The Jon Sanchez Show

11/15- What is the market telling us?

What a difference a few days make. Last week, the market was full of optimism created by the election results. This week, trading action has been dominated by interest rate headlines. As rates slowly rise and earnings season comes to an end, what are the positives and negatives investors should be aware of?

Duration:: 35m
Broadcast on:: 16 Nov 2024
Audio Format:: other

There's only one feeling like knowing your banker personally, like growing up with a bank you can count on, like being sure what you've earned is safe, secure, and local. There's only one feeling like knowing you're supporting your community. You deserve more from a bank. You deserve an institution that stood strong for generations. Bank of Colorado, there's only one member FDIC, who stock 780k, which it's a pleasure to be with you, a pleasure to be with my co-host, and a pleasure to say TGIF. Jay, this one, I think I'm gonna throw in about three to four exclamation points after my TGIF. It was that crazy of a week. Yeah, we got snow falling and you're right, right? Right. I'm going into winter, yeah. Yes, indeed. In the holiday spirit, a few weeks ahead of time. Yes, I need to grab my bell so I can shake. I was glad the bell went off today. Yeah, boy, isn't that the truth, my goodness. What a day. What a day it was. Well, we are excited to do to, first of all, have all of you with us and we're excited to tell you what did happen today. And then let me tell you what we are basically you have on the agenda. Fridays, of course, we kind of bebop around to a lot of different areas. But, you know, I want to use the saying, Jason, as the old saying goes, what a difference a day makes. Well, in our case, what a difference a week makes. Yeah, for sure. You know, last week, you know, we had so much optimism and the Trump bump and so on, so forth going on in the market. All that, of course, created by the election results this week, the trading action completely dominated by interest rate headlines. Seems like almost every day yesterday, especially when Jerome Powell basically saying we're not in a hurry to cut rates. And that seemed to be the kind of the straw that broke the camel's back. But as these rates slowly rise and earning season comes to an end, we have to ask ourselves, what are the positives? What are the negatives that you as an investor should be aware of? Well, we're going to let you know this afternoon on the program because the list is long and is detailed. But of course, we will do our best to simplify it and get through as many as we possibly can. But with that said, my friend, the floor is yours. How about a little recap for us? Yeah, I mean, today, we had a fair amount of economic data that certainly, I think, gave the market the bulk of its direction, right? I think coming into the day you had applied materials had underwhelming numbers. There are big chip equipment maker. You've seen many of the players around X and video come out with some pretty cautious guidance or not sort as robust as Nvidia has been. Remember, we're going to get their earnings results, I believe on the 20th, but next week, whatever the day is Wednesday. And so they're going to be, you know, we've seen a head and shoulders pattern, which we can always show you at some point or Google it in the semi conductors, which can be a bearish pattern in semis have been one of the darlings. I would say the market leader for much of this year, given that the excitement around AI and machine learning, all those sorts of things. You mentioned yesterday, I know you guys touched on it last night, Jerome Powell making comments, sort of intimating that, look, we don't need to be in such a hurry to lower rates. Remember, the Fed very much is more fearful, even though they say they're more fearful of jobs slowing or the unemployment situation changing. I think in the back of their mind, they're much more fearful of inflation re re engaging to the upside. The interesting data point from there, I'd point out is, you know, you and I were talking on Wednesday, we mentioned rates were for 45ish on the 10 year. All of the things that the Fed said yesterday, what did what did the 10 year do today? Moved a bit, right? So you've got that, you know, resistance level, I'd say here at that four and a half level. If things break higher than yes, I think that the market is very much going to respond. And it did respond a bit today. I don't doubt it was more of a sort of, as we've talked about, you touched on on Wednesday correctly, that the market feels tired. It feels sort of biased to the downside. And we said that rates part, you could actually see interest rates follow, you know, in going lower, merely from a risk off, right? It almost feels like if I jump from this stock market moat, I'm seeing the interest rates go up. Is that where I want to jump to? Could have been some of the strength in crypto that you saw post Trump. Clearly, there's a lot of tailwinds there. But it's sort of a tough environment in that you have