The Jon Sanchez Show

11/26-How will the new round of tariffs impact the housing market?

Yesterday evening, president elect Trump shocked the world. On his Truth Social media platform, he announced a new round of tariffs as soon as he is in office. The first is an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The second was a 25% tariff on all goods imported from our allies, Mexico and Canada. How will these new rounds of tariffs impact the housing market? We’ll share with you the details

Duration:: 36m
Broadcast on:: 27 Nov 2024
Audio Format:: other

If you're a maintenance supervisor for a commercial property, you've had to deal with everything from leaky faucets to flickering light bulbs. But nothing's worse than that ancient boiler that's lived in the building since the day it was built. Fifty years ago, it's enough to make anyone lose their cool. That's where Granger comes in. With industrial-grade products and dependable fast delivery, Granger can help with any challenge. From worn-out components to everyday necessities, call, clickgranger.com, or just stop by. It's Granger for the ones who get it done. Good Tuesday afternoon to you and welcome to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780KOH. It's a whole pleasure to be with you and a whole pleasure to have a full house to be with my co-host. I love being with every Tuesday and Thursday. We have the full crew tonight. Dwight Millard of Synergy One, Lindy, and how are you, my friend? Dwight Millard. I guess we don't have Dwight. Coriage of Israelity. Do we have you? You got me. Hey, Greg, I just want to let you know, Dwight, just messaged me and said that he is having trouble. He got cut off and shoveled dialing back in. If he could please be of service to him, I'd appreciate it. Mr. Edge, how are you, my friend? I'm doing great, man. It's a couple days before holiday. Weather's nice. It's coming in for better. It's my birthday. Exactly. Exactly. There's no counting calories here in a couple of days, right? No, absolutely not. It's early now. He does nothing you want. There you go. There you go. I know my wife was just telling me a few minutes ago, she goes, "Yeah, I got to seize pecan pies and pumpkin pies and everything." She goes, "I got these little ones." I said, "Little ones? Why?" She goes, "We don't need the big ones." I said, "Wait a minute. It's Thanksgiving. There's no calorie counting on Thanksgiving." That's a crisis to do that. My goodness. That must be a common thing among wives because mine doesn't sound like we need to get enough food for the next few days. Not just for today. Right. Right. There's got to be leftovers, lots of leftovers. That is the best part. Yeah, exactly. My favorite part, my favorite part, I've said this before. It is not the turkey dinner. It is the turkey sandwich and the turkey taquitos the following days. That is my favorite part, not the hot turkey out of the oven as crazy as that sounds. I like the liftovers the very best. And the late night pie and ice cream today is lighter. There you go. There you go. I forgot about that one. You're watching football. That's right. That's right. Absolutely. All right. Well, let's see what his holiday plans are going to include. Dwight Millard is energy with Lindy. We have you back, my friend. How are you? I'm doing fantastic. I gained five pounds listening to you guys. That's good. Add that to the 10. We're all going to gain. We'll be in good shape. We've got our winner for going. Oh my goodness. Yeah. I know we're head up to Oklahoma, so we're going to be giving with 75 people in Oklahoma. So I'll let you know. I'll let you know on Tuesday how that all goes. I guarantee you will gain those 10 to 15 pounds of those Oklahoma's cook and it's going to be good food, my friend. It's going to be good food. So I'm jealous. I'm looking forward to it. You guys felt like you guys are already as well. So getting close. It's my favorite time. It's my favorite time. I mean, add me a beat it. I agree. I agree. 100%. I'm going to do something a little bit different. I'm going to Catalina for Thanksgiving. Oh, nice. Have a great night. Yeah. Yeah. We're going to take the book to Catalina. Leave tomorrow. I'll probably be doing the show out in the middle of the ocean somewhere, but that'll no problem with that. Thanks to Starlink. And yeah, we're going to try something different this year. Just go there and do a little scuba diving and some offshore fishing. And just relax and kind of get away from society for a while. So facing ships, not Turkey. Yeah. It just may be. Yes. Yes. It just may be. Yeah, my wife said, okay, so what do we do? Are we doing, you know, Turkey or what do we have? And she goes, we're having fish that we're going to catch. I said, what if we don't catch any she goes, then we're not eating Thanksgiving dinner. So there's no pressure or anything. No pressure whatsoever. Yeah. But I'm pretty good with my spirit gun. So I figure if I can't catch it on the rod and reel, you know, I will scuba dive down and I promise I will get something. It may not be the most tasty, but I will get something. I promise that. Well, they work on land, too. So if you see a little exactly, you know, just just not on Catalina, you don't quite want to do anything like that. They do have bison on there, but I don't think you're allowed to shoot them. Yeah. So yeah, looking forward to some more with her though. Yeah, exactly. Something different. Something different. Definitely. Well, I'll tell you, we've got something different to talk to you this afternoon about my Guinness, you know, I was I was out playing with my dog yesterday. Afternoon. After the show. My German Shepherd puppy, Matata, and she's seven months old. This dog just is a is a race horse just absolutely like any puppy just