Best Stocks Now with Bill Gunderson
Thursday Nov. 14, 2024 - When will our government publish a quarterly income statement?
He's been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on Market Watch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com and many other places. He's the author of the weekly Best Docs Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Docs Now app. He's President of Gunderson Capital Management. Here is Professional Money Manager, Bill Gunderson. And welcome to the Thursday. It is Thursday, the November 14 edition of the Best Docs Now show with Professional Money Manager Bill Gunderson, President of Gunderson Capital Management and Nationwide. Fee-based only, Money Management Firm and also a resource for those do-it-yourself investors out there. Well, we have a cooling loft, there's just no question that after that 1,200 point gain on the Dow, we could go yesterday, the things that had to cool off some, we hit a forward P.E. ratio of 22.1 on Friday, last Friday, that's a three-year high, so something has to give here. But then again, the market is looking ahead to a better growth going down into the Trump administration, going up during the Trump administration. We do have the Dow down 23 points right now, S&P 500 is down 9, the NASDAQ is down 49, pretty good report from Disney this morning of all stocks. The Russell 2000 is down 3 points right now. The 10-year pretty quiet today after a benign CPI report comes in, crude oil is up a little bit, it's at $69.22, gold is down a little bit, gold is down about 5% since the election is currently sitting at $25.65 and Bitcoin continues to roar, it's the biggest winner since the election. Now it's down 2,000 right now, but it's at $89,036. So welcome to today's best stocks now show with the professional money manager, Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management, I'm here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst, and you know, I mean it's pretty obvious that the market was a little bit over heated. Need to pull over to the side of the road, we used to go as a kid, you know, I remember driving to Las Vegas with my parents or to Utah with my parents, and there's a big grade they're going up by Las Vegas, and it's a climb, and it's 112 degrees outside, pretty soon the little temperature gauge on the car, remember we had an old gram-free car, and I remember pulling over to the side of the road with the hood up and steam blowing out of that radiator, and my dad cussing, right, and you know, I mean that's the way the market was last Wednesday, they reminded me of that, too much steam blowing off, got a cool down, let her cool down, pour some cool water in there, you know, and hope you haven't blown a gasket. But anyways, the market was up, just a hair, yesterday we're down a hair today, the NASDAQ is cooled off a little bit, the chip stocks are still soft, Spotify had a huge day, yesterday just a huge day, we had a nice report from Flutter, which is the big gaming stop, I thought Amazon's report on their, or their update on the autonomous vehicle in Las Vegas, hit your ride, catch your ride, hopefully they don't overheat, no, probably not, they've got those electric batteries, I did go out to dinner to a Kava last night, and there's five people in the joint, $19 for a PETA sandwich and a fountain drink for me, and it's most likely, I saw young kids with their parents debit cards and mostly what I saw, it's good, I did sell mine yesterday for a profit before I went to Kava, I liked it, I liked the growth story but I just don't know that it has the staying power that Chipotle had, it's kind of a fad right now, it's a fad stock, I've seen that happen in noodles, I've seen some pizza places that run wild for a while, salad bars run wild, it's a tough business, what was the one, the shake shack, right, and you were kind of, remember, you weren't impressed, I remember you weren't impressed, no it's a survivor, shake shack is a survivor, but all in all, you know, I've, I have found a few winners in that space over time but it's a tough industry, so try Kava for yourself, you know, the people working, they're not real brilliant, it takes a long time to get through a line of four people, you know, it's all right, whatever, but anyways, that was my take and I did sell my stock for a nice profit, I caught it at a nice time and made a nice profit in it, and we'll see, maybe we'll get back into it, okay the CPI report, the sticky part, is that what came in today or is it the PPI? Yeah, PPI today, both of them basically came in as, you know, as expected so really, you know, not a ton to write home about in terms of any surprises, you know, the producer price index is one that came out today, yesterday the tricky part, sticky part was a shelter, right, big time, yeah it was like 40% of the increase in the CPI was due to shelter and you know, those are, I mean, these are leases are sticky, they only, you know, you only really renew those every 12 months usually on average and so, you know, it's