If you're a maintenance supervisor for a commercial property, you've had to deal with everything from leaky faucets to flickering light bulbs. But nothing's worse than that ancient boiler that's lived in the building since the day it was built. 50 years ago, it's enough to make anyone lose their cool. That's where Granger comes in. With industrial-grade products and dependable fast delivery, Granger can help with any challenge. From worn-out components to everyday necessities, call, clickgranger.com, or just stop by. It's Granger, for the ones who get it done. [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] PGA Nation! We are heading to Utah, if it doesn't lack anything, it's not a cool name, the Black Desert Championship. I am excited. I am intrigued. I think one way to lay out this tournament for everyone, if you have kids, stay with me here. If you have kids, you've heard of the Flora's Lava game. That's what we're getting into this week. If you step on the Lava, you're going to lose. If you avoid the Lava, then you'll do pretty well. Today, this week, the Flora's Lava at the Black Desert Classic. Spence, I see you start at the new house, how are you doing tonight? I'm doing well, Joel, slowly putting it together. I promise you, I will have pictures in the background next week. It's a work in progress over here, but I'm excited to be doing this show with you guys. We've talked about this almost every single week during the fall season, I guess we'll call it here. These are the events where I do think that there is an edge to be had. We have the unknowns of the course. If nothing else, Joel, you kind of talked about it. It's a very unique venue at the end of the day. I'm excited to see this on television. I think it's going to be beautiful from a picturesque standpoint. We'll see if we can dive into some of the data and help everybody out though with some names to consider. I know you alluded to, you definitely have your work cut out for you this week as in not a lot of history or data to understand the course and the metrics, but as you do every week, you bring the rest of the course break that you can help us understand what types of things to look for as we break down this tournament. David, how are you? How are you doing tonight? I'm good, mate. I'm good. I actually watched some of your American rugby soccer earlier this week. I watched the Monday night football, between the Chiefs and the Saints, and it was interesting. I had a wheelchair. You guys call it football. The rest of the world doesn't. Football famously is played with your foot, and they don't really play with their foot then much. Sometimes you have one guy specifically who is designed for using his foot, and everyone else is using their hand from the smiles I'm sensing. Just technically, they don't use crickets to play cricket, so why don't we have to name it by exactly what you do and what you use to play? That's true, but although I think that that is the colonization of a French term croquet becoming crickets, so there's some debatable stuff there. Anyway, I watched the American rugby soccer, and I don't know if you know, but there's a guy called Travis Calci, you might have heard of him. Turns out that Travis Calci and I are both born on the exact same day, fifth of October 1989, so we both turned 35 on Saturday. I'm now closer to 50 then I am to 20, which is depressing, and I have kindly reminded my girlfriend that Travis Calci is currently dating Taylor Swift, so she's basically she's incredibly lucky to have me as the end of that conversation. Well, first of all, happy birthday. Second of all, I don't know if the audience knows this, but your girlfriend is actually more famous than Travis Calci's girlfriend. I don't know if you want to explain who she is or get behind that, but I'll just leave that teaser out there for the audience to guess and try and figure it out. Well, I mean, she's a top secret spy because she can't actually tell me what she does in her day job most of the time, so yes, she is, she's incredibly famous and yeah, you'll be none of the wiser. Good luck. Well, it's actually impossible because I don't think there is a woman in the world more famous than Taylor Swift, so I actually put her in an impossible scenario, but all the well, I am excited to break this down in draft tonight, spends, like I said, you had your work out for you tonight, but I'd love to hear what you're looking for on the course of the Black Desert in Utah. So on paper, we have a venue that's 7,371 yards, par 71 bent grass greens. There are always going to be unknowns about a course when professional golf hasn't been held in that state since 1963. That alone is going to be challenging the handicap for what exactly Utah golf looks like in a vacuum situation there, but I think the construction of a statistical model probably does. And I know this is, it makes it more convoluted because we don't necessarily get an answer here, but like there's more questions than answers when you kind of start diving into this venue. It only finished around a year ago. It was the last course that Tom Weiskoff undertook before his death at the end of 2022. I think if you look at this though, there's going to be some very stark things for television here, unique things that are going to be seen. I wish we had a better field for that reason. The more stark feature is going to be how this course runs through and you've already alluded to this drill, a lava field. It's surrounded by mountains. That fact, it provides one of the most impressive components any property will have all season and it adds to be a regular aspect of a venue that's going to sit 3000 feet above elevation. We saw an example, a much more extended version of that example when they went to Castle Pines and Colorado for the first time. I don't want people to hear that and think that you're getting the exact same property here because that was a course that 330 to 370, everybody was hitting drives because of the elevation. It's going to be more than Arizona. It's going to be more than Vegas next week. It's going to be more than a lot of most spots, but at the end of the day, you essentially have this wide open facility that if you don't hit it so far out of bounds and into that lava boundary that we keep talking about, there's a lot of room to be had out here. So I run a very condensed model at the end of the day, but I don't think that prerequisite for distance is the only thing you should be looking for. There's a lot more that goes in to trying to figure out what's the best way to go about this. I added extra putting. I added extra approach metrics. That would be more of the key stats for me than just pure how far do you hit the ball? I love it. That is the best course breakdown. You're going to find spends. I appreciate you and the work that you do every week on the course breakdown. David, I have a question for you. How is your typing so loud every time you're typing? I'm really? Is your microphone next to the keyboard? My microphone is here. So I have no idea. Maybe I'm an aggressive type of, I don't know, I'm just curiously getting my line up ready because I cannot possibly let spends wind two weeks. I write because we see what happens when spends gets on these runs, right? Like he wins one and then some of you wins like true or in a row. And so like I'm going to, my aim is to curve that in its infancy before it progresses too far and ends up in another Spencer Hall streak in the DFS. It's a good point. Spencer does have a tendency