This is the story of the one. As head of maintenance at a concert hall, he knows the show must always go on. That's why he works behind the scenes, ensuring every light is working, the HVAC is humming, and his facility shines. With Granger's supplies and solutions for every challenge he faces, plus 24/7 customer support, his venue never misses a beat. Call quickgranger.com or just.buy. Granger, for the ones who get it done. [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] PGA nation. We are back, and we are back in a big way. The second major PGA championship heading to Kentucky. Now, it's going to be a fun, fun golf tournament. Full field, which we haven't seen for a while. We're going to dust off our old models because there are 156 golfers in this field. There will be a cut, which, honestly, now is safe to say it's not what we're used to in the more recent tournaments, and it's as full of field as we've seen. Not only is it PGA and Liv golfers, they're letting people in from Liv that aren't even just the guys that qualify, which is good for golf. That's what we want. That's what we need, the best golfers in the world in one tournament. So we have our workout for this week, but this is what we play for. This is a super exciting week. I can't wait to break it down with you. Spence, how are you doing tonight? >> I'm doing well, Joel. I see Zach in the chat right now talking about the time move, and I don't know if any of us on this show know who actually took down the draft last week if it wasn't the audience, it was probably David. The audience has been on fire for what feels like three months. Now, whether that was a first or second place finish last week, it's been one top notch move after the next. So I don't know, I mean, maybe Zach's right, this time shift not having as many people in here if that's what ends up happening. All I know is that I need to turn something around right now. >> Well, I was thinking about changing the audience's name to Frankenstein, because apparently we've created a monster. And the audience's ability to great dominate one of David, how do you do it today? >> I'm good, mate, I'm good. I mean, Joel, do you want to explain to everyone in team audience why we were at the earliest start time today, I don't have a clue, I don't know if Spence does, but maybe you can explain it. >> I'd be happy to, so there's a few reasons. David is on vacation, so I didn't want him to sleep in too late. I wanted to make sure he got up extra early, and got the recording showing. So that's the main reason. I don't think it has anything to do with the Nick game tonight at eight o'clock. I wouldn't imagine there's any reason why we would move the show around that Nick game. >> Yeah, I mean, it might be that, but yeah, I appreciate the early wake up call one. I'm here in Manila, Philippines actually at the moment. So it's extra early for me much more than usual. But look Joel, I'll forgive you. I had a radio interview at 6am anyway. So I can stay up for the 7am PJ Draftcuss and join all you. Lovely folk for another major championship. So as you said, super exciting to see a really strong field. See a few of the live guys get invites that we haven't seen recently, although surprising Louis Ustay's in tune down that invite because he's moving house this week. You know, of all the reasons to not play in a major championship, that has to be the most interesting. >> Yeah, I agree, and I mean, listen, Louis is not the best popular, but he's good enough. He's made a lot of money. Like, doesn't people or that, don't people who are that rich just pay someone to move their house? Like, what does he do? And he's not lifting up anything. He's just paying someone else to do it. So he should go to the PJ Championship and earn that paycheck so he can be basically a free move. But he made his choice. >> Yeah, I mean, I have an ongoing authority that he's booked a U-hole. And he's got the U-hole coming and he's pecking boxes and moving them in himself. So, you're not good for him? >> Good for him is right. Hey, if you're new tonight and joining us for the first time, we're going to give you, of course, breakdown. I'm just going to tell you what to look for at Valhalla this week. This will be really helpful in picking golfers. But we're also going to draft teams. And if you are new or the time is new and you're a little confused what's going on, yes, we usually record at 9 p.m. tonight, it's at seven. If you watch the show on YouTube, you can participate in the draft. So you can get in the chat, you can put in pics. The team audience drifts their own team, so you can get involved. So if you're looking at how to do that, how do you chat and get comments? Lie into YouTube, find the draft cast, participate yourself, get involved in the chat, draft the team. Zach Jeffers, who we just commented in the chat now, he typically helps lead the team audience to confirm to your pics. So it won't be hard for you to catch up and follow along. Before we dive in, spend enlighten us, what are you looking for this week in your golfers at Valhalla? Yeah, Valhalla is going to be an extremely lengthy track on paper. It measures 7,609 yards. You get this thick rough in the Zoysia grass fairway. I talked about this a little bit in my Roto Bowler article yesterday. It's like this fire and ice combination. Since the rough and peeds roll out on this tricky Nicholas design, however, the firm and fast conditions of the fairways create this fiery nature that will and can very quickly run your balls into the numerous sand traps located throughout the property. I decided in my model to look at both of those two factors. I want to look at proximity totals when I combine that together. That doesn't necessarily mean that these fairways will be impossible to hit, at least as much so as we've gotten during some iterations of this tournament. I've looked at this course and there's a lot of news that has come out about it where you have this three tiered rough. And if you get into the third tier of it, it gets very thick all of a sudden. I think the questions that people have right now is, is that just so wayward that it's taking anything but the most wayward drives out of play? I do tend to think that when you look at this tournament from top to bottom, it's probably going to be easier than most of these PGA championships that we get. There's wet conditions right now with all the rains that's hit the Kentucky area. I do think at its core though, all PGA championship designs take on a very similar outlook. You're always going to need this total driving that's geared towards distance. Long iron play ends up playing that secondary metric that comes into the mix. I did weigh putting probably more than most people because that par-saving quality is going to be needed at the back end of the equation there when you do miss a green in regulation. But we heard Justin Thomas talk about this today and we've even seen it both of the two times that we've essentially gotten a PGA championship here. It's hard to separate yourself from the pack and I think it's probably even more difficult this year with a lot of the ways that we're looking at it because you get this thick rough around the surface. To me, anytime that you have extremely thick rough, that takes away some of the high-end skills that you're looking for. Think of Augusta National and think of how that ends up forming the around the green prowess and everything that's needed. It's almost this artistic mastery that comes into play where here it becomes more of this chop it out, make your putt, move forward there. I do think that the course is very basic in what the expectation is with it. I don't think it's as much distance as some people are going to look at when you see the 7,609 yard venue. Nicholas always has some strategic nature to his properties but it kind of keeps going back to what I said just a second ago. It is very challenging at this course to separate yourself and for a DFS perspective, it opens up the equations a little bit of what we want to be looking for and how we're going to build our model and how we can separate from the pack from there. I love it. I love it. That is very important, especially this week with a full field, 156 golfers to choose from. It's important that you have a profile of golfer to target, to get your edge, to make sure you have a chance at competing in this field. I will add the caveat to that. That doesn't mean, as Spencer said, this is a very long golf course. That doesn't mean you can only play the long drivers. There are going to be some guys who aren't that long that end up somewhere in the top 10 or 20 in the leaderboard. Guys who are playing good golf, maybe not the long-lit drivers or what have you, can still compete in a tournament like this. But listen that back if you need to understanding the type and profile golfer that can success at a course like this will be huge to finding success in DFS this week. Now on draft Kings and on other sites, you know, because it's a major, you have the best tournament. So you can go after the million million maker with 140,000 entries, you can go up through some of the high stakes tournament, but however you like to play DFS, you certainly will have those options this week. But for tonight, it's a snake draft. So we'll pull the draft board up now. David had excellent draft last week, he drafted Roy McRoy the winner. So he picked the order tonight and the order is going to go Spencer, me, David, the audience, you will be going forth. Like I said, it works next style. So audience, you will get two in a row and then it will come back. You do need to draft a team within your draft Kings salary. So you can't just pick all the best players, you need to make sure each player you take, you can afford and you can draft a team that will fit a draft Kings salary. Without further ado with the first pick, Spence, you're on the clock. I made this joke to David before we started. And me having the number one pick is never advantageous because I always alter my strategy at the very beginning. And I usually jump towards the top of the board and I find myself in this position later on when naturally as this draft ends up happening, it falls apart and I end up having the scramble. And I'm going to take a different approach this week than I normally would there. And this isn't necessarily the number one golfer. I am going to shockingly Joel, leave you somebody at the number two pick here. I think I want to play this in a safety way. And there's a lot of value at the top that I still like. I'm okay getting the majority of these names that we want to talk about. When I look at the $9,000 and up section and we'll just look at the $9,000 section in general right now, there are essentially two golfers in my model in the $9,000. That would be a value based off of where my model has them projected when you compare it to what their actual price tag is. One of them is arguably going to be one of the most popular players on the list this week. And