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Welcome to Five on the Four, a daily insider show on the Miami Heat and the NBA featuring Ethan Skolnick, Greg Selvander, and Alex Toledo, plus others from the Five Reason Sports Network. Welcome back to Five on the floor, here's today's floor plan. I'm Ethan Skolnick, and following Ethan Jay Skolnick, and Greg Selvander, you can follow at Greg Selvander. And we're going to do something now that we tend to do about three weeks before the end of regular seasons, which is look at where the heat may seed, and where they may want to seed, which may be two different things. So let's get you where they are right now, as we speak, the heat are basically fighting with the Sixers and the Pacers to get the six spot, okay. Now tonight, both the Pacers, and again, you may be listening to this podcast after it, both the Pacers and the Sixers are out west and underdogs. One of them is playing Sacramento, the other is playing the Clippers, I'm not sure which is which. Of course, the Clippers didn't take care of business against the Sixers the other night, but it must be the Pacers that are playing the Clippers, the Sixers are playing the Clippers, the Sixers are playing the Kings, and the Pacers just gave up 150 points to the Lakers. They scored 145, but that wasn't enough. By the way, the Lakers essentially are getting like three free throw attempts for every one that any other team gets is just outrageous, and that was like 43 to 16 in that game against the Pacers. Anyway, the Heat are essentially locked in this six, seven, eight thing with Philadelphia and with Indiana. There are two teams below them that are not going to challenge them for a spot I don't believe. So you have the Bulls, you have the Hawks. It's kind of the teams we thought would be the ninth and 10th teams again. That's what they are, essentially, or somewhere in that range. And so, you know, Miami, again, doesn't have to, I don't think I have to worry much about them coming up. But then there's another question is does Miami actually have a chance to get above the six and the six, seven, eight spots? And I think it's unlikely, but let me just give you the standings on this, Greg. So obviously, Boston's run away, okay, they're 11 ahead of the Bucks. Going into tonight's play, and we'll be recording this on a Monday, the Bucks are three games clear of the Cavs who just got obliterated by Miami, and they're just beat up. I mean, like we talked about Miami's injuries, Cleveland just got Mobley back, but Strusis is still out, Mitchell is still out, and they just had real problems getting people on the floor lately, and they have had a lot of road games. The Cavs are a half game up on the Knicks, who are a half game up on the Magic, who are two and a half ahead of the Pacers, and three ahead of the Heat. So basically, the Magic and the five are three ahead of the Heat. The Knicks are three and a half ahead, the Cavs are four ahead. Before we get to kind of the specifics of the six, seven, eight battles, go through the schedules. Give Miami any chance to get as high as five, which would essentially mean taking out one of those three teams, Cavs, Cavs and Knicks or Magic. I mean, I am the hope trafficker. I am the sunshine pumper, but no, they're not going to do that. This is the part of the season where I look at the loss column and I basically throw the win column out the window, and three games in the loss column with 12 or 11 games to go. That's a lot to make up. So to me, no, they're not getting up as far as I had hoped they would in that four or five match up. But frankly, the more that I look at it and along the theme of the loss column, despite the fact Indiana has one more win, they're locked, 32 losses among the Pacers, Heat and Sixers. They have a real shot at the six-eaten to me. That's where they should be aiming for. That's the perfect match up, whether it be Cleveland, most likely Cleveland, but maybe Milwaukee. For me, that's the clearest path for them as well. I guess you could argue that seven, but then you run the risk of this whole play and scenario breaking down the wrong way. So to me, there's no way that they're getting to four or five. So this is about settling in on that six spot. This is the perfect seed for them, because they squandered a chance at getting home court in the first round. They squandered getting a chance at home court in the first round because they can't win at home consistently. That's the thing. They're basically the same team on the road and at home and that's not supposed to happen. So now you can say, "Well, I guess it doesn't matter because they don't play well at home anyway. So why do you need home court?" It always helps to have it in the postseason. There's more of a disparity even in the postseason than there is in the regular season home versus road. But we can start looking at games, blowing the 20-point lead in New York, the Washington game. Obviously, it's the one that's going to jump out most recently, pissing