hard to get the, you know, hard to get less rent to put it that way. Well, you know, I gave my boots on the ground report of, we got a bunch of young guys working at one of the biggest apartment builders in the world is located right here in Charleston, gray star, and I said, you know, all these apartment buildings are building down here and I mean, they're building them all over the country, Texas, Arizona, but I said, you guys have built a lot down here in Charleston, are they, are they, what's the vaca, they said, well, they're about 90% occupied, 97% occupied, I said, okay, we're doing fine, and so you have a tight market and rent prices continue to go hard as you look at a chart of inflation, yes, it's come down, but it has leveled off, the last three months have been level, it's not coming down anymore, and we're still at 3% or a little over 3%, which is still some of the hottest inflation amongst all the countries in the world right now, and you know, a lot of people are betting on more inflation with the Trump administration coming on, using the tariffs, the tariffs is a reason to do that, which would be inflationary, obviously, if you're paying, you know, look, if you want to add avocado to your, to your pita, that's another like 250 or something like that for a couple of them now, imagine if we're not getting avocados from South America anymore, and we're only using US avocados, it may go up to 450 for that pita, so that brings CPI right home onto your little food tray for you, and it shows up once a month, and that CPI report, and let's not forget, look, the spending, now there's the hope to get inflation down, because at the end of the day, it's government money spending, putting money into the system that really drives inflation, the US federal budget, first month, here's the first month in for 2025, we spent $257 billion more than we took in, a year ago it was $226 billion, so if that were a stock reporting, that wouldn't be very good, our bottom line earnings minus $257 billion versus $226 billion last year, now annualized $257, I did in my head it's over over $3 trillion, okay, we're on track to spend $3 trillion more than we take in, we take in about $4 trillion, we spend $7 trillion, God bless Elon Musk and Vivek, I did post this article this headline on X, and I addressed it to Elon Musk and hopefully they can find, and you know the other thing is, I like this, companies are totally transparent, they've got to list everything in their income statement, there's nothing off the books, or they're in big trouble, the government- Yeah, the government nothing is on the books, it's all behind a dark curtain, oh trust us, we know what we're doing, $37 trillion in debt, you know what you're doing, we need to have people, regular people, citizens, knowing where this money is going, and Musk has promised to be fully transparent, yeah, let's get an income statement, let's get an income statement every month, like companies, they do it every quarter, something as big as the government that we're funding, oh I wrote a huge check in October to my friends at the Fed, at the IRS, I want to know where it goes, damn it, I don't want it behind closed curtains, and go into this pet project, and this pet project, BS, I'm sick of it, let's get some transparency, and at least for once in our life, Barry, the last time this happened was Ronald Reagan, and you go back to who was the speaker, tip, no not tip, O'Neil, but the other guy who's, they balanced the budget, they balanced Newt Gingrich, they balanced the budget, okay, there's hope, there's hope for this huge, huge, spending that we're doing, we'll be right back. And welcome back here to the second quarter of today's Best Docs Now Show, European gas prices soar to year to date highs on heavy demand and potential Russia disruption, why are they getting their gas from Russia, makes absolutely no sense, the warning came after OMV said it received a $230 million arbitration award from the International Chamber of Commerce in connection with irregular gas supplies from Russia's gas prom sent through Germany before the flow was cut off in September 2022, well we currently have a moratorium that we cannot ship, America cannot ship liquefied natural gas to Europe, that's at a stand still, Austria and Slovakia still receive Russian gas through Ukraine, that's a different pipeline, and they're also anticipating colder weather in northern Europe, so you know, Europe struggling still, their economy is not growing by 1% of your berry, it's between 0 and 1%, right? Yeah, so you're saying they're still getting gas from Russia via a pipeline that goes through Ukraine? Austria and Slovakia, yeah, it goes through Ukraine, okay, so anyway, I'm pretty sure it goes through Ukraine, I don't know where else, I also would get there, I figure it would have to, but it seems like the kind of deal with struck with keeping that one alive, huh? And you got Euro area GDP is 0.4% so sorry, so I do have a small inverse position, personally not in the, not in the, but