a good year. But if you want to be cautious or conservative, the question is where do investors go? They're sort of worried about interest rates, they're worried about inflation, they're worried about that hurting them and being a quote unquote safe haven. We got retail sales today, they were, I would say slightly better than expected, you know, following on revise September numbers as well. So the consumer doesn't seem to be dying on the vine by any stretch. Again, sort of as was touched on industrial production was a touch lower than expected. And so that is something that you're seeing businesses clearly the Boeing effect can't help. So there's a lot number of cross currents. And then finally, you know, Robert F Kennedy being tapped or at least nominated for the, you know, health and human services, a notable vaccine skeptic probably had a, you know, member health care is the second biggest sector in the market had that whole space down today. So there's a lot of, you know, Trump appointee cross currents that I think are affecting the markets in a lot of different ways. But we're still up on the month, we're still up a percent and a half since the election numbers, I would say a sort of a given to pull back a bit given the big move we saw so fast. Yeah, absolutely. You know, so many things that you mentioned, I want to go back to let's go do the one that you're most recent, which of course is RFK being nominated again to to run the health care or health division. You know, you look the likes of a more dare to write down 6.61 percent today, $2.63 loss, $37.14 again, you go as you said, right on 30, 714, that was what a $400 stock at some point. Like it was wasn't it? Yeah, exactly right. Yeah, exactly right. Yeah, it could do no wrong during the during the COVID era. But you sit back and you go, this is a prime example, the point I want to bring across, this is a prime example of what can happen. And again, why we did our webinar on Wednesday, even with nominations, the market starts to react, right? We were hearing a lot of, like to use your term, a lot of cross currents for the different nominations that are out there. And this, you know, this whole thing is this beginning, what is there 400 different departments or something that he has to name heads of? So you're going to get a lot of this as we get closer. And then, and then, you know, after after January 20th, folks, then it's not over yet at that point, then you're going to get what two, three, maybe four months of confirmation hearings and things. So it's going to be a long time before we really, truly know and understand who is, you know, who's going to be running these various departments. And, you know, the UNI on, on Wednesday, we said this, remember when Hillary ran and she was anti farm anti pharmaceutical stocks and things. Remember that? I'll never forget that the massive decline that we saw in the pharmaceuticals when she was running for presidency. And so the market is very, very in tune with what these different cabinet picks are and they're, they're, they're passed and so on and so forth. So just, again, another, you know, effect, I should say, or remnant is a better word, another remnant of the, you know, post election market trying to digest where things are going to go. There was a lot of talk yesterday. And I can't remember the exact name of the conference, but it was a basically a conference of world leaders that occurred yesterday. Of course, Trump wasn't there. And it was funny. I don't know if you saw the story on that. I think it was Bloomberg or W S J that I saw it. But it was funny, Jason, because, you know, Trump was not there and they said, nobody won. You know, you got leaders from Asia and all over the world. Nobody was had the guts, they said to mention Trump's name for like the first couple hours of the conference. And then the words, you know, then then the people started talking about it and opened up about basically their fears. I mean, these world leaders are terrified of Trump. They're terrified of, of, of mainly the tariffs and then many other things that we won't get into. But the bottom line is this it's not just our markets, folks. Watch the Asian markets. I went over this this morning, Jason. Let me let me bring up my notes real quickly. This morning, when I was in the stock updates, I came across some data that I thought was very, very interesting. In regards, yeah, here it is, in regards to the Asian markets. Now, listen to this, folks. You know, if we if we basically look at the Asian Pacific regions for the end of this week, okay, so listen to some of these numbers and think about this. Even some allies are involved in this, but it's all fear of tariffs. The Nikkei, the Japanese market down 2.2% for the week, Hong Kong lost 6.3%. China gave up 3.5% India down 2.4 South Korea down 5.6. And even our friends in Australia, they were down 2/10 of a percent for the week. So this is why Jesus keeps talking about the tariffs and the after effect of the of the win with Trump. These are these are the