong. It was actually an interview in about a 30-minute interview with French media and French television. What were your thoughts? I saw it as a train wreck, and I wonder who is consulting Macron to actually come out and do these things. That kind of left me thinking, who's consulting him and saying, "This is a good idea for you to come out and give a speech or an interview, whatever, and talk about Russia and Ukraine." It was not a good look. It was very sad, pathetic, but in a way, also entertaining 30 minutes, I have to admit it because it was so out there anyway. Those are my initial thoughts. I think I'm right about my assessment of the interview, my view on it, but what were your thoughts? I think train wreck is an understatement. I think it was an absolute complete and total shambles. Now, I should say that all the indications that I'd seen over the previous couple of days were that we were going to get a formal address by Macron yesterday to the French people. I was expecting to have him on television, addressing the nation from the Alite Palace, the way that De Gaulle used to do, and the way in which Macron has done himself in the past, and the way that French presidents do. And all the expectations were, at least that was my expectation, that he was going to announce some kind of deployment of French troops to Ukraine. I mean, everything that he'd been doing over the previous two weeks seemed to be leading up to that decision. And then instead of that, we got this shambolic press conference, and I mean, it really to me looked absolutely shambolic. And it made no coherence sense, because on the one hand, he said, you know, we can't let Putin win, it would be an absolute end of Europe as we know it, the end of France as we know it would be an apocalyptic thing. At the same time, he said that, you know, he's not made a decision to send French troops, he's not prepared to rule it out, but he's not at the moment ruling it in France will never take any offensive action France is a force for peace. I mean, that is a bizarre statement, if you think about it, because deploying troops to Ukraine would be an offensive action, I mean, it would be sending troops into a war theatre. You can package it, rationalize it in all sorts of ways, but for France, for the French people, it would be an offensive action, but he's a France will never do that be a force of peace. He seemed to suggest that France would not do this on its own, which is unsurprising. And last but not least, he then blurted out, I mean, that was how it looked to me, this extraordinary admission, the French military industries cannot keep up with the Russians. In the end, this speech, there wasn't a speech, this press conference, far from conveying strength, either of purpose or of means. To me, I mean, at the end it up indicating confusion and weakness, France unable to act deterred by the Russians, obviously, and unable to compete with the Russians, it conveyed the opposite impression to the one that I think Macron had initially intended. And I'm going to make a suggestion, I don't know exactly what happened, but I think that Macron, who has apparently been thinking about sending French troops to Ukraine for a long time. Apparently, he first floated this subject privately with French military officials back in June last year, June last year being, of course, the time when it was becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine's offensive was failing. So, you know, he could see that it was failing, so he said we might need to send in French troops someday. Anyway, he'd finally screwed himself up and decided that he was going to announce it. And then I think a lot of things happened, he found that his European allies, the Germans and the British were not keen to put it mildly. He also discovered that the Americans were not prepared to assist. He then had this really actually terrifying interview from Putin on the previous day, in which Putin said, look, if French soldiers, European soldiers, NATO soldiers enter Ukraine, we have one word for them. They were invaders, that was extraordinarily strong language in itself. He made it absolutely crystal clear that the Russians would treat them as combatants, whatever the role they serve, whatever things they do in Ukraine. They are a target for the Russian military, and Putin took Macron's words about France and the West having no red lines with Russia, and threw them back and said if they have no red lines with us, then we have no red lines with them, which opens up the whole, you know, way towards escalation, unlimited escalation, and then Putin spoke a lot about nuclear weapons. I mean, you know, this is a carefully arranged interview with Sergei Kecilioff, reminding, I mean, he said, you know, looking to use nuclear weapons, this is not my intention. But, you know, we find ourselves in an existential situation, those weapons are not just there, you know, to be kept on the shelf, they're there to be used. So he talked about that, he pointedly reminded the West that the West is engaging in a geo-strategic play in Ukraine to improve his tactical position. Whereas for Russia, it is a life and death issue, so that the Russians have an entirely different level of willpower about Ukraine and motivation about Ukraine. And