The Interview focused on the intersection of financial indicators and their implications for the upcoming election and broader economic trends, with Kerry Lutz and Eric Hadik discussing the correlation between the dollar's movement and political administrations, as well as the potential long-term effects on interest rates and inflation. Eric provided an analysis of the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's rate cut, projecting a trading range for bonds and notes, and highlighted a historical 17-year cycle that may indicate a recession in 2025. The discussion also covered the near-term outlook for precious metals, forecasting a rally into late October or early November, and examined the generational cycle of currency wars, predicting significant gains for precious metals over the next couple of years.
Additionally, the conversation touched on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ether, and the anticipated market peak in late 2024, with a subsequent sell-off expected in 2025-2026, supported by historical patterns and technical indicators. The meeting concluded with a reference to InsiideTrackTrading.com for further insights.
Find Eric here: insiidetracktrading
Find Kerry here: FSN and here: Inflaton.Cafe
we have encountered a recession and the 15th time is in 2025. So, and that is 17 years from the 2008 Great Recession, which was 17 years from 1991, the recession that really doomed George H.W. Bush's reelection. And you can keep going back. That 17 year cycle has been uncanny in how accurate and consistently it has timed recessions. And so I am looking again for that to be the case in 2025. So that would certainly fit with interest rates, seeing another downside wave and bonds and notes seeing another rally in the first half of next year. You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else. To thrive in today's trying times, you need the Financial Survival Network, now more than ever. Go to financialsurvivalnetwork.com and get your free newsletter and gift, Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Gary Lutz. Well, we got Eric Haddock back and you find him at in-aside track trading. That's I-N-S-I-I-D-E tracktrading.com. And well, we're going to be talking about the forecast for the election as far as indirect financial indicators are concerned. We'll talk about gold, record prices, and we'll talk about other commodities, interest rates, the dollar, all that good stuff that I know you've been waiting to hear. Eric, welcome back. It's great to have you on. So you told me a few cycles ago that you knew that Trump was going to lose because the dollar was going higher. The dollar has been going lower. Can we infer the inverse from this, Eric? Well, one of the correlation that you're referring to, and I should also say, thanks for having me back. It's great to see you here again. But the correlation that I have talked about has more to do with the dollar's movement within a particular administration as opposed to leading into it. And so what I had, this was even going back into 2014, 2015. And what my work was showing was that the dollar, I was expecting it to keep in early 2017, and then sell off for a year or two. And that was leading me to believe that the Republican candidate, even before it became confirmed that it was going to be Trump, that the Republican would win. And I guess I should even elaborate on the correlation before getting into the competing candidates and parties. But what I have seen over the last 30 or so years is that on the whole, the dollar tends to trend higher during Democratic administrations and lower during Republican administrations. And I'm not even necessarily trying to make any indictments about that or any political talk about it. It's just that's what I have seen. And in one respect, it's not that surprising because you go back to really when this correlation seemed to take hold. And in the early to mid 80s, when the dollar had been very strong, and then you had, I guess it was 85, I believe, the Plaza Accord. And even before that, you had the administration really starting to talk down the dollar. It was just becoming too much of a burden or its strength and that impact on import export and other competing currencies in the forex. And so it was early on in my trading career. And I can recall seeing James Baker on the television. He'd get on whatever talk show would have him every other day, and he'd be talking down the dollar. And eventually, the dollar did really take a hit, went through a sharp selloff from 85 and 87, started to accomplish what that administration was hoping for. And you've seen the underlying mentality that was driving that tends to run in those parties. And so during Republican administrations, you often have the dollar trending lower, which helps with exports, because a country that is a client or a buyer of our goods, if they can get them for a lower amount once you've done the foreign exchange in there, then it encourages and increases those exports. And conversely, during Democratic administrations, you've seen the dollar trend on balance higher. So all that to say, I went back to 2016, 2017. I know I had that discussion with several people leading into that election. I think you were one of them. But then also into 2020, 2021, when I was seeing the opposite. Well, right now, a lot of my work is showing that the dollar should put in a pretty significant bottom in the next