We're going to take a look. Week eight NFL draft Kings main slate breakdown. This is the first in six podcasts. Thank you so much for tuning in. I greatly appreciate all the support thus far this season. I'm sorry about the bye week last week had to do a lot of travel for work. And was going down the champagne for the Illinois versus Michigan game. Illinois pulled up the W. I don't even like that team. But it was a fun game. I think Illinois quarterback won Luke Altmeyer through for like 57 yards or 87 yards as well under 100 I believe. But don't fact check me there. It felt like it was at least. But glad week seven is over. Honestly, glad I didn't do a podcast because it was a disaster for me. I didn't hit cash didn't hit GPPs was way too heavy. And Tyler Huntley on the GPP side of things. But we did talk a lot on the Sunday live stream about the value in John who Smith. So we had a ton of when daily members send a lot of awesome winning screenshots. No, I don't know if there's a takedown, but a lot of good like upper to mid tier cash, which we love to see in the GPP side of things. So if you haven't yet, sign up for when daily sports.com using the promo code sticks that is STi X. But for me, it was a disaster and I believe I had four bets all did not get to the window, all losers, which is which is wild getting a little cold the past two weeks there. So I'm also traveling again this weekend. So probably will be pretty light, but obviously went pretty heavy on Tyree kill over 55 and a half yards. I don't even know if he had 10 yards, Calvin really over three and a half receptions. I still love that play. He only got three, but nine targets. It's just, you know, whatever, I don't need to talk about the process being right, but the results not being there. All you guys care about is the results. But let's get to week eight, huge slate, 13 games. I don't know why they keep doing all this weird shit. No one's on by this week. I don't understand that, but we'll go through the laundry list of injuries as we will likely see every single week in the middle of the season. We'll start with Baltimore. There's kind of a lot to watch there, but both DB's Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins are highly questionable. Same flowers as questionable. I think he'll go. And then they're probably the best offensive tackle Travis Jones also questionable. So this is Thursday morning. So a lot of this is immature information. A lot of guys don't practice on Wednesday and Thursday, especially, you know, a lot of the veterans. So keep an eye on it for Cleveland. Obviously, James is going to go at QP one now in Cleveland, Jerome Ford, highly questionable, linebacker Jordan Hicks, questionable Wyatt Teller, which is good news for the Cleveland Browns on the offensive line there is back. And then Jettrick Willis, offensive tackle is questionable for the Colts. They will welcome back to Forrest Buckner. I'm assuming he's going to be back and also Jonathan Taylor. That is good for them. Josh Downs, Michael Pittman didn't practice on Wednesday. I'm sure they're fine. Same with Ryan Kelly. I'm sure he is fine. Should be good to go there. So Cleveland, or the Indianapolis Colts, getting a lot of firepower back for Houston. Algia here. Jimmy Ward still highly questionable, did not play last week, but Henry 2, 2, 2, should be getting through the concussion protocol and going to be good to go there. But without Elgia and Jimmy Ward, those are still two big runstoppers, but Henry Toto being back is big or Tuato. I don't know. I don't know how to say that. If you guys know, let me know how to say it. That'd be good news. I appreciate that for Green Bay linebacker, Quay Walker, likely out with a concussion. And then honestly, keep an eye out on two of their best pass blockers and probably run blockers, Elton Jenkins, who usually doesn't practice on Wednesday. So again, that's all the information I have. That does not mean a whole lot, so do not panic. And then Josh Myers. So both are highly questionable on that line. But I would assume Elton Jenkins goes, but Josh Myers, that's an interesting one. Let's keep an eye on that because that game has a lot of fantasy sex appeal, but if they're both out, I don't know. I'm just assuming Jordan Love's going to be chock, we'll get to ownership here in a bit, but if they're both out, I don't know, maybe a game to fade. I don't know. That's your call. Jaguar is pretty solid. Other than their best pass, Bach or Cam Robinson is likely out with a concussion. We should see Travis ETN return for Tennessee, who gives a ship a luxurious need is out again. So Buffalo carved them up in the passing game, running game, like literally everything. So they need a luxurious need. But yeah, doesn't look like a whole lot else that is noticeable other than him likely being out with that quad injury. For Detroit, looks pretty good. Jameson Williams obviously suspended two games for PEDs, I guess. So maybe he's juicing. I don't know what he's doing, but not playing. So maybe a bump up to Tim Patrick or Clue Freeman. I don't know if you want to roll the dice with those guys. For Atlanta, it is pretty clean. Looks like just one of the linemen, Ryan Nunsl, he's a really good run blocker, is questionable with an injury for Tampa Bay. My notes here say everyone's dead. Noah Evans, no guy wins obviously out for the year. Bucky Irving is nursing. I believe what is a semi-serious toe injury. We'll see what's going on there. And then Tiki Smith, who's one of the best rookie DBs in the draft class, has fallen out this year. He is likely out with a concussion. I mean, I don't know if Tampa Bay can keep pace, but I would love this spot for Drake London and Mooney, and honestly pits too. But who knows, I just don't see Tampa Bay being able to score. So I'm sure Atlanta D's at 2,600 is going to be pretty popular in draft games. For the Jets, one of their best cover safeties, I think an