The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Valspar Championship First-Round Leader picks! David's selections are now +70.45 units in profit for 2024. Find out his P/L for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here: https://windailysports.com/golf/deepdivegolf-2024-pl-tracker/ref/47/ EXCLUSIVE PROMO: Our BEST DEAL EVER was so popular, we have brought it back!!! Enter the promo code "DEEPDIVEDEAL" and receive an annual membership for just $250 (usual price $USD 499.99). JOIN here: https://windailysports.com/register/yearly/ref/47/?coupon=DEEPDIVEDEAL Remember that Win Daily Premium membership grants you access to golf but also ALL our sports coverage! From the NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA, Soccer, and more, we have experts in nearly every field you can imagine. Get full access to our proven winning golf betting tips and golf DFS plays. You can speak directly with the guys, receive expert 1-on-1 coaching for DFS plus betting advice, access our projections, lineup optimizer, premium articles, tools, & expert chat. This deal is for a LIMITED TIME ONLY so lock in TODAY! The PGA Draft Cast is the only show on YouTube where YOU the audience draft a six-golfer PGA DFS line-up alongside the experts! The format is a standard snake-style draft. Audience members nominate their favorite plays in the chat and the first golfer to be named a second time is the audience's pick. Follow Sia (@SiaNejad), David (@deepdivegolf), Joel (@DraftMasterFlex), and Spencer (@TeeOffSports) on Twitter. #Valspar ##ValsparChampionship #ValsparGolf #ValsparTips #ValsparChampionshipTips #ValsparPicks #ValsparChampionshipPicks #ValsparDFS #ValsparChampionshipDFS #ValsparBets #ValsparChampionshipBets #ValsparFRL #ValsparChampionshipFRL #Copperhead #CopperheadCourse #Innisbrook #PGADFS #FantasyGolf #GolfBetting #GolfBets #DFSGolf #GolfDFS #FRLBets #FRLPicks #FantasyGolfPicks #DraftKingsGolfPicks #DraftKings #FanDuel #PGAFantasyPicks #PGAPicksThisWeek #PGAPicks #GolfPicks #PGADraftKings #PGADraft #PGALiveDraft #PGATips #PGAPicks #PGABets #PGABetting #ThePlayers #TheMasters #ScottieScheffler #Scheffler #DPWT #DPWorldTour #LIVGolf #LIVPGA
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Valspar Championship PGA Picks, Props, & First Round Leaders | PGA DraftCast
(upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - P-G-A nation. We are back. And I have good news for you this week. The good news is, Scotty Scheffler can't win again because he's not playing. So someone else has got a win, which is exciting because it was looking like, maybe no one else is gonna win again. It might just be Scotty every single week as well as he's playing. It has been impressive. Scotty is on an absolute tear, but still a fun field this week with the Valspar championship. I'm looking forward to breaking it down with you fellas tonight. Spence, how are you doing tonight? - I'm doing well, Joel. You know, it is nice that Scotty Scheffler is not in this field as you mentioned. I know David and I both had Brian Harmon last week. So it was very close, but no cigar sort of a finish there. I don't know, like it was kind of everybody else's tournament to win other than Scotty Scheffler. And Scheffler was the only one that put the pieces together on Sunday. Not that he was perfect. He missed some short putts himself, but Harmon started badly. Xander couldn't close the tournament. Wyndham Clark came on very strong at the end after being hit and missed throughout the entire day, but I think it's a unique DFS board that we have this week. Just with, once again, we're down to the $5,000 pay scale. That's a very interesting thing 'cause there's not very many $7,000 players that are in play for this tournament, but it excited to be back and it was a profitable player. So can never complain about that. - You're right. I think it's really interesting about how they're going about this season because it's so unique and it's less of the guys that are normally playing, how they're doing pricing is different. I'm a little surprised. There's a $5,000 range this week considering there's no Scotty or anything. I think you're, you know, the $5,000 range works when you're playing Rory and Scotty and they're priced up at 12K. (silence) - Oh no. - Here we go. The first WD of the PGA draft cast has come nice and early, three minutes into the broadcast and Joel was already withdrawn from the tournament. Speaking of WD's, my DFS team on the PGA draft cast was hamstrung because I unfortunately had the WD last week, which was Tom Kim, who was, I think, decent value under roamed and then pulled up with supposed illness after just eight holes, which is always really disappointing when a golfer decides to start a tournament, plays eight holes in them with draws because that obviously has a ton of repercussions, not just for DFS, but also for golf betting markets. As Ben's mentioned, awesome week for us over at Windeley Sports. We both had Brian Harmon. I had to deck him into Yama as well with them. Nice elections, he finished six, selected a 3d5 to one, and here's the thing with golf betting, right? Like you could have taken Scotty Sheffler as the winner in the players' championship. He was obviously gonna be decent enough value. He was a fair price in my market, so that six to one, well, they're about to win the tournament, but when you're looking at golf betting, value is really key. And Brian Harmon in second with his top five finish, got a full place at $17. Hideki Metzuyama finishing six, got us a full place at plus 800. So there's different ways to climb to the top of the mountain as it were, and both of those ended up actually being more profitable players for us than taking Scotty Sheffler for the win. In terms of the match ups, Exyn as well, round four match ups, particularly I went five or six on the selections. The adjustment's out on a huge multi at plus 4,000 for going six or six, unfortunately, Mark Hubbard did very well in the final round, but going against a very hot putter with Harris English Justness, that won by two shots for us. So solid tournament all round at the players. Make sure you're over at Windali. We're delivering this week on, week out. Steven, of course, the best ownership articles in the business. Dad bought some really hot showdown players as well, went four or four for caching in the showdown market. So it's a great time to join. And if you're looking in the description of this video, never been a better time to join. We've got our deep dive deal back again, exclusively in the lead up to the Masters, won't be here forever, but you're getting 50% off your annual membership. So it's only $249 for an entire year. That's not just golf, that's all sports. And it's the absolute best value that you can get for any sort of premium coverage from BFS to betting, NBA, NHL, everything that you need. NFL, college football, mind the significance being pretty much everything. - Windali's crushing it with everything over there. So yeah, definitely check it out if you're not already. And I think the Scotty Scheffler answer that you gave, it really just comes down to exposure of how much you actually have to get down to place that wager because I agree with you. I thought the going rates were fair, or at least in the range of being fair, you're probably a quarter of a point in one way or another there of what was proper, like anywhere between 5.75 to one, and like 6.25 to one, depending on how I ran it, was kind of the proper going rate. It was a very volatile TPC sawgrass course that we were getting last week. But as you kind of mentioned, David, with the match up place that you just discussed, like that's always gonna be the bread and butter. It's those match ups. It's the each way bets that you're able to talk about there in the outright market, it's the placement bets that come into play. There's a lot more that goes into the game than just hitting the winner, hitting the winner will give those really monumentally great weeks, but all those other things also help to increase the bankroll and raise that ROI for the year. - Absolutely, yeah, could not agree more with that. Hey, before we get into your course analysis, quick question here from Zach Jeffers, which is the same question I asked, which is, is this the Harlem Globetrotter? I didn't ask if it was the Harlem Globetrotter, but I was very intrigued to see what was on the cap this week. Can you describe the outfit for us, Vincent? - Yeah, so I'm in March Madness mode right now. I went to school at UNLV, so that's the hay red mascot there, of the Jerry Tarkanian shirt on. UNLV basketball is not what it used to be, unfortunately, and there's not a lot on the UNLV front. I mean, we're more of a football school now, shockingly, than we are a basketball school, so I'm gonna rip UNLV any time I can. It felt like a nice week to wear this, but it's all UNLV gear for me. - Well, I'm in New Zealand, so March Madness means absolutely nothing for me, but I do love to cover golf. I love the PGA Tour, and I love this golf course this week, in particular, the Copperhead course, Spence. Can you give us your course breakdown, please? - Yeah, I'll let you talk about the weather, David. That is definitely your wheelhouse there, and I'll just exclude that from the conversation that we're gonna have. You can dive into how the weather plays a factor, but I've always found Copperhead to be really interesting from a data outlook, 'cause you get these, I wanna call them correlated answers at the very top when you look at Sam Burns, Paul Casey going back to back, like there's that high-end success that comes into play, but really, when you look at this predictive nature, of course history, it ranks near the bottom on tour for rollover predictability. Maybe that comes down a little bit to the different iterations of this contest that we've gotten over the years. When it plays easy, it gets into that 1700 par sort of range. When it's most complicated, it can slip into that single digit range. I do think the weather here can play a big factor