35/1 AND 40/1 WINNERS LAST WEEK!
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Our resident golf expert David Bieleski aka DeepDiveGolf gave out Taylor Pendrith live on the show at 40/1 as FRL, then backed it up with J.T. Poston as the outright winner as 35/1.
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(air whooshing) - Every team, every topic, everywhere. This is Belize. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (water whooshing) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (water whooshing) (upbeat music) (water whooshing) (upbeat music) (water whooshing) (upbeat music) (water whooshing) (upbeat music) (water whooshing) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - Welcome into the PGA draft cast live YouTube show and podcast. You'll know something a little bit different today. There is no Joel. It's actually Joel's birthday today. So we thought that we'd give him the night off, let him go and celebrate his birthday, turning 30 of none of your business, and let him go and celebrate. So just Spencer Knight tonight, but obviously a fantastic week, last week to recap. An exciting tournament, the Zozo Championship, with a few stud golfers, not as many as we used to at this event. Obviously looks a little bit weaker than what we've seen in the previous editions of the Zozo Championship. Spencer, how are you doing this evening? - I'm doing well. You've kind of alluded to it at the beginning of this show. I know you had the JT post and outright. Both of us had Taylor Pendreth for first round leader. Very solid week across the board. I'll let you talk a little bit deeper though about that post and play that you had. - Yeah. I mean, look, fantastic week. Obviously both you and I are hitting that first round leader insane 40 to one. And then what a great sport golfers that you can hit a 41 ticket and then in the same week hit an outright winner at 35 to one. I mean, what a game. Like, why would you not be involved in golf, really? And a lot of it came down to us, spoke about on the show last week about the weather that we were going to see in Las Vegas. For me, someone else might have said it. But for me, I didn't see anybody else talking about the weather at all last week. I certainly didn't see anyone mentioning that Friday was going to be delayed as I gave out last week as well. So I got an absolute spot on the weather was horrific as we predicted. Only 25 players made the cut from the bad wave. We recommended going Thursday, 8am Friday PM. That ended up being about four shots better than the alternative wave. And that really did just give us such an advantage in terms of players. And look, I mean, if you're a dug-in decker, you're probably feeling a bit aggrieved because he was on the wrong wave. Still only finished one shot off J.T. Post and a pretty impressive performance from him able to find a part of. So they're always happy to victory-like things as you know. Spence, just another reason that you should be grabbing our promo in the description. You use deep dive golf when signing up to win daily in the promo below, you'll get 50% of all your premium membership categories. So that's as low as $7.50 a week. So it is next to nothing. And when we're giving out winners at 35 to 1, it doesn't have a genius to work out that you were getting amazing value to money for money, as well as access to all of our other sports. As you've got the Vegas Raiders head on as well. So obviously, we're off a ton of NFL experience, NHL experience, MLB playoffs are coming up as well. So I will watch to cover over everyone daily and help you win more at all the sports that you follow. But Spence, do you want to shout out the Raiders at all? And do you want to give us a breakdown of the course in Japan this week, a courtier, courtier, Narashino country club? There's not much positive stuff to say about the Raiders. So I like this hat. I will say that. That's one of the reasons why I wear it above that being one of the worst teams in the NFL. They're going in the wrong direction. But I will give a course breakdown. Narashino country club is going to be about an hour's drive east of Tokyo. And it features what I would call a very claustrophobic design. You have substantial tree lined intangibles that are in place throughout. Golfers are going to have to move the ball in multiple directions because of the facilities dog legs. I naturally think that puts extra credits in the bucket for accuracy over distance when you're talking about a less than 7,100 yard course. That doesn't present that bombs away appeal. But the one thing I want to say, David, to where I had a little bit more weight for length in my model than most people did. And it's kind of that outside of the box narrative. We obviously don't have stat tracker or shot link here to get all the information. But one of the things I noticed when diving into this and it's kind of the thing that I've noticed the last couple iterations of this tournament had Keegan Bradley two years ago when he won had Colin Moore a call last year. And I know we're talking about extremely quality ball strikers rather than this distance answer. But one of the things that comes into play is you get this really impactful scoring production and also the avoidant standpoint when a driver is in hand. We see that when diving into the five par four holes that land between 486 to 505 yards. Those are going to be the most challenging locations for the week. And then you also have this really unique assortment from the three par fives. One's easy. The second is pretty medium. And then the third one is the six hundred eight yard really long hole to where two three years ago when I used to update my model every single year. You had about a 19 20% birdie or better percentage. Obviously that's about as low as you see on tour for any event. It has gotten easier over the last couple iterations of this contest. It now yields more like a 24 to 25% birdie rate. But you know it kind of goes back to that narrative of what I was just talking about of you have your really impactful holes on those par fours where you need to avoid mistakes. And then those three par fives where you need to try to make a score. So I do think driving distance is a little bit more important than a lot of people are going to weigh into their models. It's not necessarily something that's overbearing inside of my sheet. I look more for strokes gain off the tee with difficult fairways strokes gain off the tee with longer rough through that all into the mix. But there is a little bit of driving distance more than I guess public narrative would leave most people to believe. Yeah, absolutely. I agree with that as well. I think a really interesting set this week, which I've used previously to good success here, is a just good drive percentage, which takes into a combination either being really accurate or being really long off the tee. And it kind of weighs those both and kind of produces some interesting results that I think this week is, as you've mentioned, kind of it is finding a strength off the tee, not necessarily one or the