The Duran Podcast
France wants conflict freeze. Russia said NO
All right, Alexander, let's talk about the phone call initiated by France. That's important between the French Defense Minister, Le Coronneau, and the Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Shoyngu. What was this call about? The Russian readout, okay, the Russian readout says they talked about a peace negotiation, which is interesting. They discussed French troops in Ukraine, or at least Shoyngu warned France about troops in Ukraine. The French readout says that they discussed ISIS and the terrorist attack and how they're upset with Russia, which is claiming that France might have had something to do with this. So that's what the French readout says. And the French readout says there was no talk about negotiation, specifically negotiations based on Turkey 2022, the borders from the negotiations in Turkey in 2022. France is denying all of it. What are your thoughts on the telephone? I believe the Russians here. I should say I should add that the Russian readout is borderline rude. I mean, it's one of the most if that was one of the most scathing readouts I've ever seen. I mean, it's incredibly short and stiff. And it starts by saying that Shoyngu responded to this urgent call from the French, repeated attempts by the French to call him, which in his selfies is significant, by the way. I mean, that they're barely badgering the Russians to speak to the Russians. And eventually, Shoyngu, the way the way the Russians presented is almost was dragged to the telephone to speak to Leufkornu. And the impression that the Russians give, and I'm sure this is the correct impression, is that the Russians just blew the French apart, that Shoyngu just, as I said, steamrolled over Leufkornu in this conversation. Now, why would the French call just to discuss the ISIS attack? I mean, that really doesn't make any kind of sense. I mean, the Americans have said all that needs to be said about that from the Western side. There's been an awful lot more going on. There's an investigation underway. I am sure that the French were discussing more things. Just possibly, they were probing, trying to find out what information the Russians have. But then the Russians are not going to disclose that over a telephone call, and it's stupid to think this. My take on this is that the French, who are perfectly well aware that the situation in Ukraine is falling apart, and that Ukraine is losing. And we've now had admissions about this from NATO. There's a piece by Edward Lutvak somewhere in which he says that Ukraine is about to be defeated, and the West was sent troops in it because if they don't, Ukraine is going to lose. I think the French understand that perfectly well. And I think they were trying to do two things. Firstly, they were trying to see whether they could get the Russians to ease back on French deployments in Ukraine. The Russians are given all kinds of warnings. That if the French sent troops to Ukraine, those troops will be targeted. And I think the French are nervous about that. They wanted to find out whether that was really the case. And I think they were trying to float some kind of way forward towards some kind of settlement or conflict freeze. And I suspect we've seen there's been a lot more of this going on privately and behind the scenes than we know. A couple of weeks, two weeks ago, Putin actually said, and I remember noticing it at the time, and he was talking about this in this interview with Dimitri Kiselyov, the Russian journalist. He was saying that all kinds of people are now coming to the Russians, telling them that it's time to talk about freezing the conflict. He spoke about these being dangerous people. If you remember, he said that there's no sense in having a ceasefire simply because the other side is out of ammunition. I mean, that was what Putin said. And I know, I'm increasingly coming to think that quietly, behind the scenes, the Russians have been getting these messages from Macron. And Macron is the person that Putin meant when he talked about particularly dangerous people who were trying to lure the Russians into some kind of negotiation. And as I said, sure, you just blew the whole thing apart. He said, you know, we're not interested. We're not. If you do send your troops to Ukraine, well, their targets, it's not going to turn out well for you. It was a very menacing actually thing that was said in that readout. But no different from what the Russians, by the way, have already said. And he also said, clearly, we're not interested in a freeze. If you want to talk peace, if you want to have a dialogue, we're prepared to enter into a dialogue. And we're not going back to Istanbul, if that's what your idea is, that we are prepared to take some of the things that were discussed in Istanbul as a starting point for future discussions. In other words, the Russians are not getting back, are not pulling back on anything. And I almost going to make another suggestion, which is I think that the French probably asked the Russians to keep details of this court confidential. And the Russians published their readout and Macron's court. And it's very angry about it. And that's why they've hurriedly put out their own readout and why Macron is obviously upset. So again, a good example of Macron being over complicated. He's talking about sending troops, to Ukraine. He's trying to get leverage over the Russians. He's trying to find some way to negotiate. And he's making an absolute big zero of it. He doesn't know how to do it. He doesn't know how to talk to the Russians. And all he's doing is he's feeding Russian suspicions and making the Russians more angry. Yeah, no doubt about it that this phone call was all about some sort of negotiation based on the 2022 borders, the negotiations that took place in Turkey. Because Zelensky even said that that there he hinted, he hinted at the fact that he would be open to talking 2022 borders in the interview that he gave to the Washington Post. So there's no doubt about it that they're trying to figure out a way to lure the Russians into agreeing to