The Jon Sanchez Show

11/13-Was it a goldilocks CPI report or not?

This morning, we received the October CPI report. Overall, the report was subtle enough for traders to think we will still receive a ¼% interest rate cut in December. But is the report too hot for the Fed’s liking? Why did bond yields move up again? We’ll share with your our views, this afternoon on the Jon Sanchez Show at 3pm.

Duration:: 35m
Broadcast on:: 14 Nov 2024
Audio Format:: other

Good Wednesday afternoon to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez Show, one new stock, seven, 80 K a week. It's a pleasure to be with you on this hump day and a pleasure to be with my co host Jason con of Sanchez wealth management. Who big Jay, this is a warm up to our big event tonight. Is it not? We're just going to get warmed up here. There's a second there where I wasn't sure if today was Tuesday or Thursday. Oh, I know I've been the same. It's me. I don't know what it is. Yeah. Thank you. Thought I was losing my mind. I know it's like a long week. It's been a long week for sure. Maybe that's what it is. Yeah. That's exactly what it is. It's been a long week. Yep. We're on the backside now. We're we're we're we're going into the tuck position and heading down to the ski lift. How about? Yeah, I like it. Some people are. Yeah. I was going to say, have you got up there yet? No, no, I'm not one of those hardos that thinks it's fun to scratch the skis because, you know, wow, look, there's dirt right right there. And, you know, but hey, good folks, you do it. Enjoy. There you go. Those are those those are my self. Yes. Yes, exactly. No, the feeling that's for sure. All right. Well, welcome all of you. We appreciate you joining us this afternoon. Let me tell you what we have lined up for you. We are going to make you CPI experts. No, well, we're talking about consumer price index, the retail measure of inflation. We kind of got a report today. We're going to call it a Goldilocks report today. Or was it really a Goldilocks report? Numbers kind of show that it was. Market didn't get very excited about it. Fed futures jumped up a little bit as far as the probability of a quarter percent cut at that December meeting. But is there more to it? I know we've got the details for you. We got the details. So we'll move into that topic after the stock market recap because inflation is extremely important, folks. Don't don't tune us out here. We're not going to bore you. I promise you that. But you need to understand what's going on with inflation right now because that ties into the Fed. Fed ties into your portfolios. It's really that simple. But before we get started, I want to throw out a reminder. Jason and I were just joking a moment ago. This is a warm-up to our big event tonight. We cannot wait 6.30 p.m. tonight. We're going to be hosting our live webinar. How the election results may impact your investment portfolio. If you'd like to join us, we still have room. Come on in. All you got to do is go to the website at sanchezwalthmanagement.com. Click on upcoming events. Put your name in there and we will be joined by you this evening at 6.30 p.m. So cannot wait. Jason, we've, speaking of the webinar, we've had a number of topics throughout this week. And of course, last week, I can't believe I was joking with Ross this morning as I was doing the stock updates. I'm like, I can't believe it's already been a week. And he goes, no, a week in a day since the election. It's just goodness where's this time going. But we've got so many things that we're going to be sharing tonight with the audience in regards to how this new landscape is really unfolding now that we know. And then the big news today, and we're going to touch you on this on the on the webinar tonight. Guess what, folks, if you haven't heard NBC news has declared that as Republicans, we took the house. And so it is a clean sweep, a trifecta. So that will be one of the many things we talked about and the importance of that in the market in your portfolios tonight. Yeah, I've been working on my makeup all day. So, you know, thank goodness. Yeah, for bed. You ran to our makeup. I don't know, maybe like in a high school, or rather not high school elementary school musical or something. That was the only thing, you know, I was on NBC here, you know, for many, many years, and you have to wear the makeup and it's just seems it's so strange. But I was I was joking with my wife the other day, somehow the subject came up and I said, where I put my foot down is when they required this was when HD TV came out. So I forget what year that was. And they required that all their, you know, TV personalities, including me, that we had to learn how to do spray on makeup, the like little air guns, like you paint cars and stuff like airbrush. Yeah. And I remember going in there, you know, like, what in the world am I doing? And I did it one time. And that was it. So yeah, make make ups a little. I just I don't feel comfortable with that. It's fine. No, it's fine. Have it drive me absolutely nuts. I just sort of like a lot of about yeah, it couldn't do it. It would make me crazy. I hear you. All right. Well, let's get down to business because we got a lot of things that we need to share with you. Once again, you know, I want to kind of just start, Jason, we we've got kind of a loose schedule tonight because again, Jason and I are going to be having to do a lot of talking this evening. I want to kind of just go a little bit on the