month or two. And then see some consolidation and potentially some upward movement, although from a much broader perspective, I don't think it's heading into any sort of bull market. So if you're going to try and parse the, read the tea leaves out of that and parse whatever information you can where that correlation is concerned, that would certainly seem to lean a little bit in favor of a Democratic administration coming up. Well, it's already in existence, but starting to come up in the future administration. But I don't see a strong enough correlation and or expectation where the dollar is concerned for me to have a very high confidence level in that association. I think that it's again, it may lean a little bit towards Democrat, but not enough that I would make any convincing conclusions off of that particular correlation. So you're not betting on it in other words, right? Yeah, and I should just taking it down to the dollar itself, getting beyond the political or election discussion. I think that the dollar continues to go through what I believe is a major topping process. And I've discussed this in a generational cycle perspective. When I discussed the 40 year cycle of currency war and why I thought that 2016 to 2021 was going to be the culmination of the latest 40 year cycle and the 2022 would begin the next 40 year cycle. And in that next cycle, I thought it was when you would see the dollar really start to change its status, its value. And you've got certainly the BRICS nations and a lot of other competing nations trying to help usher that in where the dollar loses at least a little bit of its global dominance and its other currencies or basket of currencies begin to play a larger role in international commerce. And so I think that the dollar is going through that major transition doesn't mean that it collapses at any time in the foreseeable future. But it also was able to kind of validate that analysis with an entire technical scenario and set up that I've described for my readers over the last six to eight months. And it would be pointless to even try and describe it all verbally and it's laid out. But the dollar at is some real strong confirmation to that argument at the end of August. And it looks like it's set up to do the same thing at the end of September, where it's just further confirming a major top. But at the same time, those signals are lagging and confirming. So they often get triggered right near an initial bottom. So on an intermediate basis, it wouldn't surprise me to see the dollar bottom between now and early November and then enter this consolidation and or rebound that I was just referring to for several months. So I think from a very broad perspective, the dollar is going through this shift. And that's going to have long term implications and ramifications on just about everything in our economy, from interest rates to future inflation. But that we're nearing the culmination of the latest leg down in the dollar. Okay, so not a great and not the best election predictor, for sure. But no, no, I would. I high level of confidence right now. Okay. All right. So this leads us to interest rates. I think you would said the last time that they were pretty much intermediate high, perhaps. What are you thinking now that the feds cut 50 basis points? Yeah, as far as as far as bonds and notes, which trade inversely to interest rates, I had been thinking that we would see a pair of highs in early August and early to mid September. And yes, the fit kind of validated that by cutting rates half points. And that was on a intermediate basis by the rumor cell, the fact in bonds and notes where they peaked right as that was occurring. So it was the fundamental, finally confirming and fulfilling what the technicals in the price action had already anticipated. And so then the market and the traders kind of sit back and say, okay, that's nice what you did for me yesterday. What are you going to do for me now? And so any additional upside in bonds and notes is probably out a little bit on the horizon. But I know today, I think that some more howls speak coming out. And tomorrow you've got their favorite PCE report coming out. So there certainly could be a couple near term things to move to markets a little bit. But I think that bonds and notes are probably going to stay below their the mid September highs for a month or so. And see perhaps even a little more downside in early October, but all within a trading range, a multi month trading range. And what I've described it at from a wave perspective, is that I thought the entire move up in bonds from October of 2023, which is when they set their their lowest low of the entire sell off. Into August September of 2024, that rally in bonds was what I think is an a wave of a larger magnitude, ABC upside correction. And so putting that into English, you've seen your entire decline, a pretty clear five wave decline from middle 2020 into October of 2023. And usually when you have waves that unfold in five waves, that's usually an impulse wave, or which means it's in the direction of the primary trend. And then you'll see a three wave correction going the opposite way. So in this case, a correction is actually to the upside. And so the first leg of that correction, the wave was what we saw from October of last year into August September of this year. Now we're in the midst of a likely B wave. And then I expect to see a another