away that nets game at the end of that road trip after losing to the Knicks because you just didn't have enough healthy bodies. I mean, there's a lot of these. But the reality of it is that if you look at point differential, which I'm going to look at here, net rating is similar, obviously adjusted a little bit differently for a hundred possessions. But I mean, the heat have the worst point differential of the top eight teams. It's hard to make an argument that they really should be much higher, honestly. I mean, offensively, they're the worst of these eight teams. They have not taken advantage. I mean, I don't want to sound too negative here, but they've not taken advantage of a whole bunch of things. One is how they're tied with Philadelphia going into tonight. When Philadelphia's likely MVP at the time has missed what, two months? You have not. I mean, yes, Philly came back to the pack and came back to you, but really, even with all the injuries Miami's had, it hasn't been as cataclysmic as losing Joel Embiid for like two months. So, you know, it's hard to think positively of it when you're tied with Philadelphia and when really you should have passed them. And then you look at Cleveland, who again, Miami's had good success against directly, but the Cavs have been, I mean, the Cavs, even before this latest rash of injuries, they had a portion of the season where they were without two of their top four guys, increasingly, and Miami has not cleared, okay? So in fact, you know, they're far enough back that you and I are both saying even though the Cavs are tumbling, we don't necessarily think Miami's going to catch them. And then think what you will of Julius Randall, but he's important to them and was their second best player. And then they get Ananobi and he gets hurt and comes back and they lost a lot of debt. They lost some depth to injuries in the process. They did bring in Bogdanovitch as a play very well. But again, Miami had opportunities to move up, you know, and catch the Knicks and didn't. So when I say that the sixth spot is the perfect seed for them, I don't want this to be misconstrued. And I see some of this on off the floor as well, the heat planned this, right? Like, this is, I've actually seen a lot of this on prior and off the floor, Greg, like, well, the heat, somebody said today, you can't convince me that the heat didn't, you know, hit guys so that they would be in this spot to drop to six. I don't know way that Machiavellian. I don't think the heat can control outcomes like that, especially this season. I just think this is where it's fallen. And if it's where it falls, like you said, of the bad option of starting on the road, the sixth seed is the best spot to be. It's better than the five spot because, again, if you win that first run series as a five spot, you're going to get stuck with Boston in the second round. This way, you're not. Okay. You get my likely no walkie who I think we all agree is a better matchup for them, at least at that stage. And the seventh spot is a disaster. I'm sorry, because I don't trust his team at home in a one game scenario because I saw it last year, too, Greg, they lost that game, right? Three minutes away from losing as essentially the eight against the nine. So again, it's worked out in a position where they can still salvage it, but it was not planned. And it was not the ideal scenario when we started this season. I thought they could get the three and they just they they punted it away, basically agree. And like, you know, we were talking about this recently and it's a good moment to bring it up. We used to harp on Dwayne for how many games he played and now to have Dwayne weighed 70 games on the on the docket would be beauty. And I lead this team in games played. That is sick. Like to say that out loud is crazy. And I mean, I'm dunking in hot kids. I guess a hockey is missing time now and dunk is missing time. Those two BAM have been the most, I guess, you know, available. But yeah, I mean, it's it's it's been it's been frustrating. It's been frustrating and and you can tell by the fan base, they don't know who's going to be out there. What are we talking 34 starting lineups to this point? And the crazy thing is they're only fourth in the league in most starting lineups or third in the league and most starting lineups. So this is happening to a lot of teams. And to me, it starts to beg the question of if all this rest and load management is actually working, but this is a situation where they had more than one opportunity because Indiana has it had injuries to Halliburton's been in and out, et cetera, they made big trades and shifts to the roster. They had chances to move up in the standings. They didn't capitalize on that. So now six is the best spot, but again, it's relative. All things are relative here. And that's just essentially where we've landed with them. But the crazy thing is, is that the six spot does provide a path. Seven does two, but seven obviously comes with the anxiety of that damn plane. But