What's on the horizon for financial markets? At PJIM, it's a question that over 1,400 investment professionals relentlessly research in pursuit of your long-term goals. Specialised across asset classes, but united in collaboration, our teams provide global and local expertise. Our investments shape tomorrow, today. Pursue your tomorrow with PJIM, a leading global asset manager. Market moving insight and analysis join Jim Kramer. David Faber and me, Carl Cantonea on the opening bell hour of CNBC Squawk on the street. Good Wednesday morning, welcome to Squawk on the street. I'm Carl Cantonea with Jim Kramer at Post-9 of the New York Stock Exchange. David Faber's on assignment. As you see, all-time highs here, but futures are a bit cautious ahead of the big event tonight and that is NVIDIA earnings, meantime, retail earnings are a bit mixed. Target largely fails to impress oil now down 2% for the week. A roadmap is going to begin with Target's big miss, consumers buying fewer groceries, and home goods, shares are down sharply pre-market. NVIDIA shares are coming off a record close and on track for some gains at the open. Expectations are high though for the chip maker's results after the bell. And watch Apple, the midst of a seven-day wind streak with a gain of nearly 13% so far this month. Let's begin though with Target down sharply on this quarterly earnings miss and a sales decline. The retailer did say customers cut their spending on discretionary and grocery. Company did reaffirm full-year guidance. Jim made guided comps down three to five and came in three-seven. Yeah, I mean, when you talk to Brian, he'll be insistent that this wasn't anything that you should find unexpected. The thing that I'm struggling with is he talks about the consumer, in temperature, Walmart didn't. Walmart told about a consumer that's in good shape and price rollbacks. We didn't get price rollbacks from Target till this week. So I'm beginning to wonder whether Target is out of position versus Walmart, where Walmart is really starting to, Walmart plus. Representative Bargain, Walmart can also subsidize sales because they've got this terrific advertising business. There may be apples and apples to oranges. Walmart's really spread far a feel from Target. Target is, to some degrees, missing the mark and they have to, maybe they have to up their game a bit, but they may not have the scale of Walmart. So I look at this and I say, geez, it's really sliding in part because it just may not have such special merchandise that it can compete against a really revitalized Walmart. Right. Walmart is just... Walmart, where grocery is 60% and Target's 20%. Thank you, because it's grocery. And it's, by the way, it's natural and organic. I think Walmart's giving whole foods for a run. Walmart is, under Doug McMillan, has become a company that looks a lot like what, like Costco, except for as many more shopkeeping units. You know, Costco ports 530, I think they'd have a great number. Here's where I think it's coming down. We've got Amazon, Amazon Prime. We've got Walmart and we have Costco. It's the big three. Interestingly enough, Rodney McMillan, when he's trying to get this deal done with Albertson Kroger, he keeps saying that that's who you're up against. I'm calling it big three this morning. There's a big three for food and food drives people. Costco, Amazon, Walmart, the big three of food. And I think that people have to start recognizing. You've got, look, one thing you have to do is you have to go there. I often joke with Walmart. We go to Walmart, well, maybe because I got a baker and I got a yoga instructor. I mean, you don't go, you go to where the money is. And if you can go to Walmart and they offer all sorts of much better, much better set of merchandise than people think, where everything is a little bit cheaper, that's really nipping at Target. Amazon, because of the same day, which they want so badly if you go over with Jazzy's been saying, nipping at Target. And then I got to take Costco, only 3,500 shopkeeping units, but they're so cheap that even, like when you talk to Walmart, they're like, say, yeah, and then there's Costco. Or you go to Amazon, they say, you know, we're not going to beat Costco. So you've got this big three of really, just like they're the grim reapers of everybody else. But the Target's numbers were just okay. By the way, I struggled yesterday in Lowe's. We had Marvin Ellis and do it yourself or not doing that much. Home Depot was not that great in the quarter. They're catering more to the people who make toll homes. But I am saying that this may have been a, this may have been a quarter where we recognize a, there's a separation, a separation. And Walmart is really, take a look at that stock price and look at their comps. Yeah, the only thing I would add on, on Target, City points out that we haven't yet hit the steep traffic comps that the clients, we saw when they had some of the pride merchandise. Look, I, yes, now look, I think Target is, is good. And by the way, their numbers, the sheer volume versus 2019 is terrific. But they seem to be late to the rollback. I mean, they roll, when they rollback Monday? Yep. I mean, Walmart rollback gigantically and Costco, by the way, because it's so important to be in their stores. Costco's calling them, I'm saying, okay, listen, you guys are so far off the mark. We're going to introduce Costco. We're going to introduce Kirkland Signature Corn Flakes unless you come down. And nobody has that kind of power except for Costco. So I just think that there's just three and then the rest of them are, they have to change their game. Target, which I love to shop at, Costco down. Okay, come