Illinois guy too. Tony Adams is highly questionable. Rykard, Elijah Vera Tucker, who's a great blocker in general, highly questionable, and Alan Lazard, nursing a chest injury. Keep an eye on that for the Pats. I don't know if anything matters there, but linebacker, Anthony Jenkins, is a great run stopper. I guess one of the only ones I have is highly questionable, and then Jalen Pollock likely out with a concussion. Then Arizona. Arizona Miami is a little key, a game that I do kind of like with two of coming back. So for Miami, two of us likely back, and nickel corner, Cater Cauhu is highly questionable. I wish he would play. He's brutal, and I think that Marv is going to move all around the formation. This should be a great spot for him. But I can't imagine if Cater is starting that, who's ever behind him, is very good. So we'll keep an eye on that. And then for Arizona, a lot to watch on the defense, they're Roy Lopez, Dennis Gardak, the linebacker, and DB Sean Murphy-Bunting, who we've seen be a very solid NFL player, are all questionable. So that is one that I am interested in seeing mature throughout the week. For the Eagles. Pretty clean. Ricard McKibectin. Obviously, a great run blocker is probably out with a concussion, and then pass rusher Byron Young, highly questionable for the Bengals on the other side. Honestly, it looks pretty clean. You know, Dax Hill was put on IR a couple of weeks ago, other than that. It's like, you know, as long as Trey Hendricks is there, like that guy's a game record. For New Orleans, I don't even know if we need to talk about that game. Does anybody care? Carse, you know, still going to be out, I'm sure. Cesar Ruiz, they definitely need him back. Alvin Kamara needs him back, that running game needs him back. He is likely back. Taysom Hill, likely back. Chris Olave, likely back. Still have no interest for the Chargers. Hayden Hurst is probably out again. Joey Bosa should be welcome back. DJ Chark, hopefully making his debut. I believe Quentin Johnson is probably going to miss this game. Keep an eye on Lab McConkie. I think he just, you know, doesn't practice on Wednesdays anymore. He's been banged up, getting a lot of usage. So keep an eye there. For the Bills, linebacker and runstopper, Trel Bernard, highly questionable. Ron Johnson in the nickel corner, should be back for Seattle. You know, sucks. This should be a really fun game. But DK Metcalf is probably going to be out. Trey Brown is still highly questionable, but on the other side, Requel and should be back for the DBs in Seattle. For the Bears, DBs, Colin Brisker and Kyler Gordon, highly questionable, but on the other side, Jayden Daniels, highly questionable. Kansas City, Juju out, other than that, pretty clean. I think they should kick the shit out of Las Vegas, but we'll see what happens. I don't know who's playing quarterback for Las Vegas. I think we'll see Aidan O'Connell again, but we'll figure out what happens there. Harrison Bryant is going to be out. And both of their best blockers, Blind Side Tackle, Colton Miller. He's highly questionable and Dylan Parham, highly questionable for Carolina and adult and out. Yikes. Bryce Young, experiment again. No interest there. Brooks may be back, though. That'll be fun to see. Interested to see the Texas running back make his season debut. Hopefully that is this week. And you know, decent matchup on the ground against Denver, not great. And then defensive foundation Robinson, highly questionable too. For Denver, it looks pretty clean. Patrick Sertan is back. Let's dive into these games and we will start with the Baltimore Ravens going to the Cleveland Browns. We have an opening total of 44 and a half. Baltimore was laying nine to start. We still have 44 and a half of the total. Most books right now have Baltimore laying eight and a half. So a great run script, obviously for Derek Henry coming off a really big workload on Monday night. Don't mind that. For Cleveland's D. We're going to see a ton of man coverage, a lot of cover one, a little bit of cover three, a ton of blitz. So honestly against the, the blitz is going to be a bump in the baseline for Rashad Bateman, like him a lot this week. Just don't really love the potential volume here as they're a nine point favorite, a little bump to Mark Andrews and a little bump to Zade Flowers, who is dealing with a little bit of an ankle injury against that cover one. So that man covers that is a in Bateman all day long against a cover three that is a on the other side. We do have James Winston starting. So I don't really, I don't know, I, Baltimore's defense has been really, really good. Obviously, Cedric Tillman came out swinging last week. I don't hate that. It should be a pass happy script for Cleveland. And obviously Dorsey's going to be the coordinator now and call the play. So we should see a lot more passing and it's James too. Like we have seen him put up huge numbers, but also throw three or four picks a game on the quarterback side of things in ownership. I see Lamar right at six, Jamis at five. I think that's probably accurate. I think a 13 game slate definitely spreads out the ownership a little bit. Probably not a spot. I want to pay a K for Lamar Jackson. Just don't see the ceiling here, 5,200 for Jamis and what should be comeback mode from the jump. I don't hate it, but it's Jamis Winston. I don't know if I want to put a egg in that basket at all, but I get it from a game script theory on the running back side of things. Derek Henry's going to be like 1% on. No one's going to play him. I think it's a great spot for him, but it's 80, 100 doesn't catch the football a whole lot. They catch a touchdown, I think last week, but yeah, Cleveland running backs and no interest. It should be Jerome Ford coming back, but obviously Nick Chub is going to be on a little bit of a pitch count, not chasing the Justice Hill success or anything like that. My receiver side of things, Jerry