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Inside Texas Football
Deep Dive: QB Play Decides Texas vs. Texas A&M Winner
Welcome to the deep dive and welcome to inside Texas football powered by inside Texas.com Hey right now. We are running a special deal $1 for seven days and 50% 50% off your first year. What a deal Join inside Texas today join the best community for talking the wall horns sports in general and all sorts of other fun stuff Ian Happy Thanksgiving, man. What's going on? Not much. We're gonna have a Boyd Moot in North Austin tomorrow. Thanksgiving. What's your favorite? Way to do the meal Like what's your what's your go-to? Anything's giving plate. I'm a big stuffing guy. Yes. Okay. Yeah stuffing is everything Our producer Connor loved green bean casserole Okay, so You know, thank God he's good at production and other things because he's not very good at picking Thanksgiving meals and contrary choices, I am a It's fine Connor. You're right. It's fine. He's sitting back my My go-to the first thing I do is I get a roll or biscuit whichever is is offered to me and I put the turkey mashed potatoes stuffing and gravy and make Sandwich nice and that's how I like to consume thingsgiving with I I know you I thought you were gonna say a crescent roll dipped into mayonnaise I was like sounds sounds pretty good. I'm good We've got something we want to dip into and we promise it's gonna be spicier than Ian's love of mayonnaise We're gonna talk Texas Texas A&M. We're specifically gonna talk match-ups because Really, I think this game is gonna boil down to the play of the quarterbacks on each side of the ball And I think that's gonna inform how both offenses do against some defenses who may in varying ways pose problems for the opposing quarterback, so Ian Are you ready to wait in? Yeah, I've caught up a little bit on A&M in the last couple days as I'm sure you have As have I It's been hard to get a good I haven't had a lot of reason to study them because they have not played in a lot of important games. Hmm Well, that's a great lead in one of the things that makes A&M difficult to study is which A&M Yeah, yeah, the problem with stats stats are great But if you don't understand stats within context You're using them the way a drunk uses a lamppost for support rather than illumination So we're gonna try to use stats for illumative purposes here because if you take a mean average of Connor wegman starting against Notre Dame And you blend it with when they had levy on moss and they're playing florida And you blend it with their last game against Auburn. You're gonna get a very deceptive mean, aren't you? So what we're gonna try to do is talk about the fact that A&M said three distinct offensive iterations And this is something that I wrote about on inside Texas ag the offense 1.0 tried to feature NFL draft putters favorite prospect Connor wegman in a balanced sort of spread passing offense and Wegman didn't excel did he? No, the Notre Dame game was particularly egregious And then um I feel like he had one the Missouri game was solid And And then he like just collapsed again against LSU I don't know what's up with that guy, but it's over for him. So Yeah People keep making cards appear in his shoe and it throws him off his game And as it would anyone it's understandable. So yeah, that's A&M offense number one 1.0 A&M about funds number 2.0 That second iteration is something Colin Klein is very familiar with you I'm gonna get a mobile dual threat quarterback. I'm gonna get an excellent running back and levy on mods I'm gonna have a number two running back in amari daniels who's quite capable And i'm gonna run the heck Out of the football and then i'm gonna let this quarterback get outside the pocket take shots take play action shots And of course use his legs to elevate my running back We know now it's been studied that if you've got a great running quarterback Your running back is the greatest beneficiary in terms of yards per carry simply because you get that extra man advantage You've got to account for the quarterback A&M ran that offense with with Marcel Reed and they went for no running that offense They got big wins over the likes of florida bowling green Arkansas and LSU For decent teams Yeah, and in their varying ways decent teams. Yeah, then something else happened And now we have Texas A&M offense 3.0 levy on mosque blood is knee against south carolina fairly early in that game. Yep So We could have a read now has to go to another phase of the old kansas state Colin Klein experience which Colin Klein personally embodied which is hero ball What is hero ball? hero ball is where I've tried to I've actually tried to put a number on it before But it's where your quarterback is running the ball 15 plus times a game throwing the ball 30 plus times a game And his usage rate is just like 60 70 80 percent of your offense. He's making a decision with the ball in his hands That isn't just hand to this guy on the majority of your plays It's off-loading Offloading