The Duran Podcast
Putin & Lukashenko prepare for NATO escalation
All right, Alexander. Let's talk about Putin meeting with Lukashenko. I believe we're going to get some more tactical nuclear drills going on. It doesn't surprise me, given the rhetoric that is coming out of the United States, especially from from Lincoln about US weapons being used to attack inside of Russia. So it looks like Putin is going to start, the Russian government is going to start sending signals and warnings to the United States in much the same way that they sent signals and warnings to the UK and to France. One of the warnings that they sent to the UK and France was calling in the ambassadors to the foreign ministry and outright telling them that if they continue to escalate, well, Russia is going to retaliate. So the US, I imagine, is not going to take into consideration anything that the Russian government says. So where are we heading in all of this? Obviously, Putin is game planning things out with Lukashenko and with Belarus. Where are things heading towards? We're heading towards an ever greater and more dangerous crisis, just to say that first. But let's just talk about, look, Putin's visit to Minsk. Now, Putin and Lukashenko meet continuously. I mean, they have one meeting after another. Why is this one different? Well, the answer is it's very different. And I explained why. Firstly, it's the second trip Putin has made since he was re-inaugurated president of Russia. So first, he went to China and then he went to Belarus. That signals who are the two most important countries for Russia at this moment in time. One, obviously, the mighty superpower on the Eastern border, the other, the fraternal Slavic ally on the Western border. So it's that in itself tells you a great deal about the importance of this visit. The second thing to say about this particular visit is that it's not just a visit. It is a state visit. He's going there in the ceremonial role of a head of state, going to a friendly ally, a friendly country. Belarus, obviously, he's going to have a summit meeting with Lukashenko. Well, over the course of a state visit, you can be absolutely sure that there's going to be lots of agreements signed and agreed and all sorts of things taking place. And some of the people who accompanied Putin on his state visit to China are coming with him on this state visit to Belarus. One of them, importantly, is Andre Bellosov, who is, of course, Russia's newly appointed defence minister. Now, when I go to suggest it's going to happen this, we're going to have meetings and discussions, which obviously partly are intended to counter this absolutely calamitous threat that the US is coming from the US of green lighting direct Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using US weapons. Some of these weapons almost certainly will not will require the assistance of US advisors. So US attacks, in effect, or US assisted attacks on the territory of Russia, a superpower, something which has never happened, by the way, at any time since the end of the Second World War. We've never had a city. We've had proxy wars between the superpowers before. We've had situations where soldiers from the superpowers have fought each other in the territories where these proxy wars are being fought. But this is going to be the first ever time that I know of, where, over the course of that proxy war, one side is assisting the other, who's assisting its proxy to conduct attacks on the national territory of the other superpower. That breaks a convention that has existed ever since the end of the Second World War, and which has been considered sacrosanct. It tells you how far some people in the Biden administration are prepared to go, and of course it opens up terrifying possibilities. But anyway, this idea is now being floated. The Russians are obviously reacting. They're mending their fences. They're making sure that their fences are secure. Putin goes to Belarus, the whole series of important agreements, and the fact that Belarus is there strongly points to the Russians and the Belarusians now working towards unifying their respective military industrial complexes. Now, the thing to understand is that the military industrial complex in Belarus is actually quite big. It played a very big role in the Soviet military industrial complex, but Belarus had strong heavy industries. There's the Mars works, for example, which produces powerful trucks. We used to do that for the Soviet military. There's talks that Belarus might become involved in aerospace, so that it might become start manufacturing Sukhoi 25, ground attack aircraft, things of that kind. Now, if the Russians and the Belarusians are prepared to start taking those kind of steps, which they will, because both of them feel under intense pressure from the US, it is inevitable that there will be elements of political integration moving forward as well. I wouldn't myself be entirely surprised if we see the first discussions about setting up a single currency for trade between these two countries, just saying. So, this is going to be a major meeting, and it's very much part of the preparation for not just, it's not just a cold war that we're in, but for this major crisis in international relations. A Cuban missile crisis, two plus, which is now on the horizon. Yeah, well, maybe even a hot war. I mean, or by myself talking about how NATO is preparing for war. Yes, yes. And he's even saying that Hungary might have to reconsider its position in NATO. He didn't say its membership in NATO, as I understand it, but that's clearly what's position. It's position. I mean, that's clearly what he's hinting at. So, as I said, we are looking at a very, very tense and situation as well. And it was what's driving everything, continues to be the war in Ukraine. And I've been reading articles today in the British media, even by people like Timothy Gartanash, somebody who's a fervent supporter of Ukraine, who speaks about Ukraine being on the ropes. And he's just returned from there, and he's been told by Ukrainian officers that morale in the army is sinking and morale in the country and sinking. We all can see that. And the situation that goes from bad to worse in many places right across Ukraine. And this, I think, is creating a very dangerous situation. Indeed, the Swedish military leader, the chief of the Swedish military military officer, has said that there is no way that the West can keep up with Russia in military production. The