to go on streaks and win bunches in a row. First of all, congratulations on our order of spends as you got the big win. Last week, following up this week, going for two in a row, you did get the chance to pick the order. I know you'll be picking first, David, you want to pull up the draft board and we'll dive right into the draft while we pull that up, spends order. So it's very hard in Vegas. Maybe it's because you used to put coins in slot machines and we don't have that feature anymore. Maybe it's a process of moving, couldn't find a coin, but what I could find here is I have a poker chip. One side is Jimmy Connors winning at Caesar's Palace. The other side, very fitting, is Hope and Crosby at the golf tournament of champions. So I am going to flip this coin to see who comes second or this poker chip here. David, you will be Hope and Crosby. Joel, you take me as a Jimmy Connors sort of a guy. So we will flip it and we will get the order and then I will make my selection. Okay. While we wait, it is Jimmy Connors. I don't know if that can be seen. Thank you. Thank you. It's an early win on the show. I plan on following up with more wins, but I appreciate that. For those of you that might be new, even though bullets have you probably been here before, I encourage you to log into YouTube. You can participate in the draft from YouTube, get in the chat. They have their own team that will be drafting fourth. It works like your typical tennis and football draft where we go one through four, then four through one, so the audience will have two in a row. You will have to stay with in a draft king salary. So the copy out there is you can't just take all the best players. You do need to make sure you can afford each player that you draft on your roster. With the first pick, Spence, you're on the clock. So you guys can blame Joel, unfortunately, for being last. Those were direct orders from the top from Joel to put you guys in the last spot. If I had my way, you guys could have had the first pick over me. We know how that works, but Joel is a very demanding person at the end of the day. So unfortunately, you guys had to go in the last spot, blame Joel, send the request into him of. I just suggest you're nicer to me. Maybe I'll put you guys first, but the way you guys treat me, I can't hide you guys picking first with this attitude. So when I ran this to try to figure out what I wanted to do, I'm going to give a very basic answer right now. And then I'm going to go into why this is the selection and why I've even mentioned this. So I run my model every single week. I'm looking for a specific course build. I then compare that data and compare it to the rest of the field. That is not an abnormal answer. Any good model is going to do that. But what I'm trying to find when I go to that is not every single person that's ranked first and every person that ranks is ranked second has the same disparity from tournament to tournament. It's very important to dive a little bit deeper into those numbers and figure out where is the edge that you have from player to player. And when we get these "water down" fields and a wide open board, a lot of times you expect it to be condensed pricing to where all of the top of the board is in the same general section, books don't know what to do and they throw everybody in there, we'll call it 20 to 35 to 1 on the odds board and kind of pick your poison and go from there. This is not to say that this golfer is Scotty Scheffler. We know this is not to be true. This is not to say that this golfer is necessarily going to win this golf tournament in the same way that Scotty Scheffler wins. But there was one player for me that was, this is a betting answer more than a DFS answer. The most missed-price player on the board, I thought he should have been the favorite when the odds opened up. His odds got hit very, very quickly. We've now seen him more down into that 20 to 22 to one range. I'm going to take Seamus Power. I think Seamus has the best combination that you can find of recent form and long-term data. 17 consecutive rounds of shooting par are better. He also lapped the field in that one category that I kept running over and over and over again in my model. That was combining driving, approach play, and putting, rolling it all into one category. Seamus was so far above everybody else in that category. I don't know why he wasn't the favorite when this opened up. I think he should have been the favorite. I honestly would have been okay with this number being sub 20 to one. It's going to be a little bit more accurate for DFS purposes just because he's up there on the board. But I still think he's one of the better outright numbers on the board if you can get him anywhere in that 20 to one range. Seamus Power. You're right. I mean, if you look at last week, Seamus Power was, he looked good. He was one. What was he? The second highest priced guy last week? I mean, like you said, there's a watered-down field, but I think that pick makes a lot of sense at this point. David, well, I'm up next with the second pick. It's a tough strategy wise this week, especially on the draft because there's no obvious direction that people are doing, right? I feel like everyone's kind of up for grabs, so you don't want to be defensive. I'm going to start with, I'm playing defense against David with this pick. Probably wouldn't have been my first pick, but I'm taking him because I think David will probably take him before I get back and it's David's boy and at 9,200, I think he is upside the win this tournament. I think he's one of the better golfers in this field, you're getting a bit of a discount. He had given an 11th place last week. He didn't have all four rounds under 70. I think he goes back this week with another really good showing and that's Ryan Fox. I think this is a type of tournament. He tends to do, does play well and play up in tournaments, but this watered-down field. Ryan Fox says, "Good talent-wise is anyone that's going to be playing in this tournament." He put together another good week this week. I think he can go out and tie his win the tournament. If not, let's get you a top 10. David, did I get a steal and is that Europe with your first pick? I wasn't going to take Ryan Fox next. I certainly would consider him in the later rounds. I mean, part of the concern for me last week, because I fought on paper that country club Jackson in Mississippi was a perfect fit for Ryan Fox's game in terms of his priorities with his driving distance, his ability, particularly his shorter irons. I thought it was going to be a really good fit. My concern was that he did an interview about two or three weeks ago and he said that he had a niggly kind of hip injury and that was part of the reason why he sort of realised well, when he discovered that he was injured, that that was part of the reason why he has approached me, tricks it for a long way, part of the reason why he had to make some swing changes and was basically kind of just playing through kindness and dull pain. So I had some concern going into last week that that may still be an issue. And actually, even after the 11th last week, I looked at the stats and I saw his driving distance was actually way down the computer normal. That's always a sign for me when somebody's injured, if their driving distance is down, it's like, okay, they're probably still playing through something. Then I dropped a bit further and I looked at actually who had the longest drives last week at the centres and farms and sure