a massive portion of offensive responsibility Not only in terms of workload, but decision-making to one player of the quarterback Now texas fans are not unfamiliar with this concept sam elinger was the embodiment of hero ball in his time here at texas Uh in fact, I had a much higher usage rate than vinceyump Who's sort of the classic example cult mccoy a lot of hero ball late in his career worked out for us Uh, it helps if the guys an actual hero and it also helps if they're mature and physically capable of handling it both mentally and physically But let's look at marsall read and how it's gone for him. It's also Sorry for mccoy and elinger when those teams were healthy. It was a Situational thing. Yes. It wasn't every game. It was ideally. It was like the red river chute out the big non-conference game Virtual champion or things like that. Yeah multiple games where vinceyump carried the ball four times Yeah, and then up gets the big opponent he'd carry it 22 or 18. So let's look at marsall reads usage All right This is a chart Look at those beautiful graphics expertly put together Uh I put those together. That's why they look simplistic connor would have done this much better Uh, so here's marsall reads usage with the healthy moss. So look at the total number of passing attempts Look at the total number of rushing attempts. Just a nice rule of thumb We're looking at 30 against florida total 41 against bowling green man the the the mac elite tested an em in their in college station 32 against arkansas at 11 against lsu he didn't play the entire lsu game He did kind of come in and save this ship when connor white men was was sinking it Then labion moss blows out his knee fairly early in the game against south carolina Look at what happened to his usage radian 44 total plays against south carolina 35 against new mexico state That's a game where you should be He should have 20 plays from scrimmage, right? He should be way down. He should be resting him But they had to go out and throw him just to make sure the offense moved And then lastly against auburn. This is his biggest usage yet, and it's not a coincidence Competitive game on the road went to overtime 35 passing attempts 21 rushing attempts 56 total plays that he was responsible for That is Too much to put on a red shirt freshman Particularly a red shirt freshman who weighs 185 pounds call and client did a bunch of hero ball at kansas state As a junior and senior a red shirt junior and senior at 65 230 That's that's a different thing in kind. So That's the physical part. Let's talk about the mental parts What do we want marsell re doing as much as possible against a pretty smart Pretty capable texas defense making decisions Yeah Yeah of any kind of any kind Also running between the tackles, but uh, that should also be a necessary byproduct of if he has to Make plays on 40 plus plays in this game Is it fair to say the a&m staff is aware of this And would like to offload as much offense and running as they can to amari daniels You would assume so Yeah, if they have any faith whatsoever in that Great You would think that they would go into this game and say Here's our initial script Here's a couple of things we're going to try to do Uh And then failing that or when we get to the fourth quarter pureball Well, here's an interesting aspect of marsell reeds game That may tie in together to the shutting down that running game And it actually has some parallels to content. Believe it or not Even though a&m is a better own line a better quarterback better personnel overall Maybe not better receivers though. No From a clean pocket read is a 64.4 Passer who averages 9.1 yards per attempt 10 touchdowns one interception I guess what He's equally effective from a clean pocket on a play action or a straight dropback Not typical for a dual throw it. Okay Here's where it gets interesting Ian Under pressure read is a 43 Passer who averages five yards per attempt Two touchdowns two interceptions, but those two interceptions come in the context of 10 of his passes Under pressure hit a defender in the hands They only caught two of them He also got sacked 20 percent of the time Okay So Ian Is there a game plan here? Where we want to make him crack under the pressure of high usage and also Carry the burden of the offense While also shutting down the running game is Pete is Pete McCousley gonna bring it in college station So i've been thinking like hey just play your normal match three zone have eyes on the quarterback and just make him work to his second read and And just play it safe like that Your numbers suggest that maybe they should just blitz him early and often and run blitz early And then pass blitz later, right? Yeah Which they actually did uh against cutter bowley After he hit a couple plays Uh texas blitzed him a couple times pk realized that bowley wasn't really Up for Handling that if he couldn't get to his primary and he just started bringing like zero blitzes like every other play Yep So it is in pk's wheelhouse. It's