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PFT Live with Mike Florio

NFL Week 13 Picks: "I'm a-scared of Kirk-a-Cousins!"

Happy Thanksgiving! It's an early picks podcast as Mike and Chris break down maybe the best football week of the year. Can Tua win in the cold? Can the red hot Eagles win in Baltimore? And can the Bengals and 49ers (finally) win a must-win game? Plus, Chris tells a story about bringing his dog on a plane.
Duration:
1h 2m
Broadcast on:
27 Nov 2024
Audio Format:
other

(0:00) Aaron Jones has confirmed that players watch this show.

(9:40) THANKSGIVING: Bears at Lions

(13:10) Giants at Cowboys

(16:45) Dolphins at Packers

(18:45) BLACK FRIDAY: Raiders at Chiefs

(22:10) SUNDAY EARLY: Chargers at Falcons

(26:00) Steelers at Bengals

(28:00) Texans at Jaguars

(30:30) Cardinals at Vikings

(33:10) Colts at Patriots

(35:05) Seahawks at Jets

(37:05) Titans at Commanders

(40:00) SUNDAY LATE: Buccaneers at Panthers

(42:30) Rams at Saints

(44:40) Eagles at Ravens

(48:30) SNF: 49ers at Bills

(50:40) MNF: Browns at Broncos

(53:00) Best Bets & Folsom Prison Blues

Carreon is an edge-of-your-seat action thriller that follows a young TSA agent who's blackmailed into an impossible situation at the height of Christmas Eve travel pandemonium. Either let a dangerous package slip through security and risk the lives of many, or save the passengers and risk the life of his pregnant girlfriend. Starring Taryn Edgerton, Sofia Carson, and Jason Bateman, Carreon is a holiday thrill ride with nail-biting non-stop action and suspense. Watch Carreon only on Netflix December 13th. Rated PG-13. The holiday season is here, and it's the perfect time for family gatherings and celebrating with plenty of delicious food. If you're the kind of person who loves not only preparing meals, but also watching cooking shows, reading cookbooks, and listening to music while you cook, Amazon Prime has you covered. It brings all of these experiences together, making your holidays much easier and enjoyable. 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Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliate's national average 12-month savings of $744 by new customer surveyed, who saved with Progressive between June 2022 and May 2023. Potential savings will vary. Discounts not available in all states and situations. Chris and I do a Pips podcast every week. I picked the Bears to win the game, and Aaron Jones made sure he said to me, "We do see stuff, we do read stuff, and we saw." That was Sunday Night Football Night in America. Aaron Jones, when I talked to him after the Vikings over time win against the Bears 30-27, I was wrong straight up, but I was right against the spread. Thank you half point. Yeah, thank you bullshit ass cover. Thank you half point. Hey, baby. Hey, baby. I'll take it, but I got him on the phone and he went right into it. He pivoted right into it. I asked him a question. He gave me a short answer, and that's when he said, "By the way, by the way, we do read stuff, we do see stuff, and we know that you picked against us." Well, that's good. I'm glad that's happening because I do want them to know that, and I think they need to start to know that your least favorite team in football is some Minnesota Vikings. So, I think we're going to continue this on and kind of beat this into Minnesota. That's not true. That part's not true. They're not your favorite team. They're not your favorite team. That's for sure. That's not. They can't be with the way you act, the way we have so many people that are peeping you on Sunday now that have seen your actions to say, "I don't really think he likes the Vikings, but he wears a Viking sweatshirt on Monday morning after they win. I don't get it." Well, look, you can't pick your family. Now, you can shun your family if you choose to. Certain NFL quarterbacks have done that, but I still accept that it's my family, even if my family fucking pisses me off. So, I've had 50 years of my family disappointing me, and now I finally understand those obituaries that you see once or twice a year where someone says something about Vikings being or whatever the favorite team, six of the players being Paul Barrow so they can let him down one more time or something like that. You get to a point where your soul is scarred by it. My soul is scarred by it, and Holly and I earlier today on PFT Live, we were picking up DMC and again. You got to do that. We were. I just paid for it. I may as well wear it, but what was my point? Oh, we were determining the teams that are actual contenders, and the Vikings are not on my list of contenders to actually win the Super Bowl. No way. No way. There's four or five serious contenders, a couple of other maybe Vikings. No, I hear you there. I don't disagree with that statement or sentiment. The Vikings are good. I think they're gonna be a pain in the ass if they get in the playoffs. We know Sam Darnold is a still like question mark to a degree, even though the play seems to be getting better. They're one of those where hey, they might win a game in the playoffs. Maybe they win too, and we get surprised they're at the NFC Championship game. I don't really expect that to happen either Mike. I'm with you there. Yeah, I don't look at him as a Super Bowl contender. I look at him as more of a playoff team that can maybe win a game. Maybe too if lucky. By the way, this is the PFT PM Chris Sims on button picks podcast delivered by little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the National Football League. A pizza pizza. I got the crazy puffs last week. I sent the photographic evidence and they are awesome. They are awesome. They are awesome. And I felt bad. It's very easy to order, got online, found my local store, punched in the order for the crazy puffs. I got the pepperoni and cheese. They have a couple of different types. Yeah, I got pepperoni and cheese, $3.99 for four of them. And it's like, I can't like going to drag my ass all the way to little Caesars. And I'm only spending $3.99 plus tax. So I got some wings too. The wings were awesome. You only got four of those things. You just got the one winner. You just got one. You just said four. That's it. I'm not going to eat any more than that. It's one person. I don't need eight of them. What am I going to do? I don't know. They're going this big. I mean, okay. All right. No, they're they're like little pepperoni and cheese muffins and four were perfect. Okay. All right. And the wings and I watched the Steelers in the Browns last Thursday night and it would have been a better outcome of the Steelers. It won that game, but it was still an enjoyable evening. Thank you to the Caesars for my $3.99 crazy puffs and the wings that were surprisingly good. Okay. You bet you have a read. I do. Yeah. Speaking of dogs like Mike Florio, okay, who you know, pulls up bull crap underdog picks by the Minnesota Vikings. All right. Yeah. The dog show. It's coming. The national dog show presented by Purina features the top dogs in the country competing for best in show. Watch on Thanksgiving at 12 p.m. Eastern. That will be on one of the screens in my house for sure right after the parade and on NBC and Peacock. I mean, to me, I love it. Look at that. Woo. Man. That's that's all you gave me. Toto. Okay. I didn't get Bentley. I got Toto. All right. I really look like a werewolf there. I do like Sasquatch. I love you having the dog the dog show on though. I mean, one of my favorite thing just Thanksgiving morning, getting up parade, you know, maybe go to a high school football game early in the morning. And then I like, of course, gonna have lions bears on a TV, but