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Inside Texas Football
IT Live (11/05): Scouting the Florida Gators, Weekly Games of Interest
Good morning, everybody. Texas Omer here with Paul Waddington. And we are going to break down the Florida Gators for you, like we always do on the Tuesday show. First, we'll talk about their offense. They've had some struggles there. You guys know with quarterback, their defense. They've had some struggles there in the secondary with injury. And then we're going to talk opponent games of interest, but also games that we're not necessarily going to play, but they have implications on the SEC title race. And then as always, your questions can drive us right off course. We always appreciate that. Bring it on. Good morning, Drew M. Happy to see you guys. All right, so we didn't have a game last week, so we don't really have any quick thoughts on Texas. But I think the bi-week, important kind of notes for me on the bi-week offensive line, run blocking, guys staying on their little blocks together, winning their solos is going to be a big key. And then how does Quinn perform against the simulated blisters and stuff like that we're going to see versus Florida. So it's kind of what I'm looking for at Texas. Hopefully, guys are heels and rested. But I'm not always sure with bi-weeks. Sometimes bi-weeks are weird, man. Sometimes they're not good for you mentally. Like staying in the fight works. You're going to heal physically, but sometimes people come out a little flat. I'm always kind of iffy on bi-weeks, returning great results. Yeah, I kind of felt like this one might have been well timed because there's some stuff that needed to get fixed offensively. Defense, good to go. I don't have any problems with what's been going on on that side of the ball. But I feel like the offense needed to get in tune. And I'm getting to the point where I don't really want to hear about Quinn's practices. He did have a good week of practice, though, if you're wondering. That's great. Ralph's for CRISP, et cetera. This is a veteran quarterback with 30-something starts under his belt now. So it's about the games. Yeah, did you see the helm comment? I did. Yeah. Not ideal, right? Not ideal. I mean, I don't know. Look, you can read too much into it. I mean, we kind of comb over every word they say because we don't hear much from the player. So we can overanalyze, but I did think it was interesting. For the fans that didn't see, basically Helm kind of was just saying, hey, Quinn is going to hit his shots. He's going to get his confidence back up. And he didn't say it as some allegation. But of course, us board fans were like, oh, his confidence is not up. What does that mean? What does that mean? Yeah. And then if he said Quinn is extremely confident, we would have been like, see, it's that arrogance that gets you. Exactly. There's no win. When you're not playing well, there's no way to win. You can't be right. No way to win. Eli Manning was playing poorly for the Giants. It's because he's too quiet and dopey and not a real leader. And then when he's playing well, it's like, see, this is why you want a guy that's a quiet professional. And it's so big, you know, is about his business. Yeah. Yeah, that's the that's the fun of being a quarterback and the fun of being a quarterback of a big program. But it will be important to kind of see. We are we are definitely everyone's kind of watching Quinn of grading them a little harsher. But great talk for to all fans. Let's do it, man. Although we're probably going to offer some caveats on a bunch of this because of some, uh, yeah, some. Oh, dude. Oh, you didn't hear it. Lagway's healed, dude. Oh, yeah. Lagway's going to start. Yeah. Ripping his hamstring and going off on a cart. Because hamstrings, man, those are notoriously fast healers. Yeah. And you can't reactivate them, either, is what I've heard. I have mildly tweaked my hamstring before. And I swear to God, I felt that twinge and that tweak for about three months. And I couldn't one stair down, right? Like, and I did nothing compared to probably what Lagway did. So yeah, Lagway's not it's not one of those. It's not one of those injuries too, but you can take the shot and tape it up. And then just deal with the consequences the next day. It's hamstrings don't work that way. So well, in Napier, too, was like, well, because in the nature of his position, he could play. It's like, first off, he runs. So that's a problem. Also you plant on it. Correct. All your base is off of there. So it's like, I get it. He was trying to say, like, look, he's not a D linemen. That's having to explode off of it. But it's like, you're a football player. You're going to be using the biggest part of your leg, your hamstring. So it was-- but that was some funny gamesmanship for him to be like, well, we haven't-- I think the key word there is, like, we haven't completely rolled him out versus Texas. It's like, OK, so he's 99% out. Also, Tim Tebow may have some eligibility that they're looking into. Yeah. I expect Ford has run game to be better than Mississippi State. I also expect Ford has run game to have the same plan as they did and play to keep it close. Yeah, we'll talk about that in a second. Yeah, there's some validity to that. Yeah. Lagway is cooked. Yeah. Yeah, and which sucks, because that's a great kid on top of being a special talent. And so-- and he's a wild card because of his deep ball ability that he helps the run game, because you do have to keep the safeties back against him, because he'll throw it regardless, and he'll complete it. So that was a big loss. It sucked. And also, he's a Texas kid. Lagway's got respect in the football community in Texas. So it was a bummer to see that. So what's interesting with Florida's record, you would think like they would have to have like a really bad offense or a really bad defense, and they don't. Actually both, and like their efficiencies, are pretty solid, like 27th overall offense in the country prior to being on their third string quarterback, right? Adjusted for opponent. Right. Yeah. So points for game, 63rd. And so we can explain to fans, they had Mertz first. He got the start. Second lowest average depth of target in the league. So just kind of keeping the ball moving, that kind of stuff. Nothing too crazy. But then the murmur from the fans of Lagway's arm ability, he started-- they started doing this like every two drives. They would rotate Lagway in before Mertz went down versus Tennessee, and then Lagway just took over. So they've had decent quarterback production, but clearly they wanted kind of the exciting style that Lagway offered as well. And they started kind of introducing that into the lineup. So that also is going to alter some of your explosivity numbers, because they had low explosiveness with Mertz. And then when Lagway came in, their explosiveness went through the roof. So they were on a uptrend there, but like we said, now it's probably going to spike right back down. All right. The yards per play, 61st. Our offensive points for drive 48th. Pretty good, above average there, right? Success rate, 41st. Moving the offense at a good clip. Really bad explosiveness like we said, and we just explained. And high havoc rate. So they're dealing with a lot of like tipped passes, that kind of stuff, sacks. Now let's talk rushing offense, because Paul, you can kind of lead us here. What do you, with a young 3rd string quarterback, you think they're going to end up leaning on the run game here? Yeah, they really have to. And that quarterback, by the way, is Aidan Warner. He is a red shirt freshman, transferred in from Yale, where he initially committed. He was the three star recruit out of high school. I watched him. I wrote up a little scouting report on Inside Texas against Georgia. He was seven of 22 for 66 yards in an interception. That's a terrible stat line. But I think actually the thing that most impressed me about him is he was pretty calm. He wasn't panicky. Georgia had just jumped on what everything Florida was trying to do. And Florida wanted to run the ball, because that game was competitive into the fourth quarter. It was 2020. Florida pulled away late. It just, it couldn't, because Georgia kind of clamped down. And also, they kind of understood that the passing tree had just gone from having a bunch of branches to being a palm tree. So that's going to be the real challenge for Florida. I do think they have a pretty decent rushing offense. This is what Napier is pretty good at scheming up. And the other problem is they're running out of running backs. So Montreal Johnson's been hurt. I'm not sure if he's going to be back. Yeah, he could come back. And then they've had to start the freshmen in his place. Yeah, and the freshman looks pretty good. But they're just, you know, they're not a good enough football team to withstand those kinds of injuries. Eugene Wilson was out for that game as well. I'm not sure if he's back this week. He's probably their most dangerous receiver. He has a crazy stat. So he's been dealing with a lingering hip issue. But his crazy stat is he is first in the SEC and yards after catch per reception with the lowest average depth of