The Duran Podcast
Israel-Iran strikes; Out of danger, but risk very real
All right, Alexander, let's revisit the strike from Israel into Iran. And we did a video Thursday, Friday, where we talked about the strike from Israel into Iran, the drones that were targeting Iran. And we didn't put out another video over the weekend because I believe everyone was in a wait and see type of mood because, you know, we didn't know what would happen. No one really knew what would happen was, was this the retaliation? Was this a prelude to something bigger? What was going to happen over the weekend? And we did say that if there was no strike over the weekend, then most likely were out of the woods for this time. What are your thoughts, Alexander? The weekend has ended. New week, new news cycle. Do you think that this has deescalated or something coming? No, I think it has deescalated. I think we are past this specific crisis. As we said, if that first drone attack had been a prelude to something bigger, then that would have happened over the weekend. It didn't happen over the weekend. Instead, we've had a cascade of comments, nearly all of them, anonymous comments, by the way, by Israeli and US officials, all saying that this strike that happened, the drone attack, was the attack. There isn't going to be another one, that the situation has been contained, that the United States didn't want to think to escalate the Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the Israeli cabinet went along with that. And on top of this, the Israeli security minister, Benqvir, has come out and has tweeted this one word in Hebrew, which has been translated in all sorts of different ways, but lame, feeble, weak, whatever it is. But the point was, he's saying this really didn't amount to anything. This attack didn't amount to anything from his point of view, but it also tells us that it is the entirety of the attack, because he would have been briefed about it. So I think we can say with confidence now, that we are not going to get a further attack over the next few weeks, at least, and that this is indeed the end of the affair. And going back to what we were saying in that video that we did just after the strike, given that this is the end of the affair, the Iranians have come out on points ahead. They've demonstrated resolve. They've demonstrated deterrence. They've shown that an attack on their embassy will be answered. They launched their own strike against Israel, much bigger strike than the one we've seen from the Israelis. They talked about it publicly, even as the strike was underway. They hit Israeli targets, not on a huge scale, but nonetheless, some missiles got through, whereas the Israelis carried out a much smaller strike in a very furtive way. They're not talking about it. And that caused into question the strength of their own resolve and therefore of their own deterrent capability. So I think that going back to what we were saying on Friday, I think our analysis was absolutely spot on then, and I think we are through the worst. Having said all of that, we have had some more information about what exactly did take place. And it is interesting, and it does beg some rather interesting questions, and may suggest that though we are out of immediate danger, the risk of something happening eventually remains and is very real. Because along with this drone attack on this air base in Isfahan, and it seems that was the only drone attack, and it seems that three drones were involved, and all of them were shot down, and that they did no damage. But along with that drone attack, it seems that there was some kind of a missile strike on an entirely different Iranian installation, military installation, which is a radar station connected to the air defense missile complex, which protects Iran's major nuclear enrichment site at Natanz, which is located some 130 kilometers from Isfahan, the city of Isfahan. And it looks as if these Israelis launched from Iraqi air space missiles against this facility, intending to destroy one at least of the radars that are involved with this big Russian supplied S-300 missile complex, which is defending Natanz. Now, initially, I saw a photograph, a satellite picture of this strike, of the effect of this strike. I'd seen some reports that the strike could actually damage or destroy the radar. I've been contacted by various people who understand these things a lot better than me, and who have much better sight than I have. And they say, "No, I've got this wrong." What this satellite photo actually shows is that there's been no damage done to the radars at all. So if there was a strike against them, the strike failed, but there was some kind of a missile strike, we know, because debris, the first stages of some of these missiles that were launched, have apparently fallen on Iraq. Now, if we put all this together, then it looks as if the Israelis were targeting a key part of the air defense system, which is protecting Natanz, and they were doing it from Iraqi airspace. The United States controls Iraqi airspace. So the Israelis presumably needed U.S. agreement in order to launch that missile strike against that airbase, that air defense complex. And the fact that they were targeting an air defense complex, which is protecting Natanz, suggests or is perhaps intended to suggest to the Iranians that Natanz is still a potential target, that the Israelis might at some point in the future decide to go after Natanz. So there is a bit more to this story than we knew on Friday, but it doesn't alter our fundamental analysis about what happened on Friday, which we made on Friday. What I would say is it does look as if the Americans might have been more involved than they're saying, because they will have had to consent to the Israelis. Launching those missiles from Iraqi airspace. And if, as seems to have been the case, the missile strike failed, then that is something that will concern both the Americans and the Israelis, because it suggests that the Iranian air defense system is more efficient than they counted on. And it would mean that the Iranians actually are even further ahead on points than we thought when we did our previous video. Right. So short term, we've escaped. It looks like we've escaped the escalation, but medium long term, Israel's may try to hit at Iran in a big way. Is that kind of what