a side TV in the kitchen or something like that, the dog show will be on for, you know, some of my nephews, my niece, my daughter, all of that. So we get, we get plenty of NBC viewing time on Thanksgiving. My favorite part of being in the airport every week is the dogs I see there. And I, like, I don't know if it bothers people when you start talking to their dogs or like tell them, Hey, your dogs, you know, like nobody says, Hey, your dog's ugly. I, but like how are your dogs so cute? They seem to appreciate that that you notice their dog because they love their dog. And I feel that way not that we can take Macy anywhere, but I love traveling because I see the dogs and I want to pet the dogs and talk to the dogs and they remind me of my dog. So have I told you that I like illegally brought my last German shepherd on a plane a few times and passed him off as a service dog? Have I ever told you that story? I think you did. I did just take them on and say it's a service dog. Yeah. And it says no to Sasquatch. It's amazing. It's amazing. It walks on to the plane. Do whatever the hell you want. Well, it's hilarious. You put, you put a, you put one of those orange vests on them and then people don't even like, I had a few people tell me like, Hey, you put an orange vest on that shepherd. They won't even ask. They're just going to think he's a service dog. So one year we were kind of having some trouble flights back from Tennessee back to New York to see my mom and dad and go see the family and all that. And we, I rolled the dice and tried it. I put on a damn orange vest. Of course, a German shepherd, very smart. All right. He goes through. I mean, he's smart enough to where I could say sit. I do the walk through the metal detector. He'll wait for me. Then he'd walk through himself. When he passed that test, they were like, Okay, this guy's smart. We don't need to do it. But I did hit like a little spot where I got on the plane. And this might have been one of my best moves of all time, right? Little reverse psychology, where the stortist then gets on. And I've had nobody ask me for papers yet. People at the desk when you get your ticket, right? And check the luggage. Nobody has security. Nobody has asked anything about the dog. I get on the plane. And the stortist goes, Well, can I see your papers for the dog? And I went, Oh, I mean, how many times do I have to show these papers? I mean, Oh my gosh. And I and she looked at me and she went, Well, if you got this far, okay, you're good. And she said, she said, she's down. Wow, man, thinking on his feet. Yeah, I'm thinking on his feet. That was a good one. That was a good one. See, this is the problem with 12 years of Catholic school. The guilt gene, the guilt instinct is so deeply embedded in me. I could never bring myself to do that. And one of the tricks to life, one of the life hacks is always act like wherever you are, you're supposed to be there. If you act natural, nobody's ever going to say anything to you. That's very true act like you're supposed to be there. I did have a first class ticket to. I think that helped things along, right? Yep. But all right. I know we got to get back to picks. Let's get going. Check out the dog show. Yeah. Produced by the incomparable Alexa Casey. Yes. Thanksgiving. And if you are watching this pics podcast after the dog show, well, you're shit out of luck that you miss. It's your own fault. Okay. Let's we had the recap up very briefly. I can't believe I was better against the spread. I can't even believe that either. I have it. It helps when you're six and seven straight up. What the fuck? But eight and five against the spread. And I knew some of these dogs were hit like we picked the Chiefs to win. Panthers to cover that. That was a double. Yes. But I picked the Bears to cover and win. So I'm wrong on the win, but I'm right on the cover. So I got a few of those last week. You're catching up straight up. You're only behind by four with six weeks left. You might catch me. I hope so. I'm damn trying to. I'd like to win two out of those three columns. I know that. All right. By the way, every week this season, you can play along with us. DraftKings has set up the free $1,000 Florio and Sims pick and pull pick every game against the spread for a chance at a $1,000 prize pool every week. Download the DraftKings app, click on the pools tab and enter the Florio and Sims free $1,000 pick and pull to make your picks. And just like us, you must enter all of your picks before kickoff or the first game this week. Not Thursday night. I got to do it by Thanksgiving, 12, 30 Eastern when the Bears and the Lions kicked the ball. Let's start there. The Lions haven't won on Thanksgiving since 2016. Now, the first four or five, I get it. They were ass. The past couple of years, a little surprising, they haven't managed to win on Thanksgiving. They've got the Bears coming to town who have won three in a row in Detroit on Thanksgiving, but the Lions are favored by 10 over under 48 and a half. Detroit is an NFL best 92 against the spread this season. And you have picked them to win every single week. Do you have the guts to pick the Bears to upset the Lions? I don't. I don't. But I, you know, the one thing that I think is dicey is the 10 point spread. I think that's where it is dicey one. We've seen teams and I think I've been a part of this too. I was on a Tennessee Titan team that went up to Detroit and played them in a Thanksgiving day game. Thanksgiving day game is special in an NFL facility. It is a game where a team that's on the road like the Bears who hasn't won a football game in a while goes, Hey, this is our last time to show everybody what we got. Hey, they're better than us, right? Maybe we need to come out and do some things we don't normally do trick plays, maybe be more aggressive in the past game or whatever. We saw Green Bay take that approach last year going into Detroit, you know, later in the year, right? Just, Hey, let's let it fly. Let's let it go. I know. Well, that wasn't on Thanksgiving. Was that Thanksgiving last year, Green Bay? Yes, it was right. So the same type of attitude. That's what I'm talking about. I think there is an element there. And then I, you know, again, shorter week, I always you always hear me say this. The team with the more talented coaches, the more creative coaches are at the disadvantage in this type of week. Let alone you're the team that goes, Hey, wait, we're better. We don't need to, you know, reinvent the wheel and all that. I do think we're going to get a last ditch effort here from the Chicago Bears. They're on national TV. I went back and forth through the spread. Of course, I'm going to pick the lions to win the football game, but I'm going to take them and I'm going to have them cover. I'm going to go 28 17, even though I thought about going on the other end of that just a little bit. I do think the Bears, the way their offenses plan, their defense is still a bit of a pain in the ass. I think they can hang around and make this interesting for all of us on Thanksgiving early afternoon. But you're still picking the lines covered. I am. I am. I went back and forth with that. I did. I'm going to go with the lion's cover and just barely. All right. You confuse me there. I'm going 38 20. I think the fact that the lions haven't won on Thanksgiving since 2016 and the fact that they're able to put the pedal to the metal against pretty much everyone and how many of these heartbreaking losses can you take until you just just get out of your own dime. Right. And short week after losing on the last play of the game to the Vikings lose the game right to the