British are now saying that they believe that China is actually now starting to help Russia by providing actual weapons, what weapons are on wonders to Russia. I don't believe that, by the way, but talking in that way, just talking as if something like that is happening makes it more likely eventually that it will. Anyway, you can see that both sides are preparing their positions for the major blow that is to come. Yeah, I wonder sometimes if Europe is talking up a hot war with Russia in order to keep the grift going or if they're talking themselves into an actual hot war with Russia. I wonder if they realize that they're talking themselves into a hot war with Russia. Because you get statements like our bonds that he made and then where he said that they're preparing for war. And on the same day, I think you had Stoltenberg or maybe it was someone in the German government, I forgot, but they said there's no way that NATO is going to enter the conflict. You get those statements all the time though. There's no way that NATO is going to enter the conflict in Ukraine. So you get all of these mixed messages. My hunches that they are, look at their actions. Their actions are saying that they want to enter the conflict in Ukraine. They're trying to find ways, they're trying to find ways to enter the conflict in Ukraine, but they can't find it. Because to enter the conflict in Ukraine, you're going to have to produce the weapons, you're going to have to put the military together and they just don't have that. That's exactly correct. I mean, it's a point, by the way, that was made by Jeff Roberts in that discussion, which has just been published, we've just published on the Duran, that the one with Matthew Blackburn and Glendesen, which is the point is that Western armies are too weak to take on the Russians in Ukraine and they know it. So they're not prepared to do that. They don't prepare to risk it. But they talk always in the way as if they're prepared to do it. And then you get this golden voice, it's like Olaf Scholz saying, you know, nowhere we can. It was Olaf Scholz. No way are we going to do this. No way is the EU going to acquire nuclear weapons. He almost gives the impression in recent statements that he makes, that he now wants to jump ship, having taken Germany all the way to the point of the waterfall where it's about to collapse over. He's suddenly getting butterflies. And Parvel in the Czech Republic, also suddenly saying after being an extreme hardliner, let's actually talk peace, let's try and find a way, a way to settle with the Russians. But at the same time, all this talk about providing Ukraine with missiles and allowing it to use them in attacks deep inside Russian. So the rhetoric points in two directions. I think my own view is that in the end, they'll look at this, they'll think about it. They'll talk about it with each other. But they won't go the full step. They won't go the full way. They don't want to go into Ukraine and be defeated. And they don't want to find themselves in a nuclear escalation, a nuclear war. But I'm not absolutely sure. And until that point is reached, they're going to still be dragged along by the hardliners amongst them who will go on insisting on more and more escalation, like this utterly reckless idea of launching missile strikes against Russia, which the Russians will respond to. I mean, even if they're American, I mean, and the Russians have all kinds of ways that they could respond to this. They might not respond against against the British when they call the British in. They made it fairly clear that we're prepared to respond against your territory also. I mean, that was clearly set out there. I don't think the Russians would respond against the continental United States. They're absolutely sure they wouldn't. But there are thousands of hundreds of American bases scattered all over the world. The United States is involved in conflicts with all sorts of people. The Russians are perfectly capable if their own territory is attacked of assisting some of these actors from the U.S. is in conflict with in attacking American bases. And they could get themselves plausible deniability just as the Americans are going to hide behind plausible deniability over Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. The Russians could do the same. But it would be very difficult for the United States. And how does the United States protect itself right across the world where it's got so many bases? This is a terrible idea. But if the Americans and the Russians are starting to do the sort of thing to each other, the risks of escalation are enormous. And the rhetoric from people like Lindsey Graham is going to be off the scale. And there's a huge risk, a very real risk, but despite what I believe that in the end, you know, councils of, you know, not wisdom exactly, but of self-preservation will ultimately prevail. Well, you know, there's a very risk that they won't. And that, you know, the Lindsey Grahams and people like that will get that way, in which case, well, heaven's nose, what? Yeah, I agree with you. And going back to Europe, the French and the British, it seems like they've backed off a bit with regards to striking a Russian territory. But, but they continue to target Crimea. They continue to go after Crimea. And no doubt about it. Sooner or later, storm shadow and scalp missile storm shadow being the UK, scalp being France, it's going to be launched into into Russian territory. Bel Gaudaud is Russian territory pre 2014. Yes. It's going to, it's going to happen. I believe we're going to see it. We're going to see scalp and storm shadows. Yeah, I agree. I agree. I agree. These these towns and villages. Yes. What happens next? Well, because, you know, and I'm saying this all the time and we've said it, Crimea seems to be an exception. And I still don't know why. I still haven't figured out what exactly is going on there. But what happens when the storm shadows or the scalps are, are fired towards Bel Gaudaud, or any other city in the border? I don't think there's any mystery about this. The Russians will respond in the way that they've said they said so. I don't think that we should disregard what the Russians say. I think whenever the Russians actually impose a red line, like this one, they act on it. That has been the consistent story. I know a lot of people think otherwise. But as I pointed out repeatedly, what people say when they say that red lines have been crossed, Russian red