[MUSIC PLAYING] This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance, fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates, potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] PDGA Nation, we are back with a new season. A new draft-cast season. I am-- oh, it's been a few weeks. So we're getting back into the swing of things. We have the Sanderson Farms coming up this Thursday. And I'm looking at the field in the ice, JV Field for sure. So our premier golfer is Keith Mitchell in the field. But with JV Fields, we look at the positives. We can find an edge here with the JV Field, because we have all the data. And we have the crunch of numbers and find which golfers are the values on this tournament, who are targeting, and go up there this week and make some money. However, before we dive into this week, I've missed you guys. Spence, I know with football going on and not golfing with us for three weeks, you've been losing your mind, which is why you're joining us, from Zawgrick and Bryan. So thank you. Appreciate that. It's nice to be back, guys. Yeah, I have a new place here. So we'll get it all set up nicely, get everything decked out in the background over the next couple of weeks. But I agree with what you said, Joel. This is one of those tournaments. Maybe not specifically this course. I have some reservations, which we can talk about with this venue, just from a statistical perspective. But it's these tournaments with these watered down fields that historically, I feel like I've had my largest edge. And I would venture to say that you guys probably agree with that, just based off of the opening intro there. So I think it's going to be a really good fall season. There's going to be a lot to talk about. So everybody-- and I've always said, this is one of the reasons why I do golf full time now and don't do other sports. But everybody moves over to football. And I stick here during the fall, because I feel like there is the most money to be had in golf during this next couple of months. Yeah, I'll add one quick thing to that. We have a major, right? And you're deciding between who do I play, Rory, or Brooks Capco, or Price and DCM, but they're all great golfers. So yeah, you're picking between which of the great golfers you'd like. You get one wrong, and I'm going to feel bad about it, because you lost on not picking one of the best golfers in the world. This is where it feels a little bit different, because now you really have to use all of your strategy to cope a while, because you're not picking between all great golfers. Now you're actually picking between guys who are of course fit or when rise to the occasion this week at this time. So it definitely is a more unique strategy and approach to the tournament, which I'm looking forward to breaking down with you guys tonight. David, how are you doing tonight? Good guys, I missed you. I know it was only three weeks, but I missed a little PGA for our cast fan, missed the audience, missed all the banter. Yeah, it feels like it's been a while. Obviously there's been a lot of fun golf around the world. Deeply good tour. We had a 91 shot, finished third last week, as well as a 401 shot, finished two teams. So making money there, and then prison's cup, obviously, was really, really interesting. But I'm going to start with a trivia question for the both of you, which you probably know what Sanderson Farms does. I'm presuming being based in America. Ice cream? No. Chicken? Chicken. Yeah, here we go. Sanderson Farms makes chicken. Then the third largest producer of chicken in North America. Do you know how many chicken Sanderson farms produce per week? Thirteen million. Over thirteen million chickens per week. And they're only third. So what's number one and two doing? Who knows? I mean, if I would have given a guest there, I wouldn't have been anywhere near. So it's probably a good thing that I didn't give an answer there. Just curious, but how did you know that they produced chicken? Because I know it. I've written it in past articles before, and I actually, funny enough, I just got off of a show over at Action Network with Roberto Argoio. And he calls it the chicken championship, so very easy transition into that. All right. Well, we're on the topic. Spence. And we're talking about chicken. And you know, I'm trying to make a correlation between chicken and your infamous course breakdown. But there is none. There's no correlation. I've got one. Okay. David, you're on. This golf trend championship might be poultry, but we know that Spencer's course breakdown won't be. Boom. I love it. That was it. I was looking for. Spence, the non-poultry course breakdown as enters and farms. What are you looking for here this week in Mississippi? So one of the things I've talked about a lot at the Country Club of Jackson is this is an extremely straightforward course. I think many times you hear that answer and you think that modeling for the event will be in its construction, but I've always found events like this to be challenging. You typically get more routes for success when scoring opens up for the field. So if we backtrack a little bit here, we saw Sam Burns do the brunt of his work with the driver and irons when he won this title in 2021, gained over 3.5 strokes per round with his ball striking, lost him Lee with the putter. You flip that answer to last year, Luke list is not necessarily the best putter in the world. Although for this little three month run of last season, Luke list all of a sudden became a good putter. He gained 2.5 strokes per round with his short game, ended up being neutral with the approach play for himself. So there are a lot of avenues that you can pinpoint to try to find a way to build a model this weekend. And when we have more routes, it just opens up the playbook for everybody. So I think for me, and I'll try to just very quickly fire these off, there were four things that I wanted to find in my model. You don't necessarily need to do all of them, but the player that can put two or three of these together has typically been the one that walks out of the week victorious. So the first thing is, can you take advantage of this generous layout off the tee? Players only hit 53% of fairways. However, the caveat to that is that there is virtually no miss fairway penalty. There's non-existence in that nature, just because of the lack of hazards. The second thing would be, can you gain with your irons? That's going to specifically be with your short iron variety. Players will see a decrease compared to the expectation from each 25-yard bucket that we look into. That's barring two exceptions this week. That's between 100 to 125 and 125 to 150. You get nearly 36% of your shots that are going to range from that 50-yard range between 100 to 150 yards. That's almost 7% higher. Pretty neutral on the 200+ which we'll get to in a second of why that is. The third thing for me is, how do you perform on these extremely fast Bermuda greens? That was the only metric of the four critical strokes game metrics that was above PGA Tour average. As I just talked about, and this is where I would say some of the long iron proximity comes into play, can you generate scoring on the four par fives and then the singular short par four that measures under 350 yards? We look at this historically, 47% of the winning score output that gets created in the week has been on those four par five holes alone. Then we get an additional 12 to 13% on that aforementioned par four 15 that I just talked about. Essentially, 27% of the holes account for nearly 60% of the winning score. There is this redundant nature over and over again of the ass of the facility of what you need to do to find success. I think when you open up the playbook and I keep talking about it in that capacity, it doesn't mean that one way or another ends up finding success. I lean towards distance just because of the ability to be able to bomb in gouges facility. I lean towards needing to make putts on fast Bermuda greens. I lean towards trying to score on the par five just because of the heavy nature of that. Outside of those couple things, it's pretty wide open outside of that. We will have our hands tied a little bit. There will be some work cut out for us to build lineups, but this reduced watered down field is what makes this tournament exciting for me. It's a really good point. I'll even layer one more thing into this. The reduced watered down field, we don't have a lot of the big names like you said, but in addition to that, because it's a reduced watered down field and we're looking at this, how we're going to play guys, we've had three weeks off of them, because it's championship weekend. These guys aren't going to scale down players that weren't playing in the toward championship. A lot of these guys haven't played in more than three weeks because