enough, there was Ryan Fox in the top 10. So that kind of elated some of my fears. Of course, now Joel's drafted them, so he's down to WD because of the curse. He drafted, who did you draft last week? Piers and Cooney, you gave his, your I think Cooney and JJ's born. JJ's born out of absolutely nowhere WD's, the curse of Joel, is alive and well. And then you took Parker Cooney for first round of layer, who also WD'd out of nowhere. So there is that curse on him right now, but look, I do suspect that this is a course where you've got two drivable par 4s, you've got three par 5s that you can go for. Yes, it's played at altitude. Yes, most of you are going to get to approach most of those, but given Ryan Fox's short game priorities, I think that that's a really interesting way to approach it starting in the 9K. In saying that, I'm incredibly disappointed to miss Jamis Power. The other thing to mention about Jamis Power is that he is a Las Vegas resident, so he is used to playing at altitude, he's used to playing Desert Golf, I would compare TPC Summerland to what we expect Utah's going to be like, and that these wide open fairways, these tons of space, it's like no rough, 50 yards basically that you need to keep it in. But if you're at 51 yards, you're playing out of like near-impossible lies, probably taking a drop, probably taking penalty strokes. So Jamis Power's got a lot of experience there, so we'll just point it to miss out on Power then Fox, but I would have certainly considered Fox towards the end of the drop. All right, did you like your pick in? No, not yet. So I will go and pivot a little bit, I'm going to take Chan Kim here. Look, Chan Kim has been on a really good run, his last seven tournaments, six finishes of booty to do it, or better, died a second in the Phoenix Cup, so doesn't necessarily have to worry too much about the pressure of whether he's going to retain his card or not. But one of the key things for Chan Kim for me is he's got that overall total driving ability, a mixture of long driver, but also accurate as well, and I think it is really key to have that combination of not just complete bombers, but you know, you can't, if you are going to miss, you can't miss too wide because it is going to be quite a severe penalty if you do. And so I like that combination that you're getting with Chan Kim. The other thing I mentioned as well is that he won last year on the Conferry Tour in Boise, Idaho, and altitude as well. So yes, got a good experience playing at altitude previously. We've seen him play well in booty-fish previously, at 12th of the John Deere Classic in the 12th of the Wyndham Championship as well as at the year's goes. So I think that he's just playing very, very good golf, he's a strong driver with the golf ball, and the fact that he's won at altitude before, I think it's very constant. All right, Chan Kim, certainly playing good golf, been mentioned on the show the last couple of weeks in these water-in-found field, I think he's really interesting. Audience, great job getting your picks in. It looks like they're both in. So wow, ahead of the curve, taking on a wrist, a very knee-like play by the audience, going with JJ Spon, French off a withdraw. And Thorperenson, who we drafted last week, had a great outing, a great showing, going back to that well at 8800. I think there's a two solid picks from the audience. Spence, we'd love to get your take on the last round. I'll exclude my pick because that's going to be my favorite selection, obviously. I have a one-on-one of the drafts, so I took the player that I like the most, but I would say of the four other players that have been taken at this point, Chan Kim would probably be my second favorite. David talked about his past success and elevation. Any of the way to total driving numbers have him inside the top 10. He was also inside the top 10 for me for expected scoring for this course. So had an outright ticket on him last week. He was my favorite play on the board in that event. I think he certainly employee once again. I love it. David, we heard your take. Not Chan Kim would love your take on the audience picks, and then you got your second. Yeah, look, I'm probably going to stray away from JJ's pool, and just until we know exactly what happened there with the WD, he has really disclosed what happened, I mean he had a somewhat poor round, but it wasn't just in case if he hadn't had enough and packed up and went home or was there something more substantial to it. Look, I mean, the fact you haven't taken them, Joel's always promising. I mean, that always reduces the withdrawal percentage by approximately 46 percent chance, so there's that factor in there. And then Michael Torp Johnson, lucky, we've seen plenty of upside from him, right, and his ability with the driver in particular, I think, is promising coming in here. So I'm going to go with another golfer who is just playing good golf, and that's Andrew Novak, is on a hot streak at the moment. The approach you can tell from Joel's face to that is a steal, but he's just playing really, really well. Other than 70th at the Scottish Open, and 52nd at the Wyndham, his full line, other than that, since June is 14th, 20th, 7th, 24th, 23rd, so ultra, ultra consistent, and he's doing it in the right way, he's doing it with his ball striking. While I think I will mention, I think, TPC Scott's down on Tom Wisecock to start another desert golf course. Another golf course where you can score, however, if you find the desert, you can get into real, real trouble very quickly. He's played me once, and he pushed me eight, and there was earlier this year in a very strong field, much stronger than this, so I think that he carries across some of that form, continues his run on Wisecock designs, and comes out with another good result here. - Well, Andrew Novak is definitely one of my guys. I mean, I'd probably draft him about like every other tournament that we have to draft, so I obviously like the fact I was going to take him with my next bet, so I'm going to be definitely got the steel there for the reason you said, and you know that is criminally disrespected by drafting, and it's funny because, you know, I like him a lot, I draft him all the time, I would honestly say he's probably big picture better for smaller cash games than, you know, bigging a GPP, but he's pretty consistently a good player and getting you, you know, pretty good results. In these types of watered down fields, I just don't understand why they keep underpicing them, like he should have been at least in the high eights and not low nine games with the way he's been playing, so it seems like they just aren't going to give him his respect and until that changes, especially in these weaker fields, I'm going back to that well every time. Well, I didn't have to pivot, I'm going back to another guy that I would probably consider one of my guys is filling off on the community, all off on our draft for the last few months, but he showed, and he can make butts again, which was a long time before he could make butts, and if Daniel Berger is making putts, Daniel Berger might be the best golfer in this field. I mean, we had an injury, you know, his game had fallen off for some time, but then he came back and he just couldn't make butts, and the ball trick was there, he could hit the ball, he just couldn't putt, and last week he showed, he's found something, he can make some putts, if he's found any consistency with that flat stick, Daniel Berger is going to be dangerous, and