For the ones who work hard to ensure their crew can always go the extra mile, and the ones who get in early, so everyone can go home on time. There's Granger, offering professional grade supplies back by product experts so you can quickly and easily find what you need. Plus, you can count on access to a committed team ready to go the extra mile for you. Call, clickgranger.com, or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. Thanks for watching! [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] And we are about coming off a big week at the Masters. It's pretty hard to decide who the best player in the world is right now, huh? Scotty Shuffler, absolutely dominant. I think the only concern that we have about Scotty right now moving forward is when will his wife go into labor and pull him off the course? Because if he's playing, I have to assume he is going to win the tournament. David, how you doing tonight? I'm good, mate. I'm good. Yeah, look, just an incredible performance from Shuffler, and I think it does a discrete it to him if we refer to it as inevitable, because that really takes away from what he achieved. And it felt inevitable before the tournament. It felt inevitable day one when he was one shot off the lead. It felt inevitable on Sunday. A little bit of a shame that after eight holes, there was four players tied for the lead there. And I was like, okay, we're going to have a real battle down the stretch. Any of these guys could potentially come and take it out. And then he just ran away with it. I mean, minus five across nine holes and just absolutely put the foot down. And as much as people would like to say that that's an inevitability, like the golfer still needs to go out on the golf course and produce the goods and do it right. And I thought that was incredibly impressive from him. And yeah, just he's an insane talent, obviously. I think that we all understand what he's doing now. One of the Arnold Palmer, one of the players championship. Second in Texas. And he had a part at the last hole from seven feet, which he missed to go to a playoff and then wins the Masters. I mean, what a golfer. And like, you know, there's a world where we've seen guys go on runs and they squeak out wins. Like he dominated. And that was, that couldn't have wasn't even any question. That was just dominant. And, you know, and at the end, any point where you thought, Hey, maybe he's going to choke or maybe something like that. And just hit the perfect shot after perfect shot puts it right where you need it. Never flat, never even looked nervous. Like he had a chance of choking or anything like that. We're seeing something very special right now. And this is rare air. You know, I'm not going to go as far as to say it's Tiger Woods esque because Tiger basically was like this for like 10 years straight. But it's like, right after the Tiger, it's like, I can't compare it to anything else that we've seen. It's, it's truly, truly unbelievable. And it's exciting and fun to be a part of. So we have another tournament this week. And it's another elevator. So it is a little odd that we're getting an elevated event right after the Masters. You kind of would have thought they would have separated. That way they didn't, which means more exciting golf for us, more for us to go out there and win and more excitement for this show. So I think it's fine. It's great for us to get into it. A few things to settle on before we dive into things. Audience, great job last week. You guys won in the draft case. You guys will be getting the first pick again. I don't know who you guys might think about taking this time, but I had an idea who I would take if I had the first pick. That is for sure. It's just going to be a three man draft tonight. Spencer couldn't make it. See, obviously could make it tonight. So it'll be the three of us going through this field. And David is going to give us the course breakdown, which is especially important this week because it's a unique course and it's a unique. Profile of golfer that you might want to target in order to have success here this week. So David enlighten us. What are you looking for this week at Obviously Heritage? Yeah, thanks Joel. Yeah, look, I think that with this golf course, right? And easy to mention SEC about the signature event. I think the PGI 2 means having a really difficult spot with this tournament because it isn't a star golf course and historic stop on the PGI 2. It's been played after the Masters for the last 40 years. Arnold Palmer won the first edition of the tournament. Jack Nicholas, obviously, is involved with the history of this tournament as well. So there's a lot of prestige and legacy when it comes to this golf course. And it kind of puts the PGI 2 in a difficult spot where I don't think they really had any other option other than to make it a signature event. One, because of the history and legacy and the fact that it's always kind of been the week after the Masters. It's a place that the golfers really like to actually come down to after the Masters kind of chill out a bit when they get to Harvard town and Hilton Head and relax a little bit after a pretty intense week. You've also got one of the biggest sponsors of the PGI 2. RBC who obviously don't just sponsor this tournament. They sponsor a number of tournaments on the PGI 2. They have to keep their sponsor happy. That's the PGI 2. Unlike other tournaments in the world of golf, PGI 2 actually have to run a business and it has to be fine. And it has to be viable and that includes keeping your sponsors happy. And finally, I think that you've got to capture all of the guys who who all these new fans who come in, watch the Masters. They want to see what Scotty Sheffler is doing, lead him with another big event, make the most of the strike when the iron top basically. And that's what they're doing here. So it is an incredibly strong field. 69 players, nice to see in the field this week. Nice small field though and not many additions. I would have liked to have seen this a little bit bigger. But it does mean that you do have to restrict your player pool. You are going to see some inflated ownership in places because of that. You are also... I can ask you a quick question because I need to know. What's your nice comment intentional to be funny? Or is that just a coincidence? Okay. It's a nice number Joel. It's just a nice number that we like to point out occasionally. And no car, no car either. So all of your golfers are going to get four rounds. And typically when it comes to that sort of recipe at an elevated like that, I like to keep my DFS pool really tight. And I do like to go to a build which favours stars and scrubs approach because once you're guaranteed getting four rounds out of after these guys, you do expect the cream is going to rise to the top by the end of the tournament. In saying that, and you mentioned this in the lead into my spiel about the course. This is a really quirky, tough test. And it does suit a really particular type of golfer. So if there ever was a signature no-cut event where you wanted to stray from