on. Yeah, yeah, that's good. You guys are so smart in sellers, you're just such smart people, you're, you must be outgo. You nailed it. So what present, those guys are Stanford, Stanford comps, I, but I just look at Target and I just say, wow, Brian's got a, he's late to, to value. And Walmart, Walmart is, if you go to Walmart, which no one does who, who has a suit and lives on Wall Street, you go to Walmart, you say, what? What, how did you get that? Did you always, you always talk about the surprise quotient of going to a, Oh, it's so exciting. Half the country has not yet discovered. No, it's so, they have, I mean, I was talking with someone who lives down there. He said, you know, they've got this fashion unit, which are these people who are from the highest level of fashion in New York and Chicago. And they're just, they don't want to be talked about and they're crushing fashion. Now, I know, I saw a really good ad. I think it was one Saturday Night Live for the Chinese manufacturers. Everyone should go this like an unbelievable. Hey, you made the, without, it made no prison labor absolutely made with people, not made by people whose religion we hate, it's just brilliant, but I do think that that's another whole source of, that's waste magic. Yes. Yeah. Yes. Let's move on to the broader markets. We'll talk more retail in a little bit. Yeah, a lot. Because urban was really good. There's a lot of good stuff. Yeah. Nasdaq and DX entering today's session at some closing highs gym. Obviously, Nvidia is the elephant in the room all day today. When you mentioned Apple, I think it's worth mentioning that Apple made the quarter and then ever since then people have been saying, well, wait a second, maybe it has AI. Maybe it's going to take on Android. Maybe it has some ties even with Nvidia, which I think we could, I want to hear about tonight. But Nvidia is going to try to tell a story which is very different from what I think the street's looking for. I'll give you an example. Yesterday there was a story in, I don't know what I mentioned, an outlet which said that Amazon is, that stop chips. Now, Amazon and Nvidia said that story was untrue. It wasn't FTP, yes. Nvidia is very upset about it because Nvidia just says, can we just be who we are, not way. If you run a story says Amazon isn't buying chips, that's just, is that designed to knock down Nvidia stocks so there's a big short position? They sit down to, so you can get Nvidia's. It's because it didn't matter. Nvidia is going to talk about multi, multi, multi year in the same way that when I first met Jensen, he says, look, when we put the man on the moon in Mars, what we're going to have to do because it's a 2030 system. In 2030, you're going to have to change the different computations. I'm like, wait, we're not putting him in on Mars in 2030. He looks at me and he's like, how do you know? I mean, Jensen's going to go with the how do you know? He's going to, I think, say, look, this whole idea of Blackwell, all these people nipping at our heels, other than a very good Ben Wright's piece this morning about why you would buy AMD off of the Microsoft AIPC because that's who's in there. They're just going to try to, you can say, look, we're not where everybody else is. We're just a step, you can't do video without us. You can't get the robots to do without us. So I think Nvidia's show and tell tonight for the future as opposed to the quarter. As for Amazon, the other big news pieces today are AI revamp of Alexa, which are Kate Rooney just brought us a few moments ago, 17 billion in data center investment in Spain, one of the biggest tech investments in all of Southern Europe. I just, you have to be overseas, by the way, this is what Jensen's been begging people to be, to do sovereign AI, which is something that's kind of been forgotten. That's nice sovereign AI. Remember, St. And Jeff, biggest bank in Europe. I mean, Spain's made a major move. We took all we want about France, I think it's crazy. When I spoke with Amazon people about Alexa, I said, you know, Alexa sounds like that. It's like she's an inmate. I mean, I don't want Sarah Quill and made on Sarah Quill. I think that, you know, that's the most preferred drug for people in long-term penitentiaries. I do think that what's happened is that they've lost billions on Alexa, billions. And it's time that Alexa does not, it's not as, as really dense and not really comprehensive. I mean, like if you ask, let's say you asked Alexa, Alexa played Beethoven seven, okay? Yeah, it'll say Beethoven's fifth by the concerto bow. And they're like, well, you want no, no, Alexa's the seventh Beethoven six, the pastoral. Like it doesn't get it with, how about Mozart, the hefter? No, we don't have the hefter, we have the hefter. I mean, they have to get that thing better. And they know, right? They know. But what it really is great at is like listening to you and your wife talk about, you know, well, we got to go get some, we got to, we got to get a turkey. So it's got to let be less of a, of an interrogator of yourself and much more helpful. And they know it. They know that that's the weakness. When they say like, do you want to know the ball scores? I mean, the ball scores, I'm going to give me cricket. So they have to, they have to refine it. And I'm glad they're doing this because they're losing a fortune, one, a fortune on Alexa. Meantime, have you seen the chart circulating this week of the number of babies named Alexa in the last couple of years? Mm. Down, down big. Yes. Yeah. Alexa, they may have to even change her name and, you know, go to, uh, Zul. Oh, no, that's Bank of Amura. You know, it's Dana. They should go to Dana. Dana. Dana