lingering effects like we keep saying that term. The sugar high is starting to wear off a little bit. People starting to feel a little bit tired, a little bit concerned. It's like, okay, we need another shot of of something to get everybody excited again, because now reality is set in, right? Now reality starting to set in. People are taking their time to digesting like we're doing, you know, trying to predict where we think things are going to go both for the good and the bad and then making necessary decisions in movements on that. So it's a it's a very interesting time we find ourselves in right now. Yeah, and I mean, the dollar strength, right? That's been something given that interest rates have moved up the dollars tracking it. So that's part of the reason why those markets are under as much pressure as they are just because of that effect to be. Yeah, it was a very quick risk off in that rotation out of Europe in Asia into the US. I mean, there was a chart CNBC had it up today. I've seen different versions of it. The US performance is like so ridiculous over the last like they showed two blips. I mean, imagine a chart with two tiny humps off to the left and then just like a moonshot to the right. Those two tiny humps were like 2000 and 2008 when US those humps, the peak of them being US out performance versus rest of world. Just showing that we're so far from a valuation standpoint, you know, ahead of everywhere else. And yes, it's US exceptionalism, but sort of is, you know, again, the last two years, we've talked about it. And again, I very much have been wrong, but like in a diversified portfolio, those are areas that at some point you want to make sure that you have exposure to it. Even if it's a drag, it will reverse and it will reverse hard. It's just a matter of the win because and dollar is going to be your barometer. That's the thing you're going to want to keep an eye on because dollar weakness will be met with that rotation. When it happens, my guess is it happens pretty fast. Yeah, let's touch on that. I think that's a subject that definitely deserves some additional discussion. So we'll talk about the US dollar and its impact on the markets and allocations and things like that. Great point. You bring up my friend, started over to Kristen Snow, another great friend of us in the right now at traffic center. You sound like you're a busy lady this Friday afternoon, my dear. Amen. Amen. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on his talk, 780 kwh. Jason got we finished down 306 on the Dow 0.70% loss. 43,444 was our closing level. And again, what a wide range we had. We hit a high of 43, 647 and a low of 43, 350. Nasdaq. This is where the trouble was a 428 point decline down 2.24%, closing at 18,680 and the S&P 500 lower by 78 point or 1.32% to 5,870. Well, for the day pulling back 2.4%, 67.02 a barrel, gold down just a fraction down one tenth of a percent 2,570 an ounce. And as Jason mentioned up about 12 or excuse me up fractionally on the the bond market side of things. I'm stalling here. I didn't write my notes down. There we go. One basis point increase. That was it. I have it here somewhere. Yeah, just one basis point increase on the tenure. But but again, for the week, it was a pretty good run up of 12 basis points there. Let's hit the weekly numbers and then we'll come back to the dollar topic because again, this is something very interesting. So for the week, the Russell 2000 lost 3.99%. The S&P was down 2.08. The Dow lost 1.24 and then NASDAQ at 3.15% decline. I don't like starting to get into those 3% marks, especially the Russell down because it had tremendous for instance. Yeah, exactly. Got a little bit of froth in that one. But we got to watch these closely. You know, again, we're starting to start to see some and I didn't like the other thing I didn't like today. And I knew you didn't obviously the the tech rule over, you know, meta down over 23 bucks and and NVIDIA down over four and a half bucks and running down the line. So that was one thing. All right, give Professor your education on the US dollar. It's a very confusing area. But again, I think it's a go it's worthy of some discussion because it is moving a lot of areas of the market meaning moving our listeners and our clients portfolios. Yeah. And I mean a lot of folks who are dabbling in gold and silver. And remember, we talked, you know, a couple of weeks ago about how we thought that gold had sort of overshot and that it was due for a correction. And we've seen that over the last, you know, week or two, maybe a little bit of a substitution trade as folks are rolling into their favorite crypto asset given the Trump administration has made comments that they're going to be more front footed on positive moves there. But, you know, the dollar is where, you know, the reason that we said that gold could be weak is you've got you've got US dollar, you've got US interest rates and gold. If we're going to say those are the three items that how do they correlate to each other. Typically, the dollar is going to