you're saying? Yes. And doing so, by the way, in concert with the United States, whose permission, as I said, they would have needed to carry out this strike. So this was a probing attack at a radio station. It failed to knock out the radio station. But it does look as if the Israelis are sniffing, if you like, that Natanz. Now, Natanz is a huge installation. It's a very important one. That is, it was set up covertly by the Iranians, and it is where they enrich uranium. And it's widely assumed that if the Iranians ever do develop a nuclear weapon, which, of course, they said they have no plan to do, and which US intelligence also tells us, by the way, they don't seem to have any plan to do. Anyway, if they do ever change their mind and decide to create a nuclear weapon, it is assumed that they will do that using enriched uranium, uranium, which has been enriched in Natanz. So that tells you what an important facility, Natanz is. And this is a serious signal, one that the Iranians will take very seriously. What do you make of the report which you claim that Iran is closer does have nuclear weapons? I don't know. It's a short answer. I think that Iran has the capability to produce nuclear weapons. I think that is indisputable. I mean, this is a country with a certain degree of technological sophistication, a very large industrial base. People always forget that nuclear weapons were produced in the 1940s, where now in the 2020s. A lot of time has passed since then. Knowledge about how to produce nuclear weapons has become widely disseminated. Even the most simple laptop that Iran, you could find anywhere in Iran, is going to have more computer power than the scientists who were conducting the Manhattan Project, had at their disposal. Iran is certainly capable of producing nuclear weapons. It probably has a significant stockpile of enriched uranium. It could probably enrich that uranium pretty fast. It's probably got designs and blueprints ready. I think it could probably do it within months if it put its mind to doing it. So I think it has that capability. Now, there are other stories that Iran has actually developed nuclear weapons, but has arranged to keep them concealed in another country. I'm not going to discuss which one, but there are others reports. It's not impossible. I have to say again, I don't know whether or not that is true. If it is true, and there was one thing that happened over the last couple of days, which might lend some support to that claim, which is that the Iranian, as a senior Iranian diplomat, in advance of the, I think it was the Israeli strike, actually visited that third country, that country, which is supposed to be the home of these Iranian nuclear bombs, nuclear weapons. Just saying. So that was interesting. But anyway, if that is true, then of course that changes the entire political dimension here. It means that Israel, which presumably has this information. I mean, I can't believe that the Israelis won't know about this. And the Americans will have to make very different calculations from the ones that we are hearing them make, because they know that they're up against the nuclear power. And that might be another reason, by the way, why they're pulling their punches. So the New York Times, they are reporting that Israel was indeed planning a big attack, but it was the US that talked about this. Why would the US, what are some of the reasons that the US was talking Israel out of this big attack? I think there's two reasons. One is that they don't want a general conflagration in the Middle East. We've discussed this many times. The more level-headed and sane people in the US government, who are probably the majority, but who are not necessarily the most influential members of the US government, understand that the general conflagration in the Middle East would be an absolute disaster for the United States, and would be something that simply cannot be contained, and it would create havoc in the global economy and all of that. Because there are neocons who take a completely different line, they actually would welcome a general conflagration in the Middle East, and besides, they're saying, you know, we don't need to worry about that. If we attack Iran, the government there will immediately collapse, the people will rise up, there will be regime change, all will be well. It's the story these people always spread ahead of every project that they launch us into. Their predictions always turn out to be wrong, but that doesn't stop them making those predictions. So there are people like that. But anyway, I think there is a general concern that, you know, a general conflagration in the Middle East would be a disaster and something that the United States cannot control. But I think there is something else which may have tipped the balance. And then simply this, the United States is, at this particular time, desperately short of the weapons that would be needed in the event of a long-term confrontation between Israel and Iran. And what happened was these Iranians sent 300 drones, cruise missiles, rockets, all kinds of missiles towards Israel. The Israelis had to launch huge numbers of missile interceptors to shoot down these things, spending apparently $1.3 billion to do it. I heard that around half the missiles, the air defense missiles, that were launch ready in Israel. We used up in parrying this one attack. That was already apparently putting pressure on Israeli stockpiles. The Israelis do not have enormous stockpiles of air defense missiles to be able to absorb attacks like this, night after night after night. They would need to turn to the United States. And the United States is itself short of air defense missile interceptors because it has been giving them to Ukraine. And it is now running short because of the extent to which Ukraine has been launching them. So what we're seeing is Ukraine is now such a big drain on American resources, especially in air defense systems, that it's having an effect on American decisions and American actions in other theaters, specifically in this case in the Middle East. All right, we will end the video there, the demand at locals.com. We are on a rumble odyssey, Bitchewed Telegram, Rockfin, and Twitter X and go to the Iran shop. Pick up some limited edition merchandise. The link is in the description box down below. Take care. [Music]