The Jon Sanchez Show

12/06-How long can the stock market continue to rise?

It was another record setting week on Wall Street. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 all closed at record levels. But the question we must be asking is this…”how long can this continue?”. This afternoon on the Jon Sanchez Show at 3pm, we’ll review 5 reasons why the market can continue to rise and 5 reasons why it might not.

Duration:: 33m
Broadcast on:: 07 Dec 2024
Audio Format:: other

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It's nice to put this one in the books and start looking for it next week, you know. All righty. Yeah, already we are indeed we are. Yeah, it was interesting day to day. I like when headline that I saw Jason, it was a tough slog today. And I think that is a little bit of a slaying headline or description of the market. But I think that really summarized it. It was a tough slog today. We of course are going to give you all the details. We had some pressure on United Health and a few other names. Even the video was down pressuring the Dow a bit. But yeah, the Dow suffered a little bit of a loss today. Get on the NASDAQ in record setting day for the S&P 500. So you know what? Overall, we will take it. A little bit choppy on the weekly side of things. But we're going to give you all the reasons behind it and give you all the details. And then let me tell you what we have lined up for you. We're going to get into, you know, if you noticed, we've been talking a lot to everybody about, you know, not to become too overly optimistic right now. You know, again, this market, this economy, it's on a sugar high for, you know, the primary reason of Trump coming into into office here in a few short months. And all things related to that, right? There's just an air of optimism that seems to be floating around. But our job, of course, is not to get complacent and not, you know, say, oh, it can do nothing but go up. But what we really need to do is, and this is what our topic is going to be this afternoon, is really take a look at five reasons why we think this market can continue to rise. But also conversely, five reasons why we think this market can, I won't say fault, but let's say decline going forward over the next, we'll call it six months or so. Because again, Jason, do you not agree that this optimism in the air is something that we have not seen in quite some time? I want to end a great detail about it on the show yesterday, but look to get your opinion on it. Yeah, I mean, it's starting to feel that way for sure. I mean, with the move in crypto assets and like I've kept saying, oh, probably the last month or two, how everyone fancies themselves a stock trader right now, because it doesn't matter what you buy, it just goes up. And yeah, it does, it feels Bank of America mentioned the term frothy today. And, you know, those are, if you think back to the SPAC boom in, what was it, a couple years ago, right pre 2020. And so, you know, those are tend to be symptomatic of a, you know, a chase of some kind. And we've talked about it quite a bit that the thought is, and that's partially why I've been more positive than negative into the end of the year is just because there's still a fair amount of chasing that needs to happen. And as volatility continues to collapse, which it did even more. So today, I think the VIX is sub 13 now. That's just, yeah, it's just creating a bid to this market that, I mean, you've had the broadening out, you've had the whatever theme you want to call it, you've had AI be hot, you've had AI be not hot, and now it's back hot. And obviously the move to, you know, Bitcoin through 100,000 and all those things surrounding that. And like you mentioned, the change in administration, I've been probably telling folks more that it is with Trump that things aren't going to change versus that things are, right? There are certainly benefits to hopefully less bureaucracy and things that could be being priced into the market, small caps, etc. But I'd say the fact that you're not going to see a massive tax regime change or just some of the frustrations that folks have had with spending and such continue, you know, that love them or hate them. The market wasn't all that bad the last two years, right? Despite Biden and Cruz. So, you know, it's, I think it's, you know, probably just a green light to think whatever was working probably continues to work. But yeah, do I, would I be surprised if we saw weakness in early 2025? No, I certainly think that people are waiting for, I don't want to take capital gains. Additionally, this year, I'd like to kick them into next year and then deal with it after the fact, if I get some, you know, some loss harvesting, I can do so on and so forth. But, you know, that's probably what I'm more concerned about. I mean, rates continue to come in. You're now at what, 85% probability of a cut now after today's number. So that is a findable backdrop. Yeah, because yeah, that's a