with the wind, so that's something that you can discuss, David, when we get into that section, there's always present danger that looms here because of the 74 bunkers and then half the holes featuring some semblance of water. There's a lot of talk about this course, and rightfully so for the T to green acumen that is needed, I decided to also add putting to the mix. I saw a 4% increase in the expected dispersion of scoring over the projected long-term historic, nice to be back, Joel. - Thank you for having me. - Yes, over the long-term duration of the stats there, but it's like one of the reasons why over 67% of shots occur from 150 plus yards. This is a very compact off the T test in general. You have 24-yard wide fairways. This three-inch thick rough is what we initially saw. I've seen that it's not quite as much now. There's been some mixed reports there. I guess let's pay attention to where this rough actually is going to sit over the next 24 hours, but I think sometimes we convolute the handicapping process more than it needs to be. One of the most important stats for me this week was just stroke-scained total. That's, yes, going to tell you who the good golfers are in the field, and it's a lot more than that when it comes down to any of the recalculations for how I weighed those areas. But this has been a very simplistic process for me over the past few years. I had Sam Burns two years ago. I had Taylor more last year. I don't think you need to reinvent the wheel when things are going well. So it's like, I'm just running the same model every single time, and it's been a very simple way to build it, but it's proven advantageous doing so. So I'm not going to change something that's working. Fair enough. And look, I had the winner here last year as well. Taylor Moore, we got him at 70 to 1 to win the golf tournament. So it was fantastic routines, and obviously a really hot week for us as the players as well. So as I said, I mean, we're just giving the product away at the moment with that 50% off discount in the description. So make sure you jump on that. Spencer, I've got to follow up question for you from that course breakdown before I give a bit of a spill on the weather. This tournament here last year, right? Par five scoring. The four par fives were the only holes that played under par for the week. How do you take that statistic? Does that then mean that you weigh par five scoring higher? Or do you take the fact that actually the majority of fields going to be building those holes in these to booty those holes? And you actually start to look at things like par four scoring, or the par threes all over 195 yards, you know, who plays those half holes well, where you can really differentiate yourself from the risk of the field. Yeah, one of the things that I do when I build my model is I always look at the historical returns that we've gotten in par three, four and five scoring. So I'll look how the winners have performed on those holes. Taylor Moore dominated the par fives there. So that's going to be an answer that kind of propels it a little bit in that direction. But I want to run things over a five year duration of time to figure out the winners, the top five, the top 10. People that are missing the cut, where are the struggles coming into play when I built my model for this event? I didn't have an abnormal distribution between the three ranges. It essentially became like 40% on par five, 30% on par four, 30% on par three for the importance that I found. There are certain courses where I think that sometimes the par five scoring gets heightened and you do have four here. But for whatever reason inside of my model from the data that I use, I didn't see a massive impact. And maybe that just comes down to that they're easy holes that if you're not taking advantage of them, then you are struggling and you're missing the cut. And that's kind of what my model showed. And then the real differentiating quality is how people performed on those other holes to kind of salvage their score on some of those difficult long par threes or those difficult par fours. Because there's a mix here from 450 plus yards where every single one of those par fours is going to be challenging. Fair enough. And I think that's a really good answer. You've shown your expertise, the best course down in the business, how to tackle the copyhead course and the snake pit as well. One thing that I noted that was really interesting, the same thing that happened last year, they've grown out the rough again. It's 3.75 inches, extremely rough. And they've had a heap of rain this year in Florida as well. So not only is it going to be long, it is going to be thick, it is going to be juicy. So finding the fairways has been really key for me. And then the approach from 200 plus yards plays a really big factor in my predictions as well this week. You really are going to need to find the fairway, keep it in the short grass. And then those long Island irons are going to be disproportionately higher than compared to other PGA to a venues as well. The other thing they did as well is they took the intermediate around the greens, used to be 75 feet away from the greens on average, they've moved it right up to 21 feet. So that rough is just choking down on all those greens, which is why some of those approach metrics come to play. Touching on the weather very briefly, as I said, you just need to be in the wind daily premium discord for all of the most updated weather. There is absolutely going to be some volatile weather this week. It's going to be pretty wild. It's going to play a factor. I'll make a prediction as I did it, the people beach. People beach, I said it would be a 50 hole, four hole tournament, which was correct this week. I think that they'll get all four rounds in because with people, they were following up with the Phoenix Open. It was a pretty big tournament. They knew that guys wanted to get there. Next week's tournament, the Houston Open, not necessarily the biggest event on the calendar. But I will predict that this will be a Monday finish, Friday, in particular, looks very bad. There's a lot of rain in the forecast, there's potential thunderstorms. And I do think that you'll get some delays on Friday as well, or some very high winds up to 40 mile per hour, winds gusting as well, which may be impossible to play in basically. So at the moment on current forecast, I'm predicting that Thursday AM Friday PM ends up being the wave that you want to be in. The reason being is that Friday, I think that you are going to get delays. You might not get the full round in and Saturday weather does look better. So if you're going off on Friday afternoon, you're going to get to come out on Saturday morning, calmer conditions that everyone else is going to face on Friday, and you may avoid the worst of it. So that's where it is currently from my perspective. But we use some of the best forecasting models in the business for weather. It's one of the sports, probably the only sport in the world that is the most effective by what's happening elsewhere in the universe. And we want to make sure that we want to get it right, especially for DFS. So make sure you have tuned into the Windaddy sports room and discord below. And with that, I will hand back to quarterback Joel, who is back in the room, in a different room, it appears with more stable internet connection. Apologies, apologies. Obviously, I am no stranger to losing my internet. We're not out of the woods for whatever reason tonight. I can't connect to my hot spot. So if I go without again, I don't know how I'm going to get back on. So I apologize. I hope this stays more stable. But we got a draft tonight to break it down. A fun draft that that audience believe you guys have shot for last week. So we're going to put you back in the lead spot tonight for the draft. We're going to go audience myself, David and Spencer. You will go forth tonight. Audience, you are on the clock with the first pick. As a refresher for how this works, you get a nomination into it. Everyone can put in anyone they want. Once the golfer is doubled, meaning what's a second person agrees with a nomination, that is your pick. It's a snake draft. It works just like any financing football draft that you do, meaning it'll go one through four, then four back to one. But you do have to stay within the draft King's salary. So you can't just take all the best players. You do have to make sure that your roster can actually be played and you can afford each player that you draft. Audience, we have a few nominations coming in. It's a good star. I like some of these names that I'm seeing. And it looks like that first pick is in with JT, who I love this week. He's the guy that I would have considered with my first pick. I probably would have taken with the first pick there. So we're aligned on JT. We'll go to you, David. Are you INJT at all this week? Yeah, I had him in my little practice draft here selected. I was hoping that he might get to me in third. Justin Thomas obviously is one of the best ball strikes in the world. I spoke about driving actually being really important here, but almost more important as your approach play. And Justin Thomas is obviously one of the best in world on that. And we've just really seen this game turn around. The other aspect I really like with Justin Thomas this week is that his ownership isn't looking like dreadfully high. I would have thought of be higher given he's the third most expensive on the board. And you've got guys like Xander Schafflay and Sam Burns higher. I'm seeing both of them sort of pushing 24-25%. Particularly for Sam Burns, I guess that's surprising. That's really just based on his course history for me more than anything else. And I think that Justin Thomas saving a bit of salary there and a bit of ownership is a really savvy player. I mean, you're saving $500 compared to just Sam Burns, for example. So really like the play there. And for the audience, just a reminder as well, if you are drafting that you need to be in the YouTube