that stars and scrubs approach, it could well be here. It's got one of the largest correlations to driving accuracy to success here. Not just because of the very narrow nature of the course, but even when you find the fairway, you have these overhanging trees that can really impede your second shot. So not only are you just trying to find the fairway, you're trying to find the right side of the fairway to make sure that you've got your ankle into the greens. The greens are minuscule. They're only 3,700 square feet. As a result of that, you see a huge uptick in strokes going around the green. If you look at our two past champions, Jordan, Smith, Patrick, what do they both do really well? They're both incredibly good with their short game around the green bunker play putting. So all of those around the green soft touch metrics really come into play on this golf course. The other thing I mentioned is because of this interesting nature of the course, everyone ends up playing kind of similar spots. And it's kind of similar to people beach in that regard, although quite a different test. They all end up paying similar yardages. And something really noticeable for me is in the approach metrics, what we expect them to be hitting. You're going to see on average only 2 shots over 200 yards for golfers this week. That is like the lowest that you will see on the PGA Tour all season. Typically it's around 4 to 5, maybe 6, depending on the golf course, particularly places like Quail Hollow, which are going to link heavily on your long irons. The fact that you're only getting 2 shots over 200 yards is really market. And then under 100 yards you're only getting typically 1 wedge shot. So everything is basically falling within that 100 to 200 yard bucket, particularly 150 to 200 yards. And that's a result of players laying up off the tee, finding safety, finding the fairway, the right portion of the fairway. Really targeting those approach buckets. I think this key this week and then players who have an excellent short game because you will miss greens. And when you miss greens you either need to be getting up and down for a birdie or to save power and keep them in momentum going. There you have it. I think more importantly than most weeks, this is a particularly one to definitely listen up, understand the metrics that are required for this course and do your research to know which golfers fit the profile. Because that's where you really get an edge. And David made a really good point. This isn't the same as any other week and the fact that it's a no cut of F is only 70 golfers. That changes the strategy, right? Because now I think as David said, it does make God stars and scrubs approach even more viable because everyone's playing all day. You don't have to worry about missing the cut. So if a guy's a good score, you can afford a blow up day and still have that guy in a winning lineup. With that being said, let's pull the draft board audience. Congratulations. You guys will get the first pick because of having your great draft last week. Can you keep the hot momentum going here at the RBC? I'll blow this way. Audience, I'll say you are on the clock. So we're waiting for the pick. You also can pick who will go second. Whoever is name you put in the chat first between me and David, we'll get the second pick. The other one of us will get the third. So we'll just wait, which is when drops one of our names. That's what we'll be going second. As we wait for that, I will remind everyone. This works like your typical Finacy Football Directed Snake style. Audience, you'll go first. One of us will go second. One of us will go third. The third pick will get two in a row. That's it. You go. So David will go second. I will go third. I'll get two in a row and then we will come back. Audience, you will get two starting in the second round and beyond. The one thing to keep in mind is you do need to stay within your draft team salary. So it looks like the audience first picked a Scotty Scheffler kick. Complained about that. That's a great pick. With Scotty Scheffler being the pick, keep in mind the rest of your picks have to figure out a way to make sure you can afford and find some value so that you can stay within your draft team's salary. The only thing you have to factor in here is how you're going to build your lineup with Scotty Scheffler in the world. He's playing just unbelievable right now. I guess it's coming down with his price being so high that you kind of do need him to win the tournament probably to be worth it, but I would say he's likely to win another tournament. So I will be playing starting, but I probably won't be playing as much as of him this week as you would think, particularly because of how you have to build your lineup by having an in there at that price tag. And basically even I would say even a third place at that price might not be in the winning lineup. So he's playing great, you know, obviously in the three men, that would be my pick. David, you're on the top of your first pick, but I love your take on Scotty this week as well. I'd say this is going to be somewhat controversial when I say that this. I'm surprised with the extremely high ownership with Scotty Scheffler this week. He's currently 41%. Now that might seem absurd to say for a golfer who's just gone win, win, second win. But we also know that back home, he's got Meredith Scheffler sitting on the couch about to explode at any time and bring his first offspring into the world. He already committed to the Masters even on Sunday that he would fly home if that were to happen. And I thought as a result of that, we might actually see some depressed ownership here. He's just one of the Masters, he's getting closer and closer to due date for baby number one. And if anything were to happen at home, I have no doubt that he will be hopping on a plane and heaving out of here. And so I think there's actually some real withdrawal equity here this week with Scotty Scheffler off the basis of that. And all that's happened with his ownership is it's gone up another 10% and his salary's gone up too. And so I guess my question comes, if his ownership had been low as a result, I probably would have taken the opposite start. It'd be like you just load up Scheffler because he couldn't win just every single tournament this year and like these playing at the head level. But because his ownership's so high, I kind of want to take a contrarian stance this week and say, well, you know what, if he doesn't play all four rounds, then I'm getting huge leverage on the rest of the field. And I mean, he could, he could WD tomorrow, he could WD Thursday morning and you get nothing from him. I'm aligned with your thought process on it. I think if he creeps up over 40% then I'm going to come way off. I mean, I won't say zero because to your point it wouldn't shock me at all if he won the tournament again. So I'll have some exposure to him, but at 40% it won't be high. I think there's just value to fade. And to your point, the way they were talking about his wife, there's a, you know, a pretty high probability