they weren't playing in those championship tournaments. We don't have a recent form worth looking at guys who haven't played in over a month or two months even, even if that's the way the data we wanted to look to. This isn't, of course, as Sven said, that's heavily weighted toward a specific profile. It's not only going to look at, let's just look at bombers because, yeah, maybe we want to look at bombers. It's not necessarily, of course, we're like, this is definitely a bombers course. It definitely has our work cut out for us on finding the value and making sure we get an edge, but that's why we're here and that's why we're going to break it down in the draft cast tonight. Well, both the draft board here now, since we're starting the season fresh, we're going with a random order. I'll be honest, David and I were jokingly fighting over the first pick. So therefore, we just gave it dispenser. I actually deferred it over to David. This is a new season. There's obviously you can tune in in 45 minutes, watch bickering go on during the vice presidential debate. On this show, we're a united family. I gave you guys the first two picks over me and you guys can make your selections and we'll kick it back to me when we get there. Wow. You'll still get bickering on this show. Still as in a family, but we were still bickering. And that will likely be over draft picks, which we're about to find out now. So, David, with the first pick, congrats, you're on the clock. Yeah. And what an honor. When we were, when Joel and I both volunteered to take the first pick, I thought I was being the gentleman and said, well, I'll defer to the speed. He's the only one here as an ask for the first pick. And then Spencer just out gentlemaned me and gave me the first pick. So it's very standard of Spencer over a very, very kind, kind man, Spencer risk. Look, I think you guys have all made a mistake because nobody wants to play Keith much more like $10,000, but probably the best golfer in the field. But this year, he's already won twice on the season. One is an amateur, is Nick Dunlap, who for me profiles absolutely perfectly for this golf course. Tons of driving distance, it's had a fantastic year. Fifth obviously in the Phoenix, St. Jude, I think TPC Southwind is an interesting venue to consider in terms of that classical layout. Also very correlated is Detroit Golf Club, he finished 10th year earlier this season. Detroit Golf Club is really interesting in terms of what's been mentioned in terms of the approach metrics. You're either going to get a ton of reaches or a ton of shots over 230+ and kind of nothing in between. And that 150 to 250 yards is typically actually where PTA Tour players hit most of their iron shots. This week, only 30% of shots occur from 150 to 250+ yards, which is insane. And that is very atypical of the PTA Tour. Well, Detroit Golf Club matches that profile perfectly, keeps the driving distance, keeps the shots over 250+ yards, and Nick Dunlap was one of the best in the field that week on approach finished in 10th in the end. Very, very happy to take them, it just got a nice 700 and take you against business at Facebook. Wow, Nick Dunlap, off the board, first overall pick, spends, would love be here from you? Is Nick Dunlap on your radar for the tournament, and would you have considered him that one overall? I would have, I probably would say I think it's a little bit more, wide open than what David said. Dunlap was certainly an option that was going to be in the playbook for me. If you, I talked about this on the action show a second ago. Just look at what the sharp markets, there are a handful of books out there, most of them offshore, variety, the pinnacles, the bookmakers, all of those. Look where Dunlap is moving compared to everybody else. He is the favorite or near the favorite at every single one of those shops. A lot of that's going to come because of the par five scoring ability that he possesses here, the distance that he has. This is a really nice course fit for him. I think he's probably one of the safest targets on the board of any of the names that we can talk about, and certainly should have been in consideration for the number one pick. So I like what David did there. Oh, there you have it, great pick, David. I'm going to start this draft off with a steel, which I, well, it's a, which I think is going to be a steel because I know this person is one of your boys because you draft them often. And this week, he's actually a favorite to what he's doing, which he rarely is usually coming in as a value play. And that's JJ's spot. JJ's spot now coming in at under 10K, just under 9900, you know, if you look at just his, his most recent approach metrics that's spectacular and we're dating back, we use a lot of strokes on approach since March or 2034. And if you look back just since July, which is kind of a little bit more recent data, he has been gaining a significant amount of his stroke on his approach. So, and if you look at off the tee, he's been gaining over two strokes up the tee and east of his last two tournaments, granted it was in August and September, still most recent outings. And his putter, his game shows with his putter in every tournament since June 30th. So he's just in really good form. He's playing some of his best golf. He's got two top 10s at the three and open in the window. He's made, what, seven straight cuts, a top 10 at the rock and mortgage. I think we're just seeing his best golf at the moment, and then you can turn that into a really good result here this week in a watered down field. So David, I'll go to you, is JJ's spot on the radar this week? Yeah, look, I agree, he's just playing awesome golf at the moment. The approach metrics are absolutely insane. I mentioned when I picked on like that Detroit golf club, the rock and water gauge class against a very good correlation, both in terms of leadables, but particularly around those approach metrics. Well, JJ's born already has three top 13s at that event. So I think that's a very, very good portrait of what you can speak from this week as well. All right, I love it, Spence, two picks off the board. You're up with your first period number three. Who are you looking for? Well, I don't know why I put you ahead of me, like, I don't know why I put either one of you ahead of me, like there were probably four options that I was considering, two of those being Nick Dunlap and JJ spawn. So look, like we've talked about already. This is a watered down tournament where I do think there's a lot of value to be found down beneath just because the bottom end of the board is really weak. You do have some value if you look around on this. So I'm not too worried about the ability to string together a line up here. It's one of the reasons why I'm okay being in the spot, but you guys probably win as optimal as you could in the first two selections. So for me, I'm just going to play a little bit of defense here. I'm going to take the player right now that I seem to think, or my model seems to think is going to be the most popular player on the board, par five score just in the same elk of what we're talking about with Nick Dunlap a second ago. This is a golfer that's really turned it on recently with multiple top six finishes three times in the last four tournaments. I'll go with Patrick Fishborn here. He's third in my model, fifth for upside. I think there's a pretty good overall build for him at this price tag. Wasn't necessarily the route I was planning to go initially, but as I said, there's five or six players that are all very similar to me that I'll take two of them and just move across from there. Well, I will say, well, before we dive into the audience, you are now officially on the clock. I didn't give my reminders. I normally do. I guess I'm rusty as we've had a few weeks off, but don't forget, if you're tuned in, make sure you log into YouTube, participate in the draft along with the audience. You can help make the picks as well audience. You're on the clock. You have two here. The way this works is someone make a nomination of a player like the draft. When that player is second, it's just mentioned a second time in the chat. That is the pick. We'll need to do that twice to get both your picks in as this is a snake style draft. It looks like the nominations are starting to come in. On the fish burn front, he was definitely on my radar. Probably I doubt he would have even gotten back to you on your next pick or your next picks before mine, but the next time around, because that was definitely someone I was targeting for this week. But David, a little bit here from you, was Patrick Fishburn on your radar for this tournament? Yeah. Look, I don't think he's safe as houses. He looks really, really solid. Obviously, he would have to perform it as optimal level in order to justify his price