obviously not what he likes to do As his primary plan. What do you think? I think we're going to bring the heat Uh, I don't know if it's going to be full on zero blitz But I think we're going to want to point Anthony hill downhill No pun intended and here's another a little juicy fact Guess who was it very good in past protection for a and m? Their offensive line by the way is overperformed this year to expectation But guess who's not good at blocking linebackers in there deep in their offense Uh The interior our marri daniels is a Protector Oh boy. Oh boy is right So I think if a and m goes three or four wide. These are auto blitzes. Yeah And I think we've got the secondary You hold up and be just fine Uh, if they've never had a really high grade wide receiver core, it'd be a little bit more dangerous But they don't separate early and often Um You know, I've noticed that they've done a better job of getting big plays on scramble drills or just you know Longer slow developing plays And I think texas The way our edges have been playing and the way Anthony hill has been getting after the passer I think that there's going to be a unique formula there of convergence on the football That a and m hasn't seen since that carolina But in As we're now feeling arrogant and confident Before we uh before we make that move What do you think about playing jalani mcdonald at nickel in this game? And just having a little more size and tackling overall Uh, I'm for it if you can remember what to do because I've had reviewing kentucky. I'm pretty convinced he blew Two coverages that I could identify Okay, so he needs to be on track Uh, but I love his physicality his tackling and obviously he can cover space I actually I had even pushed back a little as long as you take away the first read. Yeah I don't know that a bust matters It does Although uh Read is good if he can escape the pocket. He's good at having his eyes downfield and finding something And uh, but I mean that that can bust open whether it's zone or man and you play your assignments read or not. It just If the plague gets extended then things will break down. So Another tidbit about read Uh, very good stats inside the hashes Terrible outside the hashes at any distance and It's not a hash thing. It transfers to his rollouts So he throws in front of himself like This rotation line of sight really well If you ask him to throw across the field Um on sort of a touch route, you know 15 yard out It's not happening So we can roll our coverages accordingly We want to populate the middle of the field Yep And then react You know usage rate, that's important and that will never let you down I do Who Dave gave Winslow Of course Well said Excuse me English is your first language gave Winslow That's right. That's like my mom calls the internet the internet Uh, she puts the emphasis on the wrong word gave is great at what he does. Hey Give thanks To yourself and dial this number 832 557 1095. Why? Best damn mortgage guide in the great state of texas. 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They don't care Gabe caribs give him a call 832 557 1095 So if you're a texas fan You're probably feeling pretty good and pretty cheerful about that first half preview that we gave you But it wouldn't be a great rivalry game if we didn't give you a little bit of insecurity to go with it And there's another match up on the other side of the ball and that match up is going to be between mike elko and the texas sean m defense versus steves arpeggian but also versus when yours and Ian You have a thesis and I think we both share the thesis that We want it to be sark versus elko and less yours versus elko Please expound upon that mr. Boyd I think the best way to do this is with graphic number two if you would mr. producer These are quin Ewers passing splits this season based on quarter of play But I think that's pretty obvious intuitive in the first quarter 73.7 percent completion percentage uh second quarter goes down to 69.6. I think that's actually a higher ypa though slightly Third quarter slips down a little bit and you notice that the volume of passes is now decreasing fourth quarter very low completion percentage very low volume of passes Now part of this is that sark follows the uh run to uh Pass to score run to win philosophy of the NFL It's easier to run the ball later in the game. It's easier to throw the ball early in the game You can script stuff up script open reads And then lean on a team later when you have a lead and run the ball So that's obviously at play here as a caveat But I think it's also apparent that quin Ewers when he's dialing up scripted plays that they've rehearsed in the week and then have been drawn up specifically for that opponent in sequence Is a very different quin Ewers than Okay, all the cards are on the table now. It's time to go make winning plays Ewers So I think the point you're making To belabor the obvious for taps, but it's this is not just a volume differential. This is a qualitative Difference in