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10 02 24 CSU Political Science Prof Peter Harris discusses Iran's attack on Israel
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Shake your phone and get $50 off. Don't delay." I don't know if you know this, but when you don't have time to read the Washington Post, you can listen to it. Almost every article has a listening option. And right now, you can become a Washington Post subscriber for just 50 cents a week. It's an incredible deal. Stay on top of what's happening by signing up at WashingtonPost.com/Pod. That's Washington Post dot com slash P-O-D. It's beginning to sound a lot like the holidays. The Roku channel, your home for free and premium TV, is giving you access to holiday music and genre-based stations from iHeart all for free. Find the soundtrack of the season with channels like iHeartChristmas and North Pole Radio. The Roku channel is available on all Roku devices, web, Amazon Fire TV, Google TV, Samsung TVs, and the Roku mobile app on iOS and Android devices. So stream what you love and turn up the cheer with iHeart Radio on the Roku channel. Happy streaming! Iranian missile strikes hitting parts of Israel yesterday, serving to further highlight the rising tensions taking place in the Middle East. And fears of a growing escalation. They're founded as Israel has sworn to retaliate against Iran and have continued their attacks on neighboring Lebanon and Hezbollah fighters in that region. John with us now in the KOA Common Spirit Health Hotline, Colorado State University Political Science Professor Peter Harris. Professor, welcome back to the show. I know we're approaching that first anniversary of the Moss Tax on Israel. And we're now witnessing the battle between Israel and the proxies, their enemies. And it seems to be expanding outward. And now more direct attacks from Iran. I guess where can we go from here? And in this escalation, it seems like this is almost preordained that we knew or many people knew that this is going to happen. That's right. But it's important to remember that nothing is really preordained when it comes to international relations and politics in general. The decision makers in Iran, in Israel and elsewhere, they've got real agency here and they can make decisions and they can make things happen. The problem, I think, is that leaders on both sides have talked themselves into a corner. So Israel made it very clear to Iran that if there was an attack on Israeli soil, that Israel would respond with great force around it anyway. And in doing so, it made a similar threat to the Israelis that if you respond to this attack, we will then escalate with even greater force. And both sides have kind of talked themselves into this corner where the hands are tied and they probably feel that in order to avoid embarrassment before domestic and international audiences, they need to carry out those threats. Well, maybe they don't. Maybe they can be given away to safe face and to walk back from the brink because we really are at a very dangerous time here in the Middle East. And the war could really escalate in some pretty terrible ways. And on top of those two sides, Professor, what could this mean when it comes to U.S. involvement in all this? There's a real risk of the United States being dragged into this war. There's about 50,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region, places like Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and elsewhere. And if a general war does break out in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, the Iranians may not wait for the United States to intercede. They may decide to attack us first, in which case we would have no choice but to enter the war. Conversely, they may not do that, but President Biden may decide to order U.S. forces interaction anyway. That's why they've been pre-positioned is to deter Iran from attacking Israel and if it does, to respond militarily. That's 50,000 American lives on the line. The costs are potentially very, very high for this country. We've got a real stake in de-escalating this conflict in asking both sides to exercise restraint because 50,000 troops with the lives on the line, it doesn't get much more serious than that. Professor, I want to go back. I said pre-ordained, but as you well know that war is politics by a different means and I want to go to the politics of this because logically, Iran knows that they're not going to be able to overtake Israel. We know they want to wipe them off the map or do whatever that is. But what is the end game for Iran? Is it to continue to gin up and show, look, we're battling the great Satan, we're doing all this, so continue to support us even though we're not doing much on our end to make anything better. So their end game is what, just to continue to escalate, they're not looking for any kind of peace or two-state solution with any of this. Am I right or at least supporting those in that region with a two-state solution? Yeah, I think the Iranian regime is pretty unpopular at home in Iran. Remember, this is the kind of regime