The Duran Podcast
Georgia, Armenia and the death of the NGO state
All right, Alexander, let's talk about Georgia and the caucuses. We haven't talked about this region in a while. There was a law that is being passed in Georgia, which basically mirrors the U.S. FARA Act. I mean, it's pretty much the same thing as what the U.S. has with the Foreign Agents Act. But in this instance, there's been a lot of protests, and a lot of EU flags are being waived in the main squares of Georgia because they don't like this foreign agents act. I imagine it's because when people look at the books of all the NGOs and the financial statements, they're going to find a very uncomfortable truth, which is that these NGOs are not really funded by Russia, but they're funded by the collective West and funded a lot by the collective West. Anyway, what are your thoughts on what's happening in Georgia? The first thing to say is that, I mean, Georgia, like all of these countries like Ukraine, like Armenia now, have been caught up in this tug-of-war between ultimately the Russians, not that the Russians have really wanted to be involved in a tug-of-war with the West and these countries, but a tug-of-war between the Russians and the West. In other words, these were all countries that once formed part of the Soviet Union. They gained their independence in 1991, their trade links, the geography, all of that point that their history points to them needing to have good relations with Russia. Georgia, by the way, has a very long history of close relations with Russia going way back into the 18th century, and mostly, in fact, far and away the greatest part of that period, relations between Russians and Georgians have been very good. You go to Rupp Moscow today, you'll find lots of Georgian restaurants, for example. There's a large Georgian diaspora in Russia. There's an awful lot of interconnections between Russians and Georgians going all the way back, as I said, to the 18th century. And Georgia, by the way, just to add, is an orthodox Christian country, like Russia is an orthodox Christian country. So there are all these deep connections. There are some people in Georgia who don't like that. They want Georgia instead to align with the West and ultimately to join the EU and ultimately to join NATO. Now, if things had been allowed to take their course, if the West had not involved itself in this region, it is very likely that those people would have remained a minority. What happened is that starting from around 2000, perhaps a bit earlier, the West started to involve itself very deeply in the affairs of Georgia and Armenia. And it did so in the classic way by funding local NGOs, which are very well funded, which pay very big salaries, which are able over time to get significant traction over the media, and which gradually influence the opinion in these countries in a pro-Western direction. Firstly, you had the so-called Rose Revolution, which was largely propelled by these NGOs, which brought Mikhail Sakashvili to power. He took a fiercely anti-Russian, pro-Western, pro-Nator, pro-EU line. He always appeared everywhere with an EU flag. As I remember, he led Georgia into a catastrophic war against the Russians in 2008, which Georgia disastrously lost. He lost power a short time later because of the effect of that defeat. The swing came back and a new party again controlled Georgia's dream, which is the ruling party. Now, which has been trying slowly and gradually to rebuild relations with Russia, despite the problems left over from the Sakashvili era. And what they found, as they've been working to do that, is that they still have the same problem with these Western NGOs who have been Western-funded NGOs, who continue to agitate all the time for a reversal, of course, and a return to basically Sakashvili's line. And eventually, they have done that, which the Russians, for example, have done. They've started to move towards having a far-out type law in Georgia. And the experience of countries in this region, which succeed in passing far-out type laws, is that the Western-funded NGOs are unable to survive them. The revelation that they're funded by the West destroys their credibility. And the NGOs eventually start to fold and collapse. And so the prospects of a color revolution and a change of political direction begins to fade. So the result is that at this particular moment in time, there is intense resistors in Georgia organized by these NGOs to stop this law being passed. And that's why you have protesters in Belisi. People try to stop this law going through the Georgian Parliament so far. The parliament has held to its course. This is a complicated process passing a law like this. It takes several weeks to do. The Georgian president, who is pro-Western, is likely to veto the law. Once it is passed by the parliament, there's enough votes in the parliament apparently to override the president's veto. If the law is passed, there will probably be a continued period of instability before the law starts to have its effect. If it does have its effect, we will probably see the political situation in Georgia. Stabilize. If the law is not passed, or if there is a color revolution in the meantime, then we will see Georgia follow the course that Armenia has taken. The pro-Western course proved disastrous for Georgia in 2008. It's proving disastrous for Armenia now. I can't imagine that it will deliver for Georgia anything good. So that's a summary of what the situation is like. The collective west is going to fight tooth and nail to make sure that this law does not get passed. It all starts with the NGOs. That's where all your instability begins. It's the NGOs that cause all the instability and cause