tag, but I think all of the evidence that he's playing really good golf at the moment is going to be somewhat popular. I actually have him as the highest on the board at the moment. I have him playing around 20%. Look, in this wide open field, we're in the beating markets, nobody's under 20 to one. That's going to be telling me, I'm sure later in the draft, we'll come up with some queer key men price, 6,000 golfers, who's going to help him get different after the Patrick Fishburn pick. But look, for me, it screams a good shock. He's just playing great golf at the moment, and I can't question what's the reason I'm taking that selection in the future. Boom. In Doris, it is audience got one in, Henrik Norlander locked in as the first audience pick. We do need one more, unless, yeah, no, we still need one more. Only one confirmed. It does look like Yeager's been nominated, so there's one option out there. As we wait for that second audience pick to be locked in, David, we'll start with you. Were you interested in Henrik Norlander this week? I am somewhat. I think that given his course history here, he probably is going to receive a disproportionate amount of attention. Obviously, in three of the last four tournaments, he's finished fourth, fourth, and second, and the other time was the 24th, so it's not like he's played bad for here by any means. He's played very well in this golf course, but as a result of that, you're getting 14% ownership for a guy in the 7K range. Has he been playing this best golf lately? I mean, he's done okay over in Europe, but bear in mind, those fields are a lot weaker. Even though this is a weaker PGA2 Airbnb, it is going to be stronger than a lot of those DP2 have been used, so there comes that question mark, and he's also not the longest off the tee, so he's doing a lot of it with his partner here. He has put it well here previously. He's also lost in like 10 of his last 11 tournaments for putting, so his partner's not in the great space, and that's kind of been how he's been getting it done when he plays with this golf course. Some consumers just particularly run the ownership for me. Fair enough, and ownership concerns are real especially, depending on what type of tournament you go after, if you're going after GPPs, you definitely want to be aware. Second pick, still not finalized by the audience, a few new nominations have been put out there between Seamus Power, Taylor Moore, Hoey, Spencer, and Sia, welcome to the chat as well. It's a pleasure to see you here, and it looks like the pick has been finalized in Riko Hoey with the second pick. Guys, we had mentioned a few times before the break as a potential value option at 8K, certainly in play this week's expense, would love your take on the Riko pick, and then you're up with your second pick. Yeah, my models seem to like them for the last couple of weeks now. A second in this field in weighted recent strokes gain total, so essentially what that means in my sheet is I took the X amount of rounds, which just for reference sake, here were 20 rounds, and I weighted it towards this specific golf course that we were going to be playing, and he had graded inside the top five there, so you know, I think there's a lot to like, you know, Joel, you'll be happy to hear that JJ Spawn was the number one player in that area, which is one of the reasons why I liked him, but I like the Hoey selection. I kind of am seeing somewhat marginal ownership right now. I see about 10%, which for the $8,000 price tag is probably a little bit lower than I anticipated it being, but no problems with the selection there. I will move us across though to with our with my next pick that I'm going to be making. So, you know, I've talked about this quite frequently this weekend articles on podcasts of anything of that nature. You look at the top of the board, and whether it's, you know, we can throw Keith Mitchell out there just because he's the name that's at the top of most of these boards, Nick Dunlap's very deserving in the movement that he's taken. You have JJ Spawn, Patrick Fishburn, there's a lot of those guys that I tend to like between that 22 to, you know, we'll call it 35 to one range there, but I thought there was one golfer specifically that when the odds opened up and maybe this is more of an outright answer than anything else that we even see it on draft Kings with the price, but when I thought the odds opened up, I thought his numbers were a little bit inflated just because there has been this perception of a lack of win equity from him. This is a golfer that has no top five finishes and 46 events that he's played on tour. I realize that is a terrible segue into why I like this golfer this week, but I'm going to take Chan Kim at $8,900. There's the putting concerns, I've talked about it even during the course breakdown. You need to make putts here to find success, but he was one of the highest climbers in my model when you look at projected strokes gain off the tee specifically for this venue and then you add in the projected approach play that he has, it put him inside of the top 10 of my model for most of the critical areas I was looking for. The high end marks shirt are going to lack a little bit, but five top 29 finishes in his past six starts. I think we're trending towards something here that's a little bit better than the results that we've received historically from him, and I just want everybody to realize while we do have a lack of PGA tour upside, go back a season in 2023, back-to-back victories on the Corn Ferry tour. This is not a golfer that's incapable of getting himself across the finish line. That beat a lot of the Patrick Dischburns and those names that are a little bit higher than him on the board, so I like Chan Kim this week. I don't think he's going to carry a whole ton of ownership and that's going to be one of the ways for me that I'm going to get very aggressive with Chan Kim and just be against the grain of leverage in that spot. I'm aligned with you on that, big. I like Chan Kim a lot this week. To your point, right, when we talk about these water tournaments while you're right in the typical PGA tour event, Chan Kim seems to lack a lot of upside. I think this, because of the nature of this event in the field, you have to ignore that because this is not the typical field he plays in. If you weren't, I don't have this data, but if you were to pull data of what his results are against only the guys that are playing in this field, not just the tournaments he's played in, I bet you they would be a lot better than what he's produced in the past. To your point, Chan Kim seems to be playing his best golf. I think this is a spot where he can produce a really great. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance, fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds, because Progressive offers discounts for pain and full, owning a home and more. Plus, you can count on their great customer service to help you when you need it, so your dollar goes a long way. Visit progressive.com to see if you can save on car insurance. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates, potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations. Alright, I am up with my second pick here, Chan Kim honestly was on my list of guys I was considering. I'm going to move on from that spot. I'm going to take another one of my favorite plays. I think he's really just underpriced this week, and that's Andrew Novak. We saw Andrew Novak come out last year and have it just a great season. Again, in this field, Andrew Novak tends to get you a lot of top 30s, right? He gets in the 25th, 22nd-type finishes in stronger fields. He even gave you three top 20s in his last six outings since June, his approach numbers, he's gained strokes on approach every tournament he's played in, except for the Scottish Open, which is a different type of course, so you can forgive him for that. His biggest crux most recently has been putting, which he lost strokes putting in his last three outings, five in particular at the window. If he gets the putter right in a few weeks off to get that right, the ball checking numbers are certainly there. I would have priced him closer to the heights if not low 9k, so if he was like a missed pricing to me at 7,800, I'll be definitely overweight on Andrew Novak this week. David, we'd love your take on Novak and then you got two. - Yeah look, Novak's a savvy pick, and I think this is a really key thing for people to remember that we switched to the muted surfaces here. That typically helps team Novak, but we saw that last year with a look list. You'll see the winner is like the captain of team Novak and the coach, but if we looked earlier in the season what the guys were doing on the muted graphs, right? Like Novak finished 9th at the cognizant classic and florida game