So, you know, that was gold was maybe 1150 then and it went down like 50 of the neck that next Sunday night and it's pretty ugly. But we hung in there. And the reason why, why my faith never wavered was the man man. I mean, it is what it is. We're now 37 and a half trillion dollars in debt. It's not getting any better carry this last burst in gold up through 2500 through 2600 began about three three and a half weeks ago when the monthly budget deficit for the US government for August was released and it was from month three hundred eighty billion dollars. I remember you're listening to carry Lutz's financial survival network where you get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the financial survival network now more than ever go to financialsurvivalnetwork.com and get your free newsletter and gift financial survival network now more than ever. And welcome you are listening to and watching the financial survival network on your host carry Lutz. Well, it is now October 9th and price of gold looks like it's getting ready to spike again. But more importantly, the price is silver. We were at thirty two almost thirty three dollars silver. Let's get to the absolute insider take on this. Craig Hebbke TF metals report.com is with us now. If you got a question, comment for Craig, myself, email kl@carrylutz.com Craig. So where are we now? Well, we're eight for now, at least we're just at another higher low part of the chart. A bull market, particularly in the COMEX gold and silver futures is almost always defined by higher lows and higher highs where you just kind of stare stepping up. And that's kind of where we are now. And not only in gold or in silver, but also the mining shares are doing the same thing. We'll see where we go from here. I'm optimistic that we can take another run up before the end of the year. But at the same time, if you had told me back in January, with all that we knew that was coming, everybody was factoring in six or seven rate cuts on New Year's Eve last year. And we knew that wasn't going to be the case. So we figured it was going to be kind of a tough year, at least to start. It wasn't. So if you had told me back, first of January, that even if we ended up here near 2600, we'd have a 30% year. I'd have said that's a okay. And in terms of silver, I was looking at a chart earlier this week that Ronnie Sturvella put out that showed silver gains or losses every year since 2009, since the great financial crisis when everything changed across all currencies, all nine major fiat currencies. And one thing that stood out to me is the three prior periods where silver had a really big year. All three of those were followed by another big year. So the most recent being 2019 and 2020. And so silver is up by the same percentage as gold, leaves me kind of optimistic that we'll be able to extend this into 2025. I think so, huh? So hold the course, huh? Well, I mean, that's been the case. I mean, I have people on my site. I were getting this three, four years ago, but I still get this occasionally. People on my side, they're like, thank you for getting me to stay with this. Because man, it was a pretty lonely sojourn back in 2013 and 14. I remember the summer of 2015. It was a Saturday, it was a weekend Wall Street Journal. Did they even do that anymore? Kerry, I don't even know. Wall Street Journal, the weekend edition. That was like, that was like a fun show for a while. They used to put out an actual hard copy. Yeah. And my, I was staying in a hotel, is at a wedding with my in-laws and my father-in-law comes up and slaps it down in front of me because there's a article there about gold is just a pet rock. And the price wasn't it? That's what, what's his name? Jason Zweig. Buffett said, we spend all this money digging out out of the ground. Then we dig a new hole, bury it, and we spent all this money guarding it, right? Right. Right. Barbara Sirelick. So, you know, that was gold was maybe 1150 then, and it went down like 50 that next Sunday night and it's pretty ugly. But we hung in there. And the reason why, why my faith never wavered was the man. Man, I mean, it is what it is. And we're now 37 and a half trillion dollars in debt. It's not getting any better. Kerry, this last burst in gold up through 2500 and through 2600 began about three, three and a half weeks ago when the monthly budget deficit for the US government for August was released. And it was for a month, 380 billion dollars. I remember. And that's when, you know, I was almost like, the thing I keep saying in interviews, it's like that grabbed hedge fund managers and, you know, the home office, multi-billion dollar, and just kind of shook them by the lapel and said, you see this? 380 billion in a month. You know, another chart from Ronnie that's a bank of America research. The most recent one they did, 71% of global and financial advisors have less than 1% or 0% of their clients assets allocated to the precious metals in the mining sector. 71%, another 24% have less than 5%. So this, I mean, it won't take much. And that's why, again, the math is a math. I feel the sector is grossly under invested for the protection it provides. And that's why we just keep hanging in there. And the crypto, it's kind of serving a similar function here. Bitcoin, while we're speaking, I hate to give Bitcoin prices because it's so volatile, they changed so quickly. But right now, for this particular instant in time, it's 62,185 bucks. You know, for something that really has no intrinsic value, it has a lot of value. It does. I'm sitting there doing the math. What is that? My cost basis on the little bit of Bitcoin I have is about 620 bucks. So I'm trying to do the math on what is that 10, 100,000 percent? I don't know, whatever it is. And so I don't, and I never understood this thing about, you can only own one versus the other. They mean I've never made any