then these types of fields, he could be the best golfer in the field, so it's 7700. I love the upside to get with Berger, and what's really interesting here is the ownership is, you know, not low, but it's not crazy. I mean, I thought the ownership would have been higher for a guy like Daniel Berger here. I think at 14%, which is what I'm saying, I'm happy to take that on. Spence, you got to see him as power, now you got two here, who you looking for? Novak was definitely a direct steal from me also, I thought of players that were $8,000 or above, he was probably the most mispriced option on the board, I would have had him about $1,000 more expensive than where he was, so I think there's a discount there. I also like your pick Joel of Berger, there's something I run every single week, and it's always trying to find how does somebody suit a course with their putter for this course specific outlook, and yeah, Berger has now made putter, he has said he's healthy, the back is one of the hard things to do when you have, when you're putting and you have a bad back, that's something that's very difficult to get down into that position. So he's actually healthy now, and he has positive trajectory on bent grass screens. I think there's a lot to like about that. So both of those two options would have been in play for me, but with that out, I'm probably just going to go the route where I will have probably the most popular start I've ever done before, it's going to be according to my math right now, at least the first or the second or the first and the third most in popularity. I don't love the hometown narrative that has come into play for Patrick Fishburn, but I do think Fishburn here is one of the two or three best golfers in the field with a little bit of a discount that we're getting. You could look at some of the statistical profile and find reasons to not play him, but I looked for par five scoring. I looked for players that were inside of the top 60 of my model at every single iteration from a statistical perspective of how I ran it, Seamus was one, Fishburn was one, and then for my next pick, because there's five of them total, I'm going to take Ben Coles at seventy three hundred. I thought Coles was far too low price tag wise and provides a lot of safety. So it's a lot of popularity in this lineup, I'm going to have to pivot at some point, but I feel pretty confident going Seamus and Fishburn and just figuring out the rest in a way to get different elsewhere. I can't help but listen, your hunter isn't right, but it's just funny that these tournaments have gotten to a point where we're confident in Seamus and Fishburn, that is our confidence level. And it's funny because it's Seamus and Fishburn, but you're right, I mean there are two of the better plays in this tournament, it's just crazy how watered down these fields get, especially in these kind of off-season events. Interesting round, we just had Spencer looking at your take on the last few picks before I go here in my next pick. I really like the no-vec selection probably the most, I would say Burger would be the second choice for me, they're both going to be in my player pool, obviously I took Fishburn and Coles, so those are options too. My only concern about Thor Bjornsson, and I don't necessarily have probably as much of a concern as some of the industries might in this spot, but you're definitely getting a very heightened price tag from where we were one week ago, like I bet I'm at 125 to one to win that event, and now all of a sudden he's 40 to one give or take out most books and he's nearly $2,000 more expensive, I think there's a lot of upside for him. The ownership is at least somewhat neutral at about 10-12%, that would be my one concern with him though, if I'm looking for a reason not to play him, but he's still a top 30 golfer at the end of the day. Fair enough, alright, I actually think this week there's some really strong value plays, so I'm going to stick there, I'm going to go into another value play where I really like this week, a guy's been playing pretty well, really good at the form, and that's Patton desire, Patton desire is only $7,700, based on what we've seen, I've been recently, and based on the competition here, the field that we're in, I thought this was a missed pricing, I thought he should have been in the 8K mid 8K range, the ownership looks reasonable again, he's I didn't think about 16% at this point, but if you look at the metrics, you know, at the Sanderson farms, he gained almost four strokes in approach, he had a good potter, he's been very solid around the green, at the pro-core back in September, he won the tournament, again, gained three and a half strokes in approach, he had a red hot putter at the end, but that's carried over, he's still playing well, this is not an historically great putter, so if that, he's found something with that putter, and he's going to continue to strike the ball well, I think he's one of the better players in the tournament, I think he'd even go out and win it, so it's 77-100, you know, I value Kazai or as much as almost anybody in this field, and that's where this pricing is different, right, Scottie Sheffler at 11K is different than, no offense, she has power, right, at 10-30, now she has power is better than Pat and Kazai, but there is a difference between Scottie Sheffler being at that price, and Jim has probably, I think every golfer in this field is closer, and so therefore, you know, you don't have to prioritize spending up or going, the stars have scrubbed everything like that, in a field like this, David, you're up next with your third pick, but love your take on the last few picks, and who are you looking for with your third? Shout out to Sinja Jard in the chat, we need to get to your back on the show, and sometimes soon, he's obviously hit the big time now, we all know that, so we'd love to have him back on the draft cast, and yeah, like I mean, it seems that Fogg's Burgers and Kazai are all definitely WBs now, so just mark those in your little notebook and never to draft those players 'cause they're out, so you're not gonna see out all four rounds of the tournament, but Daniel Burgers is a dirty steal from me, look, I don't know if you can say you're early on him because of the seventh last week, but obviously we've known about the injury struggles, and if he has found something in that we break, and that he's just had between the end of the regular season and the full series, well, you know, I'm quite happy to jump back on him again because, as you said, I think rightfully so, that it is healthy peak, he would be the best player in this field, no doubt, so to get him at 7,700 feels like an absolute steal, so that would be my favourite of the recent picks, to break steal from me. I'm gonna go and take a player that I've had probably too much time for across the course of his career, but I do feel that Vince Whaley actually has more upside than a lot of people given credit for, and he's a lowly as 7,400 showing only 4% ownership as well, and I just loved that he was getting some leverage there on, a player who can drive it long, who can part really well, who can chip really well, was 16th last week at the Sanderson Farms. Now, if we're looking at playing an altitude, he played recently in the Barracuda Championship, which is played in Tahoe, and it was even a second year at altitude recently, so he's got that, and then TPC Summerlin last year, he finished two teams as well, and another Desert Golf Course, as well as having