I'm sure everybody could deduce what that name is going to be. And we can have those conversations later of whether that's good bad play in between whatever that ends up being. I'm going to go for a little bit flatter of a start here. I'm going to let you guys make the decisions at the top. And then I'm going to try to figure out how to work my way weave in and out of this. I'm going to take Joaquin Neiman at 9,400. I have this take here to where and we could have this conversation about a lot of live golfers. It's not just him in this particular outlook of what I'm viewing here. But think of Neiman when we got to the Masters and he was one of the most popular bets on the board. He got bet down originally when people didn't know he was in the field all the way down into this. I mean there were some books that had him in the low 20s at the Masters at some point. And I think this over correction has occurred in the eyes of many here. You're not necessarily getting a cheaper price tag on DraftKings. That has remained flat from what we had at the Masters. But this lack of people that are wanting to go back to this play here, whether that's an outright ticket. Or it's a DFS price that we're a DFS ownership that we're talking about here. I see about 12% right now. I think he's good leverage at that price. I think his upside is one of the better values that we can get in this board. And Neiman was inside of the top 10 of my model for both weighted scoring and an additional other categories that I ran. I really liked Neiman this week as a buyback opportunity. And as I said, this wouldn't necessarily be the number one player if we were having a draft of let's rank the players who are most likely to win. But with there only being one other player in the 9,000 sets value and I only have two players in the 8,000s that were value. I'm going to go here with Neiman at 9,400. I'm surprised at your first like I like Neiman this week. But I was not expecting him to be the first pick in the draft. I'll go to you, David, are you playing what he and Neiman this week? I'm absolutely devastated. I've been biting my tongue throughout this whole thing while Spence has been going on his Neiman rant because I set the draft order today and having been victorious last week, we think. And I figured that I'll give Spence and Joel the first two picks because they'll get Rory McElroy, Scottie Sheffler, John Rahm, somebody at the top. And I'll like sit here in third spot quite nicely and take Joaquin Neiman with my first pick. And Spence has just gone and torn up the playbook, taken Neiman with his first pick, absolutely ruined the rest of this draft for me before I've even picked a player. So thanks to you, Spence, from Manila to Las Vegas, I'm still destroying lineups for me. There you have it. The Joaquin Neiman first pick endorsed off the board. All right. Well, it's no surprise who I'm taking with the second pick. I mean, I'm going for the Grand Slam. I'm going to get the Grand Slam, I hope, in the draft cast, as well as Sheffler getting it in real life this year. I don't think having a baby is going to slow him down. He's in the way he's been playing like an absolute machine since March, he's won every tournament he's played but won in that tournament he went extra holes and got something. So this is the best golfer in the world by a wide margin. In a four man tournament, any four man tournament, obviously one we're doing now, to me, it's a great play every single time. The only argument I would even make against Sheffler is I can see a world where someone where Sheffler could win this tournament and he could still not be in the winning lineup because of how expensive he is. So there's a world where there's a balance build of six guys in the top 10 that could just be to Sheffler lineup because of what you can afford to matter of, you know, be able to nail some of the value plays that go along with them to make it work. But in terms of upside, it's hard to imagine anything worse than a very, very, very worst case a top 10 and a Scottish Sheffler this week. So you don't need to tell me to tell you this guy, Sheffler is good in golf. We all if you're watching this show, you know that by now. So any additional feedback or comments on Sheffler will start with you Spence. I think the only thing I would say to this and I agree that having a kid is is not a reason of any kind why I wouldn't play him. I think it comes down to contest selection at the end of the day. I mean, that's that's going to be the ultimate. If we're looking here as a, if this was nothing more and all we're trying to do on the show is can we beat the other three people? I'm putting Scotty Sheffler into my lineup and I'm moving forward with it. I think there's discussions to be had in different sort of contests of which route you want to go. But look, he's the number one player in the world. He's the most dominant name right now. I'm not going to come on a show and say that anything bad about Scotty Sheffler, like he's the number one player in my model by about double the points of the way that I graded of anybody else. There you have it. How about you, David? Any reason to maybe not play Scotty Sheffler this week? It's going to be really interesting to see the ownership on Sheffler, right? Like, I wonder if people will read too much into the baby narrative as you kind of alluded to. I mean, Loki should really be kind of 25, 30 percent owned. We know how he's been playing. And for me, the birth of the child, their first born kind of came at the perfect time. Like, it happened on a Monday. Like, he can still get to Valhalla. You can still do his practice rounds. You can still see the course. You know, it wasn't like his preparation for this tournament was disrupted as a result of the baby coming. So that for me, like, I think if we do see a swinging ownership, I'm really interested to see where his percentage ends up because if that swinging ownership goes too far the other way because of the baby and people like, "Oh, he's getting bad sleep." And, you know, his mind's not on this, you know, he's all twinkly eyed with the birth of his baby. You know, I think that he could be interesting if he goes less than 30 percent. There you have it. I love it. I love a good strategy for this week. David, with your first pick, you are on the clock. Yeah. Well, I mean, I've been scrambling for a little bit here because Spencer's ruined my whole plan of how this draft build would go from forgetting. And it's really, I mean, it seems disingenuous to say that your draft is ruined when you haven't even picked a player, but it doesn't terms it. Welcome to my life, David. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, look, this is Karma for all the times I've stolen from Spencer. It does happen. And, you know, this is what happens when you get, you know, people who are following the world of golf and getting into the data that people like Spencer and I are going to end up on the same guys. You know, they're just part of the nature of it. I really like the name and play. But what it does kind of ruin is just the structure that you're going to approach this with. You know, it ruins how the rest of that build goes in terms of where the prices come. So guaranteed now that Wacky name and this is the cut, Spencer's got the jinx on him because of this. So that is guaranteed. So I'll give him that. So, look, I'm going to go take someone who's going to be pretty chalky at the top of the board. But he's just won two golf tournaments. He's a defending champion here, really, won the last one here in 2014. He's playing great golf. I'll take Rory McElroy. It does come with some trepidation. Look, I don't think the fact that whilst Scottish Chef was giving birth on Monday, Rory was filing divorce papers on Monday morning. And the whole PJ to a board, like he's been on and then off and then back on again and off again. There's a distraction for him. And you know, that does give me some concern. But look, maybe Rory just comes out and he's just real angry and just ends up winning the tournament by five strikes. I think in terms of like the construction of the golf course, there could be probably no better spot in the world than Valhalla for Rory McElroy. The driving distance is obviously a real asset. He doesn't get two-way with off the tee. His long lines are going to be really, really key. And I do think it's going to play a lot like Quail Hollow where Rory's just gone and won his full tournament here. So it's very, very promising, I think, in terms of those regards. And it's just going to come down to, can he keep those demons quiet between his ears coming down the stretch on Sunday? There you have it. Is Rory back? Listen, he looked great last week. Will that carry over to this week? I like the pick. Rory's obviously one of the best talents in the world, definitely in this field. And it does seem like a good course pick. So I will endorse it. Before I get feedback from you, Spencer, audience, you are on the clock. It looks like there are picks in. We appreciate it. Will lock those in in a minute. You have two those. We need to lock two picks. Spence. We'll love your feedback on Rory. I mean, I doubled down on everything that David just said. And the one thing I'll add to it is add a wet quartz to the mix here. Rory dominates wet and long golf courses more than any golfer in the entire world. So we could have a discussion of what his actual win equity is in a major championship when he hasn't won one in 10 years. But the last time he's won one was at this course. So maybe Rory's rolling right now. I don't know what this is going to end up being. I I mean, thankfully, we're in a spot here where it's seven and a half, eight to one at most of these shops. And I don't have to worry about punching the ticket there because I seem to get caught in this Rory win storm specifically at Augusta more than most people do with it. But there's probably not a course out there that is more ideally set up for a golfer to win a major championship. Like Rory's going to get a handful of more opportunities throughout the rest of his career. I don't know if he's going to get one that's better than this. Wow. All right, bully door. The other thing I'll add, which I didn't mention is he's $1,200 cheaper than chiffler. And I think the disparity in that price compared to say the betting odds where chiffler's like four to one to win the tournament and Rory's seven to one. Like they're pretty close when it comes to betting markets. But the price difference is like that $1,200 will come in useful for me later in the draft. There you have it. I'm getting early confusion on the audience's two picks. So we're going to need someone to step in because I got locks on heck and brooks and brice it. So we can only have two. We need clarification who the two are of those three. As Zach has been the audience's captain, Zach Deppers, over the course of this season, I will leave it to Zach to solidify the lock on the two picks for the