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The KSO Show

Farmageddon Preview

Duration:
1h 1m
Broadcast on:
29 Nov 2024
Audio Format:
other

K-State hits the road for the regular season finale, another edition of Farmageddon with Iowa State. The Wildcats are searching for their third straight nine win season, while Iowa State tries to win 10 games for the first time in program history and secure a berth in the Big 12 Championship.

- Welcome into case 10 online. I am Mason Voth. That is Derek Young. We are here the day after Thanksgiving. And that means college football is in its final weekend. And despite one game last night, good news. If you are anybody that is on that playoff bubble or that buy bubble to Lane took a loss to Memphis in a nasty way last night. So the green wave are still gonna play for the AAC Championship next weekend against Army. But now they aren't in control of if they host that game and bad, bad loss for them last night. I actually thought, I think they were like two touchdown favorites going into that game. - One, 13 and a half I think. - Yeah, which seemed like a lot for a Memphis team that they were nine and two going into the game. So they were respectable enough. And obviously they came out and won it outright. So that is good news. If you're Arizona State or anybody else in the big 12 that thinks you are going to win the conference championship. So that's what things look like there. But today it's Friday. We're recording this a little over an hour before a game start. So we will have a lot going on. There you go. DUI is supporting Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy. He's a Gundy guy today. We'll talk about that game in a little bit. - Old lady not letting them retire, he said. - Boy, talk about a gold digger, Mike Gundy's wife. That's all that sounds like. - Still not enough money, still not enough. - No, well, I think he just sold his other house and moved into a different one. So he probably is still trying to get that taken care of. But we'll talk about that one briefly. It is involved in best bets in some way. So we will do that as well. A couple of big 12 ones there and then some other stuff around the country. But our main focus is going to be talking about K-State and Iowa State, but it's a good reminder that now that Thanksgiving is done, for those of you that are like, oh, don't play the Christmas music early, blah, blah, blah. Christmas music can start now and that means that the holiday season is officially here and it's time to find the perfect gift for the Cats fan in your life. Give your friends and family the trip of a lifetime to see the Wildcats take on the cyclones in the 2025 Erlingus College Football Classic in Dublin, Ireland. Visit cats2irland.com for information on official travel and hospitality packages. That's cats2irland.com. So yes, for K-State, they are trending towards, well, it's basically confirmed at this point. The Cats will play two of their next three college football games against Iowa State unless chaos takes place this weekend and it's K-State playing in Arlington next week. To make it pretty, go ahead. Could be three straight. Yeah, it could be. To make it pretty cut and dry for everybody here on what that needs to be that happens for K-State to play in the Bigel Championship. It is very unlikely because yes, K-State needs to win. That is probably the second most likely thing that could happen in these scenarios here. And look, going on the road to Jack Tris Stadium at night is not an easy task to begin with. So you're wondering why is it so much easier? Well, here are the other things that you need to have happen. You need Kansas to win on the road at Baylor who basically since they're lost to Colorado has looked like one of the five best teams in the Big 12. They've been pretty consistent. So it's always KU since about three weeks ago. Then K-State also, as we mentioned, Oklahoma State playing today, you need two of the three of Oklahoma State, Arizona or Houston to win road games at teams that are in the Big 12 title game hunt. Actually, I did some reading into this. I'm pretty sure they need to be, and that scenario, they actually need BYU to lose. - Really? - And just one of Arizona State or Colorado. - Hmm, yeah, it is very confusing. I mean, let's talk about-- - It is, it is. It's like these two are a quick and C, but yeah. - It's also because of other scenarios can really impact it because of conference rates, get also, and that's also not the only scenario that K-State can get in, I learned. It's just the most cut and dry one. - So I think if BYU were to win in that scenario and K-State wins and all the other stuff, Oklahoma State and Kansas win, it would actually be a BYU K-State Big 12 title game. That is at least according to, you know, the legend of what if scenarios and conferences, M-Reds, bball.notnothing.net. So, we'll leave it up to him. - We're telling you what we think is out there. Like the Big 12 doesn't have a good track record on this. So we'll just, it's a little flimsy. It's prop, but either way, what I saw, and I think it was what John Kurtz kind of regurgitated, which, say, was who was John, but he's Mr. Big 12, guys. So I'll kind of ride with him on this. BYU loss is just as important as a Baylor loss, I believe. - Hey, real quick, I want you to know that we're all aware that John is Mr. Big 12 because he has turned his back on K-State, this week. I mean-- - Well, the DJ Giddens thing. - Yeah, what are we doing here? - He's also, I hope John's listening to this. He also got like slammed by Doug Gottlieb last night, who's like-- - Yeah, we've all been there for four. - Gotlieb came after me during the NCAA tournament for my Nebraska tweet, which, you know, wait, come on. I thought Doug and I had some camaraderie there, but-- - Gotlieb's saying that Lane Kiffin is correct this time, though, so I don't really like that. - Yeah, well, I don't know that we're gonna put Lane in the correct column. All right, but let's not focus on the Big 12 scenarios 'cause they don't really matter, but they're out there. So just to make people aware, there is a possibility, but it starts with K-State needing to beat Iowa State tomorrow night in Jack Tristadium. They did it the last time they were there, 2022. What a phenomenal game that was. 10 to nine K-State wins it. It had a Chris Tennant miss field goal, but he was able to come back and redeem himself. - The Iowa State only. - Yeah, I mean, you thought that after the first series, Adrian Martinez avoided a sack, hit Phillip Brooks on a massive touchdown, and then there was really no other scoring that happened for K-State. The defense showed up and, look, it's not the same defense, but the message would be the same. K-State needs the defense to show up on Saturday night if they want any chance of winning this game. - I remember two things pop out to me about that game. One is Malik Knoll's fumbling at the one yard line for, that took away a long touchdown catch as well. - Yeah, I said a really bad word when that happened. - Oh, I have a video 'cause John Kurtz watched that game in Cold Manback's basement, I believe, and John Kurtz's soul was crushed. I think he thought the game was over. He was just, I guess it was just nondescript. Didn't say a word on the ground for about 10 minutes with a blank stare, so I'm glad they won or else I don't know where Kurtz is today. Anyway, and then the second thing is, because they keep playing it a lot, was to Chris Klimann and Gene Taylor hug when the game was out of play. - Yeah, that was a big time, and that was a significant win for them. Chris Klimann had not won in Ames. They needed that to stay on track to get the big 12 title game 'cause it was early in that run, and it was kind of a big moment in that season. So they found a way to