(upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - PGA Nation, we are back and we're coming off a fun PGA championship. There's no way last Tuesday you could have asked me, well, how do you think this week's gonna go? And the answer would have been, special should have been to get arrested at the courts, not coming to top five. And Zander Shoffley is gonna hang on and hold the lead and win the tournament. All things that were unfathomable a week ago, and they all came to fruition. So listen, congrats to Zander. I'm really happy for him. Zander is, you know, he says that he didn't deserve to win a tournament. He has been playing great golf all year. He needed to get over the humbling and get that win. I'm glad he did. It was a fun week, but we got more golf again this week as we head down to Texas. And I'm excited to break it down with you all. Spence, how you doing tonight? - I was having this conversation with somebody out of the 156 players that played last week. If you were to power rank from the most likely person to get arrested to the least likely person, I really think I could have fired off. I mean, there's some random people that I don't know their names. So like the club pros that you're gonna have it. I mean, they're probably gonna be near the top of the list for that. But I might legitimately run through 155 names before I would have gotten the Scotty Scheffler. Like he was probably the least likely person. Very unfortunate situation with how everything played out. And I know the joke was made from David, but that was some of your best work yet, Joel, with almost getting Scotty to get withdrawn from the tournament. - Obviously, I knew that was gonna be a risk. That's why I dreamt I wanted to keep this week alive. But to your point, even like when I was explaining what was happening to like my wife and family members who maybe artists looked into golf, I had to explain the situation by saying this is the least likely person you could possibly imagine to get arrested. And even I was even saying we're not even having the content. So it just kind of makes the police look bad. Just knowing it's hard to believe that he could have been like aggressive in this situation, just knowing how Scotty is. So it's certainly made for entertaining news and something to talk about in the tournament, but it was a little disappointing because even though he played great that day, I certainly think it affected his weekend. - David, how about you, how are you doing tonight? - I'm good, I'm good. I mean, look, the curse of Joel on players knows no bounds. When you draft players like Will's Alatoris and the Decumetsia, I'm a back-to-back and one of them withdraws, you're just kind of asking for trouble. But to get the world number one golfer arrested, ruin his tournament, let's be honest, it did affect him over the weekend, it had to. I mean, the curse of Joel is just so strong, it is confirmed. Super excited to see who Joel's taking this week so I can just fade every single one of those players because who knows, one of them's probably going to get like a priest with drug charges or something that you just never would have expected. - No, for sure. I am going to draft someone that is going to have some sort of issue. I don't, honestly, and the funny thing about this work, we joke about it, the funny thing about this is, this has been going on now for multiple years. This isn't even this, like, oh, it's just been a month or two, it's just now like yearly curse draft. So hopefully we break out of it and we get some Ws along the way. I'm excited for this week. I think it's an interesting field. It's a nice pivot off of a major championship this week, heading down to Texas for this Charles Strong tournament, it's a unique course. So it's definitely something spent, do you have your work cut out on you on for you with the course breakdown and the type of golf you're looking for? And it's certainly going to be different in terms of profile than you would on a PGA championship. So spend and letting us, what are you looking for on the course this week? - There's going to be a lot of discussion that's going to take place on any show that you listen to about what kind of an impact are we going to have here from Gil Hands' restoration of the property? They put over $20 million and invested it into the facility to try to return it back to its original design. I think this is where it comes down to the deciding factors of exactly how we're going to be looking at this tournament because on one side of the aisle, no matter how you try to build this, and this is a really weird answer I'm about to give, it looks like this glorified pitch and putt contest almost, but the caveat to that is it removes high end birdie making potential from the equation. And I'll explain a little bit why I think that's the reason there in a second. But I think on the second side of it, it would be what do you think Hands' restoration actually does? Are there any deviations that come into play? Should we be building models differently? And when I look at this course, you get tree-lined fairways, forced layups, all of that end up stymying second shots if you go wayward off the tee. I thought the most interesting return from that answer is that distance when I ran it inside my model. I know some extra yardage was added this year, it just comes over a couple of holes for the most part, but distance was almost completely eradicated from the equation inside of my model for the importance that we were going to get. You get a lot of that also with the dispersion of scoring delivering over a 3% decrease in off the tee expectation. You have these smaller than average greens. You get this yearly increase in the field's performance with the putter. I think all of that should be deemed noteworthy because it does generate a very isolated distribution in the way that these putts come in. So 6% more putts are hold from 10 to 25 feet than average. But here's where this pitch and putt becomes awkward in having this discussion. So all of those answers are accompanied by this very complicated return because you also get a 4% expected increase for strokes gained approach. So essentially to simplify everything I'm saying there to make this a little bit more tangible for everybody listening, your irons aren't being hit as close to the pin as your average tours stop, yet the approach metrics are still going to demand quality production to find success. So for me, when I built my math, that meant that hitting a green in regulation is likely what ends up being the most important factor in your projection. I think a lot of that does help to explain why we've gotten an average winning score of just under 12 under par over the past five years. I don't know exactly what we're going to get with hands is construction. You have new bet and grass greens. I think it's going to be firm and fast. You're probably going to get a lot of bounce off of these greens. I just don't know if the longterm expectation is really that much different even with the construction that we've gotten. There's a lot of things that we could note of what they've added and why this is going to be different. But there's a reason why this is one of the more challenging stops that they get on tour every single year. And it really doubles down on that sentiment that when we always talk about distance isn't necessarily what makes a course hard. We can look at the PGA championship last weekend. You give it a soft golf course and the players are going to get the 21 under par to win. I think these fast firm conditions, these smaller than average greens, the way that this facility is built makes for a much more challenging course. And I'm going to build this more or less like I would any other tournament here. I think if you start deviating from that, you're making projections of information that we don't really know. And I don't want to get caught having projections and expectations that I'm trying to extrapolate out on changes that might not be occurring even if it looks like it on paper. - There you have it. It's a tricky one this week, but it should be fun. It should be a fun tournament. And what I like about this week is that there is a cut. So your strategy is different with a cut event versus a non-cut event. You definitely want to find your cut makers. You need to have six guys playing four days. So we can break that down. But we're going to get right into the draft tonight for those of you that might be new to the show. If you don't know, go ahead and log in to the show on YouTube. You can draft along with us. So we're going to draft 14th the night. Myself, David, Spencer, we each have a team audience. You draft your own team per use. It is a snake style draft just like any fantasy football draft. The order tonight is going to go Spencer, David, myself, audience who go last, you'll have two in a row. The audience pick is finalized when the second, when a player is nominated. And then a second person also recommends the same player. Zach Jeffers will be leading the audience as he normally does with the lock button to confirm each of your picks throughout the draft. Without further ado, Spencer, with the first pick, here on the clock. - This is probably not the strategy to go. Like I'm pretty sure, I'm not 100% sure of this week didn't calculate the totals. I'm pretty sure that the audience won. I believe I came in second. It was a very close outcome between everybody. And I talked last week about giving myself the number one pick or being given the number one pick. And that not necessarily being the go-to route that has been the most fruitful for me. But I'm a stubborn person. I'm going to do it again. And I'm not going in the route that everybody expects, which has been the common answer that I have given now for two consecutive months to where I continue to let Scotty Scheffler for whatever reason this is fall down the board. I think the top of this range in the $10,000 plus section has a lot of intrigue to it