the 25th at the TPC Craig Ranch, where he's finished between six before, and his first two starts there, that's another Wyskopf design played in the Kineetex, so slow scoring, drivers are strong advantage there as well, you need to take advantage of the par five, so I think it's a very, very similar comp course that you could look at here, so I think Vince Whaley has more upside than a pair of people given credit for, and he's taken the 7,400 as a bit of a critically alternative play at the same time, right, there it is, Vince Whaley, I feel like he's becoming one of your guys, I feel like you've taken him a few times, going back to him here, it definitely seems like a good spot to take a shot on him, audience doing a great job tonight, getting their picks in quickly, first one in with Justin Lower, needing one more to be double to lock that pick in, make sure it's not one of the names that just got listed because I was going to take him. While we wait, I mean remember last fall season, like Vince Whaley was like the hottest commodity, and like everyone thought that he was going to be the next big thing in 2024, and he kind of went through that run, I mean he had six boys in that altitude to tournament dimension that can actually won, so that kind of kicked it off, and then he had a string of just like top 25s that included the 13 that shines over, so it was about this time last year that he kind of like made hay, and so I'm kind of relying on them coming back and doing that again, but like if you could be aware, the hype around Vince Whaley that time, I know that C was big on Vince Whaley at that time of year as well, we really kind of expected to kick on and tweet reading four, but you know that hasn't come to fruition, but some good form last week, and I think promising taking him here. Boom, Hall, pissed, was going to take Hall, I got a pivot again, steal for the audience, two solid picks, both guys were on my radar, if I was looking for my next pick, so I like the direction the audience is going here, David would love your take on the audience, and then you're up with your forum. Yeah, I think Harry Hall's going to be quite popular this week, obviously he's a Vegas guy, he's not going to be foreign to this type of environment. He knows how and what it's like to play in the desert, he knows what it's like to play at other tutors as well, so when you're making those adjustments for distances and taking altitude into account with all the other confluence effect is that caddies and players have to take him in choosing clubs, Harry Hall's going to have a leg up in that situation. My concern comes twofold, one I think he's pretty high priced at 8,400 compared to other names, I mean he's more interested in Andrew Novak for example, and he's high owned as well, like he is a 11% ownership, and I don't really want to put that much faith in the guy who for me lacks the requisite kind of power with the driver that I'd really be looking for ideally, like he's not the strongest driver of the golf one, I think that is going to be an advantage this week, I don't think it's going to be on end all, I think a lot of these holes are going to be reachable for the majority, but the fact he's not that accurate of the tee, he's pretty sure of the tee, and he's going to be pretty popular, he's probably going to be in the board for me, so after saying that, he's probably going to first top tier for the audience now. There you have it, David, you got your fourth year, 8,500 perfect this band, who are you looking for with your fourth? Yeah, so I'm going to go ahead here and again, take another kind of left field play a little bit, I'm going to take Tess and Headley, who is probably one of the more experienced players in this field, and there's obviously a lot of youth coming through, who are playing in these sort of alternative four series of events, trying to retain their card or just moving their way up to the PGA Tour, Tess and Headley currently is 137th on the Ferris Cup points ranking, so he's got every incentive to come out and play very well. This best finish recently did come at altitude, it was 24th at the Barracuda, but if we look at someone like his previous experience in the desert, TPC Scott Stowell, he's finished 5th and 23rd previously, as well as a 20th and another top wise cock design, and it's Summerlin was really weird, those stats shone through for me, so he's finished 5th, 4th, 7th, 18th, 27th, 7th, so he's got great desert form in neighbouring Las Vegas, Nevada at the Shriners, so given his head that experience in the desert, he's had good results recently at altitude. Again, I think that he's an interesting option in the low 7 Ks, at very low ownership as well, I'm only seeing 2.2%, so really nice pivot from Henrik Norlander, who's going to be very popular down there, Hayden Springer, who's going to be popular, Ben Kols is also going to be popular, I think he can go cheese and headling, get some leverage down in that low 7. Justin Halley, I like that pick, I think it's a really good value, a guy who's been able to show up, and only 7 of you, 100 seems a little underpriced in this field. Alright, I got to go with my 4th, a few of my guys were stolen, so I'm doing a little pivot here, and I'm going to take Lucas Glover, I like what we saw from Lucas Glover last week, especially if he's going to be able to make some putts, he's found a putter that is hot, that's usually typically his biggest weakness, he's game strokes putting last week. The ball striking is typically in everyone, especially in this field, I think he's one of the better ball strikers, if he carries some of that putting momentum over, I think he gets a really strong result, as upside to top 10, win the tournament, a lot to like for me with Lucas Glover this week, expense, would love your take on the last round, and then you got two here. You know Harry Hall is up there in Price and is going to be a little bit more own than people would think, but I like the Harry Hall selection by the audience, it's, you know, David alluded to this, there's a UNLV background for him, there's an understanding of this area of the globe, there's a golfer who is starting to peak in a lot of the statistical metrics that I am looking for in my model and who graded inside of the top 21 for me for win equity now, when you have an $8,400 price tag, you're going to need that to be the case in this situation, because this is not $7,000 Harry Hall or whatever we get some of these weeks, but I think Hall is a good selection from the audience there, I also like the lower pick that they made, I thought it was a good back to back selection of two golfers that I think are going to make the cut. I'm going to get different with one of my picks and this will be where I create some of my leverage, but for my first selection here, I wasn't even necessarily planning to do this, but I think it's just become a thing on this show that I do every single week now, I will take Mac Meisner, I thought he was a value where he was priced, and then for me there were five golfers that I alluded to that ranked inside of the top 60 of all the statistical categories I ran, Seamus and Fishburn, Eric Van Royan surprisingly was one of the other ones, maybe it's not surprisingly, he's one of the favorites in the tournament, but not a name that typically grades very well for me did this week, and then, so those are three guys that are, you know, $9,000 or above, wherever Van Royan actually is there and the price scale, but then you had two long