win and what was not one of their better games, and they got the job taken care of. But what's in front of K-State right now is Iowa State is looking for that moment where they can have two dorks hug it out in the middle of the field. I don't know, one of them might give each other a kiss with Jamie Pollard and Matt Campbell during the, after the game, because Iowa State is trying to win 10 games for the first time in school history, and if they win this game, it's pretty much a lock that they are going to the big 12 title game. They'll have a chance to win their first big 12 title after failing in 2020 when they lost to Oklahoma. So this is a big deal for Iowa State, and because Iowa State has those stakes attached to it, you're probably thinking, okay, this seems like a lock to get this done. I want people to remember, Iowa State basketball came to Bramledge Coliseum last year on the last day of the regular season with a chance to win the big 12 title, the only thing they needed to get a share of it was Kansas, who's been probably the best basketball program in the country the last 15 years. They just needed them to win against Houston and Iowa State laid a mass of eggs. So just because there's big stakes in a game doesn't mean a team is always going to be up to the task hence K State against Arizona State a couple of weeks ago, but it's also big for K State. The cats are trying to win nine regular season games. It would be a third straight nine win season for Chris Klimann. And then in addition to that, you feel like blowing out Cincinnati, you have some of that momentum back, you want to carry it further and take that two signing day into the off season and into next year and really gas this up. 'Cause I think truly whoever wins this game is probably penciling themselves in for a win next year in Ireland to start the season. I think the momentum carries over in such a big way because if Iowa State doesn't get to the big 12 title game, they don't get the 10 wins in the regular season, they lose this one. They're probably in a pretty dark spot feeling like, man, we let one slip away. If K State loses this game, they finished their regular season losing three of their last four and they're in a spot where, yeah, it's an eight win season, but it feels pretty hollow and vibes are pretty bad going into that bowl game. And I'm sure there's a lot of panic elsewhere from the fan base. So this is a significant game for both teams, even if you're taking for K State, the big 12 title hopes out of this. - I agree. And while you were talking three, I took note each time something popped into my mind of what a takeaway might have been to a comment that you had one. You're right, just because you have the highest stakes or the most to play for doesn't mean it's a certainty that you're going to play well or inspired. You probably are still going to play inspired. You know what the problem comes into play in these types of situations for the team that has something on the line is that that pressure, those stakes that can tend to make a team play tight or a coach to coach again, not to lose, right? Those things come into play. So I think those are the contributing factors of why sometimes we see teams collapse or kind of lay an egg in these types of situations. They play tight or they coach not to lose. Two of those things I think are definitely in play 'cause I'm not sure Matt Campbell just innately is even that aggressive of a coach to begin with. So I think that is put, there's potential for that. - He's aggressive with the refs. - Oh yeah, yeah, I would say. That's a good way to put that. Can't stay, you mentioned the win last week against Cincinnati and how that could be momentum forward for this week. I don't know if I exactly view it as momentum, but I view it as a sign that they have a quit 'cause it could have been an easy for them to do so because it looked like the big 12 title chance was without out of reach at that point. - Yeah, you at least press pause on the sky is falling and like stop the bad momentum. - And the quit factor isn't there. And I do think that this series has at least got enough attention and importance to it regardless of the scenario that both teams get up for this game. It won't matter necessarily where a team is at and the outlook for that particular season. I think if Iowa states across the Kansas State sideline, they are inspired and pretty motivated to win that game and the same is probably true of the cyclones. I think the series in rivalry has kind of just been ratcheted up a few notches to kind of take on that level of importance. And the final thing is you talk about winning late and it being significant or this game being significant, maybe into the off season or perhaps next year's game in Ireland, I probably wouldn't go that far forward that it impacts the game almost a year from now. But I see what your logic is there. What I would say is losing three or four can be disastrous in terms of the effects that it can have on an off season because I wrote this not long ago. I think winning late, even though fans and prognosticators alike now see it at an end of the season. It's like playoff or bus, conference championship or bus. Where's the motivation if you don't have that to play for? At least for a coaching staff or a fan base. I think they have to think about it this way. You enter a season with a bunch of or enter the ossies with a bunch of losses or in this case losing three or four. I think you just have players feeling less good of themselves or their situation more than normal that the idea of popping into the transfer portal becomes a more likely scenario. But I think if you end the year on a high note, which in this case would be defeating Cincinnati, defeating one of your big rivals, Iowa State, winning nine games, nine and three. Now you position yourself probably better in the bull situation than Iowa State. You can get a better bull than them. Maybe an outside shot, a big 12 title game. You could still win 10 games too, if you win your bull. I think that changes the outlook. It changes the feeling about the program to some kids and could be the difference between going into the portal and not. - Yeah, I think it would be interesting. Maybe I need to track this this year. But if teams that we would put in a column of positive momentum over their last three or four games to close out the season versus teams that have the opposite of that, where do transfer portal numbers stack up in terms of entries and additions would be a part of this too, where like it, a case date maybe not so much because you have a lot more going into it to say, hey, look at this. But like take Baylor, for example. Baylor is a team that in this off season could sell some really positive momentum, especially if they win today against Kansas and be like, look where we're trending here. And I think their additions into the program would be greater of that than, I mean, what they're gonna probably finish with the same record as like West Virginia or Texas Tech. And it feels like Baylor is in a spot where things are feeling a lot better there where some of the others are a lot more down. - And the best players within your program that will be recruited and tampered with by others, you can have a easier sell. It might be easier to convince them to stay. - Yeah, like, I don't think Sawyer Robertson is going to be leaving Waco. You know, I think he's probably like, hey, things are going pretty well and-- - Yeah, like if Vanderbilt or South Carolina or Kentucky came calling, he'd be like, I don't know. - I mean, do people realize that Baylor has won five straight games? I mean, I knew that they've been playing well, but you know, I've been a big Baylor and Sawyer Robertson guy and I haven't even-- - You saw where I had a big, 12-power