other. You can be highly accurate and avoid all the travel off the trees, or you can be really long with the driver, for example. And then as you see it for those that long part five, oh, six hundred yards, go for it in two, when others in the field, you know, the Andrew Putnam's of the PGA to a cargo and reach that green into, for example. So I think that's a really interesting narrative. As you mentioned, elite ball strikers have done really well here, approach players being really indicative of good success. Interesting tips, oyster grass here as well, not something that we see all that often on the PGA tour. Other examples, you can look at a TPC Southwind and TPC Craig ranch for guidance, where they do use oyster grass, look into some of the approach metrics there. It's a pretty, pretty. Pretty bad. Pretty polarizing grass type and golfers have spoken about both being producing flyers occasionally, or they feel that it's great, and it's like hitting a ball off a golf tee every simple time. So it can be really polarizing. So maybe keep the eye out. People found success that FedEx St. Jude, I think, is a real key. TPC Craig ranch on approach, particularly, I think, is a good guide as well. The other one I sort of, and I hate drawing parallels to Augusta National anywhere, but there are correlations between leaderboards at Augusta National and here, look at players like Kentucky, Matsuyama, everyone, and for a second. Plaidwards, obviously, completed a victory here before going on to the return to glory victory at the Masters in April, a few months later as well. So I think those are key guides. In the meantime, not only did I give out JT posts as the winner last week, I had them on my DFS team, along with Taylor Brenda, along with Harry Hall, Harris English, we had four in the top 10 last week, and that was enough to see me get in the PGA draft cast last week. So I have the selection of the draft all of a week. I'll bring the draft board up and I have gone with myself in first, Spence in second, and team audience. You will be on the wrap round at the end here. And I'm not going to take the obvious pick of Xander Schofler here. I think that he will get a ton of ownership. I think that he's had an epic year. Obviously, he's won in Tokyo before at the Olympics, won the gold medal a few, well, 30 minutes or so away at a different golf course. But I'm going to go and take Dickey Matsuyama at the top of the board here. I think that he has also had a landmark here. Obviously, he's got a great record at the Masters as a previous champion and we're a green jacket here. He's a previous champion here. He's finished second here before. But look at the golf courses where Dickey has done well. He's also won at TPC Southwind, another Zoysia grass property. He's also had a great record at Riviera where he's won another classical designed tree line golf course. He's had a landmark year with the victories he's managed to rattle off. And he is absolutely going to be one of those at the top of the market who has put in climbing effort to come in here and be improved. Many of these guys we haven't seen for two months. You know, Dickey Matsuyama is a cult hero. He's basically a god in Japan. And you know that he will be taking his preparation. Every bit as serious as any signature event as years for the Zozo championship. Whereas some of the others, you may question whether they're coming in with a bit of rust, whether they're a bit jet-lagged, whether this is really the most important tournament for them. I've got none of those questions for Dickey Matsuyama. Very happy to start my line up with him there. Spence, you'll be on the clock after me. But any thoughts on Dickey this week? And then you'll be in there for your first selection. I've kind of made this argument throughout the space to where Zander should be the favorite. So I don't want this narrative to get lost, but there is a very strong big three according to my math. And I don't always agree with where DraftKings or Oddsboards placed some of these golfers near the top. But this to me was one of those spots where Zander should be the favorite. I thought it's very close between Hideki and Colin Moracala. There's a bit of a gap from those three to everybody else. And it's going to lead me into my pick right now. There was one golfer for me that I was much higher on than public consensus. I thought was going to be when this started. And we've seen this number just get decimated from the opening price. I got them at 35 to one at open. You're going to find more in that like 25 to one range now. There's a lot of, I don't want to call them syndicate places, that provide information that I think a lot of people end up copying. And unfortunately, yes, exactly Kurt Kitiyama with it. So one of the things that I found from within my model. And I don't want to say all strokes gain data is exactly equal because what Kurt Kitiyama has done is not necessarily the same as when he does it in lower field tournaments like last week than when you do it against Scotty Scheffler or Zander Schoffley. So not all strokes gain data is going to be equal in this spot. But when I ran over the last 24 rounds and look for the best ball striker in this field, albeit in a weaker contest, Kurt Kitiyama was the number one player for me in ball striking. And normally what I want to find and specifically here when you're obviously taking a ton of ownership into account here, I think he's going to be the second or third highest own player on the board when it's all said and done. I normally want to see that increase in projected putting. It's something that I'm always looking for. And unfortunately we don't have that answer here from Kitiyama. I don't know if you could really put them anywhere where you're going to get that answer. But the one thing that you do have that's at least noteworthy is you have a harder scoring course. And a lot of times and Hideki Matsuyama throughout his career has kind of been the poster child for this answer. You throw him on difficult scoring courses and all of a sudden you don't need to make as many putts to actually win that event. So we've seen Kitiyama go to a tournament like Bay Hill take down that title in a much stronger field than this. I think the strokes gain metrics are really pointing in a positive direction for him. Don't love the ownership. Didn't necessarily foresee this happening when the week started. But really like him this week as what I deem to be the fourth best player in this tournament. Yeah, look, I mean, Kitiyama's approach numbers speak for themselves at this point. Like he has been absolutely striping it. I think it's perhaps surprising that he is the best in this field on approach in the last three months. Now, even if you go to somebody like DataGolf, DataGolf used true strikes games. So they actually weight the strokes gained based on the quality of the opposition that you're playing. They basically like break everything out compared to what Zen to halfway would be expected to do. It was like the average plus two strokes gain golfer. And so, Kitiyama leading by not even