whose police officers will be living to death in the back of a van for not wearing a head covering. This is not a friendly regime and it's not a popular regime at home. So in order to have legitimacy and to maintain a grip on power at home, I think the Iranian regime needs enemies, it needs external threats. It can then tell Iranian people, well, we are defending you from the great state in the United States or from Israel. So some conflict, I think, benefits the Iranian regime domestically. It gives them some leverage at home and kind of some legitimacy at home. But they're playing a dangerous game because one thing that's also pretty unpopular is a devastating war. And if Iran were to become engaged in a full-blown war with Israel or maybe even the United States, that doesn't end well for Iran and it doesn't end well for the Iranian regime. And really, of course, it doesn't end well for anybody in the region. So I think to try and prolong a conflict with Israel and the United States and to engage in this brinksmanship with Israel and the United States, it might serve some kind of short-term political and for the Iranian regime, but it's an extremely dangerous game for them to be playing. Professor, I have one more follow-up to that because this is something I've heard many times, you and others in the realm talk about how Iran's regime within that country is extremely unpopular. I'm not saying it's easy to do, but why with the people there who dislike it, are they that fearful of it, even though they may have the numbers to overthrow the regime? Why haven't we seen an overthrow or a continuation of or a similar to like an Arab Spring? And we saw some of that when they murdered that woman in Iran the one time, but why don't we see an overthrow if the government is so unpopular? As you say, you do see a bubbling up from time to time kind of protest against the regime, and you'd see visible signs of discontent and opposition to the regime. So we do see that, but I guess it's pretty hard if you live under an authoritarian regime, which Iran is hard to organize and to mobilize and to really force out leaders like that, especially a country the size of Iran. I mean, geographically it's huge, its population is huge, the coordination problems, the opposition leaders face, they're pretty significant. So I think you do see these signs of political opposition, but it's very difficult to convert that into a political force to oust the current leaders. And I have to say, do these kind of conflicts between Iran and its enemies? They don't help because they induce something in political science, we call it the rally around the flag effect, where people, even if they really dislike or hate their current leaders, they still don't like to see that country being bombed, right? They still don't like to see that country engage in the war, but in such moments, they'll rally around the leaders that they have, even if those leaders are not the leaders that they want. We'll continue following all of this with Iran's latest attack on Israel, Scalarato State University political science professor Peter Harris. All right, we're all set for the party. I've trimmed the tree, hung the mistletoe, and paired all those weird-shaped knives and forks with the appropriate cheeses. And I plugged in the partition. The partition? It's a home cocktail maker that makes over 60 premium cocktails, plus a whole lot of seasonal favorites, too. I just got it for 50 off, so how about a clausemopolitan or a mistletoe margarita? I'm thirsty. Watch. I just pop in a capsule, choose my strength, and… Wow, it's beginning to feel more seasonal in here already. If your holiday party doesn't have a bartender, then you become the bartender. Unless you've got a Bartesian, because Bartesian crafts every cocktail perfectly, in as little as 30 seconds. And I just got it for $50 off. 'Tis the season to be… jolly-er. Add some holiday flavor to every celebration, with a sleek, sophisticated home cocktail maker, Bartesian. Pick up your phone and shake it to get $50 off any cocktail maker. Yes, you heard me. Shake your phone and get $50 off. Don't delay. I have a way to make your morning more efficient. You can get caught up on the news in about 7 minutes. That is my promise to you as the host of the 7 podcast from The Washington Post. And in that time, I will run down 7 stories, everything from the most important headlines to fascinating new information you might miss otherwise. My name's Hannah Jewell. Go follow the 7 right now, wherever you're listening. And we will get you caught up. It's beginning to sound a lot like the holidays. The Roku Channel, your home for free and premium TV, is giving you access to holiday music and genre base stations from iHeart all for free. Find the soundtrack of the season with channels like iHeartChristmas and North Pole Radio. The Roku Channel is available on all Roku devices, web, Amazon Fire TV, Google TV, Samsung TVs, and the Roku mobile app on iOS and Android devices. So stream what you love and turn up the cheer with iHeartRadio on the Roku Channel. Happy streaming!