target. So he's doing all the work himself. They're just throwing to him a screen and he's just going to work. So if you watch the Florida passing game without Ladway, they spread everything out and they throw side to side. Screen game, short game, quick game, single boot sprint, you know, double read, shallow receiver, deeper receiver. You make the read on a, you know, and it's all stuff that against a regular college football team could be moderately effective. I just don't see it working against Texas. Our defensive backs are too good. They're too high IQ. And we just, we've got good corners that can lock you down. We've got safety to play the ball. I think we're going to play a lot of zone. I think we want to put our eyes on the football and make breaks on his throws because he doesn't have many routes he's going to be throwing. Yeah, and that also freaks out young quarterbacks. And so, and like, so there were like two passes he made that I thought where I was like, oh, nice. You know, like he has some arm talent. And then the other ones would be absolute ducks that couldn't even make it like eight yards. So he's, if everything is perfect in a vacuum, his arm is serviceable. He can do what he needs to do. The issue is he's so young and inconsistent that it's going to be major problems. And he threw one pick when they needed it, but also he had a bunch of other turnover worthy kind of plays there. Yeah, he got sacked twice. You know, I got to say he actually negotiated Georgia's pass rush better than we did. So, you know, he's, he's, he's got some poise to him, but he's just not very good yet. And in fact, he missed spring ball. I don't know if you know that. No, so he, he got the third string job. Obviously, when you're the third string quarterback, you're not getting a lot of reps. And he's, his main reps have started happening a couple of weeks ago, you know, as the second teamer. But imagine this, your starter was a true freshman. So Florida is even trying to have even more reps for lagway than the second team guy because they're trying to get him prepared. So it's just a bad situation for Warner. And you got to pick off on the road in Austin. Yeah, I thought it was going to be the other quarterback according to their depth chart. And he's the one they got beat out by Fowler and Nickelocia Colorado. Yeah, he was the quarterback at Colorado State and then Fowler and Nickelocia beat him out. Yeah. And so it's like, so that was interesting too, that an older player ended up getting the fourth spot, especially when that third stringer didn't play in the spring. And they said he basically took the third string job like the end of fall camp. Yep. So we're positioned, but he's a, you know, we're trying to be nice. He's a third string quarterback, you know, for a reason. So it's like he, he's limited there. Now our Navy are going to be, so here's the thing, right? I think Navy are still going to try to run their offense. And not the lag way offense because that just includes throwing 50 yard bombs and completing. But I don't think, I think going too gimmicky and too obvious, you're going to lose either way here. So it's almost like try to see if you can get the kid, if lag was going to be hurt, try to get the kids some real offensive reps. Yeah, I'll be honest, man. I think the offense they're going to run is what Mississippi State ran against us. And I think that they're counting on when you were self-destructing or the offense self-destructing and keeping us, keeping them in the game. So they're going to call the game that way until we demonstrate otherwise. And then it, but if it's 21, nothing Texas, then they're not going to just hand the ball off, right? But if it's 10, seven midway through the second quarter, they're just going to hand the ball off and basically count on us shooting ourselves in the foot. Yeah, once we look at their defense too, you're going to see that their defensive build is exactly what's been giving us issues as well, their philosophy. Texas needs to get Wilson out of the portal next year. I expect him and Johnson to play. Yeah, so Wilson's been dealing with lingering hips, so he can definitely come back. And then Johnson was like, they had him as questionable even last week for Georgia and switched him out at the last chance. So I would assume that, yeah. So they're running back, one should be back and their best wide receiver should be back is my guess. Yeah, and they've got a pretty decent power run game. Yeah, they're getting better throughout the season too. You'll see that they have a pretty solid offensive line. Their numbers don't really reflect it. 'Cause I was seeing too, like their fans were like, our number, like we're improving throughout the year. And then I looked at their yards per rush over the trend of the last three games and it's still lower than their average. So it's just, I think it's just visually become more appealing. Like it doesn't look like that, you know, but statistically it hasn't become a better game. But they're also playing Tennessee and Kentucky and Georgia now. In fairness, they're playing the best defensive lines in the SEC. Exactly. Yeah, that's tough. But I do, I agree that I think they do look better just like I test wise. Sit on everything short and play a lot of one high. What do you think? You could, or just play our base defense. And honestly, you can tell your safety's can be back and then they can run up, you know, we could be shifting around and doing a lot of movement pre-snap that this quarterback's not gonna be accustomed for to do. The other thing to do is we're not super likely to outnumber the box unless we're forced to, right? It's not really what we do. So I think the bigger thing for Pete, all things being equal, if he can just completely destroy your passing game, he doesn't really care if you're getting a little run here and there. It's just not a big deal. And then the key is, you know, on third and two, do you stop him? Right. Yeah, it's the least efficient mode of transportation. Like running the ball is like taking a skateboard, you know, versus like passing, which is a car. So it's like, sure, you can pick up three yards here. And yeah, you're gonna be real tough. I saw a funny quote, I can't remember the journalist, but he said, he hears coaches talk about needing to establish the run so they can hit one play action shot in the fourth quarter for 15 yards and say it was worth it. And that kind of is what it is now, man. And you can talk to our Ian Boyd, man. It's passed open up the run. There's just so much machismo in the God established the run mindset from the past. Let's see. Do you expect SARC to go after the young experienced corners with all the injuries Florida has had? Yes, schematically I would. But like we said, Georgia had a below average secondary, Vanderbilt has a below average secondary and OU has a below average secondary. So just because these like yards per pass, all three of them are statistically below average and Quinn didn't dice up any of them. So just because it's on the table doesn't mean that we execute it schematically. What do you expect SARC to cook that up though? Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, Jason Marshall, starting corner for Florida. He was out, we don't know if he's back. He's out for the season. He is, okay. Yeah, Marshall doesn't. Interesting thing about him is he's like this great athlete, but he actually gives up deep balls all the time. I've watched Florida play. And so some of that is not just the players, it's schematic. So Austin Armstrong was sort of this young offensive, I mean, defensive wonder kin that came in, did a really poor job with the defense last year. The defense started off the year terribly. They got blown out by Miami at home. Wide open receivers everywhere, they're busting. Same thing against A&M. Apparently some players came to the coaches and said, hey, can we just play base defense for a while? Like all your calls, all your stuff, you're just confusing us. Can we just play base? And he consented to it and Florida's defense has played better since. So. Yeah, I saw Ian breaking it down. I haven't seen the article yet, but I assume that's where he's going with it. They're playing a lot of just straight up quarters right now. Yeah, you know, they're not like in. Now they do a really good job. Well, we're getting ahead of ourselves and talking about their defense. Let's, I will talk, I'll break down their defense once we're done with our. Sorry, that was me. No, it wasn't. It was, we started talking about the corners. So it got me off there too. Florida runs that motion pass to Wilson in the backfield. And he gains a lot of yak off that play. Yeah, he does. Like I said, to be the lowest average depth of target, highest yards after a catch means that you're entirely doing all the work yourself. You're having some good wide receiver blocking though, that in order to make it happen, I guess. Yep. So yards per rush, a little bit of below average, 4.1. But like we said, visually they're executing their schemes better. They just played really good defensive lines the past few games. I think that's reflected in the roughing success rate, right? Right. And