loves to run. So I'm up there and I'm playing ball with her and everything's going great. And I get this text alert from CNBC soon to be president Trump announcing new tariffs against China and Canada and Mexico. And I drop the little device I was using to throw the ball with. And I take a look at my phone and I'm like, Oh my God, what a way to make me look like an idiot. So if you want to find out how bad I look, listen to the podcast from yesterday's show because I was bragging about President Trump's new nominee for Treasury Secretary and talking about as the street was talking about all day long, how this guy is this going to, you know, basically layer in tariffs. He has a way to, you know, somewhat control, tump and layer in the tariffs. And I said, you know, one of the biggest challenges that all three of us had, of course, when Trump was in office before was we'd get these tweets in the middle of the night of tariffs and all kinds of other things and then the market would react and, you know, here we go, right? Well, sure enough, we get that text and completely opposite of what I thought was going to happen yesterday or helping when the Trump administration takes hold in January and lo and behold, he's already announcing new tariffs against China, 10% additional tariffs. By the way, remember folks, we already have, I think what 60% tariffs on a lot of goods. So an additional 10% tariff, but the one that got me and I, like I said, the reason I dropped the ball and I went, Oh my God, no, you can't tell me this is 25% tariff against China, excuse me, against Canada and Mexico of all, all imports. So all night long, I did not sleep well, and I'm thinking, my God, what's this going to do to the market? Well, didn't hardly do anything. We had a big sell off at the open, but all it matters is where we finished at one o'clock, which was a pretty solid gain triple digits and record clothes for the Dow and the SMPs, and we'll give you more details on that. But this market had a very, very bizarre reaction to this. Now, why is this bizarre? Because as we're going to discuss this afternoon, what is this now going to do to real estate prices? Let's forget about everything else. And like Ross and I were joking this morning, you know, the three, the three important things that many of you partake in and that is, you know, good cold Mexican beer, some avocados and some good Mexican tequila, well, those prices are going to go through the roof along with everything else. And you know, my wife brought up a great point when I sat down and she was, you know, when I came back and she's like, what is wrong with it? I told her the text I just received. She goes, so let me get this straight. We're going to get at a 25% tariff or start a 25% tariff against Mexico. And she goes, let's just talk avocados for a second. I said, great. I love guacamole, especially hers. And she said, okay, so if you're an avocado grower in the central valley where a lot of avocados come from, what are you going to do? Are you going to get excited right now when you just found out this news that Mexico's, you know, avocado prices in this example are going to go up 25% and your answer is going to be yes. But does that mean the avocado grower here in the central valley is going to decrease or hold their prices steady at 25%? No, what it does mean is they're going to probably raise their prices, 25% to match what's the, you know, this new additional cost coming out of Mexico for avocados. Again, very simplistic example, but this is what we're going to be talking about this afternoon. We're not going to be talking avocados and corona. What we're going to be talking about is how is this going to impact home prices because so many of the goods we get from the three countries I just mentioned, many things in the house come from China. We get steel and so on and so forth. But the one guys that really has me going that I'm so anxious to hear your guys's take on this especially you Corey is what is this going to do to lumber prices and all of a sudden I had a flashback to when we did the show when when Trump was in office and we saw these massive tariffs come in and lumber prices. Remember that guys? Remember when that lumber price? Remember that one day on the show when the lumber prices just I can't even remember how much they shot up in one day when it was announced and I'm thinking, oh my gosh, what is this going to do? Well, I did a little bit of digging. Did you know that we already have a 14.8% this is as of last year. I don't know if anything's changed this year but the data that I could find was as of last year there's basically a 14.8% tariff on lumber prices coming out of Canada into the US. So now you tack on another 25% and you know Corey, what is this going to do? What is this going to do to lumber prices which isn't that well let me instead of me guessing on this because I don't know the answer but maybe you do Corey. Or lumber prices roughly what percent are lumber prices compared to the overall cost of a home? Are they 20%? 