a small margin. He's got a sizable gap at the top in terms of approaches promising. I agree he's going to need to find the putter. The tournament that he does, he's probably going to come out and have like a dug-in type of performance where he finished, you know, dug-in for a second last week and the week that he can come out and put it like even just even part. He's going to continue for tournaments for sure. A little bit chalky. You are going to need to be a bit clearer how you deploy him. You can start with like I've examined it. Kitiyama is going to be a really chalky start to a build and then push you into very similar spots further down the board to a lot of other line-ups. What is again, their selections and they have taken Boho Hossler at 8900 to start off their selections. That is a steal from the audience. I would have taken Boho Hossler on the way back. So I'm going to need to shuffle my line up a little bit and make some other decisions. So I took Boho Hossler at this tournament last year at 40 to 1 and to be honest, given the quality of his play and the weaker field that we see here that we saw in 2023. I would have expected his odds to be a lot lower than they were. It's only dropped about five points from that 40 to 1 mark. He was at last year and he has been on a fantastic tier of golf. Yes, he's still struggled to get across the line. I've said on the show, I'll say it again. I do believe Boho Hossler will win a PDA tournament at some time. He will probably fall into the victory. Last year he was the 36th hole leader at this tournament. He ended up finishing second when he was on my betting card here. I do like the golf course room. I do like the play that we're seeing from him lately. So we just need one more from the audience. They're debating between Andrew Putnam and Doug Ginn. I have a lean between those two although I do like them both. I think they're both playing well. Both came out of the wrong wave last year last week. Sorry, at the Shriners in Las Vegas. They both had really strong performances. The ATBT someone, despite being in the wrong wave. So I think they're both great picks. But I prefer one to the other. But Spencer, you were the audience here. Who would you be going with? Putnam Walker. I mean, anybody who follows my content will know my answer. And I think it's the opposite of the answer that you're going to give would be my guess. I could be wrong on that. As far as the Bull Hostler pick goes, if it makes you feel any better, David, I was going to take Hostler at the 202 there. So there is so much to like about Bull Hostler's game. I talked about it last week when I drafted him on the wrong wave, ends up making the push up the leaderboard. Doug Ginn would have been the selection for me that I would have taken. Like if we want to talk about a player that should have won a golf tournament, to me it's Doug Ginn. It's if you could put this on an equal playing field where he doesn't have a four stroke disadvantage. He was the best golfer in that tournament last week. So I really like that start from the audience of Hostler and GIM. I don't exactly know where I want to go now because pretty much any iteration of the build of how I wanted to do this was going to be kitty yama. Hopefully both of those two names, but at least one of the two. So credit to the audience for a very solid start. Yeah, and I would have said Doug Ginn as well, that would have been my selection too. I think Doug Ginn is one of these guys. I mean, he won the Bean Hogan awards, you know, other players who won that, Victor Hovland, John Graham, Patrick Handley, just the best of the best. And Doug Groom hasn't really lived up to that kind of mental that he had as a college golfer. But we're seeing flashes of it. And I think last week, as you said, like he was in such a bad wave in terms of the weather, like to finish second was incredibly impressive. Again, gaming with putt about only slightly. That's sufficient for Doug Ginn to get into this contingent because his ball striking is great. And this really is a golf course that identifies some of the best ball strikers in the game. So do really like that from the audience. I think if you're not starting with the Xander shelf late, it's a really interesting way that you can start a build there. So very nice job there from the audience. And Spencer, you are on the clock with your second selection, please. I don't know if I necessarily need to take Xander here. Like, I don't know if anybody can afford him and it's not necessarily the route I wanted to go. I'm trying to throw in some random names to figure out where I would be at if I did go, Xander. One of the things I want to say about specifically a Xander Kitty Yama build. I mean, that is probably number one, number two in chalk. That's not necessarily where you want to be. The other thing that I would want to caution people by going this route is I kind of have talked about this in every no cut tournament. I know the narrative becomes that when you go very aggressive near the top and you think that you're down in the $6,000 range and you can kind of just throw darts. That's never the optimal path of taking multiple players down in the $6,000 range. It's just too much where you have to be exact with it. I am going to take Xander. I do not love this. This is not how I envision this build starting. It is the number one player in my model for win equity. It's the number one and number two own players with this start. I feel like I've almost taken on the Joel role right now of just going chalk chalk at the top with the two names and trying to figure it out from the top. I'm going to figure it out from there. I think there's a reason why Joel wins all the time with us. I'm going to take on that. I'll figure this out. I do not love where I'm at though price-wise. I do not love this construction necessarily. Well, where to go audience you? Yep, as access you have got him spinning you. You put Spencer in the realtors and he's had to take the absolute chalk monster start of Xander show play in Kurt Kediyama. I mean, Xander is clearly the class in this build. I don't mind the start at all. It's just you are starting a build like this. As Spencer mentioned, you are going to need to get different. Especially in a large GPP. You are going to have to either leave a ton of money at the table. You're going to have to take some risks. You're going to have to take some risks and plays that you were really uncomfortable taking. In a small field like this you've kind of got to nail it. You've got really got to get five of those guys in the top 10 at least to be taking out some contention as well as the winner. But if Xander goes and wins this tournament, I don't think anybody in this universe is going to be surprised. Absolutely whatsoever. I will commend you on the start and grabbing some great value. I am now seeing where Spence is placed in terms of your salary mate. I'm going to go and live in that salary for a little bit and just make sure that I get the guys from the year that I need to build the rest of this lineup. So I am going to start off