he ends up leaving this week and not even playing. So if that would mean if he left and didn't finish the weekend and 40% of the people played him, that is a huge leverage spot. So just something to keep in mind in terms of, don't forget, this is, you know, DFS is a betting game and it's a gambling game. And you know, if you play poker, you know, the concept of pot odds, this is that same concept, right? The odds are everyone's playing them. If you can get value by not, then obviously he's the best player, but this means the game to you. Yeah, for sure. And like, so I just take that stance this week and look, it probably made me look silly when he goes and wins the thing on, on Sunday. But I think that these real Miss, well, not Miss Carter, you could eat his real withdrawal equity with Scotty Cheffler this week. And I think given the ownership number that I'm seeing the moment, I'm getting 41 and a half. That that probably means that I'm going to be lower on Scotty Cheffler than most people this week. I'm going to lead out this week with a golfer who is yet to win on the PGA Tour. But his one copious numbers of tournaments on the DP World Tour has been in great form, showed up last week at the Masters without really being in it. So I've got less fear for him about the tiredness and hangover of being in the contention of battle. There's Tommy Fleetwood. Tommy Fleetwood breaks really highly for me. So finished third last week. As I said, it was never kind of in the heat of battle. He was just kind of there or there abouts all week, but it was an extremely strong showing and really tough conditions. If I look at comparison courses where accuracy was really key and those key iron metrics were in play. Obviously, Canadian Open 2023 at Oakdale was one of those courses. Nick Taylor obviously won that event for us at 80 to 1. It was an amazing event with the playoff with Tommy Fleetwood. But Tommy Fleetwood was right there all week and then he thought he was going to go on and win that tournament. He's finished 15th and 10th and his last two starts at the opposite heritage. He also finished fifth in the match play just outside of the semifinals at Austin Country Club. That's another Pete Dye design and he's got a good record at TPC River Highlands as well. So another TPC course, but Pete Dye also had a high end in that one as well. So I'm really liking the correlation form. He's been hitting the ball a lot better. He's one of the most accurate drivers in the field. He's one of the best around the green in the field. All hitting the key metrics that I'm looking at this week. I think he's a fabulous beat and his ownership is getting a little bit high. I'm seeing about 22%. But obviously, if you're not taking shape with your first pick, you're already getting different to the majority of these players this week. I love it. I love it. I love it. I think that strategy is certainly understandable here on your first pick. It also maybe slightly changes your strategy in terms of a three man because there's only three of us. So how you kind of mind the process Jeff could be slightly different than versus a four man. I did think how much price was a little high this week, but that kind of becomes a mute point when you're playing a non Scottie Scheffler lineup. Now you're just kind of building different ways to get different. So I certainly do see a lot of upside there with Tommy Fleetwood. For my two, I'm pretty locked in. The first one shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. There's a few weeks where I kind of go back to this guy. And this is definitely one of them in Patrick Cantley. You know, Cantley has a excellent reputation on this course. He's got a great history here. There was to be a course that he plays very well in terms of his form. You know, it's not the best form we've seen from Cantley over the last few weeks, but I do think this is a get right spot for him. I think he looks to get back on this course. He looked a little bit better last week. And I think we see a top five finish from him. I'm going to pair Cantley with Cameron Davis. And this is the type of course where I really like to target a guy like Davis, who's going to club down. He'll find his fairway. He's another guy that has a great course history. He tends to have good results at this course. And I think is a value place, one of my favorite values on the board. He is coming in in better form. He's had a few good results recently trending in the right direction. I think this is a spot where he's his trajectory is pointing him to the top 10 this week in the seven K range. I think he makes a ton of sense. And then the issue with him is he'll probably be chalky in those Scotty Scheffler milks, but I don't have Scheffler. So I'm already different by doing it that way. So I have no problem with that start. David, you're on the clock with your second pick. I would love your take on Cantonie and Davis first. Yeah, I think they're really interesting, interesting picks, Joel, because you touched on them being chalky. But I'm surprised that both of them are at the ownership that we're seeing. So Cantonie at the moment, I'm getting around 21%. That's less than Ludwig Aubert. That's less than Tommy Fleetwood within that range. That's less than Sander Scheffler. And Patrick Cantonie's record here is phenomenal. I mean, he loves Arbusy heritage. Yes, he's never won it. But at Harvard town, he's gone third second, Miss Cutt, third, third, seventh. So, I mean, outside of one, Miss Cutt, he's never finished Western seventh here in his last five appearances. So his course for them just speaks for itself. And the fact that he's lower owned than some of the names around him, I find really surprising. And the same with Cam Davis as well. I mean, I'm getting 12% on Cam Davis, which honestly in the field of 69 players, nice, is that I would have thought that was going to be a lot higher for someone who is just such an excellent record at this golf course. As you said, he's typically one of these players who plays better at these club down spots. He's played here three times, finished 25th on debut, then a third and a seventh. If you look at courses like Siegefield, for example, another like Pete Dye design, short, accurate golfers of one year, Tom Cam is going to be very popular this week. Obviously one there as well. He's finished 22nd, 15th, seventh. Austin Country Club, he's played well as well in a match play. So he just seems like a really obvious choice. And again, at 12%, I'm surprised that their ownership number is what it is like. He's lower owned than JT Posten, for example, who's even more expensive than him. So I think they're both very, very solid picks and happy with the way that you've started your card here. I'll even add one thing on that. Ownership in this because it's a no cut 70, 69 man field should be higher than normal. So we should be expecting a little bit of boost to the ownership number that we normally would see. So if you're already feeling okay with the number, you should feel really good about it at this point. Absolutely. Yeah. So I'll come