shot names, Ben Cole's being one of them, I understand why there's popularity, and then it's the one name that nobody seems to be on this week maybe moved up a little bit, I see 3% ownership right now, but I'm going to bet Sammy Volomaki in a lot of different ways on the board this week, and this is a boomer bust selection, and I understand that, but there are certain statistical data points that are pushing in the right direction for him, this is a goal for that 12 of his last 13 tournaments he hasn't come inside the top 30, this is why you're getting this ownership percentage that's going to be 2%, 3% at the end of the day, but the driver is a positive mark in my sheet, the weight of proximity is a positive mark, the putting is a positive mark, you add all three of those things together, it's a top five expected player in those three categories, and that put them right next to all of the big boys if we want to call them that of this field, so there's a lot of popularity with this build, I'm going to have to get different somewhere, I think Volomaki accomplishes that and still gives me a lot of upside on the table. I think you're right, you have mentioned him before, I think he's an interesting pick, we've seen him pop in some of these bigger events as well, so I think they're certainly at an upside with that pick, you got only one left, I like the way your team is coming together, I got two here, I got money to spend, I'm not even going to prioritize using all my money, I'm probably going to leave some money on the table, but for starters I am going to go with Chandler Phillips here, we've seen Chandler Phillips get hot, he's had a few really strong outings, I'm mainly referring to even just last week where he gained two strokes putting, he gained almost three strokes with his driver, almost two strokes on approach, he was atrocious on his approach at the proper, but he got 13th and gained seven strokes putting, he can get hot with the putter, if he does that this week he can get a really good outing, he doesn't need to have an unbelievable week ball striking the way he plays to compete this week, he just has above average ball striking and gets out with a short game, you can get a really solid result only 7,600, David, you're up now with your fifth pick, you got 9,200 to spend, so salary shouldn't be much of an issue, who are you targeting here? Yeah, just touch on Sammy Bellomaki, I really do like that pivot from Spencer, I think he's really brutal boss, but we saw when he went over to the DP or two, and Spencer he has an air top 30 in his last 13 stars, I assume that was only PGA two, yeah, it's been a lot better on the team, you know, he's, as soon as he stepped down to DP or two he's had a couple of like a 12th and an ninth, and let's face it, like the strength of the foot is kind of comparable to the DP or to a event when you've got guys like Rory McElroy at the top of the card, right, so I think that's really interesting, I love Channel Phillips, I've got a lot of time for him as well, so I think two solid selections for you guys rounding out the tail end of this draft, I'm going to go and take Jacob Brushman here, I think that he's a really nice pivot because you've got Pankazire and Daniel Berg at the year, eating up a ton of ownership Daniel Berger particularly, which I think is the good reason, as I said, I do like that play, I think he's a good job despite the risks involved, but Jacob Brushman's had three 19th place finishes for beta in his last four starts, including 11th last week at the centre's advance, he's a positive driver, long off the tee, his driving accuracy has also improved a lot in his recent tournaments as well, and also just like he can make parts, I mean, he's consistently gaining four to five strokes putting at every tournament, I do think you're going to need to go pretty low at this tournament more to stay competitive, the green's a huge, there's 7,000 square feet on average, so some of the biggest greens that we're going to see on tour, and some of that in lake, but I think Acumen is really going to come into play, I like the benefit of the added driving distance, but those two drivable parfours and three parfives as well, so I think Jacob Brushman can go low, I think that he's a potentially interesting pivot and seeing Kay Ranch again. - Yeah, Brushman was a guy, I was looking as well for one of my next picks, I think it's been interesting people, we've seen them have some upside, which at 7,600 makes them very interesting. Audience, you have two here, I see some nominations in, we're going to need some seconds to finalize your draft, these will be your last two picks, you have enough money spent, obviously you can't just take anybody, because you could run on salary, but you have enough, they're going to go get who you want, so interested in seeing who the audience locks in while we wait, spends, we'll have to get your take on the last couple of picks as well. - Love the Chandler Phillips pick, that's who I was planning to take on the way back, in retrospect maybe I should have gone my Snare Phillips, ended this with Volomaki, Brushman would have been one of the other choices that was in play for me with Phillips being gone, so definitely have made things a little bit, if not a lot more complicated of how to round out this build, it's tough when Burger's not an option for me to take, there's a lot of names that have been removed, so I think both of those two selections were very savvy. - All right, audience, it looks like Ben Griffin, no that's only one, audience, we're going to need some doubles, they finalize this draft, there are a few nominations out there, we're going to need something confirmed to get their pick in, and you know, I might add an interesting wrinkle for Team Wanting, so you guys are moving slow, David's up next, he looks ready to go, maybe we'll let David steal a pick, and go ahead and you know, those are the rules, there's a timer, you got to pick within the timeframe, silent assassin, not all heroes where he caps, where to get the pick in, I believe that is a double, yes, the cow's he did say Schmidt, so that's going to count, Schmidt is locked, and you guys need one more Ben Griffin, if you can, I don't think he can afford Ben Griffin, can they afford Ben Griffin, no, I know, no, you can't afford Ben Griffin, you're going to need one more that's not Ben Griffin, then you guys can afford, I would stop making rules, but clearly you guys don't follow them, as there's one right here, which is staying within the draft that you guys can't follow, so don't tell me to stop making rules, because we need rules there has to be order, otherwise it would just be chaos, so therefore we need the rules, Edward, thank you very much, but we're still going to need that last pick, Nick Taylor, Zach, appreciate you, I'm going to go ahead and give you guys Nick Taylor, Zach's your captain, you guys went too slow, so Nick Taylor, it is lock it in with the final pick, and I'm totally, totally okay with leaving 1200 on the table this week, I don't think you need to force spending all your money, I am also going to leave a significant amount on the table in my draft, so I'm just really not many options for me to even take in the high age of this place, I'm going to have to leave some money on the table as well, audience, I really liked your team going into this last round, you guys really blew it with your last two picks, don't laugh, but you guys started off well, David, you're up with your last pick, we love your