rally in bonds and notes. So some additional interest rate cutting out towards the end this year and into early 2025. But that also corresponds very closely to several occurrences of a very uncanny 17 year cycle that I've described that has among other things has timed. If you go back to the founding of the US and follow this 17 year cycle forward 13 of the 14 times that that 17 year cycle has hit, we have encountered a recession. And the 15th time is in 2025. So and that is 17 years from the 2008 Great Recession, which was 17 years from 1991. The recession that really doomed George H. W. Bush's reelection. And you can keep going back that 17 year cycle has been uncanny in how accurate and consistently it has timed recessions. And so I am looking again for that to be the case in 2025. So that would certainly fit with interest rates, seeing another downside wave and bonds and notes, seeing another rally in the first half of next year. Interesting. Interesting. All right. So gold, we've seen nothing but new highs as far as the eye can see. Are we getting to an intermediate high or a longer term high? What do you what do you thoughts? I think that on a near term basis, I've been looking at this late September period for excuse me for an initial intermediate high. And one of the things that I've been watching pretty closely is more specific price action and silver has been the one that has given me the clearest signs of where and how a peak would be more likely. And ever since the early August low in silver, one of my primary trend indicators. And it also really helps pinpoint where corrections are culminating and where a primary trend is is taking control again. And so in early August, you had one of these signals in silver, and it told me to look for a rally back up to its May peak. And so that has been one of the things that I've been that's been governing my overall outlook for gold and silver. And along with that, silver has had some very consistent multi month cycles that helped pinpoint that the mid May peak in silver. While at the same time, gold was showing it was diverging and should continue higher. But the next phase of those cycles in silver comes into play in November. So it wouldn't surprise me to see golden silver set initial high in here, see some consolidation and pull back, but then enter one more rally into late October, early November. And that kind of goes along with the dollar outlook. Although there are not always a 180 degree inverse correlation, depending on what is driving the moves in each one. So I think that we are on a near term basis coming near a peak of get some price targets that are pretty close to to being attained in gold and silver. But there's there remains the potential for a another up leg after a after brief pullback. And even there's some key indicators that are are beginning to form where a pullback low and a chance to add to long positions would be the ideal scenario. So from a technical technical perspective, it's all shaping up. But also that also feeds into that much broader generational cycle I was talking about with this 40 year cycle of currency wars. And I did a series of articles back in 2014, 1516, and then updated them in 2021, 22. But they were showing me, in fact, the title of a few of them was called the golden year. And why I thought 2016 would start a whole new bull market in gold. And at the first phase of it would be the culmination of that previous 40 year cycle from 2016 to 2021. But that that was also kind of a precursor to what you would see in in metals and other currency alternatives, including digital Bitcoin cryptocurrency during the next phase of that 40 year cycle beginning in 2022. So gold fulfilled that surge in 2016 to 2020, 2021 saw a decent correction. And then it signaled a multi year bull market to start in late 2022. So from a broader perspective, we're still in the midst of that. And I still think there is significant more upside over the next one to two years. But that is, as I said, the the broader overarching outlook for precious metals. Okay, interesting. Hey, speaking of cryptocurrencies, what's in your crystal ball there? I have been thinking that Bitcoin and Easter would wait until November to set a a final corrective low and put that in a little bit of context back in first quarter of this year. Bitcoin and Easter build a very relatively consistent 16 month cycle. And when they've only been doing this for a few years, you don't have quite the history and consistency. But on a limited basis, they had been adhering pretty closely to a 16 month cycle. And overriding that was a four year cycle. And so I was looking for a multi month top in mid March of this year. And then a future future peak in the second half of 2025. And in between there, I thought that we would see a decent sell off into a pair of cycle lows that I had first in September of 2024. And then in November of 2024. And at that point is when my price indicators kick in. And when I start to look at them, since the cycles provide a backdrop or a foundation, but I'm not going to trade directly off of them. And so we saw the salt sell up into September to fill the lot of downside objectives, help some key support levels. And those cryptos have been rebounding since then. But as long as they do not turn their weekly trends up, which could still not happen for at least another two weeks, because there's a series of things that have to occur