Showdown
Showdown Episode 78 6-7-24
(upbeat music) - Welcome to Showdown, I'm Mark Casein, and we've made it to Friday. It is Friday, June the 7th. We made it past D-Day. And let's sort of recap this. When we left our favorite convicted felon disgraced ex-president yesterday, he was promising that if he were not elected president, that there would be a bloodbath. Now today, our favorite convicted felon has added to that. He now says that in fact, if he doesn't win the presidency, that it will be the end of the United States of America. It'll be over. And in addition to that, some really excellent things have happened within his circle of friends. For example, Steve Bannon learned that he is going to go to jail for violating the requirement, which is that you're supposed to show up for a subpoena when they give you one in the United States of America. So that's one part that was added on for our favorite convicted felon. And then on top of that, his buddy in the White House previously, that's Mark Meadows, he has gone on to be brought to Arizona, where he is currently indicted for being involved in fraud and forgery. And so that's a good piece of work today for the Donald Trump crowd. They've worked hard for this honor and they have definitely achieved quite an honor and they're going to continue in the days ahead. In fact, people are being indicted everywhere you turn and Donald is just doing a fine job. But at the same time, our favorite president of the United States currently in office is, of course, Joe Biden, who was still in Europe today. And he spoke again. And this time he gave another stunningly outstanding speech all about democracy and the fight for freedom and really just an outstanding presentation that occurred early this morning. And then on top of that, when asked whether Joe Biden would abide by any results from this jury in the trial for Hunter Biden, Joe Biden said very simply, one word. Yes, he would abide by whatever the jury says. And then he was asked further, will you consider under any circumstances a pardon for your son? And again, Joe Biden said just one word. This time the word was no, he would not consider a pardon. But again, just one word. Yes, he will abide by whatever the jury says. No, he will not pardon his son. No matter what happens. And that is the difference between the rule of law and the United States of America, the constitution in this country and the behavior of convicted criminals who are doing everything they can to avoid jail. Of course, Steve Bannon not only is not going to avoid jail because he's been told that he must show up by July 1st and he's threatening of course to appeal. He's gonna appeal everywhere. He's appealing right now. He's appealing to everybody. Do not send him to jail. But actually the funniest thing that I saw yesterday, aside from a text message that I got that showed a prison with the tower in the prison and then at the top it said Trump Tower. Apart from that, and I should have shown it on the screen here, but I'm learning eventually I'll get to it. But anyway, so aside from that, I thought it was great. I think it was Jimmy Kimmel pointed out that as far as Steve Bannon going to jail that the truth is of all the people involved in the circle of Donald Trump, Steve Bannon looks more like somebody who has just come out of jail than anybody. And that's a great question too. It doesn't really matter, but my question is, why does he walk around like that? Well, what's the point? He looks like he just got out of jail. He looks like he's got five cents, which is all Donald's got as well, which actually Donald may have less than that. Oh, I know, he's got $6 billion in that company of his that's going down the tubes. But at any rate, yeah, that thing closed today. And I think 45ish right in that range, 45, 46, tried to go up several times this week when the market was moving upward and then as the market started to back off, Donald Trump's stock began to fall as well further than anything, of course. However, don't worry, it's only down 50% from the high and it's got considerable more to go on the downside before it hits, I'm gonna say one. I'm not saying zero, but I think it'll get down to one. So September is the date that he gets to take his money out. So I'm gonna guess that by September, he could be looking at about $1 per share. And I don't know, I haven't added it up, but it might actually come up to a fair piece of change. I don't know, a half a million dollars or something. Oh yeah, forget the billions. Yeah, the billions are gonna be gone. He might have a half a million, he might have 200,000, it might be 30,000. It's gonna be dropping pretty well, but he'll need that money so that he can use the payphone in jail. So that's good, I wanna make sure he's got some money for that. So here we are on Friday and the gang has ended the week with a really fabulous showing. The end of the United States of America, of course a bloodbath, everybody either in jail, going to jail, standing in front of a a court somewhere with indictments being read. It's all great, it's very interesting. It's the United States of America, how did we get here? Well, one of the questions that's being asked and nobody seems to have a good answer to it is, and really think about this now, all of these people who over the last number of years started off saying that Donald Trump was a grifter, a carnival barker, a criminal for sure, somebody that should never be anywhere near the White House. I mean, all these different things were said by people like Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell and even Bill Barr came to it about six months ago, he was saying that Donald couldn't be in the White House ever again and all of these people, and I mean, there are so many more and I'm not even counting the people who have gone to jail and I don't have a list here, but there's such a list of people that worked with him that ended up in jail, that that's an amazing thing as well, some of whom have been pardoned subsequently, but some of them are coming back into the fold and apparently would like to be jailed again. I think Paul Manafort is trying to jump on board after he went to jail and then got out on a pardon and now I believe he's trying to get involved in one of these activities that will land him in jail again. So yeah, that's an interesting part too. By the way, all these cases against Donald that have been halted, the one in Washington, the one in Mar-a-Lago and then of course, the one in Georgia, all three of them. They've been halted at the moment, but guess what? Nobody's taking into account the five new cases which have not mentioned Trump, actually they're four 'cause Georgia's involved in that too. So you've got four states that have indicted Trump people for forgery and fraud and in each of those cases, they've indicated unindicted co-conspirators, one of them of course is Donald Trump and this is really very clever of all of these states because they don't wanna end up dealing with Georgia. They don't wanna be Fonnie Willis. They don't want any of those problems. So what they're doing is going after all of Trump's cronies and they're holding Trump on the side, ready to indict him whenever they please. So that's four new indictments that are coming for Trump which nobody even felt compelled to say that they're going to do it, but everybody that's involved in the legal profession knows that when they say unindicted co-conspirators and given the entire situation, it is sensible to consider that that's exactly what they may do because they're going through with these cases, this is very serious and the best example is today and that's Mark Meadows. Mark Meadows has been indicted in Georgia. Today, he was indicted in Maricopa County in Arizona and before he's through, Mark Meadows will probably find himself behind bars. You know, I have friends who always called it the Graybar Hotel. So yeah, that's probably where Mark Meadows is going following of course Steve Bannon, but and others and so many others. I mean, the list is so long and you've got Rudy Giuliani out there who's headed for jail as a result of all of this. Once he gets himself in front of a jury, of course he's losing his law license. In fact, he can't practice law. So, you know, he may lose it permanently. That's coming up for him. There are others who find themselves in similar circumstances, that is lawyers who have worked for Trump, who are headed for oblivion, not able to practice law anymore and maybe never again. And so, you know, given the history here, given where so many people have ended up with indictments and convictions and actually in jail, the question that's being asked everywhere, why are they doing this? Why when they know better, are they doing this anyway? And I've already said, you know, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, yeah, Ted Cruz, those two. So Rubio and Cruz were among the first ones to say that Donald was insane and Donald was scary and a grifter and, you know, all the different language that actually applies and certainly does apply since we know that this man has now been convicted. So, you know, before people said he was a criminal, I said he was a criminal eight years ago. And I said it seven years and then six years ago and five and four and three and two and one and then here for months, I've said the man's a criminal. And I said, you know, I don't have to presume innocence. Our courts do and we should, but I don't have to, I can say what I think. And so I've said, really for years, this man is a criminal. I'm not the only one, but I certainly have been very reliable and steady in my accusations. But now it's not even a question of whether I'm right or wrong because we know the answer. You don't have to ask. We all know that he's convicted. He's a convicted felon. He can't get a security clearance but he wants to be commander in chief. We've already talked about the fact that just with fraud indictments that he's had, that he could not get a job at like a t-shirt company in the mall, nor at McDonald's or anywhere else. I mean, he couldn't get any of those jobs, but yeah, somebody wants from the president of the United States. So the question is, why are these people doing this? I mean, it's pretty obvious what the situation is. I mean, it's pretty clear how much trouble on Friday afternoon, June 7th, how much trouble Donald Trump really has and it's enormous. I mean, think about it. That's the thing that's funny. People don't even want to think about it. They don't want to say a word about it. They just go on as if it's not even happening. But you know what, it is happening. And I understand too, that there are people out here who are fearful that Joe Biden will lose the election to Trump. But I will say this, that's not going to happen. Joe Biden is going to win this election and there are so many reasons why. And all of them have to do with what will continue to happen, what will continue to be in front of the American people between now and all the way up to November. I mean, you're going to see this thing break so hard against Donald Trump as we get through this election period. This campaign period, you will see that this is going to break dramatically against Trump and in favor of Joe Biden. Naturally, as I've said so many times, women. That's probably the number one thing. Really, I don't think there's even anything else we have to talk about beyond women. I mean, I'm going to, but really you don't have to because women get it. Women do not want this problem. Women do not want to hear 90% of the people in the country, not just women. This is everybody. 