The Duran Podcast
Shoigu, Russian offensive. Ukraine, Donbass collapse
All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Ukraine, and we definitely have to start with the front lines, a collapse on the front lines. I think it's fair to say that at this point, that the front lines are collapsing in Ukraine. That's exactly what's happening. Can I just say, it's so strange to see how this has happened because it's happened sort of by stealth, but which I don't mean that the Russians have done anything secretly. But the media in the West has not really been covering it until just now. Now they're starting to see what is going on, and it's not had the kind of coverage that one needs to, you know, that you'd expect an event in this scale to actually, you know, marry it. But we are, we are looking at a collapse. I mean, and the focus of it is in the area west of Adevka and north of Adevka as well. The Russians have punched a hole through the front lines, the Ukrainian front lines. They're collapsing one by one, and we're getting a whole string of villages falling one after the other. The key one was Orchiretino, which we've talked about many times on our programs, but the Russians have now captured two other important villages, Novokalinova and Karamik. There are reports this morning that they are close to capturing another village called Arhangelskaya, which is immediately to the north of Orchiretino. The key thing to understand is that Ukrainian units are disintegrating. I mean, this has now even been admitted by forms. They've done a piece on the 47th Mechanised Brigade, which is the elite brigade that Ukraine, that the West built up them, which was given the Bradleys and first the Leopard 2s, and then the Abraham's tanks. And apparently it's essentially collapsed and needs urgent refit. They're also getting reports that more and more brigades are refusing orders to fight. The Third Assault Brigade, which is the Azov Brigade by another name, apparently has now again refused orders to go to battle, go to battle in the Orchiretino area. And we're looking at a collapse there. And the key thing is that the Russians are gradually getting control of all the main roads and all the main railway lines. And we've now had a piece in the Financial Times, which admits for the first time that this looks like an emerging big southern pincer, outflanking pincer, that we'll start advancing north and we'll join up eventually with another northern pincer that the Russians are building up around Chassefjár, which again, we've had lots of reports that Ukrainian resistance is now starting to crumble in the eastern parts of Chassefjár. The micro-district to the east of the canal, the Russians have now reached the canal. This is the canal that bisects Chassefjár into. There are apparently areas where the canal goes underground, under tunnels, and the Russians are coming very close to establishing themselves along those. So the canal is not an impenetrable barrier by any means. And it looks like Chassefjár is in the early stages of a siege and an eventual collapse. And there was a rather panicky article in the Financial Times. Now, they were just keeping the panic under control. But they admit, you know, what's going on around Ocereitino, if Chassefjár collapses as well, because of its location, because of the fact that it's on a hill and it dominates the landscape around it, because, again, of the network of roads and railways that interconnect with Chassefjár and Bachmut, well, it could be and probably will be curtains for the Ukrainians in Donbass, that the whole defence that the Ukrainians have in Donbass is going to collapse. So it's a major operational crisis, and perhaps with the Ukrainians at the moment, the key thing now is not to try to hold on to Donbass, which even Ukrainian officials are apparently privately saying is lost, but to try to preserve their army, which is at serious risk of getting surrounded and cut off. So this is the crisis that we are looking at, and it was those other problems in other parts of the front line as well, there's rumours of an offensive in Harkov region. We've got reports that the Russians have made more advances in the south around Ocereitino. There are even some claims that capture this village that has been fought over in which the media in the west were talking about as if it was some kind of Stalingrad, which of course it's a tiny village, but anyway, it's whatever. But the key events are happening in central Donbass. That's the centre of gravity of the Russian advance. It always has been, and yesterday, the Russian defence minister, Sergey Shuyu, attended a meeting of senior military officers in charge of the overall operation, and he used the word offensive for the first time. He said that the Russians are in the process of conducting an offensive. So it's no longer active defence, it's no longer the Russians hedging around pretending that their attacks are just opportunistic attacks. He's now talking about an offensive, and we see the evidence of that on the ground. Yeah, it seems like the Russian military is also a lot more active in their bombing of Odessa, like warehouses and facilities, and Odessa Nicalayev, that whole region, and whatever equipment or ammunition or other weapons that are getting sent to Odessa, seems like the Russians are able to target those facilities a lot better and to take them out a lot quicker. Are you seeing that as well? Absolutely, and again, this is a big story. In fact, we're not only getting reports that massive damage is being done on warehouses and other facilities in Odessa itself, but there are also reports that large numbers of Ukrainian official, senior officials are being killed in these strikes, and the Russians have just said that they attacked the actual headquarters of the Ukrainian military in the whole of southern