with the upside that we see. And I always look in my model to try to find this, I call it positive trajectory for upside. And most of these names beneath that $10,000 range end up having some negative trajectory in my sheet. So safe potential, a lot of ownership around them, a lack of the upside of what I'm actually trying to find. There was one golfer for me that was in this $9,000 and up range other than one guy at the very top. That's not named Scotty Scheffler for obvious reasons. Scotty has that, he's also a three to one golfer. But there was one name for me that had that answer. That is Brian Harmon at 9,500. My model is either really aggressive on him in one way or another when it likes him. It really likes his chances. And when it wants to fade him, there's a reason why he's normally the person that I take on. But fifth for weighted scoring inside of my sheet, sixth for weighted strokes gain total. When you add that to his first place rank that he generated for expected par four scoring, I think you get an extremely high ceiling golfer here who also possesses a pretty nice floor. I thought this was too cheap of a price tag for the skill set he has. So I will take Brian Harmon at 9,500. - I'm definitely behind that thing. I like Harmon a lot this week. The only hesitation for me this week with Harmon is you can't really afford him with Scotty because you play Scotty, you got to go down the bar. But if you're not playing Scotty, Harmon would definitely be someone I'd be looking to get into my lineup. One more quick thing. I didn't say the meaning of the show in case you're new to the draft guest, you do need to stay within the drafting side with the draft teams. You can't just take any player. We are directing real teams that we would be able to enter in a draft team lineup. David, we love your take on Brian Harmon and then who are you going with the second pick? - I really like Brian Harmon this week. I wouldn't have taken him with my first pick, but I did have him in my little cheat sheet here as a player that I did one of my lineups. So there's a steal from Spence in regards to how I probably would have taken him with the second selection here. And that means I've got to reject my model. Look, we're going to see quite a lot of wind this week at Colonial and you also see a big uptick in around the green. It's one of the most predictive around the green as a predictor of six years. So I really do think that Brian Harmon's combination of short game acumen and putting school will be a benefit this week with the wind. There is some rain on Wednesday as well. So we do think it would probably play a little bit softer on the Thursday, but given the high winds they expect to dries out pretty fast. And I quite like the fact that Brian Harmon gets a morning tea time on that Thursday to make the most of those soft conditions, calmer conditions in the morning compared to the afternoon. And then yeah, look, I mean, this is going to be a wedge fair so it's three line fairways. We know Brian Harmon's accurate off the tee. Just proportionate number of approach shots between 100 to 200 yards. Again, another strength of Brian Harmon's game. So do really like that selection there. And I think this is a very, very good stop for him. So in that regard, I'm going to have to reject my line up a little bit. And I'm going to go and take a player actually in the 8800 range that I really like this week, which is Billy Gortle. Billy has been playing some really good golf as of late. No less then at the PGA Championship last week, refinished eighth. And the impressive thing for me with that is like, that's a 7600 pass 71. Like that is not the course that we expect Billy Gortle to show up at. But his approach metrics are really good. He gained over four strokes on approach for the week. Did a lot with the putter. He hasn't lost with the short game since February. So his chipping is very, very good, which is going to be important this week for me. And the driving accuracy, of course, is really going to be a key this week with those tree line fairways. So it's a kind of spot that I expect someone like Billy Gortle to perform well. And I was just so impressed with the performance last week, eighth of the PGA Championship. And that caliber of field is undoubtedly a step backwards and a much more suitable golf course for me. Billy Ho looked really good on Sunday this week. I like Billy Gortle. I think it's a good pay expense. How about you? You and Billy Gortle at all? I always talk about players, and it's interesting, because there's certain players that do not suit courses. And when they give you that performance that David was just talking about, and then you put them at a course that is much more suited for their game, I always find those routes to be intriguing. You look at what he's done recently. He's four top 12 finishes, including that victory at the Corralis over his past six. I think any of the long term data that you run for him may have some flaws. We saw him go a little bit sideways with his form there for a while, but inside of the top 15 for me and my safety ranking, I think when you directly compare him to a lot of these $8,000 golfers, probably one of the best plays on the board in that section. So I have no problems with anybody who wants to play Billy Horschel this week. - Hey, you have it. I love it. Listen, I would have taken him number one. I'm certainly not letting him go past number three. I take him every opportunity you let me take him. He's the best golfer in the world, as well as the number one criminal on tour. Give me Scottie Scheffler. Thank you very much. Listen, am I concerned he could get the show up to court and miss a day of the tournament? Maybe, but not really. I think he puts his arrest behind him this week and gets back to doing what he does best. And that's a win golf tournament, which he's been doing a lot of. Since March, let me look at the exact date for you. 'Cause I don't wanna mess it up, but it's since. So if we go all the way back to, yes. So since March 10, so since March, Scottie has won every tournament he has entered that he did not get arrested in, except for one, which he, in the Houston Open, which he went to extra holes in finish second. So not much needs to be said at 1,300. You know you're getting the best player in the world. I think he bounces back and has a really good result this week. I don't think we need to belabor the point about how good Scottie Scheffler is, but we'll start with you, David. Actually, before we go to you, David, audience, you are on the clock. It looks like picks are coming in. We'll get both of these after we get David's take on Scottie Scheffler this week. - My consumer, Scheffler is weird to say concerned with Scheffler, right? But my consumer, Scheffler comes twofold. One, you can argue he's underpriced. The guy hasn't finished outside the top 10 since January. And with a 5K section that's pretty extensive, I would have expected maybe something around the 14K mark to really try and get some of the ownership of them. And in that regard, we've got 42% ownership on Scheffler this week. So can you make an argument that in the last two weeks, not only is he a brand new father dealing with having a baby in the house, but he's a brand new jail bird as well, and being arrested. And are those two things going to detract from his game at all? - I also think that this is a spot where if you are going to take anyone like Scheffler on, it may be here. You'd see so little reliance on the driver. And I wonder if it's an opportunity to maybe fade in, try and get a little bit different. And instantly your lineups are going to be different because you haven't got Scheffler in them with 42% of all lineups going to be starting right there. So as much as, you know, as I said, he's never, he's not finished outside the top 10 since January. I feel like I'm a fade on Scheffler this week, weirdly enough. And I know that seems bizarre to say, but I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes like something as low as 15th. - I think it's fair enough. I mean, you know, 40 something percent in a tournament with this meeting opposite is absurd. It's absurd ownership. So it's a play you're going to have, or a stance you're going to have to make if you're going to play them. And I think the reason for that is if you look at last week, people who were fading Scheffler last week had options of Brooks Koepka. Rory, Rom, you were fading Scheffler and still getting another elite golfer that you're playing instead. When you look at it this week, the Rory's on it. Rom's on it. Brooks Koepka's on it. Like those aren't options, Sanders not playing. So there's almost a bigger gap from, you know, I mean, more cow is in it, he's been playing well. So more cow is a good golfer. But even if you drop a little more cow, a speed is the third highest ranked golfer. Speed has not been playing great golf this year. So when you start comparing what your other options are, I think that's why the ownership is just really driving up so high is because the top of the board seems a bit weaker. Spence, how about you? Will you be playing Scheffler with that 40% ownership? - I mean, this is a very classic situation of Michael Jordan falling third in the draft with Scotty Scheffler falling third in the draft here. I think from a game theory perspective, and I almost always would blindly give this answer and Scheffler is the one commodity that seems to buck that trend. And that's probably why, you know, it's been more complicated than it should be on whether we're drafting teams on this show or whatever it is. Like I have been lower than consensus, even though Scheffler's number one in my model every single week, it's just, you know, 40% own version of him does convolute the process a little bit of how do you get different. I think it's Scotty Scheffler. If you want to play him, there's routes that you can go. There's ways to get different with your build. I tend to agree with what David said