90% favor birth control. Now, I said repeatedly, I'm not up here to tell you that you should use birth control, not I. I would never discuss this. I don't even think it's important for me to get into this conversation. But I will tell you this. I know what women think. I've seen the polls. It's women and their families. And I can tell you right now that the number is 90%. And that includes Republicans favor birth control. But guess what? And by the way, just because 90% or for it, that doesn't make it okay. It really doesn't. 90% could favor lots of different things and the 90% could be wrong. So that's not a problem. But here is the problem. And by the way, yes, Michael, Arizona has done a great job. But here's the problem. The problem is this group of people that apparently has absolutely no principles that they adhere to. They'll do anything. But suddenly they're standing up against birth control. Well, you know where that's going to get them? It's going to get them thrown out of office so fast and so hard it is absolutely hysterical. I just don't know why anybody would do it. And that's the question that people have been asking today, whether it's Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or Mitch McConnell or Chris Sonunu. I mean, all these people, hey, let's not forget Nikki Haley. Now, I will say this, there are few people that are stuck against Trump. Mitt Romney has wavered a little bit. So I'm not going to include him in it. But there are a whole bunch of others. Certainly Liz Cheney, she doesn't care. She's standing up for what she believes. And you know what? She's not going to have to wait for 50 years to be recognized for her courage. You watch. She will be recognized for her courage. I'm going to say in five years or less because I'm telling you, Donald is going down the drain very quickly. And he's got a problem that is so dramatic. And here's the good part. You don't have to worry that there's no worry that Donald will suddenly get smart, shut up and find his way to win the election. He won't do it. He's tried this before. He can't do it. He is going to keep pushing. He's going to keep acting insane. It's going to get worse. He's got a debate that's coming now in less than three weeks. Remember, it's on the 27th. So it's 20 days after today. He is going to have a debate. Now he might not show up at the debate. That's another story. But if he shows up at that debate, you know, they'll turn off the microphone and he'll be screaming. Michael says there are other reasons for women to take birth control pills, hormones, will that be outlawed? Yes, that would all be outlawed, Michael. I mean, what would they care about women? Why would they care what women need? First of all, they would do that. They would definitely outlaw all of it. I mean, they're not going to allow birth control pills for somebody, for hormones, get out of here. Of course, they're not going to have anything to say about it anyway, Michael. But the point is, no, they're all the way in on this. All the way, they're not going to back up. And that's going to still bring me to the question. Who would do this? Who would put themselves into this kind of a problem where who knows what will happen to them? I mean, they may lose not only an election. I mean, they may, they may be so wiped out in this next election. They may never get back near office again. Who knows? But they are in trouble, huge trouble. And why? Because there's so many ways up until now, and even now, that they could just back off. They could walk back and say, no, it's not the end of the United States of America. And we're not going to have a bloodbath. They could say that, they could say, look how easy this one is. Because, and they won't say it either, but watch, they could say this. Somebody says, ask them. If the election occurs and Donald Trump loses, would you accept the result of the election? How hard is it to say, sure, that's what we do, we accept the results of elections? So, how easy would it be to do that? The answer is, it would be simple. Why would you say that you're not going to do that? Now, that's why I brought up Joe Biden, because look at what Joe Biden did. Joe Biden was asked, if the jury finds your son guilty, will you abide by the verdict? He didn't even hesitate for a half a second. He said, yes, I will abide by the verdict, yes. Have you considered pardoning your son if the verdict is wrong? If you don't like what happens, if he has to go to jail, would have you considered that? Will you do it? Answer. No, I won't do it. End of discussion. What else is there to say? I mean, I understand they'll doctor a video, they'll come up with all kinds of craziness, and by the time they're done, they'll have Joe Biden at the pizza place, eating children with Hillary for dinner. But come on now. He said what had to be said. I'll abide by the verdict and no pardon. Simple. End of discussion. Now, will Donald Trump do that? Of course not. Never. He