Judy at 4800, I'm seeing over 10% ownership. I think that's probably fair. I would assume Cedric Tillman at 3300 gets a lot of ownership just for a punt type of play, an educated punt type of play. He's running a ton of routes, not going to leave the field. Should be out there and two wide receiver sets too. I think Elijah Moore would be the odd man out there. Interested to see how much Jamis actually looks Elijah's way in the slot hasn't really been something that we've seen out of Jamis throughout his career. State flowers, 6800, 5% owned again, like, yeah, you could torch Cleveland, their secondary has been pretty bad. The pass rush is still pretty good, but yeah, I don't know, not really interested in this game. Titans, the Joku 5100, no, there's no ownership in this game. I say likely I'm seeing 8%. There's no way. Mark Andrews 4K, 5% like people will probably chase those points a little bit. I think both defenses are in play. The next game is Tennessee and Detroit, we're probably going to fly through that one opening total of 45, Detroit laying 11, they are now laying 11 and a half or 12, depending on where you're looking with a total of 44 and a half. I don't even know if I went through coverages in that game, just because it's like, yeah, I don't care. Yeah. All right. So Tennessee, we're going to see a ton of cover four, which is surprising. It's like they just played Ben, don't break and hope their red zone defense can hold new field goal issues. They can't score three points on the other side of offense. So I don't know what they're doing. Like you got to try to create turnovers or you're going to get your ass kicked either way. Not really blitzing, but I have an advantage here for Amman Ross, Saint Brown and whoever the wide receiver to is. I'm assuming Tim Patrick with some check downs to Gibbs because not a lot of blitz there, the flat should be pretty open to against that cover four for Detroit. A lot of man coverage, a ton of blitz as we know for Tennessee, my notes wrote, who cares? And Calvin really is banged up. The under happens is gone like it should be a great game script for Ridley. But who knows? Quarterbacks, going to be no ownership, whether it's Mason Rudolph or Will Davis, Jared Gough, no one's going to play him. I'm okay with it. Again, just not. They have such a high implied team total, 28.25 for Detroit. It's like, maybe you go to Gibbs, 7,400. I've seen 20% of the field on junior Gibbs, David Montgomery is not dead, 6,400, 1% there. Like they probably have the highest implied team total on the slate. Let me confirm that they sure do, three points higher than Kansas City. So yeah, it's like you want exposure, maybe Tim Patrick, I don't know. I hate rolling the dice with these running backs, but if you just three, two game sack this one last week and use junior Gibbs and I'm under a Saint Brown little to no ownership, you would have done just fine because it was a very low scoring week in DFS. I get it. Probably one exposure that I just don't know where, you know, Tim Patrick of 3500 over Cedric Tohman at 33, like you probably want Tim Patrick. See if we had any player props on Tim Patrick for the sake of unity here. We'll just, I got underdog fired up here. Let's see if we got anything for Tim Patrick. I see nothing. All right. Cool. I was like some weird touchdown thing, but I'm not into that. So yeah, no ownership in this game. I'm on Ross and Brown's in a good spot, but again, no ceiling type of game here. Sam aboard. I know ownership. Gross. We're going to move on to the next game. I think both defenses are in play Tennessee's 2,200. So do what you got to do into Houston. I do like this game a little bit. I do think there is some back and forth nature here. Houston's deep is going to show, you know, they have a good mix of man and zone, a lot of cover three cover four and a decent blitz against the cover three and the cover four. That is advantage Michael Pittman against the blitz. That is Michael Pittman and potentially the second outside wide receiver. I guess that's going to be out pierced with a little bit of a dummy Mitchell. I love this spot for Michael Pittman seems to be Anthony Richardson's guy and they should be playing catch up. I think Houston comes out firing obviously Jonathan Taylor back for Indy should help a lot, but I mean, I don't know if CJ started him through for 100 yards last week. So they got to come back and get a rolling in terms of the opening total. 46 was the opener Houston laying five. It is now 45 and a half Houston laying five. So not much change there. See J sprout at zero percent ownership right now is what I'm seeing. I love this spot. We want to continuously pick on Indianapolis Colts. I know we did it last week at when daily some of us and failed miserably with Tyler Huntley and Tyree kill, but John Smith came through there and that was more on the inside covered suit. They're just using John in pretty cool ways, but yeah, I like Pittman here a lot for Indy. It's pretty much all cover three, a little bit of cover to you. It's a great spot for Dalton Schultz. I just wish they would use them and a good spot for some fun digs. I'm probably not paying that much for Diggs, but no ownership on either QB here. Joe mix in 7700 has been a world beta recently. I'm seeing 15 plus on the ownership, Jonathan Taylor, 7500 sub five percent can definitely run on Houston a little bit, especially with a LJ year out two out two coming back a little bit of a hurt there. I mean, I loved Josh Jacobs last week, Jimmy Ward probably highly questionable too. I don't think I want to go full into Jonathan Taylor, but sub five percent in the dome. These teams like to kind of have slug fest together in that division rivalry. Like I see this game going back and forth. Staff on dig sub five percent tanked out two percent sixty three hundred like tanked out is going to get going here soon. I know I said advantage to Schultz and