in right here with my, my net spec. Again, I'm going to go. So I'm going to go down to that 7K range, just like you've done. I'm going to take Harris English at 7500. He's got one of the best short games in the game around the green and putting his, like, the fundamentals of Harris English. And outside of a miscut at the Texas Open, his record recently has been 70. The Phoenix Open, seventh of the Genesis, 21st of the Arnold Palmer, 19th of the players, and he's just come off a 20 second place finish at the Masters. He ticks a lot of the boxes for me. He's a winner at TPC River Highlands, which is another peak die design. Again, accuracy is a really big factor at TPC River Highlands. And if you go back far enough, he's had some good results here. He finished eighth on debut. And I just feel that Harris English is a more talented golfer than this price is giving him. Obviously he had a bit of time out of the game. And I think that's, he's slipped out of the sphere of a lot of people's minds as a result of that. And that's all promising for me. I'm only getting 8% ownership on him. I think he should be much higher, given the upside potential that I see for him. He's one of the lowest actually within that 7K range for me at the moment. And I find that absurd for a golfer. He's just like stringing top 25s against really high caliber fields together. On a course that I think is actually the best fit of all the courses he's played in recently. I love the fact that Harris English is a staple in my value plays every week this year. I mean to your point that you've made, this is a guy who coming up would have been a 9K golfer weekend week out. He had some injuries, he hadn't played for a while. And you know, people kind of lost trust in him, he dropped the tears. He seems to be regaining that form. And I think by the end of the season, I think he's going to be a staple in the high 8K range moving forward. Because I'm seeing it become more consistent. And now we know this isn't like, "Oh, he's rising." He was there before. He was this good injury that set him back. I think the healthy Harris English is starting to show. So right now if he's going to stay in that 7K range, he's going to be a value play. I'll be looking at often this season. Audience, great job getting your two in. I love one of them. I'm not so sold on the other. Lucas Glover and Adam Spencer. Lucas Glover, I am definitely endorsing. I think Glover is one of my favorite 6K value range plays. He's another one that's been playing well. He's got that kind of questionable pattern where the pattern is rolling. You love Glover. He's striking the ball well. You can really compete. If the pattern is not rolling, he might give you some issues. But at 6K, definitely a shot worth thinking. Adam Spencer, I wasn't as high on. I'm probably not playing much of him myself this week. Well, I love the feedback from you David. Are you playing Spencer or Glover at all this week? So first on Glover, I really like the play. He's clearly underpriced at 6,800. I'll talk briefly about that 150-200 approach range that I mentioned at the top of the show, giving the course preview. As I mentioned, nine approach shots out of, you know, 14, assuming the par threes are going to be in that 150-200 yard range. So in this field, since January 1st this year, the best one approached from 150-200 yards is Scotty Sheffler, marginally ahead of Will Zallatoris, marginally ahead of Corey Connors, who's marginally ahead of Lucas Glover. So that's a really key range for him where he's producing a lot of output. He's also very good between 100 to 150 yards of that complements in there. The continuum with him always comes down to the pattern. On these smaller greens, I think the advantage for him is going to be that he's not going to need to have too many lag parts. Like it's really going to be within that kind of 10-foot circle that majority of that padding output is going to be. He's began to dain again with his putter. Like, I mean, we saw last week at the Masters, he gained nearly four strokes of putting. So really promising sign for him on a course where the greens were just like lightning fast, like some of the fastest greens that I've ever seen at Augusta National. He's a past champion at Setfield as well. So if you go far enough back in his history as well, he's played well at Harper Town. So do really like that play. To help us see ownership, I think, is manageable given the output that you're getting from him. With Spencer, I'll give the audience some credit for the fact that he is going to be lower owned than a lot of the options down that range. This is the flaw that you're going to get with these Scottish airflip builds. As if you're taking the guy who's 13,300, you are going to have to go down into the 6K range to go and find some salary relief. And that's clearly what the audience have done here and taken Spencer. Of all the options that they could have taken in that range, he's probably one of the better just because he is going to be lesser owned than, say, Ecuador will put them right next to him. They're going to attract quite a bit of ownership. Glover is quite clearly the highest owner that range. But as I mentioned, that's kind of a good reason. My concern with Spencer comes down to the fact that he loses on putter consistently. He's only gained once in his last 15 or so starts in a significant way. And then his around the green game is not that sharp either as well. So he takes the metrics in terms of approach and driving accuracy. I just come to question if he is going to be missing a few greens here in the year. What's his ability to get up and down because I think that's really key around half a town golf links? Yeah, that's a really good point. All right, well, audience, you did find a way to kind of leave yourself some money left on your last three picks in getting some value in your lineup. David, you have about 8K per pick left. Who are you looking at here with your fur? Yeah, so I'm going to go and grab a golfer called Christian Biseydinhout in honor of model maniac Byron, his fellow South African. Biseydinhout has been in great form, doesn't have the Masters hangover is unfortunately not in the field. But before that was 25th at the Texas Open, 9th at the Bals Bar, 13th at the Players Championship. TPCU sawgrass also designed by Pete died by the way. I really like the approach numbers that we're getting from Biseydinhout lately. It's off the charts what he's been doing on approach this year. He hasn't necessarily got the results to really pay back what the approach numbers suggest. He's also a very, very good putter. That's going to be a benefit for him as well. Games on approach around the greens, sorry, consistently. Games around the greens on his last four starts with the driving accuracy. I think this is a really good spot for him. Honestly, I was going to take it with my next pick. So I love the pick. Someone I was targeting as well. He's another guy that's just outperforming his price tag this year. He's playing really good golf. They should be, of course, that suits him really well. So