ranking. - Yeah, three or four. Now, you know, to be fair, those wins are against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia, Houston. But three of those are on the road. And we know that Houston is not an easy place to go on the road and get a win, so. - And West Virginia just be tech, like some of those teams are still beating teams. - Yeah, yep, no doubt. Well, in TCU, just floored Arizona and Baylor won by two scores there. - The only one not winning in that scenario was Oklahoma State, yeah. - Yeah, so yeah, exactly. All right, and that's a, they beat West Virginia by two scores, but they beat TCU. That was a pretty dramatic game. We listened to that on our way back from Houston after the loss of the case they took. - And the West Virginia game was the one that had like 60 points in the first half. - Yeah, and then nobody scored in the second half. Okay, so I've got a couple of things for you that I think are significant about this game. Today I have done some looking into the matchups that are going on here. There are two significant things about what goes on here with K-State in this game. The secondary is going to play a major role in this. They have to step up. They probably have to play their best game of the season. They are facing two of the best wide receivers in the big 12. Jaden Higgins and Jay Lenoll are number three and number five in total receiving yards in the league this season. And if you look at what K-State has done this year against the top tier receivers that they faced or the opposing number one. Week two against Tulane. Mario Williams had six catches for 128 yards. He had a really big catch last night until Darian Minsa threw a pick in the end zone. Tetero Mcmillan of Arizona had 11 catches for 138 yards. Chase Roberts only had two catches for 47 yards with BYU, but different circumstances in that game because a lot of short fields and then BYU also got a fumble turn for a touchdown and a punt return for a touchdown. So they didn't really need to be airing it out that much. But then the next week, Dijon Stribbling for Oklahoma State, seven catches for 157 yards. The following game against Colorado, Travis Hunter only had three for 26, but he got hurt in that game. But Omeria Miller had eight catches for 145 yards in the game. - True, yeah. - Yeah, and then a couple somewhat silent games, Hudson Clement, the leading receiver for West Virginia, only four for 29. And then, but, you know, Garrett Green didn't play the second half. Luke Grimm for KU had four catches, 66 yards in the touchdown, but that ball was pretty well spread out in that game. KU still had some good success throwing the ball at times. Not a lot of throws for Houston, but Joseph Manjek had one catch for 44 yards against K State. But then it kind of returned to what you expected 'cause Jordan Tyson had 12 catches for 176 yards and two touchdowns for Arizona State. And then last week, K State held Xavier Henderson to just four catches for 60 yards. So a little bit better there, but obviously some different circumstances in those games. All of that is to let you know, K State has pretty much been blown away by opposing number one receivers this year, especially guys that regardless of what team they're on, it's like Hudson Clement, he's West Virginia's number one, but I don't think anybody else in the country's like, "Gotta watch out for Hudson Clement at West Virginia. He's a great receiver." No, but you would say that if you have to face Mario Williams, Tetero McMillan at this point, Stribbling would be in that mix. Luke Grimm, Jordan Tyson, those guys would be involved in that conversation. And K State's secondary has had really no answer for him this year. And after the Arizona State game, Chris Klimann straight up admitted that, "Hey, we had too many times where we had safeties on Jordan Tyson. And so this is not only a players have to step up thing. This is a Joe Klimann and Chris Klimann have to find a way to make sure some of these errors get corrected. And it's that much harder facing Iowa State because they basically have two of those guys that could kill you in this game. - Yeah, I don't know if this, you said you had two points. So I don't know if I'll be getting into your second one here. - I don't think you will. I think I've got kind of a weird one for you. It's just in the offensive side of the ball. - But Nein was a little bit of adjacent to what you just kind of described in terms of defending the pass. It's the explosiveness. Iowa State, just like last year, is one of the more explosive offenses in the big 12, or maybe the most explosive offense, at least it wasn't one point, definitely do well nationally in terms of the rankings as well. He had the State's defensive explosive and this allowed his rough. So if Iowa State can exploit that, then the ball game's probably over. - Yeah, no doubt about it. So that's the defensive thing that I think people should be mindful of. I got another one for you. I use this for PowerCat game day tomorrow on what my what to watch for was, because K-State has been pretty good about letting us know early in a game what type of performance it's going to be from there. Think about the loss to BYU. Those first two drives where they moved down the field had a settle for field goals. You're like, man, that feels like it could kind of kill you. And then you think about the game against Houston. Again, early, the offense kind of sputtered, didn't have much to it. And you could tell, I think in whether it was a part of this, but you could still tell, okay, this team isn't going to be able to run away and put Houston away today, like you would maybe want to. - Although they were just quarters in a fourth quarter. - Yeah, no, they were. But it was still, it was a grind for them. And then obviously Arizona State bad offense to start with. - Cincinnati, you knew it was going to be a good day. - Yep, in K-State's wins this year. In six of the eight victories, the Wildcats have scored a touchdown on one of their first two possessions of the game. They did it against UT Martin. They did it against Arizona. They did it against Oklahoma State. They did it against Colorado. And they did it against Kansas and Cincinnati. The only games they didn't were Tulane in West Virginia. West Virginia was a little bit different though, 'cause it never really felt like K-State wasn't in control of that game. - And Tulane, you found out earlier you were going to be in a dogfight again. - Yeah, but in all three losses this season, K-State has failed to score a touchdown on their first two drives of the game. So obviously against BYU, they had a settle for Fuegels. Houston, it was a Fuegels, should have been a touchdown and Jase Brown isn't running out of bounds. And then Arizona State, they didn't score until the third quarter. So that to me is the big thing here, where especially because of Iowa State's offense, if Iowa State scores early in the game and K-State can't get their answer in one of those first two possessions, I really doubt that K-State is going to be able to manage that environment on the road and the team that they're facing and win this game. - So what were the three losses they didn't get anything? What was it again, Arizona State, Houston? - And BYU, those are the three losses. I would say BYU and Houston, really good defenses. Arizona State, okay. Iowa State's probably a lot closer to Arizona State than the R-Houston and BYU defensively. I know that sounds crazy to some, but those high clones just haven't been super impressive. Now there are some games where they were dominant, but they've been lucky this year. - Really good secondary for Iowa State. They have the second most interceptions in the league. They have the best pass defense, allowing just over 150 passing yards a game this year, but they are