play, right? Yes, you're seeing a 22.4 Decline and completion percentage from the first to the fourth quarter That's that's also a uh On the fourth quarter, that's a 4.9 yards per attempt And in the first quarter, that's a 7.7 yards per attempt Yeah, and the second he actually is is as you said, he's he's better yards per attempt Yeah, second goes to uh Some quick math here 8.7 actually it's when he's hitting all his deep balls in Yeah Uh, I guess Like an interesting format in the from the second quarter to the fourth quarter is almost halved. Yep Which is you attribute this to sort of comfort zone script being on script The longer he can stay on script and we can build that lead The better for texas because we love staking our defense a lead And we we don't mind handing off the ball and and running out the clock and just taking the win so The idea is that When we're on script it's sorry for elko when we're off script It's more yours versus elko and now elko's disguises is blitzes Those sorts of things can come to the fore Isn't the ockham's razor solution to that though in is Make hay while the sun shines in the passing game and then run the hell out of the football Yeah I it's the like the arkansas game is a really good Uh, I think paints this picture really clearly Which is that after the first two quarters the score was tend to zip but every experienced texas fan an observer of this program in the sark era was like Did not score enough points there. Yeah, this well is going to dry up and What are we going to do if we need to score more points? Which is exactly what happened. I mean they they eked it out because the run game Uh made it work Same thing versus kentucky to a lesser extent But you just knew that you got it if you don't score on those opening scripts plays where you have the defense on their heels Then it's tough to score with this offense later Agreed and hey the most positive example of this would be before to go They've never caught up to our script Yeah, and 42 nothing and then guess what we did we just handed the ball off the entire second half and very effectively and Could have added more points had we felt like uh, we basically just ran out the clock mercifully on on the gators So of course they they go off on a terror after that Um, and dj lagway doesn't play on the defense. So settle down everybody else and the scc Uh, we would only beat them 49 to 21 if lagway had started so, um I think this is a great point and I think it's an important thing Yours is the the vessel for this but there's other stuff going on in the offense beyond just yours, uh, but The quarterback is going to be the the guy that we're evaluating to demonstrate this And I think frankly, it's also yours himself. We can see it in his play in his confidence Yeah This is I mean if you watch any sark quarterback over the years His quarterbacks are usually much more of a joystick type guy than say, uh, elinger mccoy or vince young Yep, where they're making a lot of things happen on their own And I you wonder also if part of the hits like some people are like quin is being dinged up Why in the world are you not putting arch in against kentucky or whatever and part of it could be I the the joystick is not fully connected on arch yet. Right. He doesn't have quite the reps to Operate the full volume of offense that quin can operate You know an interesting thing the aggy defense has been vulnerable times people have been able to run on them people have been able to throw deep on them They've given up explosives, even though they're pretty good down to down Yeah, one of the common traits though of those offenses is big strong mobile quarterbacks Who are accurate and big armed deep Uh lunor sellers field a&m He didn't just kill him throwing the ball down the field, which he did we're handing it to rocket sanders, which he did He shrugged off five or six different sacks in the pocket where an aggy defender Had him wrapped up and lunor sellers would just go get off me and then take off running or throw the ball 60 yards down the field Uh Peyton Thorne in his own way Did some similar things. Um very effective throwing the ball deep Specifically on fades to uh cam Coleman Know that we can duplicate that but Does that expose some other aspects of the aggy defense that maybe we can duplicate that success In a different way Maybe Yeah Uh If Texas could hit some fades on the outside in this game There is a you could target des ricks or uh javen thomas The willily I think is Better not to go after him if you don't have to um And then uh slot fades Producers is Making a negative commentary in the comments that you can't see But in fact, these are skeptical Are there producers skeptical in fact quin has actually thrown some pretty good fade balls this year Um, he had like two that deandrey more dropped right against forda. Yeah Especially on the slot fade. I think that's a more comfortable throw for quin another advantage of the fade is that It's like the first read on a three-step drop So it's like