definitely a guy I will be targeting this week as well. All right, I got two here and I do have to be because I really was going to take him there. So I'm going to start with my next two. I'm going to go with first, Akshay Batia. I'm going to go back to that well. Akshay has looked great. Even last week at the Masters, he gave you a decent finish. It wasn't great, but let's not really fault him. The Masters is a unique test. He got you a 35th, which I think is fine considering how unique a test was. But let's not have to short term memory the week before he won the letter of. He was 11 that he used to open the game. Eight strokes ball tracking in both those tournaments. I think he is another showing of great ball striking on display this week. If you can land on these greens and make a few pots, I think you can have a really good result again at under a K. And I'm going to also pair him with another guy who has a great history here. You know, he's obviously won this tournament last year and that's not Fitzpatrick. He's another guy who's, you know, we haven't been talking about him a lot this year. He's kind of been flying around the arena, but if you sneakily look at the last three tournaments he's played in, he would fit up the players, tend up the ballero, and he was 22nd at the Masters. So he's in good form and this is a course that he's coming back to that he likes. So this is one that we expect a good result from Fitzpatrick with that positive momentum and trajectory heading into a course that's kind of built and made for him. I think you get another really great result from Fitzpatrick. So, 9600, I would thought was a little high, but I think that he certainly has the upside to pay off that price tag. David, I'm going to you are Fitzpatrick or Batia on your radar. Yes, well, there's only two of us, Joel. So I guess that you should go to me because I'm the only person who can comment on the pecs. Look, I'm not going to be on Batia at all this week. My concern comes down to what he's been able to produce on similar courses. So we're looking at things like Harbitown, Oakdale, which I mentioned, Segefield. He's played those courses five times. He's only made the cut once and he finished 68th at the Canadian Open. I think that he's much better suited to courses where you can use driver. It is the strongest club in his bag. He's very, very long off the tee. He can be really accurate with it as well. And I like the fact that on those golf courses, he can use his biggest asset to his strength. Just to find here that he won't be able to use that club to its full advantage. If he produces the approach numbers that he was in the lead up to that Texas Open, you can expect a stronger showing perhaps. But I just wonder if these perhaps better spots for Batia as a result of that. I mean, you're not going to get a hell of a lot of ownership on Batia this week. So in terms of leverage, if he can come out and just like absolutely pull strike the hell out of it, never miss any greens, you might get some value there. In terms of Fitzpatrick, I think that's a really savvy play. I don't think he's got to be on many people's radars given the fact that he finished 22nd last week losing strokes on approach. And he's been doing a lot putting recently, but we just know what a good putter map fits Patrick is, right? And it kind of comes down to, like I've spoken about this previously with golfers like Dining the Carthy and Taylor Montgomery. It's like some golfers are just really good putters, you know. We've just got to accept that they are going to make their strokes gain putting. And the kind of flies in the face of other models that we'd use for predicting the future success of golfers. Looking for guys who have maybe underperformed putting, we expect to spike. Man Fitzpatrick is one of the best in the game with his short game. He's got strong links to Harbour Town as well. He used to come here on holiday as a kid. He mentioned that when his victory last year. And yeah, if you can get the defending champion like reasonably low ownership, I'm only getting like 16%. I think that's really savvy play. There you have it. All right, David, you got your fourth pick here. You got money to spend 8,300 average. Who you looking at? What direction you looking to go? Yes, I'm going to go and take Corey Connors at 8,300. I mean, if you're looking at elite ball strikers who are very accurate off the tee, Corey Connors is always going to be a name that comes to mind. He hasn't lost on approach since the Open Championship in 2023. So he's consistently gaining on approach against some of the best in the world. He's ranks really highly within that 150 to 200 yard approach bucket, which I really like. The most promising thing for me with Connors is he gets criticized consistently for his around the green and this padding game. He's gained strokes, padding at the Masters, as I mentioned, some of the fastest greens that we'll probably see all year. Certainly the fastest that I can remember at the Masters in recent memory. They were at extremely high speeds last week. You also gained padding at the players, as I mentioned, peak diet design, finished 13th year. And he's been about field average around the greens of late, which for Corey Connors is a positive. So the fact he's playing in these elite fields, not losing too much around the greens. So I mean to gain padding and he's one of the best ball strikers, one of the most accurate drivers in the game. I really like those correlations. He's finished due to the match play as well, another peak diet design, near the fourth year in 2021. So I do like his regard. And I think he goes a little bit under the radar compared to how we should be treated this week. Oh, I love it. I love it. I agree. You see profiles on someone that should find success at a course like this. You know, coming off the big weekend of Masters, you know, it's certainly reasonably priced. So I'm totally fine with the Connors play. I also have to give my respects to team audience who is killing it. We're getting their picks in super quick. Zach, I appreciate you shephering along and hitting the lock. Jordan, Simon, and Assassin appreciate the help. Two picks, Cam Young and Pavon. Is it Cam Young yet? It's Cam Young. Interesting thing, you know, Cam Young doesn't profile as the type of guy that you want here. Certainly playing well. I think the price is fair. I can see why you might want to play a guy like Cam Young because of the pro bubble. I just wasn't going to target him this week, but I can see how that could pay off for you guys. So I'll pass it to you, David. Are you playing either Pavon or Cam Young this week? So I've been having this debate for about three months with a friend of mine that I respect very much in the tipping space Titanic gambler. He's a very, very hot game betting tipster. And we chat on to school quite often together. And he thinks that this is the perfect spot for Matthew Pavon. And I've been taking the opposite stance. I've kind of always suggested that the best place for Matthew Pavon has been some of these long driving