lines have been crossed, and the Russians haven't reacted, is that they've not actually been Russian red lines. They have been Western red lines, red lines that the West has imposed upon itself, and then attributes to the Russians. The Russians this time have made it absolutely clear what they're going to do. And I've no doubt they will do it. Again, they might not attack the national territories of Britain and France. They've said that it's an option. But again, there are lots of British and French assets around the world that they could assist attacks upon. And I can very easily imagine that happening. I mean, this protest in New Caledonia, which is a French Pacific territory going on at the moment. There are French troops there. Again, there's all kinds of things the Russians could do if they took, if they put their mind to it. And you can try and control this up to a point. But the British, the French, the Americans, will know perfectly well who is behind all of this. And eventually, it's bound to leak into the media. And then, of course, as I said, the Lindsey Grahams of the United States. And we've got plenty people like that in Britain. And I've no doubt that some of them also exist in France. They will all be there talking and, you know, demanding that extreme action be taken in retaliation. So we're going to have a lot of this going on. And this is this is a very dangerous moment in this conflict. I think you're quite right. The British and the French have backed off. They're now waiting to see what the Americans are going to do. If the Americans go down this path, as night follows day, the British and the French will follow. And then, as I said, you know, everything or hell breaks out. We're not just in a proxy war in Ukraine. We are in a conflict which quite plausibly is going to go global. Yeah, that's what worries me. Yeah. The Biden, Biden White House is going to give the green light for the eventually. There are, I think they've already given it. And I think everything that we're seeing right now is just preparing us for what's about to come. Very, very close. Decided. Yeah. Weeks ago, maybe months ago, this was decided. Very close. Like maybe back in the autumn when it was first mooted. I mean, you know, I mean, I can remember a lot of discussions about this very idea taking place then. So quite plausibly, it's been, it's been already green lighted. I mean, what the fundamental problem. There's a article about this by Seymour Hirscht that appeared yesterday. The president himself is obsessed with Putin and with Russia. And he always ends up going with with the most extreme hardliners who demand the most extreme escalation. And that will probably go on happening so long as he remains in the Oval Office. Yeah, he's absolutely obsessed with Russia and Putin. There that there's no doubt about. But once you get to to the point where the US green lights, the use of weapons to hit Russia territory, 100% the UK and France will then forget about everything that Russia warned them about. And they'll start launching the storm shadows and the scalps into Russian territory. And then the Russians retaliate. And then you're going to get the hawks in the US, in the UK and in France demanding further escalation. Absolutely. You wonder where, where does it end? This is my glory. Where does that where does it end? The only end point that I could see real quick is the outright defeat of of NATO of the NATO proxy in Ukraine. That's the only end I could see. And even there, it's a very dangerous moment when you have that outright defeat, when the outright collapse and defeat. That's also going to be a dangerous moment. And I don't think that's going to come anytime soon. It could. It could never know. Well, but I think we're a year plus off from that as well. But I don't know, maybe it could happen in a month or two. Yes, yes. Interestingly, interestingly enough. And for the first time, I noticed that I see more Hershey's intelligence advisors, people who read him, are now saying that an outright defeat for Ukraine is now becoming the most likely outcome. So, you know, there are people who are increasingly seeing that. But anyway, I agree, it will need Ukraine's complete defeat, outright defeat, to bring this all finally to a stop, which by the way, almost certainly will make the Russians harden their positions over Ukraine still further and seek that outright defeat, just saying. But the other way it ends, the other possible way it ends, is that a new administration in January, not necessarily made up of, you know, well, almost certainly still made up of hawks, but perhaps rather more realized hawks and aware of what a catastrophe this whole mess has become, finally puts a stop to it all and says, look, this has gone far enough. We can't continue along this path. We'll continue to support Ukraine, because I think that's now the, I think that's now baked in the cake, actually. But we're not going to allow further missile strikes on Russian territory. It's causing too much trouble. It's affecting isn't too many places around the world. And then you get the new head of the CIA, talking to the head of the SVR, the Russian intelligence agency, and each come to a private agreement with each other. Or perhaps the two chiefs of staff, the Russian and the American will each speak, and they'll agree to call the whole thing off, at least this game of missile strikes and further escalation. All right, let's, let's see how all of this unfolds. All we can do is watch, watch a trade. Absolutely. Absolutely. I mean, even though, as I said, we're all affected in it, I mean, it's these are decisions that are made which affect all of us. And of course, what we can do is watch because we don't know, we have no direct input into the discussions that are taking place. Though those discussions are definitely happening. And as you see, in the meantime, Putin is immense strengthening his defenses. No, the one positive that someone can take away is that you do have adults on the other side. Absolutely. Absolutely. Running things and making decisions and trying to bring this whole thing to a soft landing. And I'm not talking about Ukraine, I'm talking about the unipolar world. I'm trying to bring this unipolar world to a soft landing. I agree. Yes. Okay. The Duran dot locals dot com, we are on Rumble Odyssey, but she telegraphed in and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop, 50% off merchandise, use the code, get ready, 15. Take care. [Music]