putts, putting at the TPC sawgrass, he game putting at the Valspar Championship, so he's gained on the surface previously. So I can discount some of those previous results and the approach metrics look really good, particularly he's one of the best in the field over 200 yards as he mentioned, even he's mentioned as well, the short par four and those four par five are really the cracks that are scoring and that means going for those greens into some of those longer ions which Novak can really excel at, so I do really like that play. Segueing into that on the Valspar Championship, the Valspar is one of the best comp courses that you can consider when looking at the country club at Jackson. So Peter Malnardi has two PG or two victories in this career. They were here at the Sanderson Farms and they were at the Valspar Championship at Innisfric. San Burnts has won at both as well as the Colonial Chalsful Challenge, another good comp course to consider. There's lots of crossover as McKinsey who's as well, he was one of here in 23 and he finished third at the Valspar earlier this season, so kind of segueing on to their Andrew Novak by the way, he's finished 17 and 27th as the last two stars there, but I'm going to take Taylor Moore who was the winner at the Valspar Championship at 23, he takes all the boxes in terms of the comp courses that I'm looking at, so in this book obviously he's won there and he finished 12th when defending, he finished 17th and 24th as the last two starts here. The Detroit Golf Club as I mentioned has got very, very similar approach metrics, these are six fourths and 10th and there's three starts. Now a lot of people are going to look at his record and be like, oh okay, there's last two starts, he finished 52nd and 66th and the FedEx same dude and the Windham Championship. The bear in mind, that's like over a month ago, that was August 18th. We really have no idea how he is playing, he is a player that IC possesses a ton of upside, we've seen that previously, I expect that he can keep on and go and get another victory sooner rather than later, especially in this war downfield and for me he's just playing far too cheap at 7600 for one of the best long iron players in the PGA Tour overall, they're loaned in this field. So I think he's great value, I'm going to go and clear him up with an absolute dumpster diver right down the bottom of the board and that's Kallu Wan, I think if you're going to take risks, this is the kind of tournament that you need to, Kallu Wan is a very, very long driver of the golf ball, you can also get super hot with the putter, we know that previously, now we look what he did at the protocol championship, he missed the cup but he also gained five strokes on approach in just two rounds, lost a ton of strokes putting and if you look earlier in the season he started gaining strokes when he was on Bermuda, that included a fifth Ed Valspar Championship which I mentioned is extremely correlated, he also finished six of this event last year and he's got correlated former at the Rocket Morgan which where he's finished 14th and 20th and there's two stats, so he's taking all those comp courses for me, again, we're just relying on the putter coming right with him but he's got tons of distance and he actually had a really, really good approach week at the protocol championship, so I like him at 6200, he's extremely cheap and he's going to throw up a ton of salary space for me going into the rest of this draft. Oh, alright, I love it, you certainly found some value, that is what we were looking for, I agree also with Taylor Moore at 7600, it just seems mispriced for, you know, his upside on what he can do in his watered down field, so two solid picks there from David, I'm going to go here and, you know, I actually drafted this golfer, I don't know if it was last tournament or two tournaments ago, but recently, but I have to probably venture to say I've never drafted him in any tournament ever before that, he's not a guy I like to play typically, but again, I go back to the recent form is there, the watered down field, I think he makes a lot of sense, and that's Matt Kucho, Kuch is playing well and I like what I've seen, I think in this watered down field, I think you'll get another really good result and the numbers are popping, I mean, at the pro-core in September, he gained five strokes on approach, wasn't quite as strong at the window, he didn't really gain seven strokes at this putter, he got 12 plays, but then if you go back to the three and open, he gained 10 strokes on approach, those are wild numbers, I mean, he's gained strokes on approach in every event since the memorial on June 9th, except for the window, he's extremely good putter, he's a better putter than majority of people in the field, he's only real negative, our concern is his driver, which in the recently has been a strength, he's been hitting it well, so big a positive result from the driver as well, I think you get a really good result this week from Matt Kuchar, Spence, we'd love your take on the last few picks and then you're up with your third. I want to backtrack just very quickly about the Andrew Novak pick, so we'll go a little bit deeper than just the last couple, there is one player in my model, and I've talked about this being a tournament where you can gain across the board to try to find success, there was one player in my model who graded in the top 45 of all four of the critical strokes gain metrics that just happened to be Andrew Novak there, so I really like the value that you had on him and then just very quickly touching on Taylor Moore before we move forward, Moore has become and very quickly become one of these players where it's almost like his current form doesn't matter entering a week, when you put him on a course where he has course history, he has done this over and over and over again, and I have fallen victim fading him in some of these spots to where my model from a statistical perspective isn't seeing what we've been getting results wise at the course, but I mean over and over again, he's continuing to produce, so I think Taylor Moore is a very savvy pick with some real upside there at 7600. I think it's a really great point you made it as, you know, one is how there are some guys that course history just, you know, they tend to just show up in certain spots, right? And sometimes it doesn't matter as much, but calling that, I think it's a really good point, you know, for Taylor Moore specifically that this might be a spot where you want to, you know, rely on your focus even if the current form isn't there. Yeah, I agree with that. So with my next pick, this is, there's more ownership here than I thought initially when this week started, it's almost as if, I don't want to call it a group think mentality has taken place because, I mean, this is a golfer that's very high in my model, and this is a player who, I think if you look at what he did specifically at the pro-core championship, throw away the Sunday performance where he imploded on himself, six over par, shoots himself from inside of the top 15 to outside of the top 45, I don't think necessarily the results look as good on paper as we would be expecting if we just got a neutral Sunday performance. But, you know, Joel, I feel like you and I talk about this quite frequently with a handful of golfers. It's the unknown variable. It's some of this youth movement of let me try to find the golfer who is cheap on the board, but we look three years from now and we clearly realize that, okay, this guy should have been up there with Nick Dunlap and he should have been priced in that same vein there. And, this is a golfer that's going to have distance, it's a golfer who has positive trajectory from me in way to proximity. I worry about the volatility. I'm going to take Michael Thorby-Orange in here. There are some injury concerns that have come into play recently, just something to note if I'm, you know, flirting with a potential withdrawal or something of that nature. But this, to me, is the boom potential where, yes, there is more ownership than I initially thought when this week started, but inside of the top 17 for me in all iterations of how I built my model and that includes being inside the top 12 overall. So I made him one of the best values on the board. I'll take him here at 7200. I like that approach. And as you said, and I think you're spot on, this is the week to do it, right? The watered down field, there's an opportunity for him to rise up. You know, I wouldn't want to take a shot on something like that, you know, at the US Open, right? I don't think that would have, that would be very fruitful. But this week in this tournament where the scores are supposed to be low, I think that's where you can realize some of that upside. So I like that pick for sure, endorsed by me. Before