favorable backdrop to risk taking. But yeah, a decent amount of good news has been priced in and, you know, I'd say probably not the best time to go out and chase your favorite, you know, crypto led or, you know, transformational doge led name. I bet you'll get a chance to buy it cheaper here in the next, I'd say month or two, maybe December probably continues to add to gains. But like I said, I wouldn't be surprised to see weakness after the first part of the year that isn't a, oh my gosh, the market's going to crash, but a healthy pullback that I still think is a buying opportunity into, you know, the rest of the year. Absolutely, absolutely. All right. So yes, we'll go into more details over our five reasons why the market may rise, five, why they may fall later in the program. In the meantime, it's going to get down to today's activity. Tough sludge, sludge, sludge, sludge, sludge, sludge, kind of slug is kind of sluggy. Yeah, some points. Yeah, we, similar to yesterday, of course, we had the weakness and it happened pretty fast today. It was, I'm talking about United Health. Again, that tragic situation going on with their executive that was killed in New York this week. We saw the stock move up the day of, unfortunately, of his killing. It moved up, I think it was three bucks or so on Wednesday, yesterday the stock sold off. Today it was okay. And then all of a sudden, it was like somebody flipped a switch and it sold off and had a pretty tough day-to-day finishing down about $29.96. Again, one of the heaviest weighted stocks inside the Dow is no longer the biggest. Goldman Sachs is not the biggest. So this one's not far behind at $5.49 a share. But other than that, again, that was predominant reason for the weakness. But let's get into the details, my friend. Let's talk about what we actually did for everybody else because it was a good day again on the net on the S&P side with a nice record setting session. Yeah, I mean, you had a couple of retailers. It certainly shows that people are pretty and getting prettier with Lulu lemon up 15% and Ulta Beauty up what? 30-something percent today. You know, Doc, you signed up. Not 30%, 9%. 35 bucks. Oh, Ulta was up. Oh, 35 bucks. Yeah, 9% crazy. Yeah, I mean, Doc, you signed up. He's 30%. I was like, whoa, I missed out. Wouldn't surprise. There was one. Santa was up 40-something percent. I know. I know. I mean, these are those moves, right, where it's, you know, probably some places where people are short. Doc, you sign obviously being one of them, Lulu lemon being one of them, you know, trying to fade the consumer or fade technology and there aren't many bunkers to hide in right now. You know, I want to bring up an interesting point and keep your train of thought. What I'm noticing, like, you know, when I do my first report in the morning with Ross at 523 and I go through, you know, what the moves and shakers are of the day, what I'm starting to find Jason is there's a lot of names that are moving and shaking. Like you said, Asana and Gitlabs and rubric. Never heard of that. I mean, the list goes on names that most of us have never even heard of. But yet these are stocks that are just, you know, I won't use the word creeping up, but sometimes skyrocketing up. So my point is it's interesting that there's a lot of names out there that are doing very, very well and that we're starting to see a broadening out away from, you know, the household names, the Navidias, the Microsofts, etc. The world. Have you noticed that same thing? Yeah, no, it's very true. And I mean, you haven't seen much in terms of IPOs. And when's the last time a stock listed? I can't remember. Right. So it's, I mean, it's clearly supply and demand. There's no supply. And so people are chasing after whatever's the next big story or is the next big mover. And you know, this is symptomatic of a trading market. This is, you know, I'll go back and I know you'll remember. But when I was talking about all the bunny slipper traders, right? This, it's happening again. This is people at home banging around on their computers. And I'm so good. And you know what I mean? Like, and then, Oh my God, it's down 40%. What do I do? And so I think, you know, that is going to be the conversation we have probably within three months of these names that are moving up 15, 20% a day moving down 25 30% in a day, because valuation at this point isn't as much of a focus, right? It's probably just more of a chase or, as I mentioned, a lulu, a DocuSign Ulta. I mean, those are three stocks right there that are, you know, short darlings, people who have been, you know, negatively positioned that just get roasted when the thing moves against them. So it creates buying. If you're a hedge fund, you got a short something. And you know, those are often names that are more speculative, more consumer focus that have leveraged to the downside. The value, you bring up the valuation issue. And you know, it's interesting you bring that topic up also. I'm not hearing