50%? I'm thinking they are the vast majority. Am I right or wrong on that? I would be purely guessing but you have to be right somewhere maybe that 30, 40% maybe higher but I mean it is the bread and butter of the stick built home. I mean it's a stick built home. Right. Right. How about you? Well I played around that sandbox for many years and yeah I would say you know at least probably 50% right from trusses to the flooring to the gird you know everything so yeah. And I can only imagine to your point that it goes up but you know I guess John my question real quick is you don't see this being set up as like a negotiating tool. Hey let's say I want you to come to the table you know I'm not going to something because the knife could be. Good president yet. Yeah. Yeah. It could be but but we already had we already had the Mexican president her name escapes me right now. We already have the Mexican president come out with a letter today saying all right guess what here comes the the tariffs we're doing the exact same thing back to you. So there it goes. Now to your point to white yes that is part of the strategy that Trump has laid out that it is a negotiating tool but what we saw before and all we can go off of is what happened when he was in office before is it didn't end up really being a negotiating tool. Now I went to debt clock dot org yesterday during the show and if I remember correctly they have a new box on there which is the government's revenue of tariff taxes and it was about thirty two billion dollars I assume that was a year to date. So it does bring in money but again at what cost now he now he did make the announcement on on his web his social media platform to social indicating that the reason he's doing this is he's blaming drug costs meaning illegal drugs that the the damage that that that both China and Mexico are doing to the US as far as illegal drugs coming in Fentanyl and so on so forth. That was his main reason behind it. He didn't say anything about it being a negotiating tactic but we all know that it is. So I don't know what's going to happen guys. I don't know what's going to happen but all I know is prices for homes are going to be going up dramatically if this indeed you know continues to go through and like I said we're going to start seeing the tit for tap from many of the nations. I didn't see any comments out of China in regards to their retaliation but man oh man you talk about hitting the ground running. I mean not even in an office already announcing it which again was part of his campaign plan I just did not think that and remember I've said that guys I said it a couple weeks ago I hope he does not go after our allies on this one and sure enough that he did. So we'll talk about that after we give you a market recap when we come back. First Kristin Snow is going to bring us up to date on the right now traffic center. Hi Kristin. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on his talk 780K OH with Coriage of Edge Realty to Weitman Lard of Cenorgy Wind Lending. All right before I get to the market so I did a little research guys during the break and according to estimates it looks like it somewhat varies here. I'm getting a couple different cost percentages I should say as to the makeup of a home's cost i.e. what percentage is lumber. One estimate I'm seeing is saying somewhere between 10 to 15 percent others are saying as high as 30.2 so I think we're pretty close let's just call it probably 25 30 percent and then again we tack on this new surcharge against Canada for another 25 percent so there's our answer there all right yeah John I found that the same the you know several I did the same thing 30 percent but but what was even a bigger number is 94 percent of single homes are are stick built so yeah you know we're not even going into metal or any other kind of it's all wood driven so all with it there you go yep it's even more impactful so like I said a little over 14 percent we are already paying and you know for for leftover tariffs I'll call it and different issues going on with with Canada and then you tack this on so yeah it's going to be an interesting discussion guys let me get to the stock market side of things today because like I said very surprised in the market reaction do I you had a lot of action in the bond market also which I'm anxious to hear about but here's how we finished for the day a 124 gain on the Dow 0.28 percent 44,860 we were down over 300 at our lowest level and then just it was just the slow train going up it just kept going and going and going NASDAQ and again that was a record finish 44,860 NASDAQ rose 121.63 percent to close at 19,175 and also a record close for the S&P 500 up 34.57 percent to 6,021 oil prices barely budged down one-tenth of a percent to 6888 a barrel gold up two dollars and 80 cents 2621 30 and a four basis point increase on the 10 year treasury to close at 4.3. Do I before I turn it over to you to see the bond market reaction and mortgage reaction do want to mention another positive catalyst this happened intraday and it did give us a little bit of of upside momentum when the Trump administration or excuse me when the Biden administration announcing that a ceasefire agreement has been signed between Hezbollah and and Israel and you know it was interesting guys because of what happened yesterday with that text message I got and I researched the the Trump or truth social I downloaded the app I hadn't had it on my phone yet so I downloaded that last night because I wanted to see exactly what the president said because that's where he made the announcement of the new tariffs and so today I got the alert off of that that the ceasefire agreement had been signed well before it hit the the news wires before CNBC or Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal my favorite deal three new sources even made the announcement so I thought that was kind of interesting like how did he know before everybody else did I don't know just a little tidbit to this crazy day today all right Dwight let's turn it over to the mortgage side of things yesterday I joked I talked about you on the show and and made mention of course that you had to be smiling yesterday because we did break the seven percent 30 year mortgage rate how do we do today we still hold them below that yeah so the bond transit the mortgage back securities traders must have had a sleepless night as well John because we opened up down 13 basis points and we hung there almost the entire day until the very end maybe the