I get your opinion on it, David, audience, you were back on the clock and we need two. So it looks like we're starting to get some nominations in. We'll need a few more to finalize those two picks. As we wait for those to roll in, David, we'll love to get your feedback on Thor Bjornsson in the last few picks. I hadn't seen the ownership on Thor Bjornsson, and that is wild. I like, I have no idea where that's kind of come from because like, on paper, it should be like a sneaky obscure pick, right? Like, recently losing on the parrage, generally the type of recipe that people don't like to do when they're selecting DFS players has played this tournament previously. So you know, you've got course history kind of going from driving ownership up. So it's really bizarre, but then you dive into his approach matrix and he's very, very good from 100 to 100 yards, he's very, very good from over 200 yards. Those two key approach ranges get this weird situation. These 30% of shots from 130, 250 plus, and that could be a really good recipe for Thor Bjornsson, who's also a very, very long driver. So I do like the outside of the possesses. I'm just actually shocked though that he's a limited of no idea where that's come from. And yeah, I agree with that Kuchamish, Kuch is playing good, good golf, like incredibly good golf, far, far beyond what you probably expect from him. Obviously, he's the kind of golfer who, at this stage of his career, being in his 40s, he's probably looking at this and going, "If I don't retain my PGA to a card, he's probably not going to bother going to the Corn Fury to try and get it back." So he is playing for keeping the music on for another year. So there's a lot of incentive there, as well as playing very, very well. He has got good course form as well, particularly correlated to the Ed and his book, the sales bar championship that I mentioned is a good correlation too. So audience zero on the clock, time to get some picks in, but like both of those last two picks, very, very shocked by Thor Bjornsson's ownership though, that's just weird. I have no idea where that's come from. Oh, you have it. The audience, the Zach, your teammates have failed you, Zach is messaging me on the side saying, "The rest of the crew stinks, he's a one man show, no one's helping him." So the stop Zach can be continuing trashing all his teammates on the other hand side. How does it allow him to have his picks? You guys want to go with Kootie and Yeager, since no one else has chimed in, I think Zach, it's all you. The brunt of the credit, if you guys win, but you also have to take the brunt of the criticism if you lose between Kootie and Yeager, I think it's actually too pretty solid pick, Zach. So I'm behind it, I'm with you. I think it means with two good selections, Albert is now seconding Yeager, so it looks like you are getting some traction there, Kootie is a good value play, it's 7K, you're looking for someone on the upside, Kootie is up and covering, he might be priced higher and being one of the more premier names, two to three years down the line, so this is one of these watered down fields, he has the talent to compete. Spence, we'd love to hear from you, or Yeager and Kootie on your radar. Kootie very well might have been my next pick there. I think there's great value at that $7,000 total that he got him at. So definitely support the Pearson Kootie play. I think for me now that Kootie's off the board, I'm trying to figure out a way of how I want to build this line up and I think I'm going to make a slight deviation right now and go with the golfer that to me when we look at this price tag and the ownership, I see about 11% on this name, he's $8,000, that's Mac Meisner. I actually thought entering the week that Meisner could have pushed 19% to 25%, but it does seem like that that miscut at the pro-core championship has weighed in some people's minds and I'm completely fine buying back in here at what I deem to be a really good ownership percentage at 11% there. There are a handful of players that have seen substantial positive trajectories when we look at putting in. David talked about and I agree, like I have Chan Kim on my team. There is the ability to go the no route, but when you can add the ball striking narrative that I get from Mac Meisner in my sheet, plus that projected increase on Bermuda green complexes, which all of a sudden sees some grade inside the top 10. I like Meisner's ability here to string together results. You look at what he's produced recently, it's just been a plethora of results over and over. If you exclude that miscut that he thrown through into the mix, so I think there's a lot to like about his ball striking ability here and as I said, I thought the ownership was going to be higher, so I'll view this as a discount even if it's still marginal at the end of the day. Well, what may I can confirm, Spencer? You're certainly going to win the cool name battle this draft because from Fishford to Thorborn said to Mac Meisner, you're definitely nailed that end in terms of the actual golfer Mac Meisner. I don't think I was going to draft it, but he's definitely in my player pool this week. He was thinking about it and considering at 8K, I think the value is certainly there. He can mix and match him with a lot of guys in that 8K range, so I can definitely endorse that pick. From my end here, I'm glad he came back to me. I'm going to go with Johnny Vegas. I do tend to draft him a lot. He's on team no putt as we mentioned, but Johnny Vegas has come back from his injury earlier in the year and he's looked really good since June. I mean, he's had, what, for four top 30s, he's won the 3M open, he's been gaining strokes on approach since the rock and mortgage on June 30th. He's been gaining strokes off the tee in every tournament, except for one since the rock and mortgage, since before the rock and mortgage, I should say. Then he's kind of, he is, he's very sporadic with the putter. If he gains stroke putting, I think you're going to get a top 10 from Vegas this week. That is the wild card, but he has him and he gains a stroke going to have at the pro court. He gains five strokes at the 3M open, he won, so that putter when it is kind to him, it does result in really strong results at 80, 600, I think the price is right. David, we'd love to hear from you on Vegas and Meisner, and then you've got two. Yeah, I'm, I'm worth being so surprised that Meisner's ownership, I expect it to be a lot higher than it is, even though it is only 11%. I thought they'd give them where he's priced that a lot of builds are going to kind of focus on that nine to 8K range. People are looking to make him more balanced build because they don't want to play like over 10,400, you know, 10,400 for Chief Mitchell and this kind of tournament. So balanced build, I think is going to be a lot more popular and probably one way to get different is actually going that studs and scrubs approach and differentiating yourself in that way and to line up construction. But I did think because that Meisner's ownership would be higher. These obviously are very, very talented golfer with the approach metrics and the ball striking really is off top caliber and that does go a long way to, to getting the job done around the checks. And Johnny Vegas, I like the upside. My concern comes with his, his, his approach metrics and a 150, you do get a ton of weed shots here and it is one of the weaker sides of this game. On the flip side, he's one of the better players over 200 yards. So as long as he can kind of keep it going around the greens, keep it going with the short ends and he does have the ability and the distance, obviously, to really take apart the part fires and parfours as me, as Spencer mentioned, that is how you're going to construct your, your scorecard really around those five holes. All right, I love it. David, you got two here, you got plenty of money to spend in, in terms of what is it? Dollar per golfer, who are you looking at here with your next two? Yeah, Dollar per golfer is looking pretty healthy at the moment. I'm going to still stick in that 7500 range for my first pick just because I know that you guys are going to have to take someone around that price coming back. So I'm going to go and take Chainville Phillips here. Now, Chainville Phillips isn't perhaps the same sort of golfer that I've drafted so far and too easy. He doesn't disease the same driving distance, but he is extremely good from 150 yards and over 200 yards with approach. Those key approach metrics they're really diving into this week. You can see that translated with his result at the Valspar Championship earlier this year. As I mentioned, we've had multiple golfers win both of these tournaments, the Sanderson Vals and the Valspar. Finished there earlier this season gaining ton of shots when putting, also