a lot of talk about concerns about valuation. They've stopped talking about it. They've stopped talking about it. Yeah, they really have. Because it's like, we're at, I mean, I had a chart earlier, I mean, again, if you expect that we're going to grow 16% on the sales side next year, which is what many are talking about, then valuation at current is high, but forward still isn't horrifically high. But you know, there are charts that compare us to 2000 that I'm looking at from a price earnings standpoint. You know, as long as we can continue to grow earnings, then things can be good. But you know, I was talking to a client earlier that, you know, companies haven't yet started talking bad, right? I mean, I've already heard the earnings call of, well, we're starting to see a deceleration. I'd argue it's quite the contrary. So just a few retailers, that's a little clever. Yeah, exactly. And they're, you know, they're they're already dying, right? The dollar generals of the world that are dealing with China and stuff. But you know, you're always, you know, keen to pick up when you hear the verbiage of some of these CEOs starting to talk pessimistic. That's usually a quarter or two or even three before downturns happen. We haven't heard any of that yet. And so that's why my biggest fear is more a geopolitical shock, an unknown, unknown that causes the things to move the other way versus we have plenty of time before company A, B or C starts talking about the consumer slowing or anything like that, which, again, provides some of that incremental confidence that this market still has some room to go on the upside despite valuation. You bet. You bet. All right. We'll add again, we'll be part of our discussion as we get into the five reasons we think things can go up and five reasons why we think they can go down. And also, let's not forget we had that little tiny report today called the non far payroll numbers that will give you the details about when we go when we return. We're not going to go into the details of the report like we did on a lot of Fridays got too many of the things to talk about. We'll bring up today on what happened in the labor side of the economy. Let's turn it over to Kristen Snow on this great Friday. How you doing my dear? Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on his talk, 780 kilos with Jason Gone. Happy Friday to all of you. Here's how we finished on the market. Again, a 20 123. Excuse me 123 decline on the Dow 0.28% to 44,642. Nasdaq rose 159.81% with a close of 19,859 and the S&P 500 higher by 15 points, a quarter percent to close at a record 6,090. On the weekly basis, the Russell 2000 lost 1.09%. The S&P gained 0.93. The Dow was a down 0.40 and the Nasdaq are star with a 3.12% gain. Oil for the day was down 1.7% to 67.17. A barrel. Gold rose $11.20. The 2006 59.63 basis point decline on the 10 year treasury finishing up 4.15 down three basis points for the week. Dwight brought up a great point. Dwight brought up a great point, Jason, last night on the show and he's like, "We're just not budgeting at all on the 10 year treasury." And it's true. It's been weak since we've really had much of a significant move. And I think that's one of the catalysts, of course, to the strength in the market. No one seems to be worried whatsoever about interest rates. And like you said, now a 90% probability we're going to get the quarter percent cut on December the 18th when the Fed meets. So yeah, bond markets way down the worry list right now. Yeah, I mean, the 10 years moved down 30 basis points or so in the last week and a half, two weeks, which is favorable. I mean, the fact that hopefully we can clean up some of the fiscal mess through, even if it's optics, I think has created a favorable backdrop and getting data like we got today gives incremental sort of confidence that the Fed can cut rates probably on a pretty shallow glide path. Again, I wouldn't be surprised to see high 3% by this time next year. But we shall see, obviously, anything can change with the geopolitical or some other, like it said, unknown, unknown of some kind. But yeah, I mean, the bond market doesn't seem alarmed. It's not freaking out, especially given the strength in the market. High yields not freaking out. I would say the backdrop, there aren't many spots that look like alarm bells are going off, other than like we talked about valuation, but things can be overbought and can be too expensive for a long, long time. So it occurred to me this morning, you know what I'd hate to be right now in our industry. I would hate to be an oil trader and I'd hate to be a bond trader. I bet they're bored stiff right now, especially the oil traders are maybe having a really hard time making a living because the same thing oil prices is really they've come down a bit. There's really having moved a significant amount. Real events. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. And you know, back to the the right side of things, I do want to throw this in. We had a significant decrease in the 30-year mortgage rate, according to Morgan's News Daily, down 16 basis points today on the 30-year fixed. Now, Jason, get this 6.68%, 6.68%. Yeah, that's very substantial. And the 15-year fixed broke 6%. It's now at 5.98%. That's actually the best rate that is out there versus 30-year FHA at 6.12 and 30-year VA at 6.13. Yeah, 15-year fixed, 5.98%. So that's going to appeal to a lot of people. And again, I like moving farther away from that 7%. Because that's that resistance level and borrowers' minds. So I think, you know, as I was talking with one of our clients today, this is I think one of the great things that's going to occur next year with these rates coming down. I think you're just going to see this real estate market just skyrocket. I think it's just just going to continue well above what we did this year. You know, we're 5% give or take, you know, appreciation year over year through December. But I think we're going to far surpass that next year. I really do. I think so many people are going to get off the sidelines and just start gobbling stuff up. Yeah, that's what I'm hearing. So you do think the rates come lower over the next year? I do. Yeah, I really do. I really do. It's I would not be surprised. You know, I would think that probably at least a year from now, we're not. I don't think, in other words, let me rephrase that. I don't think it'll take even a year before we go sub six. I really don't. I think you're going to see it come down. Well, like to your point, you think a year from now, you're going to see a 10-year treasury at 3% or so. We're at 4.15 now. So three handle. I don't think, yeah, I don't think, you know, low threes, but probably three and three quarter. Yeah. That would bring the 10. That would bring the 30 or mortgage below below six. You know, if we got that kind of drop there, you know, barring any other factors that go into the pricing models. But yeah, it's I. And I think that's one thing that again, that I'm sensing among our clients back to the, as we'll talk about, you know, the optimism that is out there right now. I think people, people were starting to see people move in the real estate data. We're starting to see people say, okay, I am going to give up that three or 4% mortgage I had because I want to get into that new house or that bigger house or whatever the case may be, whatever the catalyst is for them wanting to move. I think they're now starting to go, I can live with a six and a half, six and three quarter percent mortgage because the trend is down. I can always refinance, right? We all know that. But I want to get into something new because people are sitting on so much equity, not just here locally, but of course nationwide, there's so much equity, trillions and trillions of dollars. And like Corey always says, Jason, you know, you can only, you know, it's like, it's like somebody dangling some, you know, a wad of cash in front of you. You can only have discipline for so long and finally you're going to go, Hey, I'm going to sell this house or I'm going to refinance and even if I'm at a higher rate, I'm going to refinance to take some of this equity out and, you know, go do whatever I want to do. I think that's going to be part of the what we see next year also is a lot of capital coming out of the equity that people have in homes and whether it goes into the stock market where, you know, more real estate, whatever it is, I think people are really starting to get itchy in wanting to post the the triggering and pull some of that cash out. Don't you agree? Yeah, I think that we talked about, I don't know, a couple of weeks ago where, you know, I, the next big thing we hear about is creative reverse mortgages, right? Not the classic reverse that had happened before, but people just people really getting comfortable and better strategies and more knowledge around, you know, being able to, you know, even if it's through funds of some kind that are, you know, that's their whole mandate, you know, read maybe that just all they own is reverse mortgages or a, you know, a debt secures of some kind that that's what's inside of those things. So they can, you know, because people are going to want to stay in their home, they're going to want to, you know, be able to not have to leave where they're at and also get some of that equity without having to go pay the mortgage company to sell or rather a realtor to sell it or go, you know, pay all the money it takes to move from house A to house B. And I like my house, but I have all my money in it. What do I do? And someone's going to come up with some real smart ideas and maybe clear up some of the mystique around them whenever you hear reverse mortgage. It's like, Oh boy, you know, like someone's going to rob you blind. So it's interesting to see what comes exactly. Right. Yeah. They'll disown you if they move, if you move in with them. So you're going to stay in your house. See, do you want me to spend some of your equity for your inheritance? You want me to move? And you move in with your diaper when I get to that one. Exactly. Your choice, junior. Your choice. Don't don't give me a hard time about what it is. Tom Selick, call him quick. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. All right, when we come back, we're going to get into our topic again. Five reasons why the market may rise. Five why it may fall. It's turned over to Greg Neff. He's got news traffic and weather. Mr. Neff, how are you, sir? Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on his talk. 780k, which was Jason got Jason. Does this song remind you of anything when you hear it? Baseball. No, you don't remember do you? I think you and I were out feeding my cows on a blistery snowy February night with our former office manager. Yeah. This song came on in the truck as we were freezing in that, you know, 20 negative. It was a negative 20 degree weather. You were in the back seat of the song for some reason. We're talking about your days in Boston, where the song is. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Baseball, I think, Boston, you're my home, right? So I used to play the, they always used to play it like a Red Sox games and stuff. That's why baseball popped into my brain. So yeah, you said you love this. You said you love this song. I don't hear anything but you in that night. That was fun. Yeah. I mean, I remember some of it, but yeah, it was, it was fun. Remember you throw on the knee up in the air. I did. It went more on you than I did. More on me. It was new years. I'll get out. Yeah. Exactly. Good old times. Good old times. All right. Speaking of good times, I want to tell you about one I want you to put on your calendar because it is coming up quick. Matter of fact, next week on Wednesday, September, September, Jesus September, December the 11th. Goodness, John. Come on up. We've had a tough time with this one. Yeah. It's Wednesday December the 11th. Yeah. That's great, John. Yeah. 6.30 p.m. We're talking about our webinar and what is the title of it? Well, we're going to be talking about the 2024, 2025 economic recap and our investment outlook. You know, it's absolutely essential that you look back on the economic trends. You learn from it like we always talk about. What were the market movements and portfolio impacts of this year? This helps you build a strategy for success next year. So we're inviting you to join Jason and I for this exclusive webinar where we're going to impact the key financial lessons from 2024 that we learned and share our insight into what you can expect in 2025. We're going to go over to 2024 and review. We're going to take a snapshot of global GDP growth, inflation trends, stock market performance, portfolio impacts. We'll talk about some of the challenges we face this year, how inflation interest rates, volatility and geopolitical events shaped your decisions this year. Opportunities on earth, meaning emerging market trends, one of Jason's favorite areas, advancements in tech and AI and growth and sustainable markets. And then we're going to give you our 2025 outlook economic and market forecasts, sectors, poised for growth and actionable strategies to navigate next year. That's a lot. It is a lot. It is a lot, but we always seem to get it done though, don't we? We do. We do. So go to our website sanchoswealthmanagement.com, click on upcoming events and register. It's free and we love to see all of you there again next Wednesday, December the 11th, 630 p.m. All right, let's get down to our topic. I'm going to do a little trivia. It's Friday. We get to goof off a little bit. I'm going to give you a little trivia to start this off. Okay, here we go. Tell me I will be shocked. Stay can lobster to you. Okay, if you guess this answer right. Who famously said the following quote, don't gamble. Take all of your savings and buy some good stocks and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. Who do you think famous person said the incredible quote there? Will Rogers. Oh, you son of a gun. I've heard it before. Sorry. As soon as you started talking. Oh, you didn't stop me before I said. I had. Yeah. Yeah. Of course, it's my list. No trader does that. What was our last stake in lobster bet? We hadn't won. I know. I know. Was it rates? Yeah. I don't know. But who more importantly, who was the right news down? We really do really thrown him out there. But I'll let you out on that one. Yeah. Well, I am impressed. That is great. I stumbled upon that during during the break and great article on Bloomberg, by the way, folks, Bloomberg.com. Somebody that had his day in the sun, he's retired now. Kind of out of the line. That's Bill Gross, former bond king, as he used to be called. It's interesting. The reason I wanted to bring this up is because he's talking exactly what we're talking about. He's a little concerned about some things. He's a little concerned about markets being stretched and so on and so