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1st and Stix: NFL Week 6 Analytics and Main Slate Breakdown

Duration:
36m
Broadcast on:
13 Oct 2024
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other

Stix is back with another week of Fantasy Football Gems and uncovered trends. NFL Week 6 is shaping up to be a potential jackpot. Find out who to target with @StixPicks AETY Model for your lineups and get ready to WIN!

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How do you feel when you switch to Geico and save on your car insurance? It's like going to work on one Thursday morning and thinking to yourself just one more day until Friday. But then somebody in the elevator says, "Happy Friday!" Then you check your phone quickly and discover today is actually Friday. So yes, happy Friday, random stranger in the elevator. Happy Friday, indeed. Yep, switching and saving with Geico feels just like that. Get more with Geico. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. [Music] Week 6, draft Kings main slate breakdown. Thanks to everybody for the support so far this season. I greatly appreciate it. If you're new to the show, welcome aboard. Sorry for the delay this week was out in Vegas for a work thing and good God being 32 and staying up till 4 or 5 in the morning in Vegas every night just hits differently these days. So yeah, needed a recovery day yesterday. Needed to get through projections and obviously all the injury reports. But another awesome week in week 5, seeing people in the Discord at Windaily Sports. You could sign up there for 50% off everything using promo code STICKS. That is STIX. Again, this is where all the projections, like receptions, passing yards, completions, pass attempts. All that good stuff is customer facing there. So everything that the 80 model does behind the scenes on my computer is being shown over at Windaily Sports. So it's excellent for prop bedding, excellent for, you know, start sits and season long. All that good stuff just kind of seeing where the edges may be in the market and especially using our prop model that, you know, takes into effect the spread, the juice that you're laying there and figures out what type of edge you have on a player prop using the 80 model. So it's been fantastic. I believe overall right now, if you don't have access to the bedding sheet that I share on Google Sheets, it is, it's been hot. I'm, I think the good thing there is like I'm waiting for like every play to have at least like a seven to eight percent edge minimum. So it's not like a shit ton of plays. I know a lot of people on Twitter out there will have like 15 plays a week. Jason over at Windaily, the owner there. My God, that guy loves betting player props and just doesn't stop. Keeps getting tickets to the window. So I'm not being that aggressive with it. But so far through five weeks, we have never had a losing week yet. And week five was fantastic again, three out of four. But yeah, it's, it's not going to be a ton of volume, but we are over 11 and a half units of profit. If you're betting a hundred a game or a hundred a prop, whatever the case may be, you know, over a thousand dollars in profit. So that's a fantastic there or a thousand dollars return, whatever. You know what to know to do there, but week five was fantastic again. My GPP line I've talked about last week, absolutely loved Lamar. In the game changer, that $1,500 single entry that I like to play is like my main lineup. Lamar was only eight percent owned. I thought a ton of people would be on him. I did talk about Chase being like the preferred bring back obviously, but AK I just couldn't afford him. So my line was Lamar, Josh Jacobs, and ended up needing a value running back. Gervante Williams, oh, 16 points and seven percent owned. He was stopped on like the two inch yard line. Like that touchdown would have been huge for me. This lineup had a hundred and seventy points. Used Lamar naked T Higgins was the bring back. It's locked in Michael Pittman. I know he didn't have a fantastic day, but 14.7 points and not bad. Brian Thomas Jr. was the core play the week at wide receiver. Only 17 percent owned. I don't know how more people weren't on him at his price of 5900 against Indy and all the cover three that they ran. And Brian Thomas's expected target share against cover three. Like we talked about on last show was through the roof. Just great play. I mean, the guy's awesome. Ended up, although I wanted nothing to do with it. This lineup kind of called for it because I did want a piece of Sam Fran. I'd use Debo in the flex. He had absolutely nothing. And of course he goes ape shit on Thursday night this week. It sucks because if Debo gets like 15, 20 points, I think I'd damn near take this thing down for a hundred K. Tucker Craft was the punt tight end that I used. And I did use Houston's defense at zero percent ownership. I did like that spot. You know, Josh Allen, very capable of throwing the ball away and no Khalil Shakir, which I think that