Packers. They've lost three times in the past five games on the last play of the game. I think that this may be one of those where they just can't spirits willing, flesh is weak. They need that little break on the back end. And I don't think that I don't think because the bears don't make these changes during the season. But you get you get blown out by the lions. I mean, we saw what happened a few years ago. Matt Patricia got fired the day after a Thanksgiving loss. So I don't think it's going to happen. I think it's more likely in my score, by the way, 38 20. If I haven't said it, I apparently have unless Pete can read minds because he has it in the document. This next game, Giants Cowboys. Cowboys only favored by three and a half with an over under of 37. That's the lowest of the week with 92% of the spread money on the Cowboys. This is one that I think, if they would, if the, if the Giants would get embarrassed again, I wonder what happened. I agree with you there. I agree with you there. There's definitely a thought in my mind that if they get dominated or made to look, you know, less than get embarrassed whatever, that that could be the end of this whole regime there in New York. I'm with you there. It's going to be interesting to see. You know, this is one again, a little bit. I'm a little surprised to see the spread this close. I know Dallas isn't very good, but I do think last week, what we saw is Cooper Rush in the offense turn the corner. Cooper Rush got comfortable. They moved the ball consistently last week against the Washington defense consistently. I mean, it might not have resulted in touchdowns and everything that way, but it was field goals. It was solid drives and some good throws by Cooper Rush. They ran the ball. Okay. So I think he settled in and then the defense somewhat healthy there in Dallas. And you see, when they have to run bland at corner, okay, to go along with digs. And I know digs is a little banged up and we'll see if he can play here. I think he should be able to. And then you couple that with Michael Parsons, you know, back healthy, create and have it doing that. I think the Cowboys win this football game. Plus, we don't even know the quarterback situation for the Giants. Tommy DeVito beat the shit last week, probably sore as hell. And hey, ding, ding, ding. And that was one week he had a deal with it. How do you think Daniel Jones felt from three years of dealing with it? Like 10 weeks in a row, just get crushed. That's how big and like strong Daniel Jones is. Tommy DeVito played one game and he's like, holy crap, I'm not sure I can play again next week. I'm going to go giant. I mean, our Cowboys 24 17, Mike. I've got Cowboys 30 to 17. So we both have the Cowboys winning and covering the spread. I think it's fishy that the injury report did not mention Tommy DeVito at all on Monday on Sunday on Tuesday. He's limited with a forearm. I think they're trying to pivot to drew lock. They're trying to reclaim the locker room. I think they've lost the locker room, not the coaching staff, the organization. When you bench the best quarterback on the team, because you're trying to avoid owing him 23 million next year, not because you're trying to win football games, you skip over the next guy on the hierarchy and everything in football is about depth charts where you stand, right? And you skip over that guy and go to the go to you want some gob of ghoul and you want people to get excited, that that's not going to sit well with the players who know who's one who's two and who's three. So I think we're going to I have a feeling. Yeah, no, I hear you. It feels like toothpaste back in the bottle. Like Pete Demolitis, you know, sitting here producing this right now, he'll tell you Carl Banks, who works for the Giants, he's trying to tell the public right now that Tommy DeVito beat out drew lock. That's why he's starting. Oh, wait, but didn't we see Daniel Jones get hurt during the year and the backup came in and it was drew lock. So that sounds like an organizational toothpaste back in the bottle. Whole thing going on right now. Very weird, very odd. And yeah, how could you not lose the locker room to a degree in some of those guys with crap like that? By the way, you probably have seen this by now at PFT or elsewhere, but the aforementioned Daniel Jones signing with the Minnesota Vikings practice squad. And that was one of the things we said Sunday night football night America signed with a practice squad, not a roster. And if a starter gets injured elsewhere, he can sign with the 53 man roster of any team at any time operating from that Vikings practice squad. Okay. The dolphins at the Packers, best game, best game on Thanksgiving, low bar, but the dolphins have won three in a row. The Packers are eight and three, their three losses. Our two teams will combine five losses for the entire season. Over under his 47 Packers are favored by three and a half. It's going to be cold. It's going to be winter. Can the dolphins show game offense operate effectively enough to pull off the victory? Yeah, I'll be I'm going to be interested to see too. To me, the interesting thing in the matchup is I do think the Packers will be able to somewhat contain the dolphins offense and what they do there. Right? We've had a few conversations, you and I about like we're at the part of the year where it's a you are who you are. Green Bay is one of those teams that I would say not exactly. They have even more potential than what they are at eight and three. They could be the team that upsets a lions or an Eagles and gets to the NFC Championship game and messes that match up and maybe goes to the Super Bowl. There's high end moments of play there. And as I've said all year, I'm extremely impressed that there are eight and three with really B minus quarterback play to this moment. Does that turn? We'll see. That's going to be the big test there is Green Bay's offense versus that Miami defense that's played really well. Green Bay's defense has settled in really nicely. They got talent everywhere. And again, I just think, yeah, that Miami's sideline to sideline throw, short throw, all of that plus the weather and conditions, all that I am going Green Bay in this one 24 20. I've got the Packers 2823. We both have Green Bay covering. And again, again, I look at the spreads ahead of time. That may be news to some of you. No, no, it's not news to anybody. Listen, I didn't because I wouldn't never guess. I would never guess it was only three and a half. I figured it'd be six, five and a half. I thought maybe maybe I was picking the dolphins to cover, but alas, that's not the case. So 2823 narratives sometimes are narratives for a reason. And I don't see the dolphins breaking the narrative that they struggle when you get them in the cold. That flashy offense doesn't travel like a defense in a running game would. All right, Black Friday, three o'clock Eastern Raiders at the Chiefs. Raiders beat the Chiefs Christmas Day last year. It's the last time they lost other than the bills lost a couple of weeks ago. Biggest spread of the week minus 12 with an over under a 42 and a half despite being 10 and one Kansas City is five and six against the spread. Do they win and cover or not cover this week? Well, yeah, I'm going to have both there, win and cover. Now, I mean, I don't know if I think it's going to be like pretty and sexy or anything like that. I don't expect that. I kind of think it's just going to be a slow beatdown. I do have like, like you've heard me say a million times. I have respect for the Raiders defense. They can play man, they can play some intricate zones. They can give you issues