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10 08 24 Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch on remembrance of October 7th Israel attacks
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Washington Post.com/bf24 It's beginning to sound a lot like the holidays. The Roku Channel, your home for free and premium TV, is giving you access to holiday music and genre-based stations from iHeart all for free. Find the soundtrack of the season with channels like iHeartChristmas and North Pole Radio. The Roku Channel is available on all Roku devices, web, Amazon Fire TV, Google TV, Samsung TVs and the Roku mobile app on iOS and Android devices. So stream what you love and turn up the cheer with iHeartRadio on the Roku Channel. Happy streaming! Yesterday marking one year since the brutal Hamas attack on Israel were more than 1100 people were killed. Many at a music festival, hundreds of hostages were taken as well. Some of those hostages still being held by Hamas and are being used as bargaining chips for ceasefire calls. However, tensions in the region still rising with Israel expanding its efforts beyond the Gaza Strip. Joining us now on the Kway Common Spirit Health Hotline to talk more about the current state of the Middle East, it's Pentagon reporter for foreign policy. It's Jack Dech. Jack, thank you so much for your time. As always, looking back at this now one year later. I mean, just the process of what we've gone through, the attacks that we've seen, the hostages that are still hostages. Where do we stand at all when it comes to any possible ceasefire talks going forward? Well, it seems like they're dead in the water from now. Netanyahu pledging in his anniversary speech to continue the fight. And that's really what it looks like Israel's medium-term future will be with this incursion in Lebanon. Israel overnight and into the morning, pounding Lebanon with more airstrikes, launching an incursion from the Southwest, heads the line. It's just they've been able to repel that, but we'll see the devil will be in the details. Still, it certainly looks like these attacks and this fighting will continue, especially after, of course, the Iranians getting involved with another ballistic missile attack in the past week. The Israelis vowing to respond. The White House wanted to keep a lid on that, but obviously the Israelis feel they have escalation dominance. They want to continue this fight and really realign the security architecture in the region. They feel was broken on October 7th. Jack, are we any closer to an incursion for Israel into Iran at this point? It doesn't seem like there would be any incursion into Iran in terms of boots on the ground by the Israelis. What they're looking at are options in terms of probably a long-range missile strike. There's dispute between, of course, Netanyahu and Biden and the Biden administration about how far to go in that, of course, Biden coming out last week, being very clear. Do not want to see Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities as part of the response. So clearly, some scoping being done on Pennsylvania Avenue to try and limit the response, limit the escalation. But, of course, the Israelis do feel like they're in a position to try and reset the regional security architecture. The question is, how far is too far when it comes to this type of response and what will actually push the Iranians to the edge? There's an article on foreign policy talking about the economic impacts that we've seen so far of the Israel and Moss War. Jack, what have we seen and could the economic pressure actually force Israel to end the fighting? What will be the end result of all this? I mean, certainly the displacement we've been seeing has been very, very significant. There isn't really a place for people to go as the Israelis have continued to push south. So we've seen just so much dislodgement and displacement within Gaza. Of course, we've seen a lot of displacement on the northern border with Lebanon, and that's only likely to increase and continue in the coming months, depending on how intense the campaign is there. So you see, of course, a lot of economic dislocations in the region. The Israelis, of course, very dependent still on American stockpiles and munitions, both the air defense munitions and offensive munitions. We've seen them employ lots of American bombs when it comes to the campaign Gaza as well as in Lebanon. So that continues to be a key point in whether a future US administration, whether a terrorist or Trump would apply pressure in that way. It would be a key decision point for either one, not likely they would take a different tact from Biden, but still could be something that would be considered in the coming months in the new administration really wants to double down and push for peace in the region. Jack, that was part of the conversation last night that Kamala Harris had on 60 minutes. She was asked about the relationship the US had with Netanyahu, and I'm kind of paraphrasing. She said the more appropriate question she was asked by Bill Whitaker is what's the relationship between Israel and the US and the fact of citizens and less than leadership, and I'm really paraphrasing it. In many ways, is that the philosophical relationship that the Pentagon has in the sense that Netanyahu is going to do his own thing, but they look at it through what we're trying to do best for the citizens and for the relationship overall, not just in the name of Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger, Marty, within the administration about sort of being left at the altar on the ceasefire deal in Lebanon. The Biden administration really thought in the weeks of the UN General Assembly in late September, it had a ceasefire deal that the Israelis were on board with in Lebanon. The Israelis then, of course, proceeded on that Friday to go and target and kill the Sun. The leader of Hezbollah, who let any sources say was on board with the ceasefire deal as well. So the US does see kind of this incendiary Israeli policy pushing the region forward and further into conflict to potentially reset their security architecture while the US has been pushing back and pushing for a ceasefire deal. But it certainly seems without American leverage on the weapons sales, without American leverage on the arms, Israel had the ability to continue to push, especially with the Iranians in disarray after their leader earlier this year and a recent election. And, of course, now has the law in disarray with their leadership all over the place. Jack, I know I'm really asking you to look into a crystal ball here and nobody really has the right answer, but I mean, we'll be still be having this conversation on the two year anniversary of the October 7 attack. It is certainly possible that we could be having this conversation. I mean, you just look at the conflict that Israel has now headed towards in Lebanon, potential for regional escalation with the Iranians, of course, involved in back and forth strikes. It will depend a lot on how Israel responds to Iran, how much pressure the White House can exert on limiting that response. But it certainly seems we're sort of in a free for all in the region right now. And there's no diplomatic pressure or leverage bringing them there to try and stop at it. And a quick follow up to that, Jack, not setting aside the merits of the protest. Does the White House do the Pentagon do they look at the protests here in the streets? We had some here in Denver, their pro Palestinian in nature. Did they look at that and does that hold any kind of sway or feel or emotion with what they do moving forward? I think it's been interesting to see the tone shift between Biden and Harris. You sort of see Harris messaging a kinder, gentler approach trying to push Israel on Palestinian rights in some way, shaping form. There is still a desire in U.S. circles and European circles for some form of a two state solution. But just in terms of the way the battlefield has moved, we're so far beyond that right now in terms of an overall whom, by all moments, the real pressure has been to try and apply the brakes on everything that's going on right now. And then you can begin to think about day two. But the latest on the current state of the Middle East, it's Pentagon reporter for foreign policy, Jack Dech. Hey guys, it is Ryan. I'm not sure if you know this about me, but I'm a bit of a fun fanatic when I can. I like to work, but I like fun too. And now I can tell you about my favorite place to have fun. Chumba Casino. They have hundreds of social casino style games to choose from with new games released each week. 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The Roku Channel is available on all Roku devices, web, Amazon Fire TV, Google TV, Samsung TVs, and the Roku mobile app on iOS and Android devices. So stream what you love and turn up the cheer with iHeartRadio on the Roku Channel. Happy streaming!