bottom of the league in run defense. They're the second worst run defense team behind Oklahoma State. Iowa State's given up 5.1 yards per carry this year. The only worst team is those State at 5.7. And then if you look at some of the top one, quarterback run. - Yeah. So here are some of the top running performances of the season against Iowa State. I'll mix in quarterback two, 'cause there are four big quarterback games to note, but Caleb Johnson of Iowa had 187 yards on 25 carries, two touchdowns. - He's doing that on everyone. - Garrett Green, 87 yards on 10 carries. The West Virginia quarterback. - That's bad. - RJ Harvey, 196 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns. - He's good, but it shouldn't be that good. - Jakuri Brown, UCF's quarterback in that game, 154 yards on 13 carries and two touchdowns. - That's explosive. - Tash Brooks, volume guy, 122 on 25 carries and one touchdown. Devin Neal, 116 yards on 18 carries and two touchdowns. Jalen Daniels had 12 carries for 68 in a touchdown in that game. - Well, you're here. - And then the really bad one for Iowa State. Corey Connor went for 120 yards on 18 carries for Cincinnati in Ames two weeks ago. Brendan Soresby, 141 yards on 14 carries in a touchdown. That included a run of 41 that ended in the end zone. - The Soresby one's really bad, but people on this side of this kind of ramp from 140 on 15 against K-State. - Yeah, a little bit of a little empty there at the end. That was very DJ Giddens versus Arizona State. - Yeah. - I would stay in that one, but. - Yeah, some of it was the second third quarter. Now they did nothing on the ground in the first quarter. I would tell you that, yeah. - Yeah, I mean, K-State, I think once they got up pretty big, they were playing mostly to not get. - I'm just saying if you're right. - If Kansas State didn't have the lead early, like I think the start against Cincinnati, to your credit, you've already talked about starting games, the starting in Cincinnati, definitely won that game, because if they don't start offensively that well, they scored 27 points in the first half. And if it, and it's a tight ball game, Cincinnati can run the ball a lot more. And I don't know if K-State stops it because they weren't that day, even though they have stopped the run this year. - But I'm just saying, even in the other games that were kind of like significant wins by K-State, they took away the other team's run game, even against West Virginia, Oklahoma State, they did not against Cincinnati. - Yeah, looking here at the big runs, Corey Kiner didn't have a big play until there were seven minutes left in the second quarter of that game. And you look at even like the splits. In the first quarter, Cincinnati had two rushing yards on seven carries, they had 56 on six in the second quarter. - Yeah, I'm saying they got going there again. - So the first half total was 58. And they had one 16 in the second half. - Yeah, the game scripted Cincinnati out of that game to be quite honest, 'cause I don't know if it gets, if it's tight at halftime, I don't know if we get the same outcome. But I'll give Cincinnati credit, regardless of like the margins of victory or loss this year, K-State has always stopped a run. I think Cincinnati, my dad, been the best rushing team against K-State this year. - Yeah, I think you're probably right. I mean, everybody else, they've done a nice job against, 'cause you talk about looking at K-State and what their run defense has done. I mean, they shut down Cam Scataboo, they shut down all these other guys. So like, and it wasn't for a lack of trying in some of the instances as well. So they were pretty good there, but it'll be something to monitor in this game. The quarterback run thing. This is, if you're trying to sell yourself on K-State getting this thing done, last week was the perfect appetizer going into this game where that felt like a regular DJ Giddens game. The message going into it was Avery Johnson was healthier than he's been since the Colorado game. And I want to make this emphasis too. I think a lot of people will be like, oh, well, that's easy to say after you run Avery and he runs it well in that game. If you listen back to the TV broadcast, before the first play of the game, Ryan Custer, the play-by-play guy, says that this is the healthiest Avery Johnson has been since the Colorado game. So like, that was the message going into it. And then obviously he rips off the big run. He has a good day running it. You take all that. And now you bring it to this Iowa State game where K-State has to run wild in this game. It feels like offensively. You don't want to throw the ball a lot against this Iowa State team because of how dangerous their secondary is and also because of how bad they've been against the run and not just running backs, but also the quarterback run. Like, this is the perfect scenario if you think K-State's going to get this job done. - I agree running the ball. But I will say as much of them like, well, this could be a huge Avery Johnson running the ball game. Iowa State knows what their deficiency is. And they realize that maybe regardless of the willingness throughout some of the year, because of he's been banged up that Avery Johnson is probably the best runner, or at least the most athletic and most potential. In terms of running ability that they have faced all year. So at some point, I think they will have a solid adjustment, whatever that is, and that they will probably sell out to take that away perhaps. So I don't know if I would just say the key is Avery Johnson running it. I think the key would be what's K-State's answer when Iowa State takes that away. - Yeah, that's a perfect statement there. All right, we will get back to talking K-State Iowa State towards the end of the show, give our predictions and our picks and everything else that goes with it. But first, it is time to dive into best bets, which pretty good week last week. We're both trending to be back on track. It's gonna make these last couple of weeks very crucial. So here is a look at what happened last week. Five in one total for everybody here. D-Y went three and O, I went two and one because Alabama, what the hell? How do you let Oklahoma do that to you? But Devin Neal, he didn't need two touchdowns. He got four in that game. And then Illinois, I did get a little lucky on that one. So it's mad about Alabama's performance as I am. I'm grateful for Illinois's last second win at Rutgers and then Ohio State, Arizona State and the over all took care of business there. - Yeah, Arizona State made it a little tight at the end because they kind of, they were playing BYU, was that the game? - Yeah. - Right? They let BYU win it late. That became more of a sweat than it ever should have been, but the other two cruised. - Yeah, so that is where we stand right now. Basically separated by a half game right there as D-Y has that push lingering. - Was it the Baylor TCU game? I think, yeah. - Yeah, I think so, something like that. So yeah, 18 and 18 for me, 17, 18 to one for D-Y. Here are this week's picks and I'm going back to a well that has served me well this year. Today, depending on when you're listening to this, it may have already happened. Oli Gordon, two touchdowns against Colorado. He had a good week last week against Texas Tech running the ball. Colorado against the better running back in the league when they faced him. They've had no problem. DJ Giddens, Devin Neal, give me Oli Gordon for two touchdowns today against the Colorado Buffalos. I would even consider Oklahoma State covering in that game. I mean, it's 16 and a half. So I guess if you wanted to be safe, you could push it up one more to 17 and a half just to clear yourself of a two touchdown in a field goal game. - I like that, O-ish. 