audience here. Whatever Zach, it says like looks like everyone's saying hat and then brooks and then brooks it is. All right, hat and brooks. Listen, from the standpoint of the top of the field, it does seem like there's probably like four tier, maybe five. I'll say there's five in my book, at least there's five tier A golfers, brooks being one of them. And you know how brooks plays in the major championship. So getting brooks even at 10, which if you're looking for one of those tier A, it can almost look like a discount. So I like the brooks pick hands of value. I'm okay with that. And I wouldn't expect him to go on the first round here. Someone I will play, but I'm not like super high on this week. We'll start with you here, Spence. Are you on hand or brooks at all? I'll talk a little bit about brooks because I feel like every single major championship that I do shows for or write articles throughout the space. My takeaway is always I am out on brooks kepka, like every single time. And this is not what's going to be this week Joel, but every single time we get into these decision making processes, it's like there's this public perception that's always baked into the price, whether that's the outright totals we're talking about. These moves up the board and price that you want to get like, I know that what we've gotten more recently with it is going to be the high end marks that we can turn to here. But I really like brooks kepka. And that's coming from somebody who never gives that answer. It was first in my model. I looked at major championships as a weight. And that's something that's obviously going to make brooks look great. There was a 10% weight put into that from all the strokes gained data that I pulled. I also look specifically at PGA championships. And there's no world you can't be number one overall in a model when you've won three of the past six. So like those are the most basic answers to talk about there. But for me, when I pulled the data, it was this core specific outlook in this expected strokes gain for Valhalla. That is that secondary answer to the mix here that really carried the weight for me. Because a lot of these PGA championships are very similar to begin with, you need quality long iron play. You need to be good quality total driver. Want to gear that a little bit towards distance. And then you need to get this increase in putting on similar green complexes. Brooks puts together the ideal outcome. And I think for me, even beyond any of those things I just talked about, give them Zoysia fairways and bentgrass greens and go look historically what he's done on those particular surfaces. Brooks is the most elite player in this field in my model when I looked at that. So, you know, he's coming off of a live win. He's getting here with form. Brooks is the type of guy that can stand up to Scotty Scheffler and believe in his head that he's actually going to take him down. And he doesn't have to go in week in and week out. And he hasn't suffered defeat after defeat like a lot of these other players have. I really like Brooks this week. I kind of think Brooks is going to win this golf tournament. I think you made a good point. One thing I want to add about Brooks is Brooks is the type of golfer. It's the opposite feeling you get to Rory in the sense of like if Rory's in the lead on Saturday going into Sunday, you're a little nervous. You're like, is he going to hold on? He's playing well. What's he going to do? If Brooks is in the lead on Saturday going into Sunday, you're like, it's over. Brooks won. No one's going to catch him or change with it. And that's just kind of how the kind of cold bloodedness of Brooks and in these bigger tournaments where it's like, you know, you almost give Brooks a higher score in a major than you would a regular tournament because of, you know, how he approaches these things. So I am with you on that. David, you're on the clock of your second bit, but we love your take on both. Brooks Kepka and Tarohan. Yeah. And to avoid any, any gate, I'll just say that the Fuse Bryson nomination came in before the picks were open. So picks start after I've made my last selection. So I think that may have been where a little bit of the confusion came from the team audience there. So definitely heading and keep going. Check the records. The transcript says you guys got ahead and then Kepka. So when Bryson goes and wins the tournament, I don't want any complaining next week from team audience. Okay. Brooks Kepka, I mean, look, he's the defending champion. We know what he does in major championships. No matter how he's playing, he tends to turn up at these and just be in contention no matter what. And the fact he's coming in now off a victory. He's coming to the place where, you know, he's the defending champion after winning last year at Oak Hill. I expect a strong showing from Kepka. I'd be surprised if he doesn't. Headings are a really interesting one. I think of all those two selections. Headings, the one that I'm a little more like on the fence with. I do wonder if he's got the requisite driving distance to really be successful here. He's never finished better than 10th in the PGA Championship before, just like many times trying. Then at the US Open, he's finished six once and then no better than 21st in all his attempts at the US Open as well. And if we're looking like a really long golf course, they could get firm and fast with rough is going to be pretty thick. I do wonder if maybe Hatton may struggle a bit out there would be my only comment. Yeah, you have it. I love it. I love it. All right. David, you got Rory. How you following this up with your second bag? Yeah. So after Spencer stole Wucking Neiman with the first selection, I've got to go and grab a bit of value to balance out this build with now with Rory McElroy. And I'm going back to a name last week that I that I played and talked about the fact he'd added a lot of driving distance to his game. And he played very well at Kyle Hollow the tournament he's found a little bit of a success in previously. And that's Corey Connors. I mean, Corey Connors has added a ton of distance to his game. A lot of people in this thing, I'm going to stick on that while the iron's hot 13th last week. And most impressive for me about what he did last week and that signature event was not just that the finishing position, but it was how he did it. He was second in the field for strikes game approach. He lost around the green, he lost padding. We know that's what can happen with Corey Connors, but to still get that high end finish with basically no short game just speaks to the fact that Corey Connors is striping the ball at the moment. He's got very good record of the Masters as well. He's tended to putt really well there. We've got Ben Grass Green's here again this week as well. So I think he's a real value at 7,600. And a lot of people are going to avoid him this week because they're going to hit Corey Connors not long off the tee. Well, go and look at what Corey Connors has been doing with driving distance in 2024 because he has absolutely added speed to his swing and distance to his game. I love you. You mentioned him last week. And I agree. I think he's Corey Connors is the type of golfer that kind of goes on these streaks. Were you playing really well? He has like a couple of month period where he gets good results and he kind of streaks off. I think this is a time to play Corey Connors. And he's typically one of those value plays that and stronger field will play out for you. So at the end of the guy at 7,600, he definitely has hopped him upside. So I definitely endorse that pick. Spence, we'd love some feedback from you. Will you be playing Corey Connors at all this week? Yeah, I think he's one of the better values in this field. There were essentially three golfers when and a profile will be deeper than this of what makes somebody a value. This is 10% of the weight of my model. But I do think it's noteworthy to at least include here. So I looked at fairway bunker GIR percentage. And I also looked at rough proximity. There were three players in this field that graded inside of the top 10 for both of those two metrics. Corey Connors was one of those three names. If we circle back to this at the end, I'll name who the other two were if anybody wants to know. But I think Corey Connors is one of the better values in the field right now at 7,600. Boom, there you have it. We are aligned on that. All right. I am up and I am happy how this fell to me. I wanted this to be my second pick and I'm going to get Benian Red Hot Benian, another guy who if you're talking about a driver that is heated up and at a distance, Benian is one of the longest guys on tour right now. So distance is not going to be an issue for him. And he is just red hot. And that is how I like to play guys going into a major third at the Walsh Fargo, T4 at the Byron Nelson, 67th at the heritage. But that really was never a great setup for him. So if you ignore that, you can go one beyond that. He had a T16 at the Masters showed up on a major. So obviously you don't have concerns about him kind of collapsing in the big spot. At this price here, you don't even need him to get you a top five, right? If he gets you in the top 10, that will easily pay off. And you're going to need to find some of these value plays. If you're going to play, Chefler, you kind of got to hit on a couple value plays to make that salary work. So he was my definite first target bear. And the last endorsement of him is I'm seeing about 15, 14% on ownership, which for his price range is a little bit high. But in the grand scheme of things, if it stays at 14%, I'd be happy to play that percentage within here. So I'll pause and we'll go to you first, David. Will you be playing Benny Ann this week? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, look, he's playing at such a high level. His World Golf ranking is 23rd at the moment. Data golf agree is 21st in the world, according to them and their model. And look, he's coming in off a fourth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. That's also played on these sorts of fairways. It's a pretty polarizing grass type. We've talked about it before. It retains a lot more water. So you can get flyers from this. And some players hate that. They hate the nature of these fairways. And sometimes it just tees the ball up really nicely. And they've said it's like it feels like you're playing off a tee every time from the fairway as well. So finished fourth there and then backed it up with the Wells Fargo finishing third. And the notable thing is the putter looks like it's come back, right? And that was the concern with Benny Ann for that little stretch there was he was losing putter with his putter between sort of the Texas Open Masters that the obviously heritage ball putters back. He's driving it long. He's a really good approach player. He's not the most accurate off the tee, but he also doesn't get like two wayward. And I think that's the white recipe this week of you whenever you're driving it as long as someone like Benny Ann is, you are going to lose the football ball a little bit because you're going to have like a 60 yard dispersion off the tee with these guys. And so the fact that he's got no huge miss in this game, I think is a real asset of this course. Spencer mentioned it's heavily bunkered around the fairways where it narrows. That's what like typical of a Nicholas design. He likes to put these bunkers in those landing areas and make you really question what you're doing. So as long as he's keeping that big miss out of game, I could stand very easily finishing in the top 10. Oh, there you have it. I love it. I love it. Spence. You got to started with Neiman. How you following that up? So when I started with Neiman at the top, it was essentially one of these viewpoints for me where Scotty Rory, Capka, and the player I'm going to take right now, I was fine getting any of them that fell back to me. And it doesn't necessarily mean that this would be my first choice of the group. I do think that from an ownership standpoint, there's a little bit of leverage compared to some of these other names that we could talk about. But I'm going to take John Rom at 11,400. It's the same sentiment of what I talked about with Neiman where, you know, look at what his outright price has done. He was an 8 to 1 golfer here at the PGA Championship last year. He's 12 to 1 at the Masters. He provides this disappointing performance. All of a sudden, he drifts to 20 to 1 at a lot of books on Monday. I think you can still find some 20s if you shop around. I just thought he was one of the best outright values on the board before this week started. And you can make the argument from a price tag outlook here. Yeah, he's a little bit more expensive than some of these other names that we want to compare him to. But I think the ownership also creates that leverage that you're looking for on the back end of this. So I really like Rom, that to me, if he wins this tournament, that's going to be what my best weekend's up being here. So I will take John Rom at 11,400. And then for my second pick, I'm going to take somebody who was the darling of the industry last week. And we got a very disappointing performance to where it was a bad day one, great day to a collapse again during the weekend. But, you know, I think that we have gotten enough consistency with this player over the past two years that this is no longer the boomer bus commodity that he once was. He is 12th in my model in expected weighted strokes gain total for Valhalla. He has all the scrambling metrics you would want to see as well as an additional top 20 return and weighted scoring. I'm going to take saw hit the gala here at 8100 if everybody is going to all of a sudden not go back to the well here. Depending on exactly where we're looking, this is fringe 10% ownership one way or the other. I love the fellow pick. I was actually right before you took him thinking about how I was going to rearrange my strategy here to get him in my lineup. To me, the biggest thing is 8100 for hit for the way he's been playing is too low. I mean, he's I have him in that upper tier. He should be in the least in the nine K range for me. So I think he's just one of the better values with plenty of upside in the major championship. So to kind of build out these lobes and get some studs in there, I think he makes a ton of sense. We'll go to you on this one, David, are you on the gala or wrong this week? Yeah, I think Spins made some really good points there and John Rahn is surprisingly low-owned and has been saluted too. The master's performance was disappointing. But how often do we see defending champions come out and play really well in the masters the year after they've won? I mean, when you've won the masters, it comes with all of these obligations. You've got to host the champions dinner. You've got media just every single day hounding you. You've got to do all these interviews. Like it is distracting. It's probably the hardest tournament to defend in the world, not just because of the feel, but because of all the extra stuff you have to do off the course. And so I can really easily forgive John Rahn for that. And you're getting a talented golfer who's going to be low-owned and has got every chance to go out and win this tournament. There is no thought that any aspect of John Rahn's game. So really like their play. I really love the potential for Seth, the gala as well. It feels like he's getting to that stage where the talent is leading up to somewhere where this could be a major championship winner at some point very soon. I do really like that, I think of all the golf courses. This is kind of the right kind of recipe for the gala. Playing the assistance, the approach base really good. And despite the disappointing result last week, I'm pleased to see that almost all that came with around the green and on the pada. When it's a short game, it's something that can be rigged by pretty quickly. And for gala's very much a field player, he really is. And he uses his hands a lot throughout his swing and with his chipping especially. So that can come and go pretty quickly. And I love the upside that you can get with him there at 8100. Boom. There you have it endorsed. All right. I am torn between two guys here with my next pick. And I'm going to start with and hope the other guy comes back to me. I'm going to go with Althorn. Listen, this is not a guy you're going to look at and say, oh, this is the perfect profile for this course. That's not the case. But at 7200, he has outplayed his price tag over the course of the last three, two to three months. He's just been playing spectacular golf. And he shouldn't be this low. So I think it's just too good a value to pass up on to give you some context. Since March 3rd, his results have been 9th, 19th, 11th, 14th, 23rd, and 24th. So his worst result since March 3rd was 24th at the Wells Park last week. And that was really because he lost four strokes putting his ball striking was still good that week. He actually hasn't lost strokes ball striking at least on approach since that March 3rd tournament. He's gained strokes every single week, both around the green and on approach. And he's only lost strokes driving in one of those tournaments that have barely lost a percentage of her stroke. So he is hitting the ball really well. Alex Norin's a vet. He's not going to be scared off by the big moment in the major championship. He's another value guy who I think gives you plenty of top 20 equity and upside to squeezing guys like like Sheffler. So he feels like a safe play. I think you can play him in both tournaments and in cash, but I especially like him in a cash lineup for sure. Let's try you first, Ben. So you won Alex Norin at all this week. Joel, I get caught in the Alex Norin windstorm quite frequently. Like, I was talking the stickspicks about this on our podcast. And there's an argument to be made that the two of us were just a year too early on what Alex Norin has produced this season. I will say that my model didn't necessarily love them this week. There were concerns with some of the weighted total driving, the ball striking metrics in general. But I think it comes down to you don't have a ton of ownership with him. If you trust the form that he has produced, this is a value. If you look into some of the ball striking metrics and you find the red flags there, which is what my model is at least highlighting, there are concerns to be found here. But it's one of those profiles where there's more safety in the profile than there is upside, which is kind of what you were probably talking about a little bit there, Joel. But there's also no, I don't want to say no ownership. I see about six and a half to 7% right now, but that's very relative to everybody who's priced next to him. So I am probably not going to personally play him, but I don't think he is like some massive fade for me within my model either. There you have it. All right, David, we love your take on Alex Norin this week. And then you're on the clock with your third bet. Yeah, look, I think that my concern with Norin comes with the driving distance, whether the course is going to play too long for him. In saying that he's one of the best over 200 yards with his approach, he really does excel in that metric. As you mentioned, the result of the Wells Fargo, if you can finish 24th in that signature event and lose that many strokes putting for a guy who like we know is one of the best putters on the PGA tour is a promising recipe as well. And to add to that, I do see a lot of wind in the forecast, particularly on Saturday, is going to be really howling. Norin's one of the best wind players in the game. And a lot of that comes from his excellent short game. He's able to scramble, he's able to make the parts when he needs to. He's able to keep that momentum going, let alone the fact that his iron play actually performs very, very well in those high winds as well. And kind of segues into my pick where I'm going to go and get some value actually down at $6,000. One of the best wind players in the game just continually shows up at tournaments where it's extremely windy, tons of driving distance in an excellent exit and putter. And that's Lucas Herbert. He's going to be a lot of, he's going to be pretty forgotten because he's on the lift to it. Not many people are going to be watching him, but he's amazing wind player as putters going to keep him in the game. The Southern Hills PGA chat. I'm not sure if I'm frozen or David is. David is frozen. It is not you this time at all. All right. Well, we got the pick it. Unfortunately, we have a frozen David. While we wait for him to get back on spent, are you on Lucas Herbert obviously? I mean, I think David was was bringing up an interesting point when it comes to a lot of these live golfers have seen too far of a shift, whether it's the price tag we're looking at or the ownership that's they're going to be used for. So Herbert brings that distance plus putting sort of a return here that at least gives them a chance at this course. I don't have a take one way or another on this. I probably lean towards no, but I think at $6,000 there's upside to at least be found in that profile. All right. I am I'm going to try and get our draft board back up while we wait for David, because obviously this isn't the look we're going for on the draft cast tonight, but I don't have it. So hold on. Hold on. I can get it in a second. While I pull this up spent, remind the audience that they have two. So they are on the clock. We will get those two in. We need them locked and I would love to get your take on some of their nominations as they come in. Yeah. And I guess now that we're sitting here and the draft has also just been thrown upside down. I will mention the two names. I mean, there's no point to allude to there being three names that fit inside the top 10 of those things and then not end up saying it. I'll