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10 31 24 CSU Economics Professor Stephan Weiler on the latest GDP and job openings
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Plus, buying in bulk means you can get as much or as little as you like for your next recipe or snack attack. Visit your neighborhood Sprouts Farmers Market today, where flavor fills every scoop. It is Colorado's Morning News. The economy grew at 2.8 percent annual pace last quarter, and forecasters expected the country's growth domestic product to come in at around 2.6 percent in that three month period ending in September, the latest GDP figure, down slightly from the second quarter's 3 percent growth. Yeah, and Wednesday's GDP report is marking one of the last major economic readings before the November 5th election with the monthly jobs report due out on Friday as well. Business and money editor Pat Woodard joining us says we're talking a little bit more about this. You've been really calling this the job market trifecta of what we're seeing. Let's start with what we saw yesterday, your initial thoughts on the GDP report. Well, yesterday we saw GDP going up on a year-over-year basis of 2.8 percent. That's a pretty solid number, but it was a little bit less than the 3.1 expected, and yet we also saw consumer spending jump by 3.5 percent. So there still seems to be some sort of disconnect between what the numbers are showing, which is a fairly healthy number, at least economically, and yet some sort of sentiments that people are still nervous about both inflation and rising prices. Joining us now on the KOA Comma Spirit Health Hotline, it's Colorado State University economics professor Stephen Weiler. Professor, welcome back to the program. I want to get your initial thoughts on the latest set of data that came out about GDP and growth. It was sort of steady as she goes. I mean, I'm looking not only at the 2.8 that came out yesterday relative to 3.0 in the second quarter, but pretty much since the pandemic. We've had pretty steady growth between 2.0 and 3.5 percent, and that is also reflected in the labor market. We've seen jobs growth of about sort of 200,000-ish over the course of the last two and a half years. So in that sense, things look reasonably steady, it's a sustainable growth. We also got the news in today that wage increases went up 3.9 percent versus the inflation number that I think you were talking about with Pat at 2.1 percent. So, wages are growing faster than prices, so those are the good signs, basically. What are the bad signs? Because we do still seem to see some conflicting feelings about the economy based on people worried about inflation and price increases. You're absolutely right, Pat, and I mean, economists have been sort of ringing their hands about this, but I mean, I think that part of this is that, for example, on the wages, 3.9 percent is an average. It doesn't mean that everybody, it gets 3.9 percent. If there's a distribution, some people got no wage raises, whereas it's been shown that people that are better off are getting wage increases that are much bigger than the people who aren't. And in general, if you take a look at those people supporting the Trump campaign, if you take a look at those folks, those are the folks in general who haven't done as well economically, whose wages haven't been growing as quickly, because they're largely men and largely have our people that haven't gone to college. And those are the kind of statistics that seem to tell us a lot about what people are feeling. Professor, let's pivot over to jobs here. Today's look at first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the week was 15,000 fewer than projected. But we also got some interesting numbers when it comes to the October jobs report compared to September. What are the biggest takeaways when it comes to just filling these jobs? I mean, the jobs are coming out tomorrow, right? So, we got 142,000 in August, and the forecast is basically the same for September. But this is also probably the last time we're going to get a solid number in jobs, partially because of the hurricanes, partially because of the strikes, not just Boeing, but the port strike, which we'll start playing a role. So I'm actually, I'm curious, I'm really curious to see what comes up tomorrow. I think it said it's had a week full of data, basically, and they're going to have to turn around and make a decision pretty quickly, because their meeting is on November 6th and 7th, basically next week. I don't have to tell you, Professor, Tuesday is election day. A lot of people already voted. I'm sure you've seen some of the economic policies of the candidates. One pushing tariffs, though, I understand there is a difference between a good and a bad tariff, maybe you can share a little bit of that, and then Vice President Kamala Harris talking about price gouging, thinking that that can be controlled. When you hear that as an economist, either side, or the things that are concerning about that, or things that you say are these may be workable and doable, decent policies. Political season is difficult for economists, because the reality starts getting stretched in all kinds of ways. The tariffs, most economists will tell you that tariffs are basically captured on consumers, because what happens is, yes, yes, the company that's importing the item pays its tariff, but it passes along much of those costs to the consumer. The one argument for tariffs has been the instant industry argument, where you're talking about, for example, electronic electric vehicles, EVs, and that's the growing, it's a nascent industry. It's a baby industry that needs some protection as it grows. But in general, tariffs tend to raise prices for consumers. For price gouging, we heard a lot about that during the reaching and inflation concerns. Some companies have admitted that the umbrella of overall price changes, that they made some choices on prices that I think consumers would be pretty unhappy with. I think that it's just very difficult to ascertain what is, in fact, a fair price outside of the market, basically. Colorado State University economics professor, it's Stefan Weiler. Thank you so much for your time, as always. There's only one feeling like knowing your banker personally, like growing up with a bank you can count on, like being sure what you've earned is safe, secure, and local. There's only one feeling like knowing you're supporting your community. You deserve more from a bank. You deserve an institution that stood strong for generations. of Colorado, there's only one member FDIC.