that way. The big problem with this matchup is really the other side of the ball for the Raiders. I mean, Aidan O'Connell is thrusted into the starting position here. He's barely practiced since being back from thumb surgery. Now he's going to go into Kansas City and play them, right, who I'd like to think they're going to be motivated and ready to go for not playing high level football here as late. But we'll see. Again, the Kansas City, the defense, what we've seen the last few weeks, it's not the same. It's not. We're not seeing anybody in the front seven really pop or make any plays really on a regular basis. And as you've heard me say, people are sleeping on the fact that last year they had two of the three best corners in football on the same team in McDuffey and Lagerius need. They've had to change how they attack and do certain coverages that way. But nonetheless, I don't think it's going to matter in this game. The Raiders are fighting still, but just not talented enough on the offensive side of the ball and defense will be kind of the same way. I'm going Chiefs 2813. I think back to last Thursday night, Browns woeful pitiful. Yeah, two and eight. I think they were going into that game. Steelers coming to town. Divit, but the divisional game divisional game 12 points bread is too much for a divisional game. I think the Chiefs win. I won't be 100% stunned if they lose because the Raiders went in there beat them last year, although that probably favors the Chiefs not being caught unprepared for the second straight time, but it's that holiday feel the Raiders are struggling. I think the Raiders keep it within the 12. I've got Kansas City 23 17. I think the Chiefs win, and yet again, they ought to cover the spread. All right, let's take a break because we've got plenty more games to get to. No buys this week, six next week, no buys this week. So we'll get to the Sunday games when PFTPM and Christians on button continue right after this. Carry on is an edge of your seat action thriller that follows a young TSA agent who's blackmailed into an impossible situation at the height of Christmas Eve travel pandemonium. Either let a dangerous package slip through security and risk the lives of many or save the passengers and risk the life of his pregnant girlfriend. Starring Taryn Edgerton, Sophia Carson, and Jason Bateman, Carry on is a holiday thrill ride with nail biting nonstop action and suspense. Watch Carry on only on Netflix December 13 rated PG 13. When it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. 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The PFT PM Chris Simms Unbuttoned picks podcast delivered by little Caesar's the official pizza sponsor of the NFL pizza pizza pizza and a box of crazy posts for only three 99 so cheap. You'll feel compelled to buy something else like I did. Early games on Sunday the chargers two and a half point favorites taken on the Falcons who are emerging from there by this is another one of those. I don't really love chargers short week cross country Falcons 14 days to get ready to play. I know they can't address everything, but that just seems like too much of a preparation disparity. Does that give the Falcons the edge? Does that help them win to get the seven and five? Yeah. Well, I mean, you'd think you'd like to think the Falcons are going to adjust or recalibrate a little bit after getting their butt swept the way they did in Denver before the bi week. So yeah, this is a big football game for them. We know the NFC South is still very much upper grab. So they're not desperate that way. But they're getting to the point where they start to lose games like this. They're going to be, oh, wait, if we don't win the NFC South, we can't even get in the playoffs in general. We have to win the South. So we'll see where that goes. Now, here's my big thing. And I think this is a toss up type football game. You know, the chargers, what we've seen their defense is good. We know that, right? We saw Baltimore run the ball on them a little bit last week. I worry about doesn't land to be it can Atlanta run the ball on the chargers, right? The week before that the chargers we saw Joe Burrow make some big time plays and kind of surgically dissect them even though I think it was more big time plays than anything else. So that worries me. But I do think this is a game where the chargers will be able to run on the Falcons a little bit. And I do think you could throw the ball on the Falcons too. I'm going to take the chargers to bounce back. This one was a tough one for me. I went back and forth and I am scared that Kirk Cousins is going to kind of eight yards, seven yards, eight yards, do that type of thing to the chargers. I think it's a real possibility. But regardless, I'm going chargers 2723. I just think they're the better team. Did you deliberately go with scared? Scared? I know. I kind of came out. It didn't mean to know. It kind of just came out that way. I know. It was like a Kirk of Cousins and I scared. But I didn't mean to do that. I'm scared of a Kirk of Cousins. Yeah, this one, I don't, I don't have a great feeling for it. I think the chargers are the better team. I also thought they were the better team than the Ravens. And what did that get me? I feel like the chargers understand the stakes of this one. There's a neat little subplot here. Because Harbaugh was closing in on getting the Vikings job. And there's a theory out there that players mobilized to get ownership off of Harbaugh led by led by Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins. And Jim Harbaugh would say knows that. If it's true, it's just a little something extra. Not quite Zimmer cousins, but still, there's a little something there. More importantly, the chargers need to reestablish themselves. I think the chargers are still a pretty damn good team. It's just little brother isn't ready to be big brother at Ping Pong. So I think the chargers can go on the road. They win this game 23 14. The Falcons kind of are who they are at this point. They're the team that lost 38 six. Yes, they have moments against division rivals that they know. Well, you get them cross conference. Not as easy. And I think they're going to be in for a surprise with the chargers, even though the chargers are on a bit of a, of a preparation deficit. Atlanta feels like a team that beats the teams they should be. But I don't know if they're going to be in any of the teams that are as good or better than them. That's what it feels like. And I know they beat the Eagles in week two, but yeah, no business doing. I get it. But all the other losses, everybody knows what I'm saying there. I was saying this earlier in the week, if if the coin toss goes the other way on the Thursday night and if they have boundary cameras at the Tampa Bay stadium, they may have lost both of those games and be five and six now or four and seven. Okay. The steel is at the Bengals. Bengals coming off the bi-week three point favorites against Pittsburgh, which, which got outstealer by the Browns last Thursday night. Do the Steelers avoid their second two game losing streak of the season? Do the Bengals finally, they're desperate, they're going to win. They're going to win. Oh, they lost. Oh, they're desperate. They're going to win. They're going to win. Oh, shit, they lost. Do they finally in their last act of desperation, get a win against the Steelers three point favorites, 48 and a half over on that. That's, I mean, that that's it too. I mean, part of this is like, yeah, are they something going to change after the bi-week? Are they going to buckle in a little bit more here? I don't know. I mean, I know