live chat, that's where we see all of your picks come in. So if you're following us on Twitter at the moment or Twitch or anything else, where this is a live stream, make sure to jump over to the YouTube live chat. Took the names in the chat there and that's how we get to see them. And you get to help team audience. We'll have a line up against us this week. Yeah, it's a great call. This show works because the audience is the best audience around. Get involved, get in the mix, get in the draft, get on YouTube. You can comment, you can make the picks and you can beat us, which you don't do often. But the audience has get their wins in there. So I think you guys are actually on a little bit of a hot streak more recently doing really well. So excited to see how this team turns out here. I'm going to go with my first pick. I'm going to go with value like I've been doing. I'm going to follow a theme that I've been following. I'm not going to start at the top. I'm going to find some value. Tonight's value is a guy I think I've drafted each of the last two weeks. It's in the 8K range and it's Doug Gimme. And he's another guy who the way he's playing in this field. I wouldn't have I would have thought he could have been in the 9K range. You know, the issue with Gimme is that he's going to come with a bit of ownership. So you've got to have to stomach that, but I'm OK with it here. I think he's the best value. His form is impeccable. I mean, each of his last five tournaments, he's got a top 15. He's got a top 10 within that mix. You know, he really has a really strong finish every time he's gone out since the end of January. So I don't see that stopping here. I think this is a good course fit for him. He really doesn't have a weakness in his game, the way he's been playing over the last two months. And I think he gets you another top 20 finish for sure. So I love Gimme. Excited that he landed to me here. Spent, I want to go to you. I want to get to see if you're on Gimme it all this week or Justin Thomas. I think ownership would be the only problem with Doug Gimme. Models are going to love him. My model in particular loved him. There are probably routes that you could pivot away from him if you're in a lineup or a contest that needs to go a different direction. But look, I'm not going to talk anybody out of Doug Gimme on the surface level of what I think he is. Like he is an undervalued commodity in my model that let's see where the ownership actually comes in the play. But it's not vastly different than any of these high end names we're talking about. It's like, I don't see him at 35%. I have him at sub 20 right now. He's about 19%. So let's see where that number ends up closing when it's all said and done. But I mean, as of right now, he is not a player that I've removed from my player pool. I do think that there are a couple pivots, as I said, but I think Gimme makes a lot of sense. I'm with you. I think I have 20. I'm happy and comfortable. If he does get to 35, then I will reconsider because that's that's excessive. But at 20, I'm more than happy to take the swing on him there. David, you're up with your first pick here at three. We'd love your take on Doug Gimme this week and then you're on the top. Yeah, look, I love Doug Gimme this week in beating markets. I think I can fairly say that he made my betting card this week because we got him at 50 to one, which you won't find anywhere else anymore. I think that's probably the way I want to get my exposure to Doug Gimme this week, just because his ownership is going to be really high. I know that Spenthesum in 19, I have him a little over 20%. I do think that he can potentially get a bit of steam as well because, objectively, he's too cheap, right? He's in great form. And of the courses that he's been playing lately, this is actually the best course fit for him. He's eight in this field over the last 12 months for driving accuracy. He's in the top 20 for approach over 200 yards in the last 12 months. And those are both the key recipe for success here. And he's putting well, he's gained in all of his recent tournaments, putting now suddenly and at 8,400 he's just far too cheap. So I like him in that aspect, but I think that if I was getting exposure, it's going to be in the betting markets rather than in DFS personally, just because of the ownership and that comes with it. I'm very, very talented though. I mean, came out of the class of Kolomorokara and Viktor Hoffland. He was kind of in the same conversations, those two guys, obviously his professional career hasn't panned out the same way as theirs has, but he looks like he's finally fulfilling the promise that he showed as an amateur through college. So for me, I'm going to go and grab some value as well. I would have actually taken Justin Thomas with my first pick here just because of the way I want to build this week, but I'm going to go and get some exposure further down the board to Adam Schink at 7,100. Look, he looked a lot better last week at the players' championship, much better performance, especially in the final round against Sam Burns, pulling through in the matchup for us as the underdog at +180. Finishing 19th at the players' championship is just no small feat and he's got a great record here for Naseka in 2023, and of course, that's really correlated as another narrow tree-lined course with lots of online approaches as Murafel Village, the host of the memorial, he finished 7th the last year as well, great performances East Lake at the 2A championship finish tonight, so there's lots to like about Adam Schink coming in much better form, second here last year, and I think he's a bargain at 7,100. There you have it. Interesting theme, two more value picks in a row in the first round, which I like. We've certainly seen some Adam Schink upside in the last six months or so, so it's a value player that I am behind, Spence, we'd love your take on Adam Schink this week, and then you got two. Yeah, I agree with everything that David said, he had great upside numbers in my model, it's one of the positive climbers in that area, we don't have that many $7,000 golfers and I think that's probably one of the reasons why there's, I mean, even if you look at Doug Kim, I guess at 84 being under price, like there's this mad dash in everybody's mind to try to find the value in that range and get the player or two that they want, so I like the Adam Schink pick, I think he makes a lot of sense. I'm going to go a completely different route, if you guys are going to, I mean, I don't know how we've gotten into this the last couple of weeks, but it's like, I think we're at like six consecutive shows where I've just been given the last pick here, so I'm going to fight my way through being stacked at the very end of this and try to make the most of it and I am going to go chalk of all chalk, this is the chalkiest you will ever see me start a build, but I'm going to go with Zander at the top, I think that like when you build a model, there are, and I understand this is going to come off the wrong way because Scotty Sheffler actually wins golf tournaments and Zander Shoffley does not, but when I'm looking at actual win equity percentages inside of my sheet, like, Zander graded as if he was the Scotty Sheffler of this field, that doesn't mean that he necessarily gets across the finish line, I mean, if you recall, Scotty went on a little bit of a hiatus without winning himself, and then all of a sudden he goes back to back. So I just think Zander is the talent of this field, I think the form is immaculate right now and when I look at the weighted strokes gain total or any of the weighted scoring that I had put together, he lacked the field for me, so I'm going to take who I believe is the best golfer in this tournament, and then I'm going to dip down and I'm going to go back in on Brian Harmon again, like, yes, it's 220% plus plays in a row, I am fine being able to differentiate my lineup by either leaving extra salary on the table with us going down to five grand, or by just finding some value plays down beneath that are going to be like sub 1% own, but I think Harmon's skill set for this course checks all the boxes really that I was looking for. So Zander and Brian Harmon for me to start. There you have it, those are definitely are two of the better players in this field, Zander for sure, Harmon looked really good last week, I agree is a good sports fit, I think it's a good start, we're interested to see how you round out this plug with value as the draft goes on. David, you're on the clock with your second big, would love your take on Zander and Harmon and then where you going after Shane? Yeah, of the two, I'm probably more intrigued by Brian Harmon this week, Zander Shoflay obviously I share concerns as spin stars that the win equity is maybe just not the year, I mean this guy is in one since July of 2022 and really probably should have won about three tournaments with the way that he plays. In the positive, he is excellent over 200 yards on approach, he's one of the best in the field in that metric, I guess some of my concern comes from the fact that he was right there at the players, he had two parts that he really, he should have made at least one of to get into the playoff, one of them was particularly short and he again just stumbled at the finishing block and I think it's a big tournament to be in contention with it's an exhausting week and not get the job done I think could be a bit emotionally distressing from Brian Harmon on the other hand, I think that very promising in terms of his driving accuracy metrics, the approach game obviously experienced a huge spike last week, we both liked him coming into the week and he played very well as we kind of predicted so of the two there would probably be the route that I would go. seeing how this draft has played out and I didn't get Justin Thomas, I'm going to go and grab some more value before everybody else can and I'm going to take Kristen Bizadon Hout at 8800, 13th last week at the players' champions, should we really