Diggs, but tanked out is baseline is still right there and that is a higher baseline than previous weeks because obviously no Nico Collins, you could definitely go back tanked out and Michael Pittman is a mini stack here or Dalton Schultz or something like that. Like I do think this is a really good spot for Michael Pittman. Let's see if we have any props on those wide receivers just to see what the market thinks CJ Stroud to and a 40 passing yard. So a little lower than what we're used to seeing for him, but I see four and a half receptions 56 yards for tanked out. Let me give you my projection for tanked out. I had him for four point seven one catches and fifty nine yards right on market. No edge there five and a half catches sixty three for dig. So yeah, in just in terms of like props, he's not worth the price of admission unless he gets in the box twice, which is certainly possible to do don't Schultz three reception thirty. I don't know. Dalton Schultz just doesn't do anything and that's he runs a ton of routes. He gets a lot of first downs on third down, but I don't know Michael Pittman no props released at the moment on underdog. So yeah, I like this game. I think there's good little stack ability and no ownership. Let's see Dalton Schultz two percent ownership of forty one hundred. I do like him a good bit this week moving on to Green Bay Jacksonville, which should be a pretty good game over under opened up at forty eight and a half Packers length three and a half. They are laying for right now on the road with the total bet up to forty nine or forty nine and a half depending on where you're looking. So the public does think that this is a great game to get after in terms of pace. Jordan loves seventy one hundred pretty expensive, but the guy throws for two, two and a half touchdowns every single game, probably leading the pack for me right now in terms of cash game quarterback play and just not stacking with anybody because again, I'd say it every single week it is so hard to predict Green Bay Packers passing attack other than like it's going to be really good. You just don't know who's getting it doubts are on the most routes. Jayden Reed seems to be Jordan loves guy and I've done taping weeks is getting in there Tucker craft like we still got Josh Jacobs. I don't know. It's tough and Christian Watson like we mentioned him 5600 Trevor Lawrence 2% ownership. I see Jordan love right around like 7% ownership. I think both of those are fair. I like both of them. I think both of these guys can can get moving a little bit Josh Jacobs 6600. I'm seeing sub 10% I see tank bigs be at zero percent right now. I think that that's just these optimizers that I'm looking at like figuring out of ETN fair or not. So stay tuned. I mean, if ETN doesn't go bigs, we's in a great spot and you could three to stack the shit out of this game, which I definitely am interested in doing this week. I like doing that more on bigger slates instead of trying to hit the nuts with all these random players. I like to get two or three games that I just say if these games shoot out, my lineup can have success and that's where I like using you know quarterback to pass catchers quarterback running back wide receiver running back with running back in a wide receiver running back tight end. Whatever the case may be that is what I mean by a three to stack. Brian Robinson 6400 Jaden Reed 7700. There's no ownership in this game for that surprising. I think it'll go up. Let's look at the coverage for the Packers mainly zone. They play a ton of cover three, a little bit of cover two, sometimes some cover one, but all against all coverage is I have a big bump up to Evan Ingram and Brian Thomas Jr. Christian Kirk seems to be just the odd man out and it's been consistent. It's been a you know, a weekly thing since Evan Ingram's came back and Brian Thomas just is that dude 6400 still probably too cheap. I like that a ton for Jacksonville. We'll see a lot of man coverage mainly cover one and cover two on the zone side of things. No blitz and my notes for Green Bay a mix of everyone. So no one really boosting up. I do see Jacobs getting a little bit of a projected boost against that cover two in the checkdown game. So yeah, I mean Romeo Dobbs 5700 is a great price for a guy that runs that many routes on the outside against a terrible secondary. But who knows? Maybe it's Christian Watson in the red zone, maybe it's on David Wicks, maybe Jaden Reed gets a feast. I'm probably not paying 6700 for Jaden Reed just because again, I never know what week it's coming. Evan Ingram 5k flat 6% ownership. I think that'll go up. That's a great price. Great matchup. Love it. One of my sneakily favorite games here. Let's see the ownership is Arizona. My ami opened up a total of 46 and a half. It is sitting at 46 or 45 and a half depending on where you're looking. Miami opened up as three and a half point favorite at home. That is staying still. Quarterbacks, Kyler Murray 6400, 6% ownership, Tuah 6100, 6% ownership. I think both these guys come well under that. I think this is kind of a forgotten game, but I love them both. I don't love Tuah. I mean, the guys won hit away from leaving the game at all times, but I like Tyreek and Achan being there because of Tuah and obviously you could always like Waddle if you want to, but I've never gotten that guy right. On the running back side of things, ownership, a ton for Devan Achan. I did not see that coming. I thought he'd be kind of forgotten with Gervante Williams and Kareem Hunt being right there. I'm seeing 27% ownership for Achan. So great matchup for James Counter at 6500. No ownership there. You can use both these guys. Let's get into coverage here. Miami mixes up a lot. We'll see mainly cover three, but also a lot of cover two or a good bit of cover two and cover one, a good bit of blitz. That's going to be advantage, Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. against the