though that it's kind of the common answer I keep giving, but I would probably with everything he has going on in his life right now. And if he's going to be 40% owned, like from a game theory perspective, if we're talking large field tournaments, which is I assume the discussion that we're having right now, I would probably try to go elsewhere and try to take him on and beat him. There's a different discussion to be had if we're talking, you know, you're a hundred man sort of contests where I still think that having Scheffler is probably an advantage in that position. - Thanks, strategy, that totally makes sense. All right, audience, it looks like I got one locked in, oh, two were locked in, audience, great job. Keegan Bradley and Hubbard. Two, I think pretty solid picks here. You're getting two, if your value picks early, two of the upper echelon value picks in my opinion, to start out the squad. How about you, David? Are you on Keegan Bradley or Mark Hubbard? - I do have Hubbard this week and that's a steal from the audience as well. I would have liked to have drafted him here. I mean, look, he was right there in contingent to a bad Saturday, really put pay to his chances at the PJ Championship. And it's kind of a similar answer that I'd like to believe how there. That's not really a great spot for Mark Hubbard. This does shape a lot better. He's also one of the better players in this field around the Greens, believe it or not. So that's also a positive for me this week and a tournament where we are gonna see a disproportionate weighting on chipping. And approach players have done well and particularly that 100 to 200 yard bracket. Given the short nature of this course, you do see very few shots over 200 yards. And that was kind of the pathway for victory last year, here for Greo. He's one of the best approach players from 100 to 200 yards. And Mark Hubbard can absolutely strike it on the part. So I do really like that play. In terms of Keegan Bradley, I was a little bit put off by his ownership for me. I can definitely make the argument there. But in terms of, you know, the fact he's missed the cut finish 32nd here in his two starts. And other comp courses I'm looking at like Habitown and TPC Southwind, he's never really showing up at those. And then given the ownership is probably, probably just thinks Zach's comment. But given the ownership is probably one that I'm gonna be fighting this week. - Oh, all right. How about you, Spence? Are you on Keegan Bradley or Mark Hubbard at all this week? - When we look at what Mark Hubbard's most significant weakness would be, I think we can all say it's his driver. That's an area of his game for me. That ranks 92nd in this field when you look at even weighted total driving here. But I talked about this during my course breakdown. I don't wanna say that it's quite as strong of a answer that I'm giving as this, but there is this zero impact sort of return for almost any driving metric that isn't accuracy related. And I think accuracy is the one thing that it's his ace in the hole that he still has in the top 50 player in my sheet for accuracy. He was one of my outright tickets that I punched early on Monday. I don't know if David would have taken him with the next pick, but I can promise you that if it would have gotten back to me on that two swing turn or the two three swing turn there, I was gonna take Mark Hubbard. So really good pick from the audience there. And Keegan Bradley's ownership has surprised me this week. I thought he was gonna be a contrarian pivot. Maybe that was an optimistic answer after some of the ball striking returns that we saw for him last week. But that ownership is at least, I'm not maybe as strong of being off of him as David would be just because I have him as a top 10 player in my model, but I am starting to have concerns with the ownership that we're getting. And this over the next 24 hours, I'd like to see where that trends before locking that decision in one way or another. - I totally agree with you. If it starts getting too high, you definitely want to pivot, especially because there's a few guys right in that similar price point that I also like that I'd be happy to pivot to. So quick plug, don't forget to sign up for when daily. We will be posting Steven's ownership article that will tell you what the final ownership look like. It's one of the most accurate ownership articles out there. You definitely want that information, especially if you're entering a DP piece, 'cause that's how you get an edge. And actually you have a chance to win some of these big tournaments. All right, with my next pick here, I'm going with Akshay Batia. He disappointed a bit last week, missed the cut of the PGA Championship, was just atrocious with his putter, which I'm willing to forgive as he's not a bad putter or he's been pretty good with his putter this year. I think he can recover, I think he had a bad week. His ball striking numbers were good. That's what we're doing with him. I think he's going to strike the ball well again this week. And if he finds that putter, it makes a few butts. I think he gets a really good result at under 8K, right? And I think he's a guy who, if he wasn't in the mid to high 8K range in this field, that wouldn't have been better than I. So with someone who started off with Scottie Shuffle, I feel like I'm getting a good rob into my bat minute at a price that I could afford here. So with that, I'll ask you, Spence, will you be playing boxy out all this week? - I think it's a good value that you got there. And I do want to circle back as I have a second to talk here. Danny asked the question, it's a good question. What's the breaking point for Keegan's ownership? - For me, and this is just because I am higher on Keegan Bradley than consensus would probably be, even though consensus seems to also be on him. But I think that 15% range, if he goes beyond 15%, I would rather let him beat me. If he's less than that, that's probably the, give or take the break even point, either direction there. - All right, I love it, I love it. How about you, well, go to you David here. Are you playing boxy out all this week? - Yeah, I mean, look, in terms of the positives of Batia, he's one of the best on approach in this field from 100 to 200 yards, where you are going to see the majority of approach shots hit from, he's also just finished 18th at the Harbour Town in a signature event at opposite heritage, which is a correlated course to colonial in terms of smaller greens and treeline fairways, meaning it becomes a very positional test. My question with Batia becomes his driver and that one, his strength tends to be driving distance as a real asset for him, and that's kind of mitigated here. And the fact he's lost on driving accuracy for the last four tournaments now, on a tournament where we are expecting accuracy to be pretty key in terms of success, there would be my cons for him. So in a pleasing aside to that though, his ownership looks to be a lot lower because of a chalky Aaron Ryan next to him. So I did think that that was interesting to note that, obviously gaining eight strokes on approach to the PTA. Well, four, sorry, he only played the two rounds, but gaining a lot on approach to the PTA was obviously a positive in terms of ball striking, but Chris has just come through the driving accuracy for me. A player that I'm going to take here who has no issue with driving accuracy, is Paul Morikawa, who has really hit the straps as of late. He's playing a lot better, spends his sighing, so that's clearly a steal for me. But I mean, he's just finished third at the Masters and fourth at the PGA Championship in much stronger fields. He was ninth at Harvard Town, is 16 to the Wells Fargo, which again, I wouldn't say is there'd be spot for Colin given his lack of driving distance. And we've spoken a bit about Colin and how he was in a rut, particularly with his long lines. But this really does fall into that bracket of 100 to 200 yards for approach, where he's actually kind of maintained his ability to really outplay the field in that regard. He finished second here on debut as well, so finding him back here in some really good form, desperate for when, I kind of like the fact that you're getting a bit of the limit, thousand versus someone who's 2,300 for the next player on the board. - Boom, there you have it. And listen, Colin has been playing really well recently. He's priced up on deservingly, so to me, he's clearly the second best player in the field, and it should be a really good course for him. So there's a lot to like about Colin this week. I think it's a steal of effect for the second round. Spencer, you got two here. We'd love your take on Morikawa, and then where are you going to fall apartment? - The decision I was trying to make, and I was trying to figure out how I wanted to start this lineup, it's, I didn't know if I wanted to go Brian Harmon or Colin Morikawa. I don't think from the sounds of it, I was going to end up getting both either way with it, but I could make a very strong argument. And this is going to be one of the wilder statements I have said on this show, and I'm not going to go as far as to say that anybody should be ahead of Scottie Scheffler, but as everybody knows, that follows my model. It's very in tune with the market a lot of these times. Like you don't have these massive discrepancies that come into play, but one thing I want to say about Colin Morikawa is there are certain ways that I could build my model this week, and this would be much more aggressive approaches to get this outlook, where he is closer to Scottie Scheffler than almost anybody has been over the past six months. It's not to say he's going to beat Scottie Scheffler. It's not to say that he's more likely to beat Scottie Scheffler than Scottie Scheffler is to beat him, but I think if you look at the market, and I didn't end up making this wager, but you can get Colin Morikawa out there. Like it opened up on Monday. Morikawa was in that