offense needs dearly. Hopefully he's back on Monday night, but Texas defense kind of just didn't do a whole lot. Only one sack, but no turnovers there. But yeah, man, if fucking Debo does anything, that lineup just crushes. But it did get through the pay line. It was finished 23rd in that tournament. Good return there. Let's get into the injuries for week six. We got a lot of them. We'll start here. We'll go like team by team. I feel like some of the feedback I've got and said that would be easier to track. So we'll go to the commanders. No, Brown is likely back. Brian Robinson is highly questionable. This should be a very interesting game. Very high total. We'll get into that in a little bit. So keep an eye on Brian Robinson. Even if he does play, I think he's going to be on a severe pitch count because that needs seems to be bugging him a lot. Ravens, linebacker Malik Harrison, who's a really good runstopper, should be out on defensive tackle. Broderick Washington out. So again, like this could be a decent spot for Washington running backs, but Brian Robinson is probably out for the Packers. I thought Jayir Alexander would be back last week, reading like his interviews and seeing him talk about it. Like it still seems questionable, but limited all through the week. Luke Muscravon IR Romeo Dobbs should be back for Houston, mixing and Damian Pierce are out or back in. I'm sorry. Nico is out. And I believe Nico's on the IR. cornerback Camari Lasseter is out. Safety Jimmy Ward is out. And Robert Woods is out. I don't think Robert Woods really matters to anybody, but never know if you're in a deep, deep, deep league. Or it's probably too late in guillotine season, so be ever considering starting Robert Woods. But if Nico was out, maybe Robert Woods had a little bit of a bump up, but that should be probably now Xavier Hutchinson. And obviously, you know, we'll talk about the wide receivers Stefan Diggs and Tank Dell shortly. For the Patriots, Drake May is starting, Kendrick Bourne is, I think going to be off his pitch count this week. So we'll see. Remindre Stevenson is out. KJ Osborne likely back. That should bump up a little bit for Antonio Gibson. But like I said last week, I just don't believe that this guy can take 15 plus carries. So we'll see what happens. Eagles, damn near full bill of health. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are back for the Colts. Sounds like Anthony Richardson is going to play Pittman, I guess. They said he was going to potentially be on IR or more than likely going to be IR. He's a full participant yesterday in practice. So I don't know what half these reporters are doing. I don't do their job. So I'm not going to say it's easier or anything like that. But I don't just, that's like a weird big miss out of Indy. Jonathan Taylor still allowed. Quiddie Pay is back defensive end. Obviously, to force Buckner on the IR still, but Quiddie Pay helps a lot. Titans will love us his back. Jamal Adams is out for the box. Christian Isine is out. The safety trade Palmer wide receiver out. Rashad White likely out. Jalen Mick millions who did not win as him Mick Million in week two or three. When DJ an hour on him is back. Stair cars out. Kendrick Miller likely back. That'll be interesting. Cesar Ruiz is out. Tasm Hill is out. Will Harris out Pete Warner out. Saints pretty banged up. Let's see what Spencer Rattler's got. Broncos pretty clean bill of health. Josh Reynolds seems to be like the only notable guy that is out. Chargers Gus Edwards out. Joe Altis back. Derwin James back from suspension. Sante Samuel Junior and just see your Taylor, both their, I guess above average. I mean, Sante Samuel Junior. I like a lot, but just see your Taylor as well with him. Both out. Sealers Demonta Casey out. Alex Heismith out. Corderell out. And Jalen Warren likely back. I think he was a full participant Friday. So we should see him, which stops my love for Naji Harris, but Naji Harris kind of reminds me of Gervonta Williams. Just doesn't do a ton with the football, but the volumes there. Raiders, Devonta Adams is pouting still. He's out. Michael Mayer out. Panthers, they are banged up. Austin Corbett, the center out. Backup center Andrew Ram out. Offensive taill, or offensive tackle. Taylor Mountain out. Josie Jewell, linebacker out. Judavian Clowney out. Timing Trembl. I don't think he matters, but he is out. I didn't mean that like offensively. Tommy, you matter to your family. You matter to the Panthers. You just don't matter to fantasy players at this time, but you know, I still believe in your town. So get back out there, get healthy. See what you can do another day. Cowboys around Bland. Questionable Eric Kendrick's out. Micah Parsons, of course, is out. Let's fly through this. It is Saturday. Let's get another 25-minute pod. That was a lot of fun. First game we got Washington and Baltimore. Let's go through ownership here. At the quarterback position. Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson is going to be the talk of the slide. It looks like in Jane Daniels, very low-owned. I like both of these guys. Obviously it's a very high total. This game opened up at 52. And Baltimore laying six and a half. It is now 51 and a half. And Baltimore is laying seven or six and a half, depending on where you're looking. I love both of these guys and tournaments. I love both of these guys in cash. I think Jane Daniels is probably going to be my cash game quarterback. We've seen like three to four percent ownership. I don't know. Like I feel like this is a Derek Henry spot more than anything else. So I don't know if I really want to pay completely up to Lamar Jackson, but we'll see. Runningbacks, Derek Henry, 15 percent owned. Love him here. Again, I mean, the price of AK is fair. Without the, you know, we don't really see a ton of past catching, but that is a fair price without the past catching. Brian Robinson Jr. 6400. If he goes, I have no interest. The guy I like a ton here, and you got to tell yourself like these type of scripts was working on my lineup with my buddy this morning. I'm kind of like talking about it. Like, all right, what did like my original lineup story tell? And it didn't really tell one. So I kind of rebuilt it. I was like, all right. Well, Baltimore's got a 29 and a half implied team total. I really like this spot for them. I love Derek Henry can't afford them in my main lineup. So I was like, okay, well, obviously the secondary for Washington sucks, and they should spread it out a lot. And I, you know, Washington's continues to play a ton of cover one and cover two. So they do have two high safeties a lot, but against cover one, like that is Rashad Bateman. That was a great call last week too on the coverage there and playing his player prop. And I did not play him to score a touchdown. I don't really do that. But Bateman got through for us. It was a great value in DFS if you listen to the show. But this is a great spot for Bateman in Zaflowers. Should be a little bit of the boost to the tight ends, but we cannot really anticipate who that's going to be. And then Washington blitzes a lot still. So Zaflowers love him here. So I was like, all right. I want a piece of a key contributor to Baltimore. Zaflowers is pretty cheap at 6500. That was a guy I chose. But if I could pay all the way up for Derek Henry, that would be my guy. And my story here is that Baltimore scores at Will. They've been scoring at Will for the past couple of weeks. I don't think that stops. They're healthy. This should be another great spot for him against a very beatable defense. No Brian Robinson Jr. Austin Echler is only 5600. I'm telling my story that Baltimore gets out to a good lead. Austin Echler, like his floor, is probably four or five catches for 40 to 50 yards. Like just the receiving game of him is a very solid mid-tier wide receiver. And he's priced like a mid-tier wide receiver at 5600. Now you add some carries on, especially Brian Robinson Jr.'s out. Like yeah, we'll see McNichols. And obviously Jane Daniels is going to run a ton. But Austin Echler seems like this could be a ceiling spot for him at a very cheap price. So I like that. Wide receivers talked about Zaflowers. Terry McLaurin. I'll never talk y'all if I'm 6400. Should be a great game script. I really did like Luke McCaffrey going into the week, thinking no Brown was out, but it sounds like no Brown's going to go. So that kind of takes my love away from him. Zach Hertz is probably in a very good game script. Zach Hertz just doesn't have a ceiling. So if I like play Zach Hertz, it's like a cash game type of guy. I do think he's cash viable at 3700. Great game script again. Should be passing a lot. Middle of field should be open in Baltimore. We always see a good bit of mix of man and zone. And if they get big leads, they play a lot of cover six. But that should be advantage to Terry McLaurin and Eartz and a lot of check-down sauce snack or based on the coverage game here. And obviously we got a handicap game script. So I do like Zach Hertz. I did get him as my first player prop at over 25 and a half yards on Fanatics. I have a feeling my betting at Fanatics is going to be done soon. Seems like they're pulling a threshold on fucking everybody. So beat him while you can. All three of my player props are at Fanatics this week, which we'll get into the other two here shortly. Not playing pin the tail on the donkey with the Baltimore tide ends. So yeah, moving on to Arizona Green Bay. It sounds like there could be a lot of rain and a good bit of wind. I think the Midwest or upper Midwest here, Chicago to up to Green Bay is due for a ton of wind tomorrow. And today I played, you know, hope. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds. Because Progressive offers discounts for pain and full, owning a home and more. Plus you can count on their great customer service to help you when you need it. So your dollar goes a long way. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save on car insurance. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates, potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. [MUSIC] How do you feel when you switch to Geico and save on your car insurance? It's like going to work on one Thursday morning and thinking to yourself just one more day until Friday. But then somebody in the elevator says, "Happy Friday." Then you check your phone quickly and discover today is actually Friday. So yes, happy Friday, random stranger in the elevator. Happy Friday indeed. Yep, switching and saving with Geico feels just like that. Get more with Geico. We're playing golf later this afternoon and it does look windy. So I think we're getting some remnants of the storms down south. I hope if anybody's from Florida, just got family out there. I hope everybody is safe. That shit is extremely scary and that absolutely sucks. That's just the volume of these storms just back to back. It's terrible. So hope everybody's okay if you're listening. You know, awesome that you. Everybody made it out. Hope you're your family house. All that belongings, all that good stuff. Your loved ones are good. Like not a whole lot I could say about that other than, you know. Hope everybody's safe. That shit sucks, man. So moving on to Arizona Green Bay again, sorry. 47 and a half was the opening total. And Packers Lang 5, we're seeing 47 pretty much everywhere. Packers still Lang 5 or 5 and a half. Kyler Murray is going to be sub 5% owned. I like the spot for him. I like the game script for him. I don't think Green Bay's defense is nearly as good as it should be on paper. I just don't like how much Arizona is taking the air out of the ball. I do think that changes this week, but the weather's kind of like, okay, fighting me a little bit on my theory there. So probably a situation I'm not going to invest a ton in. Jordan Love, 6600, 5 to 7% owned. It is what it is. I love the spot for Josh Jacobs and the running back side of things, 20% owned there. So what I'm seeing, I think it'll be under that. James Connor right around 5% owned. You can play both those guys. They get a ton of work and we love seeing running backs. I get 15 plus touches. Both these guys do that and get a little bit of work in the passing down game. For Green Bay's defense here, they run a ton of zone. A lot of cover three, a little bit of cover two. And obviously, everybody's going to play a little bit of press man sometimes. But this should be a fantastic fucking spot from Marvin Harrison Jr. He's like 2% owned. He was my favorite wide receiver for tournaments going into the week. Again, weather is kind of scaring me off of that. Probably a situation I'm going to fade. Jayden Reed, 7K, the price is way up there. Again, most weeks until further notice, I'm not going to handicap the Packers' offense. It's damn near impossible. I've never met anybody that could really do it. Jayden Reed is obviously like the preferred guy if you don't care about price. Definitely not playing wicks. How did that chalk work out for everybody last week with Dontavian wicks? I know Bow Mountain didn't work either. But we did talk about Bow Mountain and budding his receiving under on the live stream. So if hopefully you guys check out the Sunday morning live stream on YouTube, the win daily sports page. It is free every morning at 11 a.m. Eastern, 10 a.m. Central. So yeah, Marvin Harrison Jr. Jayden Reed, I don't mind what Michael Wilson, some 5% owned. I think he's got a boost up in coverage here too. And this guy is getting a ton of work. Again, weather is scary. Tight end, you can go back to Tucker Craft. But 4800, probably a hard fucking pass for me. If when he's in the 3K range, I get it. You know, last week, it kind of it's like you needed him in DFS to cash. Otherwise, all the chalk donkeys and myself included somehow. I took Tucker Craft because he was the only guy that fit. I would have taken Colby Parkinson, but it didn't fit with my team. So I lucked out with following the Tucker Craft. You know, goldmine, I guess we want to call it that, but everybody had them. Trey McBride's my favorite tight end on the slate again, weather. Houston, New England. Man, fuck this game, right? Like, I don't think I'm going to say that about a lot of games this week. Opening total, 37 and a half sitting there. Houston laying 6 and a half to open. Now 7 at circa. Pretty much 7 everywhere. I mean, I don't know. Like, Tankdale is in a really good spot, but we should also see some rain here in this game. So I don't know. CJ Stroud, 7K, not paying 7K for Stroud in a game where I don't think New England can keep up at all, but interested in see Drake May. Interesting to see how much he rushes. Joe Mixon, 6900, probably a little too expensive for his first game bag, especially if Damian Pierce is there too. And Dyero Gumbawale has been pretty effective. So not interested in any running bag, even Antonio Gibson. No fucking way I'm playing that. If you're on it, I get it. That's fine. Like, the volume should be there in season along with