take on the audience here, and how do you round it out your back? I just love the vitriol, and it just keeps going, and usually I'm warranted, sometimes I'm warranted, but that's great, if I was audience and audience had got around to it, I would have preferred Patrick Rogers to Nick Taylor, I think it's game suits, they go of course a lot better, I might give the audience the chance to sub out, Patrick Rogers for Nick Taylor if they want, because they can afford them and not leave so much on the table, again, as you said Joel, I really don't think that there was any problem at all leaving 1500, 2000 on the table, we saw the optimal last week, had 2000 weeks on the table plus, so it is the kind of tournament where you can't take risks right there, and go for it, I just personally think that Patrick Rogers is much better suited to the golf course than Nick Taylor, so maybe if three people say Patrick Rogers in the chat will let the audience take him, but yeah, management, I think is interesting as well, probably no surprise when I'm going with my final pick here, I'm just going to take Keith Mitchell, look, he's on a run of three finishes in 12th, or better than the third last week, yes he kind of screwed it up with the last hole there, yes he put it last him as the playoff, but he did have a put for win the tournament, and he probably should have won the tournament, and look, the fact is he's played very well at TPC Scottsdale, particularly another Tom Wisecock design, he's had a 10th, 16th and a 17th bear, bear in mind some of those have been signature events, so it's some of the strongest fields that we see on the PGA Tour, and he's playing up in those events compared to what he plays this week as well, and he's also had a 20th and a 26th and two or three starts at TPC Craig Ranch, and otherwise Cough's design and McKinney, Texas, another booty-fest, look, I agree, you know, you might not have all the winnily that you want for some of this price, but I think as well there's going to be quite a few people who were boomed last week who really found it was going to come out and win, who maybe don't go back to the till again this week, and he's just playing really good golf, and particularly his putter has improved a lot, which I think is really, really promising because that's obviously been the floor in the nitrous game for most of his career, and it's come off three different putting surfaces, I'll point that it's now as well, it's like three different grass pikes he's gained putting in all three, so that for me it's another promising sign that maybe those putting improvements are actually sticky and actually going to remain moving forward, which is the key for Keith Mitchell really. Yeah, in this field, you know, I typically don't like Keith Mitchell, but in this field he's the best, the most talented golfer in the field, so you know, this isn't, you know, in terms of talent, you know, I think they're certainly obviously upside, I think he's the most talented golfer in the field, I typically shy away from Mitchell in tougher fields, but here I think it's a good spot to take the chance on him, so I like that pick there. For me here with my last pick, I really debated this for a while, I am going to go ahead and take Bud Kauli here, 7400, I'm leaving a good amount of money, 1400 on the table, but if you just look at Bud Kauli, even just last week, he was very consistent, he really hits it, he's hitting the ball really well, the ball striking is there, but he's getting in every category, he's good off the tee, good approach, he's got around the green game, he can find a hot putter, I think the well balanced approach from Kauli, you know, this is a guy who was a really big prospect, he had a lot of injuries and fell off the map, he's been playing more recently, he's healthy now, and I think the spot for him to show up and have a really good result as in one of these watered down events, you know, obviously he showed up last week, he looked really good, I think that carries over, I think he's playing good golf, so it's 7400, I think Bud Kauli is getting overlooked a bit, and the good thing is if you look at the ownership, it's nothing, I mean at 5%, especially with compared to some of the ownership beginning around him, I'm happy to take that on. Spence, would love your take on the last few picks in this round, and then you're up with your last. What are we doing with the audience, are we giving them Patrick Rogers, are they keeping the tailor? I will let David make that final call. I think it's been endorsed, I mean there was Albert Edd, Albert Edd, Jay Bikowski, John James, Jonathan, who knows, also advocating for Rogers, so yeah, look, I think Lee's given them Rogers, I think there's enough endorsement there to change it over to Rogers, so watch Nick Taylor now win this tournament, Nick Taylor by the way won their TPC Scott style, so I'd say it's not that I hate Nick Taylor in this tournament, I just think Patrick Rogers is a bit of a bit of play, so yep, best of luck audience and if he does not come through, I apologise profusely in the past. There you have it, all right, Spence, you got one left, 7900, how are you running out your spot? I'll talk about Rogers even a little bit here from the audience selection and kind of get into my selection, so as everybody knows, one of the things I like to do is putting is a very volatile statistic and I like to look at baseline projections or baseline stats versus the actual course specific projections, so here you have bent grass greens, they're going to be very pure, how do players perform on those particular green complexes versus if you threw them anywhere else that wasn't bent grass and easy, and there were a handful of names that got substantially better, Chris Kirk, Daniel Burger, Steven Yeager, Patrick Rogers which we just talked about, Seamus saw a very big improvement, there are two names though that are definitely not thought of as good putters that I've been trying to figure out which one of the two routes I want to go, it's Alex Smallley and Doug Ginn, both of them see a substantial improvement in my model for expected putting for this specific course, I feel like I'm almost just playing like the same thing every single week here with Doug Ginn to where Ginn has been very safe, he's making a lot of cuts, the putter has held them back so frequently that we're getting this capped ceiling would be the best way to word it where there's a lot of finishes that are landing in that 30th to 40th and with it is still coming a lot of popularity, I'm going to go back down with Ginn one more time though, I just think that at some point, and I've said this on shows over the past couple weeks even, something has to give here, either the statistical data has to get worse and regress or at some point we have to get a high end result from him, and I think if you put him specifically on betgrass here with the upside that he does have with the ball striking inside of my model, I'll take Doug Ginn at 11%, a little bit higher than you might think with the results, a little bit lower than you might think with some of the popularity that we've gotten in the last little bit, there seems to be some back and forth in the market of what the thoughts are actually on him, some people think he's overrated, some people think he's underrated, so I'll take Doug Ginn here at 7900, but I did very much consider Alex Smalley. You know it's really funny, when I was taking my pick, my three guys I had on the screen I was looking at were Ginn