he basically made it clear that if Western troops enter Ukraine, you know, the Russians will attack them, and given that if French troops or Baltic troops were sent to Ukraine, that is what the Russians would do. That puts an impossible position on the French, do they go in and get smashed, because as Macron admitted their military industries are not up to the Russians, or do they turn to the Americans to bail them out? And I think the Americans have probably been listening also to what Putin has been saying, and they don't want to have to rush to Ukraine to rescue the Ukrainians, or to the French rather, in what would be, in effect, a prelude to World War III. And I suspect that over the course of yesterday, we've probably got all kinds of phone calls from Washington, probably from the Pentagon, to France. Again, I'm guessing that these are reasonable, informed guesses, telling Macron for heaven's sake back off. We, you don't have a set, we're not at your back on this one. If you go there, by yourself, you're on your own. So Macron had to change course. The idea of the presidential address was abandoned. We got this chaotic news conference, and with all kinds of brave words, basically he retreated with his tail between his legs. That is my take on what happened yesterday, no doubt over the next couple of days we'll be getting a bit more news about what happened. And notice also how the media in the West is playing down this affair, including in France, which suggests to me that this has been a very embarrassing episode altogether. Typical Macron, we sent it on our live stream yesterday, typical Macron, he says one thing today does another tomorrow. The whole interview press conference thing was just flip flop wishy washy, making no sense about anything. Russia is an adversary, but not an enemy. Russia must not win, it cannot win, it will not win. There are no red lines, nothing is off the table, but we're not going to go first. We'll wait for someone else to go into Russia, but if Russia, what an admission from Macron, if Russia continues to win, an admission that Russia's winning, then we're going to send troops into Odessa. But this is all about strategic ambiguity, that's what political wrote. Macron's main goal in this press conference was to convince the French people of his strategy of strategic ambiguity. And there's actually people that are actually buying it, it's like the pro Ukraine like commentary, they're like what a brilliant 30 minutes of Macron displaying strategic ambiguity, that you have Radislav Sikorsky of Poland saying that Macron's plan of strategic ambiguity is brilliant, it's a master stroke. And he's giving this interview saying if Russia continues to win, we'll go to Odessa, we'll put some troops in Odessa. I was just like what is this guy talking about, man, it was what a trade recommend, anyway, your thoughts, strategic ambiguity, that's what they're going with. Strategic ambiguity, don't admit that it was a humiliation, and a display of catastrophic weakness, which is what it was, pretend that it was all some cunning plan to keep the Russians confused. And all I can say about that is just go to Putin's interview with Kislyak the previous day, he doesn't look at all confused there, he looks absolutely tough and resolute and is incredibly clear, if the French, or anyone else goes into Ukraine, the Russians will attack them, the Russians will have no hesitation attacking them, it's clearly set out, it's straightforward, there's absolutely no doubt, certainly no strategic ambiguity, or anything like that from the Russian side. I mean, just compare the two interviews, or rather press conference and the interview, and you will see the difference, it was an absolute complete total train wreck, and to be frank, after this, I don't myself think, I think is much less likely now that Western troops are going to enter Ukraine. By the way, if I can go to Putin's interview, because the interview was actually extremely interesting, covered many topics, it discussed Macron's personality and the fact that he seems to be having a busy fit over the fact that the French have been booted out, much of West Africa and all of that. But there are other things that Putin said that were really very interesting indeed, and it's now clear that the Russians are now indeed getting approaches from the United States to freeze the conflict, he all but confirmed it, he said that all kinds of people are coming along with proposals to do that, and he was scathing about this, he said, we're not going to freeze the conflict just because you're running out of ammunition don't take us for fools, and he also said that he didn't trust anybody, he actually used straightforwardly those words, slightly open about who he didn't trust, but he was quite clear that he didn't trust the West at all He also said that the people who are making these proposals for a freeze, these sort of more intelligent Western leaders who are making these kind of proposals, and I wonder who they are by the way, they are actually more dangerous than the straightforward near-contypes who want to just continue the war, because they are on the evidence of what's happened in the past, they're trying to lure the Russians into another minsk-too-type trick, you know, where