'Cause I even thought about that too. It's like as bad as Oklahoma State's been this year, like Colorado clinching or at least putting themselves in the conversation, it just doesn't feel like any of those teams are gonna have the opportunity to cruise. They're gonna, 'cause they're gonna be game pressure. - Yes, absolutely. And again, I keep going back to it. Would Mike Gundy really go 0 and 9 in big 12 play? It just seems impossible. - So you got a money line then, right? - Yeah, I mean, it's probably worth looking into. I don't know if you get one of those like boost that somebody wants to give you so you can turn whatever the plus 400 or something is into like a little bit more, you know, it might be worth $5 or something. And then my next two, I'm going, this is what I would call the studs be studs in a rivalry game. So you would take Tetero and McMillan, Jordan Tyson and Cam Scataboo to all score a touchdown in a territorial cup on Saturday in Arizona, Arizona State. I mean, I think McMillan finds the end zone at one point. Scataboo is a bowling ball, he'll get in there. And then Jordan Tyson has been maybe the best receiver in the big 12 this season. So I think you do that and that gives you a little bit of extra. And then my last one, last game of the night on Saturday, get ready, Bronco Mendenhall and the Lobos on the road at Hawaii, two and a half point favorites for the Lobos. So I am riding with New Mexico. Ah, you know, I don't know that I love doing it, but I think Hawaii sucks. And I've liked New Mexico all year long, even despite some of the losses that they've had, they've been in games that maybe they shouldn't have been like, and I've always been a Bronco Mendenhall guy. So I feel pretty good about my stance on that and where things sit. Also, this is a big game for them because they are five and six. They need this win to be bowl eligible this season. So I think they get it done. If you go and look at like New Mexico, they're coming off of a four and eight season last year, two years ago, they were three and nine. Last year they were two and 10. So even though this program has been like pretty salty in recent memory, they haven't played in a bowl game since, let's see, it's been a while. I think you got to go away. I'm still going back. I'm like in 2016 is the last year that New Mexico played in a bowl game. So they are playing for something massive on the road at Hawaii. So again, give me the Lobos. - Okay, I'll be watching that with it. - Bebe Lobos. - My first one is Boise State minus 17 and a half. It kind of goes against what I just said about Oklahoma State because they're certainly going to have some game pressure. But I think they've had game pressure for a few weeks, right? I mean, last week got really tight on them against Wyoming. I think there's a Jose State game in there and not too long ago that was kind of tight. I think they've learned their lesson a bit. They played enough with that game pressure to where I think they've adapted to it and now can probably manage it much better. They see Tling go down last night. That probably is a wake-up call for them as well. And then on the other side, I guess I'm losing track of who they're even playing because that was part of my Oregon State. They're playing Oregon State. Where it's they just got up for their big game and gets washed and stayed and upset them, I believe. So I put or came close to it. Did Oregon State win that game against the Cougars? I knew it was close. - I don't know that they did, but that's just me going off of, oh no, they did win it. I was just trying to go off on vibes from Greg Wood's Twitter since he covers the Cougars now, but yeah, I guess Oregon State didn't go off. - I think Oregon State, I mean-- - That's a little chance. - Yeah, for those two teams, I mean, that's kind of the game of the year at this point. They both get up for it. So this is kind of a letdown spot for Oregon State essentially as well unless, you know, they are playing for a bowl and they void the state as a playoff game, so maybe they get up. But I just like the spot for the Broncos and I think they kind of see that light at the end of the tunnel. And Ashton Genti probably sees himself, you know, the other Heisman finalists, I mean, I really got to do something special because I don't have this premier game that the other dudes will, so it kind of like that. And on Texas A&M+5 against the Longhorns, bringing back that rivalry. It won, it's at Kyle Field. Two, Mike Elko admitted it. He was planning for Texas last week when they were playing Auburn, right? Then Mike Elko, he slipped up. So they've been playing for this game for two weeks. I'm just going to listen to Mike Elko. So give me Aggies+5 as long as they can probably get off the mat that losing that game by a drop touchdown in overtime. That's tough to come back from. But I'll listen to what Mike Elko told us last week that they've been preparing for this one for a good bit. Washington+18 and a half. Look, I think Oregon is probably 20 points better than Washington, to be quite honest. But I think Jetfish is a good coach and can probably get his team ready for a rivalry game. And this is another thing, kind of like Oklahoma State, Colorado. Like Oregon's playing for, I don't think this is their first 12-0 season, but it's pretty rare in Oregon football history to go an entire regular season undefeated. And I don't think that comes easy in the last game against your arch rival. A team that you lost to twice last year. So I think Washington can keep it within 17 like that. So I like Washington+18 and a half. - Yeah, Oregon 12 and 0 in that 2010 season where they lost to Auburn in the national championship, but outside of that, I'm looking, I don't think they have any, at least not in years that matter. And really they weren't competitive or interesting until Mike Bellotti took over. - An interesting question here, and I know it's just gonna sound stupid, but let's say Oregon wins, they're 12 and 0. They win the big 10 championship next week. They're 13 and 0. Then they have to win a quarter final, semifinal, national title. I don't think any teams going 16 and 0 in college football, like that's just not going to happen. So I know you'd never want to lose, but if you're an Oregon fan, are you like, maybe it's better to lose before it will have, 'cause we're not gonna win 16-tray games. - I think a lot, not just that, but I think a lot of these teams that are in that position of, okay, we're either gonna be number one or number five, they would rather be number five. That's the talk right now because you look at why. - Number five, you're probably gonna play what, Boise State, Arizona State? - At home, and then you go and you get to play, whoever the four is, so you're probably playing like SMU or. - The four seat is BY or Boise. - Yeah, Boise right now. So yeah, so right now you play Boise or Arizona State, and then if you win, you either play Boise or Arizona State. Like, you would rather have that than, oh, we got the BY and now here we are all of a sudden, and we're playing somebody that is a little bit better. So I think it's something to kind of consider and look at because if you are the one, you're playing probably one of the runner-up or like the third place team in the SEC. - Yeah, here's the problem for Oregon, right? This is your first year in the Big Ten. And conference titles, especially in these super conferences, are hard to come by. - So do you forego that chance? I don't think so, if you think you're working, you're like, "Hell yeah, I wanna win the Big Ten." - And like, so much of this also is, when guys are out there, they're competitors, so they're gonna go and try and make it happen anyways. - And this week, you're not, you're like, well, we don't wanna lose our arch-rival, Washington. So if you're gonna take a loss, I guess