Smalley and Colley, so we were on the same wavelength there with that final pick, I was thinking the same thing, Ginn, all the reasons you said, he has the history, he has certainly upside, pretty inconsistent, but in this watered down field, I think you can get a really good result, so I certainly can see why you went in that direction, but that's a wrap for this draft, don't forget to smash the like button and give us a follow, it goes a long way, if you're not already, which I know most of you are, don't forget to sign up for when daily, you know you get, obviously you watch our show every week, but after the show we post weather updates, so as the week goes on, if there's any weather edge to be had, you'll get that within the discord, you get Stephen's ownership article, it's really critical to understand ownership in these terms, especially for playing GPPs, because that's how you find your edge, and then of course we'll have some out rights that we post, so you can get those out rights, get some winning bets that we'll be posting in discord throughout the week and follow along with us. Before we get you out here tonight though, we are going to give you our first round leader, sometimes we'll just give a matchup play if preferred, and we'll start with you tonight David, who are you looking at in the first round leader market? Yes, I've got five this week, but I mean everyone's just so long in this market, which you know, rightly so, because it does seem to be a wide open market in terms of the number of people who could potentially be first round leaders in this kind of event where you know, in 800, 900 could easily be what you need to score for the first round leader here, so I've got five, but all practically low, first shavest hour is my favourite play in the board in the betting markets and on the DFS board, so he's had six out of 10 top 18s in his most recent 10 starts on the first round leader, six times he's been on the top 18, Andrew Novak at 50 to 1 he's had a third and six in his last seven starts in the first round. Bert Daniel Burger, who is at 60 to 1, like horrendously mispriced beneath him in what he's been doing in his last tournament, looks so much better for that after the first round last week as well, Patrick Rogers at 66 to 1, he's had a third and six in his last nine starts in the first round and I probably do trust him more in that first round market than on my outright betting card and then final ones Vince Whaley at 80 to 1, he's had a fourth and a ninth in the first round in this last four starts, so I think that's really nice value. The one who was unlucky to miss out for me was Joseph Bramlet, who's 110 to 1, I think he's an interesting play, we've only seen this 007 XL Bendgrass, which is what these greens have called, one of the tournament, that's Colonial and surprisingly that's actually where Joseph Bramlet's part of the world, which is as big as Bug Bear is that he cannot put to save himself, but he did gain strokes putting on this type of surface back at Colonial and his approach measure still remains really high, he's a very, very long type of a golf ball, so it's a potential for birdies, a potential for eagles as well, so he do want to add a sneaky circle on him, Joseph Bramlet and I do like him, it's a sneaky pivot in DFS as well. All right, I love it, Spence, how about you, who you look at in the first round leader market? So I will update on when daily, if anything comes to fruition in that market, I will give some other things though for the show, this is a price that has been on the move, you might be able to still find it, you might not, like I think David and I are very luck step with Shana's power this week, I took him over Bull Hostler at minus 125, may or may not still be able to find that price, but the one I will give on here that you can find the number, it's over on Bette Rivers, Sammy Volomaki top 30 at plus 225, I also took him for a top 10 at 10 to one, it's that boomer bus nature that I'm trying to take on with Volomaki this weekend, I'm going to shoot for the ceiling potential that he provides in my sheet. All right, there you have it, I love it, I got four first round leader plays this week, I'll start with my long shot, it would be a shame for me not to mention this golfer's name on the show, especially in a watered down field, a guy I love, and you get a really good number first round leader at 90 to one and that's Rio, David, stay with me here, hi saswine, hits us weenay, hits us, it's so well worth it last week, I said so name, I said so now it was close, I'm sorry close, it did go last week, it did go last week, thank you, I'm working on it, I'm getting there, 90 to one, I think it's a really good number, I think a first round leader bet for him suits him better than a tournament long, you know he can pop her around, he tends to struggle with consistency for all four, so you get a really strong number there at 90 to one, I'm with you, David on Daniel Burger 60 to one, seems like too big a number, I'm on the burger play as well, Budcali digrafted, I just like him this week, I think people are overlooking him at 60 to one, kind of lastly Lucas Glover at 50 to one, and do you think this is a week to take a shot on a longer shot because they're all probably closer to the same in the normal week, so you have a higher probability of catching a bigger number, that's a wrap for tonight, good luck this week, let us know which team you think is best, who is going to win, will spends people to get a repeat, or one of us take him down, we will come back next week, crown a champion and do it again, good luck and did I forget anything? Just quickly on Rhea has said tonight, I do like that call because he's actually the defending champion at the Open to France, I'll be covering all the deep people too as well, so another reason to click that link in the description, sign up for win daily right now to get all of our coverage including deep people to it, lots of money making opportunities over there, it's a very soft market, but here's the defending champion at the moment over in the French Open, and he's chosen to play this week at the Desert Black Forest Championship, whatever this tournament's called, so the fact he's here this week, I think it says a lot about where his priorities lie and potentially that he thinks this might be a golf course that suits him, because he could be back home in his original tour on the deep people tour defending his title if you really wanted to. Interesting, maybe I've got to put him in a minute, I wasn't drafted but maybe should have been so to be determined, should be a fun week, good luck and of course, of course. You've got questions, O'Reilly Auto Parts has answers, need a pro you can trust, who we've got that too, no matter what you need, our professional parts people have the training and expertise to help you do things right, deep automotive knowledge, just one part that makes O'Reilly stand apart, the professional parts people, this is a mini meditation, guided by Bombus. Repeat after me, I'm comfy, comfy, I'm cozy, cozy, I have zero blisters on my toes, blisters, and that's because I wear Bombus, the softest socks underwear and t-shirts that give back, one purchased equals one donated, now go to bombus.com/listen and use code listen for 20% off your first purchase, that's b-o-m-b-a-s.com/listen and use code listen at checkout. 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Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Black Desert Championship!