last hour or so of the trading we've only finished down minus three basis points so basically unchanged but 30 year fixed rate according to mortgage news daily instapped two basis points to 6.95 so still into that magical seven that we need right now but I you know I just see this slow and go through the end of the year I think we're gonna be taught I mean I can't imagine anything being well I don't know maybe maybe they can now with Trump and his true social right yeah yeah I don't see anything on the horizon that does anything but you know I want to make a comment to that and correct me if I'm wrong John but that sees fires only for 60 days so Trump is now going to be an office yes when that expires so that's interesting they only signed a 60 day season yes so I don't know somebody knows something we don't that's that's my point thank you thank you Corey what what are you hearing on the street with your sellers buyers etc maybe it's too soon to ask this question now that we broke that 7% again hearing anything positive excitement off the fence type of activity at all it's pretty quiet I mean the whole market's pretty quiet I think if you had it you were staying active all the rates kind of went up above seven so now you're the same amount of activity maybe a tad bit more now that you're down below I think a lot of this to the normal person is just noise until they see it you know in their pocketbook or in the price of a house or on a good faith estimate from Dwight then it really doesn't mean anything to him but you know I think I almost mentioned it to you last week I was going to ask you on air like if you think we're going to get these you know Twitter bombs in the middle of the night which is what he did last term obviously different media now and there was an expert on TV yesterday no no he's he's learned his lesson it's going to be a different but see that's what I said too and he made us all look like idiots I want to say like I am not faulting him one minute for what he's doing because sure Dwight and I had a conversation last week off air that you know I think he strikes me as a kind of guy that sees a future where things are stronger for the country and this and that but it may take a little pain to get there and if he thinks he can stop all these craziness from coming over the border and this is a pain to go through then I think your average everyday American will take the pain to get rid of the the bad stuff that's happening around you know all the borders both borders well that latter part of what you just said core I think that's really the impending question because can they take the pain right we in here's man oh man I wish we had a couple hours tonight because this is such an in-depth subject so here we are we elect a new president because the country's pissed off about inflation right and they blamed it by administration i.e. Harris also right one of the reasons she did not get elected now of course you add these tariffs in and again this is probably just the beginning I'm sure what is that going to do to inflation are we going to see inflation kick up into your point I don't know if Trump cares cares about it now yesterday was a different day right when they when they made the the treasury nomination announcement of the percent everyone's like hey this guy is a inflation hawk he's going to do everything he can to keep inflation down he's going to do this he's going to do that man do i you were smiling yesterday what did you get a what was it a 14 15 point basis point drop in ten year treasury yield yeah mortgage rates dropped on and on everything was great and now Corey I don't know I mean can the consumer take another you know dramatic increase in in just using homes as one example in home prices but let's face it everything in our life is going to go up with these tariffs I mean everything in our life you know the auto stocks just to give you a quick example the auto stocks got slammed today on this news because you know you take general motors as an example stock finished down almost nine percent i'm throwing in a little after hours right now it's down eight point nine five percent five dollar and thirty nine cent loss to fifty four eighty one gm imports uh 30 percent of their vehicles from Canada or excuse me from Mexico right and we know gm because i've in or let's go to stalinus um you know maker of dodge and jeep i know the dodge trucks i own there's a sticker on there you know made in in Canada so that impacted that stock today down over five percent um you look at four down two point six three so you look at the the different niches of our life you know the autos obviously the groceries that we touched on and now of course our topic this afternoon which is going to be the home prices man it's going to be very interesting to see what this does to inflation and bottom line you know forget about the i-word what does it mean for our pocketbook as a consumer and in again so many different aspects of our lives so we'll get to our topic and get it start drilling down on this again how will the new round of tariffs impact the housing market we're going to try to answer that for you when we come back with cori and Dwight let's turn it over to greg neff he's got news traffic and weather hi greg welcome back to the john sanchez show a new stock 780k which is coriage of agility Dwight melardis energy when lending once again we finished at a record close of the Dow and the s&p Dow finished up when 24 Nasdaq rose 121 s&p higher by 34 all right trumps big announcement yesterday afternoon once again assessing a an additional ten percent tariff against china's imports and a brand new twenty five percent tariff against Canada and Mexico's imports now to wipe before i get to on a read a very interesting article for