Ukraine, and that they struck this headquarters and apparently large numbers of Ukrainian officers were killed in those strikes. Now I think this is, serves a number of purposes, firstly, they're hunting the Western equipment, which is not apparently getting through to the front lines, at least not for the moment. That's what the Ukrainians are saying, and they're complaining angrily about it. Secondly, they're again going for the top officers, and thirdly, I think they're retaliating for what have so far been rather ineffective missile strikes by the Ukrainians against Crimea. Now, Ukraine has been supplied with attack on missiles, we've discussed in recent programs that the objective appears to be a major strike against the Crimean bridge. I still think, I think most people suppose that this is still the plan, but the Russians are getting their punch in first, and so far, it must be said the attackers don't seem to be doing the damage that some people expected. In fact, I've seen a report from a Ukrainian telegram channel, I think it was resident, in which they said that attacking the Crimean bridge would require something like 100 attack of missiles, which would be practically the entire stop that Ukraine has of these missiles. It would do a certain amount of damage if some of these missiles got through, but not enough to destroy the bridge entirely, and they guesstimated that the bridge would be back in operation in two to three months. So we can see that it is purely, this is correct, a demonstration attack, it's one intended to spoil the holidays, and we can see the futility of it if this assessment is true. Not to mention that you have officials in Ukraine also saying that their retaliation from Russia would be absolutely devastating, and you actually have officials warning the Ukraine government, the Ukraine military, don't do it. It doesn't benefit us to, there's no military benefit to visit the Kerch bridge, and the retaliation would be so punishing that it's just simply not worth it. So you are getting those warnings from? We are indeed. And can I just again, reflote a theory, and it's purely my own theory now, that about what one thing that the Russians might do, I said that the priority for the Ukrainians in Donbas is probably not to hold on to Donbas, but to save their army. One potential retaliation that the Russians could conduct now, is to go after and destroy the need for bridges. Now there's been a lot of discussion as to why the Russians haven't attacked this bridges in the past, there were military reasons apparently, which I'm not going to go into. There were also problems, technical problems, in that the Russians perhaps in 2022 lack the means to destroy the need for bridges, it would have required a novel or a misanswer to destroy each bridge. But I've also suggested, I've also floated the possibility, that the Russians had basically held back from attacking the need for bridges, because they were prepared to use that to retaliate as a means of retaliation, if there is that kind of a strike on the Crimean bridge. Now I have been told by a very authoritative source, and I've done my own inquiries, and this is confirmed, that the Russians now absolutely do have the means to destroy the need for bridges. They, the Kinjal missiles, any single Kinjal missile could destroy a Kinjal bridge if he'd hit it, and moreover, the accuracy of these missiles is now much greater than it was in 2022, so the Russians could launch missiles at the deeper bridges, they would hit, and they would destroy those bridges. Now if they do destroy those bridges, the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine is cut off, it can't get supplies, and it can't retreat, so it would be a catastrophe for Ukraine. Nonetheless, I still think that this is what the Ukrainians are going to do, because the political military decision making process, both in Kiev and Washington, is now so chaotic, so disorganized that I no longer think they're making rational military decisions anymore. I think they're prepared to take the risks, the risks that the Russians would go after the deeper bridges, that are prepared to sacrifice their army in eastern Ukraine, because firstly they have to go down, if they're going down with a bang, by taking off the Crimean bridge. I think there are people in Washington who are now very keen to see that done, because they have to hit back at Putin, as they see it in some way, and I think some people still have this fantasy idea that even if the army is lost in the east, if the whole of the east is lost, we can still build up our great defence line on the west bank of the Nipa River and hold back the Russians indefinitely and get the French and the British and the Germans to have built up the fortified lines for us. But anyway, that's a theory I have. I've tested it out with a few people, and it's absolutely something that the Russians could do, and a strike on the Crimean bridge might be the excuse the Russians are waiting for to do it. Yeah, well, yes, the question, why do they need an excuse? It just shows that the Russians are very cautious. I don't even know if that's the right word. When it comes to fighting this conflict, I mean, I know there might be some diplomacy, some back-channel discussions that have taken place with the Americans with regards to the bridges and what red lines each side is allowed to cross. I understand that that might have taken place and that definitely does take place in conflicts like this. But it just shows that even two years, two plus years into this conflict, it shows how cautious or risk averse. I don't want to say soft, but I can't think of the word for it, that that plankton has been waging this war, and I go back to what Putin said, we've repeated it a thousand times. We haven't even started yet. Correct. Putin still has not taken off