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10 21 24 Mark McKinnon `talks about his article This Race Is Kamala Harris’s to Lose
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Plus, this Visio sound bar has the simplest setup yet, so you can stream your favorite holiday playlist from iHeartRadio in minutes. Give the gift of incredible sound, or treat yourself to a serious audio upgrade. Find the Visio all-in-one sound bar at Best Buy for just $129.99, and make your holidays sound better than ever. It's going to come down to turn out that's what a well-known Republican political advisor wrote in an article for Vanity Fair magazine, Mark McKinnon. He's advised campaigns and leaders ranging from George W. Bush, John McCain, Ann Richards, and Charlie Wilson. He is also the co-founder of No Labels and co-creator of Showtime's The Circus, and one of Colorado's very own. It's Mark McKinnon. Mark, thank you so much for your time again this morning. Good morning, team. How are we doing? Doing well, doing well. Two weeks from tomorrow we'll be at election day, though it feels like we've been talking about it for well over a year now here on KOA, and when we're looking at the overall turnout and the deciding and the polls and everything that's been going into this in play, you say that this is Kamala Harris's race to lose. Why is that? Well, this is a race where I think there are very few undecided voters. Right now I think this race is going to come out to which side turns out their voters and new voters as well. So when you look at when you net that all out, I ignore the polls because polls are based on a 2020 modeling, and nobody was excited about that election. So I just throw the polls out the window, except to sort of just look at it directionally. Of course it's going to be a close race, but in a close race and a race in which I think there are very few undecideds, the key is going to be whose voters are going to turn out, right? That's a pretty obvious statement, but the question is, so whose voters are going to turn out? I answer that by looking at what I see are the gaps, the gaps, I see three gaps. One is the enthusiasm gap. Harris's voters are more enthusiastic about voting by a factor of 10 points. That's a lot. So if you have an election where you're trying to turn your voters in, one side's voters are 10 points more enthusiastic, they're more likely to show up, that's pretty simple. The other one is the gender gap. Harris has women, obviously, who are enthusiastic about supporting her. Trump has an advantage with men, but the advantage with women, again, it's like a 10-point gap by Harris. She has just more women voting for her than Trump has men voting for him. And then finally, I'll just say that the latest data that's come out, it looks like that there's an early vote gap as well. There's huge numbers in the early vote. Now traditionally, early voters and mail-in voters, like we have in Colorado, are Democrats. Republicans show up on election day, and in part because Trump told people not to trust mail-in voting, and so they listen to him and they show up on election day. So it's expected that early vote would be largely Democratic, but if those numbers are historic, which they seem to be, they're huge numbers, everybody's reporting huge early voting numbers, then they're likely to be Democratic, and then they're likely to be Harris voters. So you add that all up, and I just say, well, everybody's saying, "Well, the polling showing that Trump's going to win this now." I ignore that, and I just say, "Well, based on my experience," and I just shallow-media guy out there with an opinion, but I think there's an advantage there. But you've also advised candidates, Mark, and I want to ask you this, you understand messaging better than most when it comes to a presidential candidate or a candidate of any stripes. So with that messaging, is it hyperbolic for a candidate, whichever side to say someone is a threat to democracy, even if there's a record or words and actions that may reveal that's the case? Well, that was largely Biden's message, and the one thing that I think was smart about Harris is that she shifted off that threat to democracy, and she's done one smart thing in going after Trump, which is when you say he's a threat to democracy, that makes him bigger. That makes him really powerful, and that's kind of what his, you know, that's his super power. She's done the opposite in many ways by diminishing him and saying that he's unhinged, he's unstable, he's unprepared, he's weak. You know, and all my work working for presidential campaigns, the one thing that I know was the most important thing is the perception of your candidate as being strong. People want a strong president, that's just the most important factor that people look at, and that's why Trump has done so well. And that's why Biden was in trouble. I mean, he was seen as weak, that was largely because of age. The one thing that Harris is not as weak, you know, you may not like her, you may disagree their positions, but she is a strong black woman. And so I think that she's been smarter rather than trying to make Trump appear really big and powerful. She's done the, just the opposite by saying that he's weak, he's tired, he's lazy, you know, he's canceling, he's canceling, I fancy won't debate me. And that I think