all the revolutions. I mean, we saw a play out in the Maidan. So many of the revolutions, the color revolutions, all the revolutions with all their interesting names, it's always the NGOs. I find it really interesting that here we are in 2024, and the countries still have not found a way to deal with these NGOs, and that these NGOs still have so much support, knowing that they cause so much instability in a country. They have support from the people or a large percentage of people, especially the young. Well, this is the key thing to understand, because of course the NGOs, if there was no reservoir of potential support of them, would not be able to function. But they are able to function, because there is this reservoir of support. I mean, throughout the former Soviet Union, there is a middle class, which perhaps has a result of the Soviet history, perhaps also even more a result of what happened in the post-Soviet period, always remains, to some extent at least, potentially attracted to the West. I think in Russia, that has changed, by the way. I think that the Russian, in the Russian period, they eventually got over that. But in other places, in Ukraine, in Georgia, in Armenia, that middle class exists. But where the NGOs are very powerful, and where they're very effective, is they have this enormous funding. That means that they can pay people salaries who work for them, which are far higher than the salaries that they would be able to get in any other position in the local economies. And that, of course, always makes the endures already attractive, because young people, their ambition is to be part of this extremely well-funded process. The other thing that the NGOs are very skilled at doing is that they gain control. They particularly focus on gaining control of the local media in these various countries. Again, that helps them to shape the debate in these countries. Now, what happened is that in this post-Soviet period, the governments of these countries, which themselves emerged out of the Soviet Union, were led by people who just didn't understand this kind of politics, because they have no real knowledge of it. I mean, they assume that you're providing control of the ministries, and provided you have the police on side, and all of that, you're able to maintain control in that way. It has taken a very long time for governments in these countries to gradually come to understand that public opinion, currents of public opinion matter, and also the other factor is that all of these countries, Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, even governments that ultimately were targeted for removal by the West, Moldova as well, by the way. They wanted good relations with the West, which made them very reluctant to go against institutions within their own countries and societies that were funded by the West. What has gradually started to happen, and the Russians led the way with the so-called white-ribbon-attempted-cutter-revolution of 2011-2012, is that the Russians gradually said, "We've got to get on top of this NGO thing," so they passed their version of the fireball, and gradually other governments across the former Soviet space come to understand that it is for them in existential matter, have started to follow the course which the Russians led, and you're starting to see action being taken to close down these NGOs and to pass similar foreign-type laws, and gradually, slowly, one gets the sense that color revolutions are becoming more difficult and more difficult to organize, and that NGOs of this kind are finding it more difficult to operate. I mean, you saw that in Kazakhstan about two years ago, and you're seeing it perhaps in Georgia now. Yeah, Kazakhstan seemed like a turning point. You mentioned Armenia just to close out the video. Pashinyan is still pushing forward with Armenia's realignment into the European Union and NATO, or with the European Union and NATO. Russia, for its part, seems to be building stronger ties with Azerbaijan. Armenia's heading towards a disastrous, it's on a disastrous course, isn't it? Absolutely, that is exactly true. And eventually, I think what the Russians calculate is that eventually the time will come when they will come to their senses and will realign, but in the meantime, as Azerbaijan is becoming emboldened, and exactly as we predicted, they are now starting to make further claims on Armenian territory. They're starting to say that this village and that village on the border really belongs to Azerbaijan and should be transferred, and you can see how eventually they're going to take step by step, they're going to demand that the corridor that Armenia has, which cuts off Nahichivan, that entire area should be transferred to Azerbaijan as well. It is a disastrous course, but a member of my family who knows this region well and has travelled to both Armenia and Georgia. He has told me precisely this, that these are NGO states, or at least Georgia was, he visited Georgia in Sakhashvili's time, and he said that at that time it was obvious that it was an NGO state, all the people who ran things in ministries and governments, ultimately were people who came out of the NGOs. And he's telling tell us either, Armenia is today exactly the same. It's people who come out of this system, this ecosystem, who are now in the government and who are leading Armenia down this course, which of course, as things get worse, they have the ready-made excuse for why they're getting worse, which is Russia. You see the same by the way, Moldova with Maria Sandu. It's exactly the same there. Yeah, it's all the same script. Okay, we will end it there at the Duran.logos.com. 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