There's no recession, right? B, because the economy is strong. But when you look at, we added half a percent, 52 basis points at the minimum to the GDP numbers to get them to where they were. And that was all government spending. You're listening to Carrie Lutz's financial survival network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else. To thrive in today's trying times, you need the financial survival network now more than ever. Go to financialsurvivalnetwork.com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial survival network, now more than ever. And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. And noted economic expert Ed Seidel is with us. Ed, we got to talk about these GDP numbers. The economy is doing so great. Why is everyone so miserable? Well, yeah, the reports are, there's no recession, right? B, because the economy is strong. But when you look at, we added half a percent, 52 basis points at the minimum to the GDP numbers to get them to where they were. And that was all government spending. That's inflationary. We were talking about it right before we started. I just wanted to double check the numbers. Did you know so far this year, fiscal year 2024, that we have already spent $6.75 trillion already? Really? And I would not be shocked if our debt hits 36 trillion on election day, where they're out. Got a question for you. Yeah, hey, right before it. Trump's proposing elimination of the federal income tax. Now, I want to take my champagne bottle out now. And replacement with some type of, he said, tariff. But I think of that would also be required there. Is this doable? You know what? I actually, when he first said it, I was like, yeah, boy, that's that's kind of out there. And then I remembered, you know, something that our Laffer said earlier in the year. So I started looking at it. And it really is. It really is doable. And you know, the VAT or consumption tax. But yeah, I think it really, really is. You know, some of the other things that he was talking about, which is doing away with taxes on Social Security, you know, they were talking about adding to the national debt. But you know, it's always the opposite of what you really think, because you know, when you look at the math behind a statement like that, and you just go back to, you know, the current tax plan that we're in right now, that goes away. It sunsets, you know, the December 31st is 2025. You know, we are taking in more tax revenues now under the current tax code, which was, you know, under the Trump administration. Then in the history of the United States, the problem is, is that we're spending more. I think in August, we talked about this last time. We took in like 400 and over $400 billion in one month, and we spent over, you know, 480 billion deficit. We overspent, you know, 480 billion. So, you know, when you look at these tax-reducing strategies, you know, can we add more tax revenue? And I think the answer is yes, absolutely, because when you look at, you know, he also wants to reduce the business tax, you know, from, you know, the current 21 down to 15%. And I think that's also going to have a very positive impact on tax revenues. So how is that going to have a positive twist on tax revenues? Well, now more people from a consumption standpoint, they're going to be able to live a higher standard of living. You know, they're going to be able to spend more, which is going to create more tax revenues, you know, over the long haul. You know, especially with the tariffs, you know, if companies are having to spend 100, 200%, I'm using Trump's words more just to bring their goods and services into the US, what are they going to do? They're going to open up factories here in the US, which is going to increase the revenue base. And that's how he's going to accomplish that. So, you know, it's very ingenious. You really have to think outside of the box. But once you do the math, I think it's a very doable deal. So what about the no taxes on tips? I mean, is that just a pandering vote-buying type thing? Or, you know, can you really do that fairly? 'Cause it is income, although you can make the argument that it's a gift. Yeah, and you know what, you know, in the service industry, so my middle son is a server at a higher end restaurant. And, you know, the tips, so he's not even making minimum wage. And, you know, those that are in that service industry, it's the difference between, if you're not having to pay taxes on those tips, it's the difference between making ends meet and, you know, not having to get a second job. So I think it really is from a quality of life standpoint, it's gonna be life-changing for, you know, the working-class American, for sure. And, yeah, I mean, it's really not fair, but there are highly paid waiters and waitresses and wait staff at fine restaurants. You know, they're late in six figures. Yes. And same with, you know, in Vegas, one of the best paid jobs in this valley, parking car, and made, right? Oh, without a doubt. And, you know, think about it like this, Kerry, is that we're moving away from cashless society. So, you know, those tips, everything's going to be, you know, electronic, whether it's