you wanted it to be before now. But I just don't think, like, I'll be honest, if Oregon wins against Washington, he goes 12 and that wins the Big Ten championship, or 13, I know. I think I'll write them off as the national champion, 'cause they're not gonna win 16 straight games. - I mean, especially with like, Dan Lanning's track record of, if games get tied, it's not like he was pulling out a bunch of them, so it would be pretty wild for him to flip the script and be able to just win every game this season. Something to monitor there. - I wouldn't take like, I wouldn't take any team in the country this year to win 16 straight games. - Yeah, real quick, before we get into the Big 12 this week, talking about Oregon and Washington, most people probably aware at this point that Lincoln Cure will be visiting out there, the K-State, tied in commit. We're, what, five, six days away from signing day. Where do you feel like that thing is going to end up? Just on gut instinct right now, since he is taking this last minute visit to Eugene. - Yeah, I'll be honest, gut instinct is all I have. I will say that I don't think there's a certainty either way. So, regardless of what I say, I wouldn't listen to me and hear my opinion and say, oh, crap, or yes, you know, whatever it's going to be. I would lean Oregon, and that's only because of the insistence of taking this visit. So, it must be serious to some extent. Like you could have just said, oh, it didn't work out the one we can because of the snowstorm in Denver, I'm not gonna do it. No, he came back, the very next opportunity to do so, and it's still doing it. Now, the only thing that can maybe interrupt those things if he wanted to or had an intention to do so, is Oregon signed two tight ends in the last cycle. They already have one committed right now because they flip the wash and commit being their blue, great name. Second one, they're looking at cure. They wanted to sign two anyways. They're looking at cure, obviously, they would love to have him. Michigan tight end commit, Andrew Olesh, is also visiting Oregon this weekend, which is interesting. Penn State also in the picture there. So, that could have an impact. That's something to consider. I would just lean Oregon more so, just because of, again, the insistence to take that visit, and this is different than past years. For those that haven't followed some of the recruiting changes, the signing period, signing date has moved up a little bit more than it has been in the past. It will be this upcoming Wednesday in conference championship week, which is bizarre, for the teams that also have to prepare for a conference title game, to be quite honest, I don't really think that's fair, but that they have to have a signing day in the middle of preparation for a conference championship game, but they do. But because of that, in the past, there was enough gap that, you know, if Lincoln Cure were to visit Oregon this weekend, he had to stay could go out to Goodland, and have an in-home visit with him, right? And maybe sure anything up, stop the momentum, whatever. You don't have the luxury of doing that anymore. He will get back from Eugene probably on Sunday. It is now a dead period. In-home visits are not going to happen before signing day this year. - Yeah, it's an interesting thing right now. And yeah, I look at it from the other way. I still think this to me feels like one of those where, again, while you would rather him not be taking the visit, it feels like a guy that is just trying to make sure he had everything that he needs. And I just, it really comes down to when you're in a pressure situation last minute, where does your mind for decision-making go? Where is it? Okay, I'm thinking about this, but I didn't get that last push that I needed to make sure this is exactly what I wanted to do. And I'm going to go back to all this list of things that K-State has in their favorite plus. I'm already committed there. I'm going to stick to my word. Or do you go the other way and you say, "Man, I'm in this last minute situation. "I really don't want to miss out on what could be." And I just, I think it just comes down to what type of decision-maker Lincoln Cura is. And either one is wrong, but it's just people are wired differently. And I think it comes down to maybe more so, are you the type of person that's going to play it safe in a last minute decision? Or are you somebody that you're going to kind of take that risk? And this is even less of a risk because obviously he's more than familiar with Oregon and the staff and everything at this point. But it's something to consider. So, I mean, I go the other way than you other than just, I know everybody wants to be defeatist and down. Oh, this is, this is so K-State for this to happen and say that it's just going to be Oregon. I don't know. My gut still leans that it ends up being K-State, but I think that just kind of goes to show where the situation's at that there's two of us right here. We have the exact same information and we both feel differently about it. So, it really is going to be a fascinating couple of days for K-State football following the linking cure situation. So. Yeah, if you think it's going to be over quick, I would urge you as not, we're probably going to have that drama up until the pointy signs on Wednesday. Yep, absolutely. So, all right, let's move on. Big 12 scoreboard real quick. Looking around the Big 12. We already talked a little bit about Colorado and Oklahoma State, plus they're getting ready to kick off here. So, the other games in the Big 12 tonight, Utah at UCF, that's the Fox Friday night game. The nights are nine and a half point favorites against Utah. What a gall meaningless game at this point. They're both four and seven. So, it's not like one of them's playing for a ball eligibility. This is just, I guess, to maybe feel better about yourselves. All I would say is like, I think the spread was around nine or 10 and this feels like a game where, like you said, they're both four and seven. I don't know that there's one team here, two possessions better than the other. I would just take Utah based on that. Yeah. Oh, it's just, you know, do you think Utah loses their eighth straight Big 12 game? Are they that? Yeah. And it's Utah, Utah probably down to, like I'm not even serious. Are they down to their sixth quarterback at this point? Feels like it. They're beat to hell there. Then Big 12 gets started early with two games on Saturday, 11 a.m. for KU at Baylor. The Jayhawks are one point favorites. And Texas Tech, three point home favorites against West Virginia. I would just take the home game and tech West Virginia. But to be honest, I do like, I want to just take the home team because it feels like when West Virginia was at home against, who were they playing not too long ago? Is it like TC? Baylor, they had the Baylor scored a million points with them in the first half. On West Virginia. Yeah. And they played UCF last week and won 31-21. Yeah, there was a game they had not long ago where everyone was like, oh, we're kind of close. I was like, I think West Virginia can take care of it. They won half Cincinnati and they were up two scores late in that game. Yeah, that might have been the game. It was probably Cincinnati where I was like, West Virginia will win because I like their coach more. And it just felt like they're headed in the right direction more. And I wouldn't want to take anything here. This is a game I would stay away from because usually the home team would prevail in this type of situation. But this feels like the West Virginia Cincinnati game or I would like say what you want about Neil Brown, I probably trust him more than Joey McGuire. And I feel better about where West Virginia is headed in Texas Tech. Yeah, no, it's a great point. And I'm kind