that Joe Burrow is going to put up big numbers and they're going to throw the ball really well and Jamar Chase and T Higgins are going to be a handful. I know that and I worry about Pittsburgh on that side of the ball being able to handle that. But at the same time, I also feel like at some point, they'll make a mistake. Joe will get a lucky strip sack fumble or he might try to force a ball into a window and the ball gets tipped up in the air, intercepted. I mean, or just whatever running back thumbles. The other aspect is it just, I do think Pittsburgh can move the ball on Cincinnati. I expect to see that a little bit here. I don't know. I'm going to go more on a ping pong table in the locker room and all that's not going to fix the Bengals issues. I've heard that this week. No, they are who they are. They will be fun to watch and this will be exciting game, but I think at some point they're going to screw it up and I'm going to go with that. I'm going to go the Steelers 24 20. I don't think they're going to lose two in a row. They should have won last week with that stupid grounding call that wasn't called in the Cleveland game. They are who they are and they are a team that continues to be cheap. Paying Joe burrow doesn't make you not cheap. They blew it with Jesse Bates. They blew it with Joe mixed and they blew it with T Higgins. They're potentially going to blow it with Jamar Chase. It's too many things to come together to make up for the flaws on defense. I think the Steelers get the win and I have 23 to 20. So we're on the same page. We're just off by one point. Texans at the Jaguars. Texans go on the road after getting embarrassed at home by the Titans are five point favorites because the Jaguars team that had a buy for some reason Doug Peterson wasn't fired. There's a theory out there that if that basically the message to Sean Con from Bill Belichick was if you want to have any shot at me, you don't fire your coach during the season because Belichick hates it when coaches get fired during the season. Regardless, Peterson is still there. They're five point hundred dogs at home with a 43 and a half over under who you got. Well, I mean, of course, I got Houston, right? But another one where like, I don't, you know, you don't trust Houston right now. How can you? The biggest issue is just that I don't trust anything on the Jacksonville offense. And then you're going to have a Houston defense who didn't play well last week and let up some big plays that I think is going to be on their P's and Q's and dot their eyes and cross their T's and be all over that stuff this week. So I don't expect them to be able to move the ball that way, right? And then I think, and we haven't seen Mac Jones in that offense really look good yet since he's been at the helm. Defensively, again, I don't like the Jaguars D. There's more talent than where they're ranked as far as defenses are ranked in football. That's it's a shame that way. And that's why guys like Belichick want that job because they're like, man, there's talent on this football team. There's no way they should have this record. But here's the thing that scares you a little bit. It's just Houston's offense in general. I'm sick of hearing everybody going, what's wrong with CJ Stradd? It's not CJ Stradd, everybody just stopped that. The guy who can like literally dot an I with a 70 yard throw and but it's not him. They have institutional problems there. It happens every week. He's under pressure crazy every week. Now they're getting the point where it looks like they can't run the freaking ball either. I'm going to take them to win this game because the Jaguars are dysfunctional. But I don't think it's going to be like easy and pretty 24 16 Texans. Yeah, look, I I don't believe in the Texans against teams that are playoff contending caliber. I'm not ready to abandon ship simply because they lost a flooky game at home to the Titans. I think the Titans kind of scrappy. Yeah, and and top two deep that's in football. Right. And right to the extent the Titans over are the Texans. Excuse me, overlook the Titans. They're not going to overlook the Jaguars. That got their attention. I think the Texans get back on the right track this week. They win 28 20. I have them covering and winning outright. You have the same. We both have eight point vectors. All right, Cardinals at the Vikings. The Cardinals lost 16 to six this past weekend. Same score is Super Bowl nine score. I'll never forget as long as I live and possibly beyond the Vikings are at home on a fall on a four game, not five yet, four game winning streak, three and a half point favorites. Again, who that half point at half point did some work for me last week. Maybe that half point to do some work for me again. The Vikings again at home and over under a 45. Who do you like? Yeah, listen, this is an I think these there's an incredible week of some close matchups. Right. I mean, we've kind of already hit Falcons, Chargers. I mean, it's it's coin toss, Steelers, Bengals. It's kind of coin toss. Right. This is another one where I look at it and go, yeah, Becky's favorite by three, but but I don't sit here and go, Oh man. Yep. Oh, I see something I like. This is going to be a best bet here. No way. I mean, I think the Vikings are the better football team. The Vikings do find a way to let teams kind of hang around or make a mistake almost every game. It's never really impressive. Now, Arizona, I think the thing I worry about with them in this game is not being able to run the football. Like we saw last week when they can't run the football and they couldn't do it against Seattle and I don't think they're going to be able to do it against Minnesota. It really changes their offense. It does. So I just I don't know if I can expect enough plays in the passing game from Kylo Murray and Harrison and Trey McBride to carry them home. And I still think this is a Vikings offense that's dangerous. And I think really in a lot of ways has done some high level stuff. Right. Again, last week, it's fair to wonder Aaron Jones doesn't fumble on the one yard line going in right away to start the game. I mean, how does that game change? You guys have moments in Minnesota of looking like a high functioning, awesome football team. I hope last week is the jump off of that. I'm going to go Vikings 2820 at home. I think at home is just a big difference maker for me in this this whole thing too. Three straight home games to Cardinals, Falcons, Bears after three straight on the road. And again, they've won four in a row. I think that a couple of weeks ago, I would have felt differently about this game. I wasn't impressed by what the Cardinals did in Seattle. And you know how I am. I picked the Cardinals last week to win. You picked the Seahawks. The Seahawks won. So I'm kind of pissed at the Cardinals now. I was happy with the Cardinals and I'm pissed at the Cardinals. That makes me more inclined to pick against them. And I try to set that aside, but sometimes I just can't. And also if the Vikings are paying attention, I believe in you this week. Next week, we'll see you when Kirk and cousins comes home. Yeah, I believe in them. 2017. I believe in you until the third quarter until you make a mistake. And I say, say, that's why they're just not good. They're just not good. I have already seen this movie. They're going to blow it in the fourth quarter. Cult sit Patriots. Remember when Chris Ballard declared the rivalry is back on? Well, it isn't much of a rivalry, but the Colts are favored by two and a half against a waffle New England team. They are three and eight for the second straight year. That hasn't happened