they there's what looks like peace and a settlement, and in reality all it is is another attempt by time to rearm the Ukraine and to start the war all over again, I mean the fact that he used the word "yua" was in itself, you know, significant, and I have to say, you know, he didn't close the door on negotiations entirely But the way he spoke about the whole topic of negotiations makes me absolutely clear that the West is going to find it extremely difficult to satisfy him or the other people in Moscow, before any conceivable deal is done now This long history of bad face, going all the way back to the promises not to extend NATO east, which by the way Putin brought up, has now had its effect, and the Russians just don't trust the West at all, and frankly, after reading what Putin said and listening to the interview I just don't think negotiations are likely at any time now Putin was clear in his phrasing of whether he's open to negotiations, he said we're open to negotiations but we're not going to negotiate just because the other side is running out of ammo I mean that says it all right there, we're open to negotiate, but just because you guys are losing, we're not going to be duped like we were duped in Minsk I and Minsk II Yeah, Macron, he said two very interesting things which showcase not only Macron, but I believe the entirety of Europe's delusion and fear Delusion in that Macron said that he's ready to negotiate, but not with Putin, I'm paraphrasing what he said, but that's what he said, we're open to negotiate, we're open to peace, but just not with this president And then he talked about Trump and he showcased I think Europe's fear where he said, I have been informed that Trump is not going to win in 2024 anyway And then on that is an incredible statement for Macron to be making, what are your thoughts on those two students? Now let's turn to the first one because again there's been a really interesting article today in the economist of all places which is very much near-consensual once more, and it's basically saying you know Russia isn't the enemy Putin is the enemy So you are back to the old old story, you want regime change in Moscow, and what they're trying to do, what they're trying to tell those who they think are the pro-Western faction in Moscow But we've all messed up a bit, get us out of our mess, get rid of this terrible man, do a deal with us, and then we can open up our doors to you, you can go back shopping in Harrods and selfridges in London and in all the nice stores in Paris Buy your houses there and we can go back to life as usual, we're giving up on all of these plans to break up your country and do any of these things But first of all you've got to negotiate and come to peace settlement with us on Ukraine, even you know it might be more advantageous to you than it might otherwise have been but you know we're prepared to do that You must get rid of Putin first because we can't negotiate with him, he's too irreconcilable to us now, he's too hostile, whilst he's there relations between the Western Russia will remain in the Ice Age Now the problem with that is that they're talking to what they think is a pro-Western community faction in Moscow, which I'm going to tell them straightforwardly, it doesn't exist It did exist some years back, Western actions have completely discredited it and events are now moving on very fast in Russia, Russia's changing very rapidly And this group, which were never as powerful as the West believed it was, this group was completely lost, whatever limited power and leverage it once had, so there is that plan, you see it in the Economist, you saw it in some articles But I remember you, if you remember we discussed it some months ago but the same thing was said by someone from the Council of Foreign Relations who was briefing Moscow Times on negotiations, and now we have it from Macron as well The only problem we have with you is Putin, get rid of Putin and we can go back to exactly how it was before, it's not happening, it is absolutely addressing state, it's dilution I mean in the past I think everyone knows who they might have been addressing, but today do you have any idea for any hints, I mean they must have some idea, the Economist or the permanent state, that there must be some people that they're thinking of, I mean can you They assume that the oligarchs are still open to this kind of thing, this has been the assumption they've been trying to make for the last 10 years, the apparently Merkel, when she first agreed to the sexual sanctions on Russia back in June 2014 was told by the BND, the German intelligence agency that the oligarchs would tell Putin, you know, that he either had to completely back down, or they'd arranged for him to go because the sanctions were so negative for them And of course it didn't happen, but they still cling on to this, they still believe that the oligarchs actually wield some degree of political power in Russia, they are absolutely delusional about this, I mean there are still oligarchs in Russia But even people like Pyotr Avon and Friedman, people like that, who were historically Deripaska, who were historically more sympathetic to good relations with the West, firstly they're much less powerful today than they were And secondly they've been