with Takumi Kanaya, the Japanese golfer at 7200. Now, we've seen time and time again at this tournament, right? In terms of the structure of it, team players from the Japanese golfer to get an entry into this tournament. Get a PGA to a start. It's a huge deal for them. And typically it's been a really strong field. Like if the top guys we've got to play a tournament in the fall, it was the Zozo Championship. And when you need mealtime inspiration, it's worth shopping king supers for thousands of appetizing ingredients that inspire countless mouthwatering meals. And no matter what tasty choice you make, you'll enjoy our everyday low prices plus extra ways to save, like digital coupons worth over $600 each week and up to $1 off per gallon at the pump with points. So you can get big flavors and big savings, king supers, fresh for everyone, fuel restrictions apply. We're not really seeing that strong of a field this time. I mean, you have got an incredibly strong start in terms of Zander, Morokawa, Matsuyama, the Gala. But then after that, there's a steep, steep drop off in the class this year. And the rest of them are really just guys fighting for their PGA Tour cards going into next year. Takumi Kanaya is in fabulous form. On the Japanese golf tour, he's just finished second. He won and then he finished fourth and this last three starts. Again, he's a talented amateur who a lot of people expected big things from. He's in great form and back in 2022 at this event, he actually finished seventh in a much stronger field at this golf course. So he has shown an ability on this course before in fabulous form. Two wins on the season already. I know that he'll be going out making the most of the stats. He's also very accurate golf, which I do like. If you are going to be either extremely accurate or extremely long off the tee, I think one of those has been a fit into Kumi Kanaya's very accurate golfers. So I do appreciate that for him. The next I'm going to go and take Mac Meissner. He is rating really well, especially in terms of approach metrics. He was third in his last start at the Blake Desert Championship on approach. He was always fantastic though, so I really do like that correlation. He's both strong and long and straight off the tee, which I do think is a real benefit at this golf course. The fact he's got both of those strings to his bow is impressive and with those approach metrics he rates out really well. The other thing I'd mention is that you do see an increased dispersion of shots between 150 to 200 yards on approach at this golf course. Nearly 35% of all strokes, about two more than usual within that range of 150 to 200 yards. Mac Meissner is actually one of the best in this field within that approach range as well. So I do think that he's got that going from sitting 90th at the moment in the fairs cup ranking. So not exactly home and hosed in terms of keeping this PGA to a card, but a stronger finish here will go a long way to securing his stats in 2025. So Spencer, go to you. Any thoughts on Mac Meissner and Kumi Kanaya, and then you will be on the clock. I mean, it feels like I take Mac Meissner almost every single week that we do the show. So anytime anybody takes Meissner, it will be a direct steal. Unfortunately, it's kind of right in that price range, obviously of I have 73 25 left. Meissner is one of the big upside climbers for me in this sheet. Specifically, I don't have an outright ticket on him. I have a very small card this week because I think there's a bunch of different ways that you can view this, but to me, it's the big three at the top. And unless you have one of those big three, I'm not necessarily looking to take on a bunch of exposure. I took kitty on that 35 the one. I took Doug game at 45 to one. I called the card there and I didn't add to it, but I'm going to give a name where I'm pretty sure, David, that if we could go back and I'm sure there's an easy way for me to do this and figure out who has the most ownership ever constructed through three picks. It's going to be me, unfortunately, and I understand that and it's one of those situations right now where I do think that this is still more of a wild card option than the general public seems to think that it is at this particular moment. There is massive upside though. You talked about that long iron proximity. This is a golfer that at his very best was a major championship winner because of his ability to drive the ball and to find his strengths from 200 plus yards. The putter is. Yes, the putter is always going to be a concern, but he gained 3.7 strokes, putting at the Shriners and if you look at the ball striking marks since this restart, I know the pro core championship, there's a missed cut there. He lost 6.4 with the putter, but look at the Sanderson 7.5 approach, Shriners 5 approach. Those are on the positive notes there off the tee 2.7 and 1.7. He also gained 3 strokes off the tee at the pro core. I do think and I will say this, this is a better upside GPP sort of apply. I'm not playing him for safety markets. Like a top 20 is the max that I would be going back to. Like I prefer this as a top 10 top 20 sort of a bet or out to winning, but when we talk about recent strokes gain metrics, number one in my model. I do think that there's an easy way for me to differentiate this lineup, but there's definitely a lot of popularity. There is that I grew up as we knew you took Gary Woodland there because he was a key golfer for me coming back on the team that's going to be taken. It's nearly a year now since Gary Woodland had the branch in the removed and he's spoken an interview a couple of days ago about how he's finally starting to feel like himself again, the results are starting to come. He's also started working with Scotty Cheafless coach by the way for the last two months and that's kind of actually been when his game is turned around and the correlations occurred with terms of his approach metrics coming back, the part of staying to warm up as well. I think there's a lot going for him. The fact that he's both along Australia with the tee and it's such a strong drive with the golf, well I think the real benefit the approach plate is fantastic. Really, really is key to success at this golf course previously. And yeah, as I mentioned, the fact that he's one year out of that brain surgery and recovery from the removal of his brain tumor and so to get his confidence back again. He will have every motivation to come out and play really well here. He's still not completely home and I was to keep his PhD out of a card either so he'll be wanting to make sure that he is staying in the big dance and I think it'd be a very, very emotional one if he was able to complete the victory here. Also finished a fifth as well previously at TPC River Highlands, the golf course that Keegan Bradley won before he won the Zozo Championship. Also Brendan Steel who finished second at Aquaria has nine out of 12 top 25 finishes at TPC River Highlands so another quite good link there in terms of course history. So the audience have gone, they've taken Matthew Kutcher and