casual side with you right now. And I want to I want to share with the audience kind of what you and I are feeling in our hearts at this point about this market because it's it's it's it's acting somewhat unique and somewhat strange. So you start with your perspective. I'll throw in my perspective. Let's start with this show with that tonight. Yeah. So I think the major takeaway is again, the pessimist in me, you know, everyone sort of fancies themselves a stock picker right now because, you know, you you probably have had a tough time not buying something that has gone up, right? Be it your favorite crypto asset because of the election, your favorite semiconductor asset because of AI. You know, there's been lots of places that it's been a Goldie locks market for, you know, let's say a year or two, you know, the back half of this year feels this is almost like a bit of a blow off. But I don't think that the markets going to crash. I just think that, you know, people get too used to the good days and that the bad days feel even worse, right? And so, you know, a down two to three to four or five percent pullback will hurt. And remember, down five percent is now five percent on a bigger number, right? Hopefully your portfolios have grown. But yeah, interest rates. I think that's something that has people a little concerned. Again, I keep thinking that we're very close to stretched on the 10 year. I'm I'm of the opinion that rates are going lower across the board to watch things like opposite of what we said on the show. Yeah, right. I'll take the other side. You know, I think that, you know, the dollar has been very strong. Crypto assets have been very strong. Okay, you're getting technicals. I want Jason Gantz. Yeah, no, but I'm getting to that. Yeah, I'm getting to that. You know, I still think we're higher at the end of the year than we are now. So that's probably my punch line. But I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see some chop over the next couple weeks. The Trump bump has been is done, right? Now they've got all the information as far as, you know, the house is concerned. I talked to a client just got off a call a few minutes ago. I don't think that's a good thing as far as the market's concerned. The market doesn't like it when you've got a straight path to whatever buffoonery you want, either side of the aisle. You know me. I think both extremes are buffoons. But I think that, you know, that is something the market doesn't typically care for because things can change unencumbered, right? And that is not typically what the market likes a little more grid by. So my number says, you know, we bounce around. I think people are, you know, holding onto gold assets. I think gold week over the next couple weeks and months. But I think that the stock market, there are pockets that continue to do well as that rotation out of big cap tech. You get Nvidia later this month into other areas of the market continue. So more upside wouldn't be surprised to see some weakness in the first part of next year, but probably a buy an opportunity still really answer my question. How am I feeling? I said I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, but I think we're going to see some chop here pretty soon. You kind of hedging all your bets there, aren't you, trader? Well, I just, I'm not, I think we're in a healthy spot, right? I don't think you need to, oh my gosh, go sell everything or oh my gosh, go buy everything. I think the bulk of people are probably pretty much invested at this point. And I think you still have some safe runway in front of you. So it's more of an aggressively do nothing probably is what I'm saying. Yeah, I'm a bit more nervous than you. I have shared this. Yeah, I know I have been and I just, I'm concerned in regards to the price action that we're seeing intraday. We're not seeing everything come together. Now, I'm going to throw out last Wednesday, which was an anomaly with the 1500 plus point game the day after the election. I'm going to throw that out and just kind of kind of look at what we went through Thursday, Friday, which were phenomenal days. But then we get into this week. And I think you touched on a very important point, which is the Trump bump, you know, as we call it, it seems to be running out of energy at this point. And you know, you look at yesterday, for example, yesterday is a day that I think is going to go down in history. You know, poor Dwight Jason, you know, we had a, you know, what was it, a 12, 12 plus basis point increase on the 10 year treasury yesterday, we had the 30 year mortgage go back above 7%, 702 is where it closed at yesterday. And you know, as poor man's just like, what more are they going to throw at us? And you know, the topic of the show last night was we think rates can go higher. I really do. I think rates can go higher. You were just saying, you think they can go lower. I think they can go higher. And this was obviously before we got the news of, of sweep in the house. And I think they can go higher for a number of different reasons. Number one, the optimism that is out there, the optimism that we all have, of course, of how great this economy is going to be under the Trump administration and now a trifecta sweep. The optimism that, you know, the Fed is, is, you know, quasi still on our side slowly, but surely cutting interest rates. So this is going to be one of those situations, I think where there's almost too much good news. And so therefore, you