antagonised also, they are much more likely to support Putin than they would have been 10 years ago, but that's all they have, that's all that the West has, they still hope against hope that despite the overwhelming support Putin is going to get in the elections Which are underway by the way, the presidential elections in Russia are underway now, they still think that there are people in Moscow who still want some kind of pro-Western orientation, and they're now gambling That these people will come to their rescue and get them out of the mess that they're in, so that's I think increasingly what they're saying to each other, keep going with the sanctions, go on harassing the oligarchs and the Russian middle class, they'll tire of Putin, they'll eventually get rid of Putin How they're going to get rid of Putin, never explain, they'll get rid of Putin for us and then we can do a deal, and of course the oligarchs, the assumption is that whatever deal it will be, it will be one that it will end up being in the West's favour It is, as you rightly said, entirely delusional, now about Donald Trump, I'm afraid it is not delusional at all, it is sinister because France is not obviously part of the Five Eyes, but it's absolutely a NATO state, it's closely integrated into the NATO structures That Macron is saying these things, it does make you wonder what information he's getting from the United States that needs him to think that and who's providing it, so I find that a most sinister development and comment coming from him And it does an awful lot actually about the situation in the US because I don't believe that Macron would have said this, even if Macron would have said something like this, unless he'd been given private assurances from someone that Donald Trump was not going to be voted It would not become president in November He said I was informed, I was informed that Trump's not going to win in 2025, so he said that's pretty much a direct quote I know, I know, I know, I know Someone told him As is it, I mean, someone told him to listen And over the point is that Macron can sometimes say things which, unless he's making it up, okay, we're making it up, but I don't think he is on this occasion And as I said, that I find sinister And it ought to be given more attention than it really is Yeah, the Trump camp, the Trump campaign should pay attention to that type of comment, absolutely It does showcase the fear that they have of Trump winning Yeah, that's obvious Right, I guess we'll leave it there, I'm trying to think if there's anything else that maybe you want to touch on, the existential comment that he made or I mean, do you think anyone's going to buy it at France, that this is an existential threat to France? I mean, actually, let's in fact talk a bit about the mood in France, the French people have not liked all these maneuvers at all, I saw an opinion polled in Le Monde, which came out after Macron started making all of these statements European Parliament elections coming, Le Pen's party has increased further, it's already substantial lead over Macron's party in those elections, which suggests that all this talk about sending French troops to Ukraine has gone down very badly It's the French public, which is what all the opinion polls suggest, by the way, and the French military, based on these reports we've seen from the which have been published by Marianne, the French newspaper, we now know that there were three studies of the Ukraine war done by the French military The French military look like they're solidly opposed to this idea as well, and I'm not a person with a deep knowledge of the French military, but everything that I've seen suggests that it would not be up to a deployment with large numbers of troops in Ukraine It might be able to send a brigade of troops to Ukraine, but that would be at the price of stripping the rest of the French army of much of its best equipment, and it could only be done with logistical support from the United States So this thing that Macron has come up with, it's exposed French weakness, Western weakness, and the fact that he's deeply out of touch with French opinion, I actually think this could turn out to be quite a big event over the course of this conflict What you could say is that Macron and some people in the West bluffed Putin, they said, "You've got to stop, you can't advance, if you do, we'll send our troops in, we might even supply tourist missiles to Ukraine, the Germans have now, the German parliament has again voted against doing that, and Schultz is strongly opposed "And what's happened is that Putin has called their bluff, Putin called specifically Macron's bluff, which he did brutally in that interview he gave to Kiseleov, which came out yesterday "And the Russians, in general, have told the West, shove off, stay out of Ukraine, and the West, a signal that that's what it's going to do, they're not going to send large numbers of troops, you know, under their flags and uniforms and things like that to intervene in Ukraine "Today, that looks much less likely" All right, we will enter there at the Doran.locals.com, we are on Rumble Odyssey Bitch U Telegram, RockFit and Twitter X, and go to the Doran Shop and pick up some limited edition St. Patrick's Day merch, take care [music]