cover one when they do show man coverage. That is going to be Marvin Harrison Jr. against the cover two. That is more advantage slot. So potentially Dorch, I guess, and Trey McBride against the cover three McBride and Marv. So the consistent guy seems to be Trey McBride here. I want to bet pretty heavily on Marvin Harrison Jr. here. I think this is a fantastic matchup for him. I don't even care if Jalen Ramsey sees him half the day. Arms are out running and separation seems to be great on paper and watching it. It's no fucking props up. Marvin Harrison Jr. either. What are we doing here underdog? Tyreak six or 81. So yeah, they just needed to go back for the market to open up in Tyreak. Damn. But yeah, so if we get like a four and a half catch prop and the juice is on the over there. We go four receptions, 49 and a half yards from Marvin Harrison. The issue is I guess Arizona is not really passing very much, but both these teams, play very quick. Let's go into terms of like pace. Indianapolis and who do we got there obviously Houston, Houston's playing a little bit slower. So I do like that game ability to go back and forth, but Miami and Arizona, both inside the top 10 in pace of play. So I do like this game a lot. Like I've already mentioned that many times, just didn't see the ownership on Achan coming in that high. Damn. Marvin Harrison, Jr. 6800, I think the cheapest price we've seen him at 3% owned. I like Marvin Harrison Jr. a lot this week. I think that's a great GPP play prop market doesn't really love him, but again, Tyreak, I mean, I'm sorry, Kyler's passing prop is only like 208. So they obviously don't respect Arizona to pass very much and we're not seeing it very much. And McBride, 5500, guys, pretty much a wide receiver at this point, puts up wide receiver 2, maybe low wide receiver 1 numbers, 12% ownership there. Other than Tyreak, there is no ownership. Tyreak and Achan. So that sucks because my first hand build is Tyreak and Achan running it back with Kyler potentially Marvin and McBride, but I just don't think it's a great idea to double stack Kyler Murray when the passing volume just isn't there. Let's see what the 80-model has for projected pass attempts for Mr. Murray. It's at 27. Yeah, it's just like, all right, we're obviously playing Kyler because his legs doesn't really make a ton of sense to double stack, but I have Marvin Harrison projected for 4.7 catches, 55 yards receiving. So there'll probably be a slight edge, depending on the juice at 49 receiving yards, but we'll check that out and keep an eye on the betting sheet, I will keep you posted if I make a play on Marvin Harrison. As of now, I'm certainly leaning that direction. Moving on to the next game, we got the Jets at New England. Where we have a very boring total here, opened up at 41 and a half. It is now sitting at 41 or 40 and a half, depending on where you're looking, Jets are lay in seven, opened and staying that way. I mean, do you really care about any ownership here? Maybe a sneaky spot for Aaron Rodgers is to pile it on after a dog shit showing on prime time football, 5700 for him, 5% ownership, Drake May, 5500, 5% ownership, no way Drake may comes in at 5% ownership, Breeze Hall, 7300, just a smash bot. I'm seeing 30% ownership there. That's why I feel like H& probably won't come in that high, but Breeze Hall is in a great spot. I don't see why a ton of people will go back there though, just because I feel like the public is still worried about Braille now, but yeah, everything Jets here, I think they beat the living shit out of them. In terms of coverage, I don't even think I really broke down a ton. The Jets are obviously going to play a lot of man and they play a lot of cover four. I think that'd be Demario, like advantage to Mario everywhere, Demario Douglas there. So a good game script for him, 4700, he'll probably be close to 10% on him, seeing 8% right now. I'm seeing no ownership on the Jets wide receivers. So if you want to pay up for Devontay Adams and what should be a statement game for Rodgers and company or Garrett Wilson at 6700 or just double-stack it and hope that the Jets just keep going and don't need New England to push the pace on the other side, it's very possible because Rodgers is that type of guy. But yeah, not really in the whole situation, no ownership on the tight ends on our Henry or Conklin, probably a good game script for Hunter Henry, Tyler Conklin is just like does he score a touchdown or not now that Devontay Adams and Garrett Wilson are there moving on to the next game. Walking wounded, Tampa Bay Bucks hosting the Atlanta Falcons. We have an opening total. Where is this game and why can't I find you there we go 45 and 45 was the opener Atlanta laying two and a half 45 and a half bet up to 46 at some books, Atlanta still laying two and a half on the road here. Quarterbacks, let's see what we got for ownership. I don't think anybody will play Baker. Yeah, 1% Baker Kirk Cousins, 4% I just don't see how Tampa can keep this game very close. They probably got to take the air out of the ball, Bucky Irving. Again, we mentioned that toe injury. I think it is definitely severe, so we'll keep an eye on that. You know Kirk wants to throw it 37 times a game, which is great here. It just can Tampa Bay keep it close. I mean, the spreads close, so I guess so. Running backs, Bijon Robinson, 7,200, 17% on ownership, I think that's a fair price and fair ownership for that price. We should have white 5700, just, I don't know, he looks very, very slow to me, but gonna get work in the passing game. On the covered side of things, we have the Tampa Bay Bucks playing nothing but zone and a ton of blitz, mainly just cover three. It's gonna be London against the blitz and a good mix of everybody, so that being, you know, check downs of Bijon, Drake London, Darnell Looney, Kyle Pitts against cover three, so as much as I want to play Drake London, 15% ownership at 7,200, I'll