probably end up forgetting at the end of the day. I see David is back now, but Thor Bjorn, Ollison and Justin Thomas were the other two that fit inside the top 10 from the proximity from the rough and from bunker. So for whatever that's worth for everybody out there, there you go. I love it. Audience, first pick is at least in in Keith Mitchell, which I will definitely endorse. I was considering getting him into my life with one of my next picks. He's been playing well. He's been really good with the driver. He's got the distance in form under 7k. A lot of luck about Keith Mitchell. I think he's a really savvy pick. David, welcome back. Will you be playing Keith Mitchell all this week? Yeah, sorry guys. I mean, look, it was bound to happen at some point here in Manila that the internet would completely cut out on me and leave me mid-ramble on Lucas Herbert. But I just keep talking for quite some time because you guys were live for me. And I produced some brilliant content while you guys weren't listening. So I'm sorry you all missed out on that, but my love Lucas here, but at this golf course, and we saw that at Southern Hills when he finished their team at the PGA Championship, we tipped him up at like 201, 250 to 1 that week. And he played very, very well and in an extremely windy PGA Championship. So I like him with the wind and the forecast. And I love what Keith Mitchell's been doing off the tee. His performance with driver is just really going to be a very, very good asset in Kentucky. Obviously not too far from his alamata in Georgia as well. So that's obviously a positive forum as well. And yeah, the question with Keith Mitchell was, can he show up at a major championship? Because it's not something that we've seen him do all that often. So I do like that selection. And then it looks like, according to Zach, we've got I can Smith as well with team audience. Can Smith lock it in? You know, can Smith's an interesting one. He's under 10k. But there's some other guys up there that I like a lot. Can Smith does tend to play well in these bigger tournaments and then rise to the occasion. So I do think he could be a sneakier play up there up top. I'm going to go ahead and not endorse the pick. I'm probably not going to be playing much Cam Smith this week. But I can understand the audience direction there. We'll start with you here. Spent, are you on Mitchell or Smith? I think Mitchell is one of the better values in this tournament. It's an incorrect price tag for a player that doesn't necessarily have the major championship pedigree to pull from. Cameron Smith, there's one other goal for that would fit into this mix too. But if you look at this $9,000 in uprange, Cameron Smith is essentially the one name for me and specifically from a statistical outlook here. I don't love him this week. He has a lack of distance off the tee. He also mixes that with a lack of accuracy. That's not necessarily the blueprint that I'm looking for for Valhalla. So there's no ownership around him. So you're going to at least get some sort of leverage if you're correct with that. But I would make an argument that there are multiple names directly or in the vicinity of him, beneath him, that would carry similar ownership and much more upside with their skill sets. There you have it. I think we are aligned there. David would love your take on Cam Smith and then you're on the clock with your fourth pick. I'll just echo what's been said, I think. I do have concerns off the tee with Cam Smith, but the flip side of that and this is where your contest selection really makes a difference. Cam Smith showing up at a major is not unsurprising. So if you're getting a Cameron Smith who's like 7% owned, which is kind of what I'm seeing at the moment, because as careful season in the chat, I don't love him at the price. Well, everybody else is also going to look at him and say, I don't love him at the price. So if you can get that leverage as a result of that and those last GPPs and he comes out and finishes second, for example, well, suddenly you've got something on the rest of the field that nobody else has. It can be the difference maker and those milli maker type contests if you can get it right. Sometimes it just has to be that you get a bit uncomfortable and you're taking someone who has obvious major championship pedigree and the one thing I'd say for Smith as well, when he won the open championship, obviously, St Andrew's extremely exposed, lots of wind, well, we are going to see lots of wind in the forecast here as well. So that may be a benefit for him if I was looking at positives. There you have it. All right, you got average shower remaining about 8100 per pick. Who are you looking at with your fourth pick? Yeah, I've been doing the calculations in the background and just want to remind spins that he absolutely ruined my draft this week by taking Neiman with the first pick because it's going to work out that I would have exactly the right amount for Neiman if all goes to plan. So I'm going to take Sam Burns this week at 8500. It really feels for Sam Burns that the major championship is just the one thing that's been missing in his resume and he's got tons of distance off the tee. I don't think people realize quite how long he is and a lot of that comes from his ability to generate a really high ball speed. So that's not just coming with the driver. It's coming with his irons as well, which I think is a real asset for him. On a course that we know that's going to play long, his strongest approach metrics come from over 150 to 200 and 200 plus yards. That's going to be really key this week. I was 20th at the PGA championship back in 2022, so he has performed better in the PGA championship than in the other majors. And 13th last week at Quail Holofel was really promising on a golf course that I think is going to play quite similar. So for me, he's really good value at 8500 and Ike's to speak that Sam Burns could surprise a few and somehow rock up in the top five by the end of the week. So I think he's a really good value at that number. Interesting. I'll be on Sam Burns was not on my radar this week, but I typically like Sam Burns and at 8500, David's on him. I'm intrigued. So I think it's interesting. Spence, how about you? Will you be on Sam Burns in all this week? See, this is where I think there's interesting discussions to be had because at least according to my model here, Sam Burns is quote on quote overpriced. Like that's maybe the one different outlook that I would have than David there. But there is no ownership with him. There's a positive trajectory for upside in my model. This is more of where I am trying. Like, if I'm going to throw a random dart at this board, I would so much rather do it with Sam Burns than a Cameron Smith. Like there is real upside in the profile of Sam Burns. That makes sense. And especially because with Sam Burns, you can do more right with Kim Smith. You're kind of have to have Kim Smith be one of your top two guys with Burns. He could be three. You know, you can be a more balanced approach. So it's definitely a lineup building strategy involved there for sure. All right. All right. I am on the clock here and I am going to take another guy who is kind of the same man as Norin and that he's in great form. On paper, he's not going to be a great course fit. He's not a longest hitter, but I'm going to play the form. I'm going to play the way he's playing. I'm going to take Seabookit. Seabook him has been fantastic over the last few tournaments that he's teeted up in. His ball striking numbers are especially impressive, which is what's turned me on to see Wu and why I'm taking him here. But like I said, he's not going to wow you with his driving distance. He's not even going to have the best proximity for a course or good for his not the longest iron player. And you know, so not the best putter. So I'm giving you a lot of reasons not to play Seabooki. But I will say his actual ball striking approach play, his around the green play, over the last three months have been spectacular. Absolutely spectacular. He's gaining strokes in every tournament he's played in around the green as well as ball striking. And a lot of them, not just one stroke. I mean, in his last two tournaments, he's gained five and a half strokes ball shaking each. In those last three outings, he's gotten three top 20s, a 30 to the master, the top 20 to use to open a top 10 at the players. He's just playing great golf. If he can make some put somehow some way this week, I think you get another top 20 result from Seaboo. So under another guy under 8k, I like Seaboo Kim this week. Let's go to you David. Will you be playing Seaboo at all? Yeah, well, I mean, look, you already listed all the reasons not to pick Seaboo when you do Seaboo. So I can't really go with that round. Look, I do have concerns about the distance, but I would say he is really strong with over 200 yards. I mean, he's strong throughout the bag, but I mean, there's only a handful of names that actually better than Seaboo on the tour from Wong Lions. And look, if you're getting a player with just like a means ability to ball strike the hell out of it, well, PGA championships are typically won by players who find greens. Like, and a lot of it is about actually just finding the center of the green, putting it in play and then trying to make a part. And if not your two part, you make a part and you move on. Even power is going to be a really good score this week at Valhalla. Like, if you pay even power each week, you'll, each round, sorry, you will finish in the top 20 this week. I can guarantee that. So his ability to find greens, I think is going to be a real asset. And if you're getting a discount in terms of pricing compared to, I mean, put it this way, data golf heaven ranked nearly 30 points higher than his World Golf rankings. World Golf rankings 41st, data golf ranking is the 17th best player in the world of the moment. You're getting him down in the 7700 range at 10% ownership for someone who is just striping it at the moment. So I find that really interesting. I love it. There you have it. Spence. You got two here would love your take on Seaboo. And then where you going with your next two bags? Really the only true negative I see with Seaboo, the PGA Championship results leave a lot to be desired. I do think he's very popular because of the recent form that we've gotten like over 10% for the volatility that he's bringing when you can directly compare him to other names in this mix. I don't really have a take outside of the ownership. I tend to think he's actually a pretty decent fit for this course despite all the PGA Championship results and everything that Joel laid out from top to bottom of why Seaboo is the worst player in this tournament. But I think he's fine. He's a very neutral value that has great form leading into the week. For my pick, I'm trying to, I guess at this point, compete with what the audience is doing of who can put together more live golfers inside of their build. And I'm going to take Dustin Johnson at $8,000 here. There's a couple things about this play. So first I understand we are asking a lot for him to be competing in major championships. He's made the move to live. He is a golfer that needs those reps on the PGA Tour much more than most players. He can go a little bit, let's just say wayward with his antics and stuff. And it's nice to have him out playing golf because that's usually the best version that we've gotten from him. But when I have run numbers and I have said this for almost every single major championship over the past two years here, he's usually the biggest Fade candidate that I have in my sheet. And I try to find him in matchups. I try to figure out a way to take him on. The two times he was not one of the largest Fade candidates. 