know, these traders have got to dump these bonds, right? And I still think that inflation is not done. I still think inflation can raise its ugly head, especially if this economy starts to heat up. I, I, I know the Fed's going to do it in December. I mean, the odds are showing it at this point that we're going to get that quarter percent rate cut. But at the same time, I'm just wondering now if the Fed starting to go, Oh, you know, is this even the right thing to do? I mean, quarter percent again, as spitting in the wind, as we've always said, but you know, yesterday there was a 58.7% probability that we were going to get a quarter percent cut in December. Today it jumped up to 82.3, obviously because of the CPI data that we'll talk about. But I just feel like there's something strange going on in the internals of the market. You're having days where you're getting pretty good sell-offs like today and some of the major tech names. We just had an announcement from AMD after the close, they're going to lay out 4% of their workforce, not only about a thousand employees, but you know, still a thousand employees. And so, you know, again, I just feel a little bit different that it almost feels like we are primed at this point for maybe that one of those three to 5% pullbacks and then to your point, I'm with you 100% and then off to the record books again, you know, by the, by the time the end of the year rolls around. But I just don't know if this market has the, the, the gumption to, to continue to move up day after day. We saw a pretty good pullback in the Dow yesterday, nothing on the NASDAQ side hardly. NASDAQ today was down. Dow was up just slightly after being up a couple hundred points. We only finished with a 47 point gain. So, I'm just wondering again, how much conviction is truly still out there? I guess that's the point I'm getting across and hence that's what makes me feel a bit nervous at this point. I think, you know, kind of quickly before the break, remember the Fed is 175 basis points restrictive right now. Right. CPI, what, 2.6% today? You know, they're at four and three quarters. Normally when they're restrictive, they're in line with inflation. The Fed needs to bring down rates merely because of the fact that they are choking off parts of the economy. I agree with you that growth is there, but that's not a reason to sell. Right. Like, you know, I just think that interest rates will come down merely because of the fact that the Fed is still very restricted. But the Fed's out of the picture though. But their interest rates are still going to come down. Yeah, but as you and I both know, you know, I respectfully disagree because we know, look at what happened, what's happened to rates since we got the half a percent cut in September. We're up 80 basis points. That was before today, up 80 basis points since the Fed gave us a half a percent cut. Yeah, and remember an upward sloping yield curve is the correct way to be. We're now in what is a more normalized interest rate environment. You know, I just, I'm of the opinion that a lot of the move in bonds has been fairly capitulating. I think there's been folks who spurt moved out duration and got run over. And I think that is close to complete. That's my opinion. Yeah, I just think that inflation is going to rise again. And those traders, they don't in a rapidly increasing economy as many are anticipated. Lord knows who knows, i.e. the new Trump administration. The last thing they're going to want to do is be holding bonds and therefore they're going to be selling them as we saw yesterday. There's some unusual things yesterday, of course, going on, but they're going to sell those bonds, drive those yields up because we've got too good of an economy. So yeah, I think we're both right in a roundabout way that yeah, the Fed's going to continue cutting, but I don't think it's going to have any impact. I think overall the yields are going to be higher than, you know, by the end of the year than where we are now. So we time will tell. Yeah, absolutely tell. It's a bet. You bet you. It is. It is. Steak and lobster. That's perfect. Beautiful. Beautiful. Alright, started it over to Kristin so she's in the right now traffic center. Sorry for running late on your Kristin. How you doing? Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on his talk. 780k awaits with Jason got all right. Here's how we finished. Like I said, we had some pretty good strength earlier where we were trading up over 200 on the Dow finished just with a gain of 47. Of course, we had some periods where we were slightly negative. Nasdaq really can get much going on today. Finished down 50 points of 51 to be exact 0.26 percent to close at 19,230. The S&P just a one point gain to 5,985. Alright, now let's turn things over to the commodity side. Three tenths of a percent increase in oil, 68.41 a barrel, down seven tenths on gold, 25.87 10 an ounce and just a two basis point increase on the tenure at a yield close of 4.48 percent. Alright, what is this Goldilocks CPI report? Is it really true or is it not? That is our topic this afternoon that we want to get into because again, CPIs controlling the Fed and our inflation overall controlling the Fed, Fed's controlling interest rates, bond traders, so on and so forth. So it is a somewhat dry subject, but yet it is a very important subject. So Jason, let's go over the numbers once again as you touch down briefly and then let's move into some of the details why some are