I have on this one before, I have EPV which is twice the return inverse of the developed Europe index, they're facing some problems over there in Europe right now, Nvidia rises as well, well is it rising, it was up, and then it was down, and now it's up, okay, it is up, one of the stocks it is up today, in a down NASDAQ, now, here's a couple observations I've made recently, Taiwan's semiconductor has been very soft here recently, and of course they're facing down a couple of issues, one is not being able to sell two nanometer or whatever that means, two nanometer chips, two China anymore, that's a problem, and they also have a law, they were going to start building some of these high tech chips at their foundries around the world, including the one in Arizona, but they have a law that prevents that, so all of that manufacturing of these very high end chips, which basically Nvidia's AI chips have to stay in Taiwan, and you know, Taiwan is always under threat from China, and it seems like it's amping up a little bit right now, maybe the market's a little spooked by that, I see the semiconductor sector pretty soft right now, AMD looks horrible, which we don't own, the only chip stock we own is Nvidia, and there's one other situation that I read this morning is that Taiwan has a lot of missiles, old outdated missiles, but they still work very, they still blow up when they hit something, right, okay, and smash it to smithereens, they're giving a bunch of their old missiles, like hundreds of them, to Ukraine, okay, they're outdated for the newer technology that Taiwan has, but for Ukraine, this could not, I don't imagine your, Russia looks at that too kindly, right, and it could be that Russia and China and North Korea, maybe they've got their sights set on Taiwan, I don't know, but that's always something that has scared me about owning Taiwan's semiconductor number one, and number two, it's like P ratio has always had a bit of an overhang on it, right, in terms of, I think simply because of that. And number two is, you know, I have read that if Taiwan were taken over by China, 80% of the chips, it would bring the global economy to a halt, okay, so there's always something to worry about out there in the market, and that is definitely a worry, I think too, especially this little timeframe between the Trump election and him actually taking office, maybe China sees that as an opportunity, I know that Biden's going to China, I think, before his time is up, and she is down, so I know he's going to meet with, I know he's going to meet with the, he just don't know, I don't know if it's in China or if it's somewhere like, if they're meeting, you know, somewhere off of whether it happened to be at the same conference or something. Yeah, but anyways, that is something to keep in the back of your mind, I do read the Tai Pei times in the morning, see what's going on, okay, let's go to the Netherlands, they're also involved in kind of infuriating Russia, they're selling weapons too, to Ukraine, ASM lithography, you know, that stock has just been dead in the water, they make the equipment for making this, they send the equipment, Taiwan, some of my conductors buys the equipment from ASML, or Dutch, not Netherlands, Dutch, and that is the Netherlands, right, yes, okay, no, I think it's a few names, the Dutch got a few names there, yes, I is hauling, I mean I'm right, okay, ASM lithography is breaking out today, it's up 5.1%, I have not chosen to get back into it, however, but they are stating that, you know, their plans are still going forward, AMD is reducing 4% of their workforce, AMD's chart looks horrible, just dead in the water, and the other piece of news here, I think I'll save this for when we get back, another one in the new, couple more nuclear news stocks, including a couple here that we've had for our live trading, live trading trial subscribers, but we'll talk about that when we come back, the news on two of them today, okay, as far as the live trading goes, wow, it's just exploded, Barry, I mean we have added so many folks, there's a big, there's a big, you know, there's a big community of people that like to buy and sell on their own, and so, you know, I've developed these tools for myself, and I've got the 30 years of experience doing a radio show, being a professional money manager, being an analyst, writing up research reports that I'm sharing with you, and I leave it all on the field every day, I mean, it's a big job, keeping you in touch with things I'm observing, buys and sells, you know, I sent out some buys and sells yesterday, pretty much every day since we started this, because I run five portfolios, and then I have what I call an incubator portfolio, that is my own personal, I'm the guinea pig, maybe it's the guinea pig portfolio, it's way down below even single A baseball, maybe single A where the prospects are, and I've done very, very well with that, and I'm even sharing those buys and sells with you, so if you go to gunnersoncapital.com, I mean that's the other half of