like to meet around the week as well and I think that he more than performed admirably at this tournament, at that tournament there last week. In terms of this field, in terms of comp courses, he actually rates 16th for me in terms of stroke scheme total on comp courses and over the last 12 months he's seventh on approach within this field as well, I think that's a really promising recipe for someone who's a really good putter, who's really accurate off the tee, he can grind it out, he's going to be able to scramble, he's going to make you putts and I expect him to finish towards the pointy end of the field come Sunday. There you have it, I love the pick, you know he's definitely a value in most tournaments that we like, in this tournament, I wouldn't really call him a value, I mean the price is up but I think rightfully so, I think he's earned that price tag, he's playing really well, I think he's capable of going on and winning this tournament so definitely a player iron behind this week, spend, how about you, will you be on Bizadon Hout at all this week? I think Bizadon has trending form, he's eighth in my model and expected proximity at this venue, it's really just going to come down and I guess it would be a very similar answer in a lot of ways that I would say with Eric Cole right beneath him, how good is the driver going to be? Now he has accuracy in my model and I think that's a positive when I've looked at him at some of these hard to hit fairways, he had a decline in my math the way I ran it but I mean it's hard to argue against him even at this price tag like yeah I agree he's a little bit more expensive than we generally expect him to be but the form's immaculate the safety numbers in my model really like him and there's really no other way to shake it like he's a top 20 player in all iterations of the math that I ran so I don't have anything bad to say about him other than the off the tee stuff which I think at a course like this can be mitigated a little bit if he's actually finding fairways and if he does that the ceiling is a lot larger for him maybe this week than at some tournaments. There you have it, I love it. I'm going to explain my pick here real quick, I have my pick in mind. I like this player, I'm kind of stuck with him because of the way this draft went and there's maybe a top four or five guys that you can get and about four of them are gone so if I want one of the top talents I got to take them, now my team is going to start very chalky as I go with Sam Burns here, we're going to be very popular with Game & Burns, I like Burns you know I think he's going to be over owned because of his history more than anything but looking at this field, I mean Burns is a top five talent in this field conservatively maybe better so you definitely want to have some exposure to one of those guys up at the top and with JT Gons and or gone Harman gone kind of like my only option left so again I like Burns I think he's can do well, I wouldn't necessarily want to start always with this chalky but I'm okay with it, I can get different elsewhere so I'm going to make sure I lock in one of these top talented and Burns and I'll find a way to make a note for it later in the draft. Audience, you were on the clock, you got two, I see the nominations are looking at the first picks already and it's a great job, before we get to the audience pick I'd love to get it, it spends your feedback on Burns. I mean Joel you and I are having a chalk off right now, I don't know, I mean I think there are some, I will say this about Sam Burns and this might be counterintuitive for a lot of things that I've talked about with him this week, I think his outright betting number in a lot of ways is criminal where it opened, he is way too low, like I almost prefer him like if I'm going to want to grab exposure it's almost the opposite answer that David gave about GIM because I do think GIM as a top 20 bet is kind of like a savvy way to go in that direction or I also have the outright ticket to that I grabbed on Monday like that might be like the better way to go there, I think Burns gives you the opposite mix where he might just actually be better with the course history that he's provided to play on draft Kings and then in the outright market if he beats you he beats you. Yeah, I like that logic I think that makes sense and this is a unique tip of tournament where you can play games like that because you know I feel like there's a smaller number of guys that I really have confidence in to win this tournament, so you can kind of play some outright games and then fading in DFS to kind of cover your exposure. The first pick for the audience is definitely it and that is straka and I don't think this second pick is confirmed but there's a few nominations, oh is it Nick Taylor, yes it's Nick Taylor. So you got straka and Nick Taylor, I love this start for the audience here, I was considering Nick Taylor even at 9-1, I think he's overpriced at 9-1 but he's playing well, it's kind of one of those where it's like it's hard to look at Nick Taylor at 9-1 but in a bit of a watered down field and the way he's playing it's probably justified price and I'm okay with going there, I was thinking about doing it with my pick there, so I like that start, David we'll go to you any interest in straka or Taylor this week? Well I don't want to start Taylorgate but I'm not sure if B.D. Frye means Nick Taylor or Taylor Montgomery or Taylor Moore or Taylor Swift, I mean one of them at least in the other field is the Taylor that B.D. Frye meant, so look Nick Taylor for me is a no-go, I really liked him last week at the players' championship, the thing is for me is he's now priced up at 9100, we got him at 175-1 last week and now he's 35-1 and he played great the first two days, then absolutely lost his swing on the Saturday and just played dreadful after that and the concern for me now is you get this huge uptick in his salary and I'm seeing like 15% ownership even then going up to 9100, so you're just spending all of the salary for someone that his price has just shot through the roof and he played great for two rounds and then didn't play great after that, so that would be my concern, the other note on Nick Taylor was he's much better with his wedges, he's very good under 150 yards on the road, that's why we put him up at TPC sawgrass because you do have a huge number of wedge shots on that golf course, this is the polar opposite, you've got 200+ yards approach here which isn't necessarily the strongest bit of Nick Taylor's game, I think Sam Strzok is a really interesting name in terms of the absolute upside that we know that you get with Sam Strzok, he's a real boom of us play, I like him in large DPPs as a pick because the upside is absolutely there, he could easily go out and finish top 5 in this tournament, again just you are taking on a lot of chalk with that pick, I'm getting ownership numbers at like 13% which for the 7k puts him as the highest owned within that range. There you have it, definitely ownership games to be played this week, before I go to my pick I look at your views spent on the Nick Taylor and Sip Strzok a pick from the audience. I don't think it's quite the same spot we're talking about here with Sip Strzok at this tournament and Brian Harmon last week, I talked about during last week's event at the players how at the API Brian Harmon over achieved expectations on a course that I didn't necessarily love him for, the ball striking returns looked great, kind of get the same answer here with Sip Strzok, he dominated T to green last week, 8.4 strokes gained T to green, I think from an upside large field GPP perspective, if you're swinging for the fence on him that's great, I don't love the ownership that goes with it because normally when you want to take those swing for the fence plays, you don't want them to also be played by everybody else because you lose a lot of the leverage that you're trying to create in that spot. But I think Strzok makes a lot of sense, not going to talk anybody out of that and I probably like Nick Taylor a little bit more than David does, arguably overpriced, I think that's a fair assessment, but even if you're directly comparing him with a lot of those upper $8,000 golfers, I mean I probably pick him over most of those names, so to me he's a fair price that you have to make a decision on, but I don't have anything negative to say. Oh, I love it, there you have it. Alright, with my next pick here, I'm going to go with another value play, I draft a lot on the draft guys, but he is in very good form and only $7,300, I really like Sam Ryder this week. You know, he's got a T21 at the Classic, top T16 at the players, in terms of checking the boxes, I mean he does, this does seem to be a good course fit, he's pretty accurate with his driver, in terms of proximity, those long irons he's been excelling at, and he's been hot with that partner. We've seen him go on streaks where he's gone on multiple tournaments in a row where he's gained four plus strokes putting. If he's able to do that again this week, I think Sam Ryder can get us another top 15 or 20, or maybe even top 10, so at $7,300, definitely a value, I would have played Ryder at 8K, so I'm happy to think the salary savings here and give you plenty of flexibility with my following picks. Spence, I'll go to you, will you be playing Ryder at all this week? It's tough for this show, it's kind of the discussion we have every single week where once one name is off the board, like for me that would be Adam Shank, that you can no longer take, then all of a sudden everything has to alter if you are trying to get down to certain ranges, like I much prefer Adam Shank when directly comparing the two of them, so I would rather just find myself overweight to shank in this spot. Ryder is a fringe top 50 guy in most iterations of how I ran my model, I think he's going to be very popular, like also at about 10 plus per cent, so I worry about the ownership a little bit at the end of the day, I guess, for a golfer that I