other than that, just staying out of Boston's bracket to me provides a path. But I go back to what you said at the start of this in terms of net rating and you look at also point differential, nothing in the data. If we're going to let the data win, nothing in the data tells us that this team is about to go on some magical run. But we do have the benefit of hindsight to back up the data. And so that's where I think most fans are hanging their hats right now. And that's a weird spot to be in when you're just kind of hope is not a strategy yet. That appears to be the strategy at this moment. Right. Yeah, exactly. I mean, hope is a strategy again based on the past, but what, what, you know, what is it? I can't even think of the expression right now, but basically the past is not a, is not a, is not a precursor to the future. You just don't know. Okay. Who's going to be healthy enough to carry them the way that Jimmy carried them last year or whether Jimmy's, small technical issue, their issue with my voice as well. We'll get to more of this on the other side of the break before we do want to tell you about a great sponsor of the five reasons sports network. Our friends over at better edge and we talk about better edge all the time. It's with an old better edge.com use a code five RSN or five reasons. 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So learn to make time for what makes you happy with BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com/myamyheat today to get 10% off your first month. Again, that's BetterHelpHELP.com/myamyheat. At Independent Financial, we know you work hard for your business. That's why we work hard for you. Our local bankers are ready to jump in and support your next vision or venture, and we have the resources to make it happen. Ready to get down to business? Let's talk. Learn more at iFinancial.com. Independent Financial, banking for business, banking for life. Member FDIC. All right, let's get to this, okay, because we've established at this point that like the six is the target here. So the eight is the worst possible spot, and the seven is dig yourself out of this again, okay? Because they ain't digging out of eight. I'm sorry, like they're not digging out of eight. All right, so let's go to the schedules, okay? The heat. Where is it home? Golden State is in turmoil right now. Steve Kerr is getting a lot of criticism for not playing Steph Curry enough in critical games. This seems like this two timelines thing with them kind of backfired, and now they had some moments with the coming to the season, but they're fighting for their lives just to stay in the play in, okay, because Houston has been playing well. I'm late, we'll get to that in a second. This should be a win for Miami, honestly, okay, I mean, there's always compelling games between the Warriors and Heat in Miami, always, okay? There was the waiter shot at the end, the wade shot at the end. I remember, you know, Steph kind of had a breakout game against Miami way back, and as did Draymond, but again, this should be a win. Blazer's at home. If that's not a win in the season, yeah, because that will be an embarrassment of epic proportions. The next one too, just add at Washington to that too. Well, I would say that, but you know, Washington is so bad this year, so bad, like we were looking at their clutch numbers on playback, and they are literally a minus 50 net rating and clutch situations this year. They have an 80 offensive rating and more than 130 defensive rating, and that might be the worst in history. Somehow the Heat lost to that team a couple of weeks ago, that you're right, that has to be a win. This really should be three straight wins, honestly, you know, injuries and all the rest is, and I'm not going to, I'm sort of past the point of using injuries as an excuse because injuries are the norm with this team. I mean, it's just, that's just the way it is. Why would I use them? No, I mean, it's, right, is that why I give him credit for that, but we always have, okay, we have enough philosophy as opposed to the Doc Rivers excuse making. That's one of the reasons we revere a SPO, but this offseason, they need to look at everything because this is ridiculous, it's just ridiculous, like it's just, you can't, I mean, when you have guys crawling over, well, Tyler's may not get over 40 games, but you have guys crawling over 50 games or 60 games, I mean, come on. I mean, this is not, you can't tell me this is normal when, again, during the Big Three era, when you had older players on that team beyond the Big Three, okay, who were younger in their prime, Dwayne was kind of on the edge of his prime, those guys played, they played, Shane Batty, they played like 78 games, like this is not, it's not, Ray was available, like this is not normal. Sorry, they got to look at all of it, okay, everything from, you know, the philosophy of it to training, whatever it is, okay, it's got to be looked at, okay, unless this is strategic by them to basically, I don't know why it would