golf courses. And that came to fruition at the Torrey Pines at the Farmers Insurance Open when he won for us at 125 to one. Look, he has produced on some of these shorter courses. Sony Open comes to mind. I didn't think it was the best course fit for him. He played really well. He finished seventh. He finished third at the People Beach. Bear in mind, only a 54 hole tournament. There was some weather involved. It was kind of a weird, weird spot that week. I just think that Pav is on a course where he gets to use driver a little bit more often. It's going to be my preference for Pavon moving forward. He might come out and surprise me. He has been within this kind of top 20 golfers in the world this year. Like he's been playing incredible golf. So I'll give him that credit. But I'm still waiting to see on Pavon and just really want to figure out how he's going to play some of these shorter, more fiddly courses on the PGA Tour. As we came young, I mean, he finished third here in 2022 and he was runner up at Austin Country Club. Another P dive design. Really kind of like driving accuracy fiddly golf course. And there's less trees in play at Austin Country Club, but there's water involved. And that kind of dictates where you want to play in terms of the fairways. And he played really well there. Obviously, he's been in better form lately. He was second at the Vousbar, showed up with a knife at the Masters. I'm kind of at the same frame as you. He was like outside of the fair place at the heritage. He's never really showing up at many of these other comp courses that I would expect to see him at if he was kind of the Cam Davis model that you took a long driver who actually benefits from taking the driver out of his hand more often. And finding some accuracy off the tee and can dial in on approach. So again, similar kind of answer to Pavon. I don't know if it's the best spot with Cam Young. The third might suggest otherwise, but there's probably other spots that I would look to deployment. There you have it. All right, David, you're up here with your fifth pick. You have the most money left to spend. Let's see what strategy take and utilize on this pick. Yeah, so I'm going to take Shane Lowry here at 8500. 15% ownership. I was surprised to see it at that kind of level. I would have expected a little bit more given he's been one of the best ball strikers in the world over these last kind of five, six starts was insanely good on approach at the Masters lost like everything starting was incredibly frustrating because he was within our tips that the Masters given his great record at their golf course there. And he will struck the hell out of it and just couldn't find a pattern. That's the risk that you run with someone like with someone like Shane Lowry, but he's gaining like between six to eight strokes on approach consistently every single tournament that he's that he's teeing it up in the round the green game has been really good for him Chatham is promising. It's just really going to depend which, which part of turns up in saying that he's typically putted really well here. So he's got a third and ninth and a third again in 2022 at this golf course. So he's played really well, found a success on these screens. And he's only lost strokes putting here once admittedly that was his last appearance, but out of his five starts, six starts here, five of them. He's gain strokes putting and usually in a big way. And I think that he's striking the ball better now than he was previously in his other appearances. So really like him here, especially if the wins get up a little bit in which they can do in the seaside location. I like it. I like that pick. I certainly will endorse that one. Shane will be in my play. Well, he can get another guy that to me in this field he feels like I guess I also it's fairly priced. I was going to lead to maybe even underpriced at this field. He certainly is a guy in the eight K range upper possesses a lot of upside so he'd be someone I wouldn't want to target. All right, for my last two here I got in the seven K range and make this work. I want to start with Taylor Moore, who has been playing excellent golf as a recent, and he's been doing it for a pretty consistent stretch. I mean he was second at the Houston Open. He had 20th at the Masters, 12th at the vast bar, but even looking before that he's been on a stretch of, you know, top 40s. He's been in the top 40s for a few tournaments before that so I think he's kind of peeking at the right time. At 7400 the price is right is one appearance here before he was T 11 so he's he's played well here before. I'm totally fine with the price I actually probably would say he's probably a little bit underpriced from my liking ownership a little bit high for what he is but I'm seeing about 14% right now which which I'm okay with with playing. I'm going to pair him with JT posted, who you know is not coming in with the best form for what we see JT posting was playing spectacular golf at the beginning of the year he's significantly slowed down over the last month or two. But I think this is the get right spot for him this is a course where he has a fantastic course history. He's showing up here I mean he missed the cut last year. He was a T3 2022 missed a cut 21 and then T and T six so having three top 10 finishes for someone who's going to be priced in the 7K range. Obviously there's upside with it. I think he can find some of that form we saw earlier in the year, and then this is a spot where he rises up and of course we know he's found a lot of success in the past. David, you got one left to eat three hundred more love your take on both more and posted first. Yeah so in regards to Taylor more I I prefer to have more golf courses where he can really lean into his excellent approach play over 200 yards. He's one of the best on the PGO tour within that range and my concern here for him comes from the fact that it's on a golf course which actually you have a really low number of shots within. Where he can really elevate himself over the other people in the field. So it'd be my concern alongside ownership around 10% look he's a little bit less on than say Camp Davis in that range but he is like getting up there into the ownership computer other names around him. Same with JT Posten unfortunately again I'm getting kind of like 13% ownership on JT Posten and for me I'd rather go to like a Bezet and Hout or English who I drafted. You might have done some where I think if if those names weren't off the board as you mentioned you would have liked to have taken Bezet and Hout. I just prefer those options there considering their low ownership and I've actually got a higher expected output for for both of them this week. All right all right well you got one eighty three hundred left. Who's it going to be? Well I'm a sucker for punishment Joel and me and this golfer have the equivalent of an abusive relationship where everybody around us knows that we should break up and everyone tells us that we should break up. But we just keep getting back together and that golfer is Russell Hanley who