gained a ton of strokes on approach there as well. Wasn't necessarily his best week on approach last time at the pro-court championship. That is of a minor concern, but I do like the upside that he brings. I think the 7500 he's got a lot of options to him. We have seen some of these shorter hitters actually find success here. Players like Manati, who has won the Kinsey Hughes, for example, who isn't the longest off the tee. Next halo obviously as well, another shorter hitter of ours found success here too. Doesn't necessarily have to be all driving distance, even though I do have that being a rather large edge in terms of my model. I'm going to start off with him. I'm then going to go and take Ben Griffin, who I think is going to get missed a little bit in that 9K range. Very good result recently, seventh at the Wyndham Championship. He's been gaining a ton of strokes on approach. Obviously we haven't seen him since the FedEx St Uge as well, so not necessarily anything to go off in terms of his recent form. Finish 2nd here last year, so that already speaks to his aptitude round this golf course as well as a 24th win on debut. So come with really nice results in the results that he has had here. Again mentioning the Innonus Brook Resort connection, he finished 17th there earlier this season. He's made Detroit Golf Cup twice, he's finished 33rd and 31st. Bear in mind those results are the Valspan and Detroit Golf Cup are much stronger fields than what he finds this week. So I think he's got tons of meat upside, I do think he gets missed a bit in that 9K range. So I think he's a nice value that you can go and look at to contract your lineup this week. Chandler Phillips and Ben Griffin, two solid picks, really rounding out your squad nicely and still have a lot of money to spend. I was definitely looking at Chandler Phillips, Ben Griffin I like, there were some other guys in that range I was targeting, old for him. I'm not sure how much I'm in my player pool, maybe because you're on him I might be more into him, we will see. But for me with my next pick, I'm going to go with Adam Fenson here. Adam Fenson, another guy who's just been playing really good golf as of recent. The ball striking has been very good, I won't say it's going to happen, but very good. Since June, he's only lost the strokes on approach once at the Rockin' Mortgage. I think the outlier here is, he's gained a ton of strokes putting in his last two tournaments, five strokes and seven strokes between the Prochronal Window. He gave you a 13th and a 7th place, but it's an outlier frame, he's not that bit of a putter. If he's able to continue to find that magic this week, I think he'd get you a nose spectacular result, that putter being red hot, he's got enough consistency in the rest of his game to translate. However, we've seen him lose eight strokes, six strokes putting multiple times this season, so that's the wild card, you know, most recently we've seen a really good putter out if that carries over. I think he'd get a really strong result again this week from Adam Spence in. Spence, we'd love your take on the last few picks in the Europe of your fifth. I really like the Chandler Phillips pick from David, so there are a handful of golfers for me to where I was trying to find names that had a higher ceiling potential than what my overall rank was for them. Pearson Cootie was one of them, that's the reason why I liked him. Chandler Phillips would be the other name that like those two were kind of interchangeable with each other for who my model thought had some of the higher ceilings for the price that we were getting. So like the pick and then any time you can get Ben Griffin on Bermuda, I think it's almost a no brainer to have to consider him in those spots. And I agree with David that I kind of thought that we would have higher ownership for him just because he's second place last year, I had an outright ticket on him. He lost that in the most grueling fashion, he should have won that golf tournament. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance, fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds. This progressive offers discounts for pain and full, owning a home, and more. Plus you can count on their great customer service to help you when you need it, so your dollar goes a long way. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save on car insurance. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates, potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations. This is a mini-meditation guided by Bombas. Repeat after me, I'm comfy, comfy, I'm cozy, cozy, I've zero blisters on my toes, listers. And that's 'cause I wear Bombas, the softest socks underwear and t-shirts that give back. One purchased equals one donated. Now go to bombas.com/listen and use code "listen" for 20% off your first purchase. That's B-O-M-B-A-S dot com slash "listen" and use code "listen" at checkout. I don't know what the reason is that, I mean, it's 14% ownership I see right now. This is not as if it's a zero total that we have, but I kind of thought initially when this week opened that he could be the most popular player on the board when he got placed into this $9,000 range and, you know, he's not there yet. We'll see where it moves over the next 24 hours. But like both of those picks back to back from David, I'm gonna take a golfer here with my fifth selection that I see 10.5% ownership. And, you know, we've talked about this a lot on this show. This is not, you guys can probably guess based off of this early description. This is not a golfer that's long. It's not a golfer that's accurate. It's a name that's always finding himself higher priced on these boards, but doesn't necessarily have the driving acumen that you'd want to see for a tournament. And of course, I'm speaking of Eric Cole in this position here, but I've kind of held this belief for a really long time that when you get a course that doesn't have a true identity and it allows you to have every skill set that you could really imagine off the tee, I don't think his misses are going to be quite as glaring and I don't think his lack of distance is going to be as glaring either. So when I ran this from a weighted strokes gain total perspective, he ended up grading as the number one player for me overall. There's other concerns in my model that pushed him just outside of the top 10. But I'm going to bet on that ability to make putts on Bermuda. I'm going to bet on that ability for him to have his way to proximity from these critical ranges. Like him and Ben Griffin, when I like one, I usually like the other, I would make a very strong argument that if you let me pick which one I wanted of the two, I would rather have Ben Griffin, but we're still in the same ballpark here to where Cole is going to go slightly under the radar when you compare him to Fishburn and Dunlap and Griffin and pretty much everybody else above him. I imagine him and Yeager will probably be the lowest owned guys, $9,000 and above. So it creates a little bit of leverage with what I have with this lineup right now with which I think is a good route for me to take with a lot of chalk that I have made. I like the pick. I think Eric Cole is a guy we've seen produce some really good results. There's upside. I actually thought it's a good pricing. I thought he could have been priced higher for his pedigree in this tournament. So with that being said, I definitely endorsed by me, Audience, it looks like he got one in. We need the second one doubled before we finalize your two picks. As we wait for that second one, David, we would love your take on Eric Cole. Yeah, I mean, as soon as Ben starts mentioning a player who's need a long no accurate of material immediately, just like Eric Cole, just as Eric Cole's, there's like his entire being. Look, I have a reason why it's been said to mention these two names when you see Eric Cole's going to go on their own and so it's being preferred and it's because they're sandwiched in between Patrick Fishburn and Nick Dunlap, who are clearly, you know, great players. I can actually understand the reason why the ownership is going there. And it comes down to like, sometimes you're at a tube when you're building these DFS lineups that actually sometimes just fading that toward, especially in a tournament like this where the shortest price golf is over 20 to one, that just indicates that Vegas in the book makers think that this is a wide open tournament and that anybody can really come out and get 10 and that it's really is a toss up. We haven't got anyone, you know, seven to one in this field who is like, that's an obvious player that you should almost be stacking every single line up. So because of that, sometimes just dodging the ownership is going to be a really, really good strategy and that brings Eric Cole into that frame of