track interest rates. Remember, because of the fact that if our interest rates are higher, people want to buy our bonds because we're still the best house on a bad street. Despite everyone thinking, Oh, the dollar is going to go to zero. And guess what? It's not it's going the opposite direction. It's been very, very, very, very strong for the reasons of our interest rates are higher. And, you know, the love it or hate it, the debt levels of the US have not spooked folks enough that they still want to flock and buy those assets. So rates and dollar going together. So, but I feel like and part of what we talked about on Wednesday, John, right, where you and I were going back and forth about our view of the tenure, right, or interest rates. Note of me, I'm sort of the tenure is what we were talking about. And that technically looking at the dollar, looking at the tenure, it's really moved back up to the upper end of the channel that it's been in over the last, I would say two years, certainly on the dollar side, it's fluctuated. And when I say the dollar, I just mean the dollar DXY index is what it's called. If you're looking at like the Dow or the S&P, another index to watch is DXY. That is the US dollar against Euro, Swiss, Yen, lots of currencies, just a basket of currency, sort of us against them. And the dollar has gotten up to the high end of that channel that it's been sitting in for two years. It's gotten down to as low as almost 100. And then now is up at 105, 106 level, which has been major resistance for some time. Using that as a bit of a canary in a coal mine, the reason that we watch the dollars, because as the dollar gains in value versus those other currencies, it has a headwind effect on non-US companies. It has a headwind effect on non-US. If you buy an international stock, for example, Europe-based or Euro-based, you would sell your dollars because we're a US investor and buy that Euro and then buy your favorite European company. That's the mechanics of buying a European stock. Well, even if that stock is acting the exact same from a performance standpoint, currency adjusted, the Euro is going down. It is losing value because the dollar is strengthening. So if you're a US investor, you're seeing your portfolio lose value nearly because of the currency effect. And that's why I talk about it all the time. Like, hey, if you look where the dollar is, it's outperformed for so much. At some point, just even throw the stock performance out the window. If the companies, because as you know, John, you've touched on it well so many times, as goes the US, goes international, as goes US, goes Asia. If US goes down, Asia is going to go. They track each other quite a bit, but the currency effect is the part really. That ends up making you a winner, a loser at the end of the day. So if you're, you got to look at both things, you may think this European company's great. But what's the currency going to do when you're exposed to it? And so as a US investor, those are things you need to think about. So the fact that the dollar is on the upper end of that range, and I think it could weaken your, your, you have a potential tailwind of selling dollars to buy your favorite international stock or fund or ETF, because you could benefit from it. So that's just part of some of that back and forth. Excellent explanation. Let's, let's throw one more quick thing in before we go to break. And, and as you were describing that so eloquently, I had some flashbacks again going back to the Trump administration prior. It has been a while, and this is why I want to remind everybody, it has been a while since an earnings season has come around, quarterly earnings, and you've had comments from companies, remember folks, out of the S&P 580% of them generate a significant portion of the revenue overseas. But it has been a number of years where you've had a company when they release their earnings numbers or given earnings warning, saying we are discounting our earnings per share because of currency risk or currency. What's the proper term that it's been so long? Devaluation or? Yeah, currency. Yeah, current, current, relative currency moves. Yeah. Well, it's a currency. There you go. Yeah. And, and so with, with that, what we mean by that is, let's say a company says, all right, we're going to make a million dollars this next quarter. Well, if they're, again, doing sales overseas, again, as 80% of the S&P 500 does, guess what? They, those earnings, let's say 20% of the, of the earnings are generated in Europe and 30% are generated in Asia. They have to adjust to Jason's point. They have to adjust those earnings. They can't say, oh, well, we made, you know, $300,000 in Asia and 200,000 in Europe in US dollars. No, no, no, no, no. They may have made that, but then they have to convert it again to the currency there to get an accurate reporting and to follow, you know, the, the national or the global accounting standards, the gap, global accepted accounting practices. And so that, remember Jason back in the Trump