2022 Open Championship, 2023 US Open. Those were two events where he finished inside the top 10. So I'm going to hope that my numbers end up being correct here. These are numbers that I am pulling that could be a little bit flawed and skewed because we don't get weekend and week out data from him from him now being on live. But there is a first place great in my model for off the tee production at long courses with thick rough. You can make an argument of what that actually means when he is not adding to that every single week, like a lot of these other players. And it could be some of this data that is just weak at this point. But I thought Dustin was too cheap for the upside that he does possess. I know what I'm signing up for from the recent results that we've gotten. But I think Dustin at his best is still better than this $8,000 price tag. So I'm going to roll the dice there and live with whatever the results end up being. And then I'm going to have to now save some salary here with making that pick. And I'm going to take Kurt Kitty Yama at 6500. Kitty Yama's ability with some of this weighted proximity and the distance that he brings is very, very enticing for a $6,500 golfer. There's a handful of names and Keith Mitchell would be one of them. Maybe that my model thinks has upside, which maybe hasn't necessarily produced the upside in some of these events. Kitty Yama is the one B to that version there where Kitty Yama is 15th in my model in weighted proximity. You look at the, I've talked a lot this week about fairway bunkers and rough proximity. He's 11th in my model there. He has the distance that places him inside the top 25 of my sheet. There's a lot of these ball striking metrics that really like him for this tournament. And there's going to be negative traits that you can find from anybody in this $6,000 or less section. But the upside marks that he actually can bring to the table give you this hidden top 10 equity. And I mean, look, he came forth last year at the PGA Championship. I don't think it's inconceivable that he produces something very similar again. So I like the upside that Kitty Yama has here and I see six and a half percent ownership. I think that that's still perfectly fine. I agree. Kitty Yama is now a stolen pick from me as he was one of my last picks I was going to put in there. And I grew to your reasoning behind DJ. He's more talented than the price tag. Maybe not, we don't know what the form is, maybe not playing at his top DJ form, but he's not 9K and he's not 9500. So you know what upside you get from DJ. And at 8K, I definitely think he's worth a shot. And upside, I like the way your lineup is coming together there. Go to you, David, are you one Dustin Johnson or Kitty Yama this week? I mentioned before I took the burns pick how Spencer stolen wouldn't Neiman and ruined the end of the draft for me as a result. And the route I would have wanted to go, which I was going to be $100 short from, would have been to go Kitty Yama and then Wyndham Clark, for example, would have been $100 outside it and Neiman would have been the perfect fit. Zach mentions the fact that death taxes and David could be complaining about a pet being stolen is the regular recipe, which is true. But that is how I put the jinx on golfers, okay? As I comment about this pick being stolen multiple times, how much I love him, then they'll miss the cut, okay? So that's all I'm just making sure that I'm putting all the hecks on Spencer's stealing of Wyndham Neiman, the first pick there. So I love Kurt Kitty Yama, that's where I would have gone. I think his ball striking numbers are really promising. If we think that this course is going to play really long, you need to be straight off the tee, you need to be ball striking it, and then you can kind of make your way around the greens. Well Bay Hill's a really good example of that, the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We also saw what Kurt Kitty Yama did at that tournament, defeating a really high-end field as a triple figure outsider. We were on him that week, and he played incredibly well. And when he's in the mix, he's the kind of guy who tends to stay there. And so I really like the metal that you get from Kurt Kitty Yama. It's like stroke-scained mental fortitude, which isn't something that you can measure. Zander Laksa, but Kurt Kitty Yama seems to have it no matter the names around him. There you have it. I love it. All right, I'm back on the clock. I have three guys I am thinking about, and I have to kind of settle on one, and I'm going to go with the one that going into Spencer's pick was the last, and now I think I'm going to take him. So I'm all over the place, and I'm being honest. But I'm going to stick with strep, strep, strep, streka. Jesus, I can't say the same, strep, streka. You know, the reason being, he's really stepped up the last three tournaments. He's been playing well. He's got two top 10s. His ball striking, his driving has been there. It's great putting. Not great around the grade. I'm thinking this could be a week where that might just be neutral. It's not, you know, we talked about the scrambling and all that, but if he has one of those great weeks, ball striking, and he kind of avoids when the trouble is he's gotten himself into around the greens. The way his putter is looked at his ball striking, I think there's a lot of upside with him, and that's what I'm going for. So, it's a riskier pick, but I think step started to make sense. And I think it's a good fit for his game, especially right now while he's playing really well. So I'll start with you, Speds. Are you a long step-strucker all this week? If you dive into some of the Zoysia grass fairways, Strahka is a really large climber in my model specifically in that area. The weighted proximity numbers also tend to like him for the most part. I guess my one concern, if there's something to talk about it, it's a very similar answer to what I mentioned with Seawoo Kim. It's just we have two 10% owned 7K golfers that have a lot of volatility to their potential production, like my guess would be one of Strahka or Seawoo massively ends up disappointing people that take him. I don't know if I love the two of them together for that reason, but some of that Zoysia grass stuff, Joel, is definitely worth looking into because there is real upside in the profile depending on how you run the data here. Well, there you have it. The Zoysia grass, Strahka likes it. I think it's a fact, there's another reason to maybe creep that way in making your decision. David, you're on the clock here with your fifth pick and we love your take on Strahka this week as well. Yeah, I probably prefer the Strahka play to Seawoo. I know that Strahka lacks off the tee in terms of driving distance a little bit, but he can just absolutely go out and get absolutely hot, right? We've all seen it. The upside's there. I mean, if you told me there was a golfer at 7,500 who in his recent majors has gone seventh missed cut second, 16th at the Masters this year, and then he's coming in off four consecutive top 16, starting at the Masters, then fifth at the RBC heritage signature event, he was the 11th at Zurich Classic and then eighth at the Wells Fargo, another signature event. If you were telling me that you could get a golfer at 7,500 with those kind of credentials, I'd be jumping all over it. And it does seem like the public are clicking onto that. That's why you're getting kind of that 10 to 11% ownership, which in 156 man field is going to be pretty high. But of the two, I'd probably go Strahka over Seawoo for me. And it's based on the history that he's kind of putting together because anyone else who's coming in here with that kind of history, we'd be like, oh, yeah, like it looks like it's trending towards the victory. Yeah, it's a good point. It's a really good point. Actually, I was actually surprised even though, yes, for his positioning and price, his ownership was high. I actually thought it would have been higher at this point. So I was okay with taking that eating that ownership this week. All right, David, you got about 8K per pick left. Who are you going for here? Yeah, look, and as I mentioned, I would have loved to have rounded this out with like a anemone kitty armor. I think would have been a really nice construction with the build that I've had so far and would have given me a ton of upside across the board, even down to Lucas here. But I think it's got the ability to go and surprise some people. So obviously, I can't do that because Spencer stolen both of them. So I'm going to need to go and get a little bit different here. And actually, I'm going to take Matt Fitzpatrick. I think that Matt Fitzpatrick has been playing a lot better golf than people giving him credit for. We all know that he's added the driving distance. But I think the fact that we're looking like a wet golf course, there's more rain in the forecast, there's thunderstorms, there's wind. He's one of the best mothers in the game. His ability to play in wet conditions is really an asset for him. He is going to like a little bit off the tea compared to others, even though he has added their driving distance, which I accept. But he's playing really well in the majors as well and finished fifth at Southern Hills. So if we're looking at like a windy PGA championship, he played really well in that event. And that wasn't a short golf course either, fifth of the players championship earlier this year is 22nd the Masters as well. So Matt Fitzpatrick has got heaps of upside and obviously won the US Open a really long golf course as well. So I think that he's got the ability to come out and surprise a few people. And I'm getting like no ownership of Fitzpatrick at the moment. So I think that's a great leverage for him as well. I love it. I love it. Audience, you are on the clock. I see some nominations in. You need to. So get your final two in. I think there's an interesting narrative going on here before I pass it to Spencer has taken on Fitzpatrick and that narrative is me and Spencer have one player left and we have the exact same budget. So we're very good chance we'll be fighting over a similar player. And David's budget