mind and he still managed to find this way as Ben's mentioned to get to the top of the leaderboards, even though the fact that off the tee is never going to be the greatest player on the BJI tour. That's a really good point, especially in this wide open tournament. I was almost a bigger value on ownership and finding your edge there. So I like that audience, great job, locking the final two picks, Mark Hubbard and Sheamus Power, rounding out the audience's squad. Oh, you did a really good job tonight. I think your team looks pretty solid, well balanced, good strategy was kind of saving some of your money and still getting a stud late. I like the audience's team. I think they're going to be able to come out and compete. Spanish would love your take on power and Hubbard and then you got your last pick. I was trying to convince myself all week to get exposure in the outright market to Sheamus I didn't end up going down that direction with it. I would have liked a couple points more, but I think Sheamus is a good play this week. I don't really have much to say other than that, but he's a golfer that we could talk about the whole entire top of the board and this is where the problem comes into play, where you have the dumb laps of the world and the names like that that are starting to move ahead of them on the odds board. So if you want to say that they're overpriced, sure that's an okay argument to be made there. But I think with that nature, what we're going to see happen over the next 24 hours is names like Keith Mitchell and Sheamus Power and a lot of those options are just going to continue to get lower and lower in ownership and I don't necessarily want to play the game where they're not in my player pool where yes, they're slightly negative values on the surface, but they all of a sudden become leverage options to consider in that route there. So I assume Sheamus will be in my player pool, he's definitely trending in that direction right now. So I like the selection. All right. Sheamus Power Indoors spent seventy three hundred. You got one high closing up the squad. Let me ask you guys this question before I make the pick because to me, there's, there's two players that I am considering between one is going to be one of the most popular players down in this section, Nick Hardy, good course history, good fit for this tournament. The other one is more of that wild card factor where he's also trending a little bit more upwards with ownership. I see about five to six percent right now, which I didn't even think we would get that. But, you know, Joel, this seems to be your and my boy a lot of these weeks. That's Rio hit set soon a so before I make the selection here, I'm going to throw it over to you guys thoughts on hits at soon a thoughts on hardy and thoughts on the ownership for each one of them. I think with with this at soon a, you know, I like him and I always look at him, you know, the upside is there. So if you're paying a GPP, it's a shot the issue with him is there's also a high volatility and you can miss the time and you got the amount of do you want to stomach that risk with the high upside high volatility or would you rather go up the safer play and hardy. You know, I usually am going for the ceiling and going for the both upside. So this at soon it would be my thing. David, any thoughts? Yeah. I mean, first, massive compliments to the both of you pronouncing high set soon a correctly especially Joel because we know that that is a real difficulty for him to get their word out. Huge congratulations. I'm very, very proud of you. Nick Hardy on paper for me looks the better option just because of his sets in a lake driving distance. He does tend to do better at these golf courses. We drive accuracy is really important. We saw down the DP wheelchair when he won at the golf nationale, one of the highest correlations between driving accuracy and success. I do think that they're both playable for me. I would probably go for hardy just because of his approach metrics and most of the damage with hardy comes with the plunder, but he was actually field average at the pro core and before that we hadn't seen him since beginning of August. So maybe Sam found something in the break. I'm sure that he's been doing tons of putting drills and obviously he's got the 30-year back in 2023 as well, which I think is a promising correlation to. So hardly for me and just to throw another name out there, I like Grace and Sig and that they arranged it. I think he's someone to also consider. I'm going to regret going down this path. I have enough exposure to Rio. I bet I'm at 150 to one. I guess in fairness I do have a hardy match up also against Vincent Waley. But I'm going to put a little bit of safety here. I think in a four-man contest, I already have the volatility with Thor Bjornsson. If you're playing large field GPP, I love throwing Thor Bjornsson and Rio into a lineup together and seeing what you get out of them, that's going to be something that's going to be widely built for me this week, but I'll go to Safer out here. I'll go hardy. It's the chalk route, unfortunately, of the two, but I do think from a safety perspective, it probably makes slightly more sense for what we're doing. Yeah, I do. I think that's something that makes sense, especially in a four-man, that's probably the better route. All right, I got 6,500 left to wrap out my squad. I am a little bit drafting by kind of being forced into this range and I really know we didn't. But if I do have to go down to this range, I think Roger Sloane is interesting. Roger Sloane has been pretty good on his approach since, again, the Rockin' Mortgage. He's gained almost two strokes or more in each tournament except for the Pro-Core last week where he lost, but before that, he's been pretty consistent. He's also been pretty good with his putter. He's typically not grown off the team, but he gained four strokes of the team at the Pro-Core, so he found something there. I think he can get you a really good result at 6,500. At the window, he was 12th. He was 37th at the Pro-Core, so he's playing a little bit of better golf than his average. I hope that translates and carries over this week as well. David, you got your last pick here with 9,500 to spend. Would love your take on Sloane and how are you finishing off your squad? I kind of panicked a little bit when you said Roger, but then I hadn't really looked at how much salary that you had left, so that prelude to my final pick is going to be. But, yeah, look, I mean, of course history here is actually decent enough when he's played twice, but finished 14th and 32nd. As I mentioned, it's a lot of golf clubs, it's got a lot of correlation, particularly in the approach metrics. You never finished worse than 49th and 4th starts, including two 21st finishes, including on debut. That always sparked my interest when the player sees a golf course for a very first time in tournament and tends to put it together a decent result. So, I think it's a reasonable option if you find yourself down in the lowly 6K range. As I mentioned, my players obviously going to include Roger in the name of some format and that is Patrick Rogers. I will preface this by saying that he would have been my main selection here. Had I had the option, I would have gone other routes, obviously, there's better names in this range. But, in saying that, I think Patrick Rogers probably gets a bit of a hard time for his lack of winnakerity. Yes, if Fishbread was here, I'd play him, yes, if the Eagle was here, I'd probably play him next, so I'd probably read the order that I'd go. But I do think it's reasonable to have some exposure to Patrick Rogers. I mean, the guy hasn't finished worse than 3d7 since mid-June, so I mean, he's playing decent enough golf, including in some stronger fields than what he finds this week as well. And when he played this, I mean, speaking of playing well on debut, his first two starts here, he finished 20th and 14th, so decent enough correlation. I think that his combination of driving distance, approach metrics and a really hot putter, like extremely hot putter in times, he does produce decent upside, at least he's going to get you some equal points potentially as well, plenty of birdies and look, I take the point that he may be like some of the upside and that is why a lot of people are avoiding him. But, comes back to that point, I made about ownership, sometimes taking that risk on a guy who could have found something in the last two months, could have been working with a sport psychologist to get over their hurdle and go out and get his first victory, sometimes playing those differential plays can be really profitable in the end. On the metric side, Patrick Rogers really touched this golf course on paper. Patrick Rogers, interesting, I think we made this point earlier, he fits