be, but it's, it's just, it's got to be looked at. But anyway, these three games should be wins regardless of who they put on the floor. Nick's at home, Sixers at home. Got to get one of them. You got to get one of them, right? Got to get one of them. Okay, so you should be four and one through that stretch at the Rockets. I don't really like that matchup for them. And he's playing. He's playing. Yeah. Right. Right. At the Pacers, always tough and indie, but that's going to be a game you're going to need to get. Got to get it. I mean, you've got, you're right, that has been a struggle historically. It always seems to be like a low scoring game, except like this year's Pacers team plays a little different, but you got to get that one at the Hawks. Got to get that one. Hawks are, Hawks are basically locked into a nine or 10 spot like they're not going to drop out. They can't drop out. Brooklyn's been eliminated. All right. Or they eliminate or close to eliminate. They're right there. And so you've got to get that Atlanta's not really playing for anything. I mean, they're, they're going to be in the play end, but that's it. The Mavericks at home, that'll be it's Alice will be playing for something most likely, right? Yeah. And then two at home against the Raptors who've been eliminated. So those have better grip both. Okay. So on this, I'm saying the Warriors game should be a win, but it's not like it has to be a win. I would say the Blazers game at Washington at Hawks Raptors Raptors that those five, they have to get those five. Okay. Then the Warriors game, they should get, they should get one of the Knicks or Sixers games at home. They, in my view, probably have to get the game in Indiana. It's not going to be easy, but they have to get it because I kind of feel like they'll drop that Rockets game. But anyway, we'll see. We'll see again, who's that would be able to, but right. So if you're at eight, okay, what are they at right now? Thirty or nine. Thirty nine. So that gets them to 47 and 35, which is what I said before the season. Okay. So well, I didn't think it would happen in this way necessarily. I thought they could be a little better, but I kind of, I kind of hedged it somewhat, but 47 and 35. Okay. So let's look at the other schedules here, Pacers at the Clippers tonight, as we're speaking, Clippers are not playing well right now. But again, there's talent on their roster and their playoff team at the Bulls, Lakers at home, Nets, Nets, Clunder at home, that heat game we talked about at Raptors at Cavs, that probably will have some significance to Cleveland. I think we'll see how far they drop. That could be a game that determines whether Cleveland goes is four or five at this point, if Cleveland continues to drop. So that might have some significance and then Hawks at home. It's not the hardest slate. I mean, honestly, as we're speaking here, they need to lose the Clippers tonight to help the Heat because they probably get that game in Chicago. We'll see Lakers at home. Maybe probably we'll see again, they just played a game with 295 points scored. Two Nets games are probably wins for them. Thunder game. It's hard to be a team twice, but to your point, the Heat are gonna have to do it with Toronto too, so they both got to take care of business. Correct. And they've been in that situation before and then like we mentioned that Heat game, it may ultimately, I mean, come down to that Heat game, that game in Indiana, which is the fourth to last game of the regular season. And then the Sixers, again, assuming MB does not back during the regular season. That Kings tonight needs to be a loss for Miami Clippers at home, at Cabs, at Raps Raptors feature prominently in a lot of this stuff, you know, not playing for anything and their stars are hurt or traded. Thunder at home. Yeah. So the Pacers and the Sixers play the Thunder. That's good play the Thunder. Miami's done with them at at at my excuse me, at Miami critical game. We talked about it at the Grizzlies. I mean, Miami, you want to talk about another game that Miami dropped that just come back to haunt right now? I mean, that that Grizzlies roster as currently constituted, they're not, Miami is not the only one. By the way, Milwaukee lost them too, when they didn't have anybody healthy. But at the Spurs, excuse me, I mean, when we could go off or when we could be shut down by them. That's that's four games from the end of the regular season. Pop me just shut them down. Pistons at home, magic at home, that may be a critical game for the Sixers. Magic at home. We'll be talking. And Orlando. Yeah. And Orlando. And then the nets at home again with nothing to play for nets, nets and Raptors are all over these schedules. I, you know, and again, I feel like Miami schedules tougher. See, it flipped. I don't think it was coming out of the All-Star break. Agree. But the Detroit games are gone. They blew one of the Washington games. They got one left. And we talked about it. But any elite teams on the Heat Stocket, unless you