then the explosivity is really where you pad your yards per carry, right? Yep. Classic 111050. Exactly. Yep. So what they're doing is 3, 4, 6, 3, 4. And there's never the 50. Yeah. Which is also, can be even more bludgeoning of an effect. You know, when people are getting 4, 4, 4. But yeah, they're not breaking the long runs. Which is good. I mean, you're not giving up the home runs. But yeah, as far as being able to move the ball forward, they're able to do that consistently. Well, can I give you some simple 10 thoughts on why the quarterback matters for that approach? Yeah. So basically, if you have a good running game, and it's kind of a bludgeoning running game, as Connor was describing it, not necessarily explosive one, you want one of two types of quarterback. You want DJ Lagway with a crazy arm with real beautiful touch on his deep ball, who every now and then just drops back and throws a 70 yard touchdown. That terrifies defensive coordinators. And it keeps safeties back and it creates explosives in the passing game that you're not getting out of the running game, right? Or you want a hyper-efficient guy who hits all these short passes, keeps the clock moving, and keeps converting third and three for you. Right now, Florida doesn't have either one. Because the guy doesn't have the talent of DJ Lagway, but he doesn't have the experience of like grandmurs. So they're going to be-- so this game get ready for a bunch of third and two, third and three, third and four. And if Texas gets them off the field, we're going to blow them out. Florida can convert a few of those just by throwing it to Eugene Wilson and he runs to the sticks. Then they can stay in the game, and the clock will run, and the game will get a little tighter. But I just think that they don't have the quarterback to make that approach work the way they want it to work. Yeah, and he's so single-reed right now. I mean, he's going to turn and set his feet, and any smart DB is going to be like time to jump that ball. That's why I think that we're a really bad matchup for him, particularly, because we got a bunch of high IQ guys in our secondary. And that's what I was trying to watch, too. I don't really know the entrance. But when I hear a Yale transfer, I'm like, how sharp is this kid? And that's kind of it. But he's still-- you can be sharp as hell. It doesn't matter if you're a red shirt freshman new to the offense. But I was hoping maybe we can lean on that. But also, just because you're an IV football player, doesn't mean you would have been in the IV no matter what kind of thing. Offensive line yard, it's 90th. So this is what's interesting, too. I think there's a little bit of a disconnect here. Especially when I look at like PFF grades for the run blocking and that kind of stuff, they have a pretty good offensive line. Rushing power success rate, this is important. So you're saying, if we end up in a lot of three and fours, that's not technically a power success rate. But say we do end up in third and twos, right? This is a good team at keeping that going. So that's something we have to be aware of. They do let guys get into the backfield too often. They're 96, then, stuff rate. So almost about one out of five runs are getting stopped in the backfield. All right, before I pass in offense. Dang, we're already at 20 minutes, Paul. Let us hear a word from our sponsor. I want to tell you about Laura Baker. If you're looking for a new home in the 512, or even at this point, let's face it, 737 area code, there's only one number to call. That's Laura Baker at 512-784-0505. As a member of the elite Andy Allen team with Keller Williams, Laura has helped Longhorns find the home of their dreams in central Texas. Just ask our resident sex symbol, Ian Boyd, who moved all the way from Michigan to Texas with Laura's help. Laura can help you find what you're looking for in the 512, the 737, or even parts of the 254 and the 210. Just give her a call at 512-784-0505. Her email is in the description as well as the rest of her contact details. She's a friend, give her a call. - Hell yeah, give her a call. All right, so passing plays rate. All of this has been skewed. - Well, that's the problem. When you're going through three quarterbacks, especially when there's disparate styles, it kind of changes the game here. - Well, so Graham Mertz is the ultimate high-level game manager. - Right. - When they go to the freshman phenom with the massive arm, who's trying to-- - Who's the total headhunter? - Yeah, and then they're now going to an inexperienced third string quarterback. So it's just, it's all these passing stats are kind of useless now, right? - Yeah, Drew asked Paul, do you have a set day you do? Everyone gets a trophy podcast. - I don't! It depends on whether we can get our crazy lives and schedules together, and we typically record at night, but typically we're going to try to get something up as soon as possible. And we'll certainly get something up this week. Thanks for the question. He's asking about the Everyone Gets a Trophy podcast. You can find it on Apple, Spotify, wherever you listen to pods. And I do it with an array of folks to include former Texas pitcher Randy Boone. But we don't talk about much baseball, thank God. - Wilson, DK, and Myzell all have speed, but I doubt Warner could get them to ball down the field against a below average secondary, which Texas is not. So-- - We're just going to practice one shot play, right? - And you're going to do it early, 'cause you're going to try to, you're going to do the fake, look, we're going to throw it deep. Hold your safety back, do it once in the beginning and never return to it. - Yeah, pretty much. But yeah, that's a good point. I mean, they're going to have trouble. So look, here's the bottom one. They're just going to have trouble getting the ball down the field. And so, you know, I don't think this guy's going to break 130 yards passing against us. I just think it's going to be a struggle, and it's going to be irritating to Texas fans, 'cause you're like, I thought their offense sucks, and they're going to get like six-yard gains and three. It's just not, unless our offense self-destructs and turns the ball over and tries to hand them the game, they're just going to have trouble scoring. I mean, I can easily see us holding them to 10, 14 points. - Yeah, and that's just due to the quarterback. That's just the nature of it. So they, I like their wide receiver core. So Elijah Badger, man, good player, especially with Lagway, dude, he was catching bombs, man. Now that won't be an option anymore. DK, I also like the Wisconsin transfer, six foot, 195 pounds, nothing like crazy about, there's not like one trait that you're like, whoa, that's scary up, but I think he's a well-rounded, wide receiver that can damage you kind of over the middle, intermediate, good with like a stop router or a comeback. And then Myzel is the slot that took over for Eugene Wilson or Trey Wilson as they call him. And he has 10, six, five speed. So Myzel is good and they've hit him. I think they've thrown four deep to him, but he's caught two. And then he also does really good on like the quick slants, any of that stuff underneath where you need the kind of quick hitter speed. So, but I expect Wilson to return, but we'll see. But Myzel is also their backup slot who also is a quick enough player. So I like their kind of, their core group of receivers when everyone's healthy. And then we'll talk about their tight ends too here in a second. 'Cause this is the pro style offense. So you'll see a lot of 12. And sometimes you'll even see 13 personnel. Okay. Yards per pass, 7.9, 31st in the nation. Keep in mind this was previous quarterbacks, but we're telling you what they can do when they're operating at max efficiency. - If I set the over under on yards per pass attempt for this game at five, would you take the over or the under? - I'd take the under. 