points. What? No. Dana from, from the funds. Yes. Yes, of course. Um, Jim, as for the Fed, um, we're not getting a lot of Fed speak today, but Waller yesterday today, Goldman says the Waller comments does raise the risk that maybe July doesn't happen, but they don't change their forecast for a July cut. Oh, uh, and, you know, frankly, can we just, uh, just stop it with the Fed speak right now? I mean, we're in, we're, we're really in a zone where we are finding out who's lowering prices and who's making it so it's deflationary, how Costco's rolled back two years, Walmart's rolled back two years, Lowe's is rolling back to last year. We're getting rollbacks and that's the focus and I think the Fed, they should go shopping because what you're seeing are prices coming down. We're seeing the major suppliers having the lower prices, con ag or lowering prices. They're real, they should, they're getting what they want. Uh, well, what's interesting in addition to oil being down, which we mentioned earlier, how about that? Are the retailers that are not changing their comp guidance, but they are upping EPS margin guidance. So it's not like they're counting on traffic to improve. Right. They're going to, whatever improvement comes is going to be internal. Well, what they ought to do is just look at what TJX did, which is just a terrific number. Uh, or William Sonoma, what is Laura Alber doing? And I think she's offering affordable luxury. That's one of those wraps that people have, but yeah, she actually does offer affordable luxury. Her prices are really good and she's digital first. Digital first is winning. Uh, by the way, let's go back to Target. They're not digital first enough. They're better than they've been, but this Walmart plus, I mean, Walmart plus is just, I mean, if you don't have Walmart plus, you got to rethink your game. But at least digital comps were up as opposed to physical time and Brian will be mad at me. Digital comps. I want to get into them. They're doing it. I'm just saying that this Walmart plus is kitchen sink. There is an, I mean, I was with someone who is a multi billionaire for dinner the other night. Uh, and he asked me, if you looked at the value of Walmart plus, I'm like, I said, like, you're like worth billions. He was, it doesn't really matter. Walmart plus. And then one more plus is veterinary care. But this guy was billion, billionaires are noticing Walmart. I mean, that's something. Well, that's the other thing about Target, Jim, the discussion today about Target 360 where you're paying a hundred bucks for some free shipping, whether that's too little, too late in that race. I don't know. Look, I, I have tremendous respect for Brian Cornell. I love going to their stores. They've got these house brands that are fantastic, but it's apples to oranges. This Walmart is doing things that I am urging people to go to Walmart this weekend and they'll be better at stock selection if they go and go into a power, go into sporting goods, go into the foodos. Do it. You'll see the prices and you'll say they could not be real. I mean, it's not the crazy ad because, of course, he was a crumb, but I don't understand the price. Like a lot of times when I look at the prices, they're like, no, no, let's go check that price. That can't be. And I don't have a lot of stores where I'm saying, no, that can't be. It just can't be. So if you're looking at a discretionary retailer like Target with Comms Negative, TJX Ascendant Walmart, your point is a powerhouse in grocery. Yes. Is that an overall negative tell on the U.S. consumer? I think no. I think that the U.S. consumer is, as they said in that brilliant, brilliant urban outfitters call. The U.S. consumer is enthusiastic. I think the urban quote was consumer demand remains robust. Was brilliant. That was the consumer is enthusiastic, not exuberant. I know it sounds like a pedestrian to say, listen, everyone's got to go to the urban call. But urban is historically cold fashioned. They've historically described the zeitgeist. There cannot be a consumer's enthusiastic at urban and not enthusiastic at Target. No. Urban's got free people, some amazing numbers. And I want to talk Macy's later, because I think Macy's was the unsung story of yesterday, because people didn't read the conference call, didn't realize that Tony Spring is saying, listen, we're bringing in brands. And what's he bringing in? Free people. And free people is a huge brand, institutional apologies, a huge brand. So once again, apologize to Target and Brian Cornell, it's a good quarter. But the problem is, is it wasn't a great quarter. And Walmart, in retrospect, was a great quarter. And how many earnings have we seen where a super micro doesn't cut guidance but doesn't raise enough and then the price? That's what you're seeing. GX, it's always the question that they raised enough because they're a little conservative. I think they have, but I always recognize them. When they start the call, it's a travel trust, and when they start the call, they absolutely just say, listen, whatever, whatever positives you're thinking, take it back, because that's who they are. All right. I like people who say whatever positives you're thinking. And I talked about this with Mark Nelson from Lowe's, whatever positives you're thinking, why don't you mention it? Take a look at the pre-market. There's a lot more to get to this morning. We'll get to some news on Lulu. There's some Tesla news, new street high target for Goldman out of B of A, futures mixed here this morning as we wait for Nvidia tonight. More school walk in the streets, straight ahead. Hi, I'm Ben. I suffer from a condition called writer's block. It strikes when I'm at work. That's why I choose Canva Magic right. It works fast, generating texts in seconds, thanks to AI. Common side effects include increased productivity, compliments from coworkers, buildings of satisfaction. Now I can say bye-bye to writer's block. Ask your boss if Canva Magic right is right for you at Canva.com designed for work. Canva. Electricity, a big idea that's inspired countless new ones, from powering the lightbulb to virtually powering our entire lives. 