consistently is going to finish top 10, have a chance to win and throw it away down the stretch. I just can't resist the form, I can't resist his correlating courses, ninth year previously, 19th last year as well, Siege Field he's finished second and fifth. Very, very accurate off the tee, excellent approach metrics, great chipping, great padding, takes all the boxes should be a great spot for him so inevitably he's going to finish T6 but I just can't resist him at this price. He is going to be, he is going to be high, he's going to be about 15, 16% but as I mentioned at the top of the show, I'm not taking a cheer flow that's immediately going to get you different and taking this kind of balance build approach immediately you're going to find some leverage in other spots and I think what I would comment like I'm going to to my own horn and give credit to my own lineup. It's like every single player within this lineup has win equity at this golf tournament. Like every single one could come out and win at this kind of fiddly golf course where driving actually is going to be really key. And I'd like taking that stance over risking with a mirror with the cheer flow is going to go into labour so yeah I'd like to hear your take on Russell Hanley and whether you think we should break up or I can continue my love affair with him. I like the pick he's definitely in my fire pool I had some one point in this draft was playing to take on the way the picks turned out he ended up in my lineup. I will definitely be playing him this week. I do think he's a little bit overpriced like I prefer Henley in the 7K range is a value play, but I think he has plenty of upside again he's someone I'm definitely going to play. It does seem like a really good course fit for him we've seen that good form recently we've also seen a really good result from here at this course so yeah I endorsed the Henley pick I will be playing him as well. And audience another great job getting your pick in early with Chris Kirk he had a good showing in the over the weekend at the Masters. He seems like another guy that should be a good fit here and the 7K range I think is pretty low there's a lot of options you to go to. He's one that I think you can consider I think there's some other guys I like more in the 7K range but they're all gone so for what you guys have left I can understand getting to Kirk in this spot David I'll pass to you are you going to be on Kirk at all this week. Yeah Kirk was actually one of the other names that I was going to mention that you could have to go to instead of a Taylormore or JT Poston. 16th last start at the Masters very impressive 26 at the Players Championship as well so another Pete died design. He's had a seventh year previously back in 2021 hasn't done much outside of that but I do think that Chris Kirk has been playing some better golf this year than a lot of people giving him credit for. 18th and while I earlier this season as well in Hawaii which is a similar enough course in terms of crossover of leaderboards you can find lots of crossover between the Sony Open and the RBT heritage. Another like a wedge fest where you need to be finding fairways and then there's lots of shots between 100 to 200 yards smaller than average greens, ocean size, these wind factors so there's a lot to like between their correlation the so I think that he's a decent pick within that range. And again I would have expected him to be a little bit higher round in years like he's lower own than Akshay Patilla and I do think that there's a bit of course fit for me then then what Akshay is going to give you. There you have it. I love it. I love a great draft. I think you're seeing multiple strategies here from the Scotting Bill to a more balanced David Bill I'm probably in the mouth more balanced side but I also have kind of two stars so there's plenty of different approaches I think you can take this it should be a fun golf tournament but we're not done yet as we pull the draft board down do us a favor hit the like one and give us a follow it goes a long way. Don't forget the following daily sign up and get in our discord because before we wrap up the week we will be putting updates starting with weather in discourse you can get the weather updates if there is an edge to be had early wave afternoon wave. We will tell you we'll be posting outright bets and then the follow there if you've been following me sure you've been doing really well you've made your money back and then some by signing up so get in there check it out. We'll also have Stephen's ownership article being released, which is the most accurate ownership article in the business so if you really want to understand what ownership looks like maybe how to make some of your pivots, especially in a 7K range is just a few guys. It's a really important factor for entering GPPs this week. Before we let you go we are going to dive into our first round leader market. David, who are you looking at for first round leaders this week. Yeah, it's an interesting week for first round leaders because of the fact that there's only 69 players in the field. Nice. You are getting some really depressed odds on first round leaders like the bookmakers have obviously noted the limited field size and compared to the win odds they've really like clamped down on a lot of these golfers when it comes to first round leaders so I'm not going to have a huge number this week as a result of that because I just think that some of the value is kind of stripped from some of these players because of what the bookmakers have done. It's almost like they've gone too far between factoring in the factor does a smaller field versus the chance of some of these golfers actually going out and spiking on one single round. So, for me, I'm going to take a couple of guys who were drafted in the PGA draft cast this week. So I'm going to take Lucas Glover at 50 to 1 so he can ball strike the hell out of it. We've seen him be first round leader previously places and we know that with a golf course like this where it really fits his eye if he can spike a hot powder for one round as he kind of showed us last week he can come out and shoot a really low number. 