plus 250 plus 275 range. I'm not looking to fade Scottie Scheffler, but my numbers were closer just to kind of give that answer. I think Morikawa, if you're directly comparing ownership and price tag, if I can save 2,000 plus dollars and get a golfer that's 20% less owned, I will take on Scottie Scheffler with that profile in Colin Morikawa. And that's kind of my answer that I was saving, hoping that I could draft Colin Morikawa myself, but that's one of the reasons why I'm a little bit lower on Scottie, I guess, than the public consensus would be. But with Morikawa off the board, I am now going to have to pivot from my original thoughts here. And I'm gonna go in a direction that's going to be very chalky with these two picks. I understand what I'm getting involved in here. I'm gonna have to figure out a way to deviate the lineups a little bit from there, but I'm gonna start with Sepstraka. One of the categories that I ran in my model that I really liked this week was combining weighted proximity, weighted putting and expected GIR percentage. That is pretty much what everybody's looking at in general, but by adding it together, it gave me a different data point than everyone else while still running the same numbers there. There's one golfer that takes this massive skyrocket inside of my sheet that hopefully I can have that conversation later, I'm gonna wait to go in that direction, but Straco was top five for me in that category. He's gained a minimum of 3.6 strokes with his irons and four of his past five starts. And then he's gained off the T in 10 of 11. So I thought Straco was one of the best values that we could get in this $8,000 section from all the qualities that he's bringing to the mix. And then I'm gonna go with one of the safer commodities from me and the board on the board here. There's a certain portion of ownership and there's a lot of public support for him in the outright market. I did punch an outright ticket on him on Monday. There was this lack of high-end numbers outside of putting that worries me ever so slightly if I'm gonna be paying this ownership. But with David taking more Akawa and for me really not having another way that I wanna go here, I'm gonna take Harris English. We've seen this number as I talked about just in the outright market fall from the 50s into the low 30s now. I keep talking about certain players here who are maybe not the best drivers of the ball, but they're accurate enough off the T that when you give them a short course, I'm hoping that at first of all, finding more fairways helps them, but the lack of proximity numbers that we're gonna get from Harris English, I'm hoping that that can just be kind of looked at as, look at these courses he's playing. There's these major championships in elevated events and Wells Fargo and you have all these tournaments where he's forced to hit his long irons more frequently which is not the strength of his game. I'm hoping that if this is a player who can find a bunch of fairways, put it on the green and then make some putts 'cause he is the number one expected putter for me. So a lot more ownership than I would care to see in this spot, but I still think English from an overall rank perspective is a top six player for me, this tournament. - I love that pick. I always love Harris English, but I think to your point, I think he makes a lot of sense, especially this week in this tournament. It seems he'd be a really good fit for him still playing well. - I also am on Substraka. I think he makes sense, especially in a lot of you're looking to be more balanced. I think his price tag, you can make that work easily. So I think he had two rarely solid picks there. I endorsed both David would love your take on both Harris English and Substraka and then see how you follow up your next pick after you've taken Billy Horshel and Colin Morykaller. - I mean, look, I think Spien's kind of hit the nail on the head there. The consumer with both of them becomes ownership. I'm seeing Harris English pushing like 21%. Do I really want to put that much faith in them? And then Substraka, the same getting a lot of, a lot of heat in the markets. And probably rightly so, because the guy has a ton of upside, we know that he can kind of just pop up with a top 10, top five at any which destination. And given the risk correlation to TPC Southwind, somewhere where he's found success previously, I'd probably prefer the strike play of English just given the ownership numbers. But in saying that as well, all of our line outs are immediately different to yours Joel because we don't have Scottish Heffler. And so as soon as you don't have Scottish Heffler, you're immediately getting ownership leverage as a result of that as long as he doesn't finish like what top three, right? So in that regard to do like both, and English, particularly his short game and putting will be an asset in the windy conditions. - Boom, there you have it. I love it. All right, David, how you follow up your third pick? - You're about 7,500 to spend left. Who are you looking at? - I'm gonna make a surprising statement here. I think it's a surprising statement. I will pay either of you without looking this up, obviously. I'll pay either of you $50 if you can tell me who is the second best field over the last six months for strokes gained around the green. - Who, which golfer has the second most strokes gained around the green over the last six months? - Yeah, number one is Scottish Heffler, obviously. But outside of him, who is the second best around the green in this field? - I'm assuming because you're asking, he's in this field. - He is. - Okay. - I'll say Brendan Todd. - Is incorrect. Although he is top 10, he's eighth. - I'll say, I was gonna say either Seemoo or Denny. - Yeah, Denny is eight, Todd is six. - Can I guess again? - Yes, you can. - For no money this time, real, Hisatsune. - It's also up there, and I do really like him this week, but it's a player right down the bottom of the board at $5,300. She has Revie, who has quietly gained on approach for his last two starts, is yet to lose around the green in 2024. He's previously played well here. He's had a fifth and an 11th. Look, am I expecting she's Revie to go out and finish top 10? Probably not, but for the discount that you're getting on as pricing, you're gonna get him at like 3% ownership. So in terms of the 5K range, I guess that's fairly high, but I think there's far worse spots that you can look at for someone who's gained on approach for his last two, tends to do most of his better work at these kind of fiddly driving accuracy-based courses, finished a lot better last week than he did previously, and has a bit of history here for the guy who's second best in the field for around the green in the last six months on a course which has the highest weighting between around the green and success. I don't mind him at $5,300 if you need to go and find a dumpster diving saver. I'll be honest with you, Chez Revie was not on my radar coming into this, but you kinda talked to me, India, I think you made some good points, and there is a huge value to rostering someone who can get you winning points at only 5,300. So interesting, we love your take, Spencer, you're looking at Chez Revie at all this week. - So without giving all the names away, he is, when I compare my rank compared to their DraftKings price, Revie is the sixth best value on the board, which just means that he should be more expensive, he would be the sixth largest climber if you could move up in the price scale. So he'd be a golfer for me, that would be more in the $6,000 range. So about over $1,000 misprice compared to the number that I have. So based off of that alone, I still think he's a fringe cutmaker one way or another, but if you're talking value in this situation, definitely one of the better values you can find out in this $5,000 section. And it does pair really well for the metrics that he's put together here recently. - Boom, I love it, I love it. Oh, right, with my third pick, I am going to eat a little chalky. I'm going to get chalky, chalky, chalky, mixtape. I'm going to go with one of those guys I referenced. You know, there's a few guys that are going to be pretty chalky in this kind of high 7K range. So you can, depending on how the ownership numbers land, you can kind of pivot based on what that falls on, but I'm going to go with Aaron Ra here. He's at 7900. He's playing really well. I think this is a really good course fit for him, for his game. If you're looking at some of these proximity numbers, he's one of the best with his long irons. 