30 years ago, State Street launched the Spyder S&P 500 ETF, Spy, a big idea that inspired the world to invest differently, and still does. What can you do with Spy? For more investing, consider the funds, investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. 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That's target Brian Cornell on the earnings call a few moments ago, echoing the point Jen that you started out with was that a lot of this shouldn't be a surprise. No, I mean look, they are saying discretionary spending is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, and that to me is their view that the consumer is not spending enthusiastically versus what we mentioned with urban. I do think that target has to go get it on track. Then I say get it on track, I mean they did not do the number, and Brian, I love Brian Cornell, it's been ten years, but he didn't do better than the number. You do the number these days on Wall Street, that's not forgiving, they don't forgive that. They say, "Well, it did the number." The other give me something. Tell me you didn't get too early, it was SG&A, 21% of revenue, which was up from a year ago. Yeah, you don't want that. Now Walmart has been spending a lot of money on technology, and it's really paying off. There was also a chief growth officer who was saying, "We remain cautious in our near term growth outlook." Well, they're not cautious, Doug McBelle is not cautious. He's not. You could say Doug is Rose color glasses, he's not, he's a hardcore guy. So I'm not cautious, obviously Laura Alber is not that cautious of William Sonoma, urban, not that cautious. I want to keep a little cautious, low score, now where am I going? I'm saying that it's varied. You don't want to have, I mean William Sonoma's obviously, they've got the right merchandise. Maybe it's merchandise. Maybe it's got the right price point. You're seeing some guys being on their game, and some companies not being on their game, and that's okay. We have differences all the time. It just hasn't happened in retail as much as we're getting. Yes, yes, and we're still going to get to Petco and Lulu with some news last night, Jim. Jim, Roo Hoo may be, you know, we've got Viori, we've got Ligie's car heart rate, it tractors by going against him. And of course the Atlanta gap, the gap's doing much better. They've got a Dern, and suddenly they're in a dog fight, Lulu's in a dog fight. Well not, you know, it would have been nicer to know it at 500 hours. Yeah, one of the rare retail names, skirting off a 52 week lows on Lulu. We'll get Kramer's mad dash to and count down to the opening bell on a Wednesday that's busy and about to get busier tonight. Stay with us. Also, Canva presents unexplained appearances. It was an ordinary work day until that presentation appeared out of thin air. So it's eerily on brand. Wait, did that agenda just right itself? Words appear, making this unexplainable case. Unexplainable? It's Canva's AI tools. I can generate slides and words in seconds. Really? I mean, the real mystery is why I'm only learning this now. Canva.com, designed for work. Take a look at some of the S&P gainers this morning, ADIs right there at the top with a beat, revenue ahead, guides Q3 sales above, talks about inventory, stabilizing, Jim. That's going to be a new all-time high. And I move tax instruments too, which is on the go of a slice right through 200. Along with TJX, which we've covered retail just a bit here this morning, opening bell is coming up in four and a half minutes. Don't forget, you can catch us anytime, anywhere. Just listen to and follow the squawk on the street, opening bell podcast. It's time for Kramer's mad dash as we count down to the opening bell. A toll-diver for a good nurse is highest luxury, a billion-dollar homes, and they said the order growth exceeded the consensus estimates, everything's really good, except for the stock has doubled. They have a big repurchase, they can buy back another 17% of the company they want to. But they are talking about some areas of the country that are a little bit softer, mentioned Florida, still good demand, but maybe there's some softness there. And so what happens is that when you have a stock that's this high, if there's any chink, people are going to focus on the chink. I think the Toll Brothers is doing quite well. But when you see rising inventory in homes, you start thinking, well, maybe they can't maintain that gross margins that's been so terrific. I don't want to bet against Doug Yearly in the longer term, which may be like tomorrow. But I recognize that if you have any chinks, this is like Target. I mean, like, Target's good, and they'll sequentially be better next quarter, that's going to be great. But there's just, well, you know what, they presented some things that I didn't know. I didn't know Florida had, right? Oh, but what? Don't worry about the foreign rising inventory. Wait a second. Why is it even good? I thought there was, like, a short supply. So that's what's happened. Don't worry about didn't know about. Yeah. The orders were good. The pricing was a little soft. Yeah. On the orders. So, well, we get to a point where there's too many homes built. That's going to