administration, that, I remember, that was a big shock for a lot of times. A lot of people I should say during that time period, because you'd think a company's doing really good. But after the, the currency adjustments, like, oh, they didn't make a million. They really only made, you know, whatever, 200,000 by the time was adjusted. So that's another negative of the very strong US dollar when they have to, you know, go to correct that. So and I want to add more to that after the break, because there's some more color of, you know, apples, a perfect example of where that can hurt. Love it. There you go. That's a good one. All right. We will continue that discussion when we come back this Friday. First, let's turn it over to Jack Saban. He's got news traffic and weather. Hey, Jack. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on his talk, 780 KOH with Jason Gottm. We finished down 306 on the Dow, a loss of 428 on the Nasdaq and a 79 point decline on the S&P 500. All right. Before you get back to the dollar comments you wanted to make. So are you doing it tonight at five? I don't know. Watch in the fight. Yeah. Absolutely. I wish I could see, I mean, I was a massive Tyson fan as a kid. Like I was weepy when he lost a buster. Unfortunately, he wasn't good 25 years ago. Like, so he's, I think he's going to get crushed, but I, it'll be fun to watch. You know, you're just never going to get that absolute psychopath. I just, I just, I just realized something though. I really need to expand my horizons instead of my life focusing on the stock market and financial news because A, I heard that he was fighting. B, I have no idea. I still don't, who he's fighting. I know Jake Paul or whatever the guys didn't don't know anything about him. But the, the icing on the cake was during the break. My daughter just texted me and she said, you're watching the big fight tonight. And I said, no, I'm not going to buy the fight thinking it's on paper. I'm not going to buy the fight and watch some fat old and out of shape guy that, you know, that we're going to make rich and the guys just a jerk in my opinion. And she goes, um, dumb, you know what? It's on Netflix. And I said, yeah, I said, well, your sister, when she put me on a budget a year ago, because my, her, my daughter, her sister is a bookkeeper, I said, she made me cancel Netflix. She starts a lot. She sends a laughing back. She goes, Oh no, she still watches it and she logs in under your account. You've been watching my Netflix for the last year, cut me off, cut me off of the $11 a month subscription because I wasn't in my budget. Now, now she's been enjoying it. Yeah, I had a few choice words to say exactly. So I am on the fight at five o'clock. Yeah, that's, that's true love for you, right? That's true love for you right there. That's a lot of that off. But take his, his, uh, his, uh, his login. Yeah, it is very kind of you. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. So, okay, so I'll watch it because I'm not going to put money into his pockets. Yeah, we'll see. He doesn't make as much. I think he only makes like half of what Paul makes. Oh, no kidding. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. But, but, but if you watch it, he still gets paid the same amount. So it's not like you were actually doing pay per view. So, you know, you can watch it. Yeah, see, I was right. There was no way in hell I was going to do pay per view and put money in that. Remember that? Those things were. X is. Yeah. No. No way. Only place. I like Mike Tyson is in the, um, you know, some of the movies he, uh, he did. Yeah. He probably shouldn't talk about it, but he did a show, a cartoon show that is not for adult or adult audiences only. We had our place up in Canada and we're like, Hey, look, Mike Tyson mysteries. Like this is on TV. And again, for the, whatever, I'm not recommending you watch this. However, we started watching it and you want to talk about an off color show. Oh, my gosh, I was like, we're somebody. Yeah. Oh, yeah. It's got Norm McDonald. It's got, uh, it's, it's absolutely incredible. But again, anyway, but yeah. So, uh, he's got to fight, uh, tonight, um, probably be pretty fast as my guys predicting 300. Yeah, I bet I predict he'll probably, well, I don't know. I was going to say, if it's all legitimate, I predict he'd probably get knocked out by the second or third round, but he'll be telling to kind of stretch it out a little bit. So audience, 300,000 plus that are set to watch this, uh, you know, get, kind of get their money's worth or something. I can't even imagine. Like, how do you even get in that good of shape in your 50s to do? Right. Yeah. I think he's my age. Yeah. 60 years old. It's amazing. Yeah, I mean, it's a heavy pot smoker. He's just like, Oh, yeah. Shrooms. And I mean, he does it all. It's like, I mean, again, you're not watching him for like, someone to, you know, look up to, no, no, no, no, not like when you and I were younger, we watched it. I actually did. Yeah. When he was like, then, still, he was a terrible person. I