you drop back if it's more than one you just let it go and throw the ball up and let them run under it Which I think plays to quin strengths Anything deep Where uh, you need time for the play to develop and you need Good extra good protection because you're not sure if quin's going to be moving very well I I don't like it in this game because this is a very good pass rush very good defensive line very good blitz package and that's just doubling down on negative advantage areas to ask quin to try to hit like a poster out Against this team. I'll say this Um two things a and m Uh good blitz packages well coached. I'll be elko deep elko defenses are well coached Generally speaking, although he's offloaded some of the play calling to jbateman clearly um They're linebackers Not super mobile not laterally quick That's a problem for them because quin yours is extraordinary at throwing swing passes Uh, if those linebackers if they're running certain blitz packages trying to bring a safety or nickel their guarding gunner help They can't guard him So that's another factor And then finally I'd say this A&M's defensive line is good. They're very physical. They're very big and they're power rushes Yeah How have we fared against higher level power rushing defensive lines power rushes Which is Kentucky How is our protection in those do we do we have guys who just get driven back into the quarterback or Did we struggle a little bit with georgia's quickness and their their blitz packages and guys coming from different places? It seemed like everything was a problem against georgia Well, I can't say I didn't see a ton of guys getting driven back and thrown into the quarterback Not in the not in the past game And where i've seen a and m be effective particularly as pure pass rushes Is third nate and they just they relocate the pocket into the lap of your quarterback and he he wilts Um, i've not seen a lot of teams do that to our offensive line So that will be an interesting matchup I would I think I worry more about the the play where they Sim a pressure and then they get a linebacker running up the middle on the running back And then how queen reacts to that even if it's blocked Yeah, do you drop your eyes? Do you pull the ball down like yeah or do you take a step To you know a half foot to the side step forward and throw the ball Yeah, yeah, that's going to be a big part of it. That's why we have horse races That's why we have differences of opinion about who's going to win this game Uh, I think you can make arguments for both obviously a and m has the home field advantage Uh, but I think a and m I think texas has a lot of discrete advantages that may be more Subtle and then you got to dig deep. You know marcell read has been a godsend for a and m. I think he salvaged their season But if you dig a little deeper if you dive a little deeper I think that marcell read has some game planning issues That the right defense which I think texas has can execute and make him have a very long four quarters I also I think that I think the agies are going to park their safety shallow And try to rely on them to clean up the horizontal game that texas is so good at Um, but I still think There's going to be opportunities in the opening script or if they can use tempo to bust some plays on those anyway And maybe for big plays if the safeties are shallow and then you get behind them on a, uh, uh, Isaiah bond Uh slant or something To that point an over reported aspect of this game Quinn Evers ankle an under reported aspect of this game. Isaiah bonds ankle. It's not been right for some time He's been mostly a decoy We need that ankle to heal up. Uh, we got to get it taped up and take a shot And see if we can get some Isaiah bond speed because I can tell you a and m They don't have a single guy in their cover in in their secondary even will lee who can just run with him That's not going to happen All All right, we'll let that not be your closing thoughts as you look like a easter island moi Uh For overall overall how confident are you would you what's the spread? It's now five and a half Would you uh, what would you take if you had to make it? I have texas say an m plus nine and a half Well, sure And i'm waiting for this to get to four and a half and then i'm going to take texas and try to middle it And have to have texas win by seven or six So you think texas wins by Maybe a touchdown That's the hope I'll take a one point victory. Don't care. Right I think i'm in a similar boat the the game. I'm I mean you you don't want to count your Uh eggs until they hatch, but the one that scares me is the one after actually you can count your eggs before they hatch Let's think of chickens before they hatch you Okay I don't want to count the eggs either. It's a rivalry He's not counting anything He's gonna be conservative. He's not even sure it's a long one Perfect. All right. Well i'm that note Happy Thanksgiving and we'll see you guys hook him horns
Which QB can rise to the occasion in the Texas vs. Texas A&M Game?