100 to 200. You know, he's striking the ball well. You know, if the ownership gets over 20%, you know, I might shy away right now. I'm looking, my site says 17%, which, you know, is okay. It's good enough. But the ball striking and me around the game, especially at the PGAJ which was really strong. If you can play well around the brain again this week and make a few putts, I think he can certainly get you at top 10. So with that, I will pass it to, we'll start with you, David. Will you be playing Aaron Ryan all this week? - And I would have included Aaron Ryan, my bending tips if one Mr. Ben Coley hadn't included him and just absolutely nosedive to his price. I do like him in this spot as the type of fit that really suits him with a true line for your ways. And obviously the approach metrics under 200 being strengths of Aaron Ryan. My concern, I guess just, and you mentioned this to yourself is coming with the structure of your build now in terms of you've got Scottish Netflix, 42% ownership and then Aaron Ryan is probably gonna be a very popular route for a lot of people to start like Sheffler Ryan and then kind of build from there. So my only question I guess comes, where do you get different later in this lineup? And it would probably involve, I guess, if you were entering the person to a large GPP taking some like real shots and getting extremely uncomfortable and some players later in this draft. - Well, we shall find out. Audience, you guys are on the clock. So you have two, it looks like at least one might be in the only both picks before we get to that specs. Will you be playing, I am seeing now, the audience thinks they may have stolen their pick. Which, you know what? I'm happy to do. If you guys are posting things in the chat, I didn't see it, but even if I did see it too bad, you shouldn't have put it in the chat when it was my pick. So that's why, yeah, part of the draft, it's part of the strategy. You guys gotta get better at that. But specs, Aaron Ryan, you play them this week or not. My model loved Aaron Ryan. Some of the sharper markets seem to be going in the opposite direction of that answer, which always scares me ever so slightly in some of these spots. Like when I put that input inside of my model, Ryan was a very slight decrease or just because my numbers had him as a top 15 expected win equity player before I added that to the mix. I only have him at 12 and a half percent, which is lower than you do Joel. I'm, this might be one of those classic spots where I'm gonna get caught on a player that is moving in the wrong direction in all the areas that I don't wanna see, but I like Aaron Ryan. Like there was enough inside of my model that I'm willing to trust my numbers and data this week. It's tough for me to have a top 15 projected win equity player that we're talking about at 7,800 and not see the upside that's gonna be thrown into the mix there. Boom, there you have it. Audience, we need one more pick locked in but the first one's in and that is C-Beds at the third pick who also helped by saying, I like C-Beds a lot this week. When I pulled up the pricing for the first time this week, I was looking for them. I will also add that I was a little disappointed by how high they priced them, which you know, it could be looked at as a good thing if he's able to kind of maintain a lower ownership because they priced them up. I thought he'd be maybe in the lower 8K range and in that case I would have been hammering him, but in the high 8K range, he's still playable. It'd be in my pool, maybe not as much because of that price tag. Well, start with you, David, on this pick, will you be playing C-Beds? - I mean, look, in positive forum, one of the better options around the green, especially since March, he's been gaining around the green and every single tournament he's heated up. Well, it seems to be that we used to think of C-Beds as one of the best approach players on the tour and he was kind of in model darling off the back of that. He would pop in a lot of models just 'cause his approach numbers were so good. And it seems that we've got a bit of regression in his approach numbers as of late, having lost on approach in three of the four tournaments where strokes gained have been used in his recent starts. And I mean, look, he finished third on the DP wheel to the in-between there. We didn't get strokes gained out of there, but given he finished third, you'd have to expect he probably gained some strokes on approach. But yeah, I guess because of that, he's a little low-weighted for me, especially given the ownership, just because I would have liked to have seen him make some improvements with his approach play as of late sticking to his, you know, one of the strongest aspects of his game. - Boom, there you have it. So there's a second pick in, we don't have a lock. It can be controversial of who the audience second pick actually is here. If I'm looking back at the chat, my gut tells me that it should be, it's either math or HOMA. Anyone want to clarify. Zach is saying HOMA, Zach is the team captain. So HOMA it is, Max HOMA with the fourth pick. You know, the audience's balanced approach is making the roster look, I think, pretty attractive. So I like the look of this kind of balance draft by the audience. You know, I don't think HOMA is playing his best golfer in this field. I think HOMA has plenty of upside. Well, go to you here, Spent. Will you be playing Max HOMA this week? - To me, the way that I built my sheet, I thought there was a big three. I thought it was Sheffler one, Mora Kawa two, HOMA three. This Jordan Spieth Price that we're talking about has a lot to do with this course history and Texas narrative that's coming into play here. But where we're at right now with Sheffler and Mora Kawa being off the board, like I would rather just move up and get Mora Kawa for $600 more. But with that not being a doable chance for the audience, I think HOMA plays just fine here. - Oh, I love it. There you have it. All right, all right. My fourth pick here, I have to get different, but I'm gonna start with Lucas Glover. Lucas Glover has been really playing good golf. He's not a great putter, but he's having some modeling, especially those proximity's of 100 to 200. He's gonna grade out as one of the best. He's been really good around the green. So you're covering those areas that you're looking for on this course. He can't make a putt. I would argue that while this putter is not good, it seems to me that it's improving from really bad to neutral. And if you can get just neutral on this course with the really plus approach numbers and around the green, I think you get a really good result from Glover. So it's 7500, I think that the price is fair, and I think there is some upside here with Lucas Glover. So I like the pick here. I'll ask you for a spend. So we'd be playing Lucas Glover all this week. - I thought Glover was one of the better safety plays, I guess would be the best way to word it inside of my model. He was inside the top 10 for me from a safety rank. You look at what he's done at this course, three top 40s over the last three times playing it, eight in 2021, 23rd in 2020. Recent results are giving you a lot of similar answers to that with just everything since the Valspar landing between 11th to 43rd. I always wonder what his actual upside is when he starts getting a little bit more popular. But my model liked him a lot this week. I kind of think he's a better play potentially as a cash game target than a large field GPP name. But once again, that's an answer where it comes down to what kind of contests are we talking about here? - I agree with you. I mean, give me a good bite. He just hasn't shown the ability to spike with his potter to be, you know, in the midst of these top, these big cornerments. But I think one week he's got to make some pots in the minute. I think this is going to be a week yet. It's a little bit of a gamble, but I think the point is taken well. David, you're up. You got 8,300 per pick left. We'll love your take on Lucas Glover and who you're going with in your fourth bet. - I do like Lucas Glover this week. Really, as you said, hones in on that approach back out of 100 to 200 yards, shorter golf course, where he tends to find a bit more success. And as mentioned, I mean, there is correlation between this golf course and TPC Southwind. Obviously, that's a golf course there. Lucas Glover has also won it. So one year in 2023 and the year before that, he was third on that golf course. And there's a lot of similarities in terms of leadboard crossover between colonial and TPC Southwind. So do really like the Lucas Glover play. And I was actually surprised with his ownership. I thought it'd be higher. I think it's just a nature of some of the numbers around him, some of the other names there are, attracting a little bit of ownership and taking a bit of heed of fun. Glover so really, really do like the fact he's, he looks to be finding the part of getting ever since the Valspar. That's really what's driven those results. I mean, he's gained in four of his last six in terms of putting which for Glover is always a good recipe. So for my next election, kind of thought of a two different kind of routes to go here. Either way, I'm going to need to take Mav McNealy at 7700 to make that work. I do really like what Mav McNealy's been doing lately. Most notably last week, he gained 16% on the field in terms of driving accuracy. Not necessarily the best strength for him, but the fact that he suddenly spiked with that suggests to me that his ball striking is kind of in the right realm and 23rd at a major championship for Mav McNealy is kind of a spike result, right? And obviously finds a weaker field here. We know that Mav McNealy has the talent to go out and win on the PGA to a, had a ninth at TPC at TPC Sawgrass and the players' championship. Really high caliber field, but also a golf course you could argue asks kind of similar questions in a different way. So even though this is tree-lined field ways versus water, you do need to be positional here in order to find success. And I think that is something that's going to suit Mav McNealy. And then his short game is just excellent. Like he is very, very good around the green. Very good with this part. I think that's going to be a huge asset for him this week and love the price that you can get mad at 7700 for a guy that I could quite ECC come and suddenly spike for a top 10. - I agree. I think Mav McNealy is trending in the right direction. He gets a savvy pick here in the fourth round. Spence would love your take on Mav McNealy and then you got two. - Yeah, I think it's a good value for Mav McNealy inside the top 25 of my model from an overall rank, value against his outright number, value against his DK price, value with the ownership. So it's blew across the board inside of my sheet, which is always nice to see in the $7,000 range. As I'm moving to my pick, I'm trying to figure out how out of control we actually want to get here or how safe I'm going to want to play this. I mean, I guess in either stance that I take, it's going to get volatile one way or another with it. Well, I'll start with the name that my model thought was one of the best values and then I'll move through there and try to make my next pick. I'm going to go down the board into the $6,000 section. There was a golfer for me that really popped any way that I ran my