the gloves, if we're honest. No, no, he hasn't. Can I also suggest a word which is legalistic? I mean, one objection, it's a strong objection to attacking the NEPA bridges is, of course, that they are civilian infrastructure. I mean, they also have a dual-use purpose in the sense that the Ukrainians are sending troops and supplies across these bridges. But the Russians also send or have done in the past sent troops and supplies across the Crimean bridge. So, you know, the Russians, however, would now be in a position to say, look, we're no longer sending any troops and supplies across the Crimean bridge, yet you have attacked civilian infrastructure, you have to attack specifically the Crimean bridge. So, this is the moment when we retaliate by destroying your bridges, which, yes, we agree, they are civilian infrastructure, but they also have a dual-use purpose because you're sending your military supplies across it. And we've refrained from doing it up to now because it's a special military operation. We've wanted to avoid going after your civilian infrastructure, but now we're taking the gloves off because you're not respecting the rules. And it's the same with the energy system. They were very slow going after the really key points in the energy system, but Ukraine was stupid enough to attack Russian oil refineries and the Gats, given the Russians the excuse to go after the power plants and all of those things across Ukraine. And of course, it's the Russians who are making that linkage, so you can see how it works out. Yeah, well, you know, the Ukraine has got after the Kirch Bridge, I believe, two times, or three, two times they've hit it, I believe. And there have been civilian deaths when they hit the bridge. So there's that. We have the F-16s, there's talk about the F-16s coming to the battle. Indeed, and coming back. I don't know if I believe this or not. I do, I actually do believe this. Absolutely. I believe the F-16s. I mean, you go back to what you said. Go on. No, I was just going to say, my big question is where are they going to take off from and who's going to pilot them? That's all I have to say. I mean, going back to our last programme, talking about Ukraine, you were saying that the whole story about F-16s appearing at the end of this year will in 2015 look like misdirection. And it's increasingly looking as if it is. The latest claims are that they're about to arrive and that they will be in Ukraine after Easter. I mean, I don't know whether that is true. But again, relatively few of them, uncertain who's going to fly them. The air feels hardly in a condition apparently to operate them. The Russians will come after them. And these are not stealthy aircraft. They've been around for a very long time. The Russians are familiar with them. They have an enormously advanced air defence system. They can track them. They can shoot them down. It's not going to make the difference that people have said, just as the attack comes at the moment is not making the difference that people said. So the whole situation is now working out in a very, very clear way. We are now in the early stages of a Russian offensive. That's what you said. And it looks unstoppable. I mean, one of the things that we are starting to see, going back to what we were discussing at the beginning of the program, is that when the Russians now attack a particular position, they capture it very quickly. Whereas before the Ukrainians would put up a fight, the Russians would not have huge numerical superiority. They would slog it out for weeks or months sometimes. But now, the village after village is tumbling into Russian hands within a few days. Yeah. I imagine a lot of it also has to do with the fact that Russia has pretty much gone through two or three Ukraine military. So they've definitely gone through the best soldiers that Ukraine had, at least in the beginning of the conflict. I think that the NCOs and the officers, the junior officers, the small unit leaders, in fact, they're increasingly saying that the proportion of recently mobilized untrained troops that they're coming up against on the battle lines is now increasing rapidly. And there are even Ukrainian admissions about this, that the professional Ukrainian army that existed at the start of the war has to all in terms of purposes cease to exist. Yeah, they've been wiped out. The people that they have fighting right now, these aren't people that want to fight and trying to send them from Europe, trying to send the Ukrainians that are in Europe to the front line is not going to make the situation any better. But we are getting towards a point where the collective West in Europe is going to have to make a decision about boots on the ground. I think the F-16s take us to that point. Once the F-16s enter the battle, if the F-16s enter the battle and if Russia destroys those F-16s, if Russia continues to defend against the attack arms, which it looks like they will, on positive, they will, Europe is going to have to come to a point where they make a decision, the U.S. is going to have to come to a point where they make a decision, perhaps the U.S. makes the decision on behalf of Europe. I don't know, but do we put boots on the ground? Do we send troops to Odessa? I really believe that the focus is going to be on Odessa more than Kiev. But that's where we're heading towards it and I think that's the point where the rest of this conflict is going to play out or how this conflict will play out going forward. You are absolutely right. We're coming to that point very fast, much faster than the Biden administration, the Democrats in the United States and the Europeans all expected. They were hoping that they'd be able to drag things out with these new U.S. arms deliveries to the end of the year. And, you know, perhaps they will. But at the moment, it looks like the