'Cause we're giving up like 4.8. - He averaged 3.8 versus Georgia. - Yeah. - And we've got this outsized view of Georgia 'cause they killed our offense, but we're still a better defense than Georgia's. So that we've got, it's like the Georgia defense. Well, that's just 'cause they killed our offense, but realistically Texas has a statistically better defense. So if he was doing 3.8 there, completing 30 something percent, what are you gonna do? - Success rate 55th, that's probably more of a grandma's special, kind of holding up that stat, moving the ball forward. Passing explosivity absolutely increased with all the-- - Legway. - Legway coming in. And they do all right. The QB gets sacked about 66 in the country, about 6% of the time the quarterback will get sacked. So they, I mean, they have a, he got sacked twice against Georgia, Aidan, but they're gonna get the ball out pretty quick. And if it's not immediately there, it's just gonna throw it away or get sacked. - Yeah. Yeah, the trick I think all week with them is they're just gonna be like, throw it away, throw it away, throw it away, you know? If they can just keep him from making big mistakes and kind of scheme up easy, clear reads, that's gonna be kind of the name of the game. How creative will Napier get with this offense? Would imagine trick plays will be on display. It's all good, Bob. I don't know, man. This is why I'm kind of, I'm up to my, I feel like Napier's gonna play the offense. Now, not the, this is also why I think he's smart 'cause he obviously adapts his offense to his quarterback. If you look at Mertz versus Lagway, but I think he's gonna go more of the Mertz style. I don't think he's gonna totally go entirely gimmick-based of like pure run. I think they're gonna still try to do their tight end leagues and that kind of restrained version of their offense, personally, just from what, watching him over the years and when he was at Louisiana. But I still think they're asking the quarterback to complete some balls here, you know? - Well, after us, they host LSU. They host Ole Miss and then they end the season against Florida State. So clearly the goal is we gotta get this quarterback ready at some level for our home games and then we gotta go beat Florida State, right? - Yeah. So they're gonna, I think they're gonna, you know, they're gonna run the offense, but that offense is gonna be pretty limited. - Yeah, I think they're gonna run the scaled version, scaled down version of the offense and then they're still gonna be frustrated by what they see. - Yeah. - Florida has a good punter and kicker and APER will try to shorten this game with running the ball in field position. - Yeah, for sure. - Agreed. - Why wouldn't you? - So kind of looking at everything overall, let's look at their tight ends too. They play a lot of them. So Arles Bordingham, which I say in my breakdown, he's not, you know, disregarded. He sounds like he's a Harry Potter character, but he's a six, three, two, 45, not performing well at all. Like second graded, second to last graded SEC tight end. The one that you actually need to watch out for is Hayden Hanson. Out of the tight ends, he's the one with the most yards after catch and yards per reception. - Do you think instead of a pop pass, they have an Oombop pass? - There we go. There we go. - Thanks man. - Good stuff. That's a walk-up. You can head off if you want. - Yeah. I like when I make a joke and you really sell it and you just say way to go. - Yeah. I like, what if I just did like a really patronizing laugh for like 45 seconds? So Hayden Hanson is the one you get a laugh track on here. - Yeah, we do. I need Hayden Hanson to be the most like, you gotta be paranoid when he comes on the field. - I was boarding him. He looks like a nice athlete, but he's just not doing much for them. But also with a third string quarterback, that's a big body that's close to the line and theoretically can be an easy pass. So I would go more, I would go more, I would lean heavier on the tight ends 'cause it's easier. And you can leak them out. If you're running a lot, right, it's gonna be easy to sneak one of them out. Let's look at offensive line. So I think they're the fourth graded offensive line in pass blocking. They have like one of the lowest pressure rates. They do a good job. They're not a bad offensive line at all. So that'll be important too for Texas D line. So what's funny is like, if you look at this team schedule and also when you heard all the doom and gloom earlier in the year, it's kind of painted everyone's view of Florida. And you actually look at their numbers and how they performed with their quarterbacks healthy. There's actually a fairly good team. They had a really ugly start and they played an absolutely insanely brutal schedule. So not as bad as you think and a team you need to watch out for, especially if they had lag way. What they suck at though is third down, a hundred and second in the country and third down. 93rd and third and fourth down success rate. But like you said earlier, if they run pretty good on early down EPA. So first and second down, they're making good progress. They're just for whatever reason, not able to convert on third. Good in the red zone. Throwing some picks though, 104th in interceptions thrown per game. So what's interesting about lag way when you look at him too? So he's the number one deep passer in the SEC grade wise, but he leads the nation all of FBS and deep completion percentage, completing like 65% deep, which is absolutely insane. Wow. But then if you go and look at him in the intermediate game, second to last, and then if you look at him in the short game last in the SEC. So DJ had no actual offensive command yet. All he has is badgers looks like he's free and he has an incredible deep ball. But as far as like, and he also wouldn't come off those reads, kind of how we saw with Arch earlier, the young guys do this, where they lock onto their top read, there would be a guy open intermediate, he would never see him. You know, there'd be an option or a check down, he wouldn't take it. So lag way special, he can hit it deep, but as far as fully running an offense and exploiting every level of the field, lag way is still a young player and needed the reps before he got hurt. Main thing, Dad. Let's talk about their deep. Let's do it. That's really gonna be the game. That's 100% with the matchup that's gonna matter. All righty, Florida defense. So they're also, I think, 39 inefficiency, opponent-adjusted efficiency. So they've done better than we realized too. All right, opponent points per game. They're 78th in the country, giving up averaging about 28 points per game, 27 points per game. opponent yards per play, about average 66. They're giving up five and a half yards per play. Defensive success rate is what always makes you feel like you're getting slaughtered, especially if you're a fan watching it, 'cause they're 100th in defensive success rate. So whatever, when teams are moving it slowly, they're able to just kind of go up and down the field. Their advantage and what they're able to do is they're stopping teams from the big play. So they're 15th in the country in defensive explosiveness. So they're not letting you, they're not letting you get the freebies, but they're also being death by a thousand cuts. Have you noticed that on tape? - Yeah, it's the big switch I talked about. So Florida was known for giving up explosives last year, particularly in the passing game. They're playing a lot more basic, a lot more simple, and their defense is dramatically improved. I mean, they played Tennessee really well on defense. And no, I thought they played Georgia well. Georgia ended up sort of breaking through late, but I think that was a consequence of the defense being out there a lot. And Georgia ran a lot of plays. So I think people see that Georgia had like 450 yards, they ran a ton of plays, and they also picked off Carson Beck a bunch, right? I mean, not that that's unique now here, but I mean, the Florida defense kept them single-handedly in that game for a while. And they're just a different defense than what you saw against Miami or even Texas A&M. They're just playing much better, much simpler. And I think it's really benefited them. And I think their offensive coordinators stopped trying to be so cute all the time with a bunch of checks and all sorts of, yeah, they're just running real basic defenses and executing. - Yeah, he had a quote where he said on defense, we don't have a toolbox, we have a tool shed. And I was like, that's great if you're a pro, you know? But, and also it's great if you're in year six, you know, if you've got save and level stability, have a tool shed, saving how to trek for everything. But it's like when you're trying to install a man saying that we've literally play every front and every coverage is actually not a winning formula. - No, you want an in and out menu, you don't want the cheesecake factory menu. - Yeah. - When you play defense, you want some old standbys that you know you can execute, then you can build out. Here's the other part, Connor. Your program's built on the portal, if you're Florida, especially. Now they recruit and they recruit pretty well, but you're building out a lot of your team with the portal. You got to have simple stuff that people can execute. And that's, I just think coaches, some of them like to sniff their own parts, man. And I think this guy's a good example. - I like him, I mean, I like what he's done, but when you read his interview, you get the young guy like buying into the, he's the Wiz kid, you know? You know, it comes along. - Connor, who knows the defensive coordinator? It's what your players can execute. - Exactly. And now he's kind of got the young guy arrogance where he's like, I'm the hot Wiz kid on the market, you know, we've got a tool shed and we run everything. And he's just young, he'll get it. So how does Quinn start fair against quarters? So what's nice about quarters is easier to scheme up in quarters, cover three for deep shots. Because in quarters, if you send all four deep, you can get quarters converts into man past 10 yards or past line record. - You can get it in your media balls. - Exactly. - Right? - So you can send guys to basically cancel out safeties, run long routes and then you can run guys under them. Or like you said, you can get, you can get advantageous deep shots in quarters. I like playing, I would like playing offensive against quarters better than I would like