sheet this week. And that was Justin Lauer at $6,400. I talked earlier when speaking about Stravka, about there being this massive climber in my sheet. When you combine that weighted approach play putting in GIR totals, he ended up jumping inside the top five of this tournament for me in that area. He's delivered four starts with top 28 finishes in a row. And if I keep calling this quote unquote, a pitch and putt contest, even though it doesn't necessarily look like that on paper, this is one of those long shot options that puts that pitch and putt better together than really anybody in my sheet that's not named Tom Hoege there. So I bet I'm at 200 to one. I thought that was a price that was really interesting. I bet him is a top 40 at plus 190, another area that I thought there was value. And I know the ownership is starting to ramp up a little bit. He is one of the more popular guys that you can find in this $6,000 section. But I think it's rightfully so. He's the best value that I have on the board this week of any golfer that we've talked about at all and any golfer in the tournament. So I'll let you guys talk about that for a second. And then I'm going to try to figure out what my next pick is. I'll be honest, I thought I was going to be able to sneak him in with my next pick. I didn't think he would go there. I was planning to take Justin Lower's. I was going to ram his out. So right now I am scrambling to find another golfer in that similar price range to replace in my lineup. So long story short, I agree. And for the reasons you said, the ball striking has been there, the results more recently have been there. He's playing really good golf. I think the only concern that I would have on him this week is how high does that ownership creep up? If it does get started getting closer to 15%. I think that is getting a little too high. But I think anything under 15% for me and 15 for him is really high. So it shouldn't sound to 15%. I'm going to play him. How about you, David? Will you be playing lower at all this week? - Yeah, I mean, look, I agree with Spencer in terms of the approach matrix. Lower is really sad to find that again. And it's one of the areas that is a string through his game. This is approach numbers kind of is very similar to Tom Hargi as Spencer mentioned. Where his approach numbers can really be off the charts. And similar to Tom Hargi as well. And my concern comes with the fact that he does struggle around the greens a bit. So on a course where that does get way to quite highly this week for me, that would be the concern. On the flip side, I mean, he's $6,400, right? And so that's where you're getting the saving as you are taking risk in terms of he's going to need to find something better with his chipping and his bunker play in order to be successful this week. But on the flip side, you're getting a massive ton of salary saving off the back of it for a guy who can be one of the beta bull strikers in this field as a result. So do like as well, he gets morning tea time on Thursday which looks to be the beta of it with rain coming in Wednesday should soften up conditions for those playing Thursday morning. - Boom, there you have it. All right, Spence, you got one more. Who are you looking at here? - This is where the lineup is about the crash in burn. I already see it happen before I make the pick. And I'll just be very open and transparent with my thought process here. So there's a very popular player in Austin, Echo that my model likes this week. I wish this could have been a spot that I could have probably just taken the best of both worlds and taken Lucas Glover if he was available. But then on the flip side, there is the biggest boom or bust commodity that I have in my entire model where the ceiling outcome for him essentially turned him into a top five win equity player at his very best. The floor pushes him all the way back like beyond any of his players that we're gonna be looking at here. I made this argument for this golfer at the RBC heritage that I think that sometimes when you get these courses that are a little bit longer and then you go to a course like heritage, a lot of those things that were causing you problems end up being better. He gained nine strokes at the heritage with his short game to just completely mask anything that I'm saying there. The form has been bad. He's been extremely volatile. I understand all of these answers. This is a golfer that's averaged negative 1.60 strokes T to green over his last five starts. I'm gonna shoot for the upside here. There's probably a safer way I could have played it primarily with the last name I was gonna take here. I'm gonna take JT post in and just hope that what I have seen recently can be turned around at a shorter course. I don't necessarily expect anybody to like this play, but I know what I'm signing up for here because I do think that the ceiling potential for him, like if I'm directly comparing these two, it's a 50/50 proposition between Echbrot and Posten of who's gonna finish better. And when one of them finishes better, Posten is the one that pops in my model. One's 15%, one is sub seven and a half percent. I'll get a little bit different here with Posten for the sake of the show. But as I said, I know what I'm signing up for here. This has the potential to just blow up in my face. - You know, I don't hate it. I don't hate it at all. He certainly has pedigree and the talent to do well here. So I understand your concerns, but I don't hate the pick. David, you got your fifth year. We'd love your take on Justin Posten and then see where you're going with plenty of money to spend in your last two pits. - Yeah, I'm probably a fade on JT Posten this week, just off the back of him losing on approach for three tournaments, Drake. But that's exactly kind of what Spencer's talking about. That there is a bit of risk that comes with him here. Fifth of the at Harvard town, despite losing on approach or be it minimally, was obviously pleasing given that there is correlation to this golf course he's also finished through with their privacy as well. And he does have a 10th and a 20th year, although he has missed four cuts here previously as well. So yeah, look, not the worst play. I probably prefer him over air code as Spencer's saying, just because you're getting like 8% ownership versus like 15 for air code. So there is an ownership discount for Posten over in there, but probably other options within that range that I personally would be going to, as Spencer mentioned, the majority of those have been taken off the board with the likes of McNealy, Hubbard, Glover, probably in that range. And I assume that Spencer probably would have preferred in that spot. All right, all right. So I'll keep the draft rolling and I've got two kind of routes. I'll be just like quite transparent here with what my thinking was. One route was going, Dean McCarthy and Chris Cook. I think that probably is the safer play if I was going like a cash game kind of lineup. Both I speak will make the card and both I speak to play well. Dean McCarthy's short game obviously an asset in Windy conditions. Chris Cook does well at these driving accuracy type courses can really spike on approach. He's had a really good year overall of see with winning of the century, but he is a past champion here as well. He has won on this golf course. So there was one route I was considering, but there's one golfer that I just really want to take this week and it's a deep deal to a darling, usually a darling of Joel's team as well on a many occasion. And that's Rio has sat in a at 70 100. I'm really glad I took him because the wins from Joel just confirms that he was looking to take him. So there's another steal from me, which I always like to get a few of those in the bank on the draft cast. Look, he just played so well at the PGA Championship, showed up finished 18th at the golf course. That really doesn't suit him. It's far too long. He does bet on these accuracy type tests. You know, he won at Legolf National at the Open to France. A test that kind of similar like Christians, but not the same answer if that makes sense. Like, sorry, same answer, but doesn't ask it in a different way. So Legolf National is like dotted with a bunch of water and you have to find fairways in order to be positional often avoiding like lakes and heading to the right side of the fairway in order to give yourself the best access to the greens. And Colonial does the same thing in a different way. It's got treeline fairways, which can mean that with overhanging trees, if you're in the wrong spot on the fairway, you can really limit yourself. And the satin is driving actually is really what is most appealing to me. I've spoken about previously that he's been touted as kind of a next kind of Tom come to come from one of these international tours and spike on the PGA tour. But 18th last week at the PGA Championship, obviously very eye-catching. And then he was 13th in McKinney, Texas, just a couple of starts ago as well. So he's been a Texas P degree recently as well. So I think he's very, very good value and just kind of leave him out of the draft cast and even sweeter to get a steal from Jolby. - Yeah, that was definitely a steal. This round is not going well from me. I don't know who the heck I'm going to pick here. I love Rio, definitely want to take him. You know, he cooled off a little bit more early in the year, but more recently he's found that magic again with two top 20 finishes in his last two starts. I think this is a talented guy that is a better golfer is more getting used to playing in these tournaments. I think you're going to see more of the, more of the better results moving forward. So while he's still priced down here at 70 100, I think it's a great pick to steal him while you can. - Spends while I scramble and trying to figure out a new route to do with these last two picks. We'd love your take on Rio. - I think as a show as a whole, when you look at all of us, we've all probably been