the mold of, you know, in a traditional tournament, Patrick Rogers probably doesn't have the most upside, but in this field, he certainly does, and I think he's a more premier talent than a lot of the guys that are surrounding him, so I like that pick, I like where you're going there. That is a wrap for tonight's draft, before we get you out here, don't forget to hit the like button and give us a follow, it goes a long way. Also, you're out already, sign up for the win daily, you know, while we draft here, you watch our show, we're going to give out some first run leaders before we wrap up, if you get into our discord after signing up, we will also be dropping outright tickets, we'll be dropping weather updates, as we get closer to Thursday, there might be a weather edge and win the guys are teeing off, you can get that there, follow along to get those picks, you also get access to Stephen's ownership article to understand which ownership is trending, going into Thursday and how you can target different guys to make sure you're giving yourself your best chance to compete when you get into these GPs. Before we wrap up though, as promised, we do have first run leader plays, and sometimes based on the first run leader market, we might just give a match up play, a match up bet that you can go after to get you out of here. David, I'd love to start with you, who are you looking at in the first run leader market? David, you're on mute here. Thank you mate, look, we've been away for three weeks and completely forgot how to click the unmute button. Look, segway's nicely into this first run leader market for me, because as you mentioned, jumping into the wind daily discord does prove to be very beneficial, no, two of the guys that I drafted were in my beating picks this week, and I can reveal the numbers, because I can reveal the names, because the numbers have changed since we dropped them, and that was Nick Dunlap and Taylor Moore, Taylor Moore, we got a 55 with eight places, we got Nick Dunlap at 33 to one with eight places, there's no chance that you can go and find those numbers now, and that's part of the reason why you're in the wind daily discord. So, jump into the link in the description, you can have 50% off your membership with the promo code, and yeah, pay us a little $7 after your week, so, completely have options there, and we'd love to have you as part of the wind daily family. So segwaying that into my first run leader is I have got Nick Dunlap on the card at 33 to one, sorry, at 45 to one for the first run leader. Now, in his last seven events he's finished in the top 12, four times for first run leader, he is the store famine, but that is kind of what you want for the first run leader market, and this is a golf course that really suits him. Taylor Moore, you can find him at 60 to one, which is a highly inflated number. That number hasn't moved as much of this as outright numbers, so I think that there's a lot of value there to be found. Chandler Phillips at 66 to one, I think, is decent value as well. Peirce and Kootie, who was drafted on the show 90 to one in the first run leader market, now he was first run leader four starts ago at the Isco Championship, I should know because I had him on my card along with Regal Oe, he was second at that tournament, they both made the play off, he was sure that we were going to catch a winner, neither of them managed to get the job done, but like him in the first run leader market here at 91. And final one is Big Longshot, who I also drafted on the show at 6200 for his DP salary, and that's Cal one at 150 to one. I mean, if you're going to roll the dice on a long shot first round leader, this is the tournament to do it in this type of field, he can show him the upside to go and do this in the past, tons of driving distance, can get very, very hot with the planter, can go against some Eagles and could easily be a first round leader at minus seven minus eight, so love him at 151 as well to round out the card. Love it, love it, how about you, Spence, who are you looking at in the first round leader market? I don't have a card right now, I will drop it in the win daily discord before this tournament starts. Say though, if we're looking for morning tea time guys that have a positive trajectory for upside, it's a lot of the names that David just mentioned, it's the Nick Dunlaps, it's the Chandler Phillips, it's the Pearson kudos of the world, JJ spawn would be another one of those options there, Andrew Novak, two of your guys this week Joel, but it's probably going to be some combination for me of those five players built into whichever capacity makes sense. I love it, alright, I have four for you, being, I wasn't as shaded toward the early tea time as they were, I just got to be at four plays, I'm looking at value here, starting off with Matt Kutcher at 60 to one, like the way he's playing and one of the guys I dropped it as well. I'm going to throw out David Lipsky here at 100 to one, he also says a guy that tends to show up in first rounds, he's really good on approach, not a great potter, but he can find a potter for one day, 100 to one, taking us that first round leader, Austin Smotherman at 100 to one, another guy that's going to need to hit some putts, but a good approach player, 100 to one is a big number for a guy that can, that can really optimize himself in one round, and the last one I'm going to give is Parker Kootie at 100 to one, you know, he's their brothers, they're both have a lot of upside, to me reason, we've seen them pop on day ones before, they've come out these tournaments, again, they don't have experience, maybe they'll fall over four days, but in one day, at 100 to 21, I think they have enough upside to get the job done. That is a wrap for tonight, fellas, it was a pleasure to be back, I am looking forward to a fun tournament at Sanderson's Farms this week, am I forgetting anything? Just a touch on that David Lipsky thing, he is a dreadful potter, but he's also probably very well at the Sony Open, which is also played on Bermuda, and he's typically shown on these slower surfaces that he can produce, so I do like that play, he was actually pretty close to making my beating card in the outright markets as well, so Savvy Savvy Pick from New John, I'm glad that we got to mention, the stud that is David Lipsky, because in the Sanderson Farms Championship plays like David Lipsky's, that's how it really starts. If there's a spot to play David Lipsky, it's the Sanderson Farms, that's the spot that they go after them, I appreciate that, have a ton of fun draft with you tonight, follow along, let us know who's lineup you think is going to do best, we'll come back next week, crown and winner, and do it again, good luck, and of course, David, sports, thank you. Hey everybody, I'm Trevor Sykama, host of the PFF NFL show here to tell you what you can find on all of our shows throughout the week, on Mondays, we have the Great Release Show, where myself and Paul Washman break down every single game that you just saw in the NFL. On Tuesdays, we have the quarterback breakdown with Seth Galina on Wednesdays, we've got the rookie review with John Ledyard, and the preview for the upcoming week in the NFL, so make sure you are subscribed to the PFF NFL show wherever you get your podcast. This is a PSA, or public sock announcement. Cheers have declared Bomba socks as the best way to warm up chili feet, these pairs are super cushy, soft and designed for maximum coziness, plus for every pair purchased, another pair will be donated, so someone in need of essential clothing can stay warm this winter. Go to bombas.com/listen and use code LISTEN for 20% off your first purchase, that's B-O-M-B-A-S dot com slash listen, and use code LISTEN at checkout. A King Super's Pharmacy Care is making it easy to get vaccinated. Care is helping you stay protected from flu, COVID and RSV. Seasonal vaccines are available seven days a week with evening hours. Care is giving you a shot at staying healthy this season. Walk in whenever is best and get multiple vaccines in one visit at your local King Super's door. Visit kinksoopers.com/vaccines for more restrictions and exclusions apply. See site for details. Hey everybody I'm Trevor Sykama, host of the PFF NFL show here to tell you what you can find on all of our shows throughout the week on Mondays. We have the great release show where myself and Gull Washman break down every single game that you just saw in the NFL on Tuesdays. We have the quarterback breakdown with Seth Galina on Wednesdays. We've got the rookie review with John Ledyard and the preview for the upcoming week in the NFL. You are subscribed to the PFF NFL show wherever you get your podcasts. [Music] (exhales deeply)
The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Sanderson Farms Championship First Round Leader picks!