calling this a Goldilocks numbers. Others are saying this number is not looking too good. Alright, so listen closely folks, here we go. This is October's data by the way. So for the month of October, CPI rose two tenths of a percent month over month. That was in line with the Wall Street's expectation. You look at the year over year number up 2.6 percent. That was two tenths of a percent hotter than Wall Street's expectation. So I'm going to stop on that one before we get to the core where we strip out food and energy. It's a whole different set of numbers. So Jason, every time I see one of the CPI or PPI reports, I hear the little Jason Gaunt voice in my head saying, yeah, remember, this is up over last month and this is up over the previous month and so forth where we got to go back to, you know, when this whole inflationary issue began and it just slowly but surely keeps creeping higher. You know, we are not seeing inflation coming down really in any form or fashion. And people don't think much about it. It's two tenths here, two tenths there. But when you start to summarize it, it's a pretty good number that keeps moving higher and higher. And the tough part too, I think was 60 somewhat percent of the number was housing, right? Yes, right. And you know, those prices also are linked to the fact that interest rates, sort of as you mentioned, have gone higher. So the cost to borrow feeds into that calculation as well. So ironically, it's sort of a double, a double punch where prices are going up yet. The cost to borrow funds is going up at the same time. And, you know, that is really where a lot of it is aimed. I think demographics very much plays into it. We've talked about the millennials being as big as they are and forming families and buying homes and, you know, at least near term, I don't want to say immune, but not as sensitive to higher prices as one would think. But remember, if you're paying 7% on a loan, like, that's a big, big interest component inside of every payment. So, I mean, it's the, the, that part isn't probably going to wane anytime soon. But I mean, some of the exorbitant, you know, used car prices and things we saw back during COVID, at least have come down quite a bit. The food part's tough. The grocery bill doesn't seem to get a whole heck of a lot smaller. But you know, these are sort of long run numbers that at some point, if the economy does slow, that could help benefit some of these sort of price increases that we've seen. Here's my point, folks. You know, Jason, I have the data in front of us here. So, follow me just real briefly here. So, let's go back to June. Okay. So, June, and I'm talking again, this headline CPI number, June, inflation was down one-tenth of a percent month over a month. So, from obviously, May to June. Okay. So, that was, that was the last negative that we have seen, you know, from June on. Okay. Now, we go to July up two-tenths of a percent month over month, August up two-tenths of a percent, September up two-tenths of a percent, October up two-tenths of a percent. So, two-fourths, six-eight. So, you're up almost one percent, almost one percent, 80 basis points, essentially, just going back to June. And so, you know, if you look at it that way, my point, Jason, is you look at it that way, and then you go, yeah, this is why I'm not, you know, having a few extra bucks left over in my pocket, right? Again, the headline number says, oh, only up two-tenths of a percent. But again, go back to your theory, which is, you just got to keep adding it month after month, year over year. And that's where the real pain starts to come in. And so, back to the Fed, you know, again, we know the math of your logic of the Fed needing to cut rates because where inflation is and where the rates are. But, you know, but if you look at it, if you strip that part of it out and you go, you know what, is this really an economic environment where CPI keeps increasing month over month that the Fed needs to cut rates a quarter percent, or should, or should they do more or not do anything? I mean, that's going to continue to be the big debate as we get closer to December now. A really interesting chart from equityclock.com that I'll send over to you so you have it too. We're actually right in line with where we normally are seasonally, right? As far as CPI, remember, on average, we're looking to a two to two and a half percent inflation, right? So, at this point during the year, we're literally just skirting over the average number. 2023, way higher at this point to the tune of, you know, almost 4% at this point during the year, but it's the base effect, right? That we're up already and feeling what is now, I mean, rather, we're up already over the last couple years. Ironically, this is normal and we're just at a higher point. Does that make sense? Like, you know, any other year had we thrown out the last three and I know that's data mining, but I'm just saying, if we took out the last three, four years, we wouldn't be talking about this. This is a non-event. This is normal seasonal growth over time. You tend to see us peak out in September, October and November, December tends to see costs come in as far as the CPI is concerned. But, you know, it's just the fact that we're at such a, you know, a painful level for most folks because their real wages haven't increased. They haven't kept up with inflation on their paycheck. So, going to the grocery store, you're just seeing prices go up yet you're not seeing