take a long time. It just don't build as many homes as we need. We're obviously building the same amount of homes as we were when our country was half the size. But the great home builder, Scott Rowley, isn't necessarily over, but this is what the Fed should be saying. Oh, we take mortgage rates up a little. We get a little inventory build. Maybe home prices come down. Home prices are up 40% since 2019. It keeps going the Fed's way. That's why if I were a Fed governor or officer, I would be saying I have nothing to say. Because then it would be so great. Why don't you shut up? Yeah. You're like babbin. You go to a different club every day and say something. No. It's going your way. Let the Fed chief speak. Just because you're, I remember I used to handle the finances of a governor of the Fed. And I said, "Why don't you speak publicly?" He said, "Well, you see, we have someone who runs the Fed." And I said, "Well, don't you think you could offer advice?" And he goes, "Oh, so we're supposed to have many voices." I mean, book them out. That's for a different age. And by the way, can I just say, you know what I want me to just name you? It's by far considered the biggest intellectual of the Fed. And I think that what's happened is is that we have discord and views of the Fed. And it's almost like they really want to be somebody. You know what? I mean, go get my nation to a show. I mean, don't want to be, don't be somebody. We have a Fed chief. Let's not take away from his view by, by having a capacity to talk. Yeah. Well, while our two-year point, Jim, did say yesterday, I told on our air that inflation will have to bite to bring inflation down. With that said, refies 20-month high this week as the 30-year fix goes to 60. Maybe your fix goes to 701. Well, that's a seven-week low. Yeah. Look, if there were homes to buy, it would matter. I mean, we need to see inventory. We need to see of the existing home that we know from Home Depot and Lowe's, the fix-up costs too much money. Of the new home costs too much money. I hear the things down a bit, but what we really need as long as we have everybody with a job, there's too many people competing for a home. And I just, I want to see that inventory build. I don't, I still don't see it. Like I said, everyone looks at anything. Any chink in a stock like total, which is almost double, but I need to see inventory of homes in the same way that we need to see a Walmart come into the home business. We don't have anybody. There are all, no one wants to cut price. Right. There's too much demand. Right. But doesn't that make you optimistic about inflation? Absolutely. We're already printing basically a target without owners equivalent rent. That's exactly where I am. I'm saying to these Fed people who speak, go look at the data before you talk. Look at the up-to-date data. Look at the individual companies. Walmart, Walmart is not anecdotal. Costco's a hundred and thirty million. Walmart's double that. You've got the, Walmart is big international too though. But you've got to look at what the companies are saying, not the aggregate data. Because the aggregate data, as we know, is often either wrong or late. And if the, if I were, that's what I said at Fed Gov, I said, look, you know, we got really good news from Walmart. We got really good news from Home Depot. We got really good news below. But they'll never mention a company, ever. They're almost anti-impirical in the way that they speak. Right. So therefore they don't have the rigor that I expected. A lot of it is very qualitative. They can shoot from the hip. Now if I want to shoot from the hip, I will be Anthony Evers. He can shoot. That's the second day in a row with Anthony Evers. Because the guys, he's the next buckle Jordan. Yes. He's the next buckle Jordan. That's why NBC ought to get the contract, okay? Because when you get to the end, when you get to the playoffs, it's dazzling. For the first 80 games, not so much. Right. Jim, we mentioned ADI leading the S&P here. Wow. But on semi-NXP Skyworks Qualcomm, they're all on the top. We've been waiting for Vincent Roche to give us the heads. He's really good to see you. Oh man. We believe, he did the queue. It's like the duck came down. We believe in inventory rationalization. We believe inventory rationalization across our broad custom basis stabilizes. And there you go. Now, what does that mean? Okay. You've got that same language from Sanjay Morotra at Micron. Last year, when the stock was 70, you got the same inventory rational... Well, you just call it almost double. Now, analog devices is an internet or things company, which is industrial. But this was what I've been waiting for. Look at Micron. You see where he made the call that things have rationalized? And there were a lot of people who fought. You gave him props when he sat here the other day. I loved him. I love him. And then, you know, the other day we saw a hapless analyst who's a really good guy. I say, "Look, I got to capitulate." Because he didn't heed the thunder. And you have to heed the thunder of when you have this call of inventory rationalization. What that means is there's not enough inventory. We can raise price. Imagine if you go to Costco and you find out there's not a lot of toilet paper. Everybody else, they can raise price in that Kirkland signature. So they can raise price on what a lot of people think is a commodity. It is an ADI. It's a really great company. But we're... The next instance should be up to 10 points right now. They're the rival. Yeah. Speaking of inventory, you mentioned William Sonoma where inventory was down 13. Oh, she's amazing. That's been a running theme in these specialty retail reports