the Turkish deal that they once had in place two years ago. That's the problem. So I think there's no doubt about it. Macron was asked about this the other day, by the way, from reporters about the phone call. Macron said that France initiated the phone call because it had information with regards to the Moscow terrorist attack, which is just a bunch of folks. We know that that's what Macron told reporters. But here's here's my question. You can comment on on what I've just said if you also believe that it's I believe without a doubt 100% that they want to talk about mixed three 2022 borders. But my other question is, do you believe that Blinken told Macron to do this because Blinken wasn't Paris at that time? Yes, the short answer is yes. And the big question is whether Blinken has the full backing of the president and of the administration. But we've discussed this many times. The administration is worried about the election. In November, they don't want to see a military collapse in Ukraine before then. Way back last year, they were talking about there was all that. There's ideas being floated about a freezing of the conflict. Then if you remember in the late autumn, they started talking about a stalemate. The talk about freezing the conflict sort of went away. No, they understand that the conflict isn't frozen and the Russians are winning. So they're now trying to find some way to get the Russians to agree to a freeze. And they're getting the Raspberry. The Russians are saying no. They're saying no in public. They're saying no in private. And by the way, and it is not a coincidence directly after the call between Shoyu and local new. Lavrov, the foreign minister gave a lengthy interview in which he set out the Russian position very, very fully. And he said Istanbul was destroyed. The West destroyed it. So there is no going back to that. I mean, he made that crystal clear. And he said, yes, we are prepared to negotiate. But only on the basis of realities. We're not going to do things simply because the West is in trouble and wants us to get them out of trouble. I mean, that's obviously not what the Russians are going to do. So it backfired. And I completely agree with you. I mean, I think that this idea that this is not about negotiations is an absurd one. Blinken Blinken, of course, also went to Paris, as you rightly say, he gave this interview to the media to the, I think it was CBS. He said he said that there is no way, no, to the French media, sorry. He said that there is no way that the Russians are going to take Kiev. He seemed to be making it look as if Kiev is really the big issue now, which again reinforces the view that he's looking for some way to agree to settle and freeze with the Russians retaining control of the territories they had pre 2022 in eastern Ukraine. Again, as I said, I mean, it's all fantasy stuff. And by the way, coming back to Lavrov, Lavrov said that all the things that Zelensky would say was just absurd. Why would the Russians agree to this? It would be that that could result in the downfall of the Putin administration if he were to agree to something like this. I mean, you want to figure out a way to really hurt Putin's government is getting to agree to a freeze, given the realities of what we see on the front lines. Absolutely. Why would the Russians pick defeat, plucked defeat from the jaws of victory? I mean, why would they settle for something like that? If the West made a colossal miscalculation in Istanbul, two years ago, sabotaging torpedo in the Istanbul agreement, and but bear in mind that they're still talking about Ukraine joining NATO. I mean, Blinken is still talking about that eventually. So I mean, even though they talk about Istanbul, they're not really accepting all parts of Istanbul. They say, you know, Russia, you can keep what you had pre February 2022, but rest of Ukraine could still join NATO someday. Exactly what the Russians have always said is unacceptable. Why the Russians would agree to something like this is beyond understanding. I can only assume that Blinken still hasn't accepted and Macron still hasn't accepted that all the things that the Ukrainians have been telling them about, you know, the fact that the Russians have suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties lost, thousands upon thousands of tanks, all that story about, you know, Russia having been severely hurt and damaged by all of this, they still haven't accepted that all that which they're getting from the Ukrainian is simply not true. They still believe that the Russians are bleeding far worse than they really are. You know what I think the whole Ukraine NATO thing is all about? I think it's about two things. Let me throw this these theories at you. I think the first thing that the whole, you know, NATO is going to become a Ukraine is going to become a member of NATO, what Blinken said in Brussels. I think one, it's about dangling NATO to Ukraine so they can keep Ukraine fighting at least until the November elections, right? Sersky, Yermakh, Podoliak, Zielensky, don't give up. You're going to get a NATO eventually. We don't know when, but you will get in, but just keep motivated and just keep on fighting. So I think that's one reason why Blinken is talking so much about Ukraine getting into NATO. The other reason, I think this is the big one, I think that Blinken and Sullivan and all these guys, they think they're clever. And in their mind, they're saying, oh, you know what we can hold is leverage over Russia so that they can agree to a freeze? We can hold Ukraine membership in NATO. That's the big card that we have that we can hold over Russia. And I bet you the Russians are just like, we don't care, we're going to continue to do what our objectives are telling us to do. I think that's what I think they're thinking these guys, Sullivan and Blinken and these guys. I think you may very well be right. I just bet Macron thinks the same, by the way. I mean, this is the kind of overcomplicated, stupid, clever thinking that these kind of people engage in all the time. I mean, they think that they're playing some