bi-weeks and injuries. You probably got to play them if you have them. Stefan Diggs, 7,400. This should be a great matchup for him. New England runs a lot of cover 1 and covers 0. They press a lot 2. Should be a great spot for him and Tank. Tank, 6,200, 10% own. Great price, great anticipated volume. Just don't see a ton of back and forth here, but Tank's more of probably like a cash game play for me to find Diggs that's at 7,400. It's going to be a fade. I would much rather have Marvin Harrison Jr. for cheaper, but again, the weather. I don't need to keep saying that. Did have some interest in jail and pull open out with Kendrick Bourne coming full back. I don't know who's going to be the ex in that offense. Kendrick Bourne was on a pitch count last week, and Kendrick Bourne has been very, very solid in his tenure at New England. Tight ends, Dalton Schultz, yeah, cool. Like he's her guy, I'm third down, but I don't know. Unless he gets in the end zone. I don't see a ceiling game from him. Hunter Henry, maybe the volumes there with a rookie quarterback. Cool, fuck that game, right? Tampa Bay, New Orleans. Let's go to the quarterbacks here. And the spread opened up at, total opened up at 42. Tampa lane 3.5. Pretty much sitting there. Spencer Rattler, I thought he'd be like 30% owned. I don't expect much from him. I still do trust Kubiak. I know he's kind of coming back to life a little bit over the past couple of weeks, but Kansas City's defense is fucking really good. Outside of Baltimore, they have played really good against everybody. So not concerned there, but a quarterback that is 4K is kind of how I look at it. Again, I thought he'd be like 30% owned. People are just going to take the free square. Even if he's not that good, if he has 18 pass attempts, like we should get to 13, 14 points. And he's got upside. He could chop the ball, but you know, Caesar Ruiz being out. Like, I don't know. Tampa's going to blitz a shit ton. You know, tuples, that's probably what's going to happen. So I don't know. I'm going to play him. He is my main GPP quarterback right now just because I need the savings. And I want to get different at some spots. Baker 6500, good spot. I just, I do worry about the back and forth in this game. I don't think this is a shootout at 7700. I know that Alvin Kamara grades great and everybody's models. I have no interest. I just, I don't know, especially with Kendrick Miller coming back. Alvin's been kind of banged up. I do should see a lot of checkdowns and stuff. But if they blitz that much, make sure I guess he can go out in the flats and everything. But I feel like they're better off bringing in like Jamal or someone to pick up that blitz and just abuse Alave against the cover three. So I like Alave here a ton. Bucky Irving 5400 going to get a ton of run. I think you lock him in in cash and he's certainly in play in tournaments too at that price. But I think for me, Bucky's going to be my guy in cash. Austin Echo is going to be my guy in tournaments. Like I said, love Chris Alave not doing the Mike Evans thing against Latimore. Even though I do think Latimore is losing a step. But 7300 when a game I don't think really shoots out. Again, I'm playing Rattler just for the value. Chris Alave, I'm seeing 2% on no fucking way. People have to play him. Not there for Shaheed. Again, I think Tubble's blitz is a ton. I don't think we see a ton of high ADOT despite Rattler wants to chuck it deep. Do love Godwin for the Saints. Like they are playing a lot of cover one and for some reason this year that has been a huge boost in target share for Chris Godwin. You'd think that Mike Evans being the ex will get the guy in man coverage. But Chris Godwin is getting linebackers and safeties on him in the middle of field and he's beating him consistently. So we'll see a lot of man coverage from the Saints and not much blitz. And also see a lot of cover to you pretty old school there with Ryan Nielsen. But yeah, I like Godwin, but in a game that's not back and forth, do I want to pay 6900 for a guy who's like ceiling is probably 18 points in this game? Chris Godwin, no, I don't think I do. I'd rather have Zaflowers for 6500. I'd rather have Terry McClellan for 6400 in a game that I do think goes back and forth all day long. Tight ends, Kate Otten getting a lot of work, 3500. Couldn't won't talk you off that. Joanne Johnson, I was very interested in at first, but going through the coverage, like I think he's going to have to stay back and block a little bit more. I just, I think a Lava is a guy and Rattler's been talking about a Lava. I'll buy in, but if Joanne Johnson was like 0% owned, I'd be interested. But I'm seeing seven. So no, I'm not taking Joanne Johnson. Both defenses probably in play, but more so, the box. The box got to be the Chocti, right? Yeah, 15% owned. Well, I'm going to leverage that and play Rattler and pray for the best. Cleveland, Philly. I'm done with Cleveland. I'm not going to talk you off of Mari Cooper if you want to do that. But