as well. Except for R.H. Absolutely. Laura Alber came to San Francisco when I did a show. This talk was at 200. She reported some great numbers. And the stock was immediately cut in half. And we really... She and I were baffled. But what happened is that people were saying, "You know what? We're done with fixing up our home because of COVID. We fixed it up. We don't need William Sonoma." What they forgot was William Sonoma's selling fix. William Sonoma always has different things regardless of whether you're doing your place over or not. I was at West Elm the other day. It's completely different than what it was. There's a fashion element to what she does. Now, she is so low-key and non-promotional. I have begged her to come on and go to a store because the stores are looking fantastic. But she just says, "Look, we're digital first. You know, come on." But I think that anyone who goes to the river like we will with River Heart Outlet, I don't know if it's in this weekend. Oh, yeah. Out on Long Island. You can't believe it. Give me some more damage boxes. I always take pictures of this. This damage, this box is damaged. Oh, this espresso maker. She goes, "Don't worry about it. The product itself is not damaged." And I realize my wife says, "Are you really touching the CEO?" And he asks, "What do you think of that?" Don't pull that card too much. One last bit on retail gym is Shopify, Goldman going to buy 74. Oh, good. Because Harley deserved that. Look, they actually had this story. But when, you know, when we had Harley Figgles, you know, and they kind of just said, "Listen, don't worry about it." The story Goldman was saying was, you know, what they were doing, they were really spending a lot more money. And that wasn't self-evident. Now they're spending the money and they're getting results. And I really like that. I like this call because this stock's been crushed. But a lot of the consumer practice good companies still use it. And they're dealing with Amazon's very positive. Amazon likes them, which I always think funny. But Amazon likes to be. And they like to like everybody. They're a big tent company, even as their elements of our government thinks that they're not. Correct. So I did that. Well, on that point, Jim, this report that Kate Rooney brought us on, or actually was out of DC, on the CFPB. Can we answer? And a firm. And I'll actually, I'll not buy now paylators. I thought that was hilarious because they want to regulate it like credit card. Oh good, it's not down a lot. A firm deserves a little better. When you have a no fees, why should I regulate you as the same as someone who has fees? That doesn't make sense. Yeah. We had Max on a few days ago, and he repeated his long-standing argument that they are smarter about delinquencies and charge-offs and weakening consumer balance sheets than we think. They are, and they have the algos. I mean, what's interesting for when I had Max on, Max Leifchen, is that their delinquencies are going down. They are the higher priced spread. They do a great job. Although today, what we in a Bank of America know about banks. So that's where I was going next. Some takeaways from the JP Morgan Investor Day. B of A looks at trends in IB, for example. Street High on Goldman will be now to 525. Goldman, I saw that and I said, "Jesus, this is just a..." David, how about David Solomon going from being someone who is like, "Ah, I don't know," to being the guy everyone's looking to? And I have a theory on why that is. The people who have left Goldman have shut up and have stopped there, now they know. I don't get that call anymore. I was like, "Hey, David Solomon." They're no longer complaining about the stock? I was complaining about David Solomon. I said, "Listen, David, all you do, I see you play in records." And he goes, "I see you in your garden. Are you more stupid than I are in your garden constantly? What is that about?" I said, "Whoa, guilty!" But he has gotten away from the diss and I'm planning this weekend. So sorry, David, I got the edge on you. I do think that David is very, very good. And the people who badmouthed him, I would love to name them. But I'm too much of a statesman these days. Like Jefferson, if not Adams. Goldman, your date was underperforming the S&P until about mid-April. And then it just took off like a rocket. Well, I was trying to say investment banking momentum continued. Well, give me an equity offering prep and segments continuing. Although the Reddit deal was very good, that Morgan Stanley deal did great. Here's one that I keep thinking. Well, when we hear tonight, AI could redefine industry cost structure. Productivity is real. Other than JP Morgan, which has spent a lot of money on this, I still don't see the great productivity gains. I think the banks are going to have to start pointing out where they are. I don't see them. Right. Yeah, we've been trying to get them, well, JP Morgan did quantify their use cases. But I'm not sure how much that is worth at the moment, right? Well, if Jamie had not talked about succession, the stock would have been on. Yeah. I was like, you know, I was amazed how much time he spent killing the stock. You know, it's like, hey, let me kill the stock here. What's he going to do? Work forever? I don't know. I mean, there's, I don't want succession. I don't, if I want succession, I'll go season four, which I really liked. Hey, Adrian Brody, is he involved with it? That was a killer performance. Frank Rich, our good friend, one of the great show runners in history. Frank Rich, I thought to me, you know, when he was in college, he was submitting blurbs, and they all thought he was real. And so he's been, he's been real for like 