i know from one of your favorite publications to white housing wire they tackled this topic it's kind of funny to read it because it came out on November the eighth and they're they're you know obviously the campaigning was uh uh still kind of happening and or when trump was campaigning they're referred to and they're talking about uh what trump said he is going to do on tariffs in regards to home builders um boy they were off a little bit on this one just like the rest of us but before we do you have some updates for us on some uh some mortgages go ahead and share that if you would yeah so um it appears and i'm trying to well number one we talked about fanny may and fredy mac increasing their loan limits for next year and we were thinking it's going to be right around the 802 range well it's official it's eight oh six five hundred so it says five point two percent increase from uh twenty four numbers which is a thirty nine thousand nine hundred fifty dollar increase from seven sixty six five fifty um they're also have increased f h a um loan limits i'm trying of course how you get into the government website um but they are on the increase i i don't have an exact number it says for the low cost areas it's five twenty four so i can only imagine that what will experience in all of the counties in in Nevada will be an increase i'm just trying to figure out they can get me an exact one but expect higher loan limits coming very shortly from f h a if i can't find an adult don't be you mentioned that a few weeks short yeah you mentioned that a few weeks ago those were some pretty nice increases so yeah let's nail that down and and know for sure but well the intent so can you believe that john over three quarters of a million dollars so you're at eight oh six as the max loan limit i had to ask when i had to ask when you got in the business where it was thirty plus one ninety one ninety oh my gosh is that something there's no signs of inflation Corey no signs of inflation there oh man yeah oh gosh guys if you bear with me here i want to read this very fascinating article again from housing wire and in the articles dated November the eighth that hits exactly what we're going to be talking about it's relatively short but it's chockful a very very important information uh once again if you just join us what we're talking about is how much could a home price go up now that canada where we receive a significant amount of our lumber from is going to be assessed a twenty five percent additional tariff and again remember they're already paying a little over fourteen percent uh so this is on top of that so here's this article called tariff taxes and regulations praising tarot says the greatest thing ever invented is unusual that titles typically reserved for sliced bread but donald trump has always been vocal about his trade policies an impending return to the white house for trump can raise us home building costs as his proposed tariffs would likely increase prices for essential construction materials this echoes the impact on housing costs from previous term though or through higher tariffs on canadian lumber under president joe biden's administration tariffs on canadian soft wood lumber have persisted and even double this has led to mill closures and job losses in canada along with higher cost for us builders trumps current proposals and i remember this was written you know a few weeks ago trumps current proposal includes a ten or twenty percent tariffs on all imports across the board um along with an additional tariff of sixty to one hundred percent from products from china so once again what was announced last night by the soon to be president was twenty five percent mexico and canada and ten percent additional for china okay so they they were off a little bit on that one begin this was a couple weeks ago on november fourth the last day of campaigning trump also bad to impose a twenty five percent tariff on all mexican goods if they don't stop this on slot of criminals and drugs coming into the country okay so there it is now pantheon macro economics forecasters estimate that a ten percent universal tariff could raise here you go kori could raise inflation by roughly eight tenths of a percentage point next year adding further strain on us manufacturers according to the tax foundation a twenty percent tariff would increase taxes on us households by an average of two thousand forty five dollars so there it is kori you know question is can the consumer withstand this additional amount okay quote we don't have enough details to put a fine point uh to it yet but based upon the broad outlines that have been described there's a risk that this could add to the cost of housing according to mac uh excuse me mike fratoni chief economist at mortgage bankers association the most likely impact on tariffs would be to add to the cost of housing at a time that affordability is really a challenge the newest framing lumber price measure from the national association of home builders indicates a steady increase with framing lumber up two point nine percent for the week ending november the first and seventeen point two percent higher than a year ago sal mill curtailments enclosures in north america especially in canada are impacting companies like western forest products and can for to reduce production due to weak demand and high us tariffs it's not just raw materials as such items like garage doors air conditioning units and dumpsters may also see price hikes trumps previous terrace include up to a 30 percent levies on steel and aluminum raising construction across across the board according to uh voice of america since the details of the tariffs aren't set in stone frantoni said there are few avenues they could create if there's just a tariff specific to