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10 16 24 Bankrate's Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick on impact of the election
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Finding the right news podcast can feel like dating. It seems promising until you start listening. When you hit play on post reports, you'll get fascinating conversations and sometimes a little fun, too. I'm Martine Powers. And I'm Alahay Azadi. Martine and I are the hosts of post reports. The show comes out every weekday from the Washington Post. You can follow and listen to post reports wherever you get your podcasts. It'll be a match, I promise. 32 years later in the famous political catch phrase, it's the economy stupid, still rings true with voters. Those words uttered by Democratic strategist James Carville in 1992 during the Clinton campaign, a new data asking Americans about their top issue shows again, it is the economy, but we won't call you stupid. Joining us now to talk about it on the KOA common spirit health hotline, senior economic analyst for Bankrate, it's Mark Hamrick. Mark, welcome back to Colorado's Morning News. Our business and money editor, Pat Woodard, joins us on this discussion. So it is the economy stupid, but is there some specific mark with the economy they point to saying that's their top concern? Yeah, good to be with you, and thank you for transitioning saying, you know, essentially. And speaking of stupid, great to be with you. Yeah, this is an important question, obviously, and there are just so many issues that they're swirling in top of mind as we get ever close to the election and in many areas, voting is already begun. We're very much, as you know, centered on the economy and finances, personal finances of Bankrate. And so we want to stay in our lane in a nonpartisan way and to ask American adults, what is their top economic issue in the presidential election? And the answer turns out to be 41% of Americans say inflation is that. And some of these headlines at the baseline might not surprise you. But where I think it gets very, very interesting is where we have these distinct differences between the answers that we get from people identify as either Republican or Democrat. And so 28% rather low number of Democrats say inflation is the top issue, but that still is the top one for them, relative to 56% of Republicans. And then you go down to number two for Democrats, that would be health care costs. And then what pops up to number two for Republicans is government spending. So the other part where this really gets divided is when we ask Americans whether they think the country's on the right or the wrong track, guess what? Republicans think we're on the wrong track by a wide margin, 83% of those who say they're with the GOP versus just 27% of Democrats and 58% of Democrats believe the economy is headed in the right direction versus just 12% of Republicans. There was a Federal Reserve survey out saying that for the fourth month in a row and more Americans are concerned, they won't be able to make the minimum credit card payment every month. That does seem to indicate that despite what the economy is doing, Americans are still pretty uneasy about where the economy is generally. Well, I think it's important to differentiate between some Americans and all Americans. And this economy has been one, even going back to the early days of the pandemic, where we've had essentially those who are wealthier and have higher incomes doing relatively fine. And those who don't have those aspects of their personal finances have lower income, lower wealth, or even in the middle category, are struggling more. And so, as of the last year, you're hearing more and more situations and uncaided by, for example, CEOs of luxury retailers that even the luxury customer is being a little more judicious with their spending. So I wouldn't want to sort of tar and feather the entire group of consumers with this delinquency concern, but there is no doubt that those who are at the lower end of the income and wealth spectrum are, and have been, relying on credit more. We think that because interest rates are beginning to fall, that if we get out maybe three to six months, this should be less so, but it's entirely, entirely dependent on the job market holding up. And lately, we've still been able to keep the unemployment rate in the low 4% round. The low market really seems like voters are voting with their pocketbooks in a sense, which is really nothing new when they're looking at these issues like inflation and the economy and health care. But what candidates in this poll show that Americans think, "Well, they'll do better when it comes to my personal finances." Yeah. So for President Trump, a whole delete of an average of about four points over Vice President Harris on the three questions that we ask personal finances, economy, and inflation. The narrowest division was inflation, where it was a three-point difference. But I think it's also instructive here that, for example, let's just stick on the personal finances question of that, where 42% say it would be for President Trump, 38% say it would be Vice President Harris, so that's a four-point difference. 12% say neither, and 9% say don't know. And so that is kind of the case with all three of these questions that we asked. And in that case, you've got a total of 21% who don't gravitate to either. It's there that I think either, I don't know that too many voters are persuadable to change from one candidate to the other, but some may be persuadable to go to one of the other from the neither or don't know, but I think that could be where this election is won or lost could be. Final question, Mark. You mentioned about staying in your lane. I'm in a reference to using that when it comes to voters and their economics. A lot of it does follow the politics. Is there data that goes back even 15, 20 years to show? Even if the issues in each economic cycle may be different, do they usually have a tend to look at the economic piece of things through their political lens than more the data lens that you're trying to reveal here? I'm going to have to give you a hunch answer rather than a data-based answer that simply because we've only in the last six to eight years been polling on political questions of bank rates since I joined the organization 12 years ago. But I think if we sort of just look out across the landscape and see, for example, how the business of government is run among elected officials, it's very hard to find the center. In other words, we did have a bit of a center during the worst days of COVID where bipartisan legislation was passed. And I'm not giving up on that hope. It's my hope that that does somehow return. But I think that given the division that we have in our country and also the way that information is now sort of a parceled out misinformation and disinformation, the people are sort of not abiding by what used to be a maxim of your title, to your opinion, but you're not entitled to your own facts. Many people are choosing to go with their own quote unquote facts, and that seems to give them a way to make some decisions that I don't think would have necessarily predominated as it would have in the past. The survey titled 41 percent of Americans say inflation is their top economic issue for the 2024 election. With more on this, it's senior economic analyst for Bankrate, Mark Hamrick. There's only one feeling like knowing your banker personally, like growing up with a bank you can count on, like being sure what you've earned is safe, secure, and local. There's only one feeling like knowing you're supporting your community. 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