isn't too much ahead of our. So we could all be looking at the same players with our last picks here. Audience, you guys have the ability with a little bit more money than but not much. They try and just completely mess our drafts up. Take the guys that we might want and then leave us scrambling. So there is some strategy here from Team Audience on how they wrap up these final two picks whether they want to go for what's best for their team. If they want to cause chaos in the draft, you can go either way while we wait for those two picks to be finalized. Spence, will you be playing Metric Patrick at all this week? Yeah, I think he's a good leverage play. There's essentially five or six names in this $8,000 and up section. It would be and this is like where the best leverage in my model would sit. It's Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson, Matthew Fitz Patrick, Patrick Cantlay, Victor Havelin. Those are the names that have the best leverage. If you're trying to throw some darts down here of like to be a little bit different, I like Fitzpatrick's added distance that he brings to the mix. I think he's a nice interesting fit into a lineup. If I'm directly comparing him and Jordan's speed, there's similar ownership there. I would rather play Fitzpatrick and the upside he possesses in my model. So I like the pick from David. I think it's a nice way to get unique in a lineup. I would agree with that take as well. All right, it looks like the two audience picks are in. I'm going on Zach Jeffers as my sort of truth. And if so, the first pick is Yeager Bob, Steven Yeager, and the second pick is Bermeister. I actually think they're both really strong picks. I ended this pick here at the end of the draft. Two value plays that are both in my player pool. We'll start with you, Spence. Are you on either Dean Bermeister or Steven Yeager? Yes to Yeager, but that's a weekly answer that I could give that you could just roll over from show to show. I'll say no to Bermeister because of ownership. Fair enough, fair enough. David, as the world tour truther and expert, especially interested in your take on Dean Bermeister, we'd love to know if you're playing Yeager and then you're on the clock with your aspect. I mean, first thing I want to shout out Zach for just mentioning the fact that I obviously have the right amount of salary to take that selection. Thank you, Zach. I appreciate everything that the team audience does. You guys are a great audience. The second question is whether you guys are saying Bermeister because of Yeagermeister? Like, is it the fact that they took Steven Yeager and then suddenly it's Dean Bermeister? Because I have it as Bermeister. But, you know, that's not the end or the end. We can call him Bermeister with Yeagermeister. I'll call him Dean. Dean, Dean Bermeister, I'm going to stick with Bermeister. Yeagermeister, you know, has got kind of a nice ring to it. So, yeah, I like Dean here. Look, I think that we saw him show up at the Open Championship, so he has continued in the majors. Most notably, he won at Derral. I think Derral's a really good comp for Verhalah, really long golf course. He's got tons of driving distance. He's very, very talented, very good putter as well. And so, I do think he's got the ability to go and perform here. So, I do like the pick. I don't know if our classes are still because I was kind of in between two players. And I can mention who I'm going to take straight off the back of this, if you like. It's you. Yeah. So, the reason why I was going to go with Chris Kirk over Dean Bermeister was the ownership difference, really. Like, Bermeister is like 11 and a half percent owned. That's a ton of risk for me for that amount of ownership at 7,000. Chris Kirk, you're getting like no ownership on. And like, it's surprising for me, really, because of the way he's been playing. It's been absolutely fantastic. He hasn't finished worse than 44th since beginning in March. A lot of that has been in signature events in majors. I mean, he was 16th at the Masters. He was 10th at the RBC Heritage. He's finished fifth at the PGA Championship in Southern Hills. So, if you're looking for like a windy PGA Championship, that's kind of my go to another really long golf course. So, despite the fact that it might look like he likes a little bit off the tee in terms of distance, he has shown up those spots before. And Chris Kirk's had a great year, obviously, kept off with winning this entry to start the season with a long shot victor. But I think that he's got tons of upside. And the fact that I can get him like at the moment, if I check my ownership numbers, I'm getting like three and a half percent versus 11 and a half for Bermeister. I'll take that ownership discount every single day for a golfer who's playing very well in some of the PGA to his best tournaments. I like Bermeister. I played him last week. Wasn't the best result, but he's the type of guy that can show up in a big tournament. He can compete. He's consistent. I think it's a good sneaky plan. I think for the reasons you said, I think he does possess that upside and at the sneaky lower ownership. I think he makes a lot of sense, especially for big GPPs. Spence, we love your tape. Will you be playing Chris Kirk? I thought at the Masters, he was one of the better values on the board. I think when you look at three and a half percent ownership here, I think he's one of the best values on the board and you mix that in with the leverage that gets created. He's probably one of the best plays in the $6,000 section to consider. Oh, I love it. I love it. And when Spence says one of the best, he means the second, because I'm about to take the best here with my last pick. And that is friend of the show, but not actually, but I'm going to say it, though, because we are always drafting our good friend, Christiane Bizetenau. Now, I have a little bit of a theme going with my squad in that I'm not taking all the guys that are long hitters and fit the perfect profile of this course. I think a lot of guys that on paper, you would look at and say these aren't like the typical course fit guys, you would want to take here, especially highlighting Norin, Siwu, and Sibes. But I'm playing form. And again, if I can get three really good golfers that are maybe a little bit under owned, because they don't have the perfect course profile, I'm okay with that. And I think they can still go out there and have really strong results because of the way they're playing in their price tag. So Christiane Bizetenau is a similar profile in that. His form over the last few months has been very good. He's making putts. He's not going to be along the center. But the ball striking is there. I think he needs to get another. I think we do get another good result from him this week. I love your take, David, will you be playing Sibes in all this week? I won't be because of the driving distance concerns. But look, I mean, this is one thing we talk about this often on stroke, right? Like, we kind of know what the golf course is going to play like. We've done our analysis. We've seen the distance. But so is everyone else. And if we all end up playing the exact same players because of the course fit, or suppose it course fit, well, that's when you get these like leverage opportunities. And I think that's where you can mix in some of these guys, like see we will set poor Bizetenau from Lauren, because some of them are going to show up in the top 10, because they're going to absolutely strike the born approach, despite the fact that they like off the tee. And they can putt lights out and they can get really hot. So in terms of like getting some leverage with upside, that kind of is a really great way to approach it. So I'm not sure that I'll play all four of them in the same lineup. I think there's a really aggressive strategy. But I think that you can mix in a few of these names, because if you just take like Patrick Rogers, Kitty Yana, Windham Clark, Benie Yarn, you take all of these long drivers, you are going to be duped. Like there are going to be other people out there who are going to play that exact same lineup. And you need to find some places get different, which I think that you've done well here. Boom, there you have it. I love it. Spence, I'm hoping I stole your pick. I hope you were looking at them. But if not, I love your take on sea bags and where you go in here with your aspect. I think there's a lot of options to potentially consider down in, you know, the 6600 or less range. Like, I worry about the distance ever so slightly, but for your particular build Joel, I would make an argument that this makes it very unique and kind of gets away from some of the chalk that you had in other areas. And all of a sudden that lineup becomes very easy to insert into anything, because I don't think people are going to play Christian Bizetan out this week. I have no problems with him. I think Bizetan out was in play for me. I would make an argument that you could consider Dietri in this particular situation. My model likes Taylor Pendreth and everything that we've seen recently. There's going to be ownership that comes with him. I think to get a little bit different with my build and I can get half the ownership give or take on a player that is a very similar profile with the way that I built my model this week. I'm going to take Cameron Davis at 6600. We saw him spike last year at this tournament coming in fourth place. You look at some of the recent trending data, leaves a little bit to be desired. But even with that answer coming into play, like date this to the AT&T Pebble Beach. Everything is pretty much landing in the top 40 for the most part, even with this struggling statistical form that you want to look at. Like a lot of made cuts, a lot of consistency in that profile. And then all of a sudden you add this ability for him to use his length off the tee. And some of the ball striking metrics that I do have for him. So if you want to consider Tom Hoggi, I think he makes some sense here also. But I'm kind of trying to shoot for a little bit more upside than that Hoggi profile. And Cameron Davis possesses more of that for me here. If I have the mindset that I'm entering this into a large field contest and trying to figure out if I can hit something for a large amount of money. Oh, there you have it. The picks are in. This was a great draft. I think it is the way you're going to have to get different. Everyone's going to play a few guys at the top. The way you're going to have to win this draft is hitting on a few value plays. I think we have a lot of big ones in this draft that you can consider. Davis was one of the guys I was considering here with my last pick as well. We've seen him rise up in a lot of these types of tournaments and occasions at 6600. He certainly possesses the upside. David, before we wrap up the draft here, we'll be playing Cameron Davis at all this week. Yeah, look, I've been spending some time showing up with the majors. He really has