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10 17 24 Colo Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli discusses the current presidential race
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Marty, it's very, very close, as you know. All the polls were maybe three points for the vice president Harris and probably now two points and that's the popular vote, so it is tight. She was sort of a plateau after the debate which she did well with the vice former president and now it's just a closer race. What counts is the seven swing states and there, the difference between them is one or two points and frankly at that level, Poling really can't tell you who's going to win. If you watch them as I have over the past say a month, they often move back and forth. So right now there's a couple of ties, say for example, in Pennsylvania on a lot of the Poling. He's ahead in a couple of states like Arizona and Georgia and behind up in the North East area so it really is up in the air which I think why they're both at you point out working so hard. Yesterday he was with a woman group which is a women are trending toward Harris and she went on Fox News and I think at least partially it was to talk to both the Republican and some Democratic men that watch Fox News because she wanted to try and appeal to them. Well Floyd, let's dive into that a little bit there because stakes are high. These rallies and campaign events and what they're doing currently the latest like you mentioned was Harris's interview with Fox's Brett Baer. Was this a smart campaign move appearing on the network for the first time when we have just, you know, a couple days left until the November 5 election? I think there was some risk in it but as you know, it turned out to be the word I'm seeing and almost all the articles is contentious it was less an interview and more of a debate but what she was trying to do and I think she probably accomplished it is to go right into the most hostile form because you know she had gotten some criticism about not doing enough interviews and particularly with Fox News reporters. She attacked Trump pretty vigorously. She mostly held her own and as I say I think among Democrats they're interpreting this as courageous and show she's got grit and so by and large these interviews don't necessarily move many votes but I think she felt that it was important as sort of a final demonstration of her willingness to get out there and mix it up. Floyd optics obviously matter and this may be counterintuitive because the last few interviews I've seen with the vice president she's been okay. You did what I thought pretty well with Fox News it's almost like she would be better off going on places where there's going to be a little contention. It looks like she comes off better than if she's with places and locations that are going to be a little more softball. Do you see it the same way? Well I would agree with you that I thought the debate she had with Trump which was obviously contentious and that interview she gives up on her game and at least partially it's maybe that a prosecutorial instinct that she has but I agree I thought she was there are some questions as you know those were a lot of sort of good Republican talking points that Brett was using in terms of immigration in terms of difference between you and Biden comma etc and there are some of you it is extremely hard to answer. They have a said answer but it's not going to put everybody at ease because she's not going to criticize Biden for example and she still wants to say that listen I'm not him and there's going to be a new approach and we're going to try and get beyond the Trump era so it'll never satisfy everyone but I agree with you I think she may be better off in a sort of a contentious environment like that and as we get closer and closer to this they're targeting as much as possible as you know she's talking a lot to men of color because that has been it looks like and pulling a weaker spot. He was with women you noticed yesterday he tried to soften himself a little bit on abortion so they are both now sort of they've got their base in place as much as possible they're trying to get these final votes because they both know that this is neck and neck. Do you think that interview that Harris did did resonate with independent voters or do you what candidate do you think is actually resonating more with those that are currently still undecided? Well that's a good question as you know there are millions and millions I guess you would say tens and maybe hundreds of millions of dollars being spent right now and advertising and much of it is targeted in those swing states as you know in Colorado right now where we all know something about the eighth congressional district because that's the most fought over district right now and you can see the arguments that are made there are immigration, abortion these are the basic arguments that are out there and they're trying as much as possible to appeal to these independent voters. I think she feels that the best argument for her with them along with these basic arguments is democracy the sense that he is Trump will not play by the rules that he tried to cheat last time won't accept the result and so she talks a tremendous amount about democracy and I think he has a little bit of nostalgia in his corner I think a lot of independence feel that well there was less inflation and during his term and that's the thing that reiterates me so there's just they have a tremendous amount of advertising out about she's just like Biden and she is going to be bad for the economy. You know when he was in Denver he talked all about former president Trump immigration it was the overwhelming case he made he had a nice platform there he's not going to win Colorado but he used it as a great national issue immigration really as you know when he came down that elevator way back in 2015 2015 that was the issue that day it is still the issue if it if he wins with it that'll be the one issue that that did it and if he doesn't it'll show that he it sort of played out at some point but it's definitely his issue. Final question Floyd this is right in your wheelhouse when it comes to data polls and numbers it's baked into the cake that Donald Trump has that 45 percent base not going anywhere at this point when you talk about the independence are we seeing people voting for Trump or if they're not it's basically not necessarily an endorsement of Kamala Harris but voting against her is that where we're at at this point where I'm not favorable one but I dislike this other candidate and couldn't go the other way as well I'm voting for this person not because I love him but because I dislike the other one more. Well there is a tremendous amount of that not only among these final independence but among even the base it's called negative partisanship and it's developed really in the last a couple of decades and it's now probably more than half the base voters saying them well one of the main reasons I'm voting for my candidate is because I really don't want the other one in power I don't want the other team in power I don't want their policies in power and which is why so much advertising is really negative as matter of fact you would say after a few original initial ads when a candidate comes out it is mostly negative and that is why because the negative vote is dominating right now in the country you ask people for the most part how compare us to 10 years ago and most people feel well things have gone downhill and that's because there's so much being said about that the government's not working the economy's not working you know the the culture's not working very well and so consequently everything about this is negative so many people tell me Floyd I am so sick of polls I want this election to be over because it is so relentlessly negative political analyst and pollster it's Floyd Cerulee but there's only one feeling like knowing your banker personally like growing up with a bank you can count on like being sure what you've earned is safe secure and local there's only one feeling like knowing you're supporting your community you deserve more from a bank you deserve an institution that stood strong for generations Bank of Colorado there's only one member FDIC