American Giant makes great clothing, sweatshirts, jeans, and more, right here in the US. Visit american-giant.com and get 20% off your first order with Code Staple 20. That's 20% off your first order at american-giant.com, Code Staple 20. [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] What is up everybody? Thank you all for joining me on the latest more cast part of this CSC Network. I'm of course your host Jeff Morton. Today, this is going to get a little wonky. I'm going to be talking about the new CBA, or not new CBA. I'm going to be talking about the new media deal that is coming down the pike. I'm going to talk to you about some of the nuance, some of the factors, some of the things that I have been indicated that have gone on and stuff like that. It's going to be interesting to think about. In the second half, I'm going to talk about its impact on the way the NBA will be and future expansion which is imminent if you listen to anything the NBA has been projecting. 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That is promo code B-L-E-A-V all caps for your 50% welcome bonus on your first deposit. BetOnline where the game starts here. Okay, the NBA is about to, I'm sure within the next week or so, maybe two weeks, we'll be announcing a new media deal. Obviously there's some, excuse me, sorry about the cough. There are some factors that go into this and it is not official yet. There are still some things that could be happening. But essentially, we have several things happening at once. And honestly, people have over focused on the Amazon part of it. If you really look into the details of the, what's been reported so far with Amazon and their involvement, it is really limited. We're not talking about something that is hugely extensive where this is different than that. We, this is sort of like the NFL and their package with Amazon, which is actually probably more extensive than the NBA's. The NBA's will be primarily focused on the in-season tournament for Amazon and the play in tournament that goes on at the end of the season and maybe some extraneous games. This is really, this media deal is about ESPN, it's diminished power and the rise of NBC, which saw an opening due to an all-time bag fumbling by Warner Brothers and pounced in a way that I don't think that this has been coming for a while. If anyone's been listening to the more cast, you've been hearing me talk about NBC, NBC, NBC's coming, NBC's coming, get ready for it. And I think people weren't fully cognizant of what that meant. I think people were just assuming that it was going to be a third package, a minor package with TNT being the, still the B package and ESPN retaining its power. And to be honest with you, NBC coming in with such a specific NBC/comcast/universal coming in with such a dynamite package was something that was only allowed because of all-time and I do mean all-time bag fumbling by Warner Brothers. For people who don't know, ESPN and TNT/ Warner Brothers have an exclusive negotiating window that goes on for quite a while. This window opens up and then you got time to really hammer out a deal. This is the way the NBA has done this since 2003 with ESPN and TNT. And one of the problems that has really beset the NBA is that they put all their eggs into ESPN's back at basket in a way that basically changed the NBA to the fortunes of ESPN. One of the reasons that the NBA's issues have cropped up as of late is because the diminished power of ESPN and quite frankly, the almost repulsive way that they cover the NBA has linked the NBA to fundamentally the fortunes of ESPN and really their diminished ability to cover the league. One of the reasons that the NFL is able to overcome the deficiencies of the ESPN is because they don't rely on ESPN and not having to rely on ESPN is one of the keys that has actually allowed the NFL to flourish even more than they would otherwise because they're not beholden to the whims of hot take artists on ESPN. Unfortunately, that is not the case with the NBA, which really rose and fell several times through since 2002 when they first signed the deal to now with the fortunes of ESPN. Putting all their eggs in one basket was very, very, very bad. I mean, leaving TNT aside, and I will get to them in a second. So having that kind of limited scope embedding on cables such as they did in 2002, which hurt them, led the NBA to start revising and really thinking about how to approach this. One of the reasons the NFL has been able to flourish as well as they are all the games are easily accessible and are over the air, most of them. Over the air games and if the ones that you don't, I mean even some games like the Amazon ones, they're simulcast on a local channel and a local market. So essentially the NBA, the NFL is always available. It is available and at your fingertips. That is not the same with the NBA. If you think about it, most of the NBA is not over the air. It doesn't get over the air until very late in the season. And when it does that, it's only select dates. And it was really difficult to find some games, especially in the early 2000s, if you weren't a kid, you don't have someone who subscribed to cable. Now that everyone has cable, that still means the over-the-air channels rule, which is it seems contradictory and weird to say in 2024 that that would be the case. But it's not necessarily about the fact that there is an over-the-air option. It's the fact that it's easy and readily accessible and you can see it no matter what. With our culture going through a shift away from a sports watching culture going away from RSNs and regional sports networks, it's imperative, absolutely imperative that these games be readily available to be watched. And the NBA for 22 years has not been that. That has gone all in on both Turner and ESPN in a way that limited