the coach and Colin Maricar with their two selections, no qualms with either of them really from me, Colin Maricar will see past when they're here. Hasn't won since although you could technically say he got a victory at the to a championship being the lowest 72 whole score at that event in terms of official World Golf rankings he counted as a win that week, believe it or not. Do be us whether that's your count because you don't really feel the same pressure when you're trying to win on the Shadow League board and then that culture is obviously showing some decent form as of late. Some consume maybe about the lack of distance but a player of very, very good class and decent record at the Augusta National Masters obviously as well. It's been to any thoughts on Kutcher and Maricar before you make your fourth selection here. It was inevitable probably in an event like this that Maricar was going to go off the board at some point. I don't obviously I can't afford him so from a game theory standpoint I don't know what you have planned David I think you have enough money that you could definitely have found yourself in that route so. Probably the audience I don't know if you would have done it but probably the audience at least for safety reasons might want to secure their guy. As I said him and Hadeki to me we could argue about what prices should be and I will make an argument that Xander at four and a half to one is too low on it but probably looking at a spot where you know Xander should be about six. More Akawa and Hadeki are more in that seven to one range like it's very close between those three at the end of the day so no problems there. I am going to go to a golfer which unfortunately for me David. I think that I had every potential to win this draft cast last weekend. Unfortunately the McNeil Griffin route would have given me the six to six. I took Matthew McCarty I ended up falling down that path there but even going into Sunday there with the extra player I had a chance in. I got burnt from JJ spawn really not producing and I also got burnt from Patrick Fishburn. Fishburn has been this all over the map sort of golfer over the last handful of weeks you have the terrible performance in his hometown event and then I talked last week about. Being the ultimate buyback spot for him and kind of lands in the middle of I think you got a fair finish for him and a fine result for what you paid for but I would make an argument I understand the proximity numbers leave something to be desired but I would make an argument that a contest like this that is a little bit more challenging might actually end up being a better test for him. All the bogey avoidance numbers the scrambling data points I have all point in that direction for it and it's the same answer I gave last week which so happened to continue again. He has a tournament leading 24 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better. A par at this course on any given day is usually a pretty decent score you're going to need better than that to end up winning but I think he's going to be able to keep himself safer than a lot of players down in this range so I will take Patrick Fishburn here. I also think from an ownership standpoint this is a little bit of leverage I see about 7% so it'll differentiate this very chalky build that I have at the top. Yeah definitely a good differentiation there I've even got a little bit lower I've got around 6% at the moment and I mean bear in mind right and it always happens in these no cut events with a smaller field we've seen it in signature events as well that you do still get higher ownership numbers right so just bear that in mind when you're constructing your lineups and you're seeing a guy at like 6% ownership and that's not necessarily making the guy talk he's probably a current chair in play compared to some of the other guys who play if you're going to get like a 15 to 20% that's going to be quite common in this type of field where some of that ownership convinces a bit. Yeah look I think Fishburn has a really nice well rounded game I think that's potentially suitable for the golf course he's long and straight off the tee we've seen the approach numbers going to really improve in the last three months as well so I think it's a nice buyback spot for him potentially as a contour in route as you mentioned. I am going to go and take another Japanese golf I'm going to take Shugo De Mejera who last week won the Japanese Open their national championship prior to that he finished six and fifth on the Japanese tour and then the fourth two starts before that. Again a golfer who's in great form he's made a couple of starts and masters before finished 18th here previously back in 2022 as well as I mentioned you do just see a number of these usually three or four Japanese golfers who managed to finish in the top 20 at this event. They've just got the ability of being acclimatised they're not jet lagged they've played the golf courses before they know the climate they know how to approach these courses especially with the unique kind of double green system that you get here unique to this golf course because they've a winter green and summer green as well so they know how to approach these courses and the fact that he's on a tier at the moment he said a decent result recently in the Japanese tour and then obviously he's had previous history here in a much stronger event. I think that he is sneaky value potentially down at 6,900 and I'm going to pair him with a contrarian play who maybe shouldn't be as contrarian as he appears and that's Will Zellatoris at $9,000. Now Will Zellatoris is not going to rate out well for you because of the hip injury but since that last year we have seen him start to finally get his distance back to start to get his approach numbers and ball striking back. We really saw that towards the end of the Fedex Cup playoff so he finished 12th at the Fedex St. Jude TPC Southwind as I mentioned earlier in the show this is always a grass course in terms of the fairways. He's won that tournament as well before so you've got that going to and then he finished doing to the BMW Championship the week later and he really started to look like the Will Zellatoris that we know and love. We know that when he said his best is an elite ball striker he's played the Augusta three times he's never finished with the ninth including a runner up on debut and it's six and a ninth back earlier this year so he is just playing, playing better golf now than I think people are giving him credit for. The stats aren't necessarily going to like him and as a result of that you're going to get low ownership here on a golfer who at his best is an elite level talent who actually has won equally if he's healthy. So given that he's had that two month break again I don't have those questions same as Matt Ayama I don't have those questions with Zellatoris of like has he been practicing like he is wanting to get right. He's wanting to get through his injury and get back to his best. He will see this as a key tournament to go and do that and he would have been