my business, our business, half of it is for people that say I don't have the time bill, I don't have the time to do all of this, and the other half is for people that do have the time or just are committed to learning it and doing it themselves, so we have both of those for you, gunnersoncapital.com, we'll be right back. This is Bill Gunnerson, thank you for tuning in to today's best stocks now, best inverse funds now show, I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each date to bring you the very best cutting edge stories that I can, to get two free weeks of my newsletter go to gunnersoncapital.com, to talk to us about our fee based only money management services call us at 855 611 best, now back to the second half of the show. And welcome back here to the second half of today's best stocks now show. I'm going to talk a little bit about an incubator stock here, all right, the name of the stock is Auklo, I think we've talked about it before haven't we Auklo here on the show. It's fishing, is the next generation of a nuclear power, okay, now they have no clients, they have no sales, but maybe this is the beginning, okay, Auklo jumps, yeah, well it's up, Auklo right now is up on the 3.5%, 4.6%, okay, in the pre-market Wednesday, that's this morning, or last, oh yeah, pre-market Wednesday, okay, all right, that was yesterday, after saying it received letters of intent, that's an LOI, meaning they have a customer that wants to buy and they have a letter of intent on file now, I'm partnering with two unnamed data center providers, I'm thinking the data center providers might be those REITs, the data center REITs, to deliver up to 750 megawatts of low carbon power for data centers across the US, under the LOI's Auklo said it will work with one of the fastest growing data center companies, I'm thinking there's one that's really big, okay, and I'm trying to think of that name, it's a REIT, yeah, and they got purchased, they got purchased by the tower company out, yeah, American tower, okay, so it could be a good tower, core site, remember you wrote about them years ago, yeah, there's another one, yeah, there's another big one, oh anyways, but anyways, okay, so they've partnered with one of the fastest growing data center companies to deploy their powerhouses and select markets, so here it is, I mean this is the breakthrough from having an idea, a product, and their first customer, which could be a big one, the company's Aurora Powerhouse Design, write that down Barry, Aurora Powerhouse Design, and see if that is one of their newer fission nuclear reactor technologies, will provide power directly on site or nearby with units that can be deployed in phases, so for me, I mean that's a major breakthrough, now why is it in my incubator, oh well, okay, let's go to Seeking Alpha and see all of the articles I've been following this story for some time, okay, so back in August, there's an article OCLO, nuclear play worth watching, watching, and the next one, OCLO was a potential nuclear winner to buy, but maybe not just yet, okay, that was my feeling at that time, here's another article, OCLO offers a play on advanced nuclear power generation, but investing is premature, that was on September 21st, just three weeks ago, and then you got another one, OCLO, lighting up the new nuclear age, okay, so you can see it's like, okay, it's out there on the horizon, then here's another one written a month ago, OCLO, too much risk and no near reward, well, I think this guy's gonna be proven wrong with these two letter of intense, tent, and they will be also reporting earnings, which there are none after the close of the market today, so you know, that's one I own in my, I haven't, don't feel comfortable enough yet, now we do own one of the other ones in the emerging growth portfolio, but OCLO is definitely under consideration with this news that, hey, you know what, this pretty much puts a stamp of approval on their technology and that they really do have something, and who knows, I mean, this could lead to something, okay, now we go to a soggy stock that's having a good day, Disney, wow, Disney's having a huge day, Disney is up 8.3% today, you know, I mean, the streaming has really taken hold, Netflix is hitting a new all time high, $358 billion in market cap, they don't have a theme park, we need a Netflix theme park, Lego has one, you know, there's the crayon store at the Minnesota mall there, and there's the Disney world and Disneyland and all this other stuff, Netflix is 358 billion, Disney is only 200 billion, so Netflix is much bigger than the, but Disney is having a day, now let's look at the valuation on Disney, there's where the rubber hits the road as far as I'm concerned, Disney's upside potential, over the next 5 years is 46% that is very subpar, and I, well, we'll see if this earnings report moves the needle at all, but it would take a lot to move that needle. Yeah, it's interesting talking about, you know, stocks following earnings and also, you know, transparent earnings or, and so what