their scope. And the NBA recognized this to their credit. Adam Silver recognized this and he recognized it midway through the last media deal they signed. And this became something that the NBA wanted to remedy. However, both ESPN and TNT/Warner Bros. had their exclusive negotiating windows. And these negotiating windows are there to give you absolutely every possible chance you have to come up with a good deal. Turner was always going to be a bit on the disadvantaged side because there's no Warner Bros. is not associated with anything over the air. They've got Max, which is streaming, which was all well and good. Max is actually a very good streaming platform even though they have diminished themselves. It used to be the best and they've diminished themselves so much that it's ridiculous. But they don't have an over-the-air option. They don't have ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox. This is exclusively just cable. And that was something that was going to be a factor. But Turner chose to dither. David Zazlav, their CEO, chose to play games. And indicate that maybe they don't need the NBA. And that set things off on the wrong path with the league. The league heard what David Zazlav was saying and said like, "Ah, okay. Well, okay, let's see what kind of money you come up with." And Warner Bros. refused to do something that the NBA knew probably that NBC was willing to do. And which was to not only double what the package for Turner was per year, but go a little more than that and in fact make itself almost a package. Pay that much for rights that you were willing to up. Because this is all about money, folks. And at the end of the day, the two things that the NBA wanted in this media rights deal was ease of access and money, with money being probably first. And these things all coalesced and came together in a way that limited Turner, which people have been moaning the lack of inside the NBA. What's going to have you happening with inside the NBA? Not going to be around. The reason the inside the NBA won't continue is completely because of both Turner not being able to do with this. I mean, obviously the thing's not over yet. Things can happen, but it's heading that way that Turner's going to lose this, the NBA package. And Ernie Johnson is a Turner lifer. He will not leave Turner and he will not leave Atlanta. This is Ernie Johnson. He's the lifer. He's been there since the beginning. He will stay there till the end. That is why inside the NBA won't leave. This is not something the NBA did. It's not something NBC did. This is all Warner Brothers and Ernie Johnson with due respect to Ernie Johnson. If you won't leave inside the NBA won't continue. As far as what it means for the NBA, this is going to be $7 billion a year between Amazon, NBC, and ESPN. Like I said, NBC is going to be just a little less, very small amount per year, less than ESPN. And what has happened is it's diminished the power of ESPN, which is something that had needed to be done for quite a while. And because Turner was at such a disadvantage with the money, they couldn't compete on a level with ESPN. Comcast, who is not very popular here in Colorado for obvious reasons, was able with money to compete with ESPN in a very significant way. And what this has done is diminished the power of ESPN. That's my top line takeaway from this, is that the NBA desperately wanted to be over the air, and they now have multiple over-the-air options. Having both ABC and NBC available for playoff games and for regular season games, apparently there's going to be Sunday, basketball night in America, and Sundays after football, this is going to be a good package to really get the NBA back in front of people that they haven't been since 2002. The NBA has not been readily available over the air since 2002. As the years have gone by, ESPN has slowly but surely moved all the NBA stuff almost exclusively. To ESPN. When the NBA first signed this deal, it was for something like 35 games, I think I wrote an article on this over-the-air. And it got less and less and less over time. And this really backs that up again. And I'm glad they've all realized that. All right, in the second half of the podcast, I'm going to talk about its effect on the league, what this means, what it means for expansion, and what this means for the CBA and money for both players and owners going forward. But first, I want to talk to you about Blanchard Family Wines, located between 18th and 19th, and Blake and Wazee, and viewed for Lower Downtown Denver, Colorado. Just a couple blocks away from Coors Field, right in the middle of the dairy block, they're always online at bfwcolorado.com. They're on Facebook and Instagram under Blanchard Family Wines. Look, if all of you know, if you've been listening to this podcast for the last five years, the only reason I read for Blanchard Family Wines is that I went in there once, and I enjoyed it, and that really sometimes is all it takes for me. But if I really enjoy something, I will commit to it. I don't get paid for this. I just read about them because I like their product, and I want people to understand there's places in Lower Downtown, in Downtown Denver that probably desperately need your support right now, as businesses are struggling with having adapting to what's coming out of the pandemic. And honestly, places in the dairy block need your support too. So if you're going downtown, if you're going to the Rockies game, stop by after a game or before a game, or if you are going down for dinner, what I do sometimes is I stop at Blanchard first, and then I make my way to a restaurant. It really is a great place to just kind of pre-game it, and then walk. It's such an ease of access to various places that are around there. It's they're great. If you like, whereas you like whites, you've