sense. They're alternatives to your fiat dollar and why would you know, people, it's like the central banks we've talked about before. This will be a third year in a row of record, global, central bank, gold demand. But what are they doing? They're taking their dollar reserves that they've accumulated and they're diversifying some into gold. Well, that's all I've ever suggested for the individual person. Take some of your dollar reserves and diversifying a goal. That's, I mean, it's not complicated. If people like automatically bought gold, it would force the world's central banks and the world's governments to stop what they are doing. Yeah. Think about that. If every person out there had a gold in silver account and they added to it monthly, because they wouldn't be able to control the prices then, right? Because you'd have worldwide demand swapping the algorithms, basically, right? Yeah. So it would legitimately price these metals at their true worth in fiat currencies. And then, you know, the canary in the gold mind, the cat would be out of the bag. They wouldn't be able to hide it, right? Yeah, right. That, you know, you think about who hates gold the most, right? The bankers and the politicians. And why? And I shouldn't just say bankers, bankers, politicians and anybody in finance that benefits from the unlimited creation of the dollars and the debt from which the dollars come. And if that's the system that your company, that your net worth, whatever relies upon, you're going to bash all the alternatives all day long. And that's what they do. You'll never hear anybody talk about this kind of stuff on CNBC, because they're because dipped by the financial services, mutual funds, and everybody else, right? Them and be so armor. I mean, you say they stop taking drugs and buy gold, right? You know, that would be enough now to the system. Stop taking drugs by precious metals. It's really, and really, that's a good, good analogy. It's really about the same thing. Here's what I gave you something, though, that I think is a really good, present example for people understand. Even within this pricing scheme that relies upon all these alchemic alternatives, you know, futures contracts and unallocated accounts and ETFs and all this stuff that's gives you exposure to the price, but not the real thing. Even within that pricing scheme, we can look at, and this is just something that I think people can really grasp. You know, the 400 ounce bars of gold, the London bars, right? Everybody has seen those things. They see someone holding one. It's like, oh, wow, the racks of them, you know, in the vaults. 400 ounces is a London good delivery standard. When Nixon closed the gold window back, you know, what are now? 53 years ago, right? Yeah, it's hard to believe. One of those bars was exchangeable or cost $14,000. Okay. 25 years later, in the late 90s, one of those bars cost $110,000. Well, as the spot price of gold moved up through $2,500 about six weeks ago, worth a million, 100 times 400. One of those bars is suddenly a million dollars. What better illustration? Because the gold is just sat there, right? That bar from 1971 is still that bar. You can't make it, you know, they argue about your house or, you know, the, the adjustments, uh, one of the, um, wow, the, oh, my senior moment, the, the CPI, the terms that you notice, you know, to say that the not holistic adjustments, what's the word that they, any, the tonic adjustments, there's no hedonic adjustment to a bar of gold, right? Here's your bar. Same bar from 1971, but the price is a million dollars rather than 14,000. Does that, what better example or illustration is there of the destructive power of the FEMOP fiat devaluation in that? And that's why you own gold, you know, Ludwig van Mises said only government can take a, uh, valuable commodity like paper and make it worthless by putting ink on it. I love it. I love it. You know, um, it's kind of wild. And, uh, you might have to dust off that bar because you haven't done anything with it. It's just been sitting there collecting dust. Um, Craig, I don't know if you ever went to the Federal Reserve's gold vault, uh, but to have a tour there, I did it like 15 years ago. I wrote about it on, uh, on the site on financial survival network, but, uh, you know, there was all this gold. Well, one thing that impressed me was that in order to handle the gold, you had to put these magnesium tips on your shoes because it covered it because if you drop the bar, it would crush your foot. Uh, they had to wear these special things, but, uh, you know, it's just, it's kind of shocking, but it isn't because look, the man's nature is always to try to get something for nothing. Right. You know, some people call it investing in the stock market, but they want to like create all this money, give it to people, give everybody what they want, whatever it is. No matter how stupid it is, if it's a degree in puppetry, an advanced degree in puppetry or, uh, you know, medieval, uh, French lesbian studies, whatever it is, they want to give it to everyone. And when money was real, they couldn't, but now that money doesn't really exist only in your mind, only in the bank of a computer on the disc, now they can do this, Craig. You know, it's, it's, it's alchemy, like you said, financial engineering at a level that nobody in their right mind would have ever believed. Yeah. You know, and I mentioned that math, you know, the, the certainty of the math, the compounding of the math, right? The compounding, you know, when we went 25 years, even under this pricing scheme from basically 10,000 to 100,000, another 25 years from 100,000 to a million, another 25 years, we'll be talking 10 million, right? Okay. $25,000 goal. And again, what that means, I don't know if the system's going to continue for a 25, another 25 years. I don't know, no, but we'll make another 