Disney did is actually put forth a long-term earnings forecast, and they're, you know, they're, I think they're forecasting earnings out a couple of years, and they're, they're, you know, have a double-digit earning growth going forward, so they're essentially rewriting the, the analyst model, I guess earnings model at least for, for today, and, well, the last five years as it translates, right? Yeah. You should be at eight, up 8.5, eight percent, but we'll take a look. Over the last five years, their earnings growth has averaged 2% per year. That's pretty bad. Terrible. Now that included the, all of the, you know, the big disease, what was that we had going around that, you know, back in 2020, obviously. Yeah, COVID, of course. Yeah, COVID. I mean, that kills a theme park, where you're in close quarters, but anyways, I, I'm gonna strike, I mean, you had the, you had the writer strike to, but it's really, you know, they're, they're basically just laid out, you know, a long-term, you know, vision for, you know, for reason for owning the stock, and that's why the stock's up today. Yeah. Well, and they also own ESPN, which isn't doing very well. The big media, they own ABC News, which, you know, the big media channels are, are sucking wind right now, they're laying off at CNN, I'm just not a fan. Okay. I, I think there's better stocks out there. Own it for your grandkids, I know, because of the money you spend there. Now, if I'm the CEO of Super Microcomputer, you better get a criminal attorney at this point in time. This is not looking good, $18.83 today. I'm gonna look at where we sold this stock because we smell the rat. SMCI was one of the fastest growing stocks in the market. On this whole data center thing, we sold it for 168% profit. So we sold it at 7.23, but it's done at 10 for, so we sold it at $72 a share. Now it's $18.79. Okay. You gotta, you gotta recognize, if you're driving down the road and you start smelling a skunk down the road, man, the same thing happens in the stock market. Problems start to show up in charts before, you know, the actual problems are announced. And now this is like, wow, this has turned into a bad thing. And then Archer Daniel Midland's today, their compliance chief, he's fleeing for the hills. You wouldn't think a big company like that that's been around for so long and basically a grain company. But remember, we had a guy in Minnesota that traded grain. You remember that guy down in South America? Yeah, right. He said they played a lot of games in the futures markets, right? With grain. Right. True. Yeah, Archer Daniel Midland's is caught up in that. I mean, you wouldn't think a company out of Illinois that's a grain, grain silos and stuff like that would be discounting the wheat, but if something's not adding up here. I mean, unless they had, you know, they said they had so much inventory on hand and they didn't, right? I mean, because I guess he was going to go out there and count all the silos. I mean, you know, it'd be interesting, I'd like to know kind of what the, you need to read up and see on what part of the financial statements they're having an issue with or if at all. Yeah. Right. Right. Usually it's around revenue recognition. Right. You know, right. Exactly. When have you earned the money? Yeah. So they recognize the revenue before the, actually received the check to pay for the sale. Okay. All right. What do we have here? Well, one other nuclear play, let me see how it's doing. And this one I have a high interest in, Talon Energy TLN. This was the old PPL that went bankrupt. They came out of bankruptcy. They renamed themselves Talon Energy. They're headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania where PPL was, which I think was Pittsburgh Power and Light, or Philadelphia looked up what PPL was. It's now a nuclear play and it's hitting a new high today. We'll talk a little bit more about it when we come back. What's your role? Well, let's finish up with these three stocks and the new, you know what one of the worst charts in the entire market is, Realty Income. Okay. You've heard me many times talk about Realty Income. I have nothing against the company. It was, it turned in some pretty good powerful results a while back. You know, I've known it for 25 years, I think. That is a horrible chart. The Pivot Party, okay? The Pivot Party is over. All of these high dividend yield stocks were blowing up to the upside in anticipation of a pivot from raising rates to, not raising rates to lowering rates and that happened, okay? It's already happened. They bought the rumor, they sold the news, but over time you have to look at the three, the five and the ten year returns of these income-producing stocks to see the true story. I see an article today, how can you pass up Annerly Capital with the, I think it's 13% either 10 or 13% dividend yield. Over the last three years, Annerly Capital has lost you 4.8% per year. That means you got your dividend, but you lost the dividend and your principal for an average return of minus 4.8% per