probably pass just thinking this is not a ceiling spot for him. I like him more in the dome, but the guy's just getting 10 targets a damn game, so I think he's fair in cash, but 7,200, I want more of a ceiling, so I want to gain that I can project going back and forth, and this is not one of them. I could certainly be wrong, but Atlanta, gonna run a lot of cover three as well, decent amount of blitz, pretty much all zone. Now that we have a wide open receiving core, everything that I wrote is a advantage, a slot and a tight end, so that's Kate Otten, and I would assume Sterling Shepherd goes into the slot. Jaylin McMillan, I'm seeing 10% ownership, Trey Palmer, I'm seeing 15% ownership, probably no interest in either of those guys, if they're double digits, I have no interest in Trey Palmer, I would lean McMillan on the outside if I had to choose one, but I would lean Sterling Shepherd here having a very busy day, and I'm assuming as I flip the tight end here, all the ownership in the world is on Kate Otten, I see 4%, there's just no way that that's true, this guy's gotta have wide receiver like props, let's see what that is, and Kyle Pitt's ownership is 10% at 4400, I think we see it under there and way over on Otten, but if no one's gonna play Kate Otten, what, let's see, Kate Otten, where are you at buddy, 47 and a half receiving yards, there's no way I haven't projected for that, let's see, but that's almost like you just take it, I haven't for 38, so a little below market, I'm gonna have to bump that up, I'm assuming they're saying four and a half catches, but well, you know, I gotta fix that projection because Mike Evans is still in there, so we will definitely fix that, I'm going to have Kate Otten very close to his market, probably over, I guess, once I run that simulation, but yeah, good spot for him, good spot for Shepherd, probably not super interested on anything Atlanta related, but I will never talk you off playing Drake London or Benjamin Robinson, just not something I'm in the business of doing, we got Philly going to Cincinnati, a game I think should be a fun one, opening total 47 and a half, since he laying two, laying two and a half, laying three at some books right now, total about up to 48, 48 and a half at some books, they got since he is a favorite, that is interesting, I mean, we did talk about the line being banged up a little like the kymectin being McKai back then, I always flip those two for some reason, 76, 500 for Jalen Hurts, 6% ownership, 7k for Joe Burrow, 6% ownership, cool with either of them, I do think this game has a lot of shootout potential, 5,800 Chase Brown, I'm seeing 18% ownership, Saquon Barkley in a great spot, I know since he is better against the run than they are the past, but Saquon Barkley behind this offensive line, whether that outbacked in is fantastic, 8,300, you're paying for it though, in terms of coverage, not much ownership here either, that is very interesting, okay, maybe this is a game we like, equals the not going to blitz much mill of the pack in terms of man coverage rates, they mix up a lot of coverages, everything that I went through says that T Higgins gets a little bit of bump in the production, but AJ, you know, I'm sorry, Jameric Chase, like there's nothing wrong, I'm going to say a bunch of Marchese, he's a stud, he's just 8,500, that is tough to pay for, this is a great game environment, AJ Brown on the other side, 8,200, fantastic spot for him too, but we will see a lot of, I guess a good bit of blitz from Cincinnati, I would assume they maybe hold off a little bit in this game and try to spy Jalen Hertz, I would assume they lay off the blitz a little bit, mainly cover three and cover two, do see a little bit of man coverage, but I got Devonta versus the zone, but AJ's, his baseline is right there or better, so both the guys on the outside, Devonta does go in the slot a little bit more, and we see Datsun now go outside, but I like the spot for Andy Pascadra, I like this game, tight ends, I don't think Dallas Goddard is going to play still, so Grant Calcantara 3,200, I'm seeing 10% ownership, I have no fucking interest in that guy, I want to go outside here, which is AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, I guess Datsun, maybe you could sprinkle a touchdown prop or something stupid on him if you have interest in that game, outside of the pier obvious studs in the past funnels there, moving on to a gross game, the Chargers hosting the Saints, 7 and a half, the Chargers are laying opening total of 41 and a half, bet down to 40 and a half, spread still right there, 7, 7 and a half, I'm not going to talk about the quarterbacks, you probably don't want to play any of these guys, I mean Justin Herbert did throw for 300 yards last game, which I'd love to see that, I played him on the Monday night's slate, so if you didn't have Lamari, you didn't have anything, so oh well, picked like the best day to play Herbert and still get nothing for it, JK Dobbins in a smash bot, 6,900 to 10% ownership, yeah, interested there, Alvin Kamara, probably no interest, short rest, and I guess it's not short rest, it's a long rest, I'm sorry, but dealing with a broken hand apparently, I assume we see some more Kendra Miller eventually, but I'm not paying 7,600 for a bad matchup in general for Alvin Kamara, but he is getting a ton of passing work, coverage, I mean the Saints play a good bit of man coverage, not much blitz, a little bit of cover two as well, I basically said it's like Laid McConkie, no one else for the Chargers right now, and he's just a guy, it's like Laid McConkie, I'm sorry, but like great hands, but he's just like a missionary guy, like you know, five receptions, 50 yards, that's what you get every single game, I don't know, 10 to 15 points doesn't really do it for me, 15 points would be great at 5100, but again, I don't think Rattler and Company gets a pace going here, Chris Olave is