forth. Not saying that he's predicting a major pullback. But he's like kind of what we're saying. They can't continue on. This party can't continue on forever. So a really good article if you want to have something to read over the weekend. But that brings us to our topic. Again, five reasons why the stock market may rise. And of course, five reasons why it may fall. Jason, let me take this first one. I'll let you go to number two. My first reason that I think the market can rise is this. Trump and the nation's optimism, as I said, at our first segment. Once again, we are seeing, hearing, feeling, talking, listening to our clients and others, that there's this air of optimism that is out there. People are so giddy at this point. Business owners, investors, pretty much anybody that has money at stake, they seem to just be going, "You know what? I'm ready for this." And I feel like, Jason, it's a lake that is butted up against the big dam and that dam's going to open up. They're going to open the drainage and that water's going to start gushing out, meaning capital flowing into the economy and people just going, "I've got to buy everything, whether it's the stock market, whether it's real estate, whether it's starting new businesses. I have not felt this, and I can't tell you how many years." Well, probably since Trump was elected in 2016 and the start of the office in 2017, it's just really, really a great feeling. I'm giddy. I literally can't wait until 2025 to see how this whole thing starts to pan out. Again, it's not going to be a straight shot up, but I think we're just going to be in for some major positive surprises. So that's my first reason why I think the market can continue to rise. What's your next reason? Yeah, I think interest rates, we've talked about quite a bit that thought that the Fed is very restrictive as far as the economy is concerned, and despite the fact we're getting good numbers, it's still a lagging change. If they reduce rates, it takes some time for that to get in, and on the flip side of the economy starts to decelerate, it takes some time for that to get in. So of the opinion that lower interest rates will continue to occur through the first half of this next year, and probably stop come fall, just given what we're seeing as far as Fed funds, futures, et cetera. But those are going to be helpful for other areas of the market that have been held back. You're seeing small caps start to already run ahead of it, biotech starting to pick up. Again, I'm going off topic here, but I think biotech is something you have to be sniffing at. If you want to start to play bank shots on AI, man, this is going to be your spot. So please, please, please be looking there. But the lower rate environment certainly would be a tailwind that should help the markets into 25 and beyond. All right, love it. Great point. All right, let's go to my third point, which is strong corporate earnings. Someone alluded to this again in the first segment. We're not really seeing any major warning shots at all from major companies. Again, I'm going to exclude the retailers because they are so cyclical in nature. And for every retailer that has given us earnings warning, again, this was pretty much the week of retail earnings. For everyone that has given us somewhat of a week forecast, you've got five that are knocking the cover off the ball like a Costco and some of the others. So I'm going to throw the retailers out because that's such a goofy segment or sector of the economy. But if you look at everybody else, they're making money, folks. I mean, we're seeing stocks pop that that, oh, yeah, they reported a loss, but the loss was in as big as Wall Street thought. So the stock gives you a big run up there. So the investors are becoming very forgiving for companies that are still posting losses as they're in the growth phase of their lives, the corporate lives. And so overall, we take a look out that getting real technical. We look at the corporate earnings. Overall, very strong, I would say on a scale of one to 10, 10 be an excellent. I'm going to, I don't know about you, but I'm going to grade them at about seven and a half to maybe even an eight. Can that change on a, you know, next quarter? Of course, it can. But right now, what we can see is no one is giving any real negative. I mean, you get a few of them, but nothing real major as far as earnings forecast that are way below street expectations. And again, folks, remember this whole game is we always enlighten you on when in earnings season again, we're at the tail end of the earnings season now that that whole game where all the company has to do is say, yeah, yeah, we're going to be a little bit light on revenue or whatever Wall Street lowers their expectations and the company comes out, you know, a few weeks later and the earnings numbers come in and they come in just miraculously a little bit above, you know, where they said they were going to and the stock gets a big run up. No one is