got hit with five million dollars for being a rapist and for saying things that defamed Eugene Carroll. Five million dollars. Now at that point, all he had to do is walk away and say nothing. End of conversation. I mean, there would be people who would say that he's a rapist. Fine. There are people who would say that he had been convicted of something and he would just ignore it. End of conversation. But you see, he can't do that. He had to push it all the way until they got him for almost a hundred million dollars. And he's not mouthing off right now. He stopped on that one. He did. They actually came up with a number that quieted him down. But I guess the reason that quieted him down is because he found other things to say, which are equally breaking the law. He's violating his gag order every day. Every single day he violates the gag order and demands that it be removed. And he knows that on July 11th, he's going to stand in front of a judge who can put him in jail. And then he says that when I am put in jail, the country won't stand for it. That's how we get to the end of the United States of America because the country won't stand for Donald Trump going to jail. The only problem is there are maybe eight or 10 obsequious Republicans. Go look it up. Great word. I love it. There are eight or 10 obsequious Republicans who wear blue suits and a red tie and sort of march around looking like penguins following Donald into oblivion. So again, the question is, why would any of these people do it? We know why Donald does it. He's mentally ill. I don't think there's any doubt about that. Donald's mentally ill. However, there might be more to it than just mental illness. And that might be what's affecting these other people. This is just my own favorite conspiracy theory. I mean, everybody's got one. So this is mine. Now I'm basing it on some facts which oddly enough, the other people do not. But I'm going to throw out some facts here which you'll find in the Mueller report. Donald had 144 meetings. Donald's people with the Russians, all illegal prior to the 2016 election. They couldn't do anything to him for it because he was elected. And as a president of the United States, the Justice Department said that they had rules that you couldn't do anything to a sitting president. And since Bill Barr read a summary of this to the United States people which said the opposite of what was in the Mueller report that Barr said it claimed that he was exonerated. Although if you read the words in the Mueller report, the words say we could not exonerate Donald Trump, could not exonerate him. But Bill Barr said he was exonerated and people said that's what the Mueller report said and that was the end of the discussion and nobody even wants to deal with the Mueller report anymore because it's been so widely discredited but not because it's false simply because they lied and they lied and they lied and they lied. Okay, so where am I going? 'Cause I've got a conspiracy theory here and I really like it. It might be right by the way. So here's what could be happening. Donald may in fact have done something that Vladimir Putin knows about, something that's really big 'cause it couldn't be something small. If we're something small, it would just be Donald in trouble. That'd be the end of it. But I'm suggesting this that maybe in addition to Donald knowing what it is that he did wrong that maybe Donald has told some of these people in confidence, which come on, you don't think these people could keep a confidence anyway, I doubt it, but it's just a conspiracy theory so don't worry about it. And the deal would be is that Vladimir Putin is threatening every one of them. And by the way, Putin probably was threatening Manafort because you know, Manafort went to jail and Manafort could have flipped. He could have flipped on Trump and that would have been the end to him. But Manafort worked for Vladimir Putin. He worked for the Russians. So the point is, is that maybe they really had something on Manafort, maybe they did. I always thought they did. And that's why Manafort wouldn't flip because otherwise he could have flipped and he didn't have to go to jail. But okay, he went to jail. So what about all these other people? Maybe Lindsey Graham knows what it is. Maybe they threatened him. Maybe Ted Cruz knows what it is. Maybe Marco Rubio knows what it is. Maybe they've all been told and maybe they've all been threatened. Listen, it sounds crazy and actually I think it is crazy. But here's the point, this is my conspiracy theory. I mean, everybody else has got one. Why can't I have one? I mean, this is good as anything. It makes more sense that any other reason that you can find for why these people are obsequiously following Trump. Why are they doing this? Why are they putting on those crazy blue sport coats with red ties and marching around like penguins? Why are they doing it? I don't know. I've got a conspiracy theory though for you. There it is. Maybe Putin's got something on everybody or on Donald anyway and threatening all these other people. I don't know. Like I say, that's as good a conspiracy theory as anybody's got. And it makes more sense than what these people are doing because these people are putting themselves down the drain with Trump. I mean, why would Mark Meadows go to Maricopa, Arizona and stand there in front of the court and say not guilty when all he has to do is flip on Trump and everybody else and he could get himself a deal that would just be marvelous. And he knows where this is going to