of with you, you know, you would think tech can get this done. I think there's a real scenario where West Virginia is actually the better team than Texas Tech because of what you're saying. Yeah, absolutely. I think I trust Neil Brown a little bit more there. So I understand why West Virginia fans are probably ready to move on from Neil Brown. But I also think there's a world where Neil Brown is probably better than they give him credit for at the same time. So that'll be an interesting situation to document, you know, past this offseason or maybe beyond this offseason because there doesn't seem to be a lot of love between the two. And I understand Neil Brown does put his foot in his mouth sometimes when he's on the microphone. And that doesn't help even recently. Like, what was it? They were five and five and someone asked him to characterize their five and five years. And I think his first response was, well, we're not 0 and 10. Neil, come on, Neil, I like you, but don't say that. Yeah, I don't say that. That's exactly not what you want to say. OK, Baylor, two hot teams, I flip a coin. I probably like KU more because I think their hot streak is more. I think they're the better team. I'm not saying Baylor's hot streak is not as genuine. They're the more talented team. Yeah, but I think KU's is a product of what they should have been before the year. I mean, Baylor's is a product of we finally made a smart coaching move and figured out which quarterback to play it. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, no, I'm with you. I go KU here. And this was also the one where earlier I was like, man, I knew Baylor is playing well. I've liked what they've been doing, but they won five straight games. I don't think that they win six straight to close out their season. Yeah, I think they use trending in the right direction as well. I think KU wins this and it would be very fitting for them to have all this hype, feel like it's a lost season. And then at the end of the day, still go six and six and make their third straight bowl game, which is significant for them. Yeah, this is a thing where you kind of almost play the odds where you're like, can you definitely have enough talent to be six and six or better? So this wouldn't be crazy. Like does Baylor really have enough talent to win five straight games? You know, I don't know. Yeah, I don't know about that. So I'm with you. I'm leaning KU here. That is the way that I would go. And then moving on to 30 games, territorial cup, rivalry for Arizona and Arizona State. This is another one of those where Arizona, they've been so crappy this season, but they have the talent. And do you have the motivation in the rivalry game to get it done? I think this one ends up being closer than what people might expect. And if it ends and you've got Arizona as the winner, I'm not surprised. Yeah, I will say this. I don't think you have to worry about getting dilling him, coaching not to lose. I don't think that's in his, in his DNA. But I think you do have to worry about Arizona State because they have a bunch of dudes that will be in this position for the first time or they're finally getting the recognition and credit they deserve. So not only do they have to probably handle success in a spotlight for the first time because people are actually watching them and talking about them. So how do they respond to that? Some people don't handle that kind of success. Well, I don't have a problem. I don't have a lack of faith in the coaching staff, but the roster in general, this is new territory for them. And on the flip side, you're also doing it in a rivalry week for a team that hasn't really got up probably in two months, that will get up. And as you said, has the talent to catch you if you are having a problem with handling success. So I just worry about the game pressure, getting to the Arizona State roster when Arizona has, is playing with nothing to lose. And let's be honest, probably better top end talent. Yeah. Yeah, we're probably right there. Uh, and I would also just kind of think about with this game. Uh, I think Arizona State probably wins it, but it's, it's dicey. And when you said Kenny Dillingham's not going to coach to lose, he might coach to win though. And that might be the scary part of this. So be aware of that, uh, five o'clock TCU Cincinnati ESPN plus to close out the season, very fitting. The frogs are three and a half point favorites on the road. I'm taking TCU after what I saw from Cincinnati last week. Uh, TCU's also been just blasting teams with offense that are bad lately. And Cincinnati looked like a team that had quit at least on the defensive side of the ball. So I think it, I mean, if you're looking for something else, I don't know what TCU's team total is, but that feels like something that could be in play tomorrow. Yes, it definitely had a quit factor in Manhattan was it was at the third quarter that when DJ Gins was like in the corner and it looked like everybody took a business decision early fourth, but yes, it was like the first one of the first players of the fourth. That was one of the best, uh, most, I guess clear business decisions that I've ever seen in a college football case, TCU total was 31 and a half. Yeah, I'd take it. I think that's probably, I'm probably going to take TCU. But then again, if Cincinnati is it, if such that it doesn't have a bad first quarter, then the fact that you're playing for a bull, maybe manners at some point, I, I don't know if I'd love to bet on that game. I'd probably go your direction, um, but TCU's now, not a team. I want to put money at my own money on. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm like 55% certain that TCU kind of runs away with this thing. But yeah, you just can't fully trust a team like that. Like logic would tell me, go heavy on TCU. And if I had to pick one side, it's, it's there. But yeah, uh, the last game of the big 12 of the day, nine 15 on ESPN, Houston at BYU, the cougars are just being fed, uh, the kind of schedule that they want toward this season. Oh, yeah. BYU, not, not Houston. I, Caracat game day, Mitch was asking for our picks for this game. And I just said, I, because it was the last one and I was trying to be quick. And I said, give me the cougars and nobody pushed back on it. Nobody said anything until after we got done recording. And then they were like, oh, yeah, they're both kind of cougars. And I said, well, I take which, whichever one wins the game. So, uh, but you think about it, they played case state in that night game at home. They got Oklahoma state in that spot. They got the late game at Utah. Uh, they got the late game against Kansas. Now they get the late one against Houston. I think BYU probably handles this one. So I'm not going to go to our board with my, my process there. I'm just worried that the regression to the norm is hit. Yeah, it would be why you're because they. Like the, the actual like caliber team, I think BYU is. It can absolutely be vulnerable in this. Yeah. You're right. You're right about that. And Jake Red's laugh has gone back to being Jake Red's laugh with an LA UGH. Uh, because he's throwing some picks again, but we'll see. Uh, all right. Case state Iowa state time, give me if the cat's are to win your MVP on offense and defense in this game on offense. I would just say maybe, and it's a kind of a cop out and maybe, uh, uh, too obvious. I'll just say the offensive line. I thought about a tight end, um, because maybe you can get play action and pop one to the tight end that turns up to be a big play at some point. I think the Avery Johnson running big running game looks to be an obvious part of this game. I just think that it's so obvious that Iowa state will probably sell out to take it away. Can you still run the ball when that happens? So I'll go