51 seems a decent number and his odds haven't been cut to drastically compared to his predicted win probability. Then another golfer who didn't get drafted this week on the PGA draft cast who I do really like Austin Eckroat. You can get him at 80 to 1 for first round leader. If you're at MGM you can get about 90s. He's been absolutely ball striking the hell out of it. I mentioned in the lead up to the Masters that over the last 30 days he ranked actually within the top 10 for strokes gained approach for that field which is incredibly impressive. I don't think he's getting the credit for it and that he necessarily deserves and I think that he is good value at 80 to 1 in the first round leader market. Final two for me, Seawookim, we haven't mentioned him on the show but he's been playing some great golf lately, really good approach player. Played really well at the Sony Open. He's just played a lot of success there. I think this is a good spot for him and probably prefer him in the first round leader market to an outwind market because they have some questions about the putter in the short game whether they can actually hold up for a full four rounds but certainly the kind of golfer that can come out and spike a first round. So you can get him at 35s in majority of places but my absolute lock is the guy who I think could well win this golf tournament. And that is the Englishman Tommy Fleetwood who you can get at 28. I love it. I love those plays. I'm smiling. I was adding Seawook to my card also as you were saying I see with someone who you mentioned today but someone I think is a good fit for a first round leader play. So I'll include him as my first. I think my two longer shot plays that I like this week. Both were not drafted on the show but I think both are very playable. Both coming in at 60 to one are Emiliano Greo who has a good history here has shown to have some spurts on this course. As well as Tom Holey who we've seen be the best ball striker on tour for a portion of this season. I think he came out and have a great one round and maybe be a first round leader play at 60 to one. I think the most interesting one for me though I think if we've already mentioned him a bunch on the show the best golfer in the world. It's got a shuffle. I mean you couldn't get those odds for him to win the whole tournament and if you're concerned about him withdrawing it probably won't be on the first day. So you get kind of pretty decent odds at 12 to one. He cannot have a great first round and be your leader and then go home to his wife and not have to play the whole four days. So it's an interesting way to get some action on Scottie coming off what was already in historic week at the Masters. That's a wrap. That's it for me this week. That's it for the draft cast. I think it's a really fun tournament and so don't get too much of a Masters hangover and get involved. I think there's money to meet me especially if you do your research. There's certainly some good targets to go after. Don't forget sign up for one daily get in the discord. Make sure you get those updates. Those are critical updates before the tournament starts. That will help you get that final edge to make sure you're winning. And of course we post a lot of things throughout the tournament in case you're playing showdown or making midweek bets to make sure you get that edge. Seven week ahead. Can't wait to get back and draft with you guys next week. David and I need to unseat the audience who is our current champion. Great job with their win last week and great job getting your picks in this week audience is on fire. You guys are the engine that makes this show run. We greatly appreciate you. David, am I forgetting anything this week? Yeah, I have two things. One's a question and one's a blatant promotion. We've had the Masters deal out for the last month. It is your best time to sign up for win daily right now. I've had permission to extend it for one more week but it is going away. You're getting 50% off at the moment for joining win daily. So that means you get access to not just golf but MLB, NBA, the NFL. You're going to go right through to next year's Masters with your coverage with win daily sports. Get all of our selections across a wide variety of sports. You're only paying $250 for the entire year versus a normal price of $4.99. So it's the best time to get in. The promotion does eat. There's a link in the description. Just click on the link and have a read and see what we do and read a bit more about our reviews, our track record, what we do, what you're going to receive with win daily because it's just, it is just silly. We're giving it away at the moment. It's really silly value. So that's the first thing. Shameless plug for win daily and what we're doing over there. The second is a question for you, Joel. How do you treat Jordan Spieth this week? Because I would say that in 2022, he missed the cut of the Masters came here the week after the spot that he loves. He won the golf tournament. I'm seeing zero ownership on him. It seems like the kind of spot where Jordan Spieth, one of the best short game players in the world who has a great record record on a course like this could just come out and play well. So he's someone that I'm really interested in, but I'm just so curious as to what he's playing. I'd love your take on Jordan Spieth. It's funny. We must wrap on the same wavelength here on the end of the show because I was considering mentioning Jordan Spieth as my last first round leader played and opted out as I now was leaving out what I said. Listen, he's an interesting one for this week for a few reasons. He's not in good form and it's kind of hard to suggest him right now because what we've seen. But he's still Jordan Spieth and if there's a get right spot, it's this tournament. It's this course where he's going to get right. So I kind of look at it as like, it's a play where there is a world where he can show up and surprise people and it's going to be depressed ownership because of his form has not been good. But that's the way I would play him. I definitely wouldn't be overweight to him. I'd be playing him in some lineups as a leverage play is like, hey, maybe I got a little chalky here. Let me throw a spieth in my last spot where I can afford him as aware that he does have upside and I can get some leverage on it. For sure. I mean, the guys won here in 2022 and it was runner up here in 2023. Before that, he's had a knife, the 12th and 11th and it's three tries around this golf course. I just think he's a really interesting name this week, one that's worth looking at. I love this comment from Ed. Are there any clubhouses that Spieth can hit this week? I believe there is a clubhouse at Harvard town, but more notably, he could potentially hit it into the lighthouse. I think would be a really interesting way that he could play the 18th hole as a possibility out there. So we'll see if that happens. If there's any lighthouse hits, you know, where you heard it here first and that was on the PGA Draftcast. If he hits the lighthouse this week, somehow that comes to, we've made that a reality, that would just be unbelievable. That's a wrap again. It is a fun one to watch. So feel, I would, you know, make sure you have some availability this weekend to tune in and check out at least the end of this tournament. Get your plays in and we are going to find some winners and crown and champion. Hopefully be throwing the audience next week. Maybe, Sia will be back to help see that come to fruition. If not, sports. Without the ones like you, who work tirelessly to keep things running, everything would suddenly stop. Hospitals, factories, schools and power plants, they all depend on you. No matter the weather, emergency or time of day, you're the ones who get it done. At Granger, we're here for you. With professional grade industrial supplies, count on real-time product availability and fast delivery. Call clickgranger.com or just out by Granger for the ones who get it done.