take him because he knows that they committed the fraud. He knows that they not only committed the fraud, but forgery, it's both. They've got him. They've got him in Georgia too. By the time that Georgia case actually gets heard and by the time they do this in Arizona and the other three states that are going after them right now and there may be more, but by the time all that happens, Mark Meadows may be in jail for the rest of his life. Is it worth it? Well, apparently it is. So that's why my conspiracy theory is a pretty good one that in fact, going back to the Mueller report that the Russians have something on everybody or on Donald, which would apply to these people because they would be threatened. Now the problem with my theory is is that nobody could keep the confidence and the story would spread within the Democratic Party and they would tell, I guess they would. I don't know. I would think they would. So I'm just saying my conspiracy theory is crazy, but you know what? It's no crazier than saying that Donald Trump won the election in 2020, which we know he didn't. And it's no crazier than walking into a courtroom where the judge is in control of your life and you're sitting there mouthing off to the guy and you're still doing it after you've been convicted as a felon and you're still mouthing off. So yeah, that's mental illness as far as I can tell and I'm just saying, you would think somebody would have some sense, but apparently they don't. But here's my main point at 4.37 in the afternoon. My main point of the afternoon is this. You can get yourself a fabulous dinner at Wendy's and you know this is Friday, great night to go to Wendy's, then come Saturday and Sunday. I mean, you've got all kinds of opportunities there. I mean, you could spend the whole weekend at Wendy's. Why not? In fact, if you do that, then you don't have to worry about me and my theories about baby back ribs. You can go to Wendy's and you just spend the whole week in there and you can eat the ribs. You can eat the wings. You can have some patty melts and hamburgers and all kinds of things so you can have a great time at Wendy's and I've been told and I'm sure that this is absolutely the truth. This is not a conspiracy theory that it's actually a great place to go to catch up on what's happening for the air show. So you know, you can see all this activity here in the air show at Wendy's in Chesterfield Valley. So yeah, Wendy's is tremendous and that's probably the only thing I've said tonight that I guarantee you is 100% right. No, it's not the only thing. It's 100% correct that Donald is a convicted felon but you know, my conspiracy theory is another story. That may not be true. But at any rate, what is true is Wendy's. You can eat there, you can enjoy it, you can watch all these people coming in and out from the air show. You can see lots of things having to do with the air show. I was coming down the street on the way to the studio which is in the same vicinity and I saw planes coming in and out all over the place. It's really interesting and fun. So that's the air show here in Chesterfield Valley and don't forget Wendy's where you can have a great dinner and then eat there tomorrow as well and just keep eating at Wendy's all weekend long. Don't leave, just enjoy it because it's a great place to eat and then if you get tired of eating here and just watching the valley, you can always get up out of your seat, get in your car and drive off to Defiance, Missouri where you can go to the Wendy's over there because that Wendy's roadhouse in Defiance is likewise phenomenal. Ben will take care of you at either location. You know, it's all been put together by Ben and his wife, they've done a great job and all I can say is it's just like Joe Biden. One word, they asked him the question and he said yes. So here's the deal. Just one word, Wendy's. You don't need any more than that, get over there. Now, if you're looking for jewelry, you can go to 4506 Hampton and that's in St. Louis and there's no conspiracy there. The jewelry is terrific, lots of great designs created by Alan and his crew, they're very good, AJ, his son and so not only they have the designs for their jewelry and I'm telling you, you go through that place, there's jewelry everywhere. They've got cases and cases filled with jewelry. It's a big place, lots of inventory and it's just a great place to go buy jewelry and don't forget, if you go in there and you get stuck 'cause you're just so enamored by all the jewelry around you and you look at your watch to see what time it is and you realize your watch is broken, don't worry, just leave it there, they'll fix your watch. That's Jules on Hampton, they buy and sell coins and jewelry at great prices, 4506 Hampton, Jules on Hampton. Finally, the St. Louis Sioux Company will keep you dressed all week long if you're going to work in the office which nobody does anymore anyway or you know, maybe you're going somewhere, maybe you're on the air, whatever. If you've got a program you're doing somewhere and you wanna look nice or maybe you just wanna stay out of trouble or you just wanna look professional, the place to go is the St. Louis Sioux Company and I've been told which I've relayed to all of you that in 2024, people actually wear more than, it's not just the suit. I mean a suit, yes, sometimes. But these sport coats, you know, that's the suit coat, but now they're sport coats and those are now hottest can be, everybody's buying sport coats and wearing everything else with it, you can imagine jeans