25. I have no idea. While we're in this kind of crack up boom phase that you're describing, there are going to be all kinds of get based financial assets that go great. You know, I make all kind that their gains exceed the rate of inflation, the rate of devaluation, right? So nobody should ever like cash out everything and put it into gold or silver or something like that. Because you can't know when the thing, you know, finally implodes under its own weight and their opportunity costs along the way of waiting. But what you definitely have to do is invest yourself in a way that your gains keep up with inflation and gold just in that, you know, segment of your portfolio, that part of your asset allocation certainly has proven that over time. Oh, there's no question. And it's not like where the stop clock brigade here, you know, it's not like we're one, we're right every once every 10 years. There's an ongoing process. Like you said, it's been going on since 1913, but really picked up steam in 71 when the gold window was closed when when the dollar broke its final connection to gold. And it's pure math. It's really that simple and they can they can slow it down. Maybe they can hide it. Maybe, you know, we have these busts, these financial crashes, which we're probably due for one now, because every 17 years in real estate, you get a crash, right? We're probably due for one now. And certainly the stock market, we're probably due. And then we begin the process anew, right? That is definitely all that. Yeah, the cycles that are definitely in play. The only thing you wonder about is how long, you know, the plates can keep spinning and they can keep the balls in the air. You know, when when you have everything run by computer, right? I mean, you look at like, for example, look at the VIX index and how many buy programs, automated HFT algorithmic programs are based off of that. If the VIX is going down, then risk is coming out. So we should be in risk assets. Well, then if you can just simply control the VIX, then you can get the computers and do what you want them to do. Yeah. No, that I mean, not that so. That's it. I like to think, I mean, look, I'm the guy I probably called 10 of the last one stock market crashes. And so I'm not, I just don't, I just prefer not to fiddle around with it. You know, and you know, carry everybody that I should, I don't want to phrase this. There are so many interests aligned in keeping that afloat. I mentioned CNBC in the line, you know, and how they're always on the line. Now, maybe it's good for ratings every once in a while. Market crash. Join us tonight at seven o'clock, you know, that kind of thing. But everybody's got their, their beak in the trough. And they have an interest in keeping it going, you know, all the way down to the economic data that we get. You know, it's all designed and put out to influence the, it's like all of those job report Fridays that were all magically beat expectations. Wow. There are all these different seasonal adjustments and the like excerpt, surprised, right? And they come back and then they come back last month and they say, you know, well, we overstated things by 815,000. Well, do they then, you know, do they then, have they then overstated what the stock market did on those 12 Fridays or that, do we get to reprice gold for all the beatings that it took on those Fridays on the fake news? No. So everything, there's so many forces aligned to keep the plate spinning. They don't really want to get in the way of that freight train. And you don't want to completely avoid, you know, certain sectors because you're just waiting, you know, you don't know when the end is coming. All you can do is prepare for it. And that's, you know, where gold silver to have a part in your portfolio. Hey, I'm looking at, I like to follow the housing stocks because to me, they know what interest rates are going to do before the Fed knows, you know, you just look at them and guess what? I looked at five or six of them. They're all trading at or near their all time highs. Let our tall brothers, KB homes, you know, the whole group is trading at these all time highs. And I can only mean that interest rates are going down. And what happens when the next 50 basis plate? Yeah, rate cut. The next 50 basis go. And then, you know, the market will go crazy, right? Or maybe it will get to the plate where it doesn't care anymore, where it sees the underlying collapse that we're approaching. I mean, at some point, the plates, you know, I would say in '07 and '08, the plates were all spinning, but the guys spinning them had to sneeze at a couple and hit the ground. You know, what happens when that guy has a heart attack this time and all of the plates come crashing down? Yeah. Yeah. That moment will certainly come. And then where do we go from there? I mean, look at China, you know, China rolled out their monetary bazooka two weeks ago and everything shot up some of the biggest days in Chinese stock market ever. And then they closed for a week for their, you know, their glorious anniversary of the founding and the, you know, the communist. Where did you have celebration looking on the hill? And when they reopen, boom, it goes right back down 10 percent. And now they're talking about, what are they going to do this next? We know they're currently there's some big meeting announcement coming on Saturday. What are they going to do even more? So you get into that point where the Minsky moment, right? Isn't that the Minsky moment? Right. Yeah. And you're kind of just pushing on a string at some point, you know, you just, you can't keep up. And then that will come, that'll come here as well. It's just got, you know, it doesn't matter who wins the election, they're going to be in person up sledding next year. You know, that you think about here, even in what was allegedly this strong economy, the US