year over the last three years. Over the last five years, you've made up one half of one percent, 50 basis point average. And over the last 10 years, you've made 3.8% and you might say, "Well, I'm still getting my dividend." Your principal is getting slaughtered. Does that mean anything to you? Over the last three months, the S&P's up 12%. Annerly is up 2.6%, yet this is the latest favorite being passed around on seeking alpha. And of course, if you look at relative income, which is nice, yeah, you get a monthly check. How much is that? Check is your own money coming back to you, because over the last five years, relative income minus 30 basis points per year, minus 30 basis points per year. So they're sending you the dividend that they're paying, you're losing the dividend from your principal. Okay, that makes a lot of sense. They're basically taking the dividend from your principal. Your principal is going down faster than the dividend is keeping up. And over the last three years, you've lost 2% per year. I haven't seen any articles on really the income lately, but I'm sure there will be some. Okay, now, let's go to Talon Energy. That was actually nine utilities that got together a long time ago. It's Pennsylvania, power and light, PPL. And a couple of those got in trouble, and it might have been the three-a-mile island one that got in trouble, had to declare bankruptcy, re-emerge as Talon Energy, T-L-N. Talon is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Didn't Billy Joel have a song about Allentown, Barry? I think he did. I'm just living here in Allentown. I wasn't a Billy Joel fan myself, but I don't think it was Springsteen. I think it was Billy Joel, okay, Talon Energy owns and operates power infrastructure in the US. Look at this stock hitting a new high today. They are involved in the three-mile island, and they have a big nuclear component. So Talon, I sent this message out yesterday. It's an $11 billion company. I don't think it has a dividend. No. So if I were to buy it, it would be in our ultra-growth portfolio, more than likely. And I am looking at it. I was waiting for today's earnings announcement. Their sales were up 26%. Their earnings were up 343%. This is now an AI artificial intelligence play, and it has been for some time. It's up there with Vistra, it's up there with Constellation Energy, and a few others. T-L-N is the symbol. We do not own any shares in this stock, not even in the incubator portfolio. But it's definitely, I'm keeping my eye on it, and we'll close with a soggy stock. Okay, Cisco, the most over-owned stock, apparently in the market, along with Johnson and Johnson. Cisco just has no growth, okay? They've reported four quarters in a row with nothing but red numbers. They're making money. They're going to make $3.90 a share this year. But Cisco earnings down 18% year over year, sales down 6% year. This marks four quarters of big sales drops and big earnings drops, yet it's still in the Dow, right? Cisco's still in the Dow. I'm pretty sure it is, $230 billion market cap, one of the great stocks of all time. But if I go back five years ago, it was $58 a share. Where is it today? $58 a share, okay, you know, they just have not come up with anything new. They missed out on AI, a recent network seems to be the play there, and this is the epitome, the epitome of a soggy stock. And you know, look at your portfolio. You've got your monthly statement, your November statement or your October statement, and if you're at one of the big warehouse firms, I can almost guarantee you that you have Cisco in your portfolio. This is the epitome of soggy, soggy, old growth giants of yesteryear. But they're very, very popular on Wall Street. The guy's over at Morgan Stanley says, yes, it's okay to own Cisco and Johnson and Johnson and General Motors and on down the line because people recognize those big names. All right. Well, yeah, we're, I mean, just keep right on down the line. There's just, they all fit that soggy, mushy, no growth category. Well, we're going to have some fun today, I have an extraordinary amount of charts to look at again today because of all this action in the market since the election has created all these momentum stocks, but 98% of them are pretenders to the throne. And maybe we'll find one or two percent today. I've got my eyes on a couple today, and I have been in the buying mood since the cloud of the election blew, drifted into the, off into the sunset. If you'd like to try this out, you know yourself, you go to gunnersoncapital.com and sign up for a four week trial of live trading, you say, I don't have time to do that. Well, then make an appointment with us at 855 611 best, 855 611 best. Have a great day, everybody. This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Build gunnerson or clients of gunnerson capital management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Fast performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunnerson capital management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.