don't have those upside metrics for, I don't know if David has a different opinion on that. Yeah, so I quite like the Sam Ryder player just simply because I think he's your natural pivot spot away from Lucas Glover who's going to be really high-owned and from Adam Shank who's going to be high-owned as well, I see both of them pushing double digits sort of in the 10 and a half to 12 per cent range for Shank and Glover and Sam Ryder at the moment and I have eight and a half per cent ownership, so a little bit lower and I had a prediction pre this draft of how Joel's draft would go and I had him picking both Doug Gun and Sam Ryder and they're both there in the first three picks, so glad to see that my forecasting is going to plan and the draft is playing out mostly to plan other than the audience stealing Justin Thomas from me. Yeah, I would say I am pretty predictable from that point, you know, generally, about the 10 guys I'm typically drafted, David got your pick on your stance on Ryder, you got 8500 to spend, so a lot of money left, Shank and Busyina helps us far, who are you targeting here with your third pick? Yeah, I'm going to stick, I mean as I said this draft is playing out for the most part exactly as I planned, and I'm going to stick in the value range with someone who I think is going under the radar a bit too much, a really nice pivot spot and that's Andrew Putnam at 7700. You've got a lot of ownership right there with Sip Striker, Taylor Moore, he got Brendan Todd and Lucas Glover below him also eating up a lot of ownership, but Andrew Putnam has just been striping it on approach the last two tournaments he was going, gaining over 1.5 on approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, obviously pretty correlated in terms of a lot of long lines at that golf course, and then back that right up at the players gaining over 1.2 per round at the players championship last week on approach. Excellent correlated form finished fifth last year at the Memorial at Muirafield Village, he's got correlated form at the Travelers as well where he's finished their 10th before, and I just think that he's a bit of golfer then the ownership particularly gives him credit for really nice pivot spot and he could be the guy who comes out in the 7K range and finishes top 10, top 15 and really makes you a lineup of winning one. I like that, Becky, he was the one that was on my radar as well, he will be at my player pool this week. I had seen recently, his ball striking was up, I was playing him in showdown lineups on the last few tournaments, so it's 7700, I would call it a value play, especially in this tournament, so definitely a guy that I will be looking at as well, Spence, will you be playing Andrew Putnam all this week and then you got two more? Yeah I think it's nice value on Putnam with a lot of the trending metrics, I guess the one thing that comes into play with him is course history and if we're not necessarily valuing course history here for all the reasons that I talked about, like yes you have those high end returns of players going back to back, but there doesn't seem to be a bunch of corollary answers past that point, so a person who's in form right now that's trending in the right direction with Putnam, I think that's completely understandable trying to go in that route. So for me, I mean, here's the problem, I'm too competitive at the end of the day because I really want to go Cameron Young and Carson Young because I just think it's funny to take both of them even though there's a very small difference between Cameron Young and Sungjae in at the end of the day, but I'm going to take Sungjae in, I'm going to take Carson Young. I think Cameron Young is still a good pick though, it's just a very small difference I had between Sungjae and Cameron. We'll talk about Cameron in a second even though I didn't take him, but I think for him the reason why I got pushed over the top is it has been a poor year for Sungjae by all accounts of what we have seen. Like you take away that fifth place at the century, there's very little to be excited about. I think though that you have a spot here, he's averaged 4.8 strokes, T degree and over the past two starts, that's a total that's eclipsed the negative 1.3h strokes that he's gained on average during the previous five times he's teeted up. He was one of the big climbers for me when you put him on a corollary comp courses for putting, so that's going to be these Bermuda surfaces that are dormant that get over seeded with this poetry of the Alice. I think you're going to have to make putts here and Sungjae has at least shown that ability inside of my model more than Cameron Young has. I think with Cameron Young and maybe this is an answer where him with my next golfer makes a lot of sense because we have talked about it a lot on this show and we've used these names over and over again. Like Ludwig Oberg, Cameron Young, Cameron Davis, the player I'm going to take here in Davis Thompson. These are elite distance drivers of the ball, but they seem to actually play better when you put them in these club down spots. So shocker for anybody who tunes into this show. One of my head-to-head bets this week was Davis Thompson over Web Simpson. That's more of an argument against why I'm trying to take on Web Simpson than anything else because Davis Thompson doesn't necessarily have the safety profile that I want. This is the epitome of what GPP large field only would be because I do think there's a downside to Davis Thompson here, but some of the ball striking metrics has approached game trending this year. There's a lot I like about his profile for a tournament that I think he does put the pieces together. He has hidden top 10 equity in this tournament. Oh, I love it and I love the sneaky kind of value that you're getting where you might get some lower ownership. It might be a little bit more of a sneaky play, but Davis Thompson we've seen was two tournaments ago or three. He popped in. I think he had the low round of the day in round three and went really low. So you know he has that upside and that capability. The name crossed my money wasn't my player pool yet, but if you're on him, I might have to make some changes. David, you got your fourth pick here. We'd love your take on Sanjay and Davis Thompson and who you going here with with your fourth bet. Also guys, I have no money left. I think something's wrong. Well, no, it was wrong with you drafted too many expensive guys. I was very confused because I thought that I thought that Spencer had drafted Carson Young there at one point within that conversation now. I thought that he'd taken Carson Young and Sanjay and Davis Thompson with two picks at the same time. So, Spencer, you've got 6300 left on average. That's fine. There's a 5k range. We'll have to see how you work that one out at this point. So I'm just going to take three picks with my two players. This is what happens when you put me at the end of the draft. There's been a lot of weeks of back-to-back picks. If you try to slip in a third one, sometimes you get away with it. I know that you're talking points being signed that you'd go straight to the fact you got given the last pick as an excuse there. Sanjay, I think, is really interesting just because I think he is going to be a bit of a pivot at Sears Ownership's pretty low. He's looked a little bit better the last couple of weeks, 18th at the Arnold Panda, 31st at the players' temperature, but he gained a ton of the stroke-driving accuracy as well, gaining heaps on the field, finding fairways, which is really going to be quite important here. Good record at Muirfield, finished teeth here previously, and fourth here back in 2019 on debut. So I think he's an interesting name. Davis Thompson has some concerns about the driving accuracy with him, although I will say that he ranks out very, very well for long-iron approach. So an interesting selection there. Given how little Spence has here, where's everyone else? Actually, I think I can kind of play this however I want and you guys won't be able to get to who I'm going to take. I'm going to go and take Tony Feynell at 9300. He ranks out really well for me in terms of a pivot option, lower owned than basically everyone, 9100 and above. I think he's going to be tied with kind of Nick Taylor in terms of ownership, but everyone else is pushing 18-19-20% above him. Tony Feynell, in this field over the last 12 months, is the best for strokes gained approach from over 200 yards. The most promising thing for me is that he's both long and accurate off the tee, but the putter has really started to improve. We saw him make some changes to his putting stroke at the Mexico Open, he gained strokes putting there, and then same last week at the players' championship against gain strokes on the field putting. I think that's really promising. Really excellent con courses at Mirafield Village. He's finished 8th, 8th, 11th, 13th, there previously. If the copy here, he's finished fifth and hasn't played here since 2018. So obviously making a return to this golf course, I think it's really going to suit his game. And I think he's sneaky value at 9300 for the golfer that really not that long ago. We regard it as one of the top team players in the world. You're getting a huge discount on both price and ownership this week. I agree. I think Tony Feynell is a value this week. I think 9300 is a little bit low for him. He is an upper eche on upper tee or golfer. I like that. I think it's an interesting selection. Spence, how about you? Will you be on Feynell at all this week? I think when you look at the ownership, I see him at 13.5% right now. That number has kind of been trickling back and forth between 13.5% to 15% for me over the past 24 hours or so. It's going to come down to the putter and it's going to come down to his ability to not go completely wayward off the tee. But the ball striking numbers at their core, there's a reason, like David's correct, there's a reason why this guy was universally thought of as even if we want to say