got partnerships with Western Slope wineries, you've got great Pino. I highly suggest that they've got great Cabernet. But if you want any sort of other variety of wine, they've got what you need right there in your favorite local wine bar. They got a location in Fort Collins, they got a location in Golden, and they got a location obviously in their original location in Sonoma County, California. Once again, they're located between 18th and 19th, and Blaken Winesy in beautiful Lower Downtown, Denver, Colorado, just to give a block away from Chorus Field. Right in the middle of the dairy block, they're always online at pfducolorato.com. They're on Facebook and Instagram, or to Blanchard family wines. When you go in or you speak to them, I'm Jeff Morton from CSG podcast, sent you. It was, well man, it was clear to me that this was going to be a mega deal. Whatever the signs that this gets means a lot of money for the NBA, for however long this package is going to be lasting for. And the owners knew it, the players knew it, and this probably factored into a lot of their thinking going into this last CBA negotiation last year. And additionally, the NBA needed to make these, this media deal 100% concrete before they enter into expansion and whatever that means. Obviously, I'm not someone who's going to be having like completely inside information on this, but the NBA has been projecting that this is the way it's going for several years now. And the NBA, because I think they understand that there's a concentration of talent in the NBA, a too much of a concentration. Great players are not getting any chance to get to the finals, which is a boo-hoo, right? People are like, this is the parody era, this is exactly what you want. But in the grand scheme of things, there's too much concentration, and leagues that have too much concentration like this need to expand. There needs to be 36 more positions available in the NBA, for whenever the NBA inevitably expands into Seattle and probably Vegas. This is just the way it is. And of course, the NBA is going to get a boatload of more money that they won't have to spend, that share with the players when these expansion fees come in. So there's all these things coming in that is inevitably going to happen. So this media deal really lays the groundwork and accelerates the process of getting an expansion team up and going and ready for the NBA. And a couple expansion teams, and of course, this will lead to realignment. Teams that are west will be going east, and this is all this stuff that is going to be factoring into it. I'll be discussing that when we get more idea of when this is going to be happening. Right now, it's informed speculation about it coming in. But as far as the CBA goes, the NBA wanted to not repeat what happened with the last CBA when the cap spiked. So the players and the owners negotiated a smoothing of the cap, which is, look, I understand that the cap spiked really through things off. It created three more years of a dynastic Golden State Warriors team that everyone pretended to hate. And I think that that part is something that the NBA didn't want to repeat again. If I was the players, I'd be a little upset at this because this means what's happening is that there's going to be a bunch of money just dumped into escrow, and it's not going to be reflecting in the cap. Now, obviously, one-time cap spikes are bad for the league. I get it. That is more of a personal labor thing with me. You know, don't deny yourself money. And it's obviously you're getting it anyway, but it's this complicated mechanisms, and there's all that going on. With all that aside, even with the cap smoothing, it's going to be a 10% basically from what I can glean. They've guaranteed 10% jump every year. And that is going to greatly affect future contracts. It's going to change a lot of the dead dynamic, even though there's a smoothing mechanism there. So this is going to be a new era we're jumping into. I remember with the Durant stuff, which was, I believe he signed in 2016, having that effect because of that cap spike. And if people remember, a bunch of contracts were signed the year before in 2015. So really, it began the year before when people knew, oh, what the cap was going to be jumping up to. But it created a one-time scenario when it just leapt up leaps and bounds the next year, and the Golden State Warriors were suddenly able to sign Kevin Durant. All that aside, we're going to be entering into a new financial area of the NBA, and it's going to touch a lot of different things. What it also will affect is the two expansion teams that are coming in, and the way the NBA has to manage having 16 more roster spots with not 16, 30, 36, there's 18 a team, and then three, six two-way contracts, and then 15 roster spots. So it's going to affect a lot of the way the NBA approaches the cap. And the reason I'm talking about this is that now, once this is official, folks, people who are observers of the NBA and people who have covered this thing for a long time know, as soon as it's official, as soon as the media deal is known and the parameters of which are known, that will change things, and it doesn't matter when the cap goes up. As in the financial landscape is known is when things will start changing. People don't want to repeat the Oklahoma City problem of 2012. And when Sam Presti and James Harden couldn't come to an agreement and with a refusal to amnesty Kendrick Perkins for some reason, the Oklahoma City Thunder had been forced into basically lowering their ceiling and trading James Harden without having the foresight of knowledge that the cap spike would be happening in three years, and things would really begin to change dramatically, and whatever they were paying would be paying because apparently the difference in with Harden and Oklahoma