a cap cover three. Yeah, I think this could be a big DeAndre Moore gun or helm game. So we'll see how it comes. And this might be defensive coordinator who can't resist himself and he convinces Napier. Hey, we got to try something. Let's do something. Let's come out in, you know, a dime with three safeties deep and we blitz every play, right? I mean, something. I tell you what, after watching that Vandy film, I'd want to bring my nickel some, that's for sure. They have the number one pass rushing nickel in the league. - There you go. - So they got a, they got that. They simulate a ton of pressure. That's kind of their whole thing. And so that's where we, here I can show you guys some looks that I pull from them. So you'll see a lot of this. You'll see a lot of their three down. This is versus 12 personnel. Texas plays a lot of 12 personnel. You'll see it here, five guys on the line here. And they can drop guys out, but they're going to basically try to get us into five oh protection, man on man protection. And then beat you one on one. They'll also mug up these two James and Howard. They'll bring these linebackers up, mugged up, they'll simulate, they'll drop them out sometimes and sometimes they fire them. So what we saw versus the past couple teams, this is exactly what Florida does. They run a ton of simulated stuff. And then what they'll do is this was getting Carson back. They'll walk, say they'll walk like Pibern up here, number 44 up top their Jack linebacker. They'll mug him. And so then Quinn will check and go like, okay, well, I'm going to go hot to, let's say this top side receiver's going to run a click slam. And then they'll know that and they'll drop Pibern right into that click slam and get the interception. So they fire the nickel. They like to fire the nickel. Bandies, nickel, single handedly almost changed the game. And so Florida will like to do that as well. Then they can go to their basic kind of three down stuff. This is if they want to get kind of diamond. You see that now that Jack linebacker is now out in coverage. They can do that too if you go spread, but they'll do a ton of walked up looks. They like to pressure the quarterback and they stay in this two safety look. So they can rotate two cover three. They can do quarters. They can do cover two. They can access anything. So they're split field safety team, but that doesn't mean that they only do two high coverages. They do all the coverages. So as far as a test for Quinn to see if he's gotten sharper and less shaky in the pocket, this is a great defense to play against. This is their base look versus 12 personnel. So they'll give other options, right? Like Kentucky was in 12 personnel and they paid played three down. Well, when Georgia went into 12, they played 4-2-5. So they don't even always give you traditional kind of looks always. They change things up. They're game plan specific. And you know what's interesting too about the nickel blitz for Vandy? They're trying to stop Quinn from rolling out, but what they're really saying there is keep Quinn in the pocket. We think he's gonna wilt in the pocket. So don't let him escape it and make him stay there, make him play quarterback. So that's an indictment. What Vandy was saying is like we don't think Quinn viewers is effective from the pocket. So make him stay in the pocket. And we're gonna see if they do that with the nickel and if the simulated pressures, give them some stress. But those are kind of the looks that we're gonna see that I like to pool. So it's a real test. It's a real test for Quinn. We'll see. Paul, before we keep going, would you like to let them know about our good friend? We know a real test in your financial life, buy an house. Most important single financial decision most of us will ever make in our lives. You need the right folks in your corner or the right person in your corner singular. 'Cause there's only one call to make and it's these digits. Listen to them carefully. 832-557-1095, that's Gabe Winslow. And he is the best damn mortgage guy in the great state of Texas. He also does mortgages in other states. So if you're an out-of-stater, still give him a call and he can help you out in various ways. If not, do your mortgage. He's just happy to give you advice and give you some helping hand if you're in some random, weird state like Rhode Island. Does that state ever irritate you, Connor? - No, but you just are one Rhode Island viewer. You just really hurt, right? - I don't care. I don't think that state should exist. Anyway, Paul Gabe, really great at what he does for 20 years in industry, die hard, long horn and go read his Google reviews. Like 200 Google reviews, all five stars with paragraphs raving about the service that they got from him and how he solved some complex problem with the last second. 832-557-1095. - Gabe Winslow. Thank you, Bill. And what's up, Jacob Hookham. All right, you're saying something. I cut you off right before we did the address. - I was going to say one thing that's kind of weird about Morda defensively, it's their size. Did you want to talk about that a little bit? - Dude, I don't have a marked here because I was busy doing something, but have you seen Desmond Watson, man? - Yeah, I mean, they have 450-pound defensive tackle. - 450 pounds. And of course, guess what? He's pretty good in the run game 'cause he's a literal boulder. - He is and he isn't. Here's the deal. You could run by him and around him. - Right. - As far as he's supposed to control the space he's in, he can do that 'cause you can't move him, but you can see him and clearly get out of the way. So with modern defense and modern officers running a lot of zone stuff and zone concepts, I don't like a guy that immobile. I don't like that pole, like, I'm just an immobile rock and you can't move me. It's like, great, we'll run around you. Like, have you seen them try to slant? - Yeah, it's like, it's pretty tough, man. Also, man, like, there's being a note, that's not healthy for you, man. Being 450 is not good, man. - No, people have tried to lazily comp him to like, "Tavondre Sweat" is a next level athlete for his son. - And he's still 100 pounds less than-- - Well, he's also, Tavondre Sweat's really agile for his son. I mean, he is mobile and agile and he moves his feet. This guy, you know, he gets, he gets tired and big men don't respond well to that in terms of their effort level. - Yeah, he's with that. - Jack Weinbacher, you mentioned? - I've learned. - Yeah. - He's very big and physical. So he's not the, he's not the lanky pass rusher kind of guy. He's about 270, he's a power pass rusher. - He's also trying to break your like counter schemes and like shove people into your, into your mans schemes. He's a tough player. - Yeah, in general, globally, Florida's really big up front. - Yeah. - Unfortunately, I didn't fill out their size things, but I would tell you that, I mean, this is an SEC team. I mean, they got it. They got athletes and they got size. And they rotate like crazy, dude. - They do because of their size 'cause I don't think they're super fit. And, you know, there is a game where we're gonna do this and then we're not gonna do it. This would be a defense you'd play tempo against. And this is also a defense that if you know that they've got a defensive coordinator, who's always trying to make checks and calls and trying to be engaged in the defense like Austin Armstrong is, that's also another reason to go tempo. Because if you can get a predictable coverage like quarters and you get Quinn kind of in rhythm throwing the ball, you can have those drives that we've all seen with Quinn Eurs where it's eight consecutive passes and he goes eight of eight for 77 yards and it's a touchdown, right? And it's all in rhythm and it's all fast and you're not allowing subbing. There's no pass rush because the guys get tired. - Dude, if you can trap Desmond Watson out there, I mean, you know, that's, I mean, so they've got real size, I mean, it's SEC team but there's always a trade-off, right? - I think they have too much size is my point. - Yeah, and they could. Yeah, there's, when you have a 450 pound nose attack, it's like there's no value there, man. That's, there's a, it's what, it was therefore with your logic, 700 pounds is better. Like we should get the, recruit the guys off the TLC show. - Yeah, and if you're looking at the numbers up here in column G on the spreadsheet, that's the number of snaps they've played, right? - Yep. - Yeah, that's not their weight. - Yep. - Yeah. So they have, they rotate a lot. That's a big thing. So like game plan wise and it's frustrating when you're doing breakdowns too, so it has to be frustrating for the coaches. How much they rotate, they don't have like dudes where you're like, this guy's always gonna be in this situation and stuff. They're constantly rotating. So you end up having to like go two or three deep on almost all positions, especially on the lines, 'cause they're rotating all the time. So that's when you have to be aware of as a quarterback 'cause you don't, you might be able to pick on this guy, but you can't pick on this guy and blah, blah, blah. - Yeah, when you watch them too on defense, I don't find the guy, you