mean, Robin, yeah, but he's the hell of a fighter, though. I'm just proud that I beat Mike Tyson's punch out. Like, it's like, you know, one of those life achievements, right? Video game on Nintendo. You know, you study is probably like 15. I'm like, yeah, I didn't get bloodied. Exactly. All right. Let's talk. Let's talk us dollars back to business. There we go. Excellent segue. So we were talking about the dollar and weakness strength. And you were pointing out, well, as far as earnings and how they're linked. Well, member two, there's also the fact that you're up, for example, they sell iPhones in Europe in order to repatriate those assets back. There's the term as a repatriate. That's it. That's it. So to repatriate those assets back, there's massive taxes involved, right? And so they've got all this money parked and all these other currencies overseas that is an issue too, right? So they they're beholden to those currency effects. Like they can't even really get away from them. Yes, they could do some hedging and things, but those assets sit over there. And you've got a lot of exposure. So yeah, those are, you know, you got to keep an eye on those companies that have big exposures to Euro or yen or you name it. You know, the yen's been weakening quite a bit. Remember, we're all freaked out when you had that big shock to the market, when the yen was rallying, it was strengthening against the dollar and it freaked out everyone with that carry trade. And I was like, wait a minute, they've got two X plus the debt problem we have to GDP. And their average age is 67 years old, ours is 37. So as told, the yen's now moved back, I think 20 points from 138 to now what is close to 156 or seven to the dollar. So pretty big reversal there. And now people like, Oh my gosh, it's weakening too much. There's all never making anybody happy. But yeah, that's an excellent point and something to always keep an eye on as even a US investor does my company that I'm buying have a lot of exposure to overseas markets. Yep. Yep. Absolutely. Repatriate. Thank you for bringing that term back. Couldn't remember that for life for me. All right, we promised you we're going to talk about some of the positives and some of the negatives that are going on right now is, you know, we're a couple of weeks into knowing who our next president is going to be. All right, we're going to start on the positive factors. Number one, hey, we can't argue we've got good strong corporate earnings. However, I think Jason nailed the point right at the beginning of the show. We are starting to see some deceleration and earnings. We're starting to see some lower guidance. I think the question, Jason, that we need to ask ourselves is, is corporate America starting, you know, basically now as earning seasons winding down, are they going to start to give some more cautious guidance going forward because they don't know what the new, you know, the old saying we don't know exactly what's going to happen with the economy with the new presidency and so on and so forth. Yes, everyone's vying for lower taxes, et cetera, but nothing is for certain at this point. But in the meantime, strong corporate earnings, the question is, can this market feed off of that and continue to rise based upon what we know at this point, or are we going to start seeing some more negative earnings or negative warnings? I think we're going to start seeing some more warnings. Obviously, we got a ways to go to the cautious guidance. Yeah, probably why not table it given, you know, when people are counting on Q4 earnings being good, right? I mean, we're sort of aside from Nvidia to the back half of earnings at this point, we've got a while before we're going to see those and I mean, Trump will already be there, right? I mean, he'll already sort of be in, I want to say power or whatever, like he's a king or something, but, you know, he'll be in the office. There you go. By the time that the next quarter earnings come out. So yeah, they'll be, I would imagine, a fair amount of job owning around guidance as a function of whatever changes they're making tariffs and things along those lines. So yeah, that wouldn't want to be a CEO of a multi, multinational corporation right now, right? And you've seen companies like Dollar General get kicked in the teeth, right? Because they've already been facing the headwinds of lower end consumers. But guess where they get all their stuff from China? I mean, like, we'd like walking through the whole store is basically, you know, that's, you know, stuff. And it's one of those trades. And as soon as I saw the weakness and then heard more about, I'm like, ah, it's like, ah, man, those are those are the those are the fun ones where you can pick out a theme of some kind of be like, who's really going to get hurt from tariffs? The first thing wouldn't have come to me would be Dollar General. And then when you think like, Oh, wow, yeah, they really do. So exactly. All right. All right. We'll come back. We'll have another positive, which is you, the consumer, you and