top 10 player or not a top 10 player, like as one of the premier ball strikers at a tee to green course that should find success. So I think as a pivot play in some of these larger field contests, it makes a lot of sense. Oh, I love it. I love it. All right, with my fourth pick here, I have some solutions for the chalk, but we're not getting there yet. For now, I'm going to take Maverick but Neely. Maverick Neely has been playing really good golf recently, a little chalky this week, but now I'm seeing about 13%. So I can stomach that. His scrambling around the green game is absolutely elite. Something that's going to be very valuable here. The driver has been pretty accurate. He's not the best approach by everybody. That's not his game. So I think people are, I think that will keep his ownership down like a lot of people who play DFS are just looking for guys who have the consistency on their approach play. You're not going to get that from McNeely, but his is around the green game is putting has been spectacular. I think that that good form carries over this week. I think you get a really good finish for him at the low AK range. I think that the value I would have been happy with him in the mid to high AK range. So McNeely is my pick. David, we'd love to hear from you. What are your thoughts on McNeely? And before we get your answer, just a reminder audience, you are on the clock. So feel free to start putting your nominations as now. And hopefully they'll be able to get one doubled by the time we're done talking about McNeely. McNeely for me, I think he possesses a lot of upside. I think he's an interesting boom of bust play. I think he's either going to withdraw or finish top 30 and there will be kind of no in between with him, which is kind of what you want in a large GPP contest. What I point out with McNeely, which I found really interesting when considering his chances this week is that last year when he was in this kind of stretch of golf, he withdrew at the People Beach. He withdrew at the Phoenix Open. He finished 60th of the players championship and then still managed to finish 36 here. So that was really interesting in terms of, I think that it's probably a course that does suit him quite well. Some concern driving accuracy, as you pointed out, but he has gained on the field for driving accuracy, both at the cognizant and at the players championship when finishing ninth like last week. In terms of the ownership, I don't think it's going to be too bad. You've got Adam Hamlin there who's going to be really popular. Obviously Doug Ginn is going to take up a lot of ownership, but then Sip Stryker and Taylor Moore right below as well are both going to be high on too. So he may be a sneaky pivot away from some of those names in large GPP contests. I love it. I love it. All right, audience, you're doing a great job. It looks like at least one pick is in. I think we still need a second. But while we wait expense, will you be playing memory all this week? It concerns me a little bit that he gained 10.3 strokes with his short game at the players. Like that's an alarming amount that probably makes that finish a little bit more high end than it really should have been like it's probably a miscut without that. But I do agree that when we're trying to find a way to pivot away from some of the chalk in this range, like he either pops and continues what we've seen or the wheels fall off at a course where maybe his irons end up hurting him a little bit. So I haven't made a decision one way or another yet. If he's in my player pool or not, but I do think as a contrarian route, it makes some sense with it. Oh, I love it. I love it. Audience, great job and two great picks. Both guys I am considering was on this week. So I like both picks. You're getting Victor Perez and Novak. You know, Novak's interesting. He was obviously the darling. He was red hot, disappointed a bit last week. And that's the type of guy where people after one of that we tend to just kind of go away from. And I think, you know, he could easily bounce back this week and find some of that form that he had. So he's definitely someone I will be looking at. Both guys under 7K. So two really solid value picks there as well. I'll go back to you, Spengs. Will you be playing Perez or Novak at all this week? I think they're both savvy picks. Like I've been trying to figure out in this $6,000 section exactly where I want to go. Those were two names for me that were inside of the top 30 of my model in most ways that I ran it this week. So when we're talking about these, I mean, I'll consider them low end names. I think more of the true low end options probably become the $5,000 golfers now. Like for me, this six, this upper $6,000 range is really the formerly known mid $7,000 range. I think everybody just got pushed down a little bit further on the board. But I thought there were a lot of values in the $6,000 section. Those were two names for me that I am at least considering as of right now. But there's probably 10 plus names. And when I did the show with Byron yesterday over at Rotoballer, I think I legitimately rattled off 15 guys that I thought had intrigued in the $6,000 section. So the audience hit on two of them. Oh, I love it. I love it. All right. I am following this up here with another guy in the 8k range. And I'm going to explain to you why I like Bohos. I'm taking Bohos are here. We know he was on a hot show this year. We talked about a bunch on this show over the last, you know, pretty much since January. I mean, he's given us a top 10, a top 20, two top 30s. And then last week, he missed the cut. He lost five strokes on approach. And I think people are going to see that and be pretty disappointed. But wait, if you take a closer look, the reality is he had two just terrible holes on the second day. Other than that, his numbers really weren't that bad. He actually gained strokes on approach in round one, then got murdered in round two and missed the cut. So I think that might be overblown. I think he's still playing really good golf at 8,300. I think you're getting a value for how well he's been playing this year. I think he could have been priced up in this market as well. Other than that, he should be a really good course fit, right? I think from the scrambling around the green perspective, he's one of his strengths. He's pretty accurate with his driver. I think if he finds some of those approach shots in those irons this week, he can have a really solid finish. Spent, how about you? Are you playing Bo Hasler all this week? We've talked about this a lot, Joel, this season. Obviously it didn't work out last week at the players, I guess, because of the approach numbers that you talked about. But I do continue to believe that he's a golfer that goes under the radar in a lot of these contests. And the course history is never really during the stretch where you want it to be. But he's been overachieving those marks throughout the entire time of the season. And if we keep pointing back to this event, of it not necessarily having the most predictive qualities to it, I think Hasler is a very enticing name to consider in this $8,000 section if you're trying to get a little bit different away from the very natural points that are going to land you on the game or any of those other things. And I think for you specifically with your build, I do think McNeilan, Hasler kind of are a very natural move away from the chalk at the top there. I love it. And that was a lot of my thought process was I can afford some chalk by now getting different down here with some of these guys in the late rounds. David, you got your fifth pick, about $8,500 to spend a lot left would love your take on Bo Hasler this week and then who you take it with your next pick? I take the point that Bo Hasler is probably a good pivot within that range. I'm seeing 5% ownership. He's not going to be high-owned. So in terms of GPPs, that's always going to be intriguing for a golfer that's had good pro performance and other than last week has been playing very well. My consumer would come from his head, four goes at this golf tournament and his head, he said five goes sorry at this golf tournament. He's missed four cuts and he finished 39th. So he's never really performed all that well here. And so I guess that would be some of my concerns off a week where he lost a ton on approach to the players as well. So probably not for me, but I get what you're saying in terms of the GPP ownership aspect as well. I'm going to go and get some leverage myself. I'm going to stick again down the bottom of the board and I think I've got to play a golfer down this end because otherwise Spencer's going to take him. So I'm going to take Alexander Bjork at 6400. He's really intriguing to me. This is a really good course for him in terms of the driving accuracy. Finished 47th last start at the college and classic after missing a couple of cuts. He's obviously just moved over from the DP wheel tour, finding his feet on the PGA tour as well and finished to him 11th pretty early on at the American Express I think was a promising sign. In terms of like corollary courses on the DP wheel tour, this is a golfer who's really accurate off the tee. He's a really good putter, which I think is going to be an absolute asset around this golf course. But he also gains a lot on long line approaches. And I think that's what he's going to find this week. He's just putting top 10s together like every single week on the DP wheel tour. I expect him to arrive at like a tree line, narrow golf course where you can use this driving accuracy to keep it in the short stuff, make a lot of parts and use his long line approach player to perhaps surprise some people at 6400 with like next to zero ownership. Oh, I love it. I love it. Getting us the European players as well, super value spent. Would love your take on Bjork and you've got two to round up the squad. Yeah, great long iron numbers from Bjork, fabulous accuracy totals. Like I said, there's a lot of players in the $6,000 section