want to call the Nix Elite, but they were done with Celtics, done with Milwaukee, right, done with OKC after this, after the game they played, you know, about two, three weeks ago, done with Minnesota, right, didn't beat them either time, done with the Clippers, didn't beat them either time, okay, done with Sacramento. I guess they split with them, right. So, you know, they had the easier schedule, you know, but I think it's caught up a little bit because some of those teams, you know, the Detroit Washington thing is going to be going to be out of here. And again, you look at Miami schedule, the really soft games are, I mean, the Washington game still, as we mentioned, the Blazers game and the two Raptors games when I don't even know who's going to play for Toronto at that stage because, again, they don't have Scotty Barnes, they traded Siakam, and, you know, quickly is playing for contract. But I don't, I'll say this, total, okay. On paper provided that they can get 10 of their top 13 on the floor, Miami should be should be ahead of both these teams. They're just should. I mean, the Sixers, right? Without Embiid. I mean, exactly. That's how you have to plan for it. And I also think we should caveat this by saying that Tyler Hero could be back for some of these games, which could change the trajectory of the team for better or worse. Because you know, when you have to integrate a new player, that sometimes leads to blips on the radar, just as you're going through a season. So that's going to be have to be done on the fly. If he's even back, you know, it likely would be in April, not in the month of March as we close down here. So it's a lot of variables that to me doesn't leave me feeling confident that they're going to stay out of the play and there's a path to it. But I think that this is likely a team that's going to have to scratch, claw their way through another run that's going to be really difficult to get through. And probably seven seed is the real like, you know, if the pessimist says eight and the optimist says six, we're probably landing around seven, right? The one thing is here, it's still in front of them is they still have games left with the Sixers and Pacers. And they still have enough soft games here where they can maybe not play their best. They'll end up in a clutch game, probably with the Blazers at home and just had to find a way to pull it out at the end. And remember, this is the other thing to consider. Some of these teams at the end of the season, soft tank. And I remember seeing it with Utah last year, like Utah got off to that hot start and about a time they came down to Miami at the end of the season, they were in tank mode, okay? And so I just think that you look at some of these, the Nets don't have their draft pick, okay? So that's one thing to consider. So like they, and again, they're heavily featured on the Sixers and Pacers schedules. So they don't have their picks. So there's really no reason for them to try to lose. They're kind of stuck forever now, or at least for a while. The Raptors, I believe, do have their pick. Yeah. Okay. So that's been, I mean, so that's been a help to me, I mean, yes, to close out, right? Because in a certain way, you know, some of these teams, again, players don't tank. I want to make that clear. Players don't tank, churches don't want to tank. Organizations make subtle suggestions, right? Like, you don't really have to play this guy 33 minutes. Do you? Maybe 24. You know what I'm saying? Like this is, this is kind of, so again, if you're, and I hope we're right about that. I should have checked the Raptors pick situation before I came on. And if you're a messiah, like again, why are you pushing your team to go balls to the wall the last two games of the year? And this goes all the way back. There's a history of this with the Heat and Raptors, by the way, that was dramatically important in Heat history, which was they had a game against Toronto at the end of the 2002, 2003 season, and I wrote a column saying they should lose it. And the whole people in the organization called me angrily. We don't do that. They ended up winning the game. And so they ended up dropping from four to five. And if you remember, Chris Bosch went fourth, and Dwayne went fifth, and then they ended up with Chris Bosch later on anyway. And so what they would say to me is, see, that's the karma of basketball. Like you don't cheat the game, right? That's the way the Heat do this. Like they've always said to me, up and down the front office, we suck at tanking. Okay. So their organizational philosophy is not to do that. Okay. Some other organizations philosophy is to do that. So I'll be curious to see again, when you're looking at the Raptors at the end of the year against them, but I just want to mention that the Pistons have some reason to, they play the Sixers late, but it doesn't even matter. Pistons are so bad they're going to lose anyway. But the Nets, yeah, just to clarify, their pick is top six protected or it conveys to San