since before Robert Kraft even bought the team over under his 42 and a half. The Colts are eight and four against the spread, even though they're five and seven. Do the Colts win? Do they cover in New England? I do. The Colts are going to win. Yeah, I do feel that. You know, the Colts are playing with a little bit of edge there. Their offense can be dangerous as we talked about. It's consistency. That's the issue. They can break off a big run. They can break off some jaw dropping big passes by the big guy Anthony Richardson. It's just, you know, it's consistency on that side of the ball, but it's the same thing for for New, uh, New England. I don't, you know, again, Drake May's been good, but it's all over the place with mistakes too. I just don't trust them that way. I think they'll be able to move the ball and they should be able to run the ball a little bit on the Colts, but ultimately I, I've always liked Shane Steichen's playing of attack and what he does on the offensive side of the ball. I think they'll have enough there. I'm going to say they win this one 24 17. I shouldn't be loading up on pasta and meatballs this close to Thanksgiving, but and I've, I've had way too much faith in the Patriots this year than I should. Yes, you have. This is one of those. This is a gut feeling game for me. I feel like they're due. I feel every time I'm, I'm ready to say Gerard Mayo is going to be one and done. He's going to talk his way out of a job. They turn it around. I, I feel like, you know, the tour radical with Anthony Richardson, the Patriots will make them pay if they are inconsistent offensively. Kind of a, you know, cold day grinded out, tough it out 20 to 15. Patriot win. All right. I'm sticking with it. We finally disagreeing hands off the checker. We finally disagree. All right. Seahawks at the Jets. Some news that broke this morning. Tyrant Smith, their tackle likely heading to IR, Breece Hall, their star running back may not be playing this weekend. The Jets are at least not, they're not favored. Finally, the Seahawks are favored by two over, over, under or over wonder of 41 and a half. Who you got? Yeah. I mean, those are, those are big injuries. The bigger one. I mean, Breece Hall is the one I look at because, I mean, he's, this is the, this is a three yard passing offense or a minus three yard passing offense and run for some positive yards. And Breece Hall, that's what he does for them. So yeah, that's an issue there, right? They need to, they're going to have to have plays in the passing game. We talked about Seattle's defense four or five weeks ago. It's a different defense right now. It's different. They've changed some things up in the secondary. They're playing a little bit more, man. All right. And on the front, you've heard me say a few times over the last two weeks, they're healthy and they got a bunch of ass kickers on their front seven. Now again, I put Draymond Jones, Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy as far as three big guys on a D line up there with anybody. I mean, that is a group right there. So I don't see the Jets being able to run the football. I don't think they're short passing game. Bullshit's going to work this week, right? I think the Seattle coaching, coaching staff is going to be motivated to have Gino have a good homecoming to shove it up the Jets fans who all shit on him for a number of years there when he was there. So I like that. And they found a spot for Jackson Smith and Jigma on a weekly basis. And if the Seahawks can run, which everybody runs on the Jets, they're really dangerous Seahawks 27 24. Yeah, I love the Gino Smith angle. One of the former Jets quarterbacks who was ruined by the franchise gets a chance to come back. The Seahawks are playing for something. The Jets are just playing to J E T S just in the season. Seahawks 20 to 17. Oh, I paused for a second and thought it was a cover for the Jets. No, no. Two point spread. Seahawks win Seahawks cover. Last one in the early window tightens at the commanders. Commanders have kind of fallen off a bit lately. The Titans are two and nine against the spread this year, but they did cover last week against the Texans by winning the game outright. Commanders favored by five and a half over under 44.5. Who you got? Well, I think this game will be closer than people think. All right. That's the first thing I'm going to say. Here's here's like all the issues we've talked about with the commanders, lack of innovation, lack of moving receivers around, lack of finding ways to throw the ball down the field, all that. It's all coming home to roost. Those are the things we worried about. The run game has fallen off a little bit here as of late. The Titans defense, as you hear me say every week, it is awesome. It's awesome. People got to start giving to Nard Wilson their defense coordinator a little credit out there. He's one of the better defensive coaches in all the football. I mean, they're balling there. I don't see it where I look at the commanders being able to move the ball on the Titans defense like very easily, not at all. And then again, you've always heard me say, and I think we're getting back into where commanders really are as a football team. Their defense is not super talented. They're not. And I would scare me a little bit. Tennessee's got a little mojo going on in the offensive side of the ball. They're not consistent, but they make big plays here almost every week. Been running the ball a little bit better. I'm going with the upset in this one. I'm going Titans win this one. Wow. 2017 in Washington. Wow. I'm not. I'm not ready to go that far with the Titans. And I think that like, they lose three in a row. They win one. They lose. They haven't won two in a row all year. They only got three wins all season long. I always feel like last week's game fills their tank for a little while. The commanders are starting to get a little desperate. They blow this one. They have to start worrying about not making the playoffs at all. They got some other tough games coming up. I think they understand the stakes. I think they get focused. They should have beaten the Cowboys last week. They fell off a little bit. They were competitive against the Eagles. Even though they've reached some struggles, I still think they're better than people are now giving them credit for. I got them 24 to 16 winning this one. So we disagree on a couple of games so far this week. We're going to take a break. 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I picked Tampa to cover you were loving a Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You'll love them. That's my new favorite team. My new favorite NFC team. I'm going to, I should have worn my Tampa Bay Buccaneers cream sickle hoodie. Who you like in this one? Again, bucks by six, 46 and a half over under. Yeah, I mean, I like the bucks to win the football game and the spread there. It's debatable. I'm going to have the bucks covering the spread. I am, but, but like, you know, I don't feel comfortable. It's not going to be a best bet. Tampa's offense has been impressive. Baker Mayfield, the way he just throws the ball with such confidence, aggression makes plays that way. Really impressive. Carolina's offense been better. Hey, that old line, they, they, they force people to defend that run. They're pretty patient with it. And we've seen Bryce Young certainly settle in and start to become a really, you know, I don't want to say high functioning NFL quarterback, but a pretty, pretty damn good quarterback for sure to this point. I think they'll hang around and all that, but I just think Tampa poses too many problems right now. And now the fact that Evans is back in the lineup and the fact that they've worked some of these other guys into the passing game, it makes them dangerous on that side of the ball. 3124 bucks. Yeah, I have something similar. I had my, my, my email up that I sent to myself very early this morning with all the picks and got to get a shitload of emails. I mean, this is depressing that I got so many emails. Where is it? Here we go. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3423. I couldn't remember. It's been so long. And I have been up since 2 30 a.m. as I said earlier. So 3423, I think the Panthers kind of emptied the tank last week against the Chiefs. The Bucks have an opportunity to catch the Falcons and they know it. I, I asked Baker about that after they beat the Giants last week when you saw the Falcons lose the Broncos 38 six. Does that light bulb go off? Hey, we can catch these guys. I do that. Absolutely. He said, and they can't. One false move by the Falcons. Next thing you know, the Bucks are in it. They have to catch them and pass them because the Falcons swept them. I think the Bucks can do it. Having Evans back is huge. 11 different receivers caught passes last week. So he said, you know, it's like the Josh Allen thing with Amari Cooper. If, if you cover Mike Evans, somebody else is going to be open. He just delivers the ball to the guy who is open. 3423. We move on to the Rams. The Saints, an old NFC West reunion. Remember the days kids? When the Saints were in the NFC West and people wondered how in the hell are the Saints and how in the hell are the Falcons in the NFC West? Now they're both in the South, the Rams still in the West, the Rams coming to town, two and a half point favorites over under a 49. Do the Saints continue their Riz two game win streak under interim coach Darren Rizzi Chris. I think they're going to be a pain in the butt. I'm not going to pick them to win the football game, but they pose problems. Man, they, they got a little town in the secondary. They got size up front on the defensive line, a little depth on the defensive line to where, and they're creatively coached on the defensive side of the ball to where I don't think the Rams are just going to move the ball up and down the field on this, on this Saints defense. I don't expect that. Now I do think the Saints, I mean, the Rams offense though is good and always going to find ways to crack the code eventually. Also, the Saints on the offensive side of the ball become dangerous because they've kind of just complied the, we don't give a fuck. We're going to do everything on offense now. Have fun trying to defend it all. And we're, no, we're not great or whatever else. So we're going to take some chances and trick plays and taste some hills going to line up everywhere. I think it's going to be a tricky game. I think it's going to be a tough hard fought football game. Ultimately, I think the Rams were just going to pull it out late. Late field goal is kind of how I see it. 2724 on the road. Bingo, bang. We need a sound effect for when we have the exact I like that one. Just record his voice again. Bingo, bang. I like that. Bingo, bango, ping pong. Yeah, I really wanted to pick the Saints. And I thought about the two games, the Saints have won under the resonator. And man, you can only pull so many rabbits out of your ass until there ain't no rabbits left. The Rams are desperate now. They need to get a win. They're better than they outcome suggested on Sunday night. And I just think that they aren't going to hand opportunities to the Saints to take the game away from them. And if the Rams get healthier and healthier, they're a dangerous team, I think, in the postseason mix. So Rams 2724. Sunday. Oh, wait, one more. Eagles Ravens. How can I forget? How can I forget the game of the afternoon? Definitely. Eagles at the Ravens. Sequam Bark versus Derek Henry, Jalen Hertz versus Lamar Jackson. I'm never picking against Lamar Jackson in primetime ever again. How many times I have to learn that lesson before I follow it. But this time it's the Eagles coming to town. The Eagles have won seven in a row. The Ravens look great against the Chargers. Do the Ravens as three point favorites and over under a 42. Do they end the Philadelphia seven game win streak? Wow, I'm excited to watch this game. I mean, we're talking, you know, clash of the big boys right here, you know, unleashing the Titans. I mean, it's it's got it all going on. It's too big physical bully football teams. They both can run the ball and pose their will on you. They got quarterbacks that can make plays off schedule. Right. I think the Ravens offense is a little more high functioning than the Eagles offense. As you always hear me say, it's a little simple. They just do what they do. Right. But you're not going to sit there and watch film and go, Oh, wow, this is high level stuff. Oh, this is high level quarterback play. You're not. It's simple. They're just go, this is what we do. We're going to execute it. We're not going to mess it up. And at one point, somebody's in a ball out and make a play. That's kind of what they do. So that favors the Ravens defense a little bit. A Ravens defense that I don't think is super talented or good as we all know. But there's not going to be a lot of schematical stuff they have to worry about in this game. The priority number one is going to be stop the run and stop saquon. And if they can do that, then they don't have to play so much man-to-man and put guys on an island out there against AJ Brown and Davante Smith. We'll see if he's healthy and ready to go this week, too. That's another thing we got to look out for. The other side of the ball, the Eagles defense is awesome. It's one of the best in football. I do think they're going to pose problems or Baltimore on the offensive side of the ball. I know Baltimore, they want to run the ball. I don't think they're going to be able to do that all that easily. The Eagles are so well coached in the back end. They're creative in the back end, too. This game is a game again. You go back and forth with. I just think the Eagles are a better football team. I think they're more talented. I'm going with the Eagles 20 to 17 on the road in Baltimore. Wow. Yeah. Look, I don't think the Baltimore defense is good as people think, even at the run-stopping stuff. I think the Eagles can run the ball on Baltimore, and that's going to start an avalanche of some problems for them. Well, look, J.K. Dobbins got injured early. He had 40 yards on six carries on Monday night, and if he doesn't get injured, does that game play out differently? The charger is running on. Definitely. There's not, I don't know if it plays out differently. If he doesn't get hurt and Quentin Johnson doesn't drop a shallow cross where he's going to run for a touchdown, yeah, the game is different. Exactly right. I still, look, I got to learn my lessons. Yeah. And this is basically a prime-time game. It's going to be dark by the end of the first quarter. The likes of the game starts. And I'm trying to learn from my, you know, like you step in shit enough times, you eventually learn to avoid doing it. I think the Ravens win this one. I think they hold serve at home by one point. So I'm giving the Eagles the cover 24, 23, Ravens over the Eagles, great game, classic game, the kind of game that would allow you to say hot toa or the actual phrase over and over again in the early segments of football night in America. And no one will see it because everyone will be watching Eagles rate. So knock yourself out hot toa. I might have to come out with something better this week. Maybe something a little