and other things, you know, I wear my chucks, you know, I mean, my chucks are the best and in fact, I even mismatch my chucks sometimes too, I wear one foot red, one foot black, you know, I learned that at school. Anyway, St. Louis Sioux Company, they'll get you suits and they'll get you ties and shirts and overcoats for the winner and dress shoes as well and finally, the important thing about the St. Louis Sioux Company is if you go there, you know, Jay and Nick will really take care of you and if you happen to be there because of a wedding, even better because they're really experts on wedding attire. So they'll take care of you for all different reasons at the St. Louis Sioux Company that's at Forsyth and Central and that's in Clayton, they've been there for 29 years. Great place to go. Okay, so now we're back to the last 15 minutes of this and I'm gonna talk to you about some economics today. What we're gonna do, the first thing I'm gonna do is I'm gonna have Joe flip up on the screen a chart. So there it is and this chart has a symbol so you can actually go find this yourself if you've got a computer access to stock prices and in this case, it's H-Y-I and the H-Y stands for high yield and let me explain to you something about a high yield. This is Western asset management high yield but there are lots of different mutual funds that have bonds in them that are considered high yield and you might hear that and think, gee, that's really good, I can get a high yield. Well, there's a problem with it and the problem is is that the way it gets to be high yield is that these bonds are very low quality and so the yield is very high and that means that there's also a risk that they won't pay off because if you look at this and it does show on the screen that the yield is 9.9%. So where can you get almost 10%? And the answer is nowhere safe. So you can't go somewhere safe and get 10% yield. If you get 10% yield, that means there's a lot of risk because otherwise everybody would just invest in 10% and walk away making a ton of money but that's not the way this works. So why do I have it up on the screen in front of you and here's the answer. If you look at that chart you will see that this high yield index hit a high in January and that high was at about 12.25 and then in February it hit 12.25 again and then March it hit 12.25 again. So three times it hit 12.25 and finally the price started to go down. Now I want you to understand something. When a price of a bond goes down the interest rate goes up. That's just by definition because there's an amount that the bonds pay and when the price is lower, the amount that is paid on the bonds represents a higher percentage of the total amount of money that you've invested. So if you look at this chart, you can see that in the end of March and then in April and then in May and now in June the price of this HYI has just gone down, down, down. Three months, March, well three in a fraction, March, April, May and then a part of June, a little bit. So that's no big deal. That means higher interest rates and the price of these bonds has been dropping but here's what you need to know that while this represents a bond portfolio because these bonds are such low quality, meaning they may never pay, they may never pay off. Because of that, these are considered to be like stocks. So these are sort of what you would call a proxy for stocks and generally when stocks go up, you might get these high yield vehicles going up and when stocks go down, then it would be the opposite and these would follow stocks. But guess what? Sometimes that doesn't happen and sometimes you get what they call divergence. So sometimes the bonds go down, which they have done in March, April and May and now early June, the bonds are going down but the stocks are going up. Go look at the S&P 500. The S&P 500 throughout this period has been going up and making new highs and in fact made new highs this week. And that divergence is considered to be very bad and very dangerous. So okay, you can take that off now, Joe. So here's the thing. According to this indicator, there's a whole bunch of risk that's been in the stock market for the last three months. Now again, recognize this. It's been three months. So two months ago, it was two months and the market still went up and made a higher high. But I can tell you that the longer that the stock market keeps making higher highs while this is going down the more dangerous it is and the more dramatic the danger is. Now there are other things that are right in line with this that match up perfectly. For example, and I'm not gonna put this up here right now, but there's something called the yield curve. The yield curve is, and I've explained this briefly before, but real simple, if you buy a one month bill, treasury bill, then that's supposed to yield, let's say 3%. And then you go out a little further and it goes up to 4%. You go out a little further and it goes up to 5%. And then you go out even further and maybe it's up to 6%. Okay, that's a rising yield curve and that's normal. That's very normal in an economy that's good. That's exactly what you would get because you would have people on the long end of the yield curve believing that things are gonna keep getting better and therefore there'd be upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Very normal. The problem with what we've got right now is that for 482 days, we have had an inverted yield curve and that means that the highest yields have been on the long end of the curve. So you can