collapse is happening much faster. I mean, I would not put money on Ukraine avoiding a clear cut military collapse before the summer, reaching the summer. In fact, the Ukrainians themselves, there are Ukrainians themselves saying that Donbas, the big battle that's going on there, which is the main battle could be over by October. October is just a few weeks before the election in the United States. If Donbas is lost, I've said this many times, the Russians reach the Napa, then militarily we have a major crisis. It would be like what happened in Vietnam in April, 1975, just to give a comparison, when the North Vietnamese captured the northern area of South Vietnam. It didn't, on the map, look like an enormous advance. But in practice, that was the moment when it became clear that South Vietnam was disintegrating. And that would be the same in this case. So they will have to make a decision much sooner than they expected, if this glaze out in the way I've just said, much sooner than they expected or wanted, and before the presidential election. And that is for them the absolute nightmare scenario. Did they come along and say, you know, we're going to have boots on the ground, European boots on the ground, some kind of guarantee from the United States, because realistically that has to happen before November? Or do they accept that the war is lost, try to find some kind of solution, negotiated solution, or perhaps scrap even that idea, and decide instead that they've got to build up some kind of defence lines in Europe instead. And then, of course, how do they explain the collapse before the election? If that's what happens. You remember how we discussed a couple of months ago, when, you know, the aid package for Ukraine was still log jammed in the House of Representatives, but the worst outcome for the Biden administration would be one, where the aid package was passed and Ukraine collapsed in the summer anyway. We might be actually starting to look at precisely that kind of scenario. How do they spin it in the election? We'll just see. We warned them. We warned them. So my final question to you is when will Macron call a Putin and try to negotiate a Minsk three, much the same way that Merkel called a Putin and convinced Putin to agree to Minsk when the way that the Balsalveau surrounded in 2014-15? Well, the way they... I think we're going to see a repeat of that. Yeah, we all really believe we're going to see some kind of repeat of that. We are going to see a repeat of that. And it's not actually difficult to see how it's going to shape out, because they're trying to put together a conference, a peace conference, as they say, in Switzerland in June. That's only a few weeks away now. It's not clear who's going to attend, but the idea is that they'll get together a group of like-minded countries, present a peace package, as they call it, to the Russians, and that will be Minsk three. The problem is the Russians have already said they're not interested in what happens in Switzerland. They don't accept Switzerland as a neutral player, and for the moment, the really big countries, the ones that really matter above all China, don't seem to be interested in this conference at all. So they're trying to use this conference as possibly a springboard for a Minsk three, but it doesn't look as if the Russians are going to be influenced by it. Now, the Russians for their side have just done something, and one should not overlook the politics of this. They've done something which I think is intended amongst anything else, everything else, to convey to the West the strength of their resolve. And this is this big exhibition that they've put on in Moscow, all the captured equipment, the Abraham's tanks, the leopard to tanks, all of those things that, you know, they've showcased there. But, you know, quite apart from doing all of that, the messaging that is coming up from the Russians in connection with this exhibition is implacable. They've put on, they've added to the display a German World War II self-propelled gun that the Russians captured in the Second World War and which participated in a similar display of captured German equipment that the Russians put together in Moscow in 1943. So they're linking up that wall with this wall, and they made some extraordinary statements. The Defense Ministry yesterday spoke about how the whatever weapon systems the West delivers, it's not going to change the outcome. The Russians are going to move on towards victory. It used that word, and there was another passage, very strong passage in which they made the claim that our strength is in truth. Now that's a famous line in Russia. It actually comes from a very well-known Russian film. I've just done some research about this. I just asked, you know, where it comes from. It comes from a specific film, and it makes it clear that the Russians see themselves as being the moral party in this conflict, and that the West is not. And the point about that film is that expression our strength is in truth, was actually said in that film by a Russian to an American. So you can see how tough they are. All of this happening on the same day that the Russian Defense Minister says that we are undertaking an offensive, and we must give the maximum degree of support to our troops. We must step up supplies to make sure that the pace of the offensive is maintained, and that the plan, which is being executed, is performed. So you know, it's very, very tough language from the Russians. That doesn't seem to me like they're preparing for a Minsk 3, or are interested in more. Yeah. All right. We will end it there. The Duran.locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey Bitchewed Telegram, Rockfin, and Twitter X, and go to the Duran shop. Look for limited edition merch. The link is in the description box down below. Take care. [MUSIC]