kind of four-dimensional chess. In reality, by harping on about Ukraine in NATO all the time, what they're doing is incentivizing the Russians to continue the war. Because the Russians are hearing all of this. They have learned by now not to trust the West. Putin said so. I mean, he said, I didn't trust anybody any longer. I didn't trust anybody in the West any more longer. So they're hearing all of this and they say to themselves, well, you know, what the West is trying to tell us in private is completely different from what they're saying in public. Why should we believe their assurances, every assurance they given us in the past hasn't meant anything at all. If they're playing some complicated game, that's their problem. We're not interested in their games. We're just going to go on and finish the job, which we are very effectively and successfully doing now in Ukraine. And as Putin put it, we're not going to agree to seize one simply because the other side is out of ammunition. I mean, that is just ridiculous. I mean, just a final question, a final comment, when you think about it, the West, to the United States, NATO, they have absolutely nothing to offer Russia if if they do sit down for negotiations. I mean, we'll lift the sanctions. Russia's going to say, so what, seven, seven percent growth in February. They're going to say, so what? I mean, what do they have to offer the Russians to agree to a negotiation to a 2022, sorry, to a 2022 borders? What do they have to offer Russia to agree to? Nothing. I mean, the Russians won't accept the 2022 borders. I think that has to be made absolutely clear. As far as Russia is concerned, they passed laws. They've had referendums, whereby the whole of Donbass, Hurston and Zaporogia regions are part of Russia. They're not going to withdraw back to the 2022 borders and give up all of that. The Russian constitution doesn't permit it. And, you know, people who say that the Russian constitution doesn't have any meaning in this are delusional. Again, they're not following how Russia thinks and how it behaves. And it's the intense legalism of the Putin government, which, by the way, reflects the legalism of Russian society altogether. So, I mean, there is no way that the Russians are putting back to the 2022 borders. Now, a more sensible proposal might be to concede all of the four territories to Russia. Tell the Russians Ukraine is not going to enter NATO. Not now, not ever. Come to an agreement with that. And then negotiate with the Russians. Tell the Russians we're prepared to sit down now and negotiate about your two treaties, your two draft treaties that you proposed to us in December 2021. Now, if the West did that, I think the Russians might say to themselves, some Russians might say to themselves, right? You know, we want guarantees. We want Ukrainian troops to withdraw completely from the four regions. We would probably want Russian troops stationed in some other parts of Ukraine, Odessa, whatever. I don't know, but we would nonetheless be prepared to sit down and talk about the 2021 treaty, which after all, we proposed. But of course, the West isn't remotely close to that position. But I don't see the Russians accepting anything less. And I think the sooner that is understood, you know, the better. Yeah, I would imagine that Russia would also demand the de-notification of Ukraine. Well, that's- No ban. There are streets, no ban. There are statues. Russia Russian is an official language. I mean, there's no way that Europe or the- The dissolution, the dissolution. Yeah. Exactly. The dissolution of the Azov regained the right sector. They've talked about trials for the people who were involved in all the various activities. They're not going to accept less. I think it is all but inconceivable that they will. Now, as I said, if you're going to talk about the security situation in Europe, that might be interesting. But nothing less. That's why Sullivan and Blikit, they actually think that Ukraine and NATO is their big leverage play. That's what they think. Well, absolutely. That's what's going through these guys' heads. Yeah. And I think also, they do think that, you know, offering to lift sanctions might be an incentive because I don't think they follow Russian economic news the way that we do. 7.7% GDP growth in February and growth even higher apparently in March. That's what the central bank is selling is. And the BMI figures are telling us. So, you know, why would the Russians want the sanctions lifted? Yeah. At the end of the day, the Russians, they accomplished something that I imagine 80 percent of the world would love to accomplish, which is they're out of the system and they're thriving. I mean, that's an amazing accomplishment. Absolutely. Or you can believe Reuters, which says that the Russians can't repair their refineries. They've lost 19% of their refining capacity and that they can't repair their refineries. I mean, you know, if people really want to go unbelieving that kind of nonsense, then there's really nothing one can say. I mean, it's supposed to say that that's absolutely rubbish. Yeah. It's just keep on, keep on. Yeah. Keep on with these little pin-prick attacks that knock an oil refinery damage an oil refinery every now and then. Let's have the price of gas go up and then we'll see how much Biden is going to be liking this strategy. You know, come August Store September when everyone's complaining about the price of gasoline in the United States. This is going to boomerang right back at the United States specifically at the Biden campaign. Yeah. No doubt about it. The story is more and more money for Putin, more money for Russia. Exactly. Exactly. But the whole thing is just, I mean, there are so many absurdities and, you know, flaws in the logic of this. I mean, it's pointless even spending to wasting time on it, to be honest. All right. We'll leave it there at the Durand.locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, but your Telegram rock fin and Twitter X and go to the Durand shop, get some limited edition merch. Link is in the description box down below. Take care. [Music]