playing a lot over the last two months to get his game back into top ship shape with other golfers at the top. Who knows how much they've been practicing they've probably taken a month off rightly so given the amount of events these guys play but Will Zellatoris would have been out there getting prepped and ready for this event. So Spencer will go to you for your fit selection and any thoughts on Amahira and Zellatoris here. I think Zellatoris is savvy for all the reasons that you just talked about it. I don't want to say it's similar to the Woodland discussion because Woodland has more of that recent form that you can point towards and I always mention this on the show. I run my data from a much longer duration of time than anybody in the space so somebody like Gary Woodland is always going to be slower to move from me than maybe it would be for whoever that's running it shorter. I think Zellatoris though he's mentioned being healthy we've gotten back to back quality starts from him. There's a certain upside that he possesses and it's kind of one of the things that I talked about where if we want to look at Zellatoris Thomas and I think Justin Thomas is another interest. I think Thomas is another interesting name to talk about here. And Homa Zellatoris and Thomas are so much more ready to get into the winner circle in my opinion than what we have with Homa Thomas graded inside of the top 10 of my model this week. There were upside totals for him when we look at specific cop driving courses that pushed him even higher than that. I think Thomas is a very savvy DFS play and then for Zellatoris here a lot of that same narrative is going to hold true. I like the Zellatoris play quite a bit. As I move forward with my lineup here. I've talked about this in articles and I've talked about it even on shows a little bit there is a massive. Pretty massive discrepancy in my model from a lot of these. $6,000 golfers I think a guy like. Shugo probably is more of like that Japanese the prices there for reason he probably should even be higher than that. I think a lot of these other guys though that you're going to have more stats on in the $6,000 range to me there's a discrepancy between those names. And a lot of these options that we get to in the lower 7,000s whether that's a Mac Meisner a Patrick Fishburne. We can kind of go across the board and talk about a lot of those names. And figure out which way I want to do this I don't know if it necessary I mean I'm kind of in a spot with the audience here where it could go either way I don't necessarily want to end up taking my own pick one way or the other. I mean I was going to say that you're very clearly vamping and rational that this points pizza and just trying to buy time to give it. Obviously the lineup on me on. Yes the lineup went in an opposite direction I didn't start this show thinking I'm taking Xander Shoffley fell to me with the way that this was in. I much prefer this to be kitty on the hostler gim as a start or a deck like any of those options would have been more of the route I would have preferred to have gone but in the situation I'm in right now. I am going to bet on some of the upside of my model I know I always talk about no cut tournaments and wanting to bet in on a little bit of that upside. Obviously there's some volatility that's going to come into play here for a golfer who for the most part is gone miss cut miss cut I know one of those is a withdrawal but. I'm going to take Andrew Novak at 7100 one of the substantial climbers in my model for expected putting on similar green complexes so I like Andrew Novak here. I think there's a lot of upside to be had for the price tag that we're paying. There's volatility though at the end of the day. I do like Andrew Novak this week and it's just again it's got I think probably a similar story maybe to Patrick Fishburne in terms of they were on a tier. Maybe it's a bounce back spot where people are being I'm sorry I don't know why that's I just noticed that the draft board structure. A player who's been on a tier recently who is obviously just like had a start or two that was wrong. People get scared off by the WD of the blank desert and won't realize that he would basically already missed the cut of that point. He had a 54 putt the 54 foot putt for bogey and he needed a power or that for the actually maybe even needed birdie to make the cut. So just to hit through a tantrum and pick up a ball and walk off. So there's absolutely nothing to do with that withdrawal. Stuff like that always puts people off especially if they're not following the game as closely as we are. So good contouring option there and no back of his best is a really good ball stroke and that really is the key for his golf courses is identified over the years. Some of the best iron players on the PGA to it Novak has put himself kind of in that conversation, especially in terms of the quality of the four series guys. So I think he's a good option for you down at that 7100 mark. The audience have gone with Charlie Hoffman accusations that you have stolen that Andrew. Novak so that's why it makes them feel better. The other pick I was going to make was Charlie Hoffman. So it's a steel steel eye for an eye, I guess. Either way. Yeah, well, they've got one back on you then as well. It's one of these things. I mean, they took a hospital and getting to really throwing your lineup into all sorts of jeopardy at the beginning. I mean, I cannot blame you. Walter, you have to take a chance. I'll play in the fifth spot because if you come back to me, like if you hadn't take the Zander, I was already thinking like how the hell am I going to go to line up with. With Matsu Yamarind, shall play at the top and how I'm going to end up with sort of those two four guys from the Japan tour in order to forward my build. It looks like it is Chan Kim to round out the lineup. I'm probably less high on Charlie Hoffman than you are, but I'll leave it to you. Just speak to some of the upside that you see in Charlie Hoffman as a differentiation there. And then Chan Kim, I've always got time for. He was on the wrong side. He didn't have a great tournament at TVZ Samlin, but prior to that, he's been very, very good. And his approach by his accent as well. As I mentioned, Simon. When you need meal time inspiration, it's worth shopping king supers for thousands of appetizing ingredients that inspire countless mouthwatering meals. And no matter what tasty choice you make, you'll enjoy our everyday low prices. Plus extra ways to save, like digital coupons worth over $600 each week and up to $1 off per gallon at the pump with points. So you can get big flavors and big savings king supers fresh for everyone. Fuel restrictions apply. Again, that has been the thing that has found people success around this golf course. So it's been so I'll leave it to you to wrap up on Hoffman and Kim and then finish off your lineup as well. A lot of it has to do with the strokes gain total on, I called it non easy scoring courses. He was inside the top 10 of this field also inside the top 15. When you throw him on