for that to for that trend indicator completely reverse. As long as that does not occur, I think that you'll see them head back towards their lows and wait until November to set a more significant bottom. Well, that's just around the corner. I'm looking today. Bitcoin's finally broke 65,000 level it hasn't been at for a while. So this is interesting developments there. What else any other markets we should be looking at now? Really just mainly the equity markets, which going back into the discussion of that 17 year cycle. And let me put a little side note here too. Your listeners can also go to 17 year cycle.com. That is a secondary website that I've had for about 15 years. And it's also accessible through our main site inside track trading.com. But I have archived a collection of articles dating back to even 2007, 2008. But many more recent and very current ones describing how the stock market has here so closely to this same 17 year cycle. And it is, it's funny enough that in the years since I've been writing about it, more scientific evidence has come out. Some of it just in the last couple years that there is a very strong solar storm secondary cycle of roughly 17 years. The one that the cycle that's usually recognized for sunspots is about an 11.2 year cycle. And then funny enough, several years ago, there started to be more research and papers written about a broader, great conveyor belt of the sun cycle that was roughly 40 years in duration. So you have this 40 year cycle also validated by swings in solar magnetivity and ultimately geomagnotivity. And then more recently, they've discovered this roughly 17 year cycle. But even before that, there were scientific papers describing how there is a magnetic interplay between the earth and the sun that impacts so much of our lives and that that is a roughly 17 year cycle. So these things have certainly validated with the markets we're showing. And I suppose if you even want to look at your longest period, Cicada, which came back into existence in the Midwest this year, they are also a 17 year cycle. So something drives them underground for 17 years and then something at the culmination of that 17 year cycle prompts them to come back above ground. But the stock market has it here to that same cycle. And again, I wrote about this quite extensively in 2007, why I thought that the latter part of 2007 would mark a major top. And if it was consistent with past phases, that it would trigger a one to three year 35 to 50% drop in the stock market. And that's exactly what we saw starting in late 2007. And you can go back and look at 1990, 1973, 1956, 1939. And each time you had very significant peaks and selloffs in the stock market. And the next phase of that 17 year cycle, as far as a peak is concerned, is in late 2024 right now. And the corresponding selloff would be expected to be seen in 2025 and possibly stretching into 2026. So it's another very significant application of that cycle. But there's a lot of other technicals and corroborating cycles that are reinforcing the validity or the potential of that cycle coming to fruition. So many of the times you've seen those corresponding peaks occur during July and October of the related 17 year cycle. And so I was looking for something similar this year. And the NASDAQ 100 and a lot of your tech stocks peaked in July. And if it's anything like 2007, you get a peak in July, a selloff into August, and then a rebalmed in October. Well, that's exactly what we've seen in the markets. So they're adhering pretty closely to what is a pretty long term and an often obscure cycle that not many people are paying attention to. But there's a reason to be expecting stocks to peak in this somewhere between the late September and early November timeframe. But there's even more specific cycles and timing indicators that are honing when that peak is most likely. Well, we don't have much time left in the year, right? It's probably going to come sooner rather than later, won't it? Yeah. Yeah. So I mean, we've got the three months left to the year. So after the peak, what happens then? We're going to crash decline. Gradual decline, what do you think? So I'm saying you related to that, you should see a good selloff in 2025, possibly stretching into 2026. But as the peak is taking form, that's when the market starts to clarify and hone on the outlook on multi-week and multi-month basis. So it's as much how a top is formed as it is when it is formed. And so the pattern leading into that will give me a lot more specifics to work off of. And I'll be publishing that in my Inside Track newsletter and weekly relay updates. But right now, it still is in the topping phase. So those specifics haven't completely fleshed out. All right. Well, I think we got a pretty good overview of the markets. And if you want to get a more intensive one, then you got to go over to inside tracktrading.com. That's I N S I D E tracktrading.com. And there's a link in the show notes this interview on financial survival network.com. Please, when you go there, sign up for your free newsletter. Eric, always enlightening, always thought provoking. And let's sit back and see what happens next. That was good. Kerry, it was great to talk to you again. Thanks for listening to Kerry Lutz's financial survival network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to financialsurvivalnetwork.com. Financial survival network. Now more than ever.