Antonio if outside of the top six. Okay. So they need to be really bad, correct. Correct. As much as they can control it. Well, wait. Okay. So where are they right now? Okay. Right. Now they have 23 wins. Do you know where that would be? You know, just take a guess without looking. I just looked at it. You know where that would be 23 wins? Six. Six. Perfect. Right. So if you're, if you're Toronto, you're watching Memphis because Memphis is at 24 wins. You can't win more games than Memphis then, right? Like that's the whole idea. You got to say behind it because you can't lose enough. I don't think to get behind Charlotte watch, well, you can't get behind Washington, Detroit, San Antonio, Portland, okay, like this, the Raptors are either going to be six or they're going to give away that pick. You're right. So they have to see, we actually discovered something at the back end of this podcast. I don't think anybody's talking about it. If you, right? This is a good discovery. The Raptors have to lose at the end of the season. They got to lose. They got to stay. They got to lose more games than Memphis. Like that's the thing. If that's what you're trying to do. So don't be surprised if, I don't know, it's quickly even healthy now. If some of their better players Bruce Brown playing in. No, he's like the only guy left, right, subtly shut down at the end of the season. That's all. So, you know, and then Miami will lose to some random scrub heat killer in the last game of the year. Some guy we've never heard of from, you know, Division 16, you know, NCAA or something like that who has 12 threes against them. Anyway, prediction before we close and thanks for responses Jersey three or five.com and better edge. You think they're going to be the seven? Is that what you're saying? Probably that that's the move here. I think that they probably know, you know what? I'm sticking with the guts. They're going to get up to six. All they got to do is close that indie game in that six or game. This Toronto discovery, because they have to stay top six, lean me in the other direction. They'll finish six. The heat will finish six. I want to say that too, because they should and I, again, I had them, you know, moving up as far as three when it looked like things were starting to click and just, I don't know, there's been a lot of these seasons where it's like the, we looked back at one game and I, that Washington game is just, it's just the New Orleans game wasn't any better. No, it was, they were never, they got blown out, but I'm talking and New Orleans is a playoff team and they've been hot. Okay. And I know they didn't have Ingram and it's bad. It's the second night of the back to back for New Orleans, all the rest of it. But that watching the game is just the Memphis game blowing lead in New York in the fourth court. I mean, I, there are a lot of those, I, I want to say six, I want to say six. It's going to come down to that game in Indiana. In my opinion, they got it, they got to go into that building and win, which again, over the course of time has been difficult. Some heat teams have pulled it off, big three, lost Bosch and Dwayne and LeBron went nuclear. I mean, Dwayne and LeBron, it walking through that door. So we got to see, we got to see who, you know, Jimmy Babb, who's it going to be, Tyler? Maybe by then, right? We're, I mean, that's pretty close to the end of this. Well, where are we at? He might play by that one. I agree. So they got to get, they got to get that one. They got to get that one, I think, to be able to get the six. And I just, I'm leaning seven, I'm leaning seven. You're probably right. I don't want to be because I would like this run to go a little bit longer. And then if we have a seven, eight and Kyle Lowry decides to shoot the ball in Miami for a change and hits four, three knocks them out of the back, we're not podcasting for three months. Thanks to Greg. We'll be back with coverage of heat warriors. Just get the six seed. That's it. Get the week off. Get the week. That's crucial for a team where nobody plays. Get the week off. Let Jimmy, like if Kevin loves back, let him rest, let Tyler rest, let them all rest. Get the week off or get the few days off, whatever it is. All right. Have a good day. Thank you for listening to the five on the floor on the fibers and sports network. After all, someone needs to listen to my dad. When everyone is on the same page, getting things done at work is easy. No matter what you do or what industry you're in, how you communicate is key. Everything you type is equally important to collaboration and Grammarly can help. Think of it as your AI writing partner, empowering you to communicate effectively and efficiently so you can make a bigger impact in the workplace. 96% of Grammarly users say it helps them craft more impactful writing. But as the gold standard of responsible AI, Grammarly is your secure AI writing partner that allows your team to make their point and move faster. 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