yeah, I'm done with the Sean Watson. I'm pretty much done with a Mari Cooper because of the Sean Watson. But 6k for a team that should be chasing points from the get go. Yeah, I get it if you want to do that. Not really for me. This game did open up with a total of 43 points. Philly laying nine to nine and a half. This should be a great spot for Mr. Seikwam Barkley. Obviously you could play AJ Brown against man coverage and a lot of bullets. Like this should be a fantastic spot for him and Cleveland cannot cover this year, which is very surprising, but I fear that this is the offense that I just don't prioritize because I do worry about the back and forth ability of Cleveland. I mean, maybe this is a week that Cleveland can wake up and this game could just shoot out and win someone a million dollars. It's certainly like on paper possible of doing that. But I think my favorite exposure here is Philly implied team total over 25 and a half points. I have no interest in Dallas Goddard. We crushed that one at the Saints game, but I'm probably done with Dallas Goddard for quite some time. And that's a beauty of daily fantasy. You can play Phillies D play Cleveland. See, I guess if you really want to, but yeah, Philly as a team, I'm scared to not have any part of, but can't play everybody. So there we go. Moving on to Tennessee hosting the Colts. That game also opened up at 43 Tennessee laying two and a half. Will Levis only 4800 on paper. It's a great spot for him, but it's will Levis and Tony pot. Like they're going to run a ton. Tony Pollard six K 25% on you probably lock him in cash. I have no interest in Anthony Richardson in that whole situation. With the provider series like yeah, Josh towns is fucking awesome. I think that's the highest guy that I drafted in basketball because that injury he had pre-season just dropped his price and that's been paying off greatly so far. I would love to play a ton of Calvin really 5700. It is a really good spot. We talk about the outside coverage on Indy all the time. But my issue here is that Tennessee small sample size with this offense and Callahan obviously, but Gus Bradley just plays a ton of cover three and Tennessee spreads it out a ton against cover three. Like the matchup is amazing for really, but when we sell Jacksonville, the anticipated target shares for Brian Thomas Jr. against cover three is phenomenal. It was like what did I say? Pushing 40 target share with Tennessee. It's like everybody is like 18%. So yeah, you could play D-Hop, you're not playing Boyd, but I don't know. I just don't want to do it. I think my favorite guy here is Tony Pollard. No interest in any of the tight ends and both defenses probably in play. But Tennessee at 2800, that D is probably my favorite. They're one of the best defenses in the NFL in my opinion too and Anthony Richardson sucks. So yeah, going to that charges Denver. This one's going to be a quick one. It's like a half fuck this game for my terms, but opened up at 35 and a half. Basically, all these games with this low of a total, I'm not going to be very interested in from a DFS. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance, fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds. Because Progressive offers discounts for pain and full, owning a home, and more. Plus, you can count on their great customer service to help you when you need it. So your dollar goes a long way. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save on car insurance. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. How do you feel when you switch to Geico and save on your car insurance? It's like going to work on one Thursday morning and thinking to yourself just one more day until Friday. But then somebody in the elevator says, "Happy Friday!" Then you check your phone quickly and discover today is actually Friday. So yes, happy Friday, random stranger in the elevator. Happy Friday indeed. Yep, switching and saving with Geico feels just like that. Get more with Geico! If you're a maintenance supervisor for a commercial property, you've had to deal with everything from leaky faucets to flickering light bulbs. But nothing's worse than that ancient boiler that's lived in the building since the day it was built. Fifty years ago, it's enough to make anyone lose their cool. That's where Granger comes in. With industrial-grade products and dependable fast delivery, Granger can help with any challenge. From worn-out components to everyday necessities, call clickranger.com or just stop by. Ranger for the ones who get it done. A lot of things and you probably shouldn't be either, but there are a couple of one-offs we could talk about. Chargers are laying three on the road. There is no Gus Edwards, so J.K. Dobbins, 6200. Fantastic spot. I know Denver Sea has looked awesome, but the Chargers run offense looks awesome and J.K. Dobbins looks awesome. No interest in the past catchers like Lab and Conkey. I do believe in this guy and I do believe that he is kind of like the wide receiver