one country there's always the potential to source those outputs from someone else for a similar cost he said but if it's a broad based tariff that reduces the ability to find a lower cost input so that's probably going to be more inflationary across the whole economy and adding more costs in the housing industry with more certainty almost down here during trumps first term tariffs on canadian softwood lumber led to a surge in cost for home builders back in 2018 the nahp estimated that tariffs added nearly nine thousand dollars to the cost of constructing a single family home the impact on lumber prices was dramatic with cost rising close to 80 percent remember that guys year over year in part due to the taxes per the tax foundation the trumpet administration implemented nearly 80 billion dollars in new taxes on americans by opposing tariffs on thousands of products valued at roughly 380 billion in 2018 and 2019 one of the largest tax hikes in decades ryan tatra owner of canada kit based rt construction and maintenance said that he's optimistic about construction's cost despite looming the new tariffs he said during the bite administration my revenue dropped 21 percent cost have just gone up and there was a shortage of workers five years ago interest rates were lower materials were a lot lower for example an osp plywood four years ago as nine bucks it's now gotten up to 50 dollars he said that he and his colleagues in construction of hope but he meant that he doesn't know what could happen in the next year could it really affected builders because you have to give a price on a job and back in the day you could give a customer a 60 day window now literally you're giving people five days because prices fluctuate so much there it is okay do i question pop into my mind during that you give a pre-qual letter okay let's say seven hundred thousand dollars to uh someone for you know a new home we all now this is all coming back to me prices change like this contractor said prices are changing sometimes daily hourly how flexible is a lender can you be bumping up that pre-qual letter if all of a sudden the customer comes back to you and says you know what my builder just informed me my housing cost just shot up 50 thousand dollars i needed to bump up the letter how flexible can you be in this situation well john if we're pushing everybody to the max not much you know it's not much flexibility but a smart plan would be to get them a max right here's the max it right now the way things sit you know next there's a lot of variables interest rates things like that but then you've got a but then you've got to make sure they stay within that uh you know it doesn't hurt to tell the builder or if their builders or if their customers being represented by an agent to let them know hey this is really where we're at don't let them get too much over that but now you'll start to see maybe builders as they did it when when things were gone crazy they didn't sell the house so they were further down the line so i mean this might change how the dynamics if this if it's a big swing john i can't imagine a builder who's running on thin margins right now walking in a price here for nine months out i can't i mean to me i don't know that that's even i mean i mean cori could give this a better take with the people he works with but i don't know how you can hey i'm going to walk in this price is 700 by the time you're done it's unless they've got a lot of fluff in their upgrades and things like that other gate but then john that takes him a disadvantage right against other competition so i don't know what solution is there well it i was you took the words out of my mouth i was going to say the disadvantage now for a new home is cori an existing home so give us your your your analysis cori again we're talking new lumber prices new prices of all the components of a home what's that going to do to existing home values will they right arise um you know similarly or could they you know kind of somewhat hold steady while new home prices skyrocket i think it's going to be the first scenario where they're going to rise this as much as new home prices to keep up yeah they they all kind of rises i mean it's just human nature right if the new home builders get in 500 grand you got a similar house it's two years old you're going to ask 500 grand too but you know i have a little bit of a different take on this because i don't think that the lights right they're not going to lock in their sales price but they're surely going to start locking in their commodity prices you still want to go up two three percent today so i guarantee there's going to be some people buying lumber futures and different things to lock it in but the problem you have even if these tariffs go in and you get an increase in lumber that's not what's causing the high prices right look back to covid when lumber i know it more than doubled whatever it isn't doing right and then it has since come back down but house prices kept going up so to me it all relates back to the inventory and like we discussed a couple weeks ago trump is a smart businessman with a real estate background there are other ways that you can help the real estate market without interest rates because he doesn't control interest rates without anything else you can go to Dwight when Dwight mentioned the capital gain tax holiday yes that would give you inventory they are going we haven't really talked about this but i guarantee they're going to try to get fanny freddy out of conservatorship get it back into the private market but the government's still going to pull strings and i just it's just a matter of time to me until somebody comes up and says hey we should let these people with low interest rates carry that mortgage rate to the new house