strokes gain total for par 70, you throw some of this under 7,200 yard range into the mix. Also inside the top 16 for recent ball striking. So the numbers are trending in a positive direction. And unfortunately, if I really wanted to get different with my build, I could have taken Ben Silverman before I took Andrew Novak. I see 3% ownership. My model likes Ben Silverman this week, but now it has me in this spot and I'll just speak openly on this of like options that are value for me for when we get into the spots here of that I can actually afford. When we get down into the $6000 section, there's only two golfers for me that are inside of the top 39 of my model. That's Chandler Phillips who has this really boomer bus profile. And then Lee Hodges who my model had inside the top 35 for upside. So, you know, you have something to at least look into there for two low on guys. I don't love this selection. I think that the ownership. I've seen it creeping up with the pick I'm about to make. I'll take KH Lee here. Off the T metrics. If you want to date it back to about the last eight to nine, he's gained in every single event. The approach play finally saw a turnaround for him at the Shriners. He gained 4.7. Also gained with the putter. I do worry about this pick though. There's a lot of different ways I would rather go. Very bad from outside of 200 yards. Very questionable in my way to proximity returns. I guess obviously I could have taken Chandler Phillips from it. But I don't love this pick. I'm just taking the player that from an overall rank perspective was the best pick for me. Yeah, sure enough. I mean, look at I think that the audience had done a great job in this draft house. I'm putting pressure on you in terms of the lineup build, which you just love to see in any instance that that does happen. We love a little bit of rivalry. I also don't even have enough money to afford him. So that's not going to happen. Why do you think why you do? Yeah. Celery gate here on the Virginia draft house. The spins just tries to sneakily spend more money than he actually has. Why do you think about what the hell you're going to do in this situation, Spence? I just want to shout out to Stephen Sisley Kid in the Windeley Sports Discord. Also one of our authors and experts over at the Windeley Golf Team. He does all of our ownership numbers. Some of the best projected ownership that you get in the business over at Windeley Premium. Last week, every week he gives out a player who is the Frisky biscuit, right? Who is a golfer who is under 7,000 and who is low owed. He just continues on an absolute tear with all of his results and his insane brain play, which is again another golfer and that some of Bain was CHLE. They finished a bit. The Frisky biscuit was Rico Hoey. They finished dude. And it was just like extremely leverage delivered again from Stephen over at Windeley. Another great reason to jump into the description below and grab the promo so you can get access to not only his ownership numbers, but the insane leverage that you can gain getting guys it. All four percent ownership, I think K actually was in the end to last week. And then Rico Hoey again next to no ownership finishing. Dude, it was incredible. So fantastic work from Stephen. Just want to shout him out. In the meantime, Ed says he is a legend. Albert says he's different and awesome. What's not awesome is spends are sneakily trying to spend more money than he actually has on the draft car. So spends. Now that we've self-identified that issue, what are you going to do with your Stephen thousands dollars that you hit for money? As everybody can tell, this was the pick that I obviously wanted here after making selections that I couldn't take. I'll take Carson Young. You look at the ball striking marks from him. He's gained off the tee and I believe 10 straight tournaments. He's gained on approach very marginally and five straight. Better upside climber for me than a lot of the names in this range. I talked about Phillips. I think that might be a little bit more boomer bus than even this Carson young route is here. If we want leverage 2.5% ownership, there are a lot of horse routes we can go for a golfer that is inside the top 25 of my model for weighted scoring. Do you have it? Yeah, I don't mind Carson Young at all. Definitely a player who can pop on approach. I think it's real key. I think another option in that range who I think is really low floor but potentially high ceiling just in the lower who we've seen previously has been really good on approach. I think Carson Young is a fine pick. I do like in the feel like this leaving a few hundred dollars on the table is not a bad thing whatsoever because I think it just gives you some more options and terms of where you can go. I'm not going to leave any money on the table because I'm the defending champion of the draft cast and I want to win again. I'm going to go take Minwili. I don't think it's necessary the best golf course fit for him in the entire universe because Minwili can struggle a little bit on approach. But where we have seen Minwili really play well is on these tougher course setups, things like the US Open where you do need to compile a score and be a bit more strategic. Minwili has found success on those type of courses and we've never really seen the score blow out at this tournament. The lowest winning score was Tiger Woods in the initial edition where he won back in 2019 I want to say. In he shot minus 19 is the lowest score. The oven there has been 15 under or higher. So it is kind of a golf course where you've got to take your chances when they present. Minwili is always a chance of an eagle or two. I do think he possesses high outsides and I'm getting low enough ownership at 9300. I feel for a golfer of a needs talent. He's only at 12% because you've got Justin Thomas right there at 25 and Kiki Yammer at 22. I know that you like Justin Thomas as well. I like him this weekend. He'll be featured very shortly as we wrap up the draft class. Yes, XC's sneak hit back on courses. Yeah, we've seen that as well. Few club down spots. Minwili has played pretty well. Spence while I bring this draft, we've got a little bit of time left. So I was just wondering if you have any thoughts here on Minwili? Well, I do actually. This actually takes me into a matchup that I have. We'll take a little bit of a longer segment for this than I planned on giving. So one of the things that happens during no-cut tournaments, and I think Minwili falls perfectly into the section, which is why I'm afraid to take him on in this spot. When you find golfers with really high ceilings inside of my model and extremely low floors, typically in a tournament with a cut, that works very well because miscut equity comes into play. It is much different for a tournament like this where you give the number one expected total driver. I obviously talked about that I added more weight to driving than most people that I had for this course. He's also an extremely good player from outside of 200 plus yards and has an ability to scramble in some of these spots. So