one in terms of volume for the Chargers, but this is not going to be a high scoring affair, in my opinion, so I'm out on everybody. Pit Las Vegas, another one. Probably fucked this game. Thirty-six and a half point total was the opener. Pittsburgh laying three, pretty much sitting at both those numbers right now. Justin Fields is going to get another start. I think this is a statement game for him. If you want to get different internments, this is a good spot for Justin Fields. Good spot for Najee Harris, but we did say Jaylen Warren is probably coming back. I have no interest in anal kind of like play the Pittsburgh defense. It's going to be a home game for Pittsburgh and Vegas. It pretty much is a home game for everybody when they go to Vegas. It seems like which is kind of strange because the Raiders use have die-hard fans, but maybe that's their way of sticking it to Oakland for letting them leave. But I don't know if that's actually the case. Just sounds like on TV. It's a home game for whoever plays the Raiders. So, Walt Pittsburgh's defense here. Again, not really interested in Najee Harris. If he's going to be 15 to 20 percent owned, I'm going to be out. I don't know what's going on with George Pickens. You guys are very talented. Doesn't seem like he wants to play hard very often. This doesn't make a great game for him, in my opinion. Like this is a perfect matchup we talked about this two weeks ago with the Mario Cooper being like my preferred play against the secondary. Last week of sudden, we just didn't have the volume. So kind of a, you know, a good spot on paper, but just wasn't really there. So, glad I didn't invest a ton in Corland's sudden. But yeah, I mean Pickens, it's now or never. Jacobi Myers is going to be good to go. It sounds like he's good. So, Trey Tucker, 4,200. Decent spot, but yeah. No back and forth. Atlanta. Atlanta has the second highest implied team total third. I'm sorry, Detroit's got 28. Atlanta 26 and a half, and I see Green Bay 26 and a quarter. So, Atlanta, yeah. Carolina's defense sucks. We know that everybody's kicking their ass. This game opened up as a 47 point total. Very nice total there. I think that Vegas expects that Carolina can stay in this game, which is kind of surprising. I don't think Atlanta's D is as bad as they are playing, but Kirk Cousins, 6,200, right around 8% ownership I'm seeing. I'll take the under. I just don't think people go there. I think it's a great spot for them. But I'm also not like chasing the volume that we had last week. Obviously 500 passing yards probably doesn't happen again. Any adult in 5,200, no interest. Running backs. Chewbah Hubbard is going to be the biggest fade for me ever. Like 30% owned. I'm seeing Chewbah Hubbard just go play Tony Pollard. Chewbah Hubbard has no offensive line. I bet his under 65 and a half rush yards over that fanatics and then Xavier Laguette over three and a half at plus 160. I think they took that one off the board, but three and a half perceptions for Xavier Laguette should not be plus 160. I have projected like 4.4 on the button. So, I probably would have not taken this at even money, but if you give me like plus one and 15 plus 125, I probably would have value on that number, but plus 160. It has left the station. So, don't try to chase that. But B. Gene Robinson is the best player on the board. 6600, every single running back gets right against Carolina. I have no doubts that this is a great spot for him. And maybe you can take like a anytime touchdown but on Tyler L.G. or just kind of handicap yourself there. But they got to get this guy going and this is the perfect spot to do it. Let's go into the coverages here for both teams for Atlanta. We're going to see a lot of cover three. Not going to blitz very much. And they do a really good job closing the middle of the field, honestly. So, I like the outside wide receivers. That's Yante Johnson and Xavier Laguette. And I guess too bad on the check down stuff, but I'm not taking too big rushing and no interest in DFS. I'm not even planning him cash. I don't care about the ownership. Fuck that. He's got to come down to life soon. But all these offensive linemen out for him hurts. Yante Johnson, it is a really good spot in terms like GameScript. I think Atlanta scores at will. Seems like Vegas does too. Like they have a higher implied team total than the Philadelphia Eagles. At home and Atlanta is on the road, not on turf. So, taking out like some of the stuff does matter. Xavier Laguette 4900, one of my favorite plays. Also for salary relief, like I like that, but sub 5% owned. Great coverage. I think that, you know, going on the outside, Xavier Laguette should do his thing, especially if Atlanta scores at will, right? Drake London, the dude's volume is unbelievable. Like Kirk has revitalized in that guy. I love it, but, you know, J.C. Horne's pretty solid. I know DJ Moore beat him up on that one route. I think that the last touch on his second one was on. J.C. Horne, if I remember correctly, but