is a smarter strategy. Mark what variables, if any, political, the October surprise, natural disasters, anything like that, could those still be an impact to the election from now until November 5th? Well, that's a great question. And my point is that they're, they're, don't expect any variables now to change the equation because I think they're, listen, everything surprises us and nothing surprises us at this point, right? I mean, we've seen everything, you know, nothing, listen, listen, a comment could hit us and I just don't think it's going to, I don't think it's going to shake the equation. I think this sucker is baked. I think, as I said, I can't, if you're an undecided vote, you're probably not voting. So you're, it's all set. The cake is baked and now the question is just who's going to get out there and turn out their votes. And again, one other factor I'll just throw in is that in a lot of reporting, it's, it's made clear that a lot of the Trump turnout machine is based on volunteers, whereas the Harris machine has as many more paid workers and I'll just ask you, which, which do you think is more effective volunteer workers or people who are paid? That's a, it's a solid point that others have made as well. Probably the thing that we do worst here trying to cover this is we, we base it on how things have been in the past. We're in a new reality, but going off at a little mark, does this stunt like Trump making fries at a McDonald's and it was shut down and it was kind of more of a setup, more image? Does that help or hurt them in any way or doesn't matter? And I always think of the Dukakis image on top of the tank. There's an image of the former president wearing an apron with a fries. Does, does any of that matter anymore or are we in that new reality? Well, first of all, I think you make a great point, which is that the, you know, you have to look at things with a periscope and not a mirror. People who look at past campaigns are likely to lose. You just got to put on a new playbook. I'll disagree with you. I think the McDonald's thing is a good thing for Trump. I thought it was good. It's very down to earth. It's very sort of blue collar. I, you know, I mean, it was just kind of Trump being Trump the entertainer and, you know, listen, I don't think you can go wrong, you know, standing up at a McDonald's. Everybody loves McDonald's. In wrapping up with you, I might have asked you this before, Mark, but are we at the Reagan stage regarding the GOP for many? The, I didn't leave the GOP, of course he said the Democratic Party, the GOP left me. Are you seeing that sentiment reality, and do you find yourself kind of in that space? A hundred percent. I feel like I'm one of the survivors on the island out here. You know, I just, I, the, the Republican party today is so different than the one that attracted me to, you know, George W. Bush and John McCain, who I worked for, you know, now they're talking about tariffs for God's sake. I mean, you know, as being the answer to everything, and that's what drove me away from Democrats originally, so, you know, and, and to be, you know, cozying up the Putin and autocrats around the world. Again, John McCain will be rolling over his grave. So that's the big question is, where does the Republican party go from here, whether or not Trump's elected or he's not. Where do we go from here? But I can just tell you, there's a lot of Republicans out there and they're 20 percent of voting for Nikki Haley. And I think, I think those women are going to be, by the way, the bottom line on my, on my assessment of this election is that I do believe Harris is going to win, and she's going to win because of women, and she's going to win because of, you know, people who support Nikki Haley who are Republicans and don't like the nature of the Republican party today. So if they're going to go to Harris. His article on Vanity Fair is titled, "This race is Kamala Harris is to lose and here's why co-founder of No Labels and co-creator of Showtime's The Circus, one of Colorado's very own. It's Mark McKinnon." But there's only one feeling like knowing your banker personally, like growing up with a bank you can count on, like being sure what you've earned is safe, secure, and local. There's only one feeling like knowing you're supporting your community. You deserve more from a bank. You deserve an institution that stood strong for generations. Think of Colorado, there's only one member FDIC. I don't know if you know this, but when you don't have time to read the Washington Post, you can listen to it. Almost every article has a listening option, and right now you can become a Washington Post subscriber for just 50 cents a week. It's an incredible deal. Stay on top of what's happening by signing up at washingtonpost.com/pod that's washingtonpost.com/p-o-d. Make your holiday entertainment sound spectacular with Visios all-in-one sound bar. Now, just $129.99 at Best Buy, featuring Dolby Atmos and two built-in subwoofers. Cinema quality sound is closer than ever. Plus, this Visio sound bar has the simplest setup yet, so you can stream your favorite holiday playlist from iHeartRadio in minutes. Give the gift of incredible sound, or treat yourself to a serious audio upgrade. Find the Visio all-in-one sound bar at Best Buy for just $129.99, and make your holidays sound better than ever.