offensive line. Yeah. Yeah, I'm, I'm way through there. Uh, I, I'll go with Avery Johnson in this just because yeah, the run game's a part of it too, but there is going to be a point in this game where K state has to throw the ball and he's going to have to be really, really good against this Iowa state secondary. So again, rivalry games, you're trying to get some momentum. You put that on the quarterback. It's a cop out, but you're right going with the offensive line here. And then on the flip side of it defensively, it's got to be the secondary. And I think it's got to be somebody like Justice James or Vijay paint. Like we, I think we feel pretty good about Jacob Parrish and Markey Siegel and their respective spots on the defense. Although Siegel's struggled the last couple of weeks, he's probably played his two worst games of the season and back to back weeks picked on because they get him on it. Yeah, but like receiver for the other team, you know, Justice James, I think slightly out snapped Keenan Garber last week. So he's probably going to get more of the number two corner reps. And then Vijay Payne feels like the likely safety to step up. And he had some, you know, big tackles last week, but can we see the coverage step up because he struggled a little bit there this year. You know, he's got some of the, the crucial picks, but they kind of been balls that were thrown right to him. Um, I think you need those guys to step up for you on defense because that's where the game is going to be won or lost for K state on Saturday. I'll be honest. I hope Colby McAllister is healthy. He got hurt. And I think he returned to the game against, I can't remember way pretty well. Yeah. He went into the 10. It didn't look the most promising. I could be wrong. That'll be an item to watch because I'll be honest. Like, I don't let this sounds bad. The less Jordan Riley, the better. Um, and good kid, not a good player to share. So, um, I'll just put it that way. So that, that scares me. I just, I think you, you picked guys where there might be the most valuable or the, the most that you have to that you need to kind of rise up because that's what you kind of, because you're worried about it. Like you, you don't have to worry about Jacob Parrish, but you're like, can the other corner do good enough to maybe stop that Iowa state passing offense enough to win this game? I get it. That's what I would. I don't trust the secondary other than Jacob Parrish. Oh, like I'm not going to pick picking the up like, because I don't trust them. So if we want, if you want to stop that Iowa state passing game, I think the best way is to pressure Rocco back to make him as uncomfortable as possible. Uh, that was like the Colorado game where it's like, Oh, crap. This, this secondary against the Colorado passing game. Well, a couple of things out. One, Jimmy Horn and Travis Hunter got hurt that helped. And two, should do her Sanders. I don't think had one second of time to throw ball in that game. I think you got to have a similar game plan. Give me like, you know, it's random months last regular season game. I'll go him. I kind of wanted to go Toby because man, he's really hard to block. Sometimes in past, uh, past situations. And he had a good game against Colorado. Yeah. So, yeah, but those, those are two guys I'm looking at. Yeah. Right side is vulnerable in that Iowa state offensive line. Brendan Black is the, is the guard Tyler Miller is the tackle. That's often not. Yeah. And they, they, one guy has given up the most sacks of season on the offensive line. And the other has allowed the most pressures, but Iowa state has been pretty good about avoiding sacks in general. Only 14 of them allowed this year. That's tied for fourth best in the big 12 this season. But there are tight ends and running back struggle to block as well. Very similar to some of the struggles K state had at times. Um, so I think you just, you've got to try and pick your spots to really pepper the pressure and see if you get lucky there. Cause this is where my philosophy always goes to. You might get burnt no matter what you do with the way your secondary is playing. So at least try to maximize the opportunity. Yeah, exactly. Take, take your chances with some of the pressure and see how it goes. Uh, unfortunately for my pick in this game, K state over the last half of the season has basically said to us, they're probably not going to take care of business in this game. I think on the road, this is obviously a talented Iowa state team. Um, they've got too many things going for them that would suggest they can get this done against K state. They feel a little bit more consistent and reliable. I'm taking Iowa state to win this one 31 to 21. I'm a little different. Same winner, I have Iowa state, but I do feel like it could get a little 2022 ish in terms of the pace in the offensive play because it's going to be. Stupid cold. And when I say stupid cold, I mean stupid cold. And I think I don't think these teams have played a game under 50 degrees yet this year and all of a sudden it's going to be 10. So it's going to be a big departure from the norm in that regard that they haven't really had the experience doing Kansas state or Iowa state. I think I would say also realize this what's on the line feels a little bit of game pressure and I think Kansas state is probably playing a little bit like a team with nothing to lose because of that. I think Iowa state's offense sputters a little bit more than they typically do. And that's why it's 2022 ish. But I don't know if Kansas state throws the ball enough to win the game. And Iowa state has the best matchup in terms of explosiveness. They are really explosive on offense. Kansas state has a penchant for allowing explosive. So I could see Iowa state winning this game kind of like K. Steven in 2022 because of one big play, 17, 16 cyclones kick off. Tim supposed to be 22 degrees in Ames. It'll feel like 13 low winds, but it's going to be chilly down there in Jack tri stadium and I mean down there because you have to walk up the stadium and then go down to get to everything. So yeah, this is going to be a test for K state who has not really handled adverse conditions well under Chris Klimann over the last couple of seasons. Cold walk across the bridge. Yeah. Awesome. Gonna be honest, that it is going to be a really cold walk because that bridge is alone, not going to be a very fun time in Ames, Iowa. I fear we'll see. K state can win it. There are a lot of things that make this a winnable game for K state, but it just feels like kind of like what I always say, if a team tells you who they are, you better believe them in K state. More times than not this year has told us this just doesn't seem like a game that they're going to be able to take care of other than Colorado, I would say. Yeah, but this I was so long ago, this team is so different right now in terms of how they feel and how they're playing. So they got enough people wrong and we'll see if they have it in them. So all right, that will do it for us in this week's preview. And then a reminder that like D Y and I talked about signing day is coming on Wednesday, so we will have plenty of recruiting coverage over the next handful of days for you over at K S O. Drew and I are going to have a couple of recruiting shows next week. We'll kind of preview everything on Tuesday and then on Wednesday, we'll have a full blown signing day recap, talk about everybody in the class, break it all down, go a little bit longer there and we'll decide a time on when that's going to take place after Chris Klimann has his press conference. So that will do it for us today, though. We've got full coverage coming your way tomorrow from Ames, Iowa. For Derek Young, I'm Masonville. Thank you for watching and listening to K-State Online.