I is the consumer. You and I and Jason is the consumer, right? Retail sales number today. Not bad. We'll explain why this is one of the positives that we're facing right now. Let us wrap it up with Kristin Snow in the right now. Truffix. All right, Kristin. Sanchez Show on his talk. 780k, which is a quick reminder. We have a hundreds upon hundreds of, but I think are really, really good podcasts available to you. Let's go to your favorite podcast distributor iTunes Spotify. You name it. We're out there. And, you know, there's something that you are looking for. I bet we've talked about it and sit back and relax this nice snowy weekend and get smart. That's our goal each and every day to make a little bit smarter on the markets than you were before the show started. All right. We're talking about, again, some of the positives and negatives. What's the market telling us, etc. So we said, again, a positive effect, strong corporate earnings. We know about that. Economic resiliency, again, as Jason alluded to, we had a good retail sales report today at 4/10 of a percent. You're still out there spending money. We know we've got some good technological advances. I mean, volunteers also, as we mentioned, big move on that stock today. They're moving over from the New York, or excuse me, from the NASDAQ to the New York. New York, yeah. So they'll be included in NASDAQ, which is stock added as well as it did today. That's right. So, you know, big move on that stock, obviously AI, so on and so forth. So there's, you know, again, we can go on and on as far as the positives. The negatives, first and foremost, Jason, as we were talking to, we're blue in the face. We spend a lot of time all week, including tonight, talking about this. The Fed stands on interest rates, right? This is by far at the top of the absolute list, a little over 50% probability of a quarter percent cut. We started the week north of 80% probability. It's beginning to wane a little bit, not to pay a tremendous amount of attention there, but again, those comments from Powell yesterday, they hurt. It was a Mike Tyson jab across the face. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it just, it's just at the table, right? You know, the Fed's going to jawbone. That's what they're there to do. And he probably doesn't want to lower rates, right? We said that. Like they just, like, you know, again, sort of the view of that they need to at some point because of historical policy and how the markets and the economy have reacted to what is a, you know, a very, again, I think restrictive Fed in the relative to where inflation is at currently. And the economy is just so strong. It's able to deal with that. But if it starts to slow, the concern is it takes a long time for that decrease to kick in. And, you know, that's my chief concern is that we do see a deceleration of some kind. And, you know, again, inflation versus economic growth, if the deceleration happens, you know, God forbid it goes hand in hand while we're seeing inflation at the same time, because that's the worst of all worlds. But, you know, that's why I keep sort of saying is, you know, their, and remember Trump, the reason he hates Powell or wants to get rid of him is because he wants lower interest rates. Like, so you need to think of that part too. And so, you know, odds are he's going to jawbone those rates down come next year, right? Trump probably wants the market to be down before he starts, even though he can say, oh, look at this bump that I got. But then maybe, yeah, I'd rather come in on the, and look what the market's done since I took office. You probably want some market down 10% from here. Say a bunch of negative jawbone things just to be coming in and save the day. Real quickly, obviously, we can't physically share the chart, but sure, the office, the audience, the chart that we're discussing going over before. Yeah, I just showed the first year after Democrat. So incumbent Democrat, and then Democrat wins the election or Republican wins the election. The chart going back for the first year, Democrat is much, much stronger market than a Republican is. So it's just something to keep an eye on. If anybody wants to see it, just email us office at Sanchez. Well, I'm happy to send it over. But yeah, just it just showed the first year, historically, a Republican tends to see weaker market performance than Democrats. Yeah, exactly. Folks, we're going to continue talking about this. Again, every day, it seems like it changes. And that's why we love being behind this microphone each and every day for you. We appreciate you joining us. We wish you a wonderful, safe weekend. Jay, enjoy the fight tonight. Have some popcorn in your favorite beverage, and we'll be rested on Monday. All right. Yeah, you too. Enjoy. I'm going to. I'm going to say that off the pay for it. And now I know my login. I'm going to go watch it on Netflix. Have a good weekend, everybody. God bless. This program was sponsored by Sanchez Wealth Management. 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