get, I'm sorry, wrong way. The highest yields are on the short end of the curve. That's the wrong way. Shouldn't be that way. So for example, 5.5% for federal funds overnight activity between banks, 5.5%. Then you go all the way out 30 years, instead of being 7 or 8%, it's 4.5%. So it's actually a percent lower way out on the yield curve 30 years than it is for overnight or for a week or a month. That's an inverted yield curve. So what that's saying is that bond investors believe that in the long run, interest rates will come down. And the reason that they think that is generally because the economy is going to turn down. Now remember this, it's been 482 days. That's over a year that the yield curve has been inverted. It's a long time and it's unusual, but it's a bad sign. It's pressure on everything. And all the while this has been going on, the dollar has been strong. And I'll tell you this. And if you're an economics person, you've probably heard it, but people for the last year have been saying, the dollar is going to get killed. Inflation is devaluing our money, but you see, it's not happening. The dollar's actually been going up in value. And a higher dollar puts additional pressure on the economy. So with all this pressure on the economy, why isn't everything caving in? And the answer is sort of Joe Biden, because Biden has done some things that have resulted in strength in the economy. And despite higher interest rates, the economy has refused to give up. And for example, today, so today it's Friday, first Friday of the month, and the first Friday of the month, you get the job report. And the job report was supposed to be really weak. And the reason is because people looked, well, first of all, they looked at a lot of things, but they looked at the job report, the private job report that came out from ADP, that's automatic data processing, but they just call it ADP now. And that came out on Wednesday and it was weak. So a lot of people thought today, the jobs are gonna finally be weak, because the jobs have refused to cave in. And here we are, one more time. Again, the jobs are up. 272,000 increase in jobs. So of course, the people who don't like Joe Biden are screaming, oh, the job increases. Aren't what you think, because it's really part-time jobs and full-time jobs are going down. True, that is true. A lot of reasons for all that. People make lots of different decisions. But the bottom line is that there are more people employed than any time this year. And last year, it just keeps going up. The number of jobs keeps increasing. Don't get me wrong. All of this is what we call cyclical. That means it'll go down again sometime. Now, does that mean you just sit around and wait for it to go down and then blame Joe Biden? Well, I'm sure there are people who will do that. And I don't know. I mean, this thing might cave in next week. And if it does, they're gonna be pointing the finger at Joe Biden immediately. And I've just reminded people before that this did happen in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan. And there was a cave-in in the early part of his administration in 1980 because of high interest rates going in, which were, of course, not Ronald Reagan's problem or his fault. It came from the Jimmy Carter administration, which he wasn't responsible for those rates being high anyway. It was other things that happened even before he got there. Nevertheless, Carter took the blame for it. And meanwhile, then here you got Ronald Reagan and all these things are going down. And people did blame Reagan all the way down till about 1982, 1983 right in there. And then around August of '82, the markets turned up violently. And the economy was right behind it. And by the time you got to 1984, nobody was blaming Ronald Reagan for anything anymore. And in fact, they were attributing the success to Reagan. If the downturn had come earlier, I'm sorry, later, if it had come later, there might not have been any time for there to be any recovery. And so then maybe Ronald Reagan wouldn't have looked so good. We'll never know. But here's the deal. If everything caves in next week, I don't know, whenever. The question is, will there be a rebound going into November? Because if there is, they'll look at Joe Biden and they'll say, not that Joe Biden caused the downturn, but that Joe Biden was responsible for the recovery. I mean, you just don't know. I mean, it happened with Reagan and I assure you that it was not Reagan that did it. It was just, he was in the right place at the right time and he came through it. Let's face it. If you're Calvin Coolidge, that's one thing. If you're Herbert Hoover, that's another thing. You know, Calvin Coolidge looked like a genius in the roaring twenties. Herbert Hoover looked like a moron by the time it got to 1930. So it just depends where you happen to be at the time. And all I am saying though is this, there's some weakness coming and just keep an eye on it. It's there and I showed you the high yield bonds. That's a really good example of what's going on out here. And so take a look at that and, you know, I'll update you on it. And if this thing caves in next week, you'll know where you heard it. And in the meantime, we all just need to go to wenties. That's it. Get out of here. It's time, you know, go to wenties, get some good food. Then you can go get some jewelry over at 4506 Hampton. And then after you got your jewelry and you're completely fed, you can go get yourself a brand new suit. And meanwhile, I'm Mark Casean. This is Showdown.