that are going to make some sense. So first of all, I guess two part are here. I did select three people the last go around, which makes me feel like I now need to take Carson Young based off of this. So you guys were not incorrect on that take there. I was meaning to take Sun J and Carson and somehow it became Davis Thompson, which I like a lot, but that was going to be later on in the show when I was trying to project this worked out fine didn't necessarily make a difference. I also kind of would just like to play Jordan's speed than myself. Like that's probably like legal. I probably am worth 2300 or whatever the leftover would be there. And that would be a nice little conclusion to this bill after leaving myself no money. But I guess I'll go with Carson Young. There are intriguing upside numbers with him. There's there's a lot of things in my sheet that really increased his projections with the way that I was trying to run it. I don't love necessarily the form that he's bringing in with the miscut and the 56 in the last two starts. But I think before that it was at least a cut maker to begin this year. And I think down in this range, he has a lot of trending data that makes sense. I'm going to pair him and there were two names at full disclosure here. I think Justin Lauer, Jacob Bridgman, can afford either one of those two. I'm going to take Lauer when diving into some of his weighted proximity numbers that I had. So 41st overall and expect a proximity for Copperhead. He climbs all the way for 15th in this field from weighted proximity from 150 plus yards. We have seen him pop here and there over the past year. You know, it's kind of the argument that I always make on this show when I put myself in this position. Like you have to find a metric or a category that you can hold on to because any of these golfers in the $6,000 section or $5,000 section are going to have obvious flaws. That's why they're priced down in this range. So I'm trying to find an area or two where I can find further upside that maybe some in the market are not trying or not able to locate. So I'll go Carson Young. I will go Justin Lauer. There you have it. I'm usually a Carson Young guy. I think Carson Young bird eyes a lot of upside. He's typically underpriced. I think both guys are two value plays that I would typically play. If you are dipping that low, those are the two guys I'd be looking at to go in that range. So I definitely like those two picks there. I think you rounded out your squad very nicely. David, we love your take on Young and Lauer and then you got one pick to go. Yeah, of those two, I probably prefer the Carson Young play. Carson Young is a little bit less owned than I thought that he might be. I thought he'd actually attract a little bit more attention. Really good approach from his long lines particularly. Finished 15th at the TPC River Highlands. The Travelers Championship pretty correlated course here. There was a signature event as well. So it was a really impressive performance and he gains a heap with his driving accuracy. I do think as well, like around the green's been really predictive at Copperhead previously. But we saw a little bit last year and I think I'll be the saying this year where because they've moved that intermediate in from 71 feet to 20 something feet as I said at the top of the show, that kind of takes some of the skill out of your chipping performance because you're not going to get these tighter lines. You're just going to find the ball and really thick rough and you just got to hack it out and then take some of the skill and creativity around the greens out of the game there. So I do kind of like that aspect for Carson Young. Justin Lauer for me is probably a fade just simply because his correlated form on courses is just really poor. He's never made a cut at the Copperhead course at Mureford Village or TPC River Highlands. Those are all factored into my performance this week in terms of building my play pool and the fact he's missed cuts at all of those, I guess raises some concerns. I think he's pretty chalky. 4.5% might not sound a lot but when you're in the 5K range, that's basically like the top of what you're going to find within the 5Ks in terms of ownership. And I would have thought Jason Hadley's an interesting one. I'll just put that name out there. I think that he's worth considering within that range. I love it. Is Jason Hadley your pick here? Absolutely not. I'm not going to leave like 4K on the table Joel as much as you might want me to. I'm going to take Jordan's beef here. Again, thank you audience for stealing Justin Thomas from me. I'll call you out one more time. I would have liked to have taken him within my team this week but I will very happily take Jordan's beef. He's a past winner on this golf course back in 2015. He's won at TPC River Highlands, finished third here last year as well, finished fifth at newer fields last year. He's looked in really good form other than missing the cut last week. A pet had surprised a lot of people but look, I think that he's one of the talents in this field. And I think in terms of the approach numbers, this week actually suits him a lot better than what we saw at the players' championship. We've always seen play really well in these fiddly golf courses. Obviously Heritage is another one that comes to mind. He's going to have the ability to find fair races long-run approaches excellent. And then his ability to scramble in part can be some of the best in the world. And we've seen a lot of return to kind of the normal Jordan's beef in the last sort of three to four months in that respect. I love it. I love it. I think I've got Jordan's beef here last pick certainly makes sense here. Spence, I know you mentioned to me pretty recently. So I assume he is in your player pool. We'll love your take on that pick. I like Jordan's beef. I think that of all of the players will include Brian Harmon into this mix. I mean, this is going to be where you're able to at least separate yourself with ownership percentage from everybody else. Like Shoffley Burns, I think they're going to go higher than my numbers even have. Like, I think they're going to both be 25 plus percent. I think Thomas might even start trending towards that 20 plus range. Harmon is obviously very close. Speeth I have at 15 percent. I wouldn't be shocked if we see this even a little bit lower than that. So I think he's a very nice play. We've seen what he has done at this course last year where, I mean, I think between Shank and himself, either one of those two guys, even though I got lucky on the tail or more play, probably were a little bit more deserving down the stretch than more. And more just happened to keep his foot on the pedal and actually get across the finish line. But I like Jordan's beef last week. It didn't work out. I think this is another spot just like the Justin Thomas one where it's a nice bounce back opportunity at a course where he should be able to play well. All right, I love it. So for my last pick here, there was three guys that I was really zoned in on. Those three guys were Rio. So I know it's the thing. I drop the same guys every week. Joel Dommen and Victor Parrots. Now Victor Parrots is gone. The audience took up great jobs. Now it's down to two. I really don't trust Joel Dommen. He played great last week. He really hit the ball well. He's just not consistent. And while the numbers probably look better than Rio's, I just, and Rio missed two cuts in a row. I just think Rio's, if you didn't look at his numbers, he's playing pretty good golf. He doesn't really have too many blowups. I think this is a good course fit for him. I think he can get us a good result. And this is a weaker field, probably a better field for him to get a good result at 7K and the ownership, right? And Joel's going to carry some pretty good ownership because of how we play this week. Rio will not. So I think he just makes more sense. I think Rio does have a bit of upside in this tournament. It's a bit of a gamble. But like I said, you know, it's my last pick. Some of the other guys that I may have taken on gone. So I think Rio does have the ability to kind of be a difference maker and a chalky lineup in a GPP where he will be lower owned. Audience, last pick is already in. Great job. Before we get to the audience, last pick, Spencer, will you be playing Rio at all this week? I think the Joel Damon ownership just to start there is wild. Like it's way too much. I understand that you look and you gain 13 strokes T to green, but I have no interest in that route. I agree with the Victor Perez answer. I was kind of hoping to round my line up out with Perez and something potentially underneath from there. Maybe like, I don't know what I could have afforded, but I think Rio's fine. I think Rio makes a ton of sense. Like I think you and I Joel probably more so than 99% of people and I might be generous to everybody else are more real believers than the general public out there. My numbers always really like him. We've seen a little bit of a decline here recently, but I think this is a supremely talented goal for that at some point gets back on track. I agree. And I think when you're looking deeper at the numbers, like the numbers aren't bad. You know, you missed the cut by a stroke or two here is different than guys who kind of blow up. And I think Rio is really close, which gives me some confidence that we'll see some better results in the near term. Audience, great job with your last pick. Aaron Riegg, I was considering, should be a good course fit. I like that pick there. David, we'll love your cake on both Rio and the audience's last pick of Aaron Riegg. I do like that Joel started just calling him Rio with no attempted order to pronounce the last name anymore at this point. Rio has sat in a fantastic golfer. Look, I've said before on the draft cast, I'll say it again, that I suspect that he's going to become the Tom Kim of the DP World Tour and really burst onto the scene of the PGA Tour. The guy is just so talented, incredibly