back, Chris Olave broke my week two weeks ago, I was very high on him, and I did kind of admit on the win daily stream, that was probably a bad play, and I think I repeated the same mistake, like I used Rattler for the value, probably should just play Joanne Johnson with them, and like kept it as a very low value stack to afford the world elsewhere, and not jam in Chris Olave two weeks ago, and last week I probably should have done the same thing with Tyler Huntley and Jonny Smith, just play that, I know a lot of guys that win daily did and laid off Tyree Kale, I went with Tyree Kale, just stay with the fucking value if you're going to do that way and load up with guaranteed studs, and I didn't do it because you could have survived a bad game from Tyler Huntley, if you paired him with Jonny Smith with how low scores were last week, no interest in the tight inside of things here, another fun game, I think we will see a good bit of rain in Seattle, so keep an eye on that, but we got Seattle hosting the Buffalo Bills opening total 47, it is sitting there pretty much, and the Bills laying three, let's go to the quarterbacks, I have nothing bad to say about Josh Allen, some 5% Josh Allen is always awesome, 7800, has a very healthy wide receiver core right now, and a lot of weapons with Shakir, obviously a Mari Cooper, Keon Coleman's coming a little bit to life, got Kincade, got James Cook, like Josh Allen, maybe a great play here, I just hate that DK Metcalf is like the out for Seattle, otherwise I would have stacked the shit out of this game, running back, Kenneth Walker a great spot for him, you could run against Buffalo, Tony Pollard definitely seemed to have gotten a concussion last week, but came back out and still had a solid game, didn't get in the box and didn't get a lot of past catching work, and that game just got out of hand quickly, so not much love there, but I'm all for Kenneth Walker, this guy's a superstar, and I think you could run on Buffalo, I think that's probably what they're going to have to do is go pretty run heavy, James Cook, no ownership 7k, that may be very interesting, I like that, on the covered side of things for the wide receivers here, Seattle's not going to blitch much, a good bit of man and zone, against cover one it should be Dalton Kincade and the X, the X is going to be a Mari, again do we worry about a little bit of a pitch count and learning the playbook, maybe against cover three a massive boost to Khalil Shakir, so we should get some check down from James Cook too, it's just like Ray Davis isn't going anywhere, I think his snap counts going up and up, so I don't love James Cook at 7k, but if you want a 3-2 stack this game, James Cook with Khalil Shakir, James Cook with a Mari, or even get a low on Kincade in there, let's check his ownership, I'm sure Kincade's very low, 3%, like yeah 4,900, this is a really good spot, maybe Josh Allen's a way to go, I just worry about like what does Seattle do on the other side, Buffalo is going to run pretty much all zone, they don't blitz at all, a good bit of cover two, but they do show pretty much cover three, cover four, a little bit of cover six, for Seattle I said it's decently spread around, a big boost to the RB check down, so yeah I do like Kenneth Walker here, he seems to be very active in the passing game, and I guess if you want to play like a cheap Tyler Lockett, I'm assuming, this is me assuming, Metcalf is a no-go, or you know, Jackson Smith in the jig, but I don't hate it, there's no ownership there, this game should have a good bit of back and forth ability, Taran Johnson is coming back so that should help Buffalo secondary, but I do think Seattle can score, I like Grub, I think he's a good schemer, moving on to Las Vegas Raiders, probably get their ass kicked here, hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, 41 and a half point total, man the Chiefs just totals each game are just so low, their defense is so good, they're getting it done just a different way, but they are laying nine right now, nine and a half depending on where you're looking, even 10 at some offshores out there, so that is very interesting, probably no interest in Patrick Mahomes, but he's got to make a state game eventually, sounds like it's going to be Menchu playing quarterback, no ownership on either of those guys, running backs but side of things, I'm sure Kareem Hun's ownership is way higher than 15% what I'm reading now, 6300, great spot, Casey's offensive lines, healthy, they're good to go, Alexander Madison, 5600, he's just not good, and you don't want to run on Kansas City, it's not, I mean you can't really do anything in Kansas City right now, I love Xavier Worthy in this spot, 1% owned, I know Dandra Hopkins is back, but I bet a prop of Xavier Worthy to score at +185, I wish I was two to one, but 185 is the best number, I had him at +150 proper, so anything 30 point edge that I can get, I usually take on the coverage side of things here for the Raiders, they play a lot of man, like a lot of cover one and then a mix of cover two and cover three when they do go to zone, a lot of blitz, I have massive advantage to Xavier Worthy against the blitz and Kelsey and Worthy against the zone and Worthy against the cover one, so it's like Worthy, checks all three boxes, not many guys have done that for me this week, I guess just to recap, it was Michael Pittman, I guess Brian Thomas Jr., I'm in Ross St. Brown, Trey McBride, Tyreke Hill, so yeah Xavier Worthy is in a very good group right now, but 6200 in a game I just feared has no back and forth at all, I'm just going to bet him to score a touch, I don't think this is a big game for him, I think his value is more getting inside the box because we do see the jet sweeps and stuff instead of like a reception number, but I'd be interested in looking at that, I think it's a 40 and a half, I just don't know, I didn't have that big of an edge on that number, McCall