I think you get a golfer here with a ton of upside. The one thing that keeps coming into play though for me is when we have a tournament that doesn't have a cut, I also want to take golfers that I like a little bit more. My narrative is always fine-fade candidates that I'm looking to take on. I've talked about Kitiyama already a million times throughout this show. I bet Kurt Kitiyama over Minwili at -115. That number has been more pushed up into that -125 to -145 range depending on where you can find it. This is me backing Kitiyama opposed to any semblance of the word of me fading Minwili. I actually think he's an intriguing GPP target but you have to know what you're signing up for with him because there is an upside but there's definitely a downside that's going to come into play. But for a match up here with the golfer that I think is the fourth rate of golfer, I will take Kitiyama in this spot. - Yeah I actually like that a lot. Look at Kitiyama being on the board there. It's probably my final pick I want to take him over Minwili for sure, the approach metrics are there. And I think in terms of a match up there's not really what you want Mike because you are looking for that safety kind of aspect of a guy who can perhaps just exceed someone who is a bad week and Minwili can be hittleness with the approach to excuse the pun but he really can be. He's boom or bust to the highest degree where's Kitiyama showing some real consistency lately. Especially with his ball strength and especially with the approach. I do like that from a match up perspective. Moment you've all been waiting for of course is the first round of leaders. Obviously we had 40 to one to have a Pinterest last week, huge victory. And as I said what a week to head a 40 to one first round leader along with the 35 to one outright. I've only got three to give out this week because one of them is fairly low odds and the other two aren't that much higher to be fair. I'm going to go with a Diki Matsuyama at 17s. You can get him with five places over 3, 6, 5 as well to be the first round leader. In three of his last four starts a Diki has started the first round in first, second and second. So he has been consistently finding his way in these first rounds. As I mentioned at the top of the show a Diki Matsuyama will be putting a lot of time and effort into this tournament because he has the public have an expectation of the Diki Matsuyama when it comes to him playing in Japan. He is representing his nation. He is the flag bearer basically for their country in terms of golf. So he will come out firing in my view in 17s I think is great value compared to less than half of that for his win odds for the tournament as a whole. Justin Thomas you mentioned at the top of the show I really like a bounce back from Justin Thomas as I mentioned. It's kind of similar narrative to Will Zellaturus in a way of Justin Thomas hasn't had a fantastic year. It's been better than last year but hasn't been a great year for Justin Thomas. He missed out on the President's Cup spot that will sting for him and he would have been putting time and effort in terms of getting prepped and showing up to the spot from really two plays. In his last five starts three of those he's finished first second and third after the first round and I've led his approach metrics as correlation to Augusta National as well. I do think he wins the Masters at some point too so I think that there's a nice correlation there with Justin Thomas in 29s as a bureau generous number. And finally wrapping up with both Hosler at 36s he's had a first and fifth in two of his last five starts after the first round and he was the 36 whole leader here last year so he's tuning up now in an even better form. His game looks really on point. I think that he can go out and potentially spike at first round. Almost like there's more than an outright because of the fact that we have seen him get speed wobbles towards the end of the tournament. So last year when he finished seeking for us we tipped at 40 to one he shot at 70 and the final round which was really what cost him victory when Kolomarikawa came over the top of him. And I think at 36s for a first round leader by Hosler is an interesting option. Spence any thoughts on those before we wrap up the shot? I like the Justin Thomas call from you quite a bit. This feels like a very savvy spot to jump in on him for first round leader. The only other two names that I would add would be the two outright said I talked about in Kitty on the and GIM. I kind of agree with you though with this Justin Thomas play. I'll probably end up joining you on this before this is all said and done. I just think that if he's at his best he is never ever in this strength of field higher than 20 to one. Like he just never runs. We just haven't even seen an absolutely dreadful Justin Thomas lately. Like he was bad. Like he was really bad in 2023. I think a lot of people have gotten up the patience on Justin Thomas. He's won on a tough tree like golf courses before PGA Championship for example. And his best is one of the best ball chugs in the game approach really does matter around this golf course. So Spence it's been an awesome evening. Great change to you. I hope Joel is out there somewhere in the world on this having a fabulous birthday. We wish him the very heavy birthday and having him on the show again shortly. You won't actually get to see me for a couple of weeks. I'm going to have a seize on a work trip and then I'm coming back by Melbourne. I'll be visiting the Melbourne Cup when the show broadcasts next in two weeks time. So for those based in America. It's like the Kentucky Derby of the rest of the world is one of the biggest football spaces in the whole world. First time going so it's going to be an awesome time looking forward to that. Spence anything you want to add before we rip the show up? No, I, you know, I do want to tell everybody. I know we're in the fall season right now, but we always get such a great turnout on this show. And without the audience, we wouldn't be able to do this every single week. So just want to give a shout out to everybody who tunes in becomes a part of this draft with us. And it is just as much of this show, whether it's through the banter or through the picks. So, you know, thank you to everybody out there. And, I don't know for me. I mean, kind of words have never been spoken on Pgentre outcasts, but we do have the best fans in the business. Thank you all so much for tuning in every week. Maybe let's show what it is. The banter is fantastic. You never hear those words. But I heard Joel being on the show this week with you. So that's fantastic to see as well. Thank you all so much for tuning in. Make sure you jump into the description below. Grab the promo link. Make sure you get all of that out. So I feel another one coming soon. We're hitting them in an outrageous rate at the moment. But all I've really got to say. 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The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily ZOZO Championship First-Round Leader picks!