free up the inventory yeah and then you're going to have then you're going to have a i don't want to say a flood of inventory job but you're going to have a lot more inventory which will stabilize prices and bring it down regardless of a 25 percent tariff okay yeah that's the hope and especially since you got a wall street guy running the treasury how or maybe hopefully it gets nominated and yeah they get creative Corey to your point you're absolutely right all right great point we'll continue that discussion when we come back let's wrap it up with Kristin snow she of course is in the right now traffic center hello my dear welcome back to the john sancho show on new stock 780 kOH well it's maybe time for you to go out and get that tractor before next year if these tariff and steel prices are going to go through the roof um yeah cuz he's tailing the crew they're willing to make you a great deal as they wrap up the year excellent inventory for this time of year by the way i think put together an incredible coyote tractor package from small models to the big ones everything in between zero percent financing for 84 months on select models all you got to do is pick up the phone call them at 882 1225 or stop by and visit their great showroom and yard at 4880 east nine lane in kerson city or just visit them online at s&w tractor dot com again that number 882 1225 all right we're talking about how the new round of tariffs that trumpet now she yesterday will impact housing market but before we do let's get some housekeeping going mr edge your phone number sir 673 6700 mr millard 2402022 thank you fellas all right uh do i you sent me a great article during the break to something else to be considered again the things that we need to be thinking about with the trump administration and that is of course if they and we touched on this you know in previous shows we don't have time to go into great detail but it's a fact of course the immigration sweep that's going to occur and a lot of those illegal immigrants that do work in the construction field so that could put of course a bit of challenge for the contractors out there that are hiring illegal aliens and you know what's going to happen there but again another topic for another day guys but i want to get down to something i was thinking about cori back to your point about the inflationary side of things okay let's go back to my avocado real simple avocado example right avocado avocado prices are going to go up just using that example again um everything's going to go up because of the tariffs now that's going to lead to inflation what's the number one thing the feds not going to do if inflation is going to start increasing they're not going to cut interest rates hence why we saw the minutes today from the uh meeting just a few weeks ago indicating that some of the members are weren't quite so uh you know convinced that uh the interest rate cuts that we're all expecting are going to be that aggressive going forward so give us your take on that cori in the same question to you do i if inflation starts to rise what are the odds in your opinion of what the feds going to do on the next uh next meeting or next couple meetings maybe they gotta wait till next year who knows yeah i think they'll i think they'll sit tight and i think gero and pal was pretty adamant that they'll deal with it when it really happens but but maybe coming out on true social is it really happening so we'll see if he strikes before it actually goes in place yeah good point do i yeah i i think they don't have a choice but not to raise them that's is the inflation coming up but again you know this will be exciting to watch we've been through once before john we said i'm just showing had his son calling so it'll be good for good radio i guess i hope right that it will yeah that it will well it's going to be uh as the most of the boys said it's going to be interesting going forward and this is this going to be some of the uh the different things that we're going to be dealing with next year a lot of positives a few negatives it all depends upon how you look at it glass half full glass half empty but i think Dwight summarized it perfectly no matter what it's going to be volatile it's going to be a lot of great radio great job fellas i do appreciate you and we'll do it again tomorrow on the john sanchez show god bless have a great evening this program was sponsored by sanchez wealth management the material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taking a specific investment tax or legal advice none of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security further information is available by contacting john at sanchez wealth management dot com or seven seven five eight hundred one eight zero one john sanchez offer securities and advisory services through independent financial group llc a registered broker dealer and investment advisor member finra s ipc securities only offered in states john sanchez is registered in sanchez wealth management llc and independent financial group llc are unaffiliated entities synergy one lending equal housing opportunity and ml s number one nine zero seven two three five Dwight malard and ml s number two four one two five nine phone number seven seven five two four two zero two two the information provided today's for educational purposes only the position strategies or opinions of the show do not necessarily represent the position strategies or opinions of synergy one lending or its affiliates all information loan programs interest rates terms and conditions are subject to change without notice synergy one lending offers home loan financing only synergy one lending is not affiliated with the john sanchez show any speakers 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