played very well at Oak Hill, finished top five of the year and then a really good performance at the Masters as well, finishing 12. He's got plenty of distance. That's obviously known about Cam Davis, but he does tend to be a player who gets hot and then follows up with that in subsequent tournaments. I do think he's a Sammie player and he's an option for me at 6600 for sure. There you have it. All right, we've been with you for a while tonight, but we're not done yet. Before we let you go, do me a favor. Hit the like button. Give us a follow. It goes a long way. We appreciate you. We know this show is all the audience. We don't go anywhere without you guys, so all of your effort in drafting with us and following along is greatly appreciated, and we're hoping we all make a lot of money in draft Kings and taking these golfers this weekend, which would be a really fun tournament. Before we get you out of here tonight, if you're not already subscribed to Windilly, sign up. You're going to get our picks, but not only that, after the show, we post updates where you'll get Steven's ownership article, which is the best in the business. It'll tell you the projected ownership of every golfer. You'll definitely want, especially if you're playing with some of these million makers this weekend. We'll post weather updates. If anything changes around the weather, if we're seeing any edges, you'll get access to that information, and we post our outright picks. You'll see if there's any outright best you want to make. Sign up for Windilly. Get in the Discord chat. Get all that extra information for tonight. We are going to leave you with our first round leaders. So we love doing the first round leader plays. We will start with you, David. I'd love to know who you're looking at in the first round leader market. Yeah, look. Great shout out for Windilly there. There's a promo link in the description. It's got all the details you need about what we do, what we're all about. It's got exclusive promo in there, but even just go ahead and see what we're about and see our track record and everything that you get with the promotion. It's worth having a read regardless of whether you sign up or not. There's some free trials in there as well, so you can give it a go and see what we're all about there. So for first round leaders, it's always a riskier to PGA championship or any major for that matter to take on the top of the board, because when you've got this many class players in a field, you kind of figure that at least one of them is going to come out and shoot like eight under or something and really take it to the rest of the field. So I'm going to go the opposite way. I'm going to take a bunch of value plays this week. I've actually got six of them because of that, but none of them are less than 66 to one. And the hope in that is that we get one guy who comes out here really spikes. And a few of the names that I'm going to mention have been being picked on the show as well. So starting off at the 66 to one mark, I've got BDR ends hit the gala. I think I've both got the absolute upside to come out and lead after one round. Same step striker. We know what he can do in one round of golf. You can get him an 80 to one deep vermester. You get it 90 to one Kukkadiyama at 100 to one. And then somebody wasn't on the show, but had really good performance last week. Tons of driving distance. One of the best drivers actually on the PGA tour if you go and dive into a statistics is Eric Van Broyen, which you can get at 125 to one, which seems very generous for a player who's performed well at other long golf courses, most notably when winning on the PGA tour at the end of last year. Oh, I love it. I love it. Spence. Looking to you. Who do you like in the first round leader market? So I'm going to update this in the wind daily portion of the website that'll be up tonight and probably out tomorrow there. I'm going to give you a different answer, Joel's. And I want to first touch on what Jeff asked of what's your cutoff for driving distance on this course. The way that I built my model incorporates a lot of total driving in general. I don't know if there's I think it depends on what we're exactly talking about here. If we're looking for wind equity, the cutoff would shrink down a little bit. If we're looking for safety in place like that, I think there's a lot of golfers that don't have driving distance that are going to make a lot of sense this week. So total driving for me would probably be more of the outlook. And that's going to incorporate a little bit more driving distance than anything. But it also includes courses that have thick rough and how do you perform off the T there and courses that are along with thick rough? How do you perform off the T there? And that kind of is how I merged my model. For the play that I'm going to give here, Joel, and I normally give head to head wagers and they move very quickly. So I'm a little disgruntled that this number has not moved in. This is more juice on a play than I normally would get to to begin with here. But there is a number over app bet rivers. It's still currently there right now. It's minus 129. That's as much juices you'll ever see me lay on a bet. I like Shane Lowry this week. Minus 129 over Tom Kim. Tom Kim was the single biggest fade candidate that I had on the board. You can tune into different shows and hear me talk a little bit more in depth about that. But usually on a Tuesday, that number is still not around and it's already left the station. The price is still there for anybody who wants to grab that. And hopefully we can finally move it. There you have it. Fade Tom Kim this week betting against them. 129 on Shane Lowry. I like it. I have four first round leader plays for us this week. I will start with the longest odds. I'm going to go with Taylor Gucci. I was not even feeling he might show up this week on a hot round and kind of talk some smack about him being involved in the tournament. I don't think he holds on, but I think he comes out strong. So it's 75 to 1. I like the narrative around Taylor Gucci. And then I'm going to head up with some shorter odds. I really like Bryson DeChambeau. He wasn't mentioned on our show, but I think he came out hot at the Masters. I think he can come out hot again this week. And obviously, you know, he's going to have the length of 35 to 1. I also have my eyes on where did I put it? Oh, your first round leader, listen, don't be surprised. He was mentioned on the show, but he wasn't drafted. You know, we've seen Wyndham Clark come out hot time and time again, these majors and start. I have a really good start. I think Wyndham Clark could have a really good start this week as well at 45 to 1. And I'm going to leave you with, you know, it's funny, but we kind of gave this strategy last week and it almost paid off. It didn't pay off, but it was close. It's got to be shuffler. You know, he's what, four to one to win the tournament. It's a really small asset that sent him a bet. But to get him as a first round leader, you get 14 to 1 odds. You know, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he comes down and he's your first round leader. It seems like the better way to bet Scotty at 14 to 1. So that will be my four plays this week. I get major championship. She's in the fun season. I'm super excited for this week to tee off. But don't forget to sign up for one daily, get in the discord, especially this week. There are some weather updates you're going to want to follow as there can be some wind and some conditions that you're going to want to be on top of before locking in any bets or lineup. So make sure you sign up. You'll definitely get a return on your investment within a week or two because some of our plays have been very hot. We'll post these lineups on Twitter. Let us know which one you think is going to win. The winning lineup, we will crown next week. We'll crown the champion and we'll get to talk smack and we'll do it again. Then did I forget anything? So two things before we get out of here and we'll let everybody go in one second. I was a little surprised to see Bryson de Shambo not drafted just with the amount of ownership that's out in the industry right now. Like that's the one name that's around 20% plus that the four of us did not decide to take. So interesting outcome there. I also want to touch on what Zach said of State of the Union here on Jason Day. Did you guys see that picture of day walking and how jacked his legs were? This guy is built to win a major champion. He's got those big malbon pants right? So like how do we know what's under there? I mean Malbon had no I'll post the picture but Malbon has to create these MC hammer like pants because I mean it's it's too sexual at this point. If you just have his legs sticking out the way that they are like this guy is built like no other. So I've been trying to get Malbon to sponsor any show I'm doing. I'd love for them to sponsor this show. I'll rock the MC hammer pants. I'll wear the wild vest that he has like I'll I'll put on anything. I don't really care if they want to sponsor this show but I will say this about Jason Day if nothing else he's unique and different and for enough money maybe it's the same answer that I'm giving that he'll put on things that are unique and different and I don't know how much say he actually has on what he's wearing but it's nice to see somebody that doesn't look like everybody else out there. It's a different attire. He's unique and different in that regard and I'm never going to nail Jason Day in general but I'm not going to nail him for sticking out and and being a unique commodity on the tour. We know well actually actually I will say this actually assumed you wouldn't nail Jason Day but I knew that I could have bet so much money on that Joel. Oh that's a wrap. I had fun tonight guys follow along. Let us know who you think is going to win. We are going to talk smack next week and crown a champion. Good luck. See you next week. Oh and what I forget? Sports sports. This is the story of the one as head of maintenance at a concert hall he knows the show must always go on. That's why he works behind the scenes ensuring every light is working the HVAC is humming and his facility shines. With Granger supplies and solutions for every challenge he faces plus 24/7 customer support his venue never misses a beat. Call quickgranger.com or just.buy. Granger for the ones who get it done. You know when you're listening to a true crime story that has an unbelievable plot twist that makes you stop in your tracks that's what our podcast People Are The Worst brings you with each episode. I'm Rachel and I'm Rebecca we're identical twins who love true crime cases that make you say didn't see that coming and we hate that people responsible for them. Listen to People Are The Worst Now on Apple Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
It's Major Championship week baby! Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into the PGA Championship!