young. He's only 21 and a half. He's just a huge talent. And I agree. I think that he's really going to burst on the scene. The driving accuracy is very good for him. I think that's real positive. We've seen him perform on similar courses on the DP World Tour in terms of where driving actually has been really an advantage as well. And the long-arm proximity looks decent enough. So I think he's a really interesting name. I was sort of tying up between Alexander Bjork and Rio has sat in a for my pick with my first selection there. So I think he's a great selection. Aaron Riegg is going to create a bit of, yeah, I think he's a decent enough pick. I'm just a little bit worried with the ownership. What I do like with him, the driving actually is very good. The approach game looks like it's really coming around again. He's extremely accurate off the tee. 24th at TPC River Highlands last year is obviously a positive in terms of correlated form. I just wonder a little bit in terms of the ownership. But the wind, I think it's only natural. You've got to miss greens here. He's going to have to make some putts and that's going to be the question mark for me with Aaron Riegg. He's not the greatest with the flat stick. If he can put well this week, he's going to do very well. And that's really going to be the question of how he performs at the Valspa. There you have it. That's a wrap for this week. I love it. I think we got some good line-ups. I think this should be a competitive tournament this week. We're not done yet. As we pull the draft board down, hit the like button. Give us a follow. It goes a long way. Follow along. If you haven't signed up for Windilly and signed up now, as we mentioned earlier, it's one of our biggest promotions. You follow us for one week. You win. You pay for the year for the most part. And not only that, if you're really playing VFS seriously, you're going to want the additional information. Stephen comes out with an ownership article on Wednesday night that will be one of the more accurate ownership articles in the business. Make sure you understand where these numbers are falling. We'll also give you weather updates, where the wind is lying, if there's a weather edge. I know David mentioned it already on the show, but things change. And so it'll be more accurate by Wednesday night and we will post that in our Discord for you guys to get. There'll also be outright bets and what night that we'll post that you can follow along to. So make sure you sign up and follow along. Before we let you go tonight, we have our first round leaders. David, let's start with you. Who are you looking at in the first round leader market? Yes. What on job will be dropping the latest weather updates right in the lead up to the tournament? It's going to be really important this week in terms of your PGA, DFS lineups. There's, yeah, it could be a huge weather edge developing if it ends up the way that it currently looks. So make sure you're tuned in. Grid that that promo in the description, get 50% off your memberships is the absolute best time to lock in. If you've ever thought about it, now's the time to get in. Save yourself over $200 and make sure you're tuned in with us. At $250, it's just an absolute steal for all sports, premium access and getting all the data, metrics, all the proven winning bets that we put out every single week. So in terms of first round leaders, I've got five this week. I really like Tony female as the first round leader. You can get him at 45 to one. So you're getting a massive boost compared to his outright win odds for the first round leader. You can absolute spike for one round. I think that's great value. Chris and Bizaden, how it's 60 to one. Again, really hot putter. You're getting an inflated number compared to his win odds to spike for one round. Andrew Putnam at 75 to one, Brennan Todd at 80 to one. Again, a couple of accurate golfers who can put the lights out. We haven't mentioned on the show, so I'll throw out a bit of love for Zach Boyer. Zach Boy, you can get at 150 to one for first round leader. Really accurate driver of the golf ball. The approach numbers look really good. He's a great putter on his day. And I think that he's a potential sneaky first round leader at massive triple figure odds. Oh, there you have it. I love it. Spence. How about you? Who's looking at the first round leader market this week? So I don't have an official first round leader, Bizaden yet. I'm trying to wait last minute to get everything finalized. I will say of two of the names that David talked about that are on my short list right now, Brendan Todd, Tony Finau. I thought those were very intriguing numbers to consider. I am not the biggest weather person. I come on the show and say that a lot. I do think for this particular tournament, weather is a lot more impactful than a lot of weeks. So it's kind of just a wait and see game for me when it comes to exact DFS construction and outside of where I found my best values on the board. It's probably going to be more of an internment betting card for me where I try to attack some of these match ups above anything else. I love it. I love it. I got three. Three of my first round leader card, the favorite, the first pick in the draft guest. I like this in Thomas. I think he comes out hot, a good start. You still get three to one for a guy as good as Justin Thomas. I think it's a really good number in this tournament. So I love Justin Thomas, the 31. My two longer shots this week are going to be Sam Ryder. Obviously, a personal favorite of mine guy directed. I think he can come out and have a hot first round at 75 to one. And a guy that wasn't mentioned on the show who I do like a bit for DFS as well come low ownership is Daniel Burger. Now he's a risky play. You know, we don't know how fair for four rounds. He might even withdraw. You know, we'll see. But we know he's very talented and we know he's above the talent of his DFS price tag. And at 75 to one, he's above the talent of what their pricing was a first round leader. So if he finds something, if he plays that we know he's capable of playing, you know, this number is too big for what he's capable of. So this is the type of market where I think it's worth taking a shot on where you can get some upside from him. I will add that all three guys that I put out there are in the morning wave. And there might be an edge to get into those morning guys out there. They typically use a higher percentage of guys becoming your first round leader that start off in the morning. That is a wrap for tonight. Another fun week ahead. We'll see what showdown looks like this week and because there will be a lot of attention on basketball and DraftKings tends to water down their tournaments when they know there's another sport that they're competing with. So we'll see what that looks like. But it should be a fun week. I'm excited to see the finish especially as we mentioned earlier. It's one of the most interesting closing back nines because there's some very difficult holes and anything can happen. Good luck this week. Am I forgetting anything else? I mean, do we want to touch on the merit question? Anybody have intrigue on him this week? Not me personally. I'm not a big Troy Merrick. I typically don't plan. So he's not going to be my player pool. But I love to hear from you guys. The concern for Merrick just always comes down to that part of right. I think that the driving accuracy numbers are going to look really good. The worry is Kenny Parton, which he's not done recently. If he was showing some signs of the pattern, it might be a bit more interesting. And then the approach number is a little bit worrying as well. Tends to be very good with his wedges, not so good with his long lines. So that would be my concern there. But kind of in the Daniel Berger frame of question, just flag that Aaron Wise is back. Obviously, missing for quite some time. Give him a first round leader at 190 to 1. If he was, you know, healthy or in a bit of headspace, I think he'd be a lot shorter than that. So that's kind of an intriguing name to consider potentially if he's any way healthy, he would not be anywhere near 190 to 1. But Joel, Joel, I know that you have some personal contact with Daniel Berger and perhaps some insiders to help his injuries developing. Me, not really. I don't, but I try to talk you up with your inside knowledge here, Joel. You just, this is where you roll with it. Like, yeah, you know, I've been chatting with all his family, I know exactly how he's playing. I appreciate that. I don't know, to be honest, but no, my mom is, is place tennis at the club where his dad's the pro. So she does get a little bit in settlement. They have said that he's been back and playing well, but I don't think that's enough to be substantial, but listen, he has been playing again. And he actually has more durable. I think from what I saw, and I'm guessing, I don't know his actual medical record, but it seems to me, like he's working his way back from rust from so long, not playing unless the injury being the concern and more, he's just got to get back into form of playing a lot of golf. So that's the type of guy that, you know, especially a talent like is that you want to target on the rise. Because, you know, you should be able to get back there. I agree with that. Although some concern, I guess, if your inside knowledge comes from his dad, because parents are always just going to say how well their child's playing, no matter what they're doing. But it looks like see a niche artist, one more thing. And I can only surmise that it's sports. For the ones who work hard to ensure their crew can always go the extra mile, and the ones who get in early, so everyone can go home on time. There's Granger. Offering professional grade supplies backed by product experts so you can quickly and easily find what you need. Plus, you can count on access to a committed team ready to go the extra mile for you. Call clickgranger.com or just stop by. Granger. For the ones who get it done. [BLANK_AUDIO]