through credit cards, or, you know, they're pushing through the CBDC, Central Bank Digital Currency. Sure, they're gonna be able to track it, you know. And if you don't have to pay taxes on those electronic transfers, you know, it is, you know, it's gonna add a lot to the economy. And you're right, you know, the restaurant chain, if you will, they're all high-end restaurants that my son works at, he goes to college too. But, you know, everyone in there, you know, it's, it's, you know, mid six figures. I mean, they're hoping it, but they definitely earn it for sure, so. Yeah, fascinating, fascinating. So, I just, you know, really interest me the way this happens. Policy emerges because, you know, you don't start with a clean slate. So, you gotta work with what's there. But really, in so many areas of what the government does, we need to, like, throw out virtually everything it does and start the thing over again, 'cause it's so messed up and it's so corrupted. And this really is a change election, you know, not talking about politics, but about policy. Policy's far more important than politics. Politics just gets people at each other's throats. Policy, you actually work together to solve problems. Something we've seemingly been unable to do in this country for, you know, 20 years or more. Well, you're right. You know, what's that old saying? If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. You know, Elon Musk, what he did with Twitter now, X, you know, in cutting the fat, you know, looking at, you know, what they're looking, you know, to trimming the fat for, you know, government employees. And, you know, probably a little tongue-in-cheek when he said, you know, hey, we're gonna give two years worth of severance so that that way they can figure out what they wanna do next. But we're overspending so much. You know, a lot of the jobs that we've added this year, just like last year, I mean, they're government, federal government jobs. And that is nothing but inflationary. You know, I heard that there's, it's over 50% of the employees in DC are still working from home. They're not even in the office. So, you know, are they really needed and necessary? You know, and I'm asking, 'cause I, you know, honestly, I don't know. And you're coming on policy versus politics. You know, that's a big deal. There was an article that came out when, you know, their mid-sized businesses and obviously the Fortune 500, you know, CEOs were asked this question. Yeah, what would you rather see? Would you rather see lower taxes or less regulation? Do you know what over 90% responded was? Less regulation. - Yeah. - Right, because, you know, all of these regulations, it's business prevention. Now, look, I believe me, I'm big on the environment. I'm an outdoorsman. You know, I don't want to see water bottles and trash everywhere I go. But, you know, when the EPA turns a puddle into a lake or a pond and you can't even do it on your own property. You know, that becomes, so. - Complete madness. Yeah. All right, well, so once the election is over, silly season, where do you see the market heading? The market seems to be pricing in a Trump victory, in my opinion. - Without a doubt, without a doubt. You know, we're seeing a couple things. You know, we're seeing these, you know, Trump trades that are being placed, you know, value companies, those companies with strong balance sheets. And, you know, what's been very ironic is, you know, even as companies are coming out, you know, beating expectations on the street as the earnings have come out. You know, those companies have remained very flat. But, you know, we're already starting to see movement in healthcare. We're already starting to see movement in energy. And again, I think the markets are pricing in, you know, a Trump victory. But one of the other things that the markets are pricing in, especially the bond markets, is that even though the Fed's lowered rates 50 basis points, and I think they're probably gonna lower them again. Another, you know, 25 dips in a couple of weeks. I don't say I agree with it. I understand why they're doing it. The bond market is like, yeah, inflation isn't going away anytime soon. And so yields are going high. So, you know, I think that there's, you know, a little push pull going on in the markets right now. And I think everyone's kind of anxious to see what's gonna happen, you know, a week from today, the outcome of the election. Yeah, well, we'll know a week from today. That's for sure. All right, I appreciate your coming on, sharing your opinions on things. Tell us again where we find you, how we connect with you. Yeah, you can find us on the interwebs@egsifinancial.com. All right, the link is in the show notes, this interview on financialsurvivalnetwork.com. While you're there, please sign up for a free newsletter, like 40,000 other subscribers have done. And if you got any questions, shoot me an email, kl@carreluts.com. It always a pleasure, be well. Talk to you after the election. Absolutely, thank you very much. Thanks for listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to financialsurvivalnetwork.com. 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