know, typically you'll, I've scout teams just like you do and you're like, oh, okay, that's a guy. - Yeah. - You really find that guy on Florida and doesn't mean they suck. Just means they have a lot of above average guys and they just rotate them all around and sort of play an aggregate game rather than, you know, this is our, these are our two or three stars that you gotta watch. - Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's, yeah, I agree with that. Like Tyree's SAP, I think he has four sacks, which is great, but if you look at his win percentages, he's winning 10% of the time. - Yeah, he's kind of, he's Feaster Famine. - Yep, and they have a couple guys like that. So it's like, they don't have like, especially on the line, there's not like any like scary, like this guy's the freak, but like they have a high floor. And so they're bringing in a lot of guys and they're gonna be fresh, that matters too, right? And it's a steep play. So, and then they, and then they change it up, right? So they, they play three down, they play four down. So you'll see them when they, they're in their base with their Sam or you'll see them in their four, two, five. So they have options. The thing is that for a quarterback, this is a stressful defense, 'cause they're multiple, which is just this dumb coaching where it's caught on to mean they play three or four down. But they play three or four down. They have a, so that you gotta deal with, right? And then on top of that, then they can go into their personnel where they have the nickel in there. So you gotta be aware of that. And then on their edges, they're constantly rotating guys. So you have to be aware of who's in. So they do overload you mentally with a lot of stuff. And Austin Armstrong, if he's able to do what he wants to do, he's constantly gonna blend coverages. He's gonna do a lot of weird stuff too. So at maximum, like this is a lot mentally to put on a quarterback, the Florida defense. They're not executing it at that level, but if you steel man this defense, that would be a very confusing defense to face. Yep. Luckily they're not able to execute that at a high level yet. So rushing, opponent yards per rush, 60 second, a little bit above average. Bad rush success rate though. So teams 40% of the time, 47% of the time are moving forward on them, but they don't let you get the explosive run. Which for Texas doesn't matter 'cause we do not hit those. No, we don't. So average on defensive rushing power success rate. So third and shorts or whatever about, you know, 72% of the time you're gonna get your first down. Now let's look at the secondary. So I swear to like they got cursed versus the Georgia game 'cause they just started dropping one after the other. Like Marshall went out, I think, versus Kentucky or Tennessee. I'll be able to look at my notes. But then they had both corners go down. One of which was the third string corner replacing him, went down. Then they had the nickel, Denson went down. He came back though. And the safety castel went down. But within like four plays of each other, it was absolutely insane. Castel came back, Denson came back. We're still not sure. Jason Marshall's out for the season. That was their top corner. Devin Moore was on crutches to end the game. And third string corner, Dijon Johnson also went out. So we don't know right now unless something changed at the last second if they're gonna be down to their fourth string corners. That's wild. Dude, it was weird. They also have a second string nickel, Aaron Gates. That's my favorite secondary player, is Aaron Gates. So I don't know why he's not always out there. I think he's a good player. But they ended up having to move tricoise bridges, the safety, they ended up having to move him to corner in that game it got so bad. And I think he was a corner at Oregon. But he wanted to play safety. So that's the big thing, right? Can we test that secondary because they got absolutely decimated versus Georgia. And so we want to see if we can, in theory, this is not that great of a passing defense. On top of that, they're injured. So there's really no lack of excuse here why we can't complete some. Do some work in the passing game, do you agree? - Agreed. - I will be interested to see if they go cover three a lot because that's what teams have done to us. Georgia did and Evanderbelt did. So I know they play a lot of quarters, but I don't know if Austin Armstrong can help himself. Seeing the match three stuff and not trying to go into it. - Yeah, and if you're down at corner, like, you're not gonna, you're not gonna go cover one in blitz. You're not gonna go zero and bring the house. I mean, I would play a match and I would, but honestly, dude, I might play spot drop cover three. If I'm down to my fourth corners, like I'm like, everyone get back. And then look at the ball in front of you and tackle and, like, gets penalties and does stupid stuff. - Yeah. But overall, 39th ranked defense. Like a 500 team, you would not expect both offense and defense are top 40. - Yeah. Again, for the reasons aforementioned, both at quarterback and also in their secondary, I'm not sure that that's the defense and offense we're gonna actually play against, so. - Yeah, this team is not fun to handicap 'cause they have fundamental changes that have occurred on both sides of the ball. All right. They're whatever in red zone. They're middle of the pack. Middle in the pack and third down. Really bad on early downs, which is important for Texas 'cause we get in too many third and long situations. So we need to be able to be effective early downs. Team talent, 12th ranked team in the country, not surprising, right? Now their recruiting sucks this year. And this is why people actually want to fire Napiers 'cause it was lack of recruiting success. But team talent, they're still solid. - Where are all the Florida recruits going? Because Florida State, they're recruiting. - I was trying to think, Miami? - Miami and Georgia? - But that's like too recent. Miami's success is just this year. I mean, they must just be getting rated out of state, like, you know, Texas back in the '90s, you know, when like the top 10 players in Texas, nine of them would sign and like, Michigan and Miami and UCLA. - What's interesting, they're 18th in the country and intercepts and it's just per game. So they blend the coverages really well. They simulate pressures really well and drop back. And man, they were given back hell. But this is a big thing for Quinn, right? Can you not get rattled on the simulated pressures and then try to force a ball? This is just an important game for Quinn. It just is versus this style of defense. So this will be a good proxy for me to understand kind of where Quinn's at after looking at this team, even though they're injured in the secondary now, but schematically, they've done a good job on forcing quarterbacks to make mistakes. And then they're also pretty good, man. 11th on special teams. - That's wild because they were idiots. They were blundering fools in special teams last year. They're the team that got the penalty 'cause they had two players with the same number. - Yeah. - On the field, like stuff like that. So that's-- - And they're the field goal that they totally, that's why they lost the Georgia game, whereas like right on the cusp and then they just totally blew it. - Yeah. - But they're still doing pretty good. And then penalties for game 39th. Here's the reality. I'm a letting Napier have one more year 'cause I've seen this team trend up. Now I get the recruiting side. I would need to actually study that more 'cause that is more concerning. But this team is trended up. Most importantly, man, they're not playing lazy. They're playing intense. They're playing aggressive. This is not a team that's quit on their coach. And then they got-- - Got everything. - Yeah. And then Lagway gets hurt. It's just you can't really do the eval here. I give him one more year because like the other things like their special teams are good. They're top 40 in both the efficiency metrics. They just play a brutal, absolutely brutal schedule. And then they've dealt with injury at the quarterback position. I don't think you can eval him properly on the field. Now if there's off the field issues, then I'm not aware of those. I'm not in Florida's camp. Are you firing them, Paul? Hiring, firing? What are you doing? - You can don't, you fire them if you have a guy lined up. - Yeah, yeah. Yeah. - Yeah, you gotta upgrade lined up, you fire them. But if you don't, you gotta roll back. You can't just fire them and then try to figure it out on the fly. - And also I heard too that like their support staff is like one of the best in the nation, if not best in the nation. So that's like held them back that he's like made some really strong hires off the field hires too. So I don't know. Who do you think it would be, Kiffin? - Yeah. Kiffin knows Ole Miss is, this was a peak year, so. - Yeah, but also man, they did what they were supposed to do for Kiffin. I mean, they went and bought him the players. They, I mean, it wasn't that Ole Miss was like lacking. Like they stepped up to the plate on a lot of stuff. - They did. I just don't know if they