that number go up and you're, you know, net income every, you know, quarter, month or week or however you get paid. And so, that's the toughest part for sure. And one chart I'm looking at on a year over your basis is, you know, if you look at the chart, which Jason, I study charts, you know, it's what we do all day, you can see it's it's hooking up, right? It's going bottom left to upper right. It's starting to climb back up. And that's again the part that we get to be careful about that it doesn't sustain that upward trajectory. But no, I think that's a very valid point that you bring up. Once again, you know, then we go back over one more time to the, to the year over year number where this was the number again, that was a little bit hotter than expected. As I said up two tents, more than what everyone was looking for. So 2.6% and then you're going to get the camp, Jason, that we go, well, wait a minute here. That's still a long ways away from the feds target of 2%. But as you and I have said, and many of them Wall Street have said, it is going to take them a number of years to get back down to 2% if and when they even do. Like I said, how was this going to happen? Well, if you get a booming economy under the Trump administration, how is inflation going to come down? Certainly with tariffs it's going to come down. Sure. Yeah, it does it. It very much depends on what the effect of the tariffs are, right? Are they, do they stymie growth, right? Does that create a headwind in some parts of the economy that we're not aware of? Or does it just have a inflation effect? Are tariffs going to come into place immediately, right? And probably not. There's going to be more saber rattling and, you know, again, cool chart in here. I'll forward you for China that the effect on China actually isn't that much. It hurts more from Mexico and Canada and some of these other countries. So, but yeah, it's, it's one of those, like you say, we'll know later. Yes. Yeah, it's just things sound scarier now than they may be. Or again, we'll know later, is it much, much worse than we thought and, you know, to your point, inflation spirals higher. Yeah, yeah, we got it. All right, we come back. I want to break down the CPI. Some of the components, Jason mentioned briefly the food and the shelter side of it. I want to go into some more details on that so you can see where we sit in this inflationary data that we receive today. It's turned over to Greg Neff. He's got news traffic or weather. Hey, Greg, welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780 K08s with Jason gone as a co a quick reminder. Join us this evening. 630 p.m. for our next webinar, how the election results may impact your portfolio. Just go to our website at Sanchez wealth management.com. Click on the upcoming events tab. But your name in and join us again. 630 this evening. It's going to be phenomenal. Just so much information we've got ready for you. Just just going to be great. All right, let's get back to the market side of things and our favorite measure of inflation, the CPI. Not the feds, though. It's ours. 47 point gain on the dial is how we finished NASDAQ down 51 and the S&P just a one point gain there. You know, I'm going to go back to my concerns and then we'll come back to the CPI. One thing I forgot to mention, Jason, I know you watch this closely. Have you noticed that the the decliners have been leading the advances for the last few days also? Yeah, no, definitely. Yeah, I mean, the area that makes me the most concerned price, Sammies, right? Those are rolled over. They're, you know, pretty prominent head and shoulders there. Again, you have Nvidia on what the you know, that could that could cause a role. But, you know, I mean, they always seem to come out and beat and surprise everybody. But at some point, I feel like you're starting to hear the early edges of, you know, the amount we're spending versus what we expect to earn. I know it's more of a if you don't do it, you're going to be left behind. But feel out of, you know, little whispers here and there of Microsoft and meta and I feel like I hear some, you know, we may slow down a little bit and so and so forth. And that's why you had Nvidia today with a soft bank talking about building some super AI machine in Japan. And, you know, there's a lot of, I'd say a lot of fluff, not to say that it doesn't come through, but there's a lot of fluff. And that's where those are the areas that I probably get more concerned on as a, you know, a big flight of some kind, just because of it's a pretty crowded trade, like the number of people that, you know, I've owned Nvidia and I've made so much money. I mean, it's like, it's, okay, great. You know, everyone has. And so it's very crowded. So I just worry about, you know, crowds leave in a, leave in a room with one door. Oftentimes you get a little ugly. So I got it. I got it. I got to take a side step here. Let's just take a break off a CPI for a minute. So one of our very wonderful dear clients sent me a message during the break. I got to read this to you because you'll obviously love this. Let's see. Wonder verify the time of our webinar this evening, total number 630. So imagine this. He goes, okay, thanks. Nothing like a glass of wine sitting by the fire and listening to John and Jason as we fantasize about our wealth. And as I summarize our webinar this evening, can you just picture that? Hey, I'm jealous. I'm jealous. Jason needs a glass of wine while he talks to John. Yeah. Let's do that. We'll get a fire in the background through. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Technology these days with the crackling noise. I think our zoom background probably a fireplace is one of those options, right? Sure. We have it. Yeah. The first time I went with zoom started becoming popular during the, during the pandemic. And I was on a zoom call with one of one of our vendors. And I'm like, look at this gal's back. You know, her backdrop. I'm like, my God, she keeps it. I know who you're talking about. I remember that. Yeah, it's such a clean house and organized and that it will help beautiful man. She must make a lot of money and you can find out visual or, you know, the green stands up. You can see that there's like trash all over the place because of her green screen background. Yeah. Yeah, that's exactly right. Technology is never known. All right. So let's go back to our inflationary data. Once again, we're sticking with the headline numbers. The CPI will get to the core here in just a moment. But as we said, up to 10th of a percent month over month, you're over year up 2.6, two tenths, hotter than expected. We went back and we said, okay, go back to June down one 10th of a percent, but July through October, each month it is climb two 10th of a percent. So almost 1% culminating from the month of June. Now let's get down to some of the components. Jason touched on a couple of these. Let's go into some more detail. So the food index, something, of course, we all have to deal with food index was up two tenths of a percent month over month up about 2.1% year over year. Yeah, I think people can live with that one. Don't you agree? Yeah. Other than the fast food one, which is crazy. I know it's a lot more than that. No, I mean, again, the base effect is what hurts in all of these numbers is it feels like, you know, what would be normal isn't normal after things have gone up so much. Right. Right. Yeah. All right. Then we moved down to you touched on this. I want to go into more detail, the shelter side of things, right? This is very interesting folks. And this is why the street didn't get too upset about this hotter than expected year over year number because of the shelter side of things. Now, shelter index up four tenths of a percent month over month up 4.9% year over year. But Jason, they're just blaming higher rates. They're giving it a pass card. Go figure that one. Yeah. It's that that, you know, I mean, again, shortage of available housing doesn't feel like it around here. But, you know, there's lots of folks. We talked about millennials. They're buying houses. There's not enough houses out there. The rent choice isn't an easy one because some folks have mortgages on said rentals, right? And so those have costs that need to be spread on to renters. It's sort of darned if you do, darned if you don't, you can buy a house at a high rate or you can rent a house at a high rate. And it's, you know, it is why these prices are what they are exactly. Yep. Yep. You got it. The other component of the housing, of course, is the equivalent rent. It was up 4/10 of a percent month over month. And, you know, that one, you know, again, go back to June up 3/10, July at 4/10, up a half a percent in August up 3/10 in September and again up 4/10 in October. Back to your point about the rent side. I should mention there's, you know, essentially 12 components of the CPI report. I was doing some math during the break. Only three out of the 12 components were negative in the month of October. That is apparel down 1.5 percent, motor fuel down 9/10 of a percent, and education and communication down 3/10 of a percent. All of the other nine components were gains from the month of September. So thought that was a little interesting. Let's go to the vehicle side, right? There's been a lot of chocolate. We saw Rivian today do pretty well. They, they signed, they went up about 13 and a half percent, signed a deal with Volkswagen to use some of their technology, et cetera. So we'll give that stock a pop. But vehicle prices up 7/10 of a percent, almost 1% month over month. And that's another one. It was down 1% in June. So we thought we were starting to go down a little bit, dropped a little bit in July down 7/10, but then August had down to up 3 in September, but took a massive jump in the month of October up 7/10. My only logic on that one, maybe you got some input there, but I remember back to my GMAC days, you know, the dealers in October, they're getting all of the fresh, like in this case, 2025 models coming in. So they dropped the price of the 2024s and then that spur some sales activity. But, you know, people again are really starting to get some warnings from various, you know, you heard it from Ford and others are like, you know what, the affordability issue, this is going to have to be like, we're sitting on the show with the boys last night, Jason, how do you solve the housing issue? You create the 50 60 year mortgage as much as it pains me to say that because we're a payment driven society. I think it's the same thing on the vehicle side. Who in the heck can go out and afford 60, 70, 80 thousand dollar car? I mean, that's just kind of the norm nowadays. You know, for five or six years, I wouldn't be surprised at some point. We start to see a 10 year auto loan. I hope not. I mean, I mean, duration, loan on a depreciating asset, at least houses appreciate, right? They're going to make more of your car. Yeah, yeah. Price