higher on him than public consensus would be. It's a good spot to take him here. Inside of the top 40 of my model for safety is $7,100 golfer, you're going to have value there. I only see 5% ownership. We are starting to see some of that form come back that we all loved about him leading into the season that got lost there up until I would say probably the Byron Nelson where everything started to turn around. Big time for him, even maybe a little bit before that. But I think it's a good play. - All right, there you have it. I am still scrambling in full honesty, but I think I'm locked in here. I'm going to start with, and figure out where I'm going to go from here after. Once I was with Andrew Putnam. Andrew Putnam has been playing good golf more recently. He's really strong around the greens and scrambling. Last week, he didn't have his best week on approach, but if you don't remove last week, he lost his stroke. He's gained his strokes on approach and almost two at the Wells Fargo, almost two at the RBC. He gained five strokes at the Valero. He can make putts. His driver is not his best weapon, but I think he can minimize some of those issues on this course. So I think Putnam will provide you a lot of upside and will help in that I do have some chocolate players and I don't see huge ownership. And he's not, you know, unknown for sure, but I shouldn't be major ownership. So I'm going to stick with Putnam here. Audience, you got two, you're on the clock. So feel free to start putting your picks in. We'll look for the lock while I didn't see where they go, but I'll ask you, Spencer, will you be playing Andrew Putnam? - I think Putnam's kind of like a discount bazade in health. Bazade in health. You're going to get less ownership. You're going to save $1,500 give or take with it. I think Putnam's an intriguing play down in this section. I have him maybe higher ownership than you do right now, Joel, like that would be my one concern, but my model liked Putnam this week. - What old were you for using? - I have him over 15% right now and it's been moving up every single time I've been running it. - Yeah, over 15%, you know, in a GDP, I would pivot. I don't want to play Putnam at over 15, but I would keep him as a goal for me personally. Under 12, I would still play him. So that would kind of be my breaking point in terms of ownership. How about you, David, are you on Andrew Putnam this week? - Yeah, just a reminder, the audience, you guys are on the clock, you'll need to get sagging some selections and otherwise we'll defer to Spencer to make some picks for you guys. But yeah, Putnam, for me, I do get a bit concerned about the ownership. I'm seeing 13 and a half percent. I think that the one thing that's kind of keeping him in cheek a little bit is the fact that you've got e-croat there who's going to be extremely popular, why I'm getting over 16% on e-croat and does think that a little bit of it is going that way. And I guess that the structure of taking sheafler and Ryan Putnam, I think that's a recipe a lot are going to follow in terms of building a lineup this week. So on the flip side, he's played here six times, he's missed the cut twice and outside of that, he's finished 29th, albeit in every other start, echolonial, so he has kind of boomer bust in that regard and it does seem to be a spot then in terms of like the metrics of his game and what he does well, the chipping, the parting, the driving, the accuracy, this would like kind of recipe for Andrew Putnam to generally find some success. - Ooh, I love it, I love it. All right, audience, at least one is in the echo, Austin, echroat, who's been playing really well, the combination of course fit in ownership, I won't be playing echroat this week. I think people might be overracking to a good result last week. I don't think it's the best course fit for him and if the ownership goes high, I would look somewhere else. But he's done well and at 75 hundred, I can understand why you like him. But we'll go to you, David, do you like Austin echroat this week? - I'm a fade on echroat this week and it's chiefly because he's lost on approach for four of his recent starts where we've actually had strokes getting data recorded. He finished a lemth of the Zurich, but I mean, that team event's just so freaking weird. It's hard to tell who's actually contributed what in that circumstance and after the back of that, I'm a fade just given the very high ownership and the fact that he's been losing approach lately. On the flip side, he does tend to be more accurate than a distance kind of player. So in that regard, it seemed to suit, but the round of green I think could be a problem for him. He's one of the weaker round of his field for his champion. - All right, the second pick for the audience is Grayson Sig, 69 hundred. Another one who, from your salary, I understand why you take him. He's not going to be my player pool this week. Would love your take on Sig's Spencer. - I do not think he will be in my player pool either. He has a little bit of upside in my model when I ran it from a more volatile stance. 80 seconds for me overall though, like he still barely cracked the top 60 when I ran it for upside. I think when we're looking at ownership and you don't really have that many players that are very highly owned outside of Lauer in this section, but I have him over 4% right now. That's one of the higher totals. And I don't know if you're necessarily getting the upside that you would necessarily want. For a guy who has gone miscut, miscut at this tournament. So probably a little bit too volatile for me to want to pick here at 69 hundred. - All right, all right. So we're going to move this along. Audience, your team's a wrap, really solid, balanced build. I think you guys should be able to compete. We'll see it if those last two picks hold up. For my last pick, I'm going to take Spencer's boy, I think he's a UNLV guy, Ryan Moore. Ryan Moore can't make a putt to save his life. So I guess my team is kind of turning into a little bit of a team no putt. But other than that, I think the metrics actually work out really well for Moore is ball striking in terms of the proximity numbers should do well here is around the green game makes sense. Ryan Moore had a stretch this year where he was playing pretty good golf and competing. He's cooled off more recently, but it's really almost solely the putter. And the putter has been really, really bad. So obviously you're going to need that to turn around, but historically he's had, he's not always been a terrible putter. I think it's something he can turn around, but that's the rest. But I'm going to have to take it at 58 hundred with a Ryan Moore selection. Spence, since he's your boy from UNLV, will you be playing Ryan Moore this week? Joel, that's the best pick of the entire draft. Running revs all day. My model always likes him though, like all jokes aside with it. Like, I don't know what his actual upside is at this part of his career right now, but it always puts him as this fringe top 60 to 50 sort of player for all these events, maybe a little bit more on than I would like to see. But when we get into this $5,000 section, there's very few options for me that were a value. Like Martin Layard is a value for me. Ryan Moore, this is not counting ownership, is a value for me. We talked about the reevee answer that was given. Like outside of that, there's really not that many other options to talk about. So I think you have to pick and choose Ben Martin would be another one just to throw out another name in there. But there's very few options that actually graded as a value for me. So he's one of the few that did. - Makes sense. All right, David, you got one left. Would love your take on Ryan Moore and with 10K to spend, how are you rounding out your spot? - Yeah, Ryan Moore's an interesting one for me. And I think the thing that like shakes me the most is that Joel actually had enough salary to go get Sam Ryder here, who is like his favorite player on the PGA tour and basically every draft and then chose not to. So that's probably the thing that shakes me the most with the selection. But I also like Martin lead there just quietly. I think he's pretty decent in the wind. I mean, he's finished 10th here twice before and can be good around the greens. The Christian really becomes on approach for him and playing the driving actually though. And I think he's an interesting spot who's gonna get like one and a half percent ownership I'm seeing in the moment. And Ryan Moore's at like 3.2, 3.3, depending on which projection models you're using. So you can get a little ownership discount if I go Martin leave here. - If I can just add to that really quickly before you make your pick David, I think layered is the route to like I kind of alluded to that. He is the only player for me in the $5,000 range that ended up grading inside of the top 50 of my model. He was 39th overall, which is a very good output for him to have there. Like that's, that is one of those large discrepancies that I'm always trying to find. So I agree with you there. I will let you go back to your pick. I just wanted to add that. - Yeah, interesting. I mean, as soon as something spikes and spins his model, there's probably something that we should be paying a package attention to and Aaron Rasmus in the chat just throwing straight shade at Martin Lear. Am I quite quite like that? Yeah, look, if I had the ideal situation, I would take Brian Harman here and leave some money on the table. That's obviously been taken from me. This means taking them with the number one pick this week. So look, I'm gonna go and spend most of my salary. I'm gonna take Tony Finn out here. Do I love him this week? Probably not. He did gain a ton of strokes on approach last week. And in the positive for him, in his last eight tournaments, he's actually been at field average for putting all slightly above in six of his eight, last eight starts. And that for Tony Finn out kind of is the recipe to finding