can do that every year. - Yeah. But that's my thing too. If like Kiffin's like, Kiffin, they give you every shot. You know, they give you every chance there. Now you lost, you're running back and stuff like that. But that's on coaching at that point. I don't think Ole Miss, they didn't lack this year. You're right. Can they sustain it? Probably not, but. - I mean, Florida's a better job. - Oh, yeah. - Yeah. (laughs) - Yeah. - I mean, I'm like in all right. - Yeah. - I'm just saying, if you're a coach and you can choose between Ole Miss and Florida, you take Florida. - That'll be hilarious. Yeah. - I would love to see the argument of, no, Ole Miss is a better program in Florida. - You do that. - And we're like, we're winning more. It's like that's not how it works. - People do recency bias nonsense all the time, right? And you know, like you'll read people saying, you know, oh gosh, now this means that Ole Miss is a better job than LSU, it's like, no. - That's not how it works, guys. - Not how it works. - Well, they don't understand like potential energy. - Yeah. - You know, it's like it's, dude, it's their ceiling. It's not what they've been doing right now. It's like whenever they're maxed out, which one's better than it's Florida. That's frustrating if you're like a Penn State fan, because you've got everything that is a big program, but you're in the shadow of Ohio State and you can't beat them. So is it that you don't have the right coach? Like is James Franklin maximizing there? Or if you get rid of Franklin and you're like, we gotta beat Ohio State, this is ridiculous. We're Penn State, we got 110,000 people in our stadium and like we're the school here. - What does that sound like? Like in the shadow of like the big Colossus and like we gotta get the coach and they're like, but our fans are so good, our environment is so good. - Right. - So you gotta wonder, like, sometimes you just gotta know your role and you're like, what were the 15th best program that we don't have any upside beyond that? - I mean, the media and like, I mean, they try for Penn State every year. I mean, it's like, I can't think of the last year that it wasn't Penn State's year to break out. You know, there appears to be a cap there, right? - Well, the funny thing is they're gonna go to 11 and one and people are gonna be like, yeah, they were a disappointment. - Yeah, it's, but also the big 10 is weird this year. They're kind of dealing with the typical SEC problems. A little top heavy. So overall, probability Texas wins this game is 78%. - I would put that higher. - Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I don't even know how you factor in DJ Lagway being out now, right? - Yeah, I don't know how in the number you're like, and there's a third string quarterback in that. - I'm honestly struggling to know how they can score unless we throw pick sixes. - It would have to be offensive meltdown. I mean, then it'd have to be the kind of like what Beck was trying to do. - If Florida scores in the 20s, something went terribly wrong. - Yeah. Florida play calling real quick, about 60% 11 personnel. They like to target the slot the most and about half the time they're dealing with middle field closed. So one high defenses. - We got some intel on their recruiting from the chat. That was helpful. - Where we got. - Florida schools currently have three of the top 10 recruits in the state. All the rest are out of state to SEC teams in Oregon. - And Oregon, of course. - Oregon, that natural Florida to Oregon connection. - Yeah, that natural connection. Dude, Oregon though, those jerseys play, dude. I was talking to a quandary digs about it. He's like, man, when I was growing up, it was all because my age, like me and quandary's age, Oregon was the cool school, man. And like, just having cool jerseys has a profound effect. And then also Nike boosting your coffers is also helping out. - Yeah, old school, I'm Mr. like, never change our jerseys. We like, this is classic. And there's a handful of schools that can get away with that. Texas is one of them. But the truth is having cool jerseys is like a bigger deal than you'd ever, it works. And it's like, for high school players, Connor, if you read Meat Market, the Ed Ojaran book, when he was a little miss that Bruce Feldman did, like they didn't get a recruit they wanted because they couldn't assure the guy that he was gonna get his number, his stuff matters. That's why you'll hear like, you know, CDC is always like, why would we mess with perfection? And you hear, there's just a huge disconnect between the older parts of the fan base and the younger parts of the fan base there. And the funny part is I'm like aging into the tradition side now. If you would have talked to me 10 years ago, I'd have been like, guys, cool jerseys are cool. Like there are marketing types. Yeah, they're a marketing tool, you know? And then now I'm getting older and like grumpier, you know? And I'm like, no, the long-worn jerseys, it's just funny. I see that disconnect now and I'm kind of like right in the middle, I can hop to either side of the fence on there. Oh, those black Aggie jerseys with the script Aggie Rock. They're, here, look, if you don't, I think if you don't have tradition, especially man lean on that. Like if I'm TCU, I'm throwing out jerseys all the time. If I'm Oregon and I have Nike designers everywhere, absolutely, you know? So like if you're Michigan, Texas, I can see you kind of being like, whatever. But if you don't have like, quote unquote, real tradition to lean on, then man, make cool stuff. It's a marketing tool. Well, and the funny thing is when you can marry the two. Army and Navy. Yeah. So Army, as traditional as it gets, right? Yeah. What? They're very open, but because they have that out of the military, they're like, we're honoring the Rangers this week and they have some crazy, awesome looking uniform combo. So watch Army, did you see them against Air Force? They have these cool helmets that were like skull and crossbones. They were honoring this one particular unit. And they do like amazing stuff, but it's also this incredibly traditional school and uniform and, you know, for their non-games where they just keep it straight. So yeah, that's where you want to meld the two of tradition and just having crazy stuff, but they can get away with it just like Navy because you're honoring a specific unit or branch to the service, right? Yeah. Yeah, it's funny. I love it. On Twitter, it never fails. Somebody like in pre-season always is like, should Texas have black jerseys? And then half the fan base starts eating itself. It's always good engagement. Just ask about jerseys on Twitter and you're going to get replies. Well, interestingly, basketball UT fans are more open-minded. And they're like, yeah, we can wear black jerseys or we can wear gray jerseys or whatever, right? I think it's because you play so many games that like you need a little variation. There's just something about it. I don't know why. Maybe you can see the players faces in basketball. Like it's more... I don't know. I don't know. I don't understand. But here's the other thing. If we had really weird jerseys in baseball, everyone would freak out in baseball, so. Yeah. I also think basketball fans are a little bit hipper. Baseball are generally, baseball can have some cool stuff. Like baseball, like people respect like cream jerseys and stuff like that. They also have like an older contingent of baseball fans that are much more traditionalist. It's... The Jersey Warriors are always good engagement. That's right. Let's get out of here quick, but let's talk opponent games of interest. We're not going to play Tennessee, but them winning out does have an effect on the playoff or the championship race. So that's why we're mentioning them. So Georgia versus Ole Miss. So here's how... Here's the easiest way the Texas gets in the SEC championship with a three-way tie. Texas wins out. If Texas, Georgia and LSU win out, everyone has one loss. And at that point, it's a three-way tie rule, meaning that you cannot say that Texas beat A&M and LSU loss therefore you're in because Georgia doesn't play A&M. Yeah, I've heard people a lot of times miss incorrectly understand this. So what you have to do there, it was you would go to a common opponent win rate, aka who has the stronger schedule. Texas has the weakest schedule. So it would be Georgia and LSU. Yep, but what we need to do is Texas has to win out in either Georgia or LSU lose. And if either one of them lose, we're good. Luckily, Georgia is going to play Ole Miss and they're going to play Tennessee. So this will be a self-correcting issue between Georgia and Tennessee. And then LSU has got to play Bama. I feel like Bama's their last real shot to lose. I can't remember what the rest of the LSU schedule is. I can pull it up and you can. But I feel like Bama's definitely their best shot. So they got to play for you. LSU has Florida, Vandy and OU. Okay, so Vandy, you never know. That's a pretty good team. But this week we have Georgia at Ole Miss, which, you know, Georgia is only a two and a half point favorite. And then, so let's talk about them first. Kind of what are you thinking with Georgia