more racy. Good Lord. Okay. Maybe you can tell a joke about the bear wiping his ass with the rabbit. All right. Next game. Next game. But that's too gross for you. Yes, it is. Hot toa is fine. Right. But bear, bear wiping ass with rabbit that crosses the line Sunday night football, 49ers of the bills, bills are seven point favorites, 44.5 over under 88% of the spread money is on the bills. Boy, this looked like a classic a couple of weeks ago, but the 49ers are just, they've reached their critical mass of injuries and adversity. And they just seem ordinary. They got embarrassed by the Packers last week. And I don't know how you recover from that in time to fly home. I didn't know if they're staying east coast. They probably, I believe they flew home. I believe they did. I think they went home. Yeah. Fly home and pack everything up and fly to New York. It's going to be tough for the 49ers on Sunday night. I think so. I mean, at least we see like Brock party's going to play. Now, the big thing, can the 49ers start running the football again? That's the big thing. Do they infuse Jordan Mason into some of the running game? Now, I know McCaffrey's the guy, but McCaffrey doesn't look totally himself to this point. Man, Jordan Mason, before he heard his shoulder was second in the NFL in rushing. I mean, he's a sledgehammer. But the other thing I like for the 49ers in the matchup is that this is a a Buffalo defense. You always hear me say, well, coach, they're not necessarily going to man you up and lock you down that way. And they're not necessarily the biggest front seven. I do think the 49ers will find some ways to run the ball a little bit. Some little play actions off of that to manipulate the zone coverages by Buffalo. So I think there'll be a force to be reckoned with. But it's the other side of the ball that I worry about with the 49ers. The bills are, as we've talked about, are different. They can pull and they can do what Green Bay's offensive line did last week to the 49ers. Run the ball right up your, right down your throat, all game long, let alone, they have Josh Allen and we expect their wide receivers to be healthy. I think San Francisco gives one last ditch tough effort, fights to death, whatever you want to say, the phrase, but I just don't think it's going to be enough in Buffalo on a Sunday night. 28 20 Buffalo. Same here 34 20 Buffalo garbage time touchdown or something like that. But it's just not good for the 49ers right now. It doesn't have the and watch. They'll probably win the game outright, but it doesn't have the same sizzle that we thought it was going to have. And I know that I might not get my paycheck by saying that since it's an NBC game. All right, Broncos, Browns, Monday night football. This looked like a shit game, frankly, until the Browns beat the Steelers. And hey, the Broncos are pretty good. Yeah. And James Winston is fun. Sean Payton brought him to New Orleans. So there's a little wrinkle there. I think this will be a lot of fun to watch. And I haven't checked the weather in Denver, maybe, you know, in Denver, anytime from basically Labor Day until Memorial Day, it could snow six inches, just snap your fingers. So maybe we'll get another weather game and get lucky. But Browns Broncos on the surface and you think about it. Pretty good game. Yeah, I mean, the Broncos are good. The Broncos could get in the playoffs and want to play off game. You're going to watch the quarterback who might be the rookie of the year. He's playing like the rookie of the year right now. There's no doubt he's been better than Jane and Daniels over the last five weeks. That's for sure. So yeah, they're fun to watch. Their defense is awesome. You said in a minute ago, like, Hey, Cleveland. Yeah, they won last week. They weren't Cleveland's good too. They just played there. They played a second and third string quarterback the whole year to start the season and they couldn't win a game. They literally like tried to lose games, starting the lesser quarterback. I think this will be fun. I do. Here's what I worry about a little bit. Just bow nicks, this aggressive Cleveland defense, maybe holding the ball or being a little too aggressive on his own. But I don't think Sean Payton to let that happen. I don't. And I think that over aggressive nature of that, that Cleveland defense actually is going to come back to bite them in the ass with Sean Payton to bow nicks on this one. And I think that Denver defense is too good for Cleveland offense. I'm going Denver to kind of pull away late 30 to 17, Mike. I got 23 13. It's a five and a half points spread with an over under a 42. And look, I think if the Browns had gone with James Winston earlier, they'd be in that dog right exactly right. Maybe right. Maybe this game would be a game. Yeah, they could help them really frog the Broncos and get a playoff spot. Right. That's what I was trying to say. Yeah. The Browns, excuse me, haven't learned. And we'll see if they learn by next year. We'll take a break. Best bets and Folsom Prison or Folsom County or prison, whatever. Welcome back to the PFTPM Chris Simms on button picks podcast delivered by a little Caesar's the official pizza sponsor of the national football league. Ah, pizza, pizza. We disagree on three games this week straight up three against the spread. We have three best bets. Chris, you're up. All right. Well, this is one of the hardest there. I'm going the lions on Thursday. I know they have been one in seven years. I think Dan Campbell's going to use that as motivation for his football team. I only got him winning. I know 28 17 or whatever, but you know, I'm second guessing that a little bit. And it's one of the ones I like and I trust the lions. Texans given five to the Jaguars is my first one. Okay. All right. And the next one, I'm going to go with the Chiefs. I am. There's not a lot that I like this week. I don't trust Aidan O'Connell coming back with a few days of practice and going, Oh yeah, Black Friday, I'll go in and beat the Chiefs. Yeah, good luck with that. I'm taking the Chiefs. Bucks given six to the panther. Okay. Come on, Bryce Young. Let's go baby. I did think about the Titans with the Washington because I think they match up well, but I'm going to go with the Broncos and wait Monday night. I think they cover that spread against the Browns. All right. I'm trying to make amends with Aaron Jones and the Vikings, Minnesota minus three and a half against the Cardinals. Oh, baby. Come on, Kyle Wilson, prison blues. Don't play call a party this week. Got one game straight up. Oh, I'm going to take the Chiefs over the Raiders. Chiefs. All right. See you. Thanks, giving. Happy Thanksgiving. See you. Carry on is an edge of your seat action thriller that follows a young TSA agent who's blackmailed into an impossible situation at the height of Christmas Eve travel pandemonium. Either let a dangerous package slip through security and risk the lives of many or save the passengers and risk the life of his pregnant girlfriend. Starring Taren Edgerton, Sophia Carson and Jason Bateman carry on is a holiday thrill ride with nail biting nonstop action and suspense. Watch carry on only on Netflix December 13th rated PG-13. When it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. With indeed, don't search match. 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Happy Thanksgiving! It's an early picks podcast as Mike and Chris break down maybe the best football week of the year. Can Tua win in the cold? Can the red hot Eagles win in Baltimore? And can the Bengals and 49ers (finally) win a must-win game? Plus, Chris tells a story about bringing his dog on a plane.