60 years. Jim, there's some news on Tesla. A lot of it involves new EU registrations now at a 15 month low. Adam Jonas and Morgan Stanley, this line caught my attention. The AI theme is taking off, even as the EV theme is plumbing, deeper depths of disappointment. Well, I think that we have to go to the Panasonic president, Yuki Kasumi, I'm sorry if I mispronounced that. Our challenge regarding, I mean, they make the batteries for Tesla. Our challenge regarding the profit for automobile battery business comes from a huge drop of demand for batteries used in specific models and then says that Tesla has had a drastic decrease in sales. I regard that as very important because it's indicative of the whole past issue that is Tesla. I don't want to buy it. I don't want to buy it for AI because if I win AI from Tesla, I'll just go buy, I'll go buy NVIDIA, which is the answer AI. Tesla stock was up very big the other day. But that's, remember, when Musk said, listen, I guess I have to use NVIDIA. No one wants to use NVIDIA because then you have to get launched. Sure. Well, but Jonas's point, and he, by the way, he does reiterate an overweight, is that auto companies tend to find a way to follow a theme. And he would argue, I think, that GM and Ford are undervalued here. I'm worried that GM is going to get hit by tariffs from China. GM is a very big business in China. They do tariffs, not so good. On a day where the Chinese do float through the China Chamber of Commerce, some 25% tariffs on US and EU cars. Yes, I just think you have to understand that Europe is very mixed here, very complicated. So 17% of their cars go to China. And no one, they don't want to get hit by a tariff there. Look, I wonder, by the way, if NVIDIA will talk about China tonight and what they can do, what they can't do, because they have kind of chips that are not as strong for China. But I think the story is going to be, look, we're sold out for as long as, we're sold out, right? And I don't know many companies that have a product that, before chips, is sold out. And that's really why Jensen Wong is so exalted here. Because that means you can maintain price for the whole product money. Well, your point about China is getting a lot of attention today. There's a big piece about President Xi and looking at personal disposable income under his term versus his predecessors as well below average. Yeah. Lulu today, I don't know that we're going to call that a China story. They are losing their chief product officer. That was, you know, the Lulu news is disturbing. Obviously, they're having issues. Maybe the issues are going to be one day built into the price. China is elusive. Some guys are doing better than others. Remember the Apple problem, which is that Apple, when they report, it always ends up doing better than all the things that we thought were going to happen. There are actually companies, though, in China that, like, I woke up this morning and we've got this pin PDD. A pin to a drill. And it's up 5, then it's up 12, and it's up 5. But right after Baba, the one thing that we have is the stock market is boy-in over there. And I think that as Baba comes down, I don't recommend Chinese stocks typically, but it's maybe the cheapest stock owner. All right, Baba. But you have to get comfortable with the idea that China is, that President Xi's become very mercurial. He is not what I had expected from China for... I remember when Joe and Lai was like, "Listen, welcome. Come on." He's like, "You know, I don't want you. I'm going to do what I want. I'm going to bug you." I mean, no, you got to play. President Xi's got to play the game. He's not. They're no longer the single source of additional marginal sales for many companies, because Trump and then Biden made it so that they weren't. I mean, you know, look, the only stuff that's really getting sold over there, we're making is Tyson Foods, and that's because we have product safety. And Tyson's been a very good stock donor by the way. Well, remember the days where we wondered what Baba's aspirations were in North America? Those days are done. And now we're fielding headlines about layoffs at TikTok, for example. I thought that was amazing. I was watching... I was watching Frank this morning, and I said, "Wow, TikTok." Geez, I thought that they were doing terrific. I'm talking about for your Frank on wax, which I watch every morning. It's a great show. And when I look at TikTok, I said, "Well, that was supposed to be the hottest thing on Earth." So I come back and say, "Look, China does not have what we used to expect from China, so they ought to ratchet back what I regard as arrogance. When you go to Milan, it's no longer built and road." Now, they have made a real stand in the countries that have raw goods. I mean, I'm sure if I were to add an Africa, I'd see Belt and Road. That's their initiative, their foreign policy initiative. And they're still doing many things that are admirable in terms of trying to get people from the rural to the city. But they do not act as if they've had problems. They act as if they're on top. No, we don't act that way. Of course, we self-dentigrade ridiculously. Hey, here are student loans. You don't have to pay. You don't have to pay. Yeah. They're strategic patoys. Let's just like sell it. One of the other names. I'm going to ask you. Highly exposed to China is McDonald's. Interesting piece, Jim, about the franchise group here in the States pushing back on this value-meal proposition. They were the recent... There is an annual meeting today. That were the reason why they couldn't do it. They wanted it headquarters. It headquarters is a couple of... they wanted to do it. But the