and Ole Miss admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Ole Miss this year. Dude, I, so Ole Miss is actually struggled on offense until they went to Arkansas and just detonated them in Little Rock, or pardon me, in Fayetteville. I think the interesting thing about this game is Ole Miss's defense has been good all year. They have not had it off week. And so that's intriguing to me with Carson Beck in sort of self-destruction mode. And it's obviously going to be a huge home game. The thing that weighs against this Connor, Lane Kiffin hasn't won any of these games. He's really big back against the wall statement games. And when Georgia played Ole Miss last year, it was like 51-14, and they just destroyed them. So I attempted to take the underdog at home here and get the points. This was three and a half earlier in the week, and I actually bet that on Ole Miss, but it was a small bet. So I don't know, man, what Carson Beck, are we going to see? I mean, that dude is, he is throwing his team away every week, and Georgia's still managing to win. Well, it seems like he's been regressing to the mean so heavily that he's going to naturally have to have a good game again. This is where he goes five touchdowns, no interceptions. Yeah, because he's playing so bad. It's like he's not that bad of a quarterback. Clearly not what we thought, but to me, it's like sooner or later, he's going to not throw three interceptions. Yeah, I think it's going to be a terrific game, and I got to think the defenses are going to dominate it. How many times has Ole Miss in these big games been only two and a half point dogs, though? Have they been that close in the Bama's, Georgia's, and those kind of games? Yeah, honestly, every year, there's kind of a buildup of like, oh, this is different than it is different. And then it is indifferent. You saw that last year with Bama? Yeah, but ideally, I mean, we're rooting against LSU or Georgia. I think the fans most would like to get rid of LSU, so you can rematch Georgia. I don't know how wise that is, but I think that's kind of the fan sentiment that they want to replay, Georgia. All right, let's move on to the next one. Alabama, LSU. Bama is actually the three-point favorite versus LSU. Yeah, this is a function of matchups. LSU's defense can't handle dual-threat quarterbacks. And Kalen DeBore understands that this game is existential. He needs to win. He needs to win this game bad, and Jalen Mill Rose is going to be a big problem for them. Conversely, Alabama's secondary, a secret weakness. They're young back there. They bust coverages. That's going to be dangerous against LSU and Garrett Nussmeyer. So I think there's going to be some offense. There's going to be some fireworks in this game. It's going to be fun. But ultimately, I don't know that LSU can stop a dual-threat quarterback. Dude, the dumb stuff I hear about Kalen DeBore is cracking me up, dude. Like they're like, man, he wears tee shirts on the sidelines. And just like the dumbest fan stuff ever. You have to wear a collared shirt. Yeah, it's just like, dude, when you're losing, it is hilarious. Like how dumb fans are. And he's a great coach, guys. He's going to get it built back up. This is what year one looks like in a crazy SEC. But like the stuff fans are saying. I mean, you remember Paul, the argument when Texas was struggling was always dumb. Texas has culture issues, and Alabama doesn't ever have to deal with stuff like this. And one of my points were like, let them lose a couple games. They've been 10 win team for a decade. I bet you're going to start seeing weird fan base pop up. And then sure enough, weird fan base starts popping up. Also, by the way, Connor, beyond the fan base, this whole Alabama culture stuff, there's a lot of footage of the height of the Nick Saban era with Alabama players taking swings at coaches on the sideline. Like, and also there was a lot of, let's say, discipline issues that didn't necessarily make it to the media. It somehow got suppressed. I mean, that's the beauty of a hometown compliant press corps. But I want to be in a small town. And it just didn't fit the narrative of Alabama. So it just didn't get covered. Or it was sold as like, well, that's intensity. And it's like, hey, man, if you're losing, that's a discipline issue. Right? Exactly. And it's, but also just the crimson tide for that local economy. You don't want to, you don't want to go after the Golden Goose there. But it is funny how you hear that they are basically just like a bunch of church mice. And that's just not how Alabama was in their heyday. Agreed. All right. So fans, I think generally want LSU to lose this game. It would make it a lot easier for Texas. It would give us a very clear Georgia versus Texas matchup if we went out. I mean, Georgia wins out, right? Georgia wins. And Alabama to win, right? There is no other argument. So I would, well, either one, right? So yeah, but if it's both, why do you want to play Georgia again? I'm not, I'm not saying I want to play Georgia again. I don't think that's necessarily wise. But I'm saying like the clearest we know next, are we know this Saturday, who's in the game? If they went out would be LSU or Georgia loses. But both of them losing. Now you're kind of like, well, who's it going to be? Because then if Georgia loses Tennessee that next week, then it's Texas versus Tennessee in the SEC Championship. It just gets more muddy. Yeah, it just gets more muddy is what I'm saying. The clearest picture here is either one of them lose, and then we kind of know it. And also that point too, right? Like SARC's able to game plan for a couple of weeks. Like you're able to get your analysts on it a little bit more concrete. All right. Miss Mississippi State at Tennessee. Looking like Tennessee is a favorite here by only 24 points. Yeah, what are they? I think Nico had a better game. Tennessee man, Tennessee's the was the most overhyped coming into the year for me. I mean, they thought it was just going to be elite offense. And that just hasn't been the case. Well, they've said this, right? Texas gets this wrap of being elite explosive offense. That's just not true. Texas is not that explosive. Ole Miss, same thing, Tennessee. All three of those teams are actually defensive teams this year. Ole Miss, this defense is explosive on offense, but it only shows up against average to bad teams. I was going to say that's, yeah, I'm not counting that. Yeah, look, this line is going to go against Tennessee as we get closer to game day. 24 is not going to hold. People, I think people think Mississippi State is pretty good at not getting blown out. And that's a skill. Like they hang in games and a lot of it is Van Buren. Do Mississippi State's going to be a fun team to watch in the coming years? Because they have to find a way to compete. And they've got to be really selective and smart in going and selecting players that aren't going to be big payday guys, but they can build a team with, right? They got to go find a bunch of good G5 guys. And hey, if that hits, it works. Look at Indiana, man. Yeah, but yeah, that's the problem. And Mississippi State basically what Paul said is you're going to have to actually coach. And that's trickier. We have the big gorgeous, you know, Georgia's in Texas logo and win games. Yeah, exactly. Georgia in Texas is like, well, let's just load up on five stars. All right, that was fun. So I think this game would have been much more interesting if lagway was relevant. But who knows, Napier said he could still play. I would love to see that. But Florida, a bumper from Florida, because they were on the right trend. They were giving teams real tests there. Some real upset potential, actually. But losing lagway, of course, starts doing quarterback. We're not going to be able to sell you guys that this should be some prize fight. Yeah, I mean, we need to see the Texas offense get right in this game. No two ways about it. And then lagway is not playing. Dude, it made me laugh when Napier said that in the press conference. But also he gave himself up later in the press conference because they started asking about how quarterback reps allocations are working. And they were saying that the four string guy was getting a lot of the two reps. Yeah, they're asking about rep allocations. He's like, well, what's lagway gets out of the hospital? Yeah, exactly. So it's like he ends up giving himself away later. That's not how it works. But once they staple his hamstring back on his thigh, he'll get a bunch of reps. Yeah. So all right, fans, thanks for hanging out. That was fun. I hope you guys know more about the Florida Gators and more importantly, kind of how they relate to the Texas Longhorns. Shout out to Go Dogs. Shout out, just shout out to the Georgia fan here on Florida. Hey man, the SEC just does me more. Yeah, shout out Georgia, I guess too. Fans, we really appreciate you guys hanging out. It's always fun. I love doing the Tuesday show. Always. Hey, y'all are the best. And thanks for watching. Thanks for subscribing. Thanks for telling friends. Absolutely. Hope I'm seeing you guys tomorrow on the 930 AM show. Peace.
Texas is back in action. Let's take a look at the Florida Gators.