looking back like we should. We've all lost this. We should be going back. Not only what did the company do last quarter, but what did it do for the same quarter a year ago? No one does that anymore. It seems like Jason, it just seems like we are so focused on today. It's like, okay, what did the company do today? But more importantly, what's the guidance going for? And if the company's not giving a bad guidance, you know, you're seeing their stocks going up. So I think that's a very, very bullish sign. Come back and tell us what you think about the overall economy is your fourth point is for the reason why this market can continue to rise. Let's wrap it up with Kristen Snow. She is in the right now, traffic center. Hey, Kristen, welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on this stock 780K, which with Jason Gaunt. All right, once again, we finished down 123 on the Dow of 160 on the NASDAQ and a 15 point game on the S&P 500. All right, we're going to hustle there, Jay, five reasons why the market may rise. We said Trump and the optimism of the economy he is creating rates of stop rising. Strong corporate earnings. Give us your take on strong economies. I'm going to smash four and five together. Strong economy. I think talked about a lot. Demographics millennials bigger than the baby boomers average age in the US is 37 years old. It's going to continue to provide a tailwind. And I think the excitement over AI and all of the halo effects of big data and efficiencies from it are probably creating some excitement in the future as well, right? Will we see a bit of a pullback at some point when people are like, wait a minute, we're not making as much money as we thought from this stuff. But I think those who are able to utilize it will see earnings grow for years and years and years in the future. So a lot of positives in this sort of next stair step we're dealing with with technology right now. I love it. I love it. Great points. All right, let's go to our five reasons why the market can fall. Inflation increases due to tariffs. Now again, whether you're a tariff bull or a tariff bear, it doesn't matter. It's going to happen. If we see these tariffs like we have heard that we're going to again, we got a warning shot a few weeks ago from soon to be President Trump. You're going to see the tariffs increase. You're going to start seeing the tip for tap between our countries and our allies and our non allies, etc. But the bottom line is there's many on the street that fear that the tariffs of course could hamper the economy. Some are saying it could take as much as about 9/10 of a percent out of GDP and so on and so forth. So inflation, if inflation rises, the Fed's not going to give us the rate cut. So you can have a lot of nasty things potentially be impacted by the tariffs. So I'm going to wrap in 0.1 and 2 because inflation increases because of tariffs and then tariffs. So let's go to number three real quick. Yeah, labor shortages, if we see some mass deportation that could cause good bacteria number on inflation. So nobody's going to want to see that on the headline news, maybe some people will excited about it, but I certainly won't. But yeah, that will be something that certainly could cause the markets to freak a bit. I was having a zoom meeting with the client yesterday. We were talking about that. And I remember it's clear as day when ice came into local McDonald's over on Plum. Yeah. And just shut down the restaurant. That means shut it down. And I remember, you know, would you think about that? So yeah, nationwide, if you start seeing that happen, then that's too good for the market side of it. You mentioned geopolitical issues. Yeah, I don't need to bring that up. And then we mentioned valuation. So we kind of snuck those in already. So bottom line is, you know, which way is the scale tipping? Absolutely the scale is tipping to five reasons why this market can rise. We always have to be cognizant of things, why I can't. But overall, we think we're in for a great year next year. And that's why you need to attend our webinar again, just pick it up, sign up at our website at sanchezwealthmanagement.com. Have a great weekend, Jay. You too. All right, everybody. Appreciate you. God bless everybody. We'll see you on Monday. This program was sponsored by Sanchez Wealth Management. The material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taken as specific investment tax or legal advice. None of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Further information is available by contacting john@sanchezwealthmanagement.com or 775 800 1 801. John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through independent financial group LLC, a registered broker, dealer and investment advisor. Remember FINRA SIPC securities offered only in states, John Sanchez is registered in. Sanchez Wealth Management LLC and independent financial group LLC are unaffiliated entities. 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