some successes. What can he do with his put it? We know that the approach game is just like absolutely there to tear apart any feel that he comes up against. But the fact that the putt is kind of turning around a little bit is really positive. And the fact he's finished second, fourth, 20th and 23rd here previously. And in 19th, if you want to go all the way back to 2015, he's found some good success at this golf course. So probably would have preferred to have taken Brian Harman and like the Leafs 700 on the table. But I'll take Tony Finn out as a very happy substitute instead. And I think I've got plenty of win equity now in my lineup with Cheez Revey just kind of needing to make a cut and make this lineup viable. - I think that female pick here makes plenty of sense. Spence would love your take on the female pick. And then you got one with 9200 remaining. - Probably the best way that David could have closed his lineup with everything available. He talked about Harman being the route that he would prefer. I would obviously taking him at the 101 in this draft. I would also take Harman there. But I like the way that he closed it. I think this is a lot of win equity on his team like he talked about. Now, for my pick, it comes down to one of two decisions. And before I make this decision, I want to hear what kind of ownership you guys have in this spot. And maybe I am missing something here. But there's one route where I could leave a substantial amount of money on the table. Leave a thousand bucks on the table and take Tom Kim. I think that's a route that I don't mind going. This is a nice setup for him inside of my model. The other way, and this is a player that nobody is going to be on this week, at least from the ownership that I see, what ownership do you guys currently have right now on Adam Scott? - I see only about 4%. - I see three, just under three, 2.8 if you want to get tickled with it, which I think is a factor of his price more than anything. Like I think he is quite clearly overpriced. - I would agree with that. But I don't think he's as massively overpriced as, the market will tell you he's a massive underdog to every single player that's anywhere near him in price. Like he is trending in the wrong direction, his outright numbers moving in the wrong direction also. And there's this general idea that it's being had that because he's overpriced, he is not an option that people want to take on. Maybe there is this lack of upside that I am missing here. But when we're talking about my ownership versus model rank, there was a pretty big disparity between Adam Scott being the largest discrepancy I had and everybody else beneath him. Martin Layard would be a name for all the reasons I just talked about when you get lower on this board. But I think I'm going to just get super contrarian here. And this is also a route, like if you are to play a Scotty Scheffler, if you can find a way to get Adam Scott into that, build somehow you're already different just based off of that. But I think this is an over-correction in the public assessment of this. I understand if you pull all of these metrics for Scott off the tee, the inaccuracy is going to drive people in the other direction when you already think he's overpriced. But he's ninth in my model off the tee at average to difficult hit fairways. He's 22nd in my model off the tee at short courses. You add all that together, even with the inaccuracy that placed an 86th overall and he loses a lot of that driving distance that I do have in my sheet. The 15th overall projected total driver for me, weighted proximity, leaves a couple of questions to be answered there, but 12th for me overall, climbed in my model when I was trying to find that volatile output with it. And at 2.82%, which is what I have David ownership, I feel like this is just such a unique way that nobody's going to want to play them. And I'm a little confused by the markets moving in the other direction because my math actually likes them this week. - Boom, there you have it, I love it. That's a wrap for the draft. Let us know what line you think you're going to win. Vote for your favorite. We will crown a winner next week and do it all over again, but we're not done yet. Before I let you guys go, hit the like button, give us a follow, it goes a long way. Don't forget to sign up for win daily. You will make your money back in one tournament. We have been making some fire picks this year, but not only that, you get access to our articles, you got our ownership articles, we have you weather updates. So as we get closer to the tournament, if there's any weather edge, you will know about it. You also got our outright tickets. So who are we betting on the outright markets? We'll discuss them at all in Discord. Without further ado, for tonight, we will be giving you our first round leaders. And we're going to start with David tonight. Who are you targeting in the first round leader market? - Yeah, just very quickly on Adam Scott, just to touch on Spencer's last pick there. I think part of the concern for him comes with not just the price, but with the fact that in six tournaments he's lost putting in five of them. On the flip side, the one time he gained putting, he won the tournament here. So there is that upside and you're getting him like no ownership. So very, very tough to get to Adam Scott, if you've got Scotty Sheffler within your build. It was a good week for the first round leaders last week. We had Seth for Gala right there in contention, end up running up third after the first round there. So cast to top five, both Sia and myself included him in our first round leader packs over at Windaley Sports. So make sure you check the link in the description for just to find out everything that we do over there and what the business is all about. I've got five this week. Starting with the shortest of those is Kolomor Kaur at 25 to one. I do think there is going to be an edge to the morning. Kolomor Kaur has been playing some great golf and the fact that his win odds are 12 to one. You're getting 25 to one on the first round leader. It's been a recipe that we've seen lately that has proven pretty successful with Rory McElroy's and Sheffler to those kind of key names who have been right up there and could teach enough to the first round. So 25 to one, I think it's generous on Kolomor Kaur to lead after the first round. The other four are all 50 to one or longer. And I did want to get some exposure to Danny McCarthy. So I've got him at 50 to one and Aaron Wright at 60 to one. That number hasn't moved as quickly as his outright number. His outright number did dive after he was selected by ones who were being Colley. So the fact that he's still 60 to one of the first round leader markets gets a morning tea time. I could see him spiking there. Brendan Todd who we mentioned on the show at 80 to one, I think he's a reasonable value to go out. Can't see him like seeing out the entire tournament but he's kind of play who can spike with a putter for one round and go out and shoot something really low. And mentioned on the show, taken by me at 5,300, you get to share his RV to be the leader after run round at 190 to one. It is a bit shorter than his winnolds of 300 to one but I'm happy to take him over one round in the pretty volatile market for a player who's playing well and he gets a morning tea time. - I love it, I love it. How about you spent, who are you looking at in the first round leader market? - I'm gonna double down on that Colin Morikawa answer at 25 to one. I took step struck at 50 to one and I'm going to play JT post and at 75 to one like this is probably the best market of any of them. If I like JT post in this week that he could potentially spike there. So it'll be those three options. - Boom, I'm gonna jump on that train with you. We're all right in Colin Morikawa. I also have been in a weird trend that like I remember he served me correctly. I think two of the last three tournaments, the first round leader was the second leader in the betting market. So here it is again, second leader in the betting market. I think it makes sense from there. I'm also gonna add to that Scottie Scheffler. I think taking the best player in the first round leader market just makes sense because you get better as you do in the full week. I think Scottie Scheffler can come out hot in the beginning, even a 12 one. I like that number. My favorite first round leader play though is none other than Justin Lauer at 110 to one. I think this is a week you can take a shot in a long shot. I like the metrics. I think he can show up and have one hot round and be your first round leader. If you want to get some 100 to one juice, you can go after that there. And my last first round leader play is going to be Tom Hoguey at 50 to one. I'm surprised he didn't get mentioned on the show. He might be a little overpriced for DFS purposes, but a first round leader market at 50 to one for him. It seems like a spot that could do really well. He also seems to do well in first round since the spike game tournament. So I like that play there. That's a wrap for tonight. Having some fun this week at the Charles Schwab down in Texas. Don't forget to hit the like button, follow along. We'll be back next week. Did I forget anything? - I do like the Justin Lauer call. I'll add that very quickly. You can even find him at 125 to one if you shop around. That'll be the fourth name that ends up making my card. So I'm going to tell you on that one, Joel. - I love it. I love it when we're all in sync. That tells me that a winner is coming and sports. - When it comes to jeans, it's not enough to fit like a glove. No, they got to fit like a pair of blue daltas. 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The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Charles Schwab Challenge First Round Leader picks! Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex) and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into this week's tourney....