City was something in the neighborhood of four to six million dollars. And you look back on that now and you're like, this is ridiculous. You couldn't keep a dynastic team together or potential dynastic team together because of this. So teams are cognizant of this. They don't want to repeat those mistakes. So they are aware of where the parameters are going to be. League executives do not like uncertainty. And when I say League executives, I specifically mean GMs. They hate uncertainty. When they have something coming in, they know what's going on, that changes everything. So a year before the media deal takes effect is when you will begin to see the changes, and you'll begin to see the movement of players. And I'm not necessarily talking about free agency. I'm talking about trades. You notice this happens over time. Teams just get paranoid about trading players. Trading four or trading a picks or not picks, but the trading like players on their roster. The player movement before a media deal with side always becomes really dicey. And that's what happened this last year. You know, despite Dallas pulling off a couple trades that really kind of made them the team they are right now on the verge of a finals appearance, the trade deadline this year was terrible. And it was largely terrible because people didn't know what the financial landscape would look like. Now, and once this happens and once it's official, people will know and people know exactly how much the cap will go up. People will know what that means. People will have a good idea, come going forward, how this will affect their team, and they will adjust accordingly. And that is when you will start seeing player movement pick back up again. That is that moment, you will see it. I fully expect I fully fully fully expect when this is official for things to begin changing and the NBA to start loosening up again, because it's been locked down tight. We're in the parody era and part of the reason parody is now prevailing is because people got scared. People people for you know, specifically executives got scared because they didn't know what the light landscape would look at. And when there's uncertainty, people just locked down tight. And I believe once we have an idea of what's going to happen, things will start moving. Now, I don't know how much this affects Denver Nuggets. Who knows, we got three players on max deals. And people keep saying Michael Porter Jr. is on a max deal. It's a sort of max. There was a lot of clauses in Porter's contract. And I believe he is locked into 172 million. He's I don't think he'll be able to get the the incentive laden, I believe 30 other 30 million that was that could be available to could have been available to him. I think he's not going to be getting that. So it's really he's locked into his 172 over the duration of his contract. So but but obviously, Jamal Murray and the negotiations for his deal are going to be affected. And the negotiations for his extension and the negotiations for Aaron Gordon's extension will all be affected by once we know exactly what the cap is and what the what will happen. And of course, any moves the Nuggets made will be 100% affected by what the knowledge of what the cap is. I mean, Keith Smith did a breakdown of this guy. I I suggest you go to his Twitter account and look it up. It's a lot of money, folks. And obviously, with caps moving, it's it's not as onerous as it was in 2014, when this last meeting deal was signed and you had two years of build up to the caps bike in 2016. This is different. This is this is the NBA understanding exactly what the cap landscape is going to be looking like. And we will see how it affects the Denver Nuggets. They have been pleading that if they had known that the which is something I gotta I mean, this is the last thing. I mentioned this in the last podcast, but I mean, Josh Cronkey saying that, well, these guys were signed under a different CBA is the is actually a complete bullshit. Josh Cronkey was well aware of the way things were going for a long time. And and Michael Board of Junior was signed. Yeah, that signed that extension in 2021. Okay, we're talking we're talking three years ago. And it was three years ago, just in this off season. Okay. So I think I think Josh is being disingenuous as most business people are when these get to these situations. The NBA projects where things are going very, very well. And I think that I think that he's being a bit creative with his wording when it comes to that sort of thing. But anyway, that's just a minor thing. So what I'm going to ask you guys is like at J Morton 78 on Twitter. Now that we kind of aren't going to getting an idea where things will be going. And we will probably be getting two new teams in the NBA eventually. What are you thinking about the NBA landscape? And are you feeling any better about the Nuggets prospects considering that we will be there will be a little more flexibility and some more financial elements moving into the league? And also, what do you think about NBC getting it's it's a deal with the NBA, you know, I'm okay with it. As much as I'm going to miss inside the NBA, to be quite honest with you, the reason inside the NBA is not going to be continuing is on inside the NBA. And I think that that part is is something that we got to be take coming to terms with, but I think having more over the air games in the NBA is going to be a good thing. All right, thank you for joining me on the latest more casting me back in a couple days with another episode. Bye. [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music]
The new media right deal for the NBA is imminent. On the Latest Mortcast, Jeff talks about the implications of the new package that will (likely) feature a diminished ESPN, NBC and Amazon and how Turner fumbled the bag.