Hardman 4K, I want to play him but I can't, just such limited reps but when he does, I still believe in this guy, man, if you guys know me, I've been talking about him forever, but I'm kind of eating my words a little bit, but he did score the last touchdown in the NFL season unless we can walk off Super Bowl champs, Kansas City Chiefs, touchdown Hardman. Washington Host in Chicago, we got a total, I believe that opened up at 43, Chicago lay in two and a half, total is pretty much sitting there, maybe some books at 43 and a half, I don't think we're going to see Jayden Daniels was not practicing yesterday, obviously Wednesday, it's Thursday morning now, I'm assuming he's not going to practice but keep an eye on that, would be a great spot for Caleb Williams, but I do think Washington's defense is starting to piece it together a little bit, 7300 for Jayden Daniels, no interest there, even if he does go, Caleb Williams, 6K, a little bit of interest, but I worry about the back and forth assuming that Jayden Daniels is not going to go, running back, there's no ownership, you can definitely run on Chicago, but I think Brian Robinson Jr. success has been because Jayden Daniels draws so much coverage and so much respect from opposing defensive coordinators. On the passing side of things, Washington's playing a good bit of man and a lot of blitz, they mix up cover one and cover two when they go to zone, Chicago's kind of been a mixed bag in terms of target share versus the blitz, DJ Morrison get the advantage in the cover one and Cole commit versus the cover two for Washington, I just don't know, I don't want to talk about this game a whole lot because I do project Jayden Daniels being out last game of the day, another gross one, Denver Broncos have a 26 point implied team total, I've never seen them that high this year, that is impressive, that total opened up at 41 and a half, they are a double digit home favorite, which is where we love to see running backs. So I'm assuming the world is going to love Givontae Williams, we'll see quarterback ownership though real quick, Brexion, no, Bownex 5600, seeing 5% ownership, I'm looking at optimizer, when daily I think the optimizer there has been for like 19, I'm seeing one with 20, it's wild Givontae Williams, only 12% ownership at 6K, I think it's a fine cash play. I don't know if I love it in tournaments because I thought everybody would go there and Kareem Hunt and that's like Achan was my pivot, but I guess the public loves Achan currently, it is early so we'll see ownership mature, no interest in paying 6700 for Chuba Hubbard without Andy Dalton, wide receivers, I have no interest in any Panther wide receiver, I think it's been terrible, love the spot for Courtland Sutton at 5300, but I fear that Carolina will not score at all and we're going to see like a lot of Audrick Estimae, some Jalil McLaughlin, obviously Givontae leading the way to begin with, maybe Troy Franklin gets a good run here, I don't know, I mean, all Carolina does play cover three and blitz a ton, the boost so far have been to Mr. Devon Vele, but I think his snap counts are going in favor of Troy Franklin now and then Sutton against a cover three, so yeah, I mean great spot for Sutton, no interest in these tight ends, but I greatly appreciate everybody's time, we got through a 13 game slate in under 45 minutes, I guess recap real quick, let's just see who like my favorite plays are currently, it is very early, so check out the win daily stream on Sunday, I will be out of town, but my playbook will be out at windailysports.com, I guess favorite quarterbacks right now would be Josh Allen, you know certainly I like Jalen Hertz and Joe Burrow, but I'm probably not going to pay for them, I would rather have Joe or Josh Allen if I go up that high, mid tier, I love Kyler Murray here, I think this is a great spot for him, I do think he'll pass a lot more than what we're actually seeing, but who knows, Miami is a good run funnel, and that's it, I don't think I want to pay down at all, you know, maybe Anthony Richardson or CJ Stroud is very interesting to me, running backs, I mean, anybody that's up top is in a great spot, Kenneth Walker intrigues me a lot at like 5% ownership, Joe mixing against Indy, guys continues to go and go and go, Breeze Hall is in a great spot, he's going to be very popular, maybe that's a cash play, Devon Achan, I did not think we'll get that much ownership, Kareem Hunt, I feel like is a staple, wide receivers, you know, love the Philly Cincinnati game, I like the value guys in that game too, with you know Devonta Smith and T Higgins, love Tyree Kael, but so does the world, but he's 7k, it's like eventually you just got to take it, and even said to fancy, you know, just play me this week, Brian Thomas Jr., I like him a ton, I like him every week, I think he's under price, Tank Dell 6300, I am ready to buy the dip on Tank Dell, I think this is a great spot for him, you know, the Seattle guys, Smith and Juba, and Tyler Lockett, I don't hate Khalil Shakir, 5900, I like a ton, Romeo Dobbs, I like him, like it's just the packer saying I never get right, so I don't take my word for it, you know, there's a lot of values down there, we already talked about the 3k guys, tight end, love Evan Ingram, love Trey McBride, I may go back to Dalton Schulz, but I got to stop doing that, that's pretty much it, and Kate Otten, I still feel like his ownership has to skyrocket, so we'll see there, but good luck to everybody this week, follow me on Twitter @stixpix, STIX, P-I-C-K-S, sign up at windailysports.com if you want to see all the projections, the playbook, all that good stuff, David Jones's article, he's been a little bit of a heater, I think we have a game by game breakdowns, everything that Tony's doing too has been fantastic, promo code STIX, STIX, STIX, good luck to everybody this week, and we'll catch you next week. Bye! (upbeat music) [BLANK_AUDIO]