I got to rewatch that game, I guess. But yeah, get exposure to Atlanta, I think is what I'm going to do. And the field is going to have a ton of B-John, 25% owned. I think he should be like 100. I think injury, knock on wood here, is the only thing that stops him from having like a 30 point outing here. Kyle Pitts, sub 5% owned. I don't mind that. Like I can't afford Drake London because I do like, I want a pass catcher and I want a running back, B-John for Atlanta. I want to get multiple pass of exposure to this high team total. Xavier Lagat's going to be my preferred bring back. If you could afford Deontay Johnson, I won't talk to all of them. But it's like Darnell Mooney, 5300. Like it is what it is. He's getting a ton of work. I'll just, I'm going to roll the dice at this tight end spot that Kyle Pitts, even though I said, I think I swore off Kyle Pitts a long time ago, but 4400 for next to nothing owned Kyle Pitts. I love just getting exposure to tight ends in these high team totals. Like that's pretty much what we did with Dallas Goddard. Like people are going to play a ton of London. People are going to play a ton of B-John Robinson. People are going to play a healthy bit of Darnell Mooney. So let's just go with a guy that no one's going to fucking play. And that's Kyle Pitts. So I'm okay with it. No interest in punting down to Jatavian Sanders or whoever the starting tight end. I guess the end time is maybe back to the Panthers. Falcon Seafunds definitely in play. Last game, the shootout everybody wants to get exposure to and for good reason. Is Dallas and Detroit open up at 53 sitting at 52 and a half now. And the Cowboys laying three on the road. You know who to play here. Like Dak probably throws for 350 yards in this game. I don't think that Dallas gets a stop. So obviously you can play Jared Goff to offset the chalk of Jameer Gibbs. I'm only seeing 13% ownership. But again, like Dowdles in play. I know it's not a great spot to run against Detroit, but he's got to get a lot of volume here. Jameer Gibbs, Dave Montgomery, both of those guys are in fucking smash spots. Dallas plays a well, they blitz a lot. I guess it's mainly cover three, but zone blitz. I'm on Ross and Brown, right? Like we talked about I'm on raw against the blitz. My fear here is that they could just do anything they want on offense. So it's like, I don't know if I want to pay up for I'm on Ross and Brown. I don't know if I want to pay 7K for Jameer Gibbs, who splits literally 50/50 with David Montgomery even when it's on the goal line. Like both of those guys to hit a ceiling game has to go just like last week did with Seattle. It's like sure it's possible we saw it happen a week ago, but I don't know if I want to bet, especially in a $1,500 lineup. Like to me, that is a lot of money. So it's like, I don't want to really be that risky with it. It's a smaller field. I feel like it's a way to go here is just take, you know, obviously, if you want to pay up for quarterback decks in a fantastic spot, you could pair them with Tolbert or Ferguson or just go to fucking CD Lam. Like they are going to pass the ball a ton. I think if you just get exposure to one of these key contributors to Dallas, you're getting exposure to Detroit by doing that because Detroit should continue to score. That should feed the passing game for Dallas. CD Lam core play the week with, I think, or Pijon. Pijon's going to be a core play of the week for me as well at the running back position. Trying to think tight end. I'm not going to tell you like Kyle Pitts, but I'm interested there to you. Ferguson cash, probably, right? We got to play him in cash. It's like, Hey, my hurts for me. 5K for Ferguson is great. If you want to get really different internments, Samuel Port is in a great spot. But there it is. I will get the playbook up later tonight. Just waiting on a couple more injury news and just want to see ownership mature a little bit. But thank you guys so much for the support. Good luck to everybody in week six and let's stay hot. How do you feel when you switch to Geico and save on your car insurance? It's like going to work on one Thursday morning and thinking to yourself just one more day until Friday. But then somebody in the elevator says, Happy Friday. Then you check your phone quickly and discover today is actually Friday. So yes, Happy Friday random stranger in the elevator. Happy Friday indeed. Yep, switching and saving with Geico feels just like that. Get more with Geico. Hey, everybody, I'm Trevor Sykama, host of the PFF NFL show here to tell you what you can find on all of our shows throughout the week on Mondays. We have the great release show where myself and Paul Wasserman break down every single game that you just saw in the NFL. On Tuesdays, we have the quarterback breakdown with Seth Galina on Wednesdays. We've got the rookie review, which on led year and the preview for the upcoming week in the NFL. So make sure you are subscribed to the PFF NFL show wherever you get your podcasts.