franchisees fought them. I don't know what chipped, but they went against a lot of the franchisees, which is highly unusual. But again, they raised prices too much. They had the $4.00, went to $5.00. The only Popeyes didn't raise too much. And that's one of the reasons why RBI is good. What wings stopped didn't raise much. But a lot of that is, by the way, the price of wings went down a lot. Yeah. I mean, franchisee relations is a classic. Never-ending tale. Oh, that's why I like Chipotle. No franchises. Just unbelievable management giving stock of the splits going to happen very soon. That stock has quietly kept up for almost 40% this year. Brian Nickel trying to make it so that the managers don't leave. And he's keeping him with that stock split because he's going to give him stock. You know, this is an unsung, non-franchise story that is doing so well. And we should be talking about Chipotle all the time because they have figured out a way to be able to actually raise price and not lose customers. I don't know. Maybe it's, I don't like quality. Yes. It tastes good. Yes. I remember when they had quality issues years ago. Well, you put them in the penalty box. Yeah, but then we went on and went dropped up 180 because I was looking at the Taco Bell come back in the Jack in the box, come back. You can come back from what they did. You'll come back from here for an illness. This is holy cow. And they were buried. They redid a lot of their stuff. Brian came in and really just, you know, Brian came from Taco Bell. Okay. I like him so much. He's good. I always thought he was like, I kind of likes Philly teams, but it's never really clear. Check bonds today as we're obviously in a muted range. Just in peace, just down a point. We'll get existing homes in about 15 minutes and a 20-year auction at one o'clock Eastern time. 10-year creeps up back to 443. Stay with us. Watch Padco here in an area of 30% gain. This is going to be the first peak above the 200-day in a couple of years as the company does come in with a narrower than expected loss. Tops down 1-2, less than expected. Guides Q2 in line, Jim. Well, I mean, good. It won't be a penny stocker. By the way, right, they're having real problems with getting supplies. That one could go. Maybe that could save more. I mean, nothing's saving more here than the CVS right now. Yeah. But keep in mind, some of these are thin ice. Yeah. Good at these guys. We should mention a small quarter cap under a billion. Trillion. That's a billion. Let's get stopped trading with Jim in just a minute. Dows up four points. Don't go anywhere. It's time for Jim and stop trading. The pin action off this analog device is going to be bigger than just Texas Instruments. I want to point out that Microchip, which is a $53 billion company, only at 8% for so far this year. They will have more of a move. That's going to be a breakout move. By the way, on semi-two because it's got auto and ADI is auto. So don't forget, there is a cohort of semis. It's not done well that it's now ready to accelerate. Be there. Jim, I got to get you on the VIX, which closed decidedly below 12 again. It's currently under 12. The spoke with a nice piece on what complacency means these days. Well, complacency would be a big shortfall in video, I think, when shaped people up. Yes. I'm not looking for that. The expectations are incredibly high. But yeah, I mean, it's disturbing that there's a level of complacency that is shocking. At the same time, remember not to fight the Fed. And the Fed is winning. So you would be up against something that would indicate that the Fed's staying higher for longer. The numbers get better than the Fed has to change their status. And you're short or out of the market that day. That's a Peter Lynch day. Peter Lynch, you say that the great fund management, there's a couple of days a year that you've got to be in. And I would be afraid to react to the VIX and get out for that day where Paul says, you know what? But it's time to say that we've had three straight months and I'm getting a little better. Does that just happen? Yes. He learned his lesson because I'm getting a little happy. Yes, yes. He's so, you know, I want him to be happy. He's a great guy. He is. He's like a great guy. He's going to have to. He's going to have to. Well, anyway, I mean, I think he's going to get his day. It's just that he's got to take this time and not be exuberant. And we have to get the other people who speak publicly to realize that doesn't help anything. Other than perhaps their stature if they want to move up in the police athletically. Sure. Which I ran. Don't worry. I'm not against PAL. I like PAL. As for tonight, Jim. Okay. I've got Cisco, but the FYY come to get a read on restaurants. By the way, I think that one of the reasons that Walmart's doing so well, it's gotten too expensive to go out. Unless you have a 1099 welfare like Texas Roadhouse or Brinker, you're not doing well. And Texas Road, you got to, you know, you need an early bird special. And then, you know, Ramaswami, everyone wants to know what's happening. There's snowflakes in this Frank Sloopman where you're going to find out if you watch the show tonight. Wow. That was. Yeah, I got it. I feel like I just when I ran this. Two hundred, I used to run in 220. That was definitely a word. That was really hot. High ticker count. I ran this hour. And realized, which was, you know, a couple of weeks ago. And I flew up after the race. Well, see you at six. Absolutely. Mad money, six PM Eastern time. When we come back more on what to expect from NVIDIA tonight as the market is on Tinder hooks here. Dow is just down ten. 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