fiscal year just ended on September 30 with pretty close to a $2 trillion annual deficit. What's going to happen in the next fiscal year in a contracting economy where government revenues and risk tax receipts or anything else fall by a trillion dollars. I think our mitt spending picks up with stimulus and we're starting suddenly you're running three trillion. Four five. Yeah, exactly. Well, I did a useless exercise just for the thought of it because I had some time to kill. I had chat GPT balance the budget without a tax increase. And I said, give me a list of 100 agencies, we could just shutter and never even know they were closed. And some of these agencies, Craig, you never even heard of them. They were so obscure. Like the, I can't even remember them now. This is a few months ago. But hey, if Elon Musk gets in there and he actually can do anything, this Elon Musk will be the equivalent of the Grace Commission. Remember the Grace Peter R. Grace from the Grace Chemical Company, which was long since acquired? And in the 90s, they had the Grace Commission and he showed them how to balance the budget. But you know, you know, how far that went? Yeah, it's like, yeah, like, get real here. Who's paying our salary? It's not you, Grace. Right. It's these interests, big pharma, big chemical, big oil, big agra, you know, all these things. Hey, I want to touch on one thing, though, that I know you were concerned about. And that made me think twice that maybe this election might have a little more significance. I'm not talking about the economy. I'm not talking about the dollar interest rates, whatever. RFK Jr, deplorable character person. I know, I know him personally despise him. But he did one thing, which was make America healthy again, that we are the most unhealthy nation the world has ever known, and that this is a national crisis. So for that alone, I can forgive him all his sins and they are manyfold, you know, because the health, all the gold, all the money in the world isn't going to do anything for you if your health is down the tubes, right? Yeah, you know, I'll carry this won't surprise you, but I'll turn this back to gold and the fed as well. You know, anybody could pull up all the charts and show income inequality and wealth inequality all began to verge back in 1971. And what happened in '71? Again, they're wealthy have gotten wealthier, you know, the old line from you to God, part two, 1988, the rich stay healthy and the six day poor, right? And it's just the gap just keeps widening. And so it is the lower income people that don't have any money that have lost their good jobs. So they're working three part time jobs. You can see that in the jobs report. They're doing everything they can to make ends meet. And they're shopping and eating the crap that's sold by Dollar General and the, you know, and in the grocery store that most everything that's got all the seed oils and the preservatives and all that stuff because they can't afford to eat any better or they live in the city and they don't have any alternatives to eat any better. And so they just get fatter and sicker and more drug dependent care. I'll give you one more thing everybody they talk about. Oh, it's just so great. Look how great the economy is yesterday. Like this haircut. I just got it. I just got a haircut yesterday. I'm driving through kind of a neighborhood to get to where the place is where the guy cuts my hair and all of a sudden there's just far after car bumper to bumper parked along the side of the road. I'm like, this is weird. And I'm like, and then I see a church coming up about a block away. I'm like, she's who died must be some, you know, big shot funeral here. No, I get to the church, food pantry this way. Oh my God. There must have been in this serpentine thing, a hundred cars wrapping around the neighborhood going up one block over one and back up all to just get in. So I'm like, holy crap. So I can come back to my house the same way. And there's still a hundred car that may be down a few 75. Wow, full of mainly single women, you know, moms that, you know, just trying to feed their family that kind of stuff. I'll just wait just begging for, you know, what? $20 worth of groceries. Yeah, gone. This is robust. Everything's great. Give me break. Yeah, I'll just lies. I mean, when you see that, it really brings it home. And like you said, people running three jobs, you know, to try to make ends meet. And oh, but the employment numbers are great. Crap. Don't be happy. Stock market went up 1% today. Just makes me sick. Yeah, well, hey, we'll leave it on that note. But, you know, make sure you go over to Craig's site T F metals report.com and get to subscribe to it because I think with inflation, I don't think you've inflation adjusted your subscription prices. Starbuck's just raised the price of my damn latte from 562 to 637. There you go. Well, about about two of those lattes with tax will get you a month at T FMR. How's that? And so, so at least there is a place on this planet where inflation is not driving up the cost. So T F metals report.com. And I love the site. I love your commentary, your podcast. We've known each other over 10 years now. And we're the profits, you know, with an F and with a pH, right? More pH than than F. I get that. But anyway, you get it. I love it, Matt. Hey, so go over to go over to Craig's site. Make sure you subscribe. Tell him we sent you. And if you got any questions, comments, K L at carrylets.com. You'll have a link to Craig's site in the show notes. This interview on financial survival network.com. Sign up for your free newsletter. Craig, we'll talk to you again real soon. Be well. All the best, my friend. Thanks for listening to carrylets's financial survival network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to financial survival network.com Financial Survival Network. Now more than ever.