will go down at some point. But yeah, it is, it is, I mean, again, it's all the inputs that go into them. They're obviously very technologically heavy. It's not dissimilar to the biotechs, right, where they have to charge exorbitant prices for drugs because of all the work that they've had to do and all the scientists that go into building it out. These cars are like, you know, they're robots at this point. They're not, you know, exactly. They're not just, you know, a steel motor and aluminum side. They're, yeah, they're all this testing and computers and software and probably is, my Gordy is not. Yeah, I got to work on this right where hub has a little wobble to it. It looks like it was going to fall off. 1966 international scout. Yeah, scouts coming out with a new EV car. Pretty cool. It doesn't, uh, probably not going to get it, but it is cool. That's a real car. Yeah, no catalytic converters. Not perfect. Nothing to steal. Exactly right. Leave the keys in it. People like not good. Exactly. No, that's okay. Yeah. Take me. No, that's okay. Not the way you had that thing. All right. Motor fuel down nine tenths over percent for the month. So there was a little bit of a break there. Medical care, about three tenths. Education and communication down three tenths. Now, let's get down to the, we're not out of time quickly here. When we come back, we'll get down to the core. That's where we strip out food and energy and get to some, some more numbers there month over month, year over year. Then we'll begin to wrap things up. Let us wrap it up, speaking of which with a wonderful Kristin Snow in the right now, traffic center. Hello, Kristin. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on his talk, 780 KOH, which would Jason got one more time as a reminder how the election results may impact your portfolio. That is the topic of our webinar and just a few short hours, 6 30 p.m. We invite you to join us. Just go to our website at sancheswolfmanagement.com, click on the upcoming events tab, put in your name and you'll be ready to go as you get your invite. Cannot wait. We're going to be again talking about how the markets historically respond to a election. Some key sectors that we feel may shift a bit as we get into this post election cycle, the potential impact of taxes, interest rates, and as we've been discussing all night, the inflation side of things. And then again, most importantly, some actionable steps to help protect and grow your portfolio. And these exciting, but yet, nobody can argue, Jason, these are going to be uncertain times, right? We, we've never gone through something like what we're about to go through. And it's exciting and it's fearful. It's all the emotions tied into one. And we hope to make some sense out of it tonight on the webinar. Yeah, we're definitely going to help out, you know, give some, some ideas, some advice. But you know, like, like you've mentioned, I mean, the path is not clear, right? We've had a good conversation around the direction of interest rates, right? Those are going to be very important to interest rates go down because people buy bonds because the market goes down. Do interest rates go up because people sell to buy stocks is there's still a lot of different cross currents. So it'll be a very good call. We've got a bunch of interesting slides to share. And do we do? Indeed, we do. All right, I want to real quickly, let's just wrap up the headline, or excuse me, the core. And then I want to go back to something I think, you know, probably need to do a whole show on this, maybe on Friday or something. And that is the Republican suite now, right? We again, NBC News announced this afternoon. They said Republicans have now got the house, so again, a trifecta. But before we get to that real quickly, to wrap up the show, once again, core, strip out food and energy, a little bit hotter than the overall headline. And it was up three tenths of a percent. That was in line with expectation year over year, sitting with about a about a 3.3% increase there again, in line. Now, you brought up something at the beginning of the show. And again, I think we need to do an entire show on this. And I know we'll be talking about it tonight. What does this trifecta really mean? Why? Why did you say at the beginning of the show, this could actually be bad? Because I think a lot of people are confused at that point. Yeah, so the market likes when nothing happens, right? To know that you're going to have gridlock, that no one can pass any legislation one way or the other that could affect a bet. In this case, when you have all blue or all red, oftentimes that tends to be negative for the markets, because now they have uncertainty. Some large change could occur, be a tax policy, be it geopolitical policy. Who knows? We've seen both of them have free reign and things change, right? And so that is oftentimes why the markets like gridlock, all the things we had going into the election, the best results were blue, red, red, blue, not blue, blue, red, red, red. So that